Daily Market Outlook by Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 10, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was mostly weaker against its peers as the Senate version of the tax plan differed with that of the House. This signals that it would take much longer than initially expected before any of these are implemented, especially since Senate is also proposing a one-year delay for the cuts. US banks are closed for the holiday today but the UoM preliminary consumer sentiment index is still up for release and analysts are expecting to see an increase from 100.7 to 100.8.

EUR

The euro got a boost from upgraded forecasts by the EU, which supported the idea of tapering next year and possibly an interest rate hike later on. ECB member Coeure also had a testimony with hawkish remarks suggesting that QE cannot go on indefinitely. Data also turned out better than expected as the German trade balance showed a surplus of 21.8 billion EUR versus the estimated 21.0 billion EUR figure. French industrial production and private payrolls are due next, along with Italian industrial production data.

GBP

The pound was dragged lower by the usual slew of Brexit concerns and the possibility of delaying the trade talks to next year. UK manufacturing production data is due today and analysts are expecting to see a 0.3% uptick while industrial production could also post a 0.3% gain. The goods trade balance and NIESR GDP estimate are also lined up.

CHF

The franc ticked higher during the London session as risk aversion was present but gave up some of its ground to the commodity currencies later on. The Swiss jobless rate came in line with expectations at 3.1%. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so the franc could be sensitive to market sentiment.

JPY

The yen had a mixed run as the lack of top-tier data left it vulnerable to currency-specific factors. The tertiary industry activity index is up for release next and analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% dip. Yen price action could also hinge on risk sentiment and bond yields from here.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was able to hold on to its gains, thanks to dollar weakness and the continued strength in crude oil prices. Rumors that the crown prince of Saudi Arabia will take the throne soon reinforced the anti-corruption crackdown, which has been positive for the commodity. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 13, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed run against its counterparts at the end of the previous trading week as banks were closed for Veterans Day. The preliminary UoM consumer sentiment index fell from 100.7 to 97.8 versus the estimated improvement to 100.8 to reflect weaker optimism. Only the federal budget balance is due next and the focus could remain on tax reform.

EUR

The euro managed to hold its ground by the end of the week as sellers probably booked profits from their short positions earlier on. Data from the region was weaker than expected as French preliminary private payrolls and Italian industrial production came in short of consensus. Germany is set to print its wholesale price index and might show a 0.4% increase.

GBP

The pound was off to a weak start this week even as the UK printed stronger than expected manufacturing production data on Friday. Both industrial and manufacturing production rose 0.7% while the goods trade deficit was smaller than expected. Earlier today, the Rightmove HPI showed a 0.4% fall in house prices.

CHF

The franc was able to chalk up some gains against most of its rivals even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today so the currency could be sensitive to its counterparts' direction and overall market sentiment.

JPY

The yen was in a weak spot on Friday as risk appetite was present for the most part. Japanese tertiary industry activity fell 0.2% versus the projected 0.1% dip. Over the weekend, the PPI turned out stronger than expected with a 3.4% gain versus the projected 3.1% increase. Preliminary machine tool orders data is due next, along with a speech by BOJ Governor Kuroda.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to stay afloat against most of their peers as risk appetite was on their side. There were actually no major reports from Australia, New Zealand, and Canada then and none are due today as Canadian banks are closed for the holiday. With that, the comdolls could be off to a slow start or could stay sensitive to market sentiment.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 14, 2017)

USD

The US dollar recovered against some of its peers at the start of the week as traders renewed hopes for tax reform progress. There were no reports from the US economy yesterday while today has PPI data and a speech by Chairperson Yellen. The House is scheduled to vote on their version of the tax bill on Thursday and Trump will be giving a speech to urge GOP members to work together.

EUR

The euro advanced against most of its counterparts as it took some of the flows from the pound. Traders are also likely bracing for strong flash GDP data from Germany, Italy, and the entire region. ECB head Draghi has a testimony scheduled, ahead of the release of German ZEW economic sentiment data and euro zone industrial production.

GBP

The pound was off to a terrible start in the week on reports of troubles in UK PM May's government but traders quickly booked profits off the short positions ahead of this week's top-tier releases. For today, the CPI readings are due and the headline figure is expected to climb from 3.0% to 3.1% which might keep the BOE in hiking mode. Core CPI could also tick higher and BOE head Carney has a speech due.

CHF

The franc was able to scrape some gains on risk-off flows for the most part of the day. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has PPI numbers due. Producer prices could post a 0.2% uptick, slower than the earlier 0.5% gain.

JPY

The yen also took advantage of risk aversion yesterday but traders could be a little more cautious ahead of the Japanese preliminary GDP release later on. The economy likely grew 0.4%, slower than the earlier 0.6% expansion. BOJ head Kuroda has another speech lined up and he is expected to highlight the effectiveness of the QQE program and the challenges facing inflation.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was on rocky footing ahead of Chinese data due today. Industrial production and fixed asset investment are projected to fall, which would signal weaker demand for raw materials and commodities, while retail sales could tick higher. Crude oil is having trouble sustaining its climb on rising US oil rig counts, leading many to book profits off the positively-correlated Loonie as well.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 15, 2017)

USD

The US dollar gave up ground to most of its rivals once more as fresh setbacks to tax reform loomed. Senator Paul Rand shared plans to abolish an Obamacare provision tied to tax legislation and this could mean more complications when it comes to working with the House version, which is scheduled to be voted on this week. US PPI came in stronger than expected with 0.4% gains for both headline and core figures. CPI and retail sales are due today and strong data could still be upstaged by tax reform updates.

EUR

The euro was the strongest performer as it raked in gains across the board on upbeat GDP data. The German economy grew 0.8% versus the projected 0.6% expansion while Italy's GDP came in line with estimates at 0.5%. The region's growth figure landed at 0.6% as expected. French final CPI and the region's trade balance are lined up next.

GBP

The pound dipped upon seeing weaker than expected UK inflation data. Headline CPI came in weaker than expected for October as the reading held steady at 3.0% instead of improving to the estimated 3.1% figure. Core CPI was also unchanged at 2.7% instead of rising to 2.8%. The claimant count change and the average earnings index are lined up next, with the latter expected to fall from 2.2% to 2.1%.

CHF

The franc also advanced against most of its peers as PPI beat expectations. Producer prices rose 0.5% versus the projected 0.2% uptick to signal stronger inflationary pressures down the line. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment could push franc pairs around.

JPY

The Japanese yen advanced to the dollar and comdolls but was weaker against the European currencies. Japan's economy expanded by 0.3% in Q3 versus the projected 0.4% growth figure and the earlier 0.6% GDP reading. The GDP price index posted a 0.1% uptick as expected and the revised industrial production figure is due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was the weakest of the bunch as it got dragged lower by downbeat Chinese data and weak wage growth. Fixed asset investment, industrial production, and retail sales from China came in below consensus, signaling weaker demand for commodities. The quarterly wage price index came in at 0.5% versus 0.7%. US crude oil inventories data is due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 16, 2017)

USD

Dollar pairs are treading carefully as traders are waiting for more updates on tax reform and the House vote this week. Data came in mixed, with headline and core CPI up 0.1% and 0.2%, respectively. Headline retail sales rose 0.2% instead of printing a flat reading while the core version of the report showed a 0.1% uptick. Initial jobless claims, import prices, industrial production, and the Philly Fed index are due today.

EUR

The euro retreated from its strong climb earlier in the week despite stronger than expected data. The region's trade balance turned out stronger than expected at a surplus of 25 billion EUR versus the estimated 21.2 billion EUR reading. Final CPI readings are due today and no revisions to the 1.4% and 0.9% estimates for the headline and core figures are expected.

GBP

The pound regained some ground upon seeing mostly stronger than expected jobs data. Claimant count rose by 1.1K versus the projected 2K increase in joblessness while the average earnings index came in at 2.2% versus the estimated 2.1% increase. The previous reading also enjoyed an upgrade to 2.3% to reflect stronger wage growth than initially reported. UK retail sales data is due today and a 0.1% uptick is eyed.

CHF

The franc continued to advance against most of its peers as it raked in safe-haven gains away from the dollar. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday but the previous ones have been mostly stronger than expected, easing fears of SNB intervention. There are still no reports due from Switzerland today so franc pairs could take their cues from market sentiment.

JPY

The yen also took advantage of dollar weakness and was able to get a boost from the upgraded industrial production figure. The reading was revised from a 1.1% decline to just 1.0% for September. There are no major reports due from Japan today so the yen could continue to wait for clues from the dollar or overall sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie was one of the weakest performers for the day as it was bogged down by weak wage growth. Earlier today, Australia's jobs figures turned out weaker than expected as the economy added only 3.7K jobs in October versus the projected 17.8K gain. However, the previous reading was upgraded while the unemployment rate ticked lower. Falling oil prices on rising inventories weighed on the Loonie. New Zealand will release its quarterly PPI next and slower quarterly gains are eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 17, 2017)

USD

The US dollar drew some support from news that Congress has been able to pass the tax bill in their vote this week. However, the currency quickly returned its wins as traders turned their attention to the challenges that lie ahead. For one, Senate has a very different version and it would take a while before both chambers come up with a unified one. Data turned out mixed, with industrial production and capacity utilization coming in better than expected. Import prices and the Philly Fed index, on the other hand, disappointed. Only building permits and housing starts are due today.

EUR

The euro retreated slightly against its peers as there were no major reports out and traders focused on the political uncertainty in Germany. Final CPI readings were unchanged at 1.4% for the headline figure and 0.9% for the core reading. ECB head Draghi has a speech today and Italy will release its trade balance, just after the release of the region's current account balance.

GBP

The pound got some support from stronger than expected UK retail sales. The report showed a 0.3% uptick versus the projected 0.1% gain. There are no reports due from the UK economy today so traders might be extra sensitive to Brexit updates.

CHF

The franc gave up some of its previous wins as risk-taking returned. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then and the currency didn't draw any support from SNB member Maechler's speech. There are no reports due from the Swiss economy today so market sentiment is likely to stay in play.

JPY

The yen was also in a weak spot as risk appetite was present in the financial markets. There were also no reports out of Japan then and none are due today so risk sentiment could continue to push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Australian dollar drew support from stronger than expected jobs data as the economy added only 3.7K jobs in October but saw a large upgrade in the earlier figure to 26.6K. Underlying data also showed that full-time hiring was actually strong but the gains were nearly wiped out by falling part-time hiring. Canadian CPI figures are due next and downbeat data could weigh on the Loonie. New Zealand's quarterly PPI readings came in below expectations at 0.1% gains for input and output prices.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 20,2017)

USD

The US dollar had a mixed run despite stronger than expected building permits and housing starts data released on Friday. Building starts jumped from 1.23M to 1.30M versus the consensus at 1.25M while housing starts rose from 1.14M to 1.29M. Only the CB leading index is due today and analysts are expecting to see a 0.6% rebound after the earlier 0.2% dip.

EUR

The euro was off to a weak start on reports that German talks for a three-way coalition broke down. Angela Merkel is scheduled to meet with the German President to inform him that she failed to form a coalition with the Greens and FDP, which could lead to a call for elections again and more political uncertainty. Euro zone current account balance turned out stronger than expected on Friday and Draghi has a speech today.

GBP

The pound was also one of the weaker performers even though there were no major reports out of the UK. Political uncertainty is also in play, along with Brexit risks on businesses. BOE MPC member Ramsden has a testimony lined up today but traders could hold out for the Inflation Report hearings and Autumn Forecast Statement lined up later in the week.

CHF

The franc regained ground to most of its counterparts as it enjoyed most of the safe-haven gains. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy on Friday and none are due today so market sentiment could stay in play.

JPY

The yen also raked in plenty of gains at the end of the week as risk appetite was feeble. Over the weekend, Japan printed a stronger than expected trade surplus of 0.32 trillion JPY versus the projected 0.21 trillion JPY figure and the earlier 0.27 trillion JPY reading. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen could take its cue from market sentiment or bond yields.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie chalked up losses across the board but recovered some against the euro. The Loonie also weakened even though inflation readings were actually slightly better than expected. In New Zealand, the food price index posted a sharper 1.1% drop versus the earlier 0.2% dip. There are no reports due from the comdoll economies today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 21, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was able to chalk up some gains to its counterparts despite lower liquidity during the shortened work week. The CB leading index came in stronger than expected with a 1.2% gain versus the projected 0.6% uptick. Existing home sales data and a speech by Fed Chair Yellen are lined up today, but updates on tax reform and North Korean tensions could also push the dollar around.

EUR

The euro was able to recover some of its losses from the start of the week as jitters over Germany's political troubles faded. German PPI turned out stronger than expected with a 0.3% uptick versus the estimated 0.2% gain. There are no major reports due from the region today, so political updates could push the shared currency around.

GBP

The pound made quite a recovery on renewed optimism for Brexit negotiations only to retreat when EU's Barnier talked about potentially blocking a trade deal with the UK. BOE Inflation Report hearings are scheduled today and traders are likely to take cues from policymakers' inflation outlook and rate hike biases for next year.

CHF

The franc gave up some ground as risk appetite returned to the markets during the European session. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the trade balance on tap. Analysts expect the surplus to widen from 2.92 billion CHF to 3.21 billion CHF, which might be bullish for the franc unless risk-taking surges once more.

JPY

The yen also lost ground to risk-taking despite stronger than expected Japanese trade balance released over the weekend. The all industries activity index is up for release today and a 0.4% dip is eyed, following the earlier 0.1% uptick. Apart from that, market sentiment and bond yields could also push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The higher-yielding comdolls made a bit of a recovery during the day but the Loonie lagged behind on the lack of progress in NAFTA negotiations. The fifth round of talks is set to conclude with arguments over US auto parts demands, and there's also the chance of Trump walking out of the talks altogether. The RBA minutes highlighted the central bank's cautious stance, highlighting the weakness in wage growth and spending. Canadian wholesale sales data and New Zealand's global dairy trade auction are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 22, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was weaker against its peers during the US session as traders reacted to Yellen's unease about inflation and brought bond yields down. Data was actually stronger than expected as existing home sales rose from 5.37M to 5.48M. The FOMC minutes are due today before traders take off for the Thanksgiving holidays.

EUR

The euro slid a bit lower to most of its peers as the prospect of another election in Germany was brought up. Over the weekend, Merkel failed to secure a coalition and a minority government could bring even more uncertainty. There were no reports out of the euro zone then while today has the region's consumer confidence index on tap.

GBP

The pound tried to hold its ground as optimism over Brexit talks remained and the BOE Inflation Report hearings also gave the currency some support. Data was also upbeat with CBI industrial orders expectations jumping from -2 to +17 versus the consensus at +3. The Autumn Forecast statement is due next and traders are interested to find out how Brexit could factor in budget and outlook changes.

CHF

The franc managed to hold on to some of its gains even though risk-taking was in play. The safe-haven currency appears to be taking the flows away from the euro as the shared currency reacts to German political uncertainty. Swiss trade balance was actually weaker than expected at a surplus of 2.33B CHF versus the estimated 3.21B CHF figure. There are no reports from the Swiss economy today.

JPY

The yen also raked in some gains away from the dollar but was mostly weaker to the higher-yielders. Japan's all industries activity index was weaker than expected with a 0.5% dip versus the estimated 0.4% decline. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen could take its cue from market sentiment and bond yields once more.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi gave up some ground after seeing yet another decline in GDT dairy prices but the losses were muted as traders realized that this was probably due to higher production. Data in Canada also turned out below expectations with a 1.2% slide in wholesale sales, preventing the Loonie from taking advantage of the pickup in crude oil. The API reported a larger draw in stockpiles than expected and the EIA report is due today.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 23, 2017)

USD

The US dollar slumped against its peers when the FOMC minutes focused mostly on weak inflation concerns. In particular, the transcript indicated that many participants worried that inflation would run below the 2% target much longer than expected, hinting at a less aggressive pace of tightening for 2018. The UoM consumer sentiment index also saw a downgrade while inflation expectations were revised lower. US banks are closed for the Thanksgiving holidays so lower liquidity and higher volatility for major pairs are eyed.

EUR

The euro drew some support from rumors of ECB tightening while data also turned out slightly better than expected. The consumer confidence index ticked up from -1 to 0 instead of holding steady and reflecting pessimism. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs are due from Germany and France today, and stronger than expected figures could boost hopes of ECB hikes next year.

GBP

The pound took hits as Hammond announced downgraded growth forecasts released during the Autumn Forecast Statement and increased borrowing estimates for the next few years to offset the impact of Brexit. However, the currency stabilized when he also reassured that support will be provided to help the economy weather any uncertainties. The UK is scheduled to release its second estimate GDP for Q3 but no revisions to the earlier 0.4% estimate are expected.

CHF

The franc advanced against most of its peers even though there were no major reports out of the Swiss economy. The currency appeared to be able to benefit from dollar weakness as it took a larger share of risk-off flows. There are still no reports out of Switzerland today but SNB head Jordan has a speech so franc bulls could be on edge.

JPY

The yen also rallied on the heels of dollar weakness, despite the lack of top-tier data from Japan. Lower US bond yields also contributed to yen demand. There are no reports due from Japan today as banks are closed for the holiday.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Kiwi mostly shrugged off downbeat retail sales data as analysts had already predicted a slowdown on account of the end of the rugby season. Headline retail sales rose 0.2% versus the projected 0.4% uptick while core retail sales advanced 0.5% versus 0.9%. Crude oil popped higher on a larger than expected draw of 1.9 million barrels in EIA crude oil stockpiles. Canadian retail sales figures are lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 24, 2017)

USD

The US dollar chalked up another losing day as market participants continued to adjust their positions to account for the Fed's less upbeat inflation outlook. There were no reports out of the US economy yesterday as markets were closed for the Thanksgiving holidays while today has the flash manufacturing and services PMIs due. Analysts are expecting to see improvements from both industries.

EUR

The euro advanced against most of its peers as PMI readings turned out mostly stronger than expected. Only the German flash services PMI disappointed but it still indicated an improvement from the earlier reading. The German Ifo business climate index is due today and a dip from 116.7 to 116.6 is expected.

GBP

The pound lagged behind most of its peers despite data coming in line with expectations. The second version of the GDP was unchanged at 0.4% while preliminary business investment showed a slightly weaker than expected 0.2% gain versus the projected 0.3% uptick. CBI realized sales jumped from -36 to +26 but an index of consumer confidence measured by YouGov slumped to its lowest post-Brexit level. High Street lending data is due next.

CHF

The franc was able to hold its ground even though SNB head Jordan stepped up to the podium. Instead of jawboning the franc like he usually does, he did have a couple of warnings on the high current account surplus. Although he clarified that this doesn't necessarily relate to currency movements, franc bulls seemed more comfortable buying up the currency afterwards.

JPY

The yen took advantage of dollar weakness once more but at a slightly slower pace as risk appetite was present. Japan's flash manufacturing PMI also turned out stronger than expected at 53.8 versus 52.6. There are no reports due from Japan today so the yen could take its cue from market sentiment.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie and Kiwi enjoyed some support during the risk-on sessions but the Kiwi gave up some ground upon seeing downbeat trade balance data. The deficit narrowed to 871 million NZD but was still larger than the projected 750 million NZD figure. The Loonie was bogged down by weaker than expected retail sales figures, preventing it from enjoying crude oil rallies. There are no other reports due from the comdoll economies for the rest of the day.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[TradersWay]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook ( Nov 27, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a rough run during the Thanksgiving holidays as traders continued to adjust positions on account of the less upbeat outlook on inflation shared by Yellen and most of the FOMC members. Flash manufacturing and services PMIs also fell short of consensus. New home sales and speeches by members Kashkari and Dudley are on today's docket.

EUR

The euro held on to most of its wins thanks to another set of upbeat data. The German Ifo business climate index ticked higher from 116.8 to 117.5 to reflect better optimism, which could then translate to stronger performance. There are no reports due from the region today.

GBP

The pound was able to chalk up some gains towards the end of the week but traders still seem wary of Brexit risks. High Street lending ticked lower from 41.6K to 40.5K versus the estimated 40.9K figure. MPC member Haldane has a speech scheduled today.

CHF

The franc continued to rake in gains against most of its peers as traders dumped the dollar and moved to other safe-haven holdings. There were no reports out of Switzerland but the improving sentiment in the euro region appeared to benefit the currency as well. There are still no reports lined up today, so the Swiss currency could take its cue from market sentiment and euro price action.

JPY

The yen weakened towards the end of the previous week as profit-taking seemed to be in play. However, the Japanese currency is off to a strong start this week as it ticked higher across the board. There are no major reports lined up from Japan but bond yields and market sentiment could still yield big moves for yen pairs.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The comdolls were able to advance against the dollar and yen towards the end of the previous week but appear to be off to a rocky start this week. There were no reports out of their economies then and none are lined up today, so market sentiment could be in the driver's seat. Pricing in ahead of the OPEC meeting could come into play, though.

By Kate Curtis from [URL deleted] Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 28, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was off to a rocky start as North Korean jitters and some dovish remarks from FOMC member Kashkari weighed on the currency. However, it drew support from stronger than expected new home sales at 685K versus expectations at 627K, remarks from incoming Fed head Powell suggesting a continuation of the central bank's tightening pace, and Trump's tweet on tax reform. The CB consumer confidence index is up for release today, along with Powell's actual speech and a testimony by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin.

EUR

The euro was able to hold on to most of its gains as signs point to a coalition being formed in Germany. There were no reports out of the euro zone then, allowing traders to price in expectations for the data points in the next few days. Today has German import prices and the GfK consumer confidence index lined up.

GBP

The pound had a mixed run as it slid to the dollar and yen but managed to hold steady versus the comdolls. There were no major reports out of the UK economy other than BOE member Haldane's speech and today has the BOE Financial Stability Report due. Bank stress test results could incorporate Brexit risks but could still reassure market watchers that the UK financial sector might stay resilient.

CHF

The franc raked in a few gains against its rivals even though there were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday. Today has an empty docket as well, leaving the Swiss currency to take its cue from market sentiment or euro price action.

JPY

The yen caught pips against most of its rivals in recent session as traders still appeared hesitant to buy the dollar. There were no major reports out of Japan then and none are due today so market sentiment and global bond yields could push yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was the weakest of the bunch as news of the Keystone Pipeline reopening this week led to a drop in crude oil. This drove expectations of higher supply in the US, possibly making up for the previous draws. Traders also seem more cautious ahead of the OPEC meeting as Russia's participation in the deal could determine the market reaction. The Kiwi has been able to benefit from short-covering but is facing risks from the release of the RBNZ Financial Stability Report.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 29, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was able to rake in gains versus most of its counterparts on strong data and Powell's confirmation as next Fed head. The US goods trade deficit widened but the Richmond manufacturing index and CB consumer confidence index both beat expectations. Today has the preliminary GDP due and an upgrade from 3.0% to 3.3% is eyed. Traders are also keeping their hopes up for progress on Senate's tax reform bill vote.

EUR

The euro dipped against some of its peers as Germany's GfK consumer climate index failed to impress. However, the German import prices report noted a stronger than expected 0.6% gain that could be positive for overall inflation. Today has the German preliminary CPI and French preliminary GDP, along with the Spanish flash CPI.

GBP

The pound had one of its more volatile days as rumors swirled that the UK and EU already reached a deal on the Brexit bill. Some government officials denied this but bulls still appear hopeful that progress could be made before the next set of official meetings. The BOE bank stress test results have also been mostly positive but wary of Brexit risks. Today has net lending to individuals and mortgage approvals due.

CHF

The franc had a mixed run as it mostly reacted to currency-specific factors. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy then while today has the UBS consumption indicator and Credit Suisse economic expectations index on tap. Stronger than expected reports could continue to give the franc support.

JPY

The yen weakened against some of its counterparts on news of another ICBM test from North Korea that landed off the coast of Japan. Japanese retail sales also fell short of estimates as it posted a 0.2% drop instead of the estimated 0.1% uptick. There are no reports due from Japan today as traders stay on edge on North Korea tensions.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was still in a weak spot as the API reported a small build in stockpiles while the BOC seemed to ease off its tightening bias. The OPEC meetings are starting today and traders are on the lookout for clues on how the output deal extension might go and if non-OPEC countries like Russia might join in. EIA crude oil inventories data is due next and a small build is also eyed.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Nov 30, 2017)

USD

The US dollar caught a few gains against most of its counterparts as the US GDP was upgraded, Yellen sounded upbeat in her testimony, and the Senate version of the tax bill cleared a hurdle. However, there are still several risks that remain, including the full vote that the Senate might have on the tax bill this week. The core PCE price index is also due today and a weak result could remind traders of the cautious inflation outlook in the FOMC. Initial jobless claims, Chicago PMI, and speeches from FOMC members Quarles and Kaplan are lined up.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to most of its gains despite warnings from the ECB Financial Review on risks associated with a stronger euro and higher interest rates. German retail sales and unemployment rate are due today, along with French and Italian preliminary CPI. However, traders might pay closer attention to euro zone CPI flash estimates as strong gains could renew expectations for an ECB hike next year. The headline reading is projected to climb from 1.4% to 1.6% while the core figure could rise from 0.9% to 1.0%.

GBP

The pound continued to advance across the board on improving Brexit sentiment as negotiating parties seem more amenable to a compromise. Data also turned out upbeat while today has only the Nationwide HPI on tap. With that, the attention could still be on Brexit as traders weigh the odds ahead of the next official meeting on December 4.

CHF

The franc also chalked up strong gains across the board as medium-tier reports turned out stronger than expected. The UBS consumption indicator improved from 1.51 to 1.54 while the Credit Suisse economic expectations index rose from 32.0 to 40.7. Swiss GDP is due today and a higher growth figure of 0.6% is expected versus the earlier 0.3% uptick.

JPY

The yen was on weak footing as traders stayed wary of risks from North Korea. The rise in US bond yields also drew traders away from the lower-yielding yen. Japan's preliminary industrial production report turned out weaker than expected with a 0.5% uptick versus the estimated 1.9% gain. Housing starts data is due next.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was still in a weak spot despite a larger than expected draw of 3.4 million barrels in stockpiles reported by the EIA. Traders appear to be positioning for a large build later on as the Keystone Pipeline resumed operations this week. There are also jitters surrounding the OPEC meeting as Russia could push for a review of the output deal extension by June. Data from Australia came in mixed but the currency appeared to draw support from better than expected Chinese official PMI readings.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 01, 2017)

USD

The US dollar swung this way and that on tax reform updates and more developments in Washington. Economic data from the US has been mostly stronger than expected, with personal spending and income both surpassing expectations and initial jobless claims printing a lower increase in unemployment. Traders are paying close attention to tax reform progress in Senate, which is due to have a full vote on their version of the bill this week. The US ISM manufacturing PMI is also due today and a dip from 58.7 to 58.4 is eyed.

EUR

The euro managed to hold on to most of its gains despite weaker than expected data form the region. The headline flash CPI rose from 1.4% to 1.5% versus the 1.6% estimate while the core reading held steady at 0.9% instead of improving to 1.0%. German retail sales missed expectations while the unemployment change turned out strong. Only the final manufacturing PMI reports are lined up today.

GBP

The pound continued to rake in gains on improving Brexit sentiment even as there were no major reports out of the UK economy yesterday. Today has the UK manufacturing PMI due and a gain from 56.3 to 56.6 is expected, with stronger than expected results likely pushing the pound higher.

CHF

The franc regained ground against its rivals as risk aversion lingered in the financial markets. The Swiss GDP came in line with expectations of a 0.6% expansion while the earlier figure was upgraded from 0.3% to 0.4%. The KOF economic barometer also beat expectations while Swiss retail sales posted a surprise 3% slump. Swiss manufacturing PMI is due next and a rise from 62.0 to 62.6 is eyed.

JPY

The Japanese yen had a mixed round despite a couple of reports beating expectations. Household spending was flat instead of falling by 0.2% while capital spending rose by 4.2%. National core CPI and Tokyo core CPI came in line with estimates while the final manufacturing PMI was downgraded from 53.8 to 53.6.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie lost more ground even as the OPEC announced an output deal extension. Traders are wary of the June review that might still lead to the deal being called off if the market overheats by then. New Zealand's overseas trade index posted a meager 0.7% uptick versus the estimated 1.3% increase while Australia's AIG manufacturing index jumped to 57.3. The Chinese Caixin manufacturing PMI disappointed with a drop from 51.0 to 50.8 versus the estimated rise to 51.2. Canada's jobs report and monthly GDP are due next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 04, 2017)

USD

The US dollar had a volatile run on Friday as updates on tax reform and the ongoing investigation into Trump's dealings with Russia pushed the currency around. In terms of data, the ISM manufacturing PMI turned out weaker than expected as it fell from 58.7 to 58.2 versus the consensus at 58.4. US factory orders data is due today and a 0.3% dip is eyed.

EUR

The euro gapped down over the weekend as more political troubles in Germany continued. Chancellor Merkel remains hard pressed to form a coalition government. Euro zone reports came in mostly in line with expectations as there were barely any revisions to final PMI readings. The Spanish unemployment change report and region's Sentix investor confidence index are up for release today, and stronger than expected reports could revive the shared currency's strength.

GBP

The pound staged a strong rally on more evidence that the EU and UK government could reach a Brexit deal before the next EU Summit on December 14. Investors remain hopeful that this week's meeting between May and Juncker could confirm these rumors. UK manufacturing PMI also turned out stronger than expected as it advanced from 56.6 to 58.2. Construction PMI is due today.

CHF

The franc gave up a bit of ground on risk-taking at the end of the previous week. Swiss manufacturing PMI was actually stronger than expected as it climbed from 62.0 to 65.1 versus the forecast at 62.6. There are no reports due from Switzerland today so market sentiment could be in play.

JPY

The yen was also mostly weaker on risk-taking and North Korean jitters. The hermit nation has pledged to start a nuclear war with the US unless Russia agrees to be a guarantor state. Japan's consumer confidence index is due next and an improvement from 44.5 to 44.8 is eyed.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie got back on its feet upon seeing stronger than expected jobs figures from Canada. The economy added 79.5K positions versus the estimated 10.2K gain and the earlier 35.3K figure. GDP also came in better than expected at 0.2% versus 0.1%. Data from Australia has been mostly weaker than expected so far this week, with quarterly company operating profits down 0.2% versus the projected 0.3% uptick.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 05, 2017)

USD

The US dollar rallied then reversed on tax bill developments and jitters over the investigation into Trump's dealings with Russia. Trump Jr. and other business associates are scheduled to testify this week. Data was better than expected as factory orders showed a smaller than expected decline, and the core version of the report reflected stronger business spending in anticipation of tax cuts. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI is due next and a dip from 60.1 to 59.2 is expected.

EUR

The euro took a sharp tumble on reports that the SPD will still think about forming a coalition with Merkel if members give the green light next weekend. The issue of immigration is still on the table, so there are no guarantees that a deal will be struck yet. Data has been mixed as the region's Sentix investor confidence index came in weaker than expected at 31.1 versus the 32.3 consensus while Spain reported a smaller increase in joblessness of 7.3K versus 54.3K. Final services PMI readings and the region's retail sales report are lined up next.

GBP

The pound continued to edge higher on stronger Brexit deal hopes, even as May and the EU remain at odds when it comes to the Irish border issue. UK data was better than expected as the construction PMI jumped from 50.8 to 53.1 versus the 51.2 consensus. The services PMI is due next and a dip from 55.6 to 55.2 is eyed.

CHF

The franc was in a weak spot to most of its peers as risk-on vibes were present for most of the day. There were no reports out of Switzerland then and none are due today so market sentiment could keep pushing franc pairs around.

JPY

The yen was also mostly weaker but it managed to chalk up some wins to the dollar. Japanese consumer confidence rose from 44.5 to 44.9 versus the 44.8 consensus. There are no reports due from Japan today so bond yields and risk sentiment could drive yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie enjoyed a strong rally on mostly upbeat data today. The current account balance had a wider deficit of 9.1 billion AUD versus the estimated 8.8 billion AUD shortfall but still an improvement over the earlier 9.7 billion AUD deficit. Retail sales ticked higher at 0.5% versus the projected 0.3% uptick while the previous reading saw an upgrade. The RBA statement is due next and no rate changes are eyed. Meanwhile, the Loonie was able to hold its ground despite higher US oil rig counts and weaker crude oil prices.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 06, 2017)

USD

The dollar managed to snag some wins even after data was weaker than expected. The ISM non-manufacturing PMI slipped from 60.1 to 57.4 versus the projected 59.2 figure, with hiring and prices indicating declines. The ADP non-farm employment change reading is due next and could show a fall from 235K to 189K.

EUR

The euro was in a weak spot against most of its counterparts as another batch of medium-tier data showed misses. Retail sales also turned out weaker than expected with a 1.1% slide versus the estimated 0.6% fall. Only German factory orders and the region's retail PMI are due next.

GBP

The pound gave up some of its recent wins as more Brexit concerns lingered. Word has it that PM May could be pushed to take a softer Brexit stance as she failed to come up with a deal with the EU in the latest set of meetings. It didn't help that UK services PMI disappointed with a drop from 55.6 to 53.8. There are no reports due from the UK today so the attention is on the EU assessment of Brexit goals.

CHF

The franc also chalked up some gains as risk aversion peeked back in the markets. There were no reports out of the Swiss economy yesterday while today has the CPI due. A flat reading is eyed, following the earlier 0.1% uptick, and upbeat results could be bullish for the franc.

JPY

The Japanese yen was able to end in positive territory thanks to risk-off flows. There were no major reports out of Japan yesterday and none are due today, which means that bond yields and market sentiment could keep pushing yen pairs around.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Aussie had a good run after the RBA statement was less dovish than before but returned some of its wins earlier today as the GDP disappointed. The economy grew 0.6% versus the 0.7% consensus while the previous reading was upgraded from 0.8% to 0.9%. Canada reported a smaller than expected deficit and the BOC statement is lined up next.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way

 

[katetrades]

Forex Major Currencies Outlook (Dec 07, 2017)

USD

The US dollar was able to advance against most of its peers on tax reform optimism, relatively good data, and risk-off flows. The ADP non-farm employment change came in at 190K versus the projected 189K figure but was still lower than the earlier 235K gain. Unit labor costs were revised to show a 0.2% drop from the initially reported 0.5% gain. Only the initial jobless claims is due today so traders could focus on political headlines or place their positions ahead of the NFP.

EUR

The euro was in a weak spot even as data turned out strong. German factory orders rose by 0.5% instead of posting the projected 0.2% fall and the region's retail PMI improved from 51.1 to 52.4. German industrial production and French trade balance are lined up, just ahead of the revised GDP release.

GBP

The pound continued to slump against its rivals on Brexit issues as many warned of a potential collapse in May's government if the Irish border issue isn't sorted out right away. There were no reports out of the UK then and only the Halifax HPI is lined up today, so the focus could remain on Brexit developments.

CHF

The franc was stuck mostly in consolidation, except against the Loonie, even with the rise in risk aversion. Swiss CPI was weaker than expected with a 0.1% dip instead of staying flat. Swiss jobless rate and the SNB foreign currency reserves are lined up today, with a big gain in the latter indicative of central bank intervention.

JPY

The yen was able to end mostly in the green thanks to risk-off moves. There were no reports out of Japan yesterday and only the leading indicators is due today, which means that risk sentiment could be the main driver of yen price action.

Commodity Currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD)

The Loonie was edging higher ahead of the BOC decision in anticipation of a hawkish statement, but bulls were very much disappointed to find out that the central bank is taking a more cautious stance. Crude oil inventories posted a larger draw but oil prices failed to rebound. Australia's trade balance and Canada's Ivey PMI are lined up next, along with New Zealand's quarterly manufacturing sales data.

By Kate Curtis from Trader's Way