Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

[HFM]

Date : 4th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th May 2018.

FX News Today
European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 0.3 bp at 0.531% in opening trade, the 2-year is trading unchanged at -0.599%. Peripherals are outperforming again while European stock futures are moving higher at the start of the session, against losses in U.S. futures after a weaker session in Asia overnight. U.S. jobs data rather than ongoing trade talks between China and the U.S. seem the main focus for markets today. The local calendar has the final reading of April services PMIs as well as March retail sales data.

FX Update: The dollar has remained in a consolidation after pulling back from recent trend highs. EURUSD has remained settled in the upper 1.1900s after posting a new four-month low at 1.1937 on Wednesday. Rebound gains above 1.2000 have so far proved fleeting. USDJPY has settled to an orbit of the 109.00 level after correcting from the 11-week high seen yesterday at 110.03. The move reflects a broader correction in the dollar following the less hawkish than anticipated post-FOMC meeting statement from the Fed on Wednesday and a position-trimming and/or hedging dynamic ahead of the U.S. jobs report, which is generally expected to be strong but, as always, carries a degree of two-way risk for market participants. Regarding the U.S. payrolls report, they are expected at a solid 210k headline rise, though risks are to the upside following tight initial claims data and remarkable strength in consumer confidence and vehicle sales data.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• German Services – Expectations – unchanged at 54.1 and composite at 55.3.

• Eurozone Services – Expectations – Markit Services PMI expected at 55.0, leaving the composite at 55.2.

• Speeches out of Fed’s Dudley and Quarles, FOMC Williams and German Buda President Weidmann

• NFP data – Expectations – US April payrolls expected at 192k, upside risk given claims, while jobless rate is estimated to slip to 4.0% from 4.1%, which would be the lowest since December 2000. Average hourly earnings should rise 0.2%, for a y/y gain of 2.7%, steady from March.

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 7th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 7th May 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week
Global growth has clearly moderated in 2018. And rising interest rates, geopolitical risks, and possible trade headwinds exacerbated worries. Many key reports have disappointed so far this year, including the March and April U.S. jobs report, Q1 UK GDP, retail sales, and various regional PMIs. Fears over real shooting wars with North Korea, Syria, Iran and possible involvement with Russia, hit business and consumer sentiment hard, while angst over a trade war has impacted too. One major result from the slide in momentum is that it will keep central bank normalization at bay.

United States: The U.S. jobs report disappointed on nearly every metric, and especially in the service sector. The April CPI (Thursday) is expected to rise 0.2% following a 0.1% dip in March, which was largely due to the 2.8% drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, core CPI should rise 0.2% as well, supported by ongoing gains in shelter and housing. The y/y rate should edge up to 2.2% from 2.1% in March, which would be the highest since a similar gain in February 2017. April PPI (Wednesday) also is expected to rise 0.2% overall and for the core, after 0.3% increases for both in March. The annual rates would slow to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y for the headline, and 2.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y for the core.

Fedspeakers are back now that the FOMC is out of the way and Earnings remain a focal point.

Canada: April employment highlights this week’s calendar. The jobs report (Friday) is seen revealing a 25.0k rise after the 32.3k gain in March. The unemployment rate should hold at a 40-year low 5.8%. Housing starts (Tuesday) are expected to expand at a 220.0k unit pace in April from the 225.2k in March. Building permit values (Wednesday) are expected to fall 1.0% in March after the 2.6% gain in February. The March new home price index (Thursday) is projected to slip 0.1% after the 0.2% decline in February.

Europe: Data releases focus mainly on Germany. German March manufacturing orders are seen rising 0.5% m/m after 0.3% m/m in the previous month, confirming that the manufacturing sector remains robust for now, although with the earlier timing of the Easter holidays the forecast comes with a larger error margin and downside risks. This is even more true for March industrial production numbers (Tuesday), which include construction and energy production. We are looking for a rebound of 0.5% m/m after the weather related -1.6 m/m contraction in February. German trade data is also due and we expect data to back expectations for a marked slowdown in German GDP growth to just around 0.3% q/q in Q1.

UK: The week ahead is highlighted by the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (announcing Thursday) – no change expected following the plethora of weak data especially Q1 GDP. The data calendar brings the April BRC retails sales report (Tuesday), which we expect to show a contraction of 0.8% m/m, which would payback for the strong 1.4% m/m gain in March, and March industrial production and trade numbers (both Thursday). We expect industrial production to rise 0.2% m/m (median 0.1%) after 0.1% m/m growth in the month prior.

Japan: March personal income and PCE data are due (Tuesday), with the latter seen up 1.0% from the prior 0.1% increase. The March current account surplus (Thursday) should widen to JPY 2,800 bln from 2,076 bln. April bank loan figures are also due (Thursday).

China: April trade report (Tuesday) is expected to reveal a $20.0 surplus, versus the previous $33.7 bln surplus. April inflation (Thursday) should show CPI slipping to a 2.0% y/y from 2.1%, while April PPI should warm to 3.5% from 3.1%.

Australia: Retail sales (Tuesday) are expected to rise 0.3% in March after the 0.6% gain in February. Housing finance (Friday) is seen growing 1.0% in March after the 0.2% dip in February.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 8th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 8th May 2018.

FX News Today
Asian Wrap: Stock markets remained underpinned during the Asian session, as concerns about global trade ease and 10 year Treasury yields hold below 3%. Oil prices remain in focus ahead of Trump’s decision on the future of the trade accord with Iran. Oil prices are trading marginally below the USD 70 per barrel mark. The 10-year Treasury yield is up 0.4 bp at 2.953%, 10-year JGBs are up 0.6 bp at 0.041%. U.S. and U.K. stock futures are moving higher and in Asia Chinese markets outperformed again as optimism on future trade returns. The CSI 300 is up 1.08%, the Hang Seng gained 1.24%, while Nikkei and Topix are up 0.21% and 0.09% respectively.

German Data – Trade Surplus Increased & Strong Industrial Production: Germany posted a sa trade surplus of EUR 22.0 bln in March, up from EUR 19.4 bln in the previous month, largely thanks to a rebound in exports, which rose 1.7% m/m, after two consecutive months of contraction. Imports declined for a third month. The March number left the accumulated surplus for the first quarter at EUR 63.1 bln, down from EUR 64.2 bln in the last quarter of 2017 and suggesting that net exports didn’t contribute much to overall growth in Q1. German industrial production stronger than expected. Production rebounded 1.0% m/m in March from the -1.6% m/m contraction in the previous month. There was a broad rebound across all manufacturing groups, energy production expanded again and construction rose 0.6% m/m, after falling -3.1% m/m in the previous month, which confirms that the bad weather was largely to blame for the weak February numbers.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• TRUMP Speech – Expectations – He will announce that the USA is leaving the Iran deal or as a minimum, extending the deadline. All of which is OIL price positive.

• Australian Federal Budget Release – Expectations – Some tax Relief for low income families and businesses, plus significant infrastructure spending.

• Speeches out of the Fed’s Powell – “Monetary Policy and Capital Flows” – one to watch direct implications for potential future policy

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 9th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 9th May 2018.

FX News Today
European Outlook: Bund yields quickly backed up from opening lows and the 10-year is now up 0.8 bp on the day at 0.566%, Italian 10-year yields also continue to rise amid ongoing election jitters, after jumping 10 bp yesterday. Curves continue to steepen as the short end outperforms. European stock futures are mixed, with GER30 and UK100 moving higher as Sterling and Pound continue to decline against the dollar, with the UK100 shrugging off a slump in BRC retail sales in April. Oil prices are back up above USD 70 per barrel, but the overall reaction to Trump’s confirmation that the U.S. will pull out of the Iran nuclear deal has been limited so far. Still to come Norway and Sweden release inflation data, France has production numbers for March.

FX Update: The dollar has traded firmer, led by a 0.5% rise in USDJPY after the Tokyo fixing today. The USD index is showing a 0.2% gain, posting a new four-month high at 93.34, and EURUSD logged a fresh 2018 low at 1.1830. USDJPY lifted above 109.50 for the first time since last Thursday after breaking out of a narrow consolidation around the 109.00 level. EURJPY and AUDJPY also rebounded out of respective trend lows that were posted yesterday amid a pronounced bout of yen selling that was seen in Tokyo. As expected, President Trump announced that the U.S. was pulling out of the international nuclear deal with Iran, though market fallout had been muted so far. Both Tehran and other signatories have indicated that there is a possibility that the deal could remain effective, subject to discussions in the coming weeks, which has helped limit any fallout. Oil prices have gained, but have remained below the trend highs seen on Monday, and stock markets have been mostly near flat.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• CAD Building Permits – Expectations – expected to rise 0.2% overall and for the core (medians same), after 0.3% increases for both in March. The annual rates would slow to 2.7% y/y from 3.0% y/y for the headline, and 2.4% y/y from 2.7% y/y for the core.

• US PPI and core PPI – Expectations – PPI is expected to rise 0.2% in April. Goods prices are anticipated to be down around 0.1% and Services prices should rise 0.3%.

• Crude Oil Inventories

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 10th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 10th May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.9 bp and back below the 3% mark at 2.98% as tensions in the middle East rise. 10-year JGB yields meanwhile picked up 0.2 bp to 0.043%, as stock markets moved higher and the yen declined. Automakers and banks underpinned Japanese indices and a weaker yen, saw Nikkei rising 0.38%. Stocks are cautiously higher across other Asian markets as well. The Hang Seng outperformed and moved up 0.81% and the CSI 300 is up 0.16%. North Korean tensions seem to be easing, but tensions in the middle East are building and oil prices are up and the WTI future is trading at USD 71.63 per barrel, as Israel said it struck targets in Syria after Iranian forces fired missiles at the Golan Heights.

FX Update: USDJPY edged out an eight-day high at 109.92 during the Tokyo session, but left the recent trend high at 110.03 unchallenged. The yen maintained a relatively soft tone amid a backdrop of stock market gains on Wall Street and in Asia. Oil prices, meanwhile, logged a new 42-month high. EURUSD’s downtrend, now in its fourth consecutive week, extended again yesterday, with the pair logging a fresh 2018 nadir at 1.1822. Cable has been making time in the mid 1.3500s, consolidating into today’s BoE policy announcement after posting a four-month low at 1.3484. After a run of sub-forecast data there is now a strong consensus for the BoE to refrain from hiking today. USDCAD traded softer over the last day after yesterday posting a seven-week high at 1.2997. The pair has settled in the lower 1.2800s. The surge in oil prices has returned some demand for the Canadian dollar given the benefit to Canada’s terms of trade. The NZD came under some pressure after the RBNZ delivered an expected unchanged policy announcement, leaving the cash rate at 1.75%, but added guidance that it would remained unchanged for a “considerable” period. NZD-USD logged a five-month low at 0.6902.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• BOE Monetary Policy Summary – Expectations – BoE expected to leave the repo rate at 0.50% and the nascent tightening cycle in limbo after the BoE tightened for the first time in over a decade last November, though it is widely expected a hike to come in August. A Reuters poll, published just earlier, found 59 out of 62 economists expecting the BoE to hold policy unchanged. This compares to the survey Reuters published on April 18th that found 69 of 76 expecting a 25 bp rate hike.

• MPC Bank Rate Votes – Expectations – 7 Votes for the rate to remain at 0.5%, while 2 for a Rate hike.

• BOE’s Governor Carney speech

• US CPI & Core CPI – Expectations – The April CPI is expected to rise 0.3% following a 0.1% dip in March, which was largely due to the 2.8% drop in energy prices. Meanwhile, core CPI should rise 0.2% as well, supported by ongoing gains in shelter and housing.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 11th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 11th May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Asian stock mostly moved higher, after a good close in the U.S. which was underpinned by a tame inflation report that reduced pressure on the Fed to tighten again. The Nikkei is up 0.93%, the Topix gained 0.77% and the Hang Seng is up 1.31%. Mainland Chinese bourses underperformed and the CSI is down -0.20%, but overall a solid result in Asia and the MSCI Asia Pacific Index is heading for the best week since February, as U.S. yields and USD retreated. U.S. stock futures are also moving higher in tandem with U.K. futures. Treasury yields meanwhile have come up slightly from the post inflation lows and the 10-year is up 0.2 bp at 2.964%, while 10-year JGB’s are down -0.1 bp at 0.039%.

FX Update: USDJPY is near net unchanged on the day so far. There has been some chop, with the pair posting an intraday high of 109.57 before taking a near 40-pip tumble to a 109.19 low at the Tokyo fixing (00:50 GMT). USD-JPY subsequently recouped to around 109.50, fractionally up on the day’s opening levels. There have been no data or developments of note out of Japan today. The uptrend that commenced from sub-105.0 levels looks to have lost thrust. The U.S. yield curve is now the flattest its been since 2007, with long dated yields coming off while short end yields remain elevated, pricing in Fed tightening over the next year. With a lot baked in with regard to expected Fed tightening, and with high oil prices looking to sustain and related geopolitical uncertainties rising in prominence — U.S. versus Iran relations in particular, but also Venezuela’s collapsing oil industry and trade tensions — there looks to be a growing chance for USD-JPY to correct lower, driven by a retreat in the dollar and/or safe haven demand for the yen.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• CAD Jobs Numbers – Expectations – expected to slip to 17.4k from big beat last month at 32.3k. Unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 5.8%

• US UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations – both expected to slip from 98.8 and 2.7% respectively

• Draghi Speech – Little monetary policy implications at scheduled speech in Florence but you never can tell.

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 14th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th May 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week
Stocks have regained their footing in early May as the plethora of worries which knocked global equities lower to start the year have faded. Concerns over a more aggressive Fed tightening stance, fears over rising price pressures, worries over a slowing in growth and possible recession, uncertainty over a trade war, not to mention geopolitics and the angst over N. Korea, have all eased, though unilateral reimposition of Iran sanctions by the U.S. have contributed to fresh trend highs on WTI crude above $71 bbl. Yet investors have refocused on earnings, which have been stellar. Specifically, a less hawkish tone from the FOMC, softening in inflation data, and indications of strengthening in U.S. Q2 GDP growth to 3%, have added to the bullish tone on stocks, even as the dollar rally has paused to digest these developments and the cooler Fed outlook.

United States: This week’s U.S. economic calendar will feature updates on retail sales, producer sentiment, housing starts, industrial production and business inventories. Overall the data should be positive, with retail activity estimated to extend the prior month’s gains, producer sentiment remaining strong, and housing starts still at a respectable pace. Industrial production growth should remain strong in Q2, following out-sized Q4 and Q1 gains. Inventories, should extend their rising trend in March as well, and may modestly subtract from GDP growth in Q2.

Canada: In Canada CPI (Friday) highlights a busy calendar. Total CPI is expected to jump 0.5% in April (m/m, NSA) after the 0.3% gain in March, as gasoline prices surged. The CPI is seen accelerating to a 2.5% y/y pace in April from the 2.3% y/y clip in March. The BoC has expressed comfort with the pop in CPI, which has been above the 2.0% target mid-point since February, as the fall-off in temporary factors (previously restraining CPI) and minimum wage hikes provide what they see as a temporary boost. Manufacturing shipment values (Wednesday) are projected to gain 2.0% in March after the 1.9% gain in February. Retail sales (Friday) are seen growing 0.3% in March after the 0.4% rise in February. Bank of Canada Deputy Governor Schembri speaks (Wednesday) on “Reaching our Potential: Challenges and Opportunities. His speech is available on the BoC’s website at 12:00 ET.

Europe: The ECB remains on course to phase out QE by the end of the year come what may, but this will only end the ongoing expansion of the central bank’s balance sheet; it still leaves officials with the task of scaling back support and returning policy back to normal. However, while rates are expected to be finally lifted next year, officials have turned cautious after a run of weak data. With that in mind the majority of this week’s data is too backward looking to really change the overall outlook. Against that background comments from ECB officials, including Draghi, Coeure, Praet (all Wednesday) and Constancio (Thursday) are all likely to sound cautiously optimistic on the growth outlook, while admitting ongoing uncertainties and risks.

The main focus on the data front is German ZEW investor confidence for May. Meanwhile, the first reading of German Q1 GDP (Tuesday) is likely to show a marked deceleration in the quarterly growth rate to just 0.3% q/q , versus 0.6% q/q in Q4 last year. This would pretty much mirror developments in other major Eurozone economies and leave the overall Eurozone GDP number (also Tuesday), on course to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q , unchanged from the preliminary reading and also sharply lower than in Q4. Again, there is a lot of noise in the data and the main question not just for the ECB is now whether this is due to temporary factors, or the sign of a broader downtrend in growth. Inflation numbers meanwhile are backward looking and Italian April HICP expected (Tuesday), to be confirmed at 0.6% y/y, the German HICP rate (Wednesday) at 1.4% y/y and the overall Eurozone rate (Wednesday) at 1.2% y/y. Core inflation fell back to just 0.7% y/y in April, but that was impacted by base effects with services price inflation falling back earlier than last year from the Easter spike. The calendar also has Eurozone trade (Thursday) and current account (Friday), but that will be overshadowed by the second GDP reading.

UK: Last week’s unchanged monetary policy decision from the BoE, the trimming of GDP and CPI forecasts, and the wary-but-still upbeat tone of MPC members, all met expectations, near enough. The calendar this week is quiet, highlighted by monthly BoE labour data (Tuesday). The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at the multi-decade low of 4.2% . Average household income is expected to rise 2.6% y/y in the with-bonus figure and to a new cycle high rate of 2.9% y/y in the three months to March, which should keep BoE tightening expectations alive.

Japan: Tuesday brings the March tertiary industry index, which is penciled in at -0.3% versus the prior unchanged outcome. Preliminary Q1 GDP (Wednesday) is forecast at up 0.1% from the previous 1.6% increase. Revised March industrial production is due Wednesday as well. March machine orders (Thursday) are expected down 2.0% from the 2.1% previous rise. National April CPI (Friday) is forecast at up 0.6% y/y from up 1.1% overall, and up 0.7% y/y from 0.9% on a core basis.

China: April fixed investment (Tuesday) should be up 7.5% y/y as it was in March. April industrial production (Tuesday) is seen up 6.5% y.y from 6.0%, while April retail sales are penciled in at up 10.2% from 10.1%.

Australia: The wage cost index (Wednesday) is expected to rise 0.6% in Q1 (q/q, sa) after the matching 0.6% gain in Q4. Employment (Thursday) is seen rising 10.0k in April after the 4.9k gain in March. The unemployment rate is projected at 5.5%, identical to March. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s minutes to the May meeting are due Tuesday. RBA Deputy Governor Debelle (Tuesday)will discuss “The Outlook for the Australian Economy” at the CFO Forum 2018 in Sydney. Deputy Governor Debelle (also Tuesday) speaks on “Interest Rate Benchmark Reform” at the ISDA forum, Hong Kong via video link.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 18th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 18th May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are unchanged on the day at 3.11%, 10-year JGBs marginally higher at 0.052% despite a dip in CPI inflation and long yields were mixed elsewhere across Asia. Stocks also struggled for direction. Topix and Nikkei managed gains of 0.31% each, the Hang Seng is up 0.19%, but the CSI 300 slightly down, Shanghai com and Shenzhen Comp narrowly mixed. Treasury yields near 2011 highs continue to weigh on investor sentiment, but U.S. stock futures are higher amid reports that China offered the US a USD 200 bln reduction in the bilateral trade gap. Oil prices are holding near the 2014 highs amid mounting signs of shrinking stock piles and the front end WTI future is at USD 71.61 per barrel.

FX Update: The yen have traded softer into the London interbank open, which saw USDJPY touch 111.00 for the first time since January while concurrently lifting yen crosses. AUDJPY, for instance, clocked a one-month high. A dip in Japanese inflation data weighed on the yen. Headline April CPI fell to a rate of 0.6% y/y from 1.1% y/y in March, while core CPI ebbed to 0.7% y/y from 0.9% y/y. The outcomes undershot market expectations, and should maintain the BoJ’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy. EUR-USD, meanwhile, lifted back above 1.1800, though remain well off yesterday’s high at 1.1837. AUDUSD and Cable also gained, though similarly remained comfortably below the previous day’s peak. The surge in U.S. yields should keep the dollar a buy-on-dips trade.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• EU Trade Balance – expected at 20.7 B surplus slightly below the previous reading at 21 B.

• Canadian CPI – Expectations – CPI is expected to grow 0.4% (m/m, nsa) in April after the 0.3% gain in March. The CPI is projected to grow at a 2.3% y/y pace in April, matching the 2.3% rate of increase in March. The 2.3 y/y clip in March was the fastest rate since the 2.4% pace in October of 2014.

• Canadian Retail Sales – Expectations – Retail sales are expected to rise 0.3% in March after the 0.4% gain in February. The ex-autos sales aggregate is projected to rise 0.5% in March after the flat reading in February. The CPI’s gasoline price index rose 2.9% in March after the 0.7% dip in February. Hence, gasoline station sales should provide a boost to total and ex-autos sales retail sales.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 21st May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 21st May 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week
Global yields have been on the rise all year, with Treasuries leading the upswing in core markets. The 10-year T-note has climbed 65 bps year-to-date, to 3.05%, and tested 3.12% late in the week. Italy paced the action on the week, however, jumping 30 bps. Numerous factors have served to boost rates, including global growth, inflation expectations, tighter monetary policy, fiscal policy angst, and supply. And rising rates are roiling the markets. Interest rates will remain in the spotlight this week, with Treasury supply, inflation data, and geopolitics all possibly increasing yield further.

United States: Recent strength in U.S. economic data has suggested the slowing in Q1 growth was temporary, and that’s added to the bearish turn in interest rates. Upcoming reports will be monitored for further evidence of the Q2 improvement. Housing data tops this week’s releases, including new (Wednesday) and existing home sales for April (Tuesday), and will provide some insight on how this sector is faring in Q2. Also, reports on April durable goods orders (Friday), May Markit PMIs, and the May KC Fed index will give a current view on manufacturing. The FOMC minutes to the May 1, 2 policy meeting (Wednesday) will help clarify the Fed’s stress on its “symmetric” stance on inflation, and the degree to which Committee members will tolerate above target inflation. Supply factors in prominently too with a record $99 bln in shorter dated coupons to be auctioned.

Canada: In Canada, the markets are closed on Monday in observance of the Victoria Day holiday. The holiday shortened week is thin on data and events. March wholesale trade shipments (Tuesday)are expected to rise 0.5% in March after the 0.8% drop in February. This is the final input into the March GDP forecast. A 0.2% GDP gain in March (m/m, sa) is expected after the 0.4% surge in February, as the economy resumes making headway after the temporary set-back in January that saw GDP fall 0.1%. There is nothing from Bank of Canada this week.

Europe: It may be a decisive week for the Eurozone and the outlook for the ECB. Various PMI reports, and Ifo readings for May will hopefully bring more clarity on the question whether the slowdown in overall growth in Q1 was mainly driven by temporary factors, or it is the start of a larger down-shift in growth momentum. Even if confidence data stabilizes, as expected, there are still plenty of risks emanating from geopolitics, along with protectionist tendencies, Brexit wrangling, and now of course Italy. There, the populists, who are preparing to take over the government, have agreed spending programs that will not only see Italian debt spiking higher, but will not address the country’s underlying problems it will also set it on collision course with the ECBs and Eurozone peers.

An effective stabilization in Eurozone PMI readings for May (Wednesday) and an improvement in the manufacturing reading to 56.4 from 56.2, the services reading is seen falling back to 54.5 from 45.7, which should lead the composite at 55.1, versus 55.1 in April. The German Ifo Business Climate reading (Thursday) is also expected to stabilize and an unchanged headline reading is expected of 102.1 versus 102.1 in the previous month, with expectations seen falling back slightly, but the current conditions indicator expected to improve after the holiday related noise in previous months. French national business confidence (Thursday) and German GfK consumer confidence (Thursday) are also seen unchanged over the month, while Eurozone consumer confidence (Wednesday) is expected to improve to 0.5 from 0.4.The forward looking confidence readings will likely overshadow the second release of German Q1 GDP numbers (Thursday), which will bring the full breakdown.

UK: A flurry of data releases looms on the calendar this week, highlighted by the April inflation report (Wednesday), April retail sales (Thursday), and the second estimate for Q1 GDP (Friday). Monthly government borrowing data (Tuesday) and the May CBI surveys for industrial trends and distributive sales (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively) are also up. A headline CPI at 2.5% y/y is expected, which would match the prior month’s figure, which itself had undershot both the market and BoE expectation. As for retail sales, it is anticipated a 0.8% m/m rise in April, rebounding after a steep 1.2% decline in March, while Q1 GDP expected to come in unrevised from the preliminary release outcomes of 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y. On the Brexit front, negotiations and solution brainstorming continue at pace, and while lately causing some confusion, the overall position should become clearer as the year draws on

Japan: The March all-industry index (Wednesday) is penciled in rising 0.2% on the month versus the previous 0.4% increase. May Tokyo CPI is forecast rising at a 0.6% y/y clip from 0.5% overall, and unchanged from April at up 0.6% y/y on a core basis.

Australia: The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Lowe (Wednesday) speaks at the Australia-China Relations Institute in Sydney. The Bank’s Assistant Governor (Financial Sector) Bullock speaks (Thursday) at the De Nederlandsche Bank Housing Market Seminar in Amsterdam. The data calendar is sparse, with Q1 construction work done (Wednesday) featuring.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 22nd May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 22nd May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields dropped -0.5 bp to 3.054% overnight, 10-year JGB yields lost most of their earlier gains and are at 0.044% and elsewhere across Asia long yields are mostly down as stock markets struggled without fresh new on Sino-American trade in holiday hit trade. Hong Kong and South Korean markets were shut for Buddha’s Birthday and elsewhere across Asia markets yesterday’s recovery fizzled out. Nikkei lost -0.23% as the Yen strengthened and despite reassurance of ongoing monetary stimulus from the BoJ. U.S. stock futures are still slightly higher. Oil prices are up and the WTI future trading at USD 72.49 per barrel.European stock futures are mixed, with the GER30 outperforming in catch up trade after yesterday’s holiday and aided by a weaker EUR. The UK100 future meanwhile is heading south after a largely weaker session in Asia. Today’s calendar focuses on the U.K., which has public finance data, the CBI industrial trends survey as well as a number of BoE speakers.

FX Action: USDJPY has traded moderately softer during the Tokyo session, retreating below 111.00. This interrupts a run higher that yesterday left a four-month high at 111.39. EURJPY and AUDJPY, among other yen crosses, are also softer today. Stock markets in Asia have been mixed-to-lower today. BoJ-speak from the Governor Kuroda and Deputy Governor Wakatabe today reaffirmed commitment to monetary stimulus, with the former saying the central bank is aiming to lift CPI to the 2% target as soon as possible and the latter saying that target can be achieved with prevailing policy. The remarks follow Friday’s weak CPI data of Japan, where headline April CPI fell to 0.6% y/y from 1.1% y/y in March and core CPI ebbed to 0.7% y/y from 0.9% y/y. The outcomes undershot market expectations, and have maintained expectations for the BoJ’s ultra-accommodative monetary policy to sustain. A Reuters survey of market economists earlier last week found that over half of respondents were expecting the central bank to refrain from exiting stimulative policy until 2020.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• Speeches: MPC Member Vlieghe, MPC Member Saunders, BOE Gov. Carney and BOE Remsden

• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing – Expectations – at 7.1B pounds deficit in April from the 0.3B surplus seen in March.

• UK Inflation Report Hearings

Support and Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 23nd May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 23nd May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields declined as risk aversion picked up and stock market retreated in Asia. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -0.9 bp at 3.050%, the 10-year JGB down 0.4 bp at 0.037%. Stock markets headed south, with Japanese markets underperforming as the yen advanced and the focus returned global risks including the U.S.-North Korea summit and Turkey financial market stability. Nikkei and Topix are down -0.64% and -1.14% respectively. The Hang Seng lost -1.02%, the CSI 300 is down -0.84%. U.S. futures are also heading south and oil prices pulled back from highs over USD 72 per barrel and it is trading at USD 71.92. European stock futures are declining in tandem with U.S. futures after a largely negative session for equities in Asia overnight. The good news for the Eurozone is that peripherals have so far not been hit and the Italian 10-year yield is down -2.4 bp, the Spanish down -1.5 bp in early trade. The calendar has Eurozone PMI readings, as well as U.K. inflation data, a German Schatz auction and the U.K. CBI retailing survey.

FX Action: The yen outperformed as risk aversion flared up in global markets, while the dollar, outside the case of USDJPY, traded mostly firmer, gaining ground on the euro, sterling and dollar bloc currencies, for instance. EURUSD settled back in the mid 1.1700s after yesterday’s recovery gains stalled above 1.1800. EURJPY dropped sharply, to an eight-day low at 129.70, while USDJPY posted a four-session low of 110.37 in Tokyo, extending the correction from Monday’s four-month high at 111.39. A risk-off sentient, supportive of the yen in accordance with the typical correlative pattern, came amid a cocktail of geopolitical concerns. In the mix was U.S. President Trump saying that that there was a “very substantial chance” of the North Korean summit being delayed. The recent dive in the Turkish lira also mutated into a full nosedive in thin market conditions just ahead of the Tokyo session, posting fresh record lows. Concerns about excessive dictatorial control of Turkey’s economic policies have been negatively impacting the lira. In data, Japan’s March all industry activity index undershoot expectations at 0.0% m/m. The median had been for 0.1% m/m growth. Australian construction data also missed expectations.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• Eurozone PMIs – Expectations – Central bankers will watch this month’s round of confidence data with special interest and hopes that data will show signs that growth is recovering in the second quarter, after the slowdown in Q1 that was impacted by special factors. An effective stabilization is expected to be seen in Eurozone PMI readings for May and an improvement in the manufacturing reading to 56.4 from 56.2. The services reading meanwhile seen falling back to 54.5 from 54.7

• RBA Gov Lowe Speech

• UK CPI, PPI & Retail Index – Expectations – CPI at 2.5% y/y and core at 2.2% y/y, which would match the prior month’s figure, which itself had undershot both the market and BoE expectation. The PPI is expected at 1% in April from -0.1% seen last month, while Retail Price Index expected at 0.5% in April from 0.1% in March.

• US Prel. PMIs – Expectations – Composite PMI for May expected at 55.0 from 54.9, while Services expected at 54.9 from 54.6.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 24th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th May 2018.

FX News Today

European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields quickly recovered opening losses and are now up 0.7 bp at 0.510%, as peripheral bond markets rally led by Italy. The 10-year BTP yield is down -7.9 bp at a still high 2.310%. Spanish and Portuguese 10-year yields are also sharply lower. Reports that Five Star is considering an alternative finance minister to Savona, who promotes Italy’s exit from the euro may be helping. Stock futures meanwhile are mostly heading south in Europe, in tandem with U.S. futures and after a largely negative session in Asia. Released at the start of the session German Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q, and GfK consumer confidence fell back. Still to come the U.K. has retail sales data, ECB’s Praet and BoE’s Carney are scheduled to speak and the ECB publishes the latest Financial Stability Report.

FX Action: Yen out performance has once again been seen, driving USDJPY to a 10-day low of 109.33 and pushing EURJPY further into 10-month low territory. Belligerent rhetoric from North Korea and reports that the Trump administration is mulling a 25% levy on imported cars have provided some added fuel to risk aversion in global markets, which has maintained a safe haven bid for the Japanese currency. The dollar has also remained broadly buoyant, though has steadied off highs seen yesterday versus most currencies. EURUSD posted a fresh five-month low at 1.1675 during the New York PM session yesterday before recouping above 1.1700 following the release of the FOMC minutes to the early May meeting showed the Fed is in no hurry to tighten. Fed funds futures gained a little on the minutes, and were still fully pricing in a 25 bp rate hike in June while showing about odds of about 75% for a further quarter-point hike move in September. Italy will remain in the spotlight and the risk remains that we see further paroxysms in Italian markets as investors digest the formulating policies proposals of the anti-establishment and Eurosceptic coalition government.

German GDP & Consumer Confidence: German Q1 GDP was confirmed at 0.3% q/q as expected, leaving the working day adjusted annual rate at 2.3% y/y. The focus was on the breakdown, which was released for the first time and showed a clearer picture on why growth slowed so dramatically compared to the 0.7% q/q rate in Q4 last year. What the data showed were negative contributions from net exports, stock changes as well as government consumption, with the latter contracting -0.5% q/q in Q1, likely due partly to the political vacuum and the long period without a fully functioning government following the inconclusive election last year. Investment contributed 0.2% points to the quarterly growth rate, private consumption -0.2% points, net exports detracted -0.1% as export growth corrected -1.1% q/q, after rising a very strong 2.6% q/q in Q4 last year. The strong EUR may partly be to blame.

German GfK consumer confidence fell to 10.7 with the advanced reading for June, down from 10.8 in the previous month and the second consecutive dip. The index peaked at 11 in February, but remains at very high levels. Still, the full breakdown for May showed a marked decline in the willingness to buy despite an improvement in income expectations. The willingness to save meanwhile declined. Q1 GDP data today still showed a positive contribution from consumption to overall growth, but the GfK numbers at least signal some slowdown ahead.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• UK Retail Sales – Expectations – Likely to show a pick up (from 0.7% from a dire -1.2% in March) but questions remain this be sustainable through to the summer and remainder of Q2.

• US Initial Claims – Expectations – A 2k decline to 220k is expected for new claims with continuing claims rising to 1.754 million.

• Plethora of Speeches – Dudley, Carney, Praet, Bostic, & Harker – possibly of some surprises and volatility for USD, EUR and GBP simply from the number of speeches on tap today

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Stuart Cowell
Senior Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 25th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Long yields broadly corrected across Asia, and 10-year JGB yields dropped 0.5 bp to 0.034%, as stock markets struggled with geopolitics back on the agenda after Trump cancelled the North Korea summit. Pyongyang seemed to offer an olive branch and Asian markets are up from earlier lows while U.S. futures are posting gains. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are still down -0.44% and -0.11%. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.22% and down -0.14% respectively, as a weaker yen added some support. Treasury yields gained 1.1 bp and are at 2.988%, still clearly below recent highs. Oil prices fell after Russia’s energy minister suggested that OPEC and its partners will discuss the phasing out of supply curbs at next month’s meeting and the WTI future is trading below USD 71 per barrel.

FX Update: The dollar has returned to form, nudging higher versus the euro and yen, and most other currencies. EURUSD is pressing on 1.1700 as the London interbank gets up an running, putting Wednesday’s six-month low at 1.1675 back in the crosshairs. The Fed remains on a tightening track while the sentiment towards the Eurozone is being marred by Italy. USDJPY has recovered to the 109.50 area from yesterday’s 17-day low at 108.95. The lift has reflected part broader dollar firmness and par broader yen weakness. Stock markets recovered some poise Asia, and U.S. equity index futures also lifted some following a shaky session on Wall Street yesterday when the Trump administration cancelled the planned summit with North Korea. Pyongyang said today that it would still be willing to meet with the U.S. There are also reports that Mexico has made an offer to the U.S. in a bid to seal the NAFTA renegotiation.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – expected to stabilize, but comes with a downside bias now after the weak PMI round. The forecasts had been for an unchanged headline reading of 102.1 versus 102.1 in the previous month, with expectations seen falling back slightly, but the current conditions indicator was expected to improve after the holiday related noise in previous months.

• UK Second Estimate GDP – Expectations – Unchanged at 0.1% q/q and 1.2% y/y.

• US Durable Goods – Expectations – A 4% decline is expected for April, down to -1.4% from 2.6% in March

• Plethora of Speeches – RBA Assist Gov Bullock, BOE Gov Carney, Fed Chair Powell, FOMC Member Bostic, & German Buba President Weidmann – possibly of some surprises and volatility for AUD, USD, EUR and GBP simply from the number of speeches on tap today.

Support & Resistance Levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 28th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 28th May 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week

Geopolitics reared its ugly head again, knocking core sovereign yields lower, while elevating those on the periphery especially in Europe. Mixed messages between Kim and Trump kept markets on their toes about the diplomatic climate between North Korea and the U.S., after the summit was called off, then possibly back on again. Along with worries over Korea and China, concerns about Turkey, Italy and now Spain, have resurfaced. Even against U.S. allies, a 25% tariff on auto imports was floated, leading to concerns that global growth could be compromised down the road.

United States: The week of May 28 will be a busy, holiday-shortened one in the U.S., with a slew of data releases after the return from the long Memorial Weekend. The focus will be squarely on the April jobs report after recent readings have fallen short of expectations, but in April the gain is expected to be in line with the year-to-date average. Front and center will be Nonfarm payrolls (Friday), expected to rise 195,000 in May, following a weaker-than-expected April gain of 164,000. The unemployment rate is estimated to be steady at 3.9%. Consumer confidence should be 128.0 in May (Tuesday), down only slightly from a strong 128.7 reading in April and the 17-year high of 130.0 in February. MBA mortgage market applications are due (Wednesday), along with the ADP employment survey seen rising 200k in May from 204k in April. Advanced trade indicators deficit may widen to -$70.5 in April (Wednesday) from $68.3 bln, along with a second update on Q1 GDP. Personal income is expected to rise 0.3% in April (Thursday), following a similar gain in the prior month, while PCE may rise 0.4%. Initial jobless claims are set to fall 8k to 226k in the week ended May 26, following the prior pop to 234k from 222k in the week of May 12. Chicago PMI is due, in addition to NAR pending home sales seen rising to 108.2 in April from 107.6 and delayed EIA inventory data (due to holiday).

Canada: The BOC’s announcement (Wednesday) is front and center this week. No change to the current 1.25% policy setting is expected alongside a maintenance of their gradualist tone, with a likely reiteration that they “will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.” As for data that will guide the Bank of Canada, this week has real Q1 GDP (Thursday), March GDP also due Thursday, the current account and the industrial product price index on Wednesday, and the march average weekly earnings on Thursday.

Europe: The ECB is heading for difficult times as political jitters in Italy, and now Spain, threaten to destabilize markets, just as inflation is expected to finally move higher and vindicate the ECB’s move towards policy normalization. So far, the ECB taken the uptick in Italian yields with apparent calm, but if turbulence increases and deepens pressure on Draghi to try and step in with verbal intervention, volatility will intensify.

At the same time, this week’s round of preliminary may inflation data is expected to show an uptick in headline rates, that will back the ECB’s move towards a phasing out of QE. May numbers should bring us closer to “normal”. German HICP (Wednesday) is seen rising to 1.8% y/y from 1.4% y/y, the French rate (Wednesday) to 2.0% y/y from 1.8% y/y and the Italian headline rate (Thursday) to 0.9% y/y, which should bring the Eurozone HICP (Thursday) to 1.6% y/y – up from 1.2% y/y in the previous month. The ESI Economic Confidence (Wednesday) is seen falling back just slightly to 112.5 from 112.7 in the previous month, signalling a slowdown in growth momentum, but not to an extent that would worry the ECB unduly and partly due to capacity constraints in countries such as Germany. Final Markit Manufacturing PMI readings for May (Friday) expected to confirm preliminary numbers, leaving the Eurozone reading at a still robust 55.5. And even if preliminary numbers came in weaker than expected, they still showed that job creation continues and hence the German unemployment rate for May (Wednesday) expected unchanged at a very low 5.3%. The overall Eurozone rate for April meanwhile is seen falling to 8.4% from 8.5% in the previous month.

UK: The calendar this week brings the May Gfk consumer confidence report (Wednesday), where a fractional improvement is anticipated to a -8 reading after -9 in the month prior, April lending data from the BoE (Thursday), and the May manufacturing PMI survey (Friday), which it is anticipated to dip to 53.5 in the headline reading from the 53.9 reading of April.

Japan: The April unemployment (Tuesday) is expected unchanged at 2.5%, with the job offers/seekers ratio steady at 1.59. April retail sales (Wednesday) should rise to a 0.5% y/y growth rate from 0.1% for large retailers, and edge up to 1.1% y/y from 1.0% overall. April industrial production (Thursday) is penciled in at a 1.0% y/y rate, slightly slower than the prior 1.4%, while the contraction in April housing starts (Thursday) is expected to have deepened to -8.5% y/y from -8.3%. April construction spending is also due Thursday. Friday brings the Q1 MoF Capex survey, and the May manufacturing PMI. The preliminary reading came in at 52.5, the lowest since August. It was 53.1 last May.

China: The official CFLP manufacturing PMI (Thursday) is forecast edging up to 51.5, after having dipped 0.1 point to 51.4 in April. It was at 51.2 a year ago. The index has generally been on a downtrend from 52.4 in September, and the slippage has rung some alarm bells over growth. Also, the Caixin/Markit manufacturing PMI (Friday) should dip to 51.0 from 51.1, and is down from 51.6 in February (the highest since the same reading in August). It was 49.6 last May.

Australia: The Building permits (Wednesday) are expected to rise 2.0% in April after the 2.6% gain in March. Private capital expenditures (Thursday) are seen expanding 2.0% in Q1 after the 0.2% dip (q/q, sa) in Q4. The next Reserve Bank of Australia event is the policy meeting on June 5, where no change to the current 1.50% setting for the cash rate, is expected.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 29th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 29th May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields fell below 2.9% for the first time this month before coming back from overnight lows to currently 2.902%, down -2.9 bp on the day. 10-year JGBs are down -0.4 bp at 0.028%. Italy angst triggered risk aversion in holiday thin markets and as the dip in yields weighed on the dollar, the strengthened yen put further pressure on Japanese stock markets. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.75% and -0.97% respectively. Hang Seng and CSI 300 both lost -0.65%, the ASX outperformed and is posting slight gains. Asian stock markets are also mostly down, although the NASDAQ managed to make some headway as U.S. markets prepare to come back from yesterday’s holiday. Overall risk aversion continues to dominate amid political turmoil in Europe and as the end U.S. exemptions on tariffs on steel and aluminium loom on the horizon. At hopes that the U.S. – North Korea summit will take place after all remains alive as a diplomacy seems to heat up. Oil prices remained under pressure as Saudia Arabia and Russia mull higher output to ease concerns over supply shortages. The WTI future is trading at USD 66.72 per barrel, after falling to a low of USD 65.80.

In Europe, the Italian 10-year meanwhile is already up a further 13 bp and at 2.788% set to overtake U.S. yields for the first time since 2014 as the ECB remains quiet on the sidelines and the impact of Draghi’s promise to do “all it takes”, starts to be priced out. Portuguese 10-year yields are also up 13 bp already this morning. In Italy 2-year bonds are selling even faster and the yield is up nearly 50 bp at 1.33%. There are a number of ECB speakers today and with the bond market rout widening pressure on the central bank to step in with some form of verbal intervention is mounting. Stock futures are also selling off and financial market turmoil will overshadow today’s data calendar, which includes Eurozone M3 as well as Italian confidence data.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• EU M3 Money Supply – Expectations – at 3.9% y/y from 3.7% y/y seen in April.

• US S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI – Expectations – S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices expected slightly lower at 6.5% y/y in March from 6.8% y/y in April.

• US CB Consumer Confidence – Expectations – 128.0 in May, down only slightly from a strong 128.7 reading in April and the 17-year high of 130.0 in February.

• RBNZ Financial Stability Report

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 30th May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 30th May 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and the 10-year is at 2.804%, up 2.3 bp on the day, but still firmly below 3% as confidence in the Fed rate path evaporates amid widening market turmoil. Yields in Asia remained under pressure as risk aversion dominated and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.016% while the sell off in stocks continued. The Nikkei is down -1.54%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -1.63% and -1.29% respectively after the U.S. closed with broad losses.Spanish yields meanwhile are still jumping higher and gained 10.6 bp so far, suggesting special factors rather than a wider stabilisation of sentiment is at play in the case of Italy. The situation looks similar at the short end, where the Italian 2-year yield is down -47.3 bp. Italy’s political turmoil and renewed concern about trade tensions between China and the U.S. continued to weigh on sentiment and a stronger yen added to pressure on Japanese markets. U.S. futures are also heading south and the correction in stocks doesn’t seem to have run its course yet. The calendar still has the Swiss KOF, French consumer spending and Q1 GDP, German jobless numbers, ESI economic confidence data and most importantly preliminary German HICP inflation, with the latter expected to pick up to 1.8% y/y.

German retail sales jump 2.3% m/m in April. A much stronger rebound from the dip in March than anticipated. With March numbers revised up to -0.4% m/m from -0.6% m/m, the annual rate still fell back to 1.2% from 1.7% y/y in the previous month, although the timings of Easter are likely to still distort the annual comparison. The numbers are volatile and often subject to heavy revisions, but the rebound over the month is still a positive sign after a raft of disappointing data that cast a shadow over the German growth outlook.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• German Unemployment Change & HICP – Expectations – Unemployment change expected unchanged at 5.3% y/y in May, while German HICP is seen rising to 1.8% y/y from 1.4% y/y.

• US ADP Non-Farm Employment – Expectations – seen rising 188k in May from 204k in April.

• US Goods Trade Balance & Prelim. GDP – Expectations – Advanced trade indicators deficit may widen to -$70.5 in April from $68.3 bln, along with a second update on Q1 GDP, which anticipated to remain at 2.3%, unchanged from the initial release.

• BOC Rate Statement – Expectations – no change to the current 1.25% policy setting alongside a maintenance of their gradualist tone, with a likely reiteration that they “will remain cautious with respect to future policy adjustments, guided by incoming data.”

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 31st May 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 31st May 2018.

Asian Market Wrap: Treasury yields moved up from yesterday’s lows and the 10-year is at 2.804%, up 2.3 bp on the day, but still firmly below 3% as confidence in the Fed rate path evaporates amid widening market turmoil. Yields in Asia remained under pressure as risk aversion dominated and 10-year JGB yields are down -0.5 bp at 0.016% while the sell off in stocks continued. The Nikkei is down -1.54%, Hang Seng and CSI 300 lost -1.63% and -1.29% respectively after the U.S. closed with broad losses.Spanish yields meanwhile are still jumping higher and gained 10.6 bp so far, suggesting special factors rather than a wider stabilisation of sentiment is at play in the case of Italy. The situation looks similar at the short end, where the Italian 2-year yield is down -47.3 bp. Italy’s political turmoil and renewed concern about trade tensions between China and the U.S. continued to weigh on sentiment and a stronger yen added to pressure on Japanese markets. U.S. futures are also heading south and the correction in stocks doesn’t seem to have run its course yet. The calendar still has the Swiss KOF, French consumer spending and Q1 GDP, German jobless numbers, ESI economic confidence data and most importantly preliminary German HICP inflation, with the latter expected to pick up to 1.8% y/y.

German retail sales jump 2.3% m/m in April. A much stronger rebound from the dip in March than anticipated. With March numbers revised up to -0.4% m/m from -0.6% m/m, the annual rate still fell back to 1.2% from 1.7% y/y in the previous month, although the timings of Easter are likely to still distort the annual comparison. The numbers are volatile and often subject to heavy revisions, but the rebound over the month is still a positive sign after a raft of disappointing data that cast a shadow over the German growth outlook.

Charts of the Day

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 1st June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 1st June 2018.

FX News Today

European Fixed Income Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are up 4.5 bp at 0.378% in opening trade, 2-year yields gained 3.6 bp and are at -0.643%. The rise in rates at the long end mirrors moves in Treasury and JGB yields, which lifted, the latter after the BoJ cut purchases of some debt at its regular operations. Peripherals are outperforming and the Italian 10-year is down -10.1 bp at 2.644%, after a last minute agreement with President Mattarella cleared the way for a populist coalition government, with Giuseppe Conte set to be sworn in today. Spain’s Rajoy meanwhile seems on the way out with the Socialists preparing to take control after reportedly gaining sufficient votes to win a vote of no confidence against Rajoy today. Stock futures are moving higher in Europe and the U.S. on the day Trump’s long announced tariffs finally come into effect. The EU’s countermeasures will start with the May 18 list of duties in U.S. goods ranging from Whiskey to Jeans, hardly the top of EU imports from the U.S. and there is lingering hope that despite the harsh tones from all sides, the high stakes will bring them back to the negotiating table. Data releases today focus on manufacturing PMI readings for the Eurozone, the U.K. and Switzerland.

Trump administration’s announcement that it was proceeding with slapping tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from Canada. The U.S. also hit Mexico and the EU with the same tariff (even though Mexico is a net buyer of U.S. steel and aluminium), and all three rapidly responded with announcements of counter tariffs. This weighed on global stock markets and underpinned safe havens, including the yen. In the mix were a bag of perky U.S. data releases, including weekly initial claims, personal income and the latest Chicago PMI survey, a spike in Eurozone HICP to 1.9% y/y in the preliminary May estimate from 1.2% y/y in April, above-forecast China manufacturing PMI and a miss in Japanese production data for April.

Canada announced plans to challenge the U.S. tariffs via both NAFTA and the WTO, while Macron of France declared them “a mistake and illegal.” Macron said the decision on the metals tariffs “closes the door on other talks,” though he plans to speak with Trump later tonight. The German economic minister said that the tariffs decision was damaging both for Europe and the U.S., but the transatlantic relationship remains extremely important for Germany.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• EU Final Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – expected to confirm preliminary numbers, leaving the Eurozone reading at a still robust 55.5.

• UK Manufacturing PMI – Expectations –anticipate to dip to 53.5 in the headline reading from the 53.9 reading of April.

• US NFP – Expectations – expected to rise 188,000 in May, following a weaker-than-expected April gain of 164,000.

• US ISM Manufacturing PMI – Expectations – estimated to tick up to 58.1 from 57.3 in April.

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 4th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 4th June 2018.

Main Macro Events This Week
The strength in the U.S. jobs report helped unwind a lot of the recent angst over trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties that many investors feared were jeopardizing the global upswing in growth. The acceleration in the U.S. should override tariff worries, and the momentum should help offset the slowing out of Europe, especially as the uncertainties over the political situations in Italy and Spain have been resolved for now. The markets are likely to be consolidative this week as a number of factors impact.

United States: This week’s calendar is light with few top tier reports, limited Treasury supply, and no Fedspeak given the blackout period ahead of the June 12, 13 FOMC meeting. Earnings have also slowed to a crawl. As for data, the May ISM non-manufacturing numbers (Tuesday) will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. An increase by 0.7 point to 57.5 is expected, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The April JOLTS data (Tuesday) will add some details to the outlook but will be anticlimactic following the employment report. And while it continues to corroborate the strength in the labor market, it also suggests the market may not be as tight as perceived. The April trade report (Wednesday) will be tracked given the tariff uncertainties, and it will also help fine tune the improved Q2 GDP outlook.

Canada: Canadian employment tops a busy week of economic data. The employment report (Friday) is expected to reveal a 20.0k bounce in jobs during May after the 1.1k dip in April, while the unemployment rate holds at a 40-year low 5.8%. The trade report (Wednesday) takes second place in the rankings of most-important-release-this-week, with the deficit expected to narrow to -C$2.8 bln in April from a -C$4.1 bln shortfall in March. Q1 productivity (Tuesday) is projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4. Building permits (Wednesday) are expected to fall 2.0% (m/m, sa) in April after the 3.1% rise in March values. The May Ivey PMI (Wednesday) is anticipated to slip to a still firm 70.0 in May from the seasonally adjusted 71.5 in April that was the firmest reading since the 73.2 seen in March of 2011. May housing starts (Friday) are expected to expand at a 215.0k unit pace, little changed from the 214.4k growth rate in April. Q1 capacity utilization (Friday) is seen rising to 86.1% from the 86.0% in Q4 that was strongest since Q2 of 2007’s matching 86.0%.

The Bank of Canada publishes the twice annual Financial Stability Review (Thursday, 10:30 ET) with a press conference to follow at 11:15 ET. In the November Review, the Bank said the high level of household indebtedness and housing market vulnerabilities were the most important vulnerabilities.

Europe: Political uncertainty in Italy and Spain may be resolved for now. But while the markets celebrated the new governments in Spain and Italy on Friday, the changes could spell trouble for the ECB and the stability of the Eurozone down the line if they bring uncontrolled deficit spending. With that in mind, and spreads having come in again, the chances that the ECB will commit to an end date for QE at the June 14 meeting are rising, especially after the jump in May HICP inflation. German orders data this week will be watched carefully, but even if data disappoints, it would further highlight that the central bank’s window of opportunity for the next step toward policy normalization is closing. Wrapping the end of QE in dovish guidance may be the best way to deal with the current uncertainty.

This week’s round of data includes key German reports, including the April manufacturing orders (Thursday) which are expected to show a 0.7% m/m rebound. German industrial production for April (Friday) and the trade balance (Friday). Final Eurozone Q1 GDP is widely expected to be confirmed at 0.4% q/q, but comes with a slight downward bias, after the revision to the final French reading. The earlier timing of Easter and adverse weather conditions left their mark on growth in the first quarter and the data are too backward looking to really change the outlook.The calendar also has final Eurozone May services PMI, Eurozone retail sales and PPI inflation, and a German I/L bond auction Thursday, followed by a 5-year Bobl auction Wednesday. France sells bonds Thursday.

UK: Brexit negotiations will continue this week while the data schedule is fairly quiet, highlighted by the release of the construction and services PMI surveys for May (due Monday and Tuesday,respectively). The construction PMI expected to come in with a headline reading of 52.0, down from 52.5 in April, which would indicate a modest slowing in the pace of expansion. Market participants will be keeping a watch out on the evolving Brexit negotiation, which is in a crucial phase and which remains fluid.

Japan: In Japan, April personal income and PCE (Tuesday) should show consumption rising to a 1.0% y/y pace from the previous -0.7%. The second look at Q1 GDP (Friday) is penciled in at -0.4% q/q, modestly improving from the preliminary -0.6% pace. The April current account surplus (Friday)is set to narrow to JPY 2,000.0 bln from 3,122.3 bln.

China’s trade balance (Friday) will get a lot of attention given the trade tensions with the U.S., though we shouldn’t be able to discern any impacts. The balance was at a $28.8 bln surplus in April with gains of 12.7% y/y for exports and 21.5% y/y for imports.

Australia: The RBA’s policy meeting (Tuesday) is expected to result in no change to the current 1.50% rate setting. In the April meeting, Governor Lowe repeated that the low level of interest rates is supporting the economy. Something similar is expected in the June statement, consistent with a low for long outlook for policy. The data slate is highlighted by Q1 GDP (Wednesday), expected to accelerate to a 0.7% growth rate (q/q, sa) from the 0.4% pace in Q1. Retail sales (Monday) are projected to expand 0.4% (m/m, sa) in April after the flat reading in March. The current account (Tuesday) is projected to narrow to a -A$9.0 bln deficit in Q1 from -A$14.0 bln in Q4. The trade balance (Thursday) is seen narrowing to a A$1.1 bln surplus in April from A$1.5 bln in March.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 5th June 2018.

MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 5th June 2018.

FX News Today

Asian Market Wrap: 10-year Treasury yields are down -0.5 bp at 2.937%, 10-year JGBs unchanged at 0.040%. After putting trade concerns aside and focusing on U.S. growth during the Monday session, stock markets struggled in Asia. The RBA left rates on hold as expected and maintained cautious optimism on the global and local growth outlook while suggesting that wage growth may have bottomed out, which saw the ASX underperforming and down -0.35%. Nikkei and Topix are up 0.20% and down -0.05% respectively, the Hang Seng gained 0.22% and the CSI outperformed with a 0.81% gain. A mixed picture, with markets appearing to take a wait and see stance. U.S. stock futures are slightly in the red, oil prices are slightly higher and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 65.02 per barrel.

FX Action: EURUSD has steadied above the N.Y. low of 1.1677, though continues to find sellers ahead of the 1.1700 mark. The pairing has steadied well above last week’s 11-month low of 1.1508, largely as the worst of the European political meltdown appears to be behind us for now. This said, there may still be some political fissures yet to bubble up, so EURUSD is expected to remain in sell-the-rally mode.

Charts of the Day

Main Macro Events Today

• EU Markit Services PMI – Expectations – expected to be confirmed at 53.9, leaving the composite at 54.1, down from the previous month, but still pointing to a solid pace of expansionand at least for the manufacturing sector market reported ongoing job creation amid capacity constraints and an overall optimistic view on the outlook over the next 12 months.

• UK Services PMI- Expectations – a dip is anticipated to 53.0 in the headline reading after 52.8 in April.

• US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI – Expectations – will be of most interest given the timeliness of the release. A 0.7 point increase has been forecasted to 57.5, after falling 2.0 points to 56.8 in April, after hitting a 12-year high of 59.9 in January. The slight improvement will leave the service sector tracking the expected performance for the May factory surveys which are showing improvement. These readings remain robust, supported by fiscal stimulus as well as stronger global growth.

• Canadian Q1 productivity – Expectations – projected to slip 0.1% (q/q, sa) following the 0.2% gain in Q4.

• Speeches: UK MPC Member Cunliffe, German Buba President Weidmann, RBA Assist Gov Bullock

Support and Resistance levels

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.


Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex


Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.