Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

[HFM]

Date : 12th March 2021.

Market Update – March 12 – USD Rallies, JPY Pressured.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – The USD dips and then finds a bid. Stimulus Bill signed by Biden – targets July 4 as “normalcy”. Stocks closed higher (Nasdaq +2.5%), Weekly Claims close to November low (712k), 30-yr auction filled at 2.3%, again better than feared. ECB will quicken asset purchases but not increase them. Overnight Asian markets firmer; Nikkei +1.73%. German CPI inline and UK data dump biased to the upside.

Against this backdrop, the USDIndex reversed most of yesterday’s declines in posting a high at 91.81, up from the eight-day low at 91.36. EURUSD concurrently ebbed to a low at 1.1935, down from yesterday’s eight-day high at 1.1990. Cable dipped back to the mid 1.3900s after briefly lifting above 1.4000 for the first time since Thursday last week, despite UK yields rising by a similar magnitude to US yields.

USDJPY has been the biggest beneficiary of the firmer dollar, with the pair rising by over 0.6% today in posting a high at 109.17, which is 8 pips shy of the nine-month high that was seen earlier in the week. Yen crosses gained, with many hitting new major trend highs. EURJPY posted a 25-month high, while GBPJPY clawed out a new 25-month peak, and CADJPY a 28-month high, for instance. The rootedness of JGB yields has lately been seeing differentials has tipped marked out of the yen’s favour. The risk of further lurching spikes in Treasury yields are high with fiscal stimulus about to start being unleashed and as the US economy reopens. One argument is that the shear size of the stimulus, at 9% of GDP, dwarfs the output gap, which is near 3%. And note, the does not include the infrastructure bill that the Democrats are working on, which is likely to be vast — Goldman Sachs is anticipating it to be at least $2 tln, and potentially double that (over a 10-year period). Also, assuming Covid vaccinations allow reopening of hard-hit sectors, the prevailing deficiency on the supply-side of the economy should start to evaporate. Such as scenario would be bullish of the Dollar, although raising the possibility of eventual overheating.

Today – US PPI, Canadian jobs report, UoM Consumer Sentiment & Inflation expectations.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.46%) Moved lower this morning from 0.7230 and then breached 200MA & PP at 0.7200. S1 at 0.7171. Faster MAs aligned lower, RSI 36.7 and falling, MACD histogram & signal line aligned lower, histogram testing 0 line. Stochs OS and still falling, MFI testing OS zone. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0090.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th March 2021.

FX Update – March 16 – Sterling the weakest today.

GBPUSD, H1​

Currencies have mostly been trading with stability amid a benign backdrop of buoyant stock markets and softer yields as markets anticipate dovish guidance from the Fed and tomorrow’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting, which begins later today. This is despite the $1.9 tln fiscal stimulus which is being implemented on top of a better than anticipated economic rebound, though the Fed, looking beyond the upcoming burst of inflation caused by base effects on the year-on-year price comparison, will point to spare capacity in the labour market.



One side-theme of note today has been pound weakness, with Cable pushing nearly 0.5% lower in pegging a one-week low at 1.3807 and EURGBP rising by a similar magnitude in posting an eight-day high at 0.8636. This came after BoE Governor Bailey said that inflation will remain below the 2% target threshold even after the expected jump due to year-on-year base effects and economic reopening. Bailey also affirmed that the central bank will continue with its QE program for the remainder of 2021. The 10-year gilt yield nudged under 0.790% in the wake of his remarks.



Elsewhere, both EURUSD and USDJPY traded in narrow ranges, respectively above and below their recent lows and highs. AUDUSD drifted lower, though remained above Monday’s low. USDCAD lifted, but remained below yesterday’s rebound high, which was seen after a 37-month low was clocked at 1.2441. The pair had been weighed on by Friday’s strong employment report out of Canada, which sparked a narrowing in the US over Canadian yield differential. A drop in oil prices subsequently countervailed this by weakening the Loonie.



In other news today, BoJ Governor Kuroda said there was no need to change the yield curve control framework, and that it was vital to keep the yield curve low and stable. The Japanese central bank reviews policy later this week, announcing on Friday. US President Biden said that he would not improve relations with China until Beijing ceases its economic coercion of Australia. A renewed rise in Covid cases is being seen in much of Europe, outside the UK, which is being driven, somewhat ironically, by the highly transmissible UK variant. Goldman Sachs are forecasting the 10-year T-note yield to rise to 2%, remarking that this will be digestible for equity markets, but first 1.75% needs to be breached; currently it’s exchanging hands below 1.60% at 1.593%.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 18th March 2021.

Dollar on Bid | 18 March 2021.


The market cheered as Fed Chair Powell assured that there would not be a pre-emptive tightening. Yields pulled back from session highs initially, leaving modest gains on the longer dated issues and pulling short and medium term yields underwater. Fed Powell stressed that the Fed will clearly telegraph to the markets before it begins to taper QE purchases. Wall Street rallied.

For bonds the initial relief over the FOMC’s assurances on the rate outlook was short lived and Treasury yields started to move higher again, with bonds across Asia also under pressure as the optimistic economic outlook for the US economy revived reflation trades.

Headlines:

• The increasingly optimistic growth outlook for the US contrasts with concerns that the much slower vaccine rollout in the EU will delay the recovery in the Eurozone. GER30 is up 0.8%, versus a 0.4% rise in the UK100.
• Fresh reports that the Bank of Japan is considering widening the trading range around the 10-year target added to pressure on JGBs as the BoJ starts its 2-day meeting.
• Australian shares dragged down by technology and healthcare stocks.
• An economic contraction in the final quarter of 2020 sent New Zealand’s benchmark index to its biggest drop in two weeks. GDP at -1% q/q for Q4.
• The JPN225 was up 1.01% at the close and the Topix managed to clear the 2000 mark for the first time since 1991.
• Australia Feb. employment change +88.7K (vs expected +30K) & unemployment rate 5.8% (vs expected 6.3%).
• A high-level diplomatic meeting taking place today, in Alaska between China and the US; China has outlined its hopes for an easing of tensions as a result of the meeting but also expressed low expectations.

Forex Market

Dollar on bid as Yields rally

JPY – spiked to 109.29 ahead of EU open.
EUR – pulled back to 1.1948 from 1.1988 highs.
GBP – lifted to 1.3993 as the focus turns to the BoE, which is also expected to signal a strengthened growth outlook, while keeping policy settings stable.
AUD – steadied close to 20-day SMA.
CAD – dropped sharply as Powell removed lingering fears that the Fed would begin to remove accommodation before 2023, leaving the pair at 1.2365 from 1.2490 ahead of the announcement.
USOil –drops for 5th straight day after US inventories rise. The EIA inventory data showed a 2.4 mln bbl rise in crude stocks.
Gold – rose 0.35% to $1,755.47 per ounce by 01:19 GMT, as the Fed’s pledge to keep rates low and worries about inflation pushed up the precious metals. But currently lower on stronger Dollar.

Today: The focus turns to the BoE, which is also expected to signal a strengthened growth outlook, while keeping policy settings stable. The calendar also includes Eurozone trade numbers as well as comments from ECB President Lagarde.

BoE Preview: The bank is widely anticipated to leave policy unchanged by unanimous vote at the nine-member committee meeting, which will leave the repo rate at its historic low of 0.10% and the QE total at GBP 875 bln. Some focus will be on the statement and minutes, though these aren’t likely to be too interesting so soon after last month revising its quarterly forecasts. Nonetheless, it will be interesting to see the policymakers’ take on the transition afoot in markets — the spike in Gilt and global sovereign yields and the tumble and rotation in global stock markets. Most likely the guidance will be sanguine given the basis of improving global growth prospects, and the effective Covid vaccination program in the UK, juxtaposed to the level of spare capacity in the domestic economy.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 26th March 2021.

Market Update – March 26 – USD & Equities higher as risk taking seeps back.


Market News Today – USD gains on safe-haven & better econ. news, EUR & JPY pressured, Sterling, AUD & NZD higher. US stock markets higher (+0.5%), Nikkei closed +1.56%. Quarter end rebalancing & risk seeping back into markets. Good US data (Claims at 1-year lows (under 700k – this week last year 3.2 million), Q4 GDP upgraded to +4.3% and all the Fedspeak cool with the path for inflation. Gold $1730, USOil $59.60 (The Evergreen is not going anywhere soon – $10bn of global trade held up). Overnight – PBOC sees 6% growth for China in 2021, CPI in Tokyo ticks higher and UK Retail sales in line at 2.1%. Biden – 100 million vaccines in 42 days wants 200 million in 100 days, EU cases and vaccine problems persist – leaders disunited over action.

Investor sentiment improved on the last day of the week and Asian stock markets were broadly higher, after a positive close on Wall Street yesterday. Vaccine optimism outbalanced reports of a climb in global Covid-19 case numbers and strengthened confidence in a recovery of global economic activity later in the year. Chinese markets bounced after being weighed down yesterday by fears of escalating US-China tensions. Stable US yields also helped somewhat. The US 10-year rate is currently down -0.1 bp at 1.63%, after another lacklustre (7-yr) auction yesterday. Topix and Nikkei closed with gains of 1.5% and 1.6% respectively and the ASX lifted 0.5%. Hang Seng and CSI 300 also closed up 1.7% and 2.2%, respectively.

In FX markets the Yen weakened and USDJPY lifted to 109.27, although the Dollar fell back against most other currencies. AUD and NZD were supported. The EUR managed to recover some ground against the Dollar and is currently trading at 1.1783. Cable lifting to 1.3755 following the rebound in UK retail sales, which lifted 2.4% m/m in February after falling -8.7% m/m at the start of the year, is adding to the positive mood. The annual rate improved to -1.1% y/y from -3.7% y/y.

Today – German IFO, US PCE & core PCE, personal income & spending, Uni. of Michigan (final).



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.68%) Volatile week continues, big rally from 82.50 lows yesterday. Rallied to test R2 at 83.37. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 69 and rising to test OB zone, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and both back over 0 line for first time since 18th. Stochs OB but still rising. H1 ATR 0.1228, Daily ATR 0.7285.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 1st April 2021.

Market Update – April 1st.


Market News Today – Stocks have moved broadly higher as investors continue to focus on the recovery. Hence stocks closed Q1 mostly firmer, with a new record high on the USA500, rising 0.46% to 13,246. The USA100 climbed 1.54% to 13,246 as big tech recovered some poise and helped the index post a 0.4% gain on the month. While for the first three months of the year, the USA30 was up 7.76% as reflation/reopening trades gathered steam. Risk appetite has been supported by vaccines, and now by expectations of more stimulus with President Biden announcing another $2.25 tln infrastructure deal.

Tightened restrictions resulting from virus flareups in some parts of the world were overlooked for now, but have the potential to limit the rise in markets that have already come a very long way. Yields have also risen sharply and the Bloomberg Barclays index tracking US government bonds, reported the worst quarterly performance since 1980.

In Europe, Eurozone bond markets closed higher and stocks struggled, with dovish comments from ECB’s Lagarde helping to underpin peripheral markets. The central bank head stressed once again that monetary policy will remain very accommodative for some time to come, which helped to counterbalance the uptick in inflation.

In FX markets, after hitting fresh near 5-month highs overnight, the USDIndex lost some ground through in NY and Asia trade falling to 92.99 lows, but USDIndex is back on 93.30 area again this morning. Profit taking appeared to be a motive, despite mostly better data. The USDJPY was little changed at 110.71, with both gaining against most other currencies. AUD meanwhile was the main underperformer. The EUR and GBP are firmed holding into two-week low territory. The USOIL is at $59.61.



Today – For today, the focus will be on confidence numbers again, with the final round of manufacturing PMIs, which are likely to confirm a further acceleration in the pace of expansion. Attention is on US Friday’s jobs report.

Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCAD (-0.71%) The asset drifted to 0.7530 breaking a 3-month support level which seems also to be a neckline of a head and shoulder formation. Fast MAs aligned lower, with RSI turning higher in the OS area, however MACD histogram & signal line are negatively configured. H1 ATR 0.00125, Daily ATR 0.00696.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 6th April 2021.

Market Update – April 6 – Equities Rally & USD Cools.


Market News Today – US Equities closed at new all-time highs, (Service PMIs at record, TSLA beats delivery targets – shares up +4%) USD and 10-yr yields cool. No change to rates (0.1%), bond buying or outlook from RBA, AUD unfazed. Yellen suggests global minimum tax rate, Credit Suisse announces $4.7bn hit from Archegos margin call. Overnight JPY earnings better, spending worse, CNY Services PMIs beat. UK shops pubs & restaurants open from April 12, NZ-Aus flight corridor April 19. Globally 658 million vaccines administered across 151 countries. The EU vaccine roll-out and new infections in India & Brazil remain areas of concern.

RBA – Governor Lowe stressed that the “board is committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary policy conditions until its goals are achieved” and that the cash rate won’t rise “until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2-3% target range”. “For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently”. At the same time, Lowe warned that “given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained”. AUD house prices increased the most since 1988 in February.

Week Ahead – RBA (6th) EU PMIs & FOMC Minutes (7th), ECB Minutes, Weekly Claims & Powell speech (8th), CAD Jobs & US PPI (9th).

The Dollar has found its feet after taking a tumble in thin markets yesterday. The bullish case for the Dollar remains strong, given the outsized fiscal stimulus coursing through the US economy alongside the relatively advanced states of Covid vaccination progress in the US and likelihood for further widening in the US Treasury yield differential versus peers. The March jobs report was a blowout, while the ISM services index surged to a record peak. Wall Street also scaled to new record highs yesterday. The only blot on the bullish dollar landscape is the uber accommodative stance of the Fed, which has been downplaying the scope for runaway inflation risks, although the relatively high Treasury yields, among low- and sub-zero yielding peers, will offset this. The USDIndex has lifted to the upper 92.0s after yesterday posting a 12-day low at 92.52. EURUSD has concurrently tested the waters below 1.1800 after making a 12-day peak at 1.1820. USDJPY has lifted back above 110.00. AUDUSD has dropped back from one-week highs, while Cable has tipped back under 1.3900 after earlier pegging an 18-day high at 1.3920. The Pound yesterday printed a 14-month high versus the Euro, which although occurring in holiday-thinned trading reflects the contrasting fortunes of the reopening UK economy with the re-restricted economies across the Channel. The rate of new Covid cases is now 4% of what it was at the peak seen in early January, despite a more than doubling in testing over that time, while the death rate is less than 3% of what it was at the highs.

Today – EZ unemployment, ECB asset purchases, US JOLTS.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.20%) rallied from test of 200MA on open, (0.6600) to PP at 0.6620 and over 50 MA. Yesterday declined from 0.6645 high. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 53 and rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line from open after yesterday’s fall. Stochs rising. H1 ATR 0.0008 Daily ATR 0.0046.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 14th April 2021.

Market Update – World stocks hit record high.



Market News Today – Treasuries erased early gains, but bond markets across Asia remained supported, after investors shrugged off the hotter than expected US inflation number yesterday and focused on the successful 30-year bond auction. Global stock markets rose to a record high on Wednesday as bond yields eased after data showed US inflation was not rising wildly as the economy reopens.

As Reuters reported, Johnson & Johnson’s shares slid 1.34% after US federal health agencies recommended pausing the rollout of its COVID-19 vaccine for at least a few days, after six women developed rare blood clots. Setbacks to vaccination rollouts have raised concerns about the global economic recovery.

New Zealand’s RBNZ left policy settings unchanged and confirmed its commitment to an expansionary policy, which helped to underpin the rise in Australia and New Zealand bonds. A sharp sell off in one of China’s largest bad-debt managers attracted attention and rekindled concerns over credit markets. Bloomberg also reported that Tencent Holdings Ltd is holding off marketing a planned dollar bond deal.

Central banks remain focused on providing stimulus and the hotter than expected US inflation number hasn’t re-booted reflation trades so far, as negative vaccine headlines added to the already concerning outlook for EU supply.

In FX markets, the USD was steady to lower after yesterday’s decline in Treasury yields and USDJPY fell back to 108.96. AUD and NZD gained. Both EUR and GBP lifted against a largely weaker Dollar, with EURUSD currently at 1.1964 and Cable at 1.3777. USOIL meanwhile is trading at $60.73 per barrel. Bitcoin hit a record above $64,500, extending its 2021 rally as Coinbase shares are due to list in the United States. Gold held up well against the USD.

Today – Data releases today are unlikely to change the overall outlook, but include Eurozone production data for February and inflation numbers out of Sweden. Comments from ECB’s Guindos will also be in focus. US calendar has March trade prices but earnings to headline with JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc GS.N among the companies reporting.



Biggest (FX) Mover – (NZDUSD @ 07:30 GMT +0.61%) The NZDUSD spiked higher on the largely USD weakness and after the RBNZ statement. The asset broke its 1-week resistance and turned above R2 and the round 0.7100 level. Currently fast MAs and MACD lines are aligned higher but RSI and Stochastics have started turning lower, suggesting a potential pullback. ATR (H1) at 0.00119 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00566.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th April 2021.

Market Update – Pricing in a solid global recovery again.


Treasuries posted strong and very surprising gains, overlooking robust data and a solid rally on Wall Street. It was something of a buy-the-fact trade as hefty data was the well advertised risk (Retail sales surged 9.8% in March and climbed 8.4% excluding autos & Initial Jobless Claims tumbled -193k to 576k). The 10-year yield dropped 10 bps to 1.530%, the lowest in a month. The break of key technical levels added to the bid, with some haven demand too amid virus and vaccine worries, along with some geopolitical risks.

The USA500 and the USA30 reached record highs thanks to strong data that supported the recovery narrative, along with hefty earnings, and the drop in yields. The USA100 outperformed with a better than 1% jump and is back over 14,000 for the first time since mid-February. As Refinitiv reported, USA100 traders were all bulled up buying the tech breakout yesterday after the USA100 rallied 10%. BUT we should keep an eye on technicals as RSI has reached overbought levels. Elsewhere, Asia markets were largely steady after China reported a sharp acceleration in first quarter growth, though the reading slightly undershot expectations while retail sales bounced strongly last month. For Europe, GER30 and UK100 futures are currently up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively.

In FX markets, EURUSD is little changed at 1.1968, while GBPUSD dropped back to 1.3761. USDJPY is little changed at 108.79. AUD and NZD fell slightly below yesterday’s peak. USOIL extended gains to 63.84. Gold held steady near a more than one-month high on Friday, en route to its second straight weekly gain, boosted by a drop in US Treasury yields and a weaker Dollar.

Today – Today’s data calendar focuses on final Eurozone inflation readings for March and February trade data also for the Eurozone. US Building permits, housing starts and Michigan Index are also on tap.



Biggest (FX) Mover – (EURGBP @ 07:30 GMT -0.43%) The asset rallied to 0.8710 retesting the 7-week highs for a 3rd time. Intraday the fast MAs aligned higher, RSI is at 66, while MACD is positive but signal line holds at neutral. ATR (H1) at 0.00061 and ATR (Daily) at 0.00488.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 20th April 2021.

Market Update – April 20 – Weaker USD & JPY Today.


Market News Today – US Equities slip (TSLA, Nvidia and Peloton) all hit by news (-0.5%) as Yields & USD move from lows. EUR, GBP & AUD bid, JPY pressured. Asian markets at 6-week high on weak USD, Nikkei down, German PPI and UK jobs data both beat expectations. Xi cautioned against “meddling in others internal affairs”, Kuroda no change to ETF purchases and cautions on recovery.

The Dollar has diverged from US yields, with the greenback, as measured by the narrow trade-weighted USDIndex, extending yesterday’s steep decline in posting a fresh seven-week low at 90.82. The index is now down by a cumulative 2.8% from the five-month highs that were seen in late March. Today’s decline marks a break from the recent correlative pattern, being concomitant with rising longer-dated Treasury yields. The 10-year note yield is up 2.2 bp on the day, at 1.627%, as of the early London morning, which is the loftiest level since last Thursday, while marking an 8 bp rebound from the recent low. The 10-year yield remains some 17 bp down on the high seen in late March, and clearly the currency market is anticipating limited risk for a return to a sustained yield ascent, similar to what we saw during the first three months of the year.



Instead, markets are running with a similar dollar-bearish sentiment that was prevailing over the final quarter of last year, with the greenback weakening amid a backdrop of buoyant global equity and commodity markets, with optimism running high for global economies to rise strongly from pandemic hardships on the back of vaccinated-assisted reopening of societies, along with massive stimulus policies and an expected unleashing of consumer ‘lockdown savings’ in major economies, all alongside a benign outlook on inflation, particularly in the US where the fiscal stimulus is the largest, both by contemporary global standards and by post-second world war standards. We suspect this won’t last, and markets will return to pricing in contingency risk that the Fed may be forced to tighten much sooner than the 2024 start point for tightening that has been signalled by the central bank.

Today – Highlights include still to come on a quiet day CB’s de Cos, & Earnings from Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Phillip Morris, P&G & Lockheed Martin.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (+0.84%) Rallied on open from PP & 200MA at 83.90 to beyond R3 at 84.60. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI OB at 77 but still rising, MACD histogram & signal line aligned higher and over 0 line from earlier. Stochs OB zone and rising. H1 ATR 0.1260, Daily ATR 0.6050.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 29th April 2021.

Market Update – April 29 – What a night!!!

Market News Today – Japan was closed for a holiday today but elsewhere stock markets got a boost from the FOMC’s commitment to ongoing stimulus and Biden’s USD 1.8 trillion social support plan, with stimulus expected to underpin the recovery in world growth.

• Action was seen in the front end of the Treasury market. The 2-year yield dropped 1.6 bps to 0.164% from a test of 0.18% after the FOMC assured tapering and lift off was still not even in the conversation. There had been some suspicion, and pricing, for a possible bearish hint, which was not forthcoming.
• Wall Street was mixed and choppy on the day before closing with slight losses, with the US indexes just off record highs initially and a mix of earnings.
• Apple, Facebook earned massive profits amid increased scrutiny.
• Apple reported record fiscal second-quarter revenue of $89.6 billion on surging sales of premium iPhones and pandemic-induced buying of its other products. Apple authorized an additional $90 billion in stock buybacks.
• NatWest returned to profit in the first quarter of 2021 ($1.32 billion pre-tax).
• In Australia, much higher than expected import and export prices will keep lingering inflation concerns alive. Import price inflation finally turned positive and export prices jumped more than 11%.
• The Fed acknowledged rising inflation though and German preliminary inflation data for April is likely to be a focus today and could weigh on bonds later in the session.
• Amazon is raising wages for its hourly employees after a majority of workers at one of the e-commerce giant’s warehouses voted not to unionize.
• Facebook temporarily blocked posts containing hashtags calling on Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to resign, then reinstated them on Wednesday, saying the action had been taken in error.

In FX markets, the USD continued to weaken as a doggedly dovish outlook from the FED and spending plans from the White House gave a green light for the global reflation trade, although the Yen also struggled and USDJPY held pretty steady at 108.61. The front end WTI future meanwhile is trading at USD 64.11 per barrel. The EUR and GBP gained against a largely weaker USD, with EURUSD at 1.2135 and Cable just under the 1.40 mark. The AUD was under pressure. USOIL is above $64 as bullish forecasts for a demand recovery this summer offset concerns of rising COVID-19 cases in India, Japan and Brazil. Palladium & Copper retreat from the all-time highs hit on Tuesday.



Today – The markets will quickly turn their attention back to earnings and data after the uneventful FOMC. Today’s data releases include German jobless numbers as well as Eurozone ESI confidence data, while the earnings calendar features reports from Amazon, Mastercard, Merck, Thermo Fisher, McDonald’s, Shell, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Caterpillar, American Tower, S&P Global, Altria, Southern Company, Twitter etc.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 4th May 2021.

Market update – Shares edging higher.


Market News Today – Treasuries kicked off May with modest gains, correcting from the losses to end April. Caution ruled as Covid problems remain worries, especially with the spike in India. Wall Street was led by the USA30‘s 0.7% rally, with the USA500 up 0.27%, though the USA100 slipped -0.48% lower, as tech stocks were under pressure. Comments from Fed Chair Powell suggesting that the economic recovery remains patchy helped to boost Treasuries yesterday, but bonds traded mixed overnight. Australia markets outperformed, but yields have come back from lows after the RBA left policy settings unchanged for now but upgraded its economic outlook. GER30 and UK100 futures meanwhile are down -0.1% and up 0.3% respectively, the latter in catch up mode as UK markets return from the extended bank holiday weekend. Trading conditions remained quiet, with China and Japan still on holiday.

In FX markets, the US Dollar strengthened across the board and USDJPY lifted to 109.33. Both EUR and GBP dropped against a largely stronger USD and also speculations on BoE. Analysts reckon the bank might announce a slowdown in its bond buying programme as vaccinations have bolstered Britain’s economy. Ethereum is at 160% above the 200-day MA, breaking $3,500. USOIL meanwhile spiked to $64.35 per barrel, as more US states eased lockdowns and the European Union sought to attract travellers. The weaker-than-expected US data stoked concerns over recovery and limited losses for the safe-haven metal. Gold is down at $1,785, after hitting its highest since Feb. 25 at 1797.

Today – Data releases in Europe today focus on the final UK manufacturing PMI for April as well as consumer credit growth ahead of the BoE announcement on Thursday.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ 07:30 GMT – USDRUB turned 0.44% lower, breaking the 20-period SMA. The MAs aligned lower while RSI is at 43 and pointing lower and MACD is below signal line, suggesting decreasing positive bias. ATR (H1) at 0.24544 & ATR (D) at 0.90351.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 6th May 2021.

Market Update – May 6 – GBP in focus ahead of BoE & Elections.



Market News Today – USD consolidates, (USDIndex holds PP at 91.25), Equities closed mixed (new ATH for USA30, USA100 down 0.37% as rotation away from tech continues). The AUD fell over 0.5% as China said it will “indefinitely suspend” all activities under the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue. 10-yr Yields held at 1.59%. Commodities tear continues – Copper nudging 10- yr highs. German Factory orders much better than expected. Japan, China and South Korea back to work. Biden agrees to IP waiver for Covid vaccines.

EUR – down to test 1.2000 zone (again), JPY holds over 109.00 at 109.30, Cable rotates around 1.3900 ahead of BOE & Elections. AUD held support at 0.7700, back to 0.7745 now and CAD moves down from 1.2300 to 1.2250 zone.

USOIL peaked at $66.65 yesterday tested $65.00 post inventories – back to $65.70 now Gold – $1794 following a test of 200hr support at $1775). Commodities remain robust. BTC back to test $58,000 yesterday at $57,000 now. Dogecoin –

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 11 ticks, U.S. futures are little changed, while in cash markets the 10-year Bund yield is up 1.1 bp at 1.58%. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.01% and 0.13% respectively, U.S. futures are also posting fractional gains after a mixed session in Asia, where rising trade tensions between China and Australia weighed on local markets. Investors will be starting to look ahead to tomorrow’s U.S. jobs report, but today’s local calendar is also quite busy, with BoE and Norges Bank announcing policy, a key local election in the U.K. that could have bearing on Scotland’s relation with Westminister, and a number of data points.

Today – BoE & (Norges & CBRT) rate decisions, UK Services PMI, US Weekly Claims ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, BoE’s Bailey, Fed’s Williams, Kaplan, Mester. Earnings from Moderna, Rengeneron, ViacomCBS, Peloton, AB Inbev, Continental, ArcelorMittal, ING, Volkswagen, SocGen, UniCredit. Up to 48 million people to vote in UK local elections.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURJPY (+0.18%) rallied from lows below 131.00 yesterday to test R1 at 131.35 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 55 & moving higher, MACD histogram testing 0 line & signal line aligned higher but under 0 line. Stochs risingto test OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0886, Daily ATR 0.6745.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 11th May 2021.

May 11 – Tech sell off & Commodities gain ahead of today’s data.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – The stock markets sold off across Asia. Inflation concerns have hit tech stocks in particular, and the rise in commodity prices has seen the 5-year break even inflation rate lifting to the highest level since 2006, according to Bloomberg calculations. China CPI climbed to a 0.9% y/y clip in April, more than double the 0.4% y/y from March. The jump in commodity prices has sparked concern over extended valuations in equities and JPN225 corrected -2.4% and -2.1% respectively. The ASX sold off -1.0% and the Hang Seng is currently down -1.8%. Mainland China bourses outperformed despite a higher than expected PPI reading that reflected surging commodity prices worldwide.

While demand for Treasuries will be supported by safe haven flows, Eurozone peripherals, which outperformed yesterday, may well feel the chill this morning. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -1.3% and -1.2% respectively and a 0.7% correction in the tech heavy USA100 is leading US futures lower.

In FX markets, the USDJPY is little changed at 108.95, with the US Dollar and Yen both struggling. Cable stabilised at high levels after yesterday’s surge – currently at 1.4124, as the UK BRC retail sales figures confirmed a surge in demand as the country continues to re-open. EURUSD meanwhile lifted to 1.2143. USOIL eased back to $64.33, as traders keep a wary eye on the impact of the cyber attack that led to pipeline closures.

Today – Today’s data calendar has German ZEW investor confidence, which is expected to move higher.



Biggest (FX) Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURCHF (+0.66%) reversed more than 40% of its 3-day decline from 7-week highs at 153.30 today. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, but RSI is close to 50 and MACD histogram & signal line remain well below zero even though they are presenting decreasing negative bias. The intraday positive bias remains limited. H1 ATR 0.0006, Daily ATR 0.0038.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 28th May 2021.

Market Update – May 28 – US Inflation & Stimulus in focus.


LONDON

Market News Today – Treasuries slumped after news President Biden will offer a $6 tln spending plan on Friday. Gilts led a sell off in EGBs yesterday after hawkish leaning comments from BoE’s Vlieghe hinted at the possibility of an early rate hike. Wall Street was generally firmer on reflation trades and the stimulus news, though the major indexes also lost altitude into the close as the administration also indicated it wanted to make the capital gains tax increase retroactive to April. As for the data, the mixed numbers didn’t provided any clear directional clues. The BoJ is reportedly mulling an extension of the pandemic relief program as Japan prepares to extend its state of emergency. Stock markets at least moved broadly higher across the Asia-Pacific region. JPN225 jumped 2.1%, at 29,127.

Today, stock markets are not really spooked and the GER30 and UK100 are up 0.3% and 0.4% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures. In the meantime, German import prices were released and jumped 10.3% y/y in April, the highest reading since December 2010 and up from 6.9% y/y in the previous month. Base effects from energy prices remain the main driving factor, with oil prices up nearly 200%, prices for mineral oil products nearly 80% and natural gas up nearly 60%.

In FX markets, NZD eased across the board, while USD and Yen were sought. NZDUSD is at 0.7240 (200-period EMA). Both EUR and GBP moved lower against the Dollar, with EURUSD at 1.2175 and Cable at 1.4105. USOIL rallied to $67.16. Gold is at $1889.30 ahead of today’s data.

Today: Local data releases today are likely to support the recovery story, with Eurozone ESI economic confidence, and key US data in the PM session, i.e. PCE, Michigan Index and Good Trade Balance. The G7 meeting of Finance Ministers and central bankers may also attract some attention.


Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT – NZDUSD -0.65%) NZDUSD dipped to 0.7240. In the 1 hour chart, faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 31 and still sloping, MACD histogram & signal line turned below zero. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0069.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 2nd June 2021.

Market Update – June 2 – USD off lows.



Market News Today – USD off lows but remains pressured. USDIndex down to 89.63 yesterday back to 89.90 now. Good PMI data and a beat for EU CPI (up to 2.0%) will focus minds at the ECB – and a strong US Manufacturing PMI will add to the “to talk taper or not” at the FED. OPEC+ agreed to increase production in July (USOil dipped from $68.60 to $67.35). US Markets closed flat (USA500 -2 to 4202); Zoom Earnings & profits beat, outlook trimmed, AMC rallied 22% after $250m investment. Asian markets are mixed. Overnight a significant beat for AUD GDP and revisions sent Aussie lower, as positive comments from RBNZ Governor Orr sent NZD lower. German Retail sales a huge miss (-5.5% vs -2.4%) as lockdowns bite, EUR 1.2212 from 1.2225. GOLD dipped from $1916 yesterday to under $1900 now.

This week – Heavy dose of global data – top of the shop is US NFP, Eurozone Retail Sales & GDP and monthly PMI data – The data could reveal the acceleration in annual inflation growth for major economies.

European Open – The June 10-year Bund future is up 13 ticks at 169.96, the September Treasury future little changed, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate is now unchanged at 1.61%, after the paper erased overnight losses. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.1% and US futures are also posting fractional gains, but it looks like a cautious start to the day, with investors still digesting yesterday’s data round ahead of the Beige Book for the next FED meeting.

Today – CB Speak day – US Private Oil Inventories, RBA’s Debelle, Bullock, ECB’s Elderson, Lagarde, Buba’s Weidmann, Fed’s Harker, Evans, Bostic, Kaplan, Kashkari.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.37%) rallied from under 20-day moving average yesterday and a dip to 1.9470 earlier, over PP and R1 to 1.9580. MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 64.75 and rising, MACD signal line rising (under 0 line) however, histogram has broken over. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0021, Daily ATR 0.0140.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 4th June 2021.

Market Update – June 4 – Dollar bounces ahead of NFP.



Market News Today – USD sprang to life after strong ADP (978k vs 645k), Weekly Claims (385k vs 400k) and ISM Services PMI data (64 vs 63). USDIndex has rallied (+0.8%) to 90.57 after closing over 20-day moving average for the first time since April 7. Equity markets sank (USA100 hit hardest; -1%) (USA500 -0.4%, -15pts to 4192, as VIX rallied 1.1%). 10yr Yields have rallied to 1.632%. Asian markets also lower. All eyes on NFP at 12:30 GMT. USOil down from $69.00 to $69.70 (following a much bigger inventory drawdown of 5.1mb vs 1.2 expected ) Overnight Stronger rebound for Japanese household spending, Fedspeak remained Dovish lead by Williams “not concerned by inflation outlook”. Biden offers 15% min. rate for Corp. Tax and 28% top has post NFP press conference scheduled (14:15 GMT). EUR 1.2107, JPY 1109.25, GBP 1.4100. GOLD (& other commodities (partic. Copper) slumped on the stronger USD – touched $1855, closed at $1870 and holds there now.

European Open – The Sep 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are US futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate stabilised. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are fractionally lower, as are US futures. Strong data releases and tapering musings saw yields moving higher yesterday and investors will likely hold back ahead of the key US payroll numbers later today. It seems increasingly likely that central banks will start to rein in monetary support as fiscal stimulus is underway and the growth outlook improves, and expectations are that the ECB will start reining in asset purchases over the summer, in a flexible manner that allows the central bank to keep a close eye on spreads and step in if necessary.

Today – EZ and UK Construction PMIs, US and Canadian Jobs Reports, US Factory Orders, Fed’s Powell, ECB’s Lagarde, Villeroy, de Cos, PBoC’s Yi Gang, BoJ’s Kuroda, SNB’s Jordan & RBNZ’s Orr



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDCHF (+0.26%) has moved up from 15-week lows yesterday (0.6907) to rally to 0.6936. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI 54 and spiking higher, MACD signal line and histogram rising but remain below 0 line from yesterday. Stochs. still moving higher and into OB zone. H1 ATR 0.0007, Daily ATR 0.0063.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 16th June 2021.

Market Update – June 16 – FX Markets waiting for FOMC.


Market News Today – US Markets closed down from new ATH’s (USA500 -8.5 4246) Mixed US data BIG miss for Retail Sales but PPI was stronger than expected. Dollar awaits FOMC – FX markets moribund. (USDIndex 90.44, EURUSD 1.2125, and Cable 1.4090. JPY holds the break of 110.00 & Yields the break of 1.50%. USOil rallied again to $72.50 following API inventory drawdowns. Gold dipped to $1850 and back to $1860 now. – Biggest move – VIX.F rallied over 13% to 19.42. Overnight – JPY data weaker than expected but a huge jump in Exports to a 41 year high. – UK Inflation (2.1%)- stronger than expected following big rise in jobs data yesterday.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is little changed, as are U.S. futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has moved up 0.5 bp to 1.497%, as markets wait for the FOMC announcement today. The big question will be whether the Fed signals that it is starting to think about tapering and investors are likely to trade cautiously into the event. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 0.019% and 0.153% respectively. US futures narrowly mixed, with the Nasdaq future outperforming and up 0.5%.

Today – Chinese Industrial Output and Retail Sales, Canadian CPI, FOMC Policy Decision and Fed Chair Powell, US-Russia Summit, UK Economic Update (Treasury), ECB’s Elderson, de Guindos




Biggest Mover @ (07:30 GMT) VIX.F (+12.5%) gapped on open to 19.42 following a test of the pre-pandemic low on Monday at 16.00. Closed yesterday at 17.17. Next resistance 20.00, support 20-day MA at 18.65. Faster MAs remain aligned higher, RSI OB and flat at 78, MACD signal line and histogram rising and significantly above 0 line. H1 ATR 0.3300 Daily ATR 1.14.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 18th June 2021.

Market Update – June 18 – The FED still dominates.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

Market News Today – USD holds on to gains (USDIndex test 92.00) US Equities mixed – (USA100 +0.87% & new ATH, USA30 -0.62%). BoJ left policy unchanged and stuck to its ultra-accommodative policy setting & extended COVID funding. JPY Inflation came in better than expected to with the CORE reading turning positive (just) for the first time since April 2020. Asian shares up but closing lower for the week. Round Number Friday – EUR down to1.1900, JPY 110.00 and Cable 1.3900. 10 yr Yields 1.51% but the spreads between US Corporate debt and US Government debt is at a 10-year low¹ – and could explain the tech rally yesterday following the Hawkish FED. Gold dived to $1770 (open the week at $1875; -5.6%) trades at $1785 now. USOil

Overnight – Big beat for German PPI (1.5% vs 0.7%, & 0.8% prev.) and big miss for UK Retail Sales (-1.4% vs 1.5%, & prev: 9.2%)

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower and in cash markets Eurozone bonds are also finding some support, although the U.S. 10-year rate has lifted 0.7 bp to 1.51% overnight. Stocks traded narrowly mixed across Asia and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also little changed, while US futures are slightly higher, led by a 0.3% rise in the NASDAQ. With growth stabilising the tide is slowly turning, although it is clear that central banks will be taking a very, very cautious approach on tapering, with policy set to remain extremely accommodative for a long time to come. It seems unlikely that the BoE will break the line when it meets next week. – Action Economics

Today – Little new news today – EU Econ Ministers meeting & Fed’s Kashkari, its also Quadruple Witching Friday (Quarterly Index & Stock Options and Futures Contracts all expire – 3rd Friday of the Quarter)



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.59%) turned lower again, has been under 20-day moving average since June 3 from 78.76. Breached 78.00 yesterday and 77.00 today. Faster MAs remain aligned lower, RSI 24 & OB, MACD signal line and histogram falling and significantly below 0 line. H1 ATR 0.130 Daily ATR 0.620.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 23rd June 2021.

Market Update – June 23 – Dollar Dips & Equities Stronger post Powell.



Market News Today – Equities rebound (USA100 +0.79% to new ATH) & USD slips again (USDIndex 91.80). Catalyst was Powell comments “inflation alone would not be enough to prompt rate rises” “we will wait for evidence of actual inflation or other imbalances.” Asian markets also recovered, AUD & JPY PMIs missed expectations. US 10 yr yields fell as USD cooled bounce again too; 1.47%. EUR holds over 1.1900 at 1.1925, JPY up again to 110.80 & Cable (5 years since Brexit vote today) up to 1.3945. Gold rotates at $1780, USOil down from Monday’s spike to $73.80 but holds over $72.00 as $100 Brent gossip swirls¹ & OPEC tests the waters on production increases.

CB-Speak Daly said bank was right to talk about slowing the pace of asset purchases, but economy is “not yet here” for such a decision, & even talk of changing rates is not on the table. Officials are looking to Fall data to get more clarity on the status of the economy & its developments. Inflation could approach 3% in the near future & the data is expected to remain volatile. Mester – inflation expectations have risen, but it has not yet reached an alarming level – it will hit between 3% to 3.5%, but after that it will drop to the Fed’s 2% year-over-year target. A better picture of the labor force will be seen in September, after schools reopen & increased unemployment benefits end.

European Open – The September 10-year Bund future is slightly higher, as are US futures. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -0.019% and -0.050% respectively, while US futures are fractionally higher, after Fed Chairman Powell managed to sooth nerves yesterday with calming words on the rate outlook and by reiterating that inflation pressures will be transitory.

Today – EZ, UK and US PMIs (Flash), ECB’s Lagarde, de Guindos; Fed’s Bowman, Bostic, Rosengren, and supply from Germany and the US.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPNZD (+0.29%) First down day in 9 yesterday to close at 1.9845. Rallied on open over PP and 50Hr MA (1.9985) to 1.9900. Next resistance R1 1.9931. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 55 but neutral, MACD signal line and histogram rising weakly & remain below 0 line. Stochs declined from OB & now neutral. H1 ATR 0.0023 Daily ATR 0.0122.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

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Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 25th June 2021.

Market Update – June 25 – USD slips, Stocks at new all-time highs.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky
Market News Today – Dollar a tad weaker, but holds onto gains, USDIndex 91.80, USA100 & 500 at ATHs. Agreed $1.2 tn Infrastructure plan lifts sentiment. However, mixed US data yesterday, Claims missed, GDP confirmed at 6.4% & Durable Goods missed. All US Banks passed stress tests late in the day. BoE – no change & no hawkish surprises but looks like tapering measures will start after the summer. GBP hit. Overnight Asian markets also bid, NZD bounces and JPY weakest. US 10yr yields 1.49%. EUR holds at 1.1950, JPY under 111.00 to 110.75 & Cable tests under 1.3900 now back to 1.3925. Gold still rotates at $1780/75, USOil Holds over $72.50 now.

European Open – German GfK consumer confidence much better than expected at -0.3 vs -6.9 in the previous month. The September 10-year Bund future is slightly lower, as are US futures. Gilts led a rally in EGBs yesterday after the BoE affirmed its accommodative policy stance, but there could be a slight pullback as markets continue to digest the statement. DAX and FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are up 0.3% and 0.1% respectively, alongside broad gains in US futures.

Today – US PCE Price Index, Personal Income and Consumption, Fed’s Williams, Rosengren, Mester, Kashkari; ECB’s de Cos.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.25%) Rallied from test of 200HR MA yesterday at 0.7745. Faster MAs aligned higher, RSI 65.7 and rising, MACD signal line and histogram rising remain significantly above 0 line. Stochs rising and testing OB zone again. H1 ATR 0.0007 Daily ATR 0.0045.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.