Daily Market Reviews by MAYZUS

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

30 October 2013: The Whole World Expects Optimism From FRS Decisions

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

The American trading session ended by reaching a new historical maximum. S&P 500 updates it record the third session in a row, whilst NASDAQ is on a maximum level since September 2000. Again, weak statistics have been giving support to the markets, and were pushing indices to go up. Retails in the US decreased in September by 0.1%, when growth of 0.1% had been expected. The index of consumer confidence of Conference Board fell to 71.2 from 79.7.

It is natural that the published statistics are leading investors to buy more before the FRS meeting. The majority of participants of the market don't expect any changes in the volume of the quantitative easing program. It is also worth bearing in mind the prices of houses. The S&P/Case-Shiller index in August showed a rise of 12.8% in prices for residential real estate in 20 main city formations of the USA. The August price grew by +0.9% alone.

The Asian markets are also full of optimism. MSCI Asia-Pacific in Tokyo rose by 0.5%. Industrial production in Japan grew in September. This morning the Nikkei 225 grew by 1.03%, and Shanghai Composite adds 0.76%.

As for the commodity market, Gold is not moving, and seems to be waiting for the FRS decision. Quotations decreased on Tuesday, and this morning Gold is traded on the price of 1346.27$ per troy ounce, adding 0.06%. Even reserves of SPDR Gold Trust didn't change. Oil is also decreasing, the second day in a row, especially Light, having lost 0.44% and is traded on the price of 97.77$ per barrel. Brent is up by 0.12% at a price of 109.14$ per barrel.

Today, it is necessary to pay attention to the following macroeconomic events: unemployment in Germany, indexes of expectations and business climate in the Eurozone, the indicator of employment of ADP Services, data on consumer inflation in the US, data of the Ministry of Energy of the US on stocks, and consumption of oil and oil products. The main event of course, being the results of the FED meeting, which have been awaited by participants of the market for the last two weeks.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

01 November 2013: Investors continue To Digest Results Of FED Meeting

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

The trading session finished with a small loss in the American stock market on Thursday, having decreased for the second day in a row. Dow Jones decreased by 0.47% and has been trading on the level of 15545.75 points, S&P500 fell to the level of 1756.54 points, losing 0.36%, and Nasdaq Composite lost 0.27% being at the end of the day on the level of 3919.17 points. The main influencing factor has been strong data on the Chicago index of business activity, as for some time now all statistics have been perceived by investors through a prism of prospects of the program of quantitative easing.

Yesterday, investors were waiting for the results of the FED meeting and now continue to digest the results of it, trying to find anything in the text which could outline when the QE-3 program will start to be reduced. A number of large western banks already changed their forecasts in this respect. For example, Credit Suisse considers that the volume of QE3 will be reduced not in March, but in January 2014, by $10 billion, and it is worth waiting for the full turning by September, 2014.

American news does not really seem to be bothering investors in Europe. Yesterday we could observe quite optimistic moods in the European platforms. The German DAX index finished the trading session at the maximum historical level on 9033.9 points, having shown an annual gain of 18.67%.

However, it should be stressed that the situation in the currency market and in particular, the situation with the Euro, strongly changed since the beginning of week. EUR/USD continued to suffer from correction of positions in connection with a difference of views of the national Central Banks on the further course of monetary policy. Macroeconomic statistical data which turned out to be quite weak, only increased uncertainty in relation to the Euro.

Undoubtedly, statements of Mr. Novotna also affected positions of the Euro. Earlier during the week he already managed to excite the markets with the statement that the decrease in the rate on deposits is excluded, and then it gave support to the Euro. This time he made a hint that the European Central Bank could again start to use LTRO operations in order to maintain liquidity at sufficient levels. The regulator really should have a certain plan of action on the future as the current economic indicators show that the process of recovery proceeds unstably.

As a result, the pair from the level of opening on 1.3733 came down to a minimum of 1.3583, having finished the day around 1.36. This morning EUR/USD pair continued it’s downward movement and is traded on the level of 1.35610.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

04 November 2013: The Markets Open The Month Having Made A Good Start

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

The Dow Jones index raised by 0.45% to 15615.55 points, the gain in a week being 0.3%. The Standard & Poor's 500 index raised by 0.29%, having closed at the level of 1761.64 points, and having gained in a week only 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite index raised by 0.06% to value of 3922.04 points, having lowered within a week by 0.5%.

On Friday, there was only one important macroeconomic news published across the USA, the assessment of industrial activity in country scales for the last month. The index of economic conditions in the production sphere ISM, counted by the Institute of management of deliveries of the USA in October, grew to the maximum value since April 2011, having reached the level of 56.4 points, when analytics were predicting a decrease to 55.0 points from 56.2 points, the month before. This result became a pleasant surprise, considering the situation we observed in October in connection with the threat of a default. It should be noted that this index, for the 5th month in a row, stays on a level above 50 points, which testifies the increase in the sectors activity. The positive wave of American industrial data was supported by higher than expected growth rates of industrial activity in China, in October.

The commodity market is stagnating and major commodities are showing a down going trend. The price of futures of Gold on Friday fell by 10.50 Dollars or 0.9%, to a value of 1313.20 Dollars per troy ounce. This morning, Gold is traded on a price of 1312.28$. Gold lost in price, due to essential strengthening of positions of the Dollar throughout a basket of world currencies, mainly at the expense of the EUR/USD currency pair. Factor in that the FED, in the final document of the last meeting, didn't exclude the possibility of a reduction of volumes of buying up of assets in the current year, has also been a significant influence in pushing Gold down. In total, Gold for the week lost 2.9%. Due to the decrease in the price of Gold, the world's largest gold-mining company, the Canadian Barrick Gold lost 7.1%, and the leader in the USA, and only a part of S&P 500 index, Newmont Mining, receded by 4.7%.

The price of Brent is on the level of 106.30$ per barrel this morning, Light is on the price of 95.11$. Oil fell in price to the minimum level since June the 21st, due to the strengthening of the Dollar, and continuous growth of its stocks within the last 6 weeks, according to data of the Ministry of Energy of the USA. Following the results of the 4th in a row unprofitable week, "black gold" suffered losses of 3.3%.

The upcoming week is the first week of the new month, and therefore will be saturated with the key macroeconomic releases, capable to have considerable impact on the development in the stock markets and dynamics of the currencies.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

05 November 2013: Markets Move Depending On Published Statistical Data

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Yesterday, we did not see any essential changes in foreign stock markets. The American platforms on Monday were trading with volumes which were lower than average. Dow Jones increased by 0.15%, S&P 500 grew by 0.36%, and Nasdaq Composite added 0.38%. Support to the markets was given by R. Fisher's speech, where he negatively expressed his attitude towards political disagreements between republicans and democrats that led to the termination of financing of the budgetary establishments.

In the meantime, Asian platforms bargain in different directions.The Australian ASX200 is doing better than the others, which adds about 0.8%, supported by the news that Reserve Bank of Australia kept the interest rate at the current level of 2.5%. Chinese Shanghai Composite decreases by 0.4%. In the morning data was published on the index of business activity in the services sector according to the HSBC version, which in October grew to 52.6 points. The Japanese market, after a national holiday on Monday, shows sluggish movement, increasing by 0.1% in relation to closing levels on Friday.

It can be assumed that the trading session in the European stock platforms is going to pass rather quietly, due to the fact that there is not a lot of statistical data to be published today. Data of economic moods of the countries of the Eurozone yesterday showed traditionally good results. As it had been expected, the PMI index in the production sector for the region made 51.3 points, having confirmed an initial assessment. The indicator of economic moods of Sentix in November continued growth from 6 to 9 points, reflecting growth of business activity.

As to the important statistical data, today data will be published on the PMI index of Great Britain in the services sector and the Producer Price Index for the Eurozone, which shows a decrease in rates of growth since the end of 2011. In the evening there is also data being published on numbers of ISM Services PMI in the USA. Indexes for the non-productive sphere, most likely, will confirm today the high level of optimism reached within a year.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

06 November 2013: Investors are Starting to Look on Facts and Figures

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Tuesday, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with a small decrease in the main indexes. After the two days growth of an index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500, investors didn't manage to find motivation to push indexes to go up, quite good macroeconomic statistics didn't rescue the market from prevalence of bears. Let's remind that the index of economic conditions of ISM in the non-productive sphere in October increased from 54,4 to 55,4 points, whereas decrease to 54 was expected.

Participants of the market already overcame the first euphoria after the government of the USA found a compromise and now are starting to look on facts and figures. After a long suspension of work of government agencies in October and decreasing speeds of recovery of American labor market - the investment community has no full picture about state of the economy, and investors are starting to have doubts in, whether the growth of the indexes which we have seen during the last month has been logical.

The external background for the American trading session has been quite negative, as the European markets showed bear dynamics, and Asian platforms were traded in a different directions. Additionally to this more negative has been brought to the markets by comments of the Jeffrey Leker, president of the FRS of Richmond, who has told that the economy of the USA next year will grow only by 2%, then up till the events of October – forecast of to 2,9-3,1% has been predicted.

As a result, Dow Jones Industrial Average went down on 0,13% to level of 15618,22 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0,28% to a level of 1762,97 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0,08% and reached a level of 3939,86 points.

In the commodities market, price for oil continue to fall. Yesterday price for WTI decreased to a price of 93,37$ per barrel and has been losing 1,3%. This morning, prices are recovering and Brent and WTI are adding a bit more than 0,5% bargaining on a levels of 105,90$ and 94,21$ per barrel accordingly.

We shouldn't forget that key events of the current week are going to be meeting of European Central Bank and a release of the last official data on unemployment for October from the Ministry of Labor of the USA. These events will happen on Thursday and Friday respectively, therefore today again activity in stock market will be lowered.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

07 November 2013: Meeting Of European Central Bank And Draghi’s Conference Are Key Events of the Day

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Today, some of the key places in the economic calendar are occupied by the meeting of the European Central Bank on monetary policy, and the conference of Mario Draghi after it. This time, it may happen that the head of the Central Bank will prepare the markets for the possible decrease of the rate in December.

The point is that inflationary pressure in the Eurozone at the moment is on 4-year minimum levels, and continues to fall. If the fall is going to continue, it will start threatening the region with a deflation on a Japanese manner. The European Central Bank can't simply stay idle in such situations, and if the regulator will take a decision on further mitigation, it is going to have a significant impact on the Euro. At the moment, the support level is on a price of 1.3480, and it’s breakdown can direct the pair to the area of 1.34. The more we are going to receive positive data from the USA, the more possible it is going to be that EUR/USD will move towards the level of 1.32 within the next few weeks.

American stock markets showed inconsistent dynamics yesterday. The Dow Jones managed to reach a new historical maximum having increased by 0.8% reaching the level of 15746.88 points, supported by growth of stock quotations of oil and gas monsters, Exxon Mobil (+1.3%) and Chevron (+2.7%). Also the computer giant IBM (+1,3%) had some influence. At the same time Nasdaq decreased by 0.20% and finished the trading session on a level of 3931.95 points, S&P 500 increased by 0.43% reaching the level of 1770.49 points.

The Leading Index of the USA published yesterday, showed vigorous lifting by 0.7% having exceeded market expectations, and showed that there is no reason for concern regarding the health of the American economy, at least until the end of this year. In this context, the index of volatility of the American stocks, VIX, fell yesterday to 2-month minimum, having reflected very complacent spirit of investors.

Today, investors will be very cautious before the release of important data from the USA and the decisions of the European Central Bank and Bank of England alike. As a whole, investors expect weak data on gross domestic product and the labor market, which will promote further continuation of the program of quantitative easing in the USA up until spring next year.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

11 November 2013: The Markets Stiffened On Uncertainty Where To Move Further

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Friday, on the stock market of the USA, we observed movement which was almost completely opposite to the movement witnessed by us on Thursday. The majority of liquid papers were growing, and the favourites were hi-tech companies. Dow Jones increased by 1.08% and reached the level of 15761.78 points. Nasdaq added in price 1.60%, and finished the trading session on the level of 3919.23 points, and S&P 500 added 1.34% and reached the level of 1770.61 points.

At the beginning of the trading day, the markets reacted with a downward movement because of the long awaited data published on the labor market, which showed significant growth in the last month. The number of new workplaces in the non-agricultural sector for October jumped up at once to 204 thousand, whilst the average forecast of the market assumed growth only on 126 thousand. Values in the last two months were reconsidered towards the increase in total on 60 000. Unemployment rate was recorded on a level of 7.3% against consensus forecast at the level of 7.4%. Even these statistics managed to push indices down, although during the day officials from the FED managed to calm them by giving promising speeches.

The morning trading session in Asia is not showing the same positive dynamics, the majority of local indices bargain in a minus, only the Japanese Nikkei adding more than 1% because strong data has been published on the account of the current operations of the country, which for the first time in four months showed surplus. It should be noted that there was a small decrease in the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index against, as a whole, quite good weekend data on industrial production - +10.3% against the forecast of 10%, and to retails - +13.3% against the forecast of 13.4%. It seems that investors stiffened waiting for results of the 18th congress of the Communist Party of the People's Republic of China, and didn't react to macroeconomic data.

The situation in the commodity markets is still quite weak. Brent and WTI are traded on a level of 105.32$ and 95.17$ per barrel accordingly, adding in price around 0.2%. Gold is below the level of 1300.00$ and is traded this morning on a price of 1286.22$, adding in price 0.13%. Silver is up by 0.33% on a price of 21.38$ per troy ounce.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

12 November 2013: Markets are Reacting Only on Published Statistical Data

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Monday, the stock market of the United States finished trading session with the insignificant growth of the main indexes. There were not published any macroeconomic statistics in the USA yesterday; besides, in the country Day of veterans was celebrated, and banks were closed, as well as the market of bonds. Respectively, the trading volume at yesterday's session was significantly lower than the usual.

As a result of the trading session - the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised on 0,14% to level of 15783,10 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0,07% to a level of 1771,89 points, and the index Nasdaq Composite added in price just 0,01% and reached a level of 3919,79 points.

As to the commodities market, then oil is continuing its downward trend. This morning Brent is losing 0,18% and WTI is decreasing for 0,29%, traded on a price of 105,99$ and 95,19$ per barrel accordingly. Precious metals are also losing in price, with gold traded on a level of 1280,45$ per troy ounce and decreasing for 0,05%. Silver is slightly more weak at a price of 21,18$ per troy ounce and losing 0,48%.

In the focus of the market this week are going to be speech of the future head of FED - Janet Yellen in front of Bank Committee of the Senate, and also the reporting of large American retailers. Quarterly report of Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is going to be published on 14th of November, Home Depot Inc will present results on 19th of November.

As for today, then in the second half of day will be published weekly indicator of sales of Redbook which considers sales volume of networks of large shops and hypermarkets in the USA. Moods in the American market are still quite optimistic, all the October’s data published so far can be considered quite positive and better than expectations.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

13 November 2013: Investors Continue To Trace Comments Of Official Representatives Of FED.

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Tuesday, the American market finished the trading session with a small decrease. This week is rather quiet from the point of the publication of macroeconomic statistical data, so the participants of the market are digesting data published last week, taking profit and following speeches by representatives of different regulators.

Yesterday's comments from a representative of FED of Dallas, didn't deceive our expectations. He called recent data from the labor market "quite good", and emphasized that further stimulation of the economy every day bears more and more risks. At the same time, Kocherlakota devoted his speech to the weak condition of the labor market, hinting that it is still too early to speak about turning of monetary easing program. Also, attention can be paid to the speech of Fisher, even though he isn't the voting member of FOMC for the current year, he will acquire a vote in 2014. Today is the expected speech of Sandra Pianalto's, who also doesn't possess a vote in 2013.

As a result, the trading session in the US finished with the Dow Jones Industrial Average index losing 0.21% on a level of 15750.67 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down by 0.24% to level of 1767.69 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq was closed with zero change on a level of 3919.92 points.

The European stock platforms yesterday also appeared to be under pressure from the corporate reporting, leading indexes lost around 0.3-0,6%. Asian platforms began the new day with a decrease, the news background is formed by China where they ended the 3rd plenum of the Central Committee of communist party. Investors estimated meeting results as unclear, prospects of the economy were presented without concrete steps on achievement of goals. The Chinese Hang Seng loses this morning around 0.9%.

Commodities are continuing to fall, even this morning prices for Oil and Gold are managing to win back a bit from yesterday’s losses. Brent is traded on a price of 105.99$ per barrel adding 0.43% and WTI is up by 0.39% at 93.89$ per barrel. Gold is at price of 1274.59$ per troy ounce and wins 0.26%, and Silver oppositely loses 0.06% and is traded on a price of 20.76$ per troy ounce.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

14 November 2013: Indices Of The US Updated Historical Maxima On Yellen’s Statements

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Stock indices of the US updated historical maxima on positively apprehended reports on Macy's, and expectations of the continuation of monetary easing stimulus after Janet Yellen's appointment. As a result, the trading session in the USA finished with the Dow Jones adding 0.45% and being traded on a level of 15821.63 points. S&P 500 increased by 0.81% and reached the level of 1782.00 points, and Nasdaq added in price 1.17% traded on the level of 3965.57 points.

Such a strong, positive effect on the market was brought by vice-chairman of the FED, Janet Yellen, who is now considered as the savior of the American market. She considers that the economy and the labor market show growth, which is much weaker than the potential. Therefore, until the economy will gain strength, the FED will continue the stimulating policy. Respectively, "strong restoration is a necessary condition to start folding of not conventional measures of FED, as program of repayment of assets", as stated in the prepared text for her press-conference, which will take place tomorrow.

The reaction of Asia to Yellen's words was also very positive. MSCI Asia-Pacific grew by 1.2%. The Japanese market also received an additional incentive in the form of a preliminary estimate of gross domestic product for the III quarter. National economy grew by 1.9% at consensus of economists of 1.7%, but much more slowly than in the II quarter when growth rates made 3.8%. Nikkei 225 grew by 2.39%, and Shanghai Composite by +0.45%.

Another interesting and positive development was observed in the commodity market. Where Brent is increasing by 0.07% this morning, and reached level of 106.97$ per barrel, WTI is flat at the price of 94.48$. At the same time, Oil still appears under pressure of statistics of stocks in the USA. American Petroleum Institute reported that during last week, commercial stocks of Oil increased by 0.6 million barrels, stocks of gasoline decreased by 1.67 million barrels and distillates grew by 0.6 million barrels.

Prices for precious metals finally took revenge after continuing fall for a few days. Gold is up by 1.15 % and Silver by 1.79%, traded on the price of 1283.04$ and 20.81$ accordingly. It should be noted that Gold has ideas for purchase, namely mitigation of policy of the European Central Bank, and also the statements from the FED representatives that the super soft policy is still far from an end. Therefore it is quite obvious there will be some rebound on yellow metal.

In the second half of the day, investors and speculators will be guided by the character of statistics coming from the USA. Weekly data on the number of primary demands for unemployment benefits will be considered as the most important signal.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

15 November 2013: Indices Continue To Storm New High's Supported By Yellen's Statements

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

One more trading week is coming to an end, and nothing has changed in the world economy, but the American and German stock markets continue to update historical maximum levels. At the same time, all developing countries firmly remain in the same position. Following the results of the week, we can again see that according to EPFR data, outflow from the Brazilian funds for the week made 442 million Dollars. Russia, for the same period, lost 225 million Dollars, however in China, on the contrary, there was an inflow of 308 million Dollars, and in India, an inflow of 28 million Dollars.

For the entire week, investors have been waiting for the press-conference of Janet Yellen, which took place yesterday and boosted markets up. Her debut on the Bank committee of the Senate of the USA was very optimistic, and expectations of a rather fast reduction of the program of monetary easing by FED, came to naught. Before the meeting of the FED in December, investors will hardly be afraid of anything.

Thanks to that, the American Dow Jones and S&P500 indices maintained yesterday their historical maxima, and the leader of growth in the equity market of the US was the financial sector. Following the results of the trading session, Dow Jones Industrial Average raised by 0.35% to a level of 15876.22 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.48% to a level of 1790.62 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0.18% and reached the level of 3972.74 points.

It is quite clear that the risk of correction on the American platforms is now certainly very high, and every week it only grows, but before we are going to see any strong negative news, we are not going to see an essential decrease in America.

Commodity markets didn't miss the chance to gain some positive activity either, prices for oil went slightly up, and this morning Brent is adding 0.07% traded on a level of 108.36$ per barrel. Light is up by 0.28%, and bargaining next to the level of 94.67$ per barrel. Gold and Silver are flat on the levels of 1286.42$ and 20.72$ per troy ounce accordingly.

Amongst the last statistics to be published today, and where the attention of investors will be drawn, is to the indicators of industrial production in the USA.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

18 November 2013: Dow Jones And S&P 500 Are Torn To Levels Of 16000 And 1800

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Friday last week, the main world stock indices showed moderate growth again, and increased in price. Most have been reacting to the published macroeconomic statistical data on industrial data in the USA, and Consumer Prices in Europe. Industrial production in country scales in October was reduced by 0.1% at the time, then an increase of 0.2% was expected. Some improvement was shown only by the manufacturing industry segment, of which volume of production in October increased by 0.3%, predicted at 0.2%.

However, statistical data didn't have an essential influence on the development on the stock exchanges, as the main growth driver was the speech given by the future head of FED, Janet Yellen, in front of the bank committee of the Senate of the USA. Having noted certain success in the recovery of the economy of the USA, Yellen labelled them as insufficient from the point of view of the economic capacity of the country, and stated fears concerning negative consequences at premature reduction of stimulating measures. Yellen also reported that she doesn't find excessively active growth of stock markets disturbing, and the emerging of obvious signs of "bubbles" on them will be eliminated by taking necessary actions.

Under these promises, the main stock indices of the US finished the trading session in a comfortable plus, Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices reached new record levels, and have prolonged the successful series for 6 weeks. The Dow Jones industrial average index raised by 0.54% to 15961.70 points, the Standard & Poor's 500 index raised by 0.42%, having closed the trading session at the level of 1798.18 points, and the Nasdaq Composite index raised by 0.33% to the value of 3985.97 points.

The price of futures of Gold is falling by 0.09% and is on a level of 1286.21$ per troy ounce. Silver is up by 0.12% on a level of 20.75$ per troy ounce. Gold practically didn't change in the price, despite a potential bonus in the form of essential weakening of the Dollar, as investors concentrated their interest more on slightly riskier assets. As a whole, precious metal cost in a week increased by 0.2%, having interrupted a losing series of the 2 last weeks.

The prices for Oil are decreasing, Brent is losing 0.37%, traded on a level of 108.10$ per barrel. WTI is down by 0.42% and is traded on a price of 94.09$ per barrel. Oil slightly increased in price, at the expense of the receded Dollar. Following the results of the 6th unprofitable week in a row, (such a long unsuccessful strip hasn't been observed since 1998), Oil suffered losses of 0.8%, owing to a continuous 8 week growth of its stocks in the US, and uncertainty of traders concerning the prospects of demand for energy carriers.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

19 November 2013: Investors Started To Doubt Correctness Of Growth Of Stock Indices

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate decrease in the main indices, and the index of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average exceeded for the first time to a level of 16 000 points. The Standard & Poor's 500 index, in turn, during the session, exceeded a level of 1800 points for the first time. Investors started to have concerns related to the ability of the markets to continue its rally up.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised by 0.09% to the level of 15976.02 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 decreased by 0.37% to a level of 1791.53 points, and the index of high-tech industries of Nasdaq Composite went to a minus on 0.93% and reached a level of 3949.07 points. Nasdaq lost much more than the other indices, because the IT sector has been under strong pressure. In particular, Facebook and Twitter lost more than 6% of capitalization.

The Asian markets, following the American session, bargained without essential dynamics. The index of the industrial companies of continental China in Hong Kong, again showed an increase over 1.00%, and for three trading sessions already grew by 10.00%. Meanwhile, statistics were published which showed that growth of volume of direct foreign investments in China slowed down to 5.77% in October, from 6.2% in September. In Japan, on the contrary, the market appeared under pressure because of strengthening of the Yen, which is more expensive again and is on a level over 100 Yen per Dollar. Nikkei 225 closed the trading session with a decrease of 0.25% at a level of 15126.56 points, and Chinese Shanghai Composite lost 0.18% reaching a level of 2193.13 points.

The commodity market in many respects ignored the Chinese positive because of a proceeding rise in prices for real estate in the country. Growth in October on average made 8.78% in annual expression which could become a reason for the next drastic measures in monetary policies. Gold again decreased in price, this morning winning a bit back, adding 0.13% and traded on a price of 1273.91$ per troy ounce. Reserves of SPDR Gold Trust decreased by 4.2 tons to 864.51 ton. This is the lowest value of reserves of fund since February 2009, when incentives of FRS only were expected. However, the price for the metal at that time was much lower, in the range of 900.00$ - 950.00$ for troy ounce. Brent was down by 0.38% at the price of 108.06$ per barrel, WTI is down by 0.15% at level of 93.54$ per barrel.

Today current conditions and economic expectations of ZEW of Germany, and Employment Cost Index in the USA are going to be published.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

20 November 2013: The Markets Are Captured By A Wave Of Profit Taking

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Tuesday’s trading session ended in the red zone. Investors are gradually preparing for two key events of the current week – statistical data on retail sales, and the protocol of the last meeting of the FOMC. Whats interesting, is that the results can have multidirectional impact on the direction of the Dollar, and it is not clear which one of these releases will have a bigger influence.

The last report on retails showed a decrease in the consumer demand, many aspects confirm that this time markets could be disappointed. Published reports of Redbook on activity of buyers in shopping centers, showed that sales slowed, and retailers should fight for each buyer. Researches of Bloomberg agency already prophesy that the current season of purchases could become the most low-active since 2009. So, if data on retails is going to be really weak, even the positive spirit of representatives of the FOMC regarding the last meeting won't be able to return belief in the USD.

Meanwhile, the Euro won’t be able to use the situation with the weakening Dollar for it’s benefit, if the PMI and IFO data will also confirm that growth rates in the largest economic system of Europe decreased. If PMI and IFO data show the same, the couple should give everything earned lately. As for today, the closest level to break is based on the area of 1.3550, the next purpose is located in the field of 1.3590.

Going back to the American session, following the results of the trading session the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index was closed in a 0.06% minus on the level 15967.03 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down by 0.20% to the level of 1787.87 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq receded by 0.44% to a level of 3919.92 points.

Prices of commodities in the commodity market remain weak. Brent is on 107.11$ per barrel, WTI on 94.21$ per barrel, gaining 0.17% and 0.34% accordingly. Gold is flat on 1273.53$ per troy ounce, and Silver is increasing by 0.35% traded on a level of 20.40$. Since the beginning of the year, quotations of Oil fell by 4%, Gold on 24%, Silver on 33%, and Platinum on 8%. Prices can be restored only if the world economy is going to lift up, and not the solution of the Chinese plenum on the reforming of the economy. Results of reforms will be shown only in years to come, and now, for example, Oil lowering factors are restoration of export of Oil from Libya, and a possible exit of Oil from Iran to the world markets as a result of weakening of sanctions.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

21 November 2013: The minutes of FOMC damped an ardor of the markets

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

On Thursday, the American market finished trading session with a moderate decrease. If at the beginning of the session we could observe speculative purchases supported by published data on inflation and Ben Bernanke's "soft” comments, after an exit of protocols of last FED meeting - market handed over positions and went to a minus. In the protocol of the last meeting of FED was stated that the Central Bank expects improvement of a macroeconomic picture, which in turn gives the grounds for reduction of the program of quantitative easing. The president of FED of Saint Louis, James Bullard, in his speech also noted that the question of reduction of monthly purchases is already in the agenda of the meeting in December.

The macroeconomic indicators which have been published yesterday were of the mixed character as well. On the one hand consumer inflation made 1,7% that below a target rate of inflation required by FED, and sale of houses in the secondary market decreased by 3,2% to 5,12 million, but on the other hand, retails showed growth by 0,4% at average expectations of 0,1%. Production stocks increased by 0,6% at average forecasts of 0,3%.

As a result, the indicator of "blue chips" the Dow Jones Industrial Average index decreased for 0,41% to a level of 15900,82 points, the index of the wide market S&P 500 went down for 0,36% to level of 1781,37 points, and the index of the hi-tech companies Nasdaq receded for 0,26% to a level of 3921,27 points.

Commodities also continued to fall, price of oil is decreasing this morning for 0,34% on Brent and 0,30% on WTI traded on 107,69$ and 93,57$ per barrel accordingly. Gold and silver are significantly down, with gold losing 0,93% at level of 1246,29$ and silver down for 0,85% at price of 19,89$ per troy ounce.

From the statistics which is going to be published today it is worth paying attention to the PMI indexes in production sector and sector of services of the Eurozone and Germany in particular, and production PMI in the USA. Also will be published data on primary requests for an unemployment benefit in the USA, and the bank committee of the Senate of the USA will vote for Janet Yelen's candidate as the new head of FED in the USA.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

22 November 2013: Positive Statistical Data Is Pushing Quotations Up

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Yesterday was a very saturated day, published statistical data wise. Macroeconomic statistical data from China in the morning did not bring many positive's to the market. Data on business activity in the industries calculated by HSBC bank in November decreased by 0.5 points from the level of the previous month, and made 50.4 points.

Results in Europe were much more positive. Presented preliminary data on business activity in the manufacturing sphere in the Eurozone, made 51.56 points, which completely coincided with expectations of experts. In Germany, the index reached a level of 52.5 points, when 52 points were predicted. Also, today PMI preliminary results were published for the services industry, the indicator in the Eurozone made 50.9 points at a predicted 51.9 points, and in Germany, 54.5 points, whereas 53 points were expected.

In the USA, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits was presented. For the last week, 323 thousand were recorded against an expected 335 thousand. The previous value was reconsidered from 339 thousand to 344 thousand. The price index of producers in October decreased by 0.2%, but it was not a surprise for participants of the market. The worse development was observed in the Fed Manufacturing index of Philadelphia, whereby the index in November made just 6.5 points, at an expected 15 points. Market indices of the USA in the first half of the auction grew up.

As a result, the trading session finished with the Dow Jones adding 0.69% traded on a level of 16009.99 points. S&P 500 increased by 0.81% reaching a level of 1795.85 points, and Nasdaq grew by 1.22% to the level of 3969.15 points.

In the meantime, Oil rose in price as well, to maximum levels this month, owing to favorable data on employment, and the increased demand for gasoline and diesel fuel. Price for WTI during yesterday’s trading session increased by 1.7% to level of 95.44$ per barrel, Brent jumped by 1.87% to a price of 110.08$.

In turn, Gold continues to lose in price in connection with expectations of the reduction of volumes of financial stimulation of the economy from the FED, on one of the subsequent meetings. The price of Gold fell for another 1.1% to value of 1243.60$ for troy ounce.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

25 November 2013: Iran Acquired The Right To Use Nuclear Power Which Pushed Commodities Down

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Long-awaited safe permission of the situation with Iran became one of the main events of last weekend. After almost 10 years, on November 24th, on the last round of negotiations the compromise was found in Geneva. Six international intermediaries (the Russian Federation, the USA, the People's Republic of China, Great Britain, France and Germany) recognized the right of Iran to use nuclear power in peace purposes on the condition of it being controlled from IAEA. Within the signed arrangement, there is the right of Iran to peace atom, including the right to enrichment, at the understanding that this program will be put under the strictest control of the IAEA. The U.S. President, Barack Obama, urged the congress of the USA to refrain from introduction of new sanctions against Iran due to the achievement of arrangements in Geneva. According to Mr.Obama, the agreement represents the first step in a solution which will create space and time for achievement of further arrangements according to the nuclear program of Iran.

It isn't clear yet how all stock markets will react to this news, but the Oil market precisely after such statements, will certainly have a correction. This morning, Brent is losing 2.63% traded on a level of 108.13$ and Light is down by 1.39% at a price of 93.52$ per barrel.

No less, an interesting situation continues to develop in the market of precious metals. On the basis of the development of the deflationary process in Japan, Europe and the USA, Gold and Silver, for already more than a year, continue to decrease and its over soft monetary policy of the central banks and artificially increased liquidity. Fears about fast reduction of the program of monetary easing by FED only strengthen a negative view of precious metals.

From a technical point of view, Gold, for already more than a year, is in a descending trend, and we cannot see even one sign which will show the turn of the trend. Recently, Gold has been going through the important technical level on 1250.00$ and now the most expected outcome is the level of 1200.00$ per troy ounce. These levels could be taken into consideration for the opening of long positions. It is worth noting that the cost of Gold mining now on average makes 1100.00-1200.00$, therefore we will hardly see a collapse of quotations lower than 1100.00$.

This morning, Gold is down by 0.97% at a price of 1232.10$ per troy ounce. Silver is also under strong pressure, decreasing by 1.13% and bargaining next to the level of 19.64$ per troy ounce.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

26 November 2013: Investors Are Trying To Avoid Taking Action

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Key stock indices of Europe showed positive dynamics supported by the agreement on control of the nuclear program in Iran. So, Iran refused uranium enrichment for the next six months in exchange for mitigation of the economic sanctions concerning export of Oil, cars and precious metals. Based on that, following the results of the trading session the key index of Great Britain, the FTSE 100, increased by 0.3%.The French CAC 40 became 0.55% heavier, and the German DAX went to a plus by 0.88%.

The American market has also started the first day of the trading week on a positive note, but by the end of the day, indices showed different results. The S&P index shows growth for the last seven weeks, supported by the idea of preservation of volume of the program of quantitative easing by the FED. "The day before it became known that a number of banks made the statement that if FED will start to cut the quantitative program and will make interest on deposits negative, banks will start to take money from clients for bank deposits”, - the experts make comments, noting that this information justifies a turn in Oil and Gold, and also the equity market can receive the next portion of free cash.

Following the results of the trading session, the Dow Jones index added 0.04% and reached a level of 16072.54 points, S&P decreased by 0.12%, to the level of 1802.48 points, Nasdaq appeared in a plus for 0.07% and made 3994.57 points.

Asian markets this morning are moving in a different direction too. Japanese Nikkei is going down by 0.11%, correcting after a four-day growth against the strengthening Yen in relation to the Dollar. The Chinese Shanghai Composite grew by 0.01%, the Korean KOSPI added 0.14%, the Hong Kong HANG SENG grew by 0.21%.

Prices of commodities restored losses we witnessed yesterday. Brent is traded on 110.59$ per barrel, Light is up to 94.46$ per barrel. Gold is increasing by 1.00% and is on the level of 1253.64$ per troy ounce. Silver managed to return back to the level above 20.00$ adding 1.41% and is traded on a price of 20.16$ per troy ounce.

Today there is not going to be a lot of important macroeconomic statistical data published. Important data to pay attention to is the release of September’s data on quantity of new buildings in the USA, where growth to 908 thousand houses is predicted.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

27 November 2013: Nasdaq Subdued The Level Of 4000 Points

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with insignificant growth of the main stock indices. The Standard & Poor's 500 index managed to keep over the level of 1800 points, whereas the index of blue chips Dow Jones is traded over the level of 16 000 points.

A considerable volume of statistics, which caused mixed reaction in the markets, were published yesterday. Housing prices in 20 capital regions of the USA in 12 months with the termination in September, increased to the maximum size since February 2006, which signals improvement on the housing market. Moreover, the number of permissions for construction of houses in October increased by 6.2%, which was more than expected. At the same time, data on the index of consumer confidence for November disappointed investors, the indicator, contrary to expectations, decreased from the reconsidered 72.4 points to 70.4 points, whereas retreat only to 72.9 points was expected.

Let's note that in the last half an hour of the trading session, indices reduced the obtained gain almost to zero as institutional investors tried to consider changes in structures of the MSCI indices coming into force. Despite that, the index of the hi-tech sector Nasdaq Composite managed to finish the session above the level of 4000 points for the first time since 2000.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips of Dow Jones Industrial Average finished on the same price as the previous day at the level of 16072.80 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.1% to a level of 1802.75 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to a plus on 0.58% and reached the level of 4017.75 points.

Commodities prices are stable, Brent is adding 0.06% and is traded on a level of 110.95$ per barrel. WTI is down by 0.25% at price of 93.45$. Gold and Silver are adding 0.39% and 0.32% accordingly, traded on a level of 1246.20$ and 19.91$ per troy ounce.

Due to the celebration of Thanksgiving Day tomorrow, traditional weekly demands for unemployment benefits will be published today. Surprises are not expected, after the jump due to the budgetary crisis to 370 thousand, for weeks in a row now it has tended to decrease. The last value made 323 thousand, which, historically, is a rather low level.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd

 

[MAYZUS.Neeraj]

28 November 2013: The US Market Is Going To Be Closed In Honor Of Thanksgiving Day Celebration

DAILY MARKET REVIEWS
By Kristina Leonova: Analyst in Portfolio Asset Management Department.

Yesterday, the stock market of the United States finished the trading session with a moderate growth of the main stock indices. Indices were getting support from the published macroeconomic statistical data, and the hi-tech sector looked better than the market due to the successful reporting of Hewlett-Packard. The price of shares of the producer of the computer equipment, Hewlett-Packard, jumped up by 9.1% against the publication of the quarterly report. The company revenue in three months decreased from $29.96 billion a year earlier, to $29.1 billion whilst analysts expected only $27.8 billion.

Let’s be reminded that according to the published data, the number of primary requests for unemployment benefits for last week was reduced from the reconsidered 326 thousand, to 316 thousand, whereas an increase to 330 thousand was expected. The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index in November decreased more than was expected to 63 points, average forecasts being at the level of 60, and the index of consumer confidence of university of Michigan for the current month, showed an increase from 72 points to 75.1, although an increase of only 73.5 points was expected. Disappointment occurred due to data on orders for long using goods for October. The indicator was reduced by 2%, which was slightly stronger than expectations.

So, successful confluence of encouraging macroeconomic statistics helped all three stock indices of the USA to go over some important trading levels. Even the trading volumes were lower than usual yesterday, due to the upcoming Thanksgiving Day, when the exchanges will be closed.

Following the results of the trading session, the indicator of blue chips Dow Jones Industrial Average raised by 0.15% to the level of 16097.33 points, the index of the wide market Standard & Poor's 500 increased by 0.25% to a level of 1807.23 points, and the index of high-tech industries Nasdaq Composite went to plus on 0.67% and reached the level of 4044.75 points.

In the commodity market, Brent is adding in price and has managed to go over the level of 111.00$. This morning, Brent is traded on a price of 111.42$ per barrel, and increasing by 0.09%. Light, at the same time, is falling in price, traded on the price of 92.22$ per barrel and decreasing by 0.08%. Gold and Silver are stable in the levels metals were yesterday. Gold is up by 0.09% on a level of 1238.95$ per troy ounce, Silver is up by 0.11% at price of 19.66$ per troy ounce.

As for the EUR/USD currency pair, the Euro continues to become stronger. EUR/USD had basis to continue strengthening as since the morning, the markets received news that Angela Merkel's block could create a coalition with the social democrats. It was quite an expected event, however this still encouraged demand for the pair. There was positive growth of the indicator of business climate in Germany. The index became stronger to 7.4 from the previous 7.1, which also played a supporting role. Today we shall pay attention to the labor market of Germany, and if the indicators will be positive again, the pair will be able to resume growth with the next purpose on 1.3640.

Copyright: MAYZUS Investment Company Ltd