Daily Market News by Xtreamforex

[xtreamforex]

AUD/USD FINDS BIDS SUB-0.7900, RBA MINUTES, FIRMER DXY STILL WEIGH

• Clings to key support near 0.7890.
• USD firmer in thin markets.
• RBA talks down AUD strength.

Fresh bids emerged once again near the 0.7890 support area, allowing a tepid bounce in the AUD/USD pair back above the 0.79 handle, as markets assess the minutes of RBA’s January February meeting.

AUD/USD: Focus shifts to Aus construction and wages data

The spot came under fresh selling pressure last hour and fell back below the 0.79 handle, in a delayed reaction to the RBA’s Feb monetary policy meeting minutes, which reiterated that a rising AUD would impede pick-up in economic growth, inflation while adding that Low rates helping reduce unemployment, lift inflation. These RBA headlines suggested that the Australian central bank could very well remain in a wait-and-see mode in the near-term before future rate hikes.

Moreover, a fresh bout of the USD buying across the board, helped by rising Treasury yields, also knocked-off the major in a bid to test the key support. However, the bulls held on to the technical support, now pushing the rates above the 0.7900 levels.

The pair is likely to get influenced by the USD dynamics and risk trends amid holiday-thinned light trading and a lack of fresh fundamental catalysts until the release of the Australian construction work done and wage price index data due out tomorrow.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...ub-0-7900-rba-minutes-firmer-dxy-still-weigh/

 

[xtreamforex]

AUD/USD FALLS BACK DOWN FOLLOWING CONSTRUCTION DATA DISAPPOINTMENT

• AUD/USD retreats on construction miss.
• USD getting a push from bond yields.

AUD/USD has dropped lower again following a pick up in early Tokyo trading, and the pair is currently back down below 0.7880.

The Aussie slipped against the Greenback after a disappointment in the Construction Work Done figures for the 4th quarter of 2017, coming in at a 19.4 contraction, widely missing the median market forecast of a 10% decline, and a deep correction from the previous reading of 16.6%. While Wage Price Index data posted a mild beat over forecasts with year-on-year posting 2.1% versus the anticipated 2%, mixed economic data points for Australia continues to pigeonhole the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in wait-and-see mode. Headline growth figures for Australia continue to lag behind global trends, and the RBA is left in a holding pattern, unlikely to raise key rates into 2020 while central banks around the world prepare to begin tightening their respective easy fiscal policies and prepare to fight inflation.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...k-following-construction-data-disappointment/

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD CLAIMS THE 0.73 HANDLE IN TOKYO

• The Kiwi breaking upwards in early trading.
• Little data for the Kiwi leaves the door open for knock-on volatility.

The NZD/USD is trading up in the Tokyo markets, breaking passed the 0.7300 handle as of writing.

With the NZD slated for a light showing data-wise this week, the NZD/USD’s focus will be driven largely by market sentiment, with the Kiwi currently spiking thanks to knock-on Yen buying to mark the beginning of the week.

Key economic data points for New Zealand were recently revised upwards, but weak points remain within the Kiwi’s economy, and with growth lagging behind global trends, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to stand pat on rates well into 2020.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-claims-0-73-handle-tokyo/

 

[xtreamforex]

USD/JPY FLIRTS WITH 107.00 HANDLE, RISK REVERSALS SHED JPY CALL BIAS

• Risk reversals show demand for JPY calls (bullish bets) is falling.
• Eyes Powell testimony

The USD/JPY pair’s recovery from 106.38 yesterday has left a higher low on the daily chart, indicating a short-term bottom has been made at 105.55 (Feb. 16 low).

Further, the one-month 25 delta risk reversals (JPY1MRR) gauge indicates falling demand for JPY calls (buy Yen). As of writing, the risk reversals are being paid at 1.4 JPY calls vs. 2.4 JPY calls seen on Feb. 12. The drop in the JPY volatility premium (from 2.4 to 1.4) indicates JPY bullish bias has weakened.

The technical setup and the activity in the options market clearly indicate the investors believe the new Fed chair Jerome Powell will remain measured in his first testimony (due later today).

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...-00-handle-risk-reversals-shed-jpy-call-bias/

 

[xtreamforex]

AUD/JPY STUMBLES TO 83.50 ON CHINA PMI MISS

• The AUD/JPY is dumping on China PMI miss.
• Bearish pressure continuing to mount on pair as Aussie loses grip.

The Aussie has fallen against the Yen, giving up the overnight session’s gains and the pair is now trading near the 83.50 handle and still moving jumpy.

A wide miss for Chinese PMI data has sent the Aussie tumbling in Asia markets; Manufacturing and Services PMIs both failed to match up with analyst expectations, and the market saw Manufacturing PMI come in at 50.3 versus the previous 51.3 and Services PMI drop to 54.4 following the previously reported figure of 55.3. The sudden decline in Manufacturing PMI sees the indicator barely holding onto positive territory, which doesn’t bode well for Australia’s largest trading partner, and traders have responded to the weakness by dumping the Aussie.

Australia doesn’t need the help from China right now, as economic data for the island country continues to middle in the face of unsustainable levels of household debt and restrained wage growth. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is stuck in a holding pattern on interest rates, awaiting any signs of improving economic growth, and the RBA has had to leave the door open for the possibility of future easing if things don’t begin to improve.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-stumbles-83-50-china-pmi-miss/

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD RE-ATTEMPTS 0.7200 POST-UPBEAT CHINA PMI

• Weighed by rising DXY, at five-week tops.
• Losses capped by upbeat Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI?
• Focus shifts to US data and Powell’s testimony.

The NZD/USD pair extended its bearish momentum for the third straight session and went to hit fresh three-week lows at 0.7187 levels amid strengthening demand for the US dollar across the board.

NZD/USD: Supported well above 200-DMA at 0.7167

The spot is seen making minor recovery attempts and looks to regain the 0.72 handle, as the bulls were offered some respite from the unexpected improvement seen in the Chinese manufacturing sector activity, as reported by Caixin earlier today.

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI surprises positively in Feb

However, it remains to be seen if the major can sustain the recovery mode, as risk-off sentiment seen across the Asian markets continue to weigh negatively on the higher-yielding currency, the NZD. Meanwhile, the Kiwi tracks the declines in its OZ neighbor,

Read more: http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/nzd-usd-re-attempts-0-7200-post-upbeat-china-pmi/

 

[xtreamforex]

AUD/JPY IS MILDLY BID, BUT COULD REGISTER A 6TH STRAIGHT WEEKLY LOSS

• The oversold AUD/JPY is witnessing a minor relief rally in Asia.
• Growing trade war concerns and risk aversion in stocks favor the downside in the pair.
• The pair is on track for the sixth straight weekly loss.

AUD/JPY, the regional risk barometer, is mildly bid in Asia despite the growing fears of a full-blown global trade war and risk aversion in equities.

As of writing, the cross is trading at 82.46 – up 0.40 percent from the overnight low of 82.16. The minor recovery could be associated with oversold conditions showed by the daily relative strength index (RSI).

Still, the pair look set to end lower for the sixth straight week, given it is trading at least 120 pips below the last week’s close of 83.75. Moreover, a 120 pip rally is easier said than done as Trump’s decision to impose steep tariffs on steel and aluminum imports, escalating tensions with China and other trading partners and rising prospects of higher inflation could keep the equities under pressure.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/aud-jpy-mildly-bid-register-6th-straight-weekly-loss/

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD SAGS AS CAIXIN PMI SLIPS, NZ TREASURY HIGHLIGHTS SPARE CAPACITY

• The Kiwi is weakening on softer Asia data.
• A thin macro schedule for the week heading into NFP Friday.

The Kiwi is subdued in Monday trading, testing closer to Friday’s low of 0.7218.

The NZD/USD pair heads into the new week fighting the slide, with the Chinese Caixin Services PMI slipping to 54.2, missing the forecast 54.3 after the previous period’s 54.7.

Adding to the Kiwi’s woes is the New Zealand Treasury’s Monthly Economic Indicators (MEI); while the data is mainly positive, several caveats were underlined that hamper any real breakout potential for the NZD/USD pair. The Treasury noted that despite unemployment continuing to drop (down to 4.5% in December) and consumption spending ticking upwards, under-employment remains stable and wage growth remains restrained, highlighting the spare capacity still running through the New Zealand economy.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...-slips-nz-treasury-highlights-spare-capacity/

 

[xtreamforex]

GBP/USD INCHING TOWARDS 1.39, BOE’S HALDANE TO SET THE TONE LATER

• The Sterling is still trying to correct a slowly-sinking ship.
• The BOE’s Haldane to speak later today; a bullish tone is expected.

The GBP/USD pair is middling ahead of the London markets, reaching an overnight session high of 1.3862 before giving up Asia’s gains to trade back near 1.3845.

The Sterling has drifted lower against the US Dollar for most of February, and the GBP is geared up to put an end to that with the pair bouncing upwards recently after digging in its heels from the swing low of 1.3712 on March 1st. Sterling data is spread thin today, featuring a low-tier 30-year bond auction taking place and a potentially market-moving speech from the Bank of England’s (BOE) Chief Economist, Andy Haldane. Haldane will be speaking at the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures, and Commerce beginning at 18:15 GMT, and although it’s highly unlikely that Haldane will be providing anything new in the way of forward guidance for Sterling traders, a hawkish tone and upbeat outlook from the Monetary Policy Committee member will give the Sterling the boost it needs to start climbing back up the charts.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-usd-inching-towards-1-39-boes-haldane-set-tone-later/

 

[Sforextrader]

very good keep continue

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD – RESILIENT TO RISK-OFF IN EARLY ASIA, YIELD DIFFERENTIAL RISES IN NZD-POSTIVE MANNER

• Kiwi stuck in a 25-pip range of 0.73-0.7775 in Asia, despite risk-off.
• 10Y NZ-US yield spread rises in the NZD-positive manner.

Trump’s Chief Economic Advisor Gary Cohn’s resignation boosted trade war fears and weighed over risk assets in early Asia. The S&P 500 futures fell almost 1.5 percent and the Japanese Yen rose across the board.

Also, the dairy product prices fell at the GlobalDairyTrade auction, with whole milk powder declining amid an increase in supply.

Still, the NZD remained relatively resilient, possibly due to favorable yield spread. The 10-year NZ-US yield spread rose to 16 basis points (bps) yesterday from 10 basis points. As of writing, the spread stands at 18 basis points, while the Kiwi is trading marginally weak at 0.7285.

The currency pair rose from 0.7221 to 0.7311 yesterday after news hit the wires that North Korea is willing to hold talks with the US over its nuclear weapons programme.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...-yield-differential-rises-nzd-postive-manner/

 

[xtreamforex]

USD/JPY SEES LITTLE ACTION AFTER BOJ MAINTAINED STATUS QUO

• BOJ kept rates unchanged as expected.
• Upgraded assessment of overseas economies
• USD/JPY sees little action, remains bid on fading N.Korea risks.
• Focus of Kuroda speech.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) kept the interest unchanged as expected, stuck to its upbeat view on the economy and upgraded the assessment of overseas economies. Also, the central bank kept yield curve control target at zero percent. As per Reuters report, “the decision was made by an 8-1 vote with board member Goushi Kataoka dissenting on the view that the BOJ should speed up bond buying to further push down longer-term yields.”

However. the USD/JPY is not impressed. The pair continues to trade at 106.70 – the level seen before the BOJ rate decision. As of writing, the upside is likely being capped due to BOJ’s weak comments on housing investment.

The spot hit a high of 106.94 earlier today as fading North Korea risks triggered much-awaited correction in the overbought Japanese Yen.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/usd-jpy-sees-little-action-boj-maintained-status-quo/

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD EXTENDING PAST 0.73 HANDLE DESPITE WANING RISK APPETITE

• Kiwi higher in Asia to kick off the new week, but little macro data for the NZD this week.
• Japanese cronyism headlines are weakening risk assets, but Kiwi remaining resilient.

The Kiwi is on the upside in the early Monday session, testing up into 0.7320 in the Tokyo markets.

The NZD/USD has been climbing steadily in March, following commodities higher in the face of the ongoing trade war risks spurred on by Donald Trump’s steel and aluminum import tariffs. Little data is slated for the Kiwi for the first half of the week, but the Business PMI on Thursday may give Kiwi bulls something to think about, depending on how the US Monthly Budget Statement goes over today at 18:00 GMT.

The top is getting taken off of risk assets in the Asia session as the Japanese political drama continues to unfold. Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, may have sold government land at a steep discount to a school operator with ties to Abe’s wife, and allegations that Finance Minister Aso forged documents related to the sale of the land are beginning to fly along the wires.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-...ast-0-73-handle-despite-waning-risk-appetite/

 

[xtreamforex]

EUR/USD – FOCUS ON US INFLATION AND YIELD DIFFERENTIAL

• The EUR/USD rally has stalled, so yield differential could come into play.
• An above-forecast US CPI may send risk assets lower, EUR to feel the heat as well, but may outperform other majors.

Traditional FX market correlations like yield differential and exchange rate broke down in the fourth quarter of 2017. Coming into 2017, EUR/USD was solidly bid, despite widening US-DE (German) two-year and 10-year yield spread.

However, the rate differential will likely come into play, given the euphoric rally in EUR/USD seems to have stalled. Since early Feb, the spot has been trading 1.21-1.25 range.

As of writing, the spot is trading at 1.2335 and the 2-year US-German yield spread stands at a record high of 285 basis points (bps).

The spread may rise further in the USD-positive manner if the US February CPI(due at 12:30 GMT) beats estimates. In this case, the EUR/USD could drop below 1.2298, adding credence to Friday’s bearish outside day candle.

That said, the common currency could still outperform other majors as the hotter-than-expected US CPI will likely push yields higher and equities lower.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/eur-usd-focus-us-inflation-yield-differential/

 

[xtreamforex]

EUR/USD – BULL CASE STRENGTHENS, EYES DRAGHI SPEECH, US RETAIL SALES DATA

1. Euro looks north as trade war fears flare again.
2. Focus on Draghi speech.
3. Dismal US data could yield stronger rally to 1.25.

The common currency nudged higher in Asia, pushing the EUR/USD to a four-day high of 1.2412, courtesy of turbulence in Washington and increased fears of full-blown US-China trade war.

China may retaliate by taking strong measures

In past trade confrontations with the US, China has often backed off, according to a Reuters report. But this time the world’s second-largest economy may retaliate with tariffs that hurt US agriculture and manufacturing sector.
Euro could move above 1.2446 (March 8 high) if China responds with strong words to news of broader US tariffs on Chinese imports.

Draghi will likely sound dovish

ECB’s Draghi, scheduled to speak at 08:00 GMT, will likely reiterate, there is no urgency in removing accommodation given the lack of inflation pressure. The Eurozone will also see ECB’s Praet speech at 8.45 GMT. Industrial production and employment change data for the Eurozone is due for release at 10.00 GMT. ECB’s Coeuré will wrap up the day with a speech at 16.15.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-n...il-sales-data/

 

[xtreamforex]

NZD/USD RECOVERS LOSSES AMID THE RISK-AVERSE MOOD IN STOCKS

1. Kiwi bounced off the ascending 5-day moving average.
2. Ignores risk-off mood in stocks.

The GDP-led drop in the NZD/USD was short-lived.
The NZD/USD pair found takers below the ascending 5-day moving average of 0.7311 and recovered to 0.7325 – a level seen ahead of the NZ GDP release.
The recovery from the session lows is somewhat surprising, given the risk assets are under pressure due to rising fears of US-China trade war. As of writing, the stocks in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan are trading modestly weaker. Further, the S&P 500 futures are reporting a 0.16 percent drop.
Ahead in the day, the pair will likely track the broader market sentiment and may turn positive if the European desks offer US dollar in response to global trade tensions.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-n...e-mood-stocks/

 

[xtreamforex]

EUR/USD: FOCUS ON DIVERGING CENTRAL BANK EXPECTATIONS AHEAD OF FED

• Euro under pressure due to diverging central bank expectations.
• ECB lift off in 2019, a distant dream.
• Yield differential widens in the USD-positive manner.

The common currency traded on the backfoot against the greenback in Asia and will likely extend losses in Europe and US session, courtesy of diverging monetary policy expectations.

The bullish breakout in the Euribor futures, as discussed on Friday, indicates the markets no longer expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise rates in 2019. Meanwhile, speculation is gathering pace that Fed would revise higher its dot plot chart to four 2018 rate hikes at the forthcoming meeting.

Consequently, the 10-year US-German yield spread has jumped to the highest level since late 2016. Thus, the EUR is becoming less attractive.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/eur-usd-focus-diverging-central-bank-expectations-ahead-fed/

 

[xtreamforex]

GBP/JPY SEARCHING TO REGAIN 149.00 AHEAD OF UK INFLATION DATA

• Sterling is shifting higher in Asia markets ahead of UK CPI data.
• Risk appetite, UK confidence is keeping the GBP elevated against the Yen.

The GBP/JPY is lifting in early Tokyo trading, testing into 148.90 after falling from a peak of 149.68 in Monday’s action.

The Sterling took a bullish turn against the Yen on Monday and is still on the high side despite walking back some of early Monday’s gains through the London-NY overlap. The pair is currently testing back upwards ahead of the UK’s Consumer Price Index figures.

UK inflation in the pipe

The UK CPI numbers will be dropping at 09:30 GMT today, along with a pile of other indicators including the Retail Price Index, Producer Price Index, Housing Price Index, and the PPI Core Output, but all eyes will be on year-on-year CPI figures. The Bank of England (BoE) is expected to begin lifting interest rates soon, and although analysts are expecting the headline year-on-year CPI to come in at 2.8% (prev. 3.0%), the minor contraction is expected, and the Sterling could go on a tear if the figures come out at or better than expectations.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/gbp-jpy-searching-regain-149-00-ahead-uk-inflation-data/

 

[xtreamforex]

EUR/USD: FOCUS ON FED’S DOT PLOT AND POWELL PRESSER

• The higher terminal rate could push up the treasury yields and the US dollar.
• Powell’s take on trade wars and inflation eyed.

The EUR/USD pair fell from 1.2355 to 1.2240 on Tuesday, creating another lower high on the daily chart, courtesy of the disappointing German Zew survey and the drop in the bond yields across the Eurozone.

Also, expectations of hawkish Fed and the rise in the short duration treasury yields seem to have played a role in pushing the pair lower.

As of writing, the spot is trading at 1.2262. The previous day’s close of 1.2242 was the weakest since March 1 and has opened doors for a drop to 1.2072 (100-day moving average).

Focus on Fed, an upward revision of terminal rate would be USD bullish

The USD will likely surge across the board if the Fed revises higher the 2019/2020 interest rate forecasts, signaling scope for a higher terminal rate. As of now, the market believes the new normal interest rate (also known as a terminal rate or peak rate) is 2.50-2.75 percent.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-news/eur-usd-focus-feds-dot-plot-powell-presser/

 

[xtreamforex]

BITCOIN PRICE FORECAST MARCH 22, 2018, TECHNICAL ANALYSIS


Bitcoin markets rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the $9000 level against the US dollar, as we are now testing significant resistance just above.


BTC/USD


Bitcoin rallied a bit during the trading session on Wednesday, reaching towards the $9200 level. We have broken above the $9000 level, so that’s a bullish sign but I think it’s only a matter of time before we get a bit of a push back. I see a lot of noise between here and $10,000 above, so if you cannot handle volatility, this will be the place to be. If we pull back from here, I think that the $8500 level could offer support. A breakdown below the $8400 level resumes the downtrend. Alternately, we could go higher, but I think $10,000 above is a major level to deal with. Any signs of exhaustion should be selling opportunities just waiting to happen between here and there, but if we were to break above the $10,000 level, it’s a very bullish sign. I think there is a lot of noise between here and there, so I would be very cautious about going long.

Read more : http://www.xtreamacademy.com/forex-f...ical-analysis/