Daily Market Analysis from NewForex Broker

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The review of the Asian market

On Monday the Asian markets were confidently rising. The Japanese index Nikkei continued its rise, gaining 1.1% to 19,769.71. Thus, it refreshed a new 15-year high. NewForex analyst Joseph Schwartz points out a positive sentiment of the Japanese stock market.

The broader Topix picked up 0.7% to 1,592.25. The JPX-Nikkei Index 400 edged up to 0.8% to 14,467.45. The MSCI index, which includes Asian-Pacific stocks, advanced 0.4%.

The Chinese shares are rising the ninth week in a row. The CSI300 index, which includes the largest companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen, surged 2.0% and is at 3,972.06. The Shanghai Composite climbed 2.0% to 3,687.73. Among the most active shares in Shanghai the following can be mentioned: Bank Of China (+1.1%), Agricultural Bank of China (+1.4%) and GD Power (+4.9%).

In Shenzhen the companies with high gains were: BOE Technology (+2.5%) and TCL Corp (+1.4%). The total trading volume of A shares in Shanghai was 53,5 billion shares, in Shenzhen — 32.2 billion shares.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: Oil prices fall again

On Monday, March 23rd, the oil futures plummeted. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil prices with the delivery in May slipped to $1.04 or 2.24% to $45.49 a barrel. In London Brent oil with the delivery in May lost $1.04 or 1.88% and is being traded at $54.28 a barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI is $8.79 a barrel.

On March 22nd the Oil Minister of Saudi Arabia said that the country is going to keep on their defending policy against the non-OPEC oil producers. Consequently, Saudi Arabia doesn’t want to change its oil strategy. NewForex analyst Luigi Campo states that if OPEC continues the production of about 30 mln. barrels of oil per day, then the oversupply of the market will reach 1.3 mln. barrels a day.

This year oil prices have been fluctuated one day declining due to the oversupply, another day increasing due to the strong dollar. The combination of the strong dollar and high interest rates will help to keep commodity prices under control in 2015.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The mood in the Japanese market is changing


The Japanese index Nikkei tumbled in the trading on Thursday, investors sold off extensively the shares of hi-tech companies following the American investors. The index shed 1.4% and is at 19,471.12, the biggest fall in 10 weeks after a fresh 15-year high at 19.778.60 which was hit on Monday.

Among the high-tech companies, the shares of which were edging down, it’s worth mentioning Fujitsu (-3.1%), Sony (-3.3%). The broader Topix slipped to 1.5%, the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 slumped to 1.4%.

The mood of the Asian market has changed after the release of data about the spending on durable goods in the USA. The index number has dropped in February for the first time in six months. Export to the USA is one of the main directions for the Japanese economy.

At the same time the Japanese oil shares gained 0.1%, oil prices picked up 3%. Some analysts point out the signs of the sell-off of Japanese shares by foreign speculators, for instance, hedge funds. Japanese shares overtopped a lot of markets in this quarter. NewForex analyst Luigi Campo states that it is necessary to pay attention to such kind of changes. When the speculators start selling off, they can sell 2-3 trillion yen, consequently decreasing the Nikkei by 2,000 points.

In general the Japanese market is stable after an 11% rise of the Nikkei in this quarter. The news about the possibility of buying the shares by Japanese public investors like Government Pension Investment Fund gave support to the market.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex:The greenback is losing ground

In the trading on Thursday, March 26th, the greenback tumbled versus the basket of major currencies as investors are in the anticipation of the release of jobless claims in the USA. The dollar index shed 0.40% to 96.69. The currency pair EUR/USD picked up 0.30% to 1.1002, a high since March 5th.

The dollar has been under pressure after the publication of data about the spending of durable goods in the USA, including the transportation, the fall is 1.4% in February, although the experts expected a 0.4% rise. The buck has been losing ground since last week when at the meeting of the Fed it was announced that the interest rate will increase lower than it was predicted.

The pound advanced 0.43% against the greenback and is trading at 1.4943. The retail sales surged 0.7% in February in the UK.

The euro has strengthened after the confident rise of the consumer climate index in Germany, last month it was 9.7, in April 10.0 is expected. However, investors are cautious because of Greece, next week the Greek government should present its European partners the detailed plan of reforms.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The consumer inflation has stopped rising in Japan

In February the consumer inflation has stopped rising in Japan for the first time in 2 years. The Japanese economy went out of the recession period in the fourth quarter of 2014 but its recovery is still unsteady due to low household and business spending.

The data exerts influence on the central bank in the way of extending its monetary policy as dropping oil prices keep the inflation on a low level. NewForex analyst Aaron Kaufmann assumes that the Bank of Japan will not implement extra stimulus measures until the middle of the year.

Retail sales shed 1.8% in February in Japan, the household spending edged down to 2.9% during the same period.

The level of unemployment is at 3.5%, which is often called full employment. The positive factor is that prices in Japan are falling and salaries are rising. Last year the level of salaries increased by 1%, this year a 2% rise is expected. The factor of well-being returns and it should assist the recovery of the domestic demand.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The dollar gains ground after the new data from the U.S

The pound reached a week low against the greenback. The market sentiment is in favor of the U.S currency, it is explained by positive data from the USA.

The dollar gained support after the fresh data about the jobless claims in the USA. The index number slipped to a 5-week low. According to the U.S Department of Labor the number of residents applying for jobless benefits decreased by 9000 last week and is 282,000 in comparison with 291,000 (data of the second week in March).

The service sector in the USA has been rising with the highest rate in March since September last year.

The currency pair GBP/USD is at 1.4797, a low since March 20th, losing 0,20%. The possible level of support for the pair is 1.4720, a low since March 20th, level of resistance — 1.4995, a high of Thursday.

The pair EUR/USD is at 1.0801, a low since March 23, the pair shed 0.29%. The sentiment round the single currency is fragile due to the negotiations with Greece.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The review of Asian markets

In the trading on Monday, March 30th, the Nikkei picked up 0.7% after being in the negative zone and currently it is at 19,411.40. The broader Topix gained 0.3% and stays at 1,557.77, the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 has surged 0.3% as well and is at 14,182.85. However, the oil shares are losing. Inpex Corp shed 2.5%, JX Holdings edged down to 2.8%.

The Chinese shares supported by the hopes of the stimulus policy efficiency hit a 7-year high. The CSI300, which includes the largest companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen, advanced 2.9% to 4,088.18. The Shanghai Composite gained 2.6% to 3,786.57.

The shares of companies connected with infrastructure have climbed 5.6% when the details of the plan directed at the improvement of links between Asia, Europe and Asia became known. The project will create a new silk road which will connect continents and in 10 years the trading volume between the countries involved might reach $2.5 trillion on an annual basis.

Shares got support after the statement of central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan who confirmed the expectations of further monetary easing to boost the slowing down economy of China.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex:The U.S currency holds highs against the euro

In the trading on Monday, March30th, the euro tumbled versus the American currency. Confident data about the economic state of the USA and the comments of Fed Chair Jannet Yellen continue to lend support to the buck.

In the morning trading in Europe the pair EUR/USD was at 1.0853 shedding 0.34%. The possible level of support for the pair is 1.0765 of March 23 and resistance — 1.1052 of March 26. According to the Commerce Department in the fourth quarter the US economy advanced 2.2% at an annual rate.

Greece is still in focus of Eurozone. Last Friday Prime-Minister of the country Alexis Tsipras presented a new plan of reforms. The representatives of the European Union, the International Monetary Fund and the European Central Bank will examine the document as the old one was rejected. On Monday the official data indicated a slower decline of consumer prices in Spainin March (0.7%) in contrast with the previous month (1.1%).

The euro is stable against the British currency. The pair EUR/GBP is at 0.7308.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: Oil prices fall in the anticipation of outcome of the negotiations

On Tuesday, March 31, oil prices keep on declining a third session in a row amidst the negotiations of western diplomats over Tehran’s nuclear program.

If the agreement between Iran and diplomatic community is reached, a huge amount of crude oil will return to the oversupplied market.

On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil with the delivery in May reached an intraday low at $47.78 a barrel shedding 80 cents or 1.63%. Yesterday oil futures slipped to 19 cents or 0.39%. In March oil futures edged down to 8% in New York. Last week a total amount of oil in the USA was 466.7 mln. barrels.

In the Futures Exchange in London Brent oil with the delivery in May lost 62 cents or 1.1% and is traded at $55.67 a barrel. In the previous trading session Brent oil slipped to 12 cents or 0.21%. In general, oil prices have sharply declined in the last months as the OPEC refused to cut down its oil output and the USA pumped oil at its fastest pace, thus making the market oversupplied.

Today the spread between Brent and WTI is $7.78 a barrel.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The review of Asian indexes

In the trading on Wednesday Tokyo shares decline, investors sold off their securities to lock in the profit on the first day of the Japanese financial year and after the unsatisfactory results of the research displaying the business sentiment in Japan.

The Nikkei and Topix tumbled below a 25-day moving average, an important short-term support level. On Wednesday Nikkei shed 0.9% to 19,034.84. The Topix slipped to 0.9% as well and is at 1,528.99, the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 edged down to 1.0% and is at 13,890.43.

The Chinese shares demonstrated on the contrary positive results picking up more than 1% on Wednesday, the factory industry of the country has unexpectedly increased in March. The PMI rose to 50.1 in March in contrast with the previous month (49.9).

The CSI300 gained 1.6% and is at 4,114.87, the Shanghai Composite surged 1.4% to 3,799.85. The Hang Seng advanced 0.7% to 25,064.63.

The amount of retail investors continues to rise, last week 1.67 mln. new stock accounts were opened in China, which is close to a historical high.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The euro keeps on rising

In the trading on Wednesday, April 1st, the euro is gaining against the U.S currency. In March the manufacturing purchasing managers’ index of Eurozone was rising at the quickest rate in the last 10 months indicating that the recovery of the economy is gathering pace.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index reached 52.2 in March exceeding the expectations of experts. The growth is observed in Ireland, Spain, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands, a weak euro turned out to be beneficial for producers and increased the competitiveness in export markets. NewForex analyst David Fineberg also mentions that the input prices have edged up in the last 7 months, while selling prices stay on the same level indicating the easing of the deflation pressure.

The pair EUR/USD is at 1.0749. The euro has gained ground against the yen and the pound. The pair EUR/JPY advanced 0.17% and is trading at 129.12, EUR/GBP surged 0.48% to 0.7277. The British currency is under pressure due to the coming Parliamentary elections on May 7th. This event is a deterrent for the growth of the pound amidst the rising PMI index to 54.4 in March which is an 8-months high.

The dollar index climbed 0.09% to 98.77.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: Gold prices are falling

On Thursday gold prices are holding above $1,200, investors are in the expectation of the employment data from the USA.

In the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures with the delivery in June edged down to $2.20 or 0.18% and are traded at $1,206.00 a troy ounce. The possible level of support for futures is $1,178.20 (a low of March 31), resistance — $1,220.40 (a high of March 26).

On Wednesday gold prices edged up to $1,208.70, a high since March 26th. This level became an intraday high in two months. Silver futures with the delivery in May shed 9.1 cents or 0.51% and are traded at $16.96 a troy ounce.

Newforex analyst Luigi Campo claims that weak economic data from the USA added concerns about the state of the US economy and keeping interest rate on the same level in the nearest future. In March the manufacturing activity in the country has reached a low in 14 months.

The greenback is under pressure due to the possible delay of the interest rate increase by the Fed. The dollar index has slipped to 0.52% today and is at 98.02.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The greenback loses ground against the euro

On Thursday the euro continues its uptrend against the U.S currency. In the morning trading in Europe the euro picked up 0.6% against the buck and is traded at $1.0825 at the moment of writing the article. Investors are relying on positive data about the manufacturing activity in Eurozone and unexpectedly weak manufacturing and employment data in the USA. The recent signs of slowing down US economy convinced some investors of the onward easing of the greenback, however the majority of investors are certain that the highs of the dollar are to come.

The euro is 10% lower versus the buck this year. As NewForex analyst David Fineberg assumes the current steadiness of the single currency means that there is still some field for its further decline.

The European indexes are stable today. The Stoxx Europe 600 index shed 0.1% in the morning trading. On Wednesday the S&P 500 slipped to 0.4%.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The greenback rises in the Asian trading

In the Asian trading on Friday, April 3rd, the U.S currency demonstrates a rise. The pair EUR/USD is traded at 1.0869 losing 0.11%. AUD/USD shed 0.18% and is traded at 0.7578, USD/JPY is at 119.71 edging down to 0.01%. The dollar index picked up 0.05% and reached 97.83.

The greenback extended its losses overnight even after the information that the number of jobless claims hit a 9-week low and the trading deficit is at a low since February 2009. The buck has not considerably changed its position after reaching an agreement on key parameters with Iran.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor the amount of initial claims for unemployment benefits has dropped by 20.000 last week and is 268,000, a low since January. Traders are in the expectation of Friday employment release in the USA showing March data. It is expected that the number of non-farm jobs increased by 248.000 last month. Economists consider that the level of unemployment will stay at 5.5%.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The demand for gold is growing again

In the trading on Monday, April 6th, the gold price has risen, investors are more convinced of the delay of the interest rate increase by the Fed after the release of weak employment data in the country.

In the New York Mercantile Exchange gold futures with the delivery in June edged up to $17.90 or 1,49%. In the morning trading in Europe $1,218.80 was given for the troy ounce. The possible level of support is $1,178.20, a low from March 31, a level of resistance is $1,223.00, a high from March 2.

On Friday the US Labor Department published data according to which 126,000 new jobs were registered in March. However, the economists expected a stronger rise to 245,000. NewForex analyst Sara Rosenstein points out that it is the lowest growth since December 2013. Unexpectedly weak data caused concerns about the stable progress of the US economy.

The dollar index after a Friday’s 7-day low at 96.55 is trading at 96.92.

Silver futures with the delivery in May gained 48.7 cents or 2.92% and are traded at $17.18 a troy ounce.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: Oil futures gain ground after losses

On Monday oil futures have surged more than $1 a barrel after the decision of Saudi Arabia to increase its oil prices for Asian countries. Brent oil is gaining ground after losing more than 5% on Thursday trades. Today Brent oil with the delivery in May is traded at $56.90 a barrel. The U.S crude oil with the delivery in May has picked up $1.49 and is at $50.63 a barrel.

Spread between Brent oil and WTI is $6.27 a barrel in comparison with $5.81 by close of markets on Thursday. On Friday there were no oil trades due to Easter holidays.

On Thursday oil prices have sharply declined after the negotiations between West and Iran, the result of the negotiations might be the input of Iranian crude oil into the world market which is already oversupplied. However, oil prices have regained later, experts assume that it would take not less than several months before the export of Iranian oil starts.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: Nikkei hit a 15-year high

On Wednesday Tokyo’s benchmark index hit a 15-year high, Japanese retail investors directed a considerable amount of cash to new stock mutual funds. The Nikkei picked up 0.8% and at the moment it is at 19,789.81 closing on the high since April 2000, even amidst some losses of Wall Street stocks the day before.

In April the Nikkei has climbed 3.0%, two new equity investment trusts which were opened this week contributed to the rise. They received about 160 billion yen or 1.3 billion dollars from investors.

The signs of increasing demand from Japanese investors were positively met in the market. Some investors move the U.S shares to Japanese or other Asian markets. NewForex analyst David Fineberg considers that Japanese shares look quite attractive now.

On Wednesday the Bank of Japan decided to continue it expansion of the monetary policy, although few investors expect the increase of the assets purchasing volume in the nearest time as the key Japanese consumer inflation index is sliding down.

The broader Topix picked up 0.6% and is traded at 1,588.47, the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 surged 0.7% to 14,448.52.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: The euro continues its decline

In the trading on Monday, April 13th, the euro was lower against the U.S currency the sixth trading in a row. The program of the ECB directed to stimulate bond purchasing decreases the value of the single currency. The pair EUR/USD shed 0.43% to 1.0555, a low since March 16th. NewForex analyst Joseph Schwartz points out that the single currency has slipped to 13% against the greenback since the beginning of this year.

The euro edged down against the yen, the pair EUR/JPY slumped to 127.27. The sentiment around the euro is still unsteady due to the position of Greece in Eurozone. A lot of experts are in the anticipation of the meeting of the European Finance Ministers which is due to be held on April 24th.

The dollar index reached a month low and is at 100.17. The pound has dropped against the buck. The pair GBP/USD lost 0.19% and is traded at 1.4604, a low since June 2000. The pound declined after the data that was released on Monday, the industrial production picked up only 0.1% in February, although a 0.4% rise was expected.

Export-related currencies are under pressure due to the economic situation in China. Trading proficit edged down from $60.60 billion in February to $3.08 billion in March. Analysts expected a decline to $45.35 last month.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: Oil has risen to $59

Brent crude oil edged up to $59 a barrel today, April 15th, amidst the acute situation in the Middle East and the downturn of the production in the USA. The oil production in North Dakota (the US) considerably dropped, it slumped to 15 000 barrels a day in February in contrast to January. In these conditions the total amount of wills hit a record high.

The representatives of Energy Information Administration of the USA claim that the production of shale oil would decline by 45 000 to 4.98 mln. next month which will be the first fall since 2011. NewForex analyst Joseph Schwartz stresses that the world oil markets will need more time to reduce the stocks as supply grows faster than demand.

The oil production by OPEC advanced to 31.02 mln. barrels a day last month which is near its 2-year high.

WTI oil futures have been climbing for the fifth session in a row. On the New York Mercantile Exchange oil with the delivery in May reached an intraday high at $54.22. On Tuesday it surged $1.38 or 2.66% and closed at $53.29.

 

[Volfovich]

Forex News from New Forex: Asian markets show positive dynamics

On Thursday, April16th, Japanese shares are on the rise as purchases of oil and mining shares increase. The Nikkei 225 picked up 0.1% and is at 19,885.77. The JPX-Nikkei Index 400 surged 0.6% to 14,498.14. The broader Topix advanced 0.7% to 1,599.42.

Brent crude oil hit its high of 2015 reaching $63 a barrel on Thursday after gaining more than 5% during the previous trading session.

The Chinese shares demonstrate the highest profit since the start of the year. The Shanghai branch of China’s central bank demands from the commercial lenders to check the risks of their margin trading and provide the margin trading accounts. The inspection is held as retail investors dominate in the stock market, they dash into the market borrowing huge amounts of money to buy shares and thus they push the trading turnover to record highs.

The CSI300, which includes the largest companies of Shanghai and Shenzhen, jumped 3.0% to 4,513.55, the Shanghai Composite edged up to 2.7% to 4,194.82.