Daily Reviews of major currencies from Globe Gain Forex Rebates

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04/04/2012 Fed’s cautiousness about further incentives triggers the dollar rally

EUR/USD

The Fed’s minutes published yesterday afternoon produced a dramatic influence on the market. They made it clear that the Fed is now less inclined to provide further incentives for the economy. Speculators immediately reacted to that, having started to buy dollars and sell risky assets and currencies. As a result, the single currency, for example, sank from 1,3340 to 1,3215 in an hour. During the Asian session sales continued, which brought the pair below 1,32. Exactly the soft Fed’s policy, which doesn’t fully fit the current circumstances, is called the impetus of the 30% rally in the stock markets since last October. Of course, it’s quite possible to understand Bernanke, who cannot introduce very quick and also pleasing to markets changes in the policy. To some extent, the market rally, which has driven the indices up to their 4-year highs, can be called the side-effect of the Fed’s endeavours. However, it’s of interest if the labour market will further retain the positive mood. The release of employment data is scheduled for the end of this week. It may exert a considerable impact on the situation in the market. And later today we’ll see data on the private sector from ADP. In the last five months the average increase in the number of the employed has exceeded 200K. Starting with March the increase is expected to be the same, of 209K. Other employment indicators also point at a higher pace of job creation than before. Shortly after this publication the ECB press conference is to be held. This time Draghi can allow himself to refrain from talking about new measures to support the troubled European countries, but he will still have to specify his stance for the future. As was forecasted by the ECB in autumn, the regional economy has slid into “slight recession”, however its further prospects are no longer that gloomy as before. Now politicians have to concentrate on the structural economic reforms, which will bring together the labour market competitiveness in different countries. It can be both the cost reduction in weak countries and wage growth in Germany and the like.

GBP/USD

Britain feels better and better, judging by the PMI reports. Earlier this week we observed a sharp contrast between the manufacturing activities of the Continent and Britain: while the former was suffering a slowdown, the latter managed to demonstrate a higher growth rate...Read full review

 

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05/04/2012 The dollar keeps strengthening – be careful

EUR/USD

The euro decline, started after the release of the Fed meeting minutes, persisted for most part of the day yesterday. EUR/USD fell down to 1.31, though a couple of days ago it was high at 1.3350. Technically the euro/dollar is close to an important support level. The continuous slackness in the preceding days spilt over into the vigorous action. However, it seems to subside now on the reduced volumes before the holidays. It’s of interest that yesterday’s euro sales occurred on the upward revision of Services PMIs in the greater part of Europe. In March the Euro-zone final services PMI made 49.2 and PMI Composite -49.1 against the primary estimate of 48.7 for both the indicators. The cautiousness about the euro was caused by a poor Spanish auction, which failed to attract the required buying interest. Still, for some European countries economic news pales in comparison with the situation in the financial markets. However, with the USA it’s different. Despite a short hitch with the ISM service-sector index, more and more commentators and analysts find the situation in the country improving. The Services PMI showed a certain slowdown in the pace of expansion, having fallen from 57.3 down to 56.0. Actually, the slowdown was expected to be more moderate, down to 56.9. Anyway, the figure for the first quarter of this year is 3 bp higher than that of 4Q of the last year. The ADP data didn’t display any downward deviation from the trend set over the recent months either. Private sector employment grew by 206K, which coincides with the average figures of last year’s October. Apart from statistics, yesterday the attention of markets was compelled by Draghi’s press-conference. There’s small wonder about the interest rate being kept at the current level. But Draghi’s comments on the possible acceleration of inflation in the coming quarters really surprise. It looks as though Germany forced the Bank to keep this parameter as its prime target.

GBP/USD

Yesterday Britain again enjoyed a batch of good news. Just like it was recently demonstrated by the manufacturing and construction sectors, the data on the service sector exceeded the previous figures and expectations... Read full review

 

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06/04/2012 Good Friday for the euro?

EUR/USD

Yesterday the single currency rewrote its local lows and went sideways on very thin volumeless trading. On Thursday EUR/USD went down to 1.3034 at the beginning of the active US session, but then it moved sideways. Now the currency is quoted at 1.3070. It’s often the case that a day before the payrolls release volatility abandons the markets, and traders place large orders at the current levels. But today the most part of Europe is getting ready for the coming Easter, so the markets are almost completely deprived of volume. Very often the trend, which has been dominating the markets over the week, reverses after the release of the US statistics. But it’s not very clear what logic should the markets follow this time in order to see the same scenario. If the factual employment data doesn’t differ much from the now expected growth at 200K, the chances of further QE this year will fade greater. By contrast, the situation in Europe has been causing some concern over the recent days. Now again spreads on bonds of the European fiscal violators are growing against their German counterparts. The European stock markets are declining faster than the American ones, and the economic indicators show a growing contrast between the USA and Euro-Zone. This cannot last for long and in a quarter or two Europe will also catch up, but at present the economic situation is not favourable for the euro. Anyway, here we cannot find any contradiction with the existing perennial tendencies. Providing there’re no cataclysms, the dollar usually tends to grow in the warm season, but in August-September it frequently looks weaker than its rivals. In case there are some drastic troubles in the economy, the situation may unfold in an absolutely different way, like it was in 2008, for instance. So, technically, today the euro may correct this week’s decline and grow slightly on the payrolls release, but the dollar also has good chances to go up in the coming days and weeks.

EUR/GBP

Following the euro, the British pound was also declining yesterday, but got support at 1.58. The bulls do not want to give up their positions, especially after trading has returned to the level of the pair’s 200-day moving average. As we mentioned yesterday, the British economic indicators dispose to buying of the sterling rather than of the euro...Read full review

 

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09/04/2012 The weekend stole volatility

EUR/USD

To discern the market reaction to Friday’s payrolls you’ll probably have to use a microscope. It’s somewhat surprising as usually the release of the figure causes much movement in the markets and can even set the trend for the further month. Apart from the strong market reaction the indicator is also famous for its unpredictability: there is always a range of diverging forecasts and a wide discrepancy markets turned out mistaken in their estimates. The released data showed that employment growth made only 120K against the forecasted “above 200K”. According to the updated statistics the employment growth peaked in January, when the number of jobs rose up to 275K, in February employment increased by 240K. Can it be really true that this year the growth rate has started to slow down earlier than last year? A year ago the peak of labour growth fell on April (+251) and then was followed by a sharp drop in May (+54). Nearly the same scenario has been expected this year. If the published data are not a one-time failure, we should give a serious consideration to the dollar perspectives: perhaps they are not that rosy. Recent weeks the growth of the American currency has been stimulated by positive economic data and dwindling chances of further QE from Fed. But now it has suddenly turned out that improvement is running not that smoothly. How will the market react to it, when it comes back from the prolonged weekend on Tuesday, we wonder? For justice’ sake we should mention the positive aspects of the report as well. Employment in manufacture keeps growing at quite a high pace. And many even call the manufacturing data preliminary for the whole economy. If true, the dollar has chances for better performance. Another positive aspect concerns the decrease of unemployment down to 8.2% against 8.3%. In addition, average hourly earnings have grown a bit (+0,2% m/m, 2,1% y/y), which is also a favourable signal for the future. So, at least in this direction the situation unfolds in a healthy way. Probably, the current figures will prove just a slight misfire similar to that we saw in weekly reports on unemployment claims in February and March, when the number of initial claims first jumped up, but then again decreased.

EUR/USD

The British pound makes no headway, hovering around 1.5850 for the fourth consecutive day. The continuing advance of the pound against the euro should be also mentioned. This cross is fluctuating around 0.8230 now, while at the end of March it was close to 0.8380...Read full review

 

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10/04/2012 Bernanke calls on banks to increase their capital buffers – markets don’t like it

EUR/USD

On Monday evening markets started to recoup the losses suffered on poor employment data from the US. And since chances of the monetary policy toughening in the US diminished the dollar began to decline. The payrolls themselves were minutely described in our yesterday’s review, so we are passing over to other news. This night in Atlanta Bernanke made a speech in which he mentioned about the necessity of bigger bank capital buffers. This statement was quite alarming for banks and has already led to heavy losses of their stocks. Yet, Bernanke was his usual self, i.e. quite gentle, as he made a reservation that it’ll probably take much time to set these higher levels. Curiously enough, this very day the Institute of International Finance has lobbied for the break in the use of the Basel III bank rules. It’s interesting that the idea to toughen the regulatory standards and to accumulate larger capital buffers should be extremely popular among the European regulators despite the fact that the regional banks are suffering most at the moment. The Fed was carrying out asset purchases for a longer time to save banks from toxic assets and was introducing lower interest rates to make the capital more available. As a result, now American companies (not only banks) are sitting on huge sacks with cash, but fear to use them, feeling uncertain about the future. It follows that despite all the efforts taken “Japanization” of the USA is running at full tilt. Since 90s this country has also been suffering chronic budget deficits and stumbling economic growth on the very slightest signs of toughening lending conditions. But for all that corporations have a huge pool of idle liquidity, which goes preferably into production of the developing regions or of market outlets. Turning back to the euro/dollar, though the US news points at a slower pace of recovery in the country, the European debt markets feel none the better, again suffering the widening of spreads of the periphery bonds against their German counterparts. Apparently, today the euro will remain close to the current level of 1.31 or will tend to decline.

GBP/USD

The sterling has run out of steam. Though against the dollar it remained at the same level as at the opening (1.5890), it continued declining against the yen and set a reversal in the pair with the euro. The bulls picked up the pair around 0.8230 and are set to turn the situation in their favour...Read full review

 

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12/04/2012 Markets don’t dare to attack the lows and correct the decline instead

EUR/USD

Exactly at the moment when commentators lost hope and stopped looking for the causes to buy assets the markets went up. As a rule, news feeds tend to account for the past trends and movements, which don’t always have further development. Thus, yesterday morning the business press abounded in commentaries concerning the drastic state of affairs in different corners of the Earth, but from the very beginning of the European session the markets didn’t feel any difficulty in finding buyers for the troubled securities. The positive impulse has played its role in the movement of the euro/dollar. The single currency again has broken up the 1.3140 level and moved to the highs of this week’s trading range. Compared with the levels at which the pair started the month (above 1.33), the current levels look rather low and are nothing more than the minimal bounce off the bottom at 1.3020. ECB’s men have come to the pair’s rescue as well. They stated that the bond purchase programme can be revived to curb the yield growth of Spanish government stocks. A bit earlier alarm was brought by the caution of markets against the periphery debtors. It adversely affected Italy. Faced with the yield growth, the latter managed to sell its debts, albeit with a skid. Hardly any of the European officials wants to see the nightmare of the previous months again. Probably, they will be able to breathe with relief for a few coming days, but hardly longer. The markets have significantly declined since last week, having brought to naught the gains of one of the most powerful quarter of growth in the stock markets. It’s curious that despite all this the single currency and other risk-sensitives should fail to generate the usual demand and to show a conspicuous growth. It looks as though the nature of the risky asset purchases had changed a bit since the beginning of the year. The priority has shifted from the developing exchanges to the developed ones. It’s is especially clearly seen in the USA. There’s more and more proof to the hypothesis that the American companies, which earlier staked on investing abroad, prefer to invest into the domestic innovations and production at the first stages of the economic cycle.

GBP/USD

No vital statistics were seen from Britain in the first half of this week, so the cable was mainly driven by the outer forces. Today the situation has somewhat changed after the release of data on the external trade. Suddenly luck has left Britain...Read full review

 

[Globe Gain]

13/04/2012 Maybe another QE? Pretty please…

EUR/USD

At first sight the current picture is not that bad. The markets have been growing for two consecutive days. Moreover, yesterday’s after-sale moderate purchases at the bottom have been followed by quite a confident leap in stock prices. Partly the demand for risky assets can be explained by the recent commentaries of Fed’s officials. Thus, if last week and the first half of this week abounded in hawks’ speeches, the last two days have been rich in the statements from more moderate representatives of the FOMC. Yesterday the markets breathed a sigh of relief when Sarah Raskin spoke about the Fed’s readiness to further support the economy and some other reassuring news. That was a good addition to the earlier statement of Janet Yellen who also pointed out that the CB was “quite willing” to make further asset purchases. Of course, the Fed’s ranks are not serried. For instance, Plosser wishes that the CB didn’t set any definite targets in regard to the monetary policy and acted depending on the situation, while Dudley mainly focuses on the fragility of the recovery process. Anyway, the markets have received a signal that the Fed is still considering the further measures to stimulate the economy. Meanwhile, the decreasing inflation pressure is getting obstacles out of this way. The producer prices figure reported yesterday remained unchanged in March against the forecasted growth of 0.3%. In its turn it caused the slowdown in the annual inflation from 3.3% to 2.8%. By this indicator we can clearly see the even decline from the second quarter of the last year, when the figures were as high as 7.1%. The first quarterly reports also produced a favourable impact on the markets. Eventually, all these factors triggered a confident market growth, which continued during the Asian session. As we said, at first sight everything looks quite good. Still we shouldn’t forget that the Fed won’t dish out money and expand their balances by means of low-quality stocks for no particular reason. Very likely, without a towrope the economy won’t be able to get out of the morass.

GBP/USD

The British trade balance data must have poured a cold shower over the local politicians, bringing them down to earth. The trade deficit significantly grew in February, bringing to naught almost all the modest gains of the preceding months...Read full review

 

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16/04/2012 The euro retests 1.30, demand for safety grows

EUR/USD

It’s hard to decide what to do with the dollar when a batch of good news is followed by a series of poor figures. The dollar was actively bought after the Fed’s policy had been revised in favour of greater strictness, but then the poor news on employment and inflation added to the tough rhetoric from the FOMC officials. That uncertainty made the euro/dollar fluctuate between 1.30 – 1.31. In the middle of the week the pair attempted to draw the reversal pattern on the speeches of the CB’s officials which boosted the market growth and consequently supported the demand for risky assets and helped the euro to find its buyers. However, already on Friday the growing fears for the euro zone and Spain in particular changed the situation. At the beginning of the last week the widening of Spanish bond spreads caught the eye of economists only, but since Friday the eurozone affairs have been bothering traders, forcing them to get rid of the bonds and sell the single currency. On Friday the cost of protection against default of Spanish government bonds hit the historic high. Today the markets have resumed their decline. The Japanese Nikkei has fallen down to 1.6%, pushing EUR/USD to 1.30. In February and March there were two attempts to drive the pair below the key support level, but both times ended up with a bounce. There is a feeling that this time the bulls will gain the upper hand. The wave of sales has risen from as low as 1.32 against 1.33 and 1.34 in the previous two months. In addition, as has already been mentioned, by summer the American economy is expected to slow down heavily and Europe is forecasted to bear the brunt of expenditure cuts. Without going too far, this Thursday Spain is likely to enjoy the market favour as the government needs to put up its 2 and 10-year bonds.

GBP/USD

The optimism about Britain vanished swiftly when the markets got seized by the fear for the stability of the Spanish banking sector. The sterling didn’t manage to go above 1.60 and the failure to test new highs triggered a wave of stop orders, which pushed the pound/dollar down to 1.5830...Read full review

 

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17/04/2012 Asian bears against American bulls

EUR/USD

The single currency with credit tested the 1.30 level yesterday. The bears didn’t manage to push down the currency in Asian and European trading hours. Meanwhile Americans were already buying the euro, having driven EUR/USD a safe distance up. The euro jumped up to 1.3150, but this morning Asians resumed their attempts to press the pair, which is now trading at 1.31. The Asians’ caution and demand for safety look quite natural. The nations with the current account surplus are in constant search of promising investment directions. And now the profitability of investments in the euro is rather doubtful. In fact, the matter isn’t even about the chances to get profit from government bonds, but about the ongoing fears that the Greek cut will happen again with another country. In addition, some commentators note that under the market pressure the ECB and IMF won’t be able to retain their privileged positions. Even the fact that India has decided to cut its interest rates for the first time since 2009 doesn’t help to inspire the markets with confidence. The further easing of the monetary policy is expected from China and required from Japan and Australia. Meanwhile, the US stock markets look quite attractive. Strategically these markets are again favoured since the speculative demand for the Asian assets has subsided. The stability of the Asian growth is now questionable. The strength of recovery in the USA is also doubtful. But with the equal uncertainty at and out of home investors prefer to make closer-to-home investments. Thus, the markets remain cautious and the euro cannot tear itself away from the 1.30 level. A lot of traders report on a bunch of orders around the 1.2970 level, breaking of which may trigger a dramatic decline.

EUR/GBP

Activity in EUR/GBP gains momentum. The pair is still formally trading flat, but the fluctuation range has widened significantly since last week. The mini rally in the euro gave the currency a boost in this pair as well and didn’t let the latter go below 0.82...Read full review

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18/04/2012 Fear has a thousand eyes

EUR/USD

On Friday and Monday the markets went bearish on the concerns around the Spanish bond auction, which eventually ran smoothly. Spain managed to sell €3.18 bln of bills, so the demand was satisfying. And though the yield grew, the markets still favoured the results of the auction, which is confirmed by the 15 bp decline of the CDS price. Yet, we look forward to Thursday, when long-term bonds will be auctioned off. The German ZEW Economic Sentiment performed a pleasant growth. Instead of going down from 22.3 to 19 as forecasted the indicator grew from 37.6 to 40.7, which is the highest level since last September. Now we are expecting strong data from Ifo at the end of the week and with optimism look to the future of the euro-zone. Probably, the situation is not as bad as it seemed a couple of weeks ago, don’t you think so? Even the American statistics on the housing market look encouraging. In March the annual rate of building permits made 747K. Unlike the housing starts it is a leading indicator. The housing starts figures didn’t prove to be very impressive, in fact. They reflected the 5.8% decline in March – 654K against the expected 705K. The Capacity Utilization Rate has grown, however the industrial production has been declining for 2 months in a row. It may well signal reductions in the capacity utilization. Is it a real cause for concern? Most likely it is not, as the year-to-year growth rate looks good, showing the 3.8% growth. Under such circumstances stock markets have some room for growth, however for now it cannot turn into the euro strengthening. The latter is still nailed to 1.31.

GBP/USD

No surprises came from Britain yesterday. The inflation accelerated from 3.4% to 3.5%, which is at variance with the Bank’s forecasts of the gradual and steady slowdown in price growth. It’s interesting that the core indicator should have grown as well: in March the annual price growth rate excluding the fluctuations of commodity and food prices made 2.5%, mainly due to the clothes and shoes prices. But today’s statistics look even more interesting...Read full review

 

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19/04/2012 EUR: a long tightrope walk above the chasm

EUR/USD

For the last 12 trading days positive and negative news on the euro have been perfectly balancing each other, making the euro/dollar fluctuate up and down the 1.31 level. Today the markets are standing still in expectation of the long-term Spanish debt auction. Remember that despite the yield growth the short-term auction results were regarded as positive and brought down the CDS price. The same outcome can be expected this time, as the ECB will hardly let the situation run out of control at such an important moment. After all, if deterioration in Spain reaches the same point as in Greece, it will be simply impossible to find enough money to bail it out. Yet, in Spain support should be primarily given to the private sector, where every one in four is officially unemployed, and the banking sector, which suffers from the consequences of the property bubble blowup. In our opinion, if through the efforts of the ECB and the European leaders the markets function smoothly and the economy resumes growth, the situation may change for the better in the long run. However, the smooth functioning of the market and a single viewpoint are the hardest things to achieve for Europeans. Yet the all-round economic recovery can hardly be expected across the whole region. Along with the labour market where unemployment keeps growing, the construction sector is also suffering a slowdown. The Construction Output tumbled by 7.1% in February and by 12.9% y/y. The worst thing is that the index has been below the current level only twice since 1990. Yet both times it was just a quick drop immediately followed by a recovery. We can only hope that such a recovery will occur this time as well, though the trend gives a real cause for concern.

GBP/USD

The sterling managed to become the hero of the day yesterday. It broke up the 1.60 level in GBP/USD, fell below the 0.82 support level in GBP/EUR and consolidated below it. The pound-bulls are looking to resume the attack today. If they manage to break above 1.6050, they may get support on the triggering stop-orders and approach another local high above the 61 point (1.61, 1.6130, 1.6160)...Read full review

 

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20/04/2012 North America doesn’t hurry to help Europe

EUR/USD

This morning the Asian markets are under a slightly descending pressure, but the pressure is moderate and therefore doesn’t tell on the currency quotes. Yesterday the euro went through a few disturbing hours, but then investors resumed buying the currency. The disappointment in the high yield, which investors demanded of the Spanish long-term bonds, caused the decline of the euro/dollar from 1.3150 to 1.3070. The sales were also boosted by the rumours that Hollande, who is known to be against the earlier EU arrangements and agreements, is taking the lead in the French presidential race. The leaders of the largest economies of the region, Merkel and Cameron, are furious. That’s really what they haven’t expected. However, already in a few hours the euro grew back to the levels from which it had fallen earlier. Now the pair is quoted at 1.3150. Actually, it may be regarded as a bullish signal as the bears didn’t manage to push the pair down. In the short term the odds may turn in favour of the bulls. However, for a real movement there should be a strong reason, which actually may come up at the G20 and IMF meeting this weekend. Earlier this week we heard that, except for the American Continent, all the other European and Asian countries are ready to allocate money to curb and eventually put an end to the debt crisis. In this respect Europe and Asia depend on the state of exterior affairs. The USA and satellite- Canada can stew in their own juice, enjoying the growth of their local economies and staying immune to the European issues. This is what they think. But it is only partially true. They don’t have immunity, just time to get ready, but Americans are heading for elections, so hardly anything else can bother this country’s politicians now.

GBP/USD

The sterling keeps strengthening its positions, consolidating above 1.60. Now trading is held above 1.6060. Should the events develop positively today, we may see testing of the 1.61 level or even of the higher one...Read full review

 

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23/04/2012 The euro is under pressure due to the disappointment in the first round of elections in France

EUR/USD

The single currency demonstrated a fairly good growth on Friday due to the stream of positive news out of the region. The German IFO figures moderately exceeded the expectations. The US stock markets also brought in some favourable news, which helped to maintain the demand for risk. Eventually EUR/USD climbed above 1.32 by the end of Friday’s trading, however this week has been opened with the sinking down to 1.3160. Such caution over the common currency is caused by Hollande’s victory in the first round of French elections. Of course, this is not the end, but markets feel nervous as the victory of Sarkozy’s opponent may lead to a complete reconsideration and change of the country’s stand on the so-hardly-reached agreements with the EU. The markets try to estimate the consequences of the possible victory of Hollande, whose standpoint is diametrically opposite to that of Sarkozy’s. Apart from the elections, there is other poor news out of France. The Business Confidence Indicator and the Flash Manufacturing PMI for April have sharply gone down. The latter has fallen from 50.1 straight to 46.4. Data from other countries are expected to come in later, but there is a feeling that they won’t be very reassuring. Probably, the current week won’t be very favourable for the euro and the bounce from 1.30 may prove to be just a short-term gathering in the stops before a trip down. It’s quite possible that bears will test the 1.30 support level soon.

GBP/USD

The British pound climbed very high. On the market optimism and fairly strong data on the local retail sales the currency managed to rewrite the local highs and go up to 1.6147 on Friday. This is the best performance vs. the dollar since the end of October...Read full review

 

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24/04/2012 Ranks of fiscal compact advocates get thinner

EUR/USD

The single currency was suffering the pressure of negative news for most part of the day yesterday. The morning sentiment dominated the markets all day long: the exchanges reduced their stakes in the risky assets on the concerns that France would change the leader, the Netherlands wouldn’t ratify the fiscal compact treaty and the situation in Australia would change for the worse. All that created a rather unfavourable picture where only safe assets were in demand. As for the fiscal compact, here the things are even in a sadder state. The problem is not only with the Netherlands; France, if ruled by a new leader, may also reject the fiscal compact or insist on the reconsideration of the terms. Moreover, Jens Weidmann, the head of the Bundesbank, also all of a sudden opposed Merkel’s stance on the issue. So, new gaps crop up here and there in the European cohesion. In addition, the data on economic activity leave much to be desired. The Euro-Zone Flash PMI Composite fell from 49.1 down to 47.4. Eventually, this indicator has been below the 50 point for 7 consecutive months. By contrast, services in Germany are gaining momentum. But there isn’t much to hope for - this is not the case when Germany will be able to save the whole region. Most likely, the activity will significantly weaken in the coming months. Today the US New Home Sales figure will be of interest. It is supposed that the indicator will manage to recoup the last month’s decline. The CB Consumer Confidence indicator is on the contrary unlikely to show favourable figures for April. As forecasted, it will come in at 69.9 against the previous figure of 70.2. During Asian trading the euro received support at 1.3120 and is now trading at 1.3170 as a day ago.

GBP/USD

The sterling proved to be stronger than expected. It managed to recoup its recent losses by the middle of the day, upon which the bulls took the situation in hand and brought the pair back above 1.61. Today the trading is held at 1.6130...Read full review

 

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25/04/2012 Markets are on the tenterhooks waiting for the Fed’s press-conference

EUR/USD

Tonight the Fed will announce the results of the two-day FOMC meeting. The CB is not expected to take any certain measures, this is why the markets will tend to look out for the signs of change in the Committee’s mood. There is much food for thought as a series of strong news on the economy has been followed by a batch of rather poor data. Although the labour market is growing, the rate of job creation has conspicuously decreased. The US consumer sentiment is also retreating from its maximum levels, achieved over the previous months. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence indicator, published yesterday, sank down to 69.2 in April. The March figure was also revised down. Thus, the highest consumer confidence was reported in February. This roughly coincides with the developments in the labour market. The data on the US estate property don’t help to clearly define the situation either. The New Home Sales shrank by 7.1% in March. Meanwhile, the previous figure was revised up (+7.5%), so eventually the released data managed to exceed the expectations. However, statistics on prices leave much to be desired. The housing prices keep falling and this is not a very good signal as more and more people turn out to owe more than they have. Under such circumstances Bernanke will hardly forget to mention about the readiness to further support the economy. Apart from the major FOMC statement, we’re also waiting for the press-conference of the Fed’s head today. This event may lead to strong market volatility. The euro has good potential for movement in either direction as it is close to the local highs at 1.32. Thus, traders either will gather in stops at the top or drive the pair to 1.30 in the direction of the lower boundary of fluctuations for the recent days.

GBP/USD

The British couldn’t hold out longer and gave up the idea of budget consolidation. In March Public Sector Net Borrowing made £15.9 bln against £15.1 bln a year ago...Read full review

 

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26/04/2012 Bernanke’s speech supports demand for risk

EUR/USD

The Fed didn’t manage to produce any impact on the market situation and FOMC assumed a neutral policy stance. Even changes in the forecasts balanced each other. The growth expectations for this year improved (from 2.6% to 2.7%), while the long-term forecasts, on the contrary, were revised down (for 2013 from 3.0% to 2.9%% and for 2014 from 3.7% to 3.4%). Yet, the number of players believing that 2014 will be the year of an extremely tough monetary policy has increased. In the first minutes after the news release the dollar got momentum for growth, but didn’t manage to consolidate the gains.
At the press-conference Bernanke claimed his readiness for further stimulation of the economy if needed. Such news calmed down the markets and allowed players to focus on corporate reporting. For now 200 out of the S&P 500 companies have given their reports and 150 of them have managed to exceed the expectations. This favourable signal helped the markets to stay positive. The increased demand for risk brought the euro/dollar above the 1.32 level. At the opening of Asian trading today the pair declined slightly, but soon the purchases resumed again. Now the euro/dollar is trading near the three-week highs at 1.3230. It’s quite possible that the pair will grow further and test the 1.33 level soon.
Backstage rumours are now focused on the need to bail out Hungary. Most likely, this country won’t be the only one in need for money this year. So, it’s going to be a hard year for the EU as it will have to help both the Euro-zone periphery and weak countries in the east and centre of Europe. In addition, retail investors have restrained their ardour to buy these countries’ government bonds after the case with Greece.

GBP/USD

The preliminary GDP estimate for Britain shows that the country has moved into recession. After a 0.3% decline in the last quarter of the previous year the economy shrank by another 0.2% in the first quarter of the current one...Read full review

 

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30/04/2012 The inflation slowdown in the USA gives the Fed room for maneuvering

EUR/USD

Though we cannot talk about the absolutely smooth run of events in the USA yet, one factor definitely speaks in its favour. This is the slowdown of inflation. Such disposition leaves space for the Fed to maneuver in regard to the further QE. Frankly speaking, inflation has never held back from taking decisive measures, yet the pressure on the part of economists has always been high. Let’s turn to the facts. According to the preliminary estimates, in the first quarter the US economy was developing with the annual rate of 2.2%. It is a bit weaker than the expected 2.6%, but not very bad especially when compared with the first quarter of 2011 when this rate made only 0.4%. For more vivid comparison let’s convert it to the method of European data calculation. We’ll get the economic growth at 0.5% in the first quarter against the forecasted rate of +0.6%. But this is just the beginning as the economy started to malfunction only at the end of the quarter, so the worst is still ahead. It’s interesting that the GDP index shouldn’t have come as high as it was expected, i.e. against the forecasted bounce up to 2.3% it grew just by 1.5%. Besides, in the fourth quarter the growth rate totaled 0.9%. With such rates the Fed’s doves can overlook the statements of critics claiming that the soft monetary policy generates inflation risks. Moreover, in contrast to Britain the USA will in no way face stagflation (stagnation of economy against the background of high inflation). Today is the last trading day of April. On the whole, for most part of April the single currency has remained in a slightly upward trend, but still hasn’t managed to recoup the decline of the first four days of the month. EUR/USD is now trading around 1.3250 and may try to test the resistance at 1.33. But as we are entering May, which is likely to bring with it low volumes and slowdown of economic growth in Europe and the decline in employment growth in the USA, it’s hard to believe in success of the euro next month.

GBP/USD

The strength of the British pound keeps surprising. Since morning the sterling has been trading at 1.6280, which is the highest level since last August. The rate looks even more surprising as it has come despite the unfavourable data on the GDP decline in the first quarter...Read full review

 

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01/05/2012 Is it the weather which stands behind the good start of the year in the States? If true, the affairs are in a bad shape.

EUR/USD

The single currency is still in the upward trend despite a certain decline to its lower boundary during slack trading on Monday. Today the most part of the day promises to be even more sluggish due to holidays in Europe, however it doesn’t deprive us of the opportunity to see the volatile end of trading today. Among yesterday’s statistics we should single out data on the consumer spending of Americans in March, which came in rather bearish despite the better-than-expected personal income growth. In March Americans spent by 0.3% more than in February while earned by 0.4% more. Thus, the conspicuously decreased savings ratio is again on the rebound. It’s not very favourable for the dollar as it may retard growth in the USA, where about 80% of GDP is accounted for by final consumption. Other statistical data are also of interest. The Chicago PMI index showed a strong decline from 62.2 down to 56.2 in April. This is the lowest level since November 2009. Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity also came in below expectations. From the March level of 10.8 this indicator dived below the zero mark, having fallen down to -3.4. However, all these figures are of rather minor importance in comparison with today’s ISM Manufacturing PMI. This important indicator will either confirm the serious decline in business activity or will refute the signals of secondary indicators. Some attribute the strong data on growth in the USA to very warm weather which gave a sufficient impetus in the first months, but only due to the dynamics of the following ones.

GBP/USD

Yesterday’s rally of the British pound could well go down in history. The thing is that Monday’s trading started with growth of the pound. Actually, that was the 11th day of consecutive growth of the currency vs. the dollar, which had never happened before...Read full review

 

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02/05/2012 ISM Manufacturing PMI rekindles hope for further recovery in the USA

EUR/USD

How good should be the news to send Dow Jones to its 4-year maximums? Practically, it shouldn’t be very bad after a chain of poor figures. Standing in contrast with a whole series of disappointing news, yesterday’s Manufacturing PMI from ISM managed to set the markets going. In April the index totaled 54.8 against 53.4 a month earlier. Among the components of the index, those, reflecting dynamics of exports and new orders, showed the strongest growth. It is really impressive. The high levels of the commodity price and manufacture sub-indexes are also worth mentioning (61.0 for both). This speaks about the spread of inflationary pressure (it can be rather low, but affect many sectors) and impressive rate of production buildup. What looked absolutely incredible a year ago, this year has become real: the Chinese manufacturing activity declined that very month when the American one grew. Though the markets reacted positively to the upward revision of HSBC Manufacturing PMI from 49.1 to 49.3, the current figures of the index still reflect the decrease in the manufacturing activity as compared to the preceding month. Moreover, a month before this the manufacturing sector suffered even a stronger decline. Then the figure made 48.3. Today, markets will see data on German employment and Final PMIs for European countries separately and together, which promise to be quite interesting. Besides, in the afternoon ADP data on the employment change in the private sector are scheduled to be released. As expected, the April employment figure will be 180K higher than a month ago, when it came in at 209K. This forecast is accounted for by the general tendency of the market to expect the slowdown in the US growth, which is runs counter to yesterday’s strong data on Manufacturing PMI.

GBP/USD

The pound- traders achieved a balance during the thin trading on Tuesday. In their opinion, the sterling looked extremely unsteady at 1.63, but nevertheless the bears couldn’t push the pair down and bring it below 1.62. At present trading is focused around 1.6230...Read full review

 

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03/05/2012 Bad news from Europe can be trumped only by bad news from the USA

EUR/USD

Not otherwise than to emphasize the advantageous position of the USA over Europe data on the European manufacturing activity proved to be poor. What is especially unpleasant is that these were final data which generally do not differ much from the preliminary estimate, but this is not the case now. The Italian PMI came in at the lowest level in the history, having lost at once 4.1 points from March to April. The April PMI figure for France was revised from 47.3 down to 46.9. The estimate for Germany was cut down to 46.2, the lowest level since July 2009. Such hail of news, coming in at a 5-minute interval, couldn’t but harm the single currency. But that was not the end. The situation was aggravated by poor employment data from German Federal Labour Agency: the unemployment rate increased at once by 19K, which proved to be the sharpest growth since July 2009. That’s right: the PMI and unemployment rates are now pointing to the fact that the current situation can be similar to that period, at least in the degree of deviation from the preceding vector of development. It’s quite possible that having shrunk in the last quarter of 2011, the German economy will show a decline this quarter as well. If true, we will be able to speak about another recession (at least technically). Here we can rely only on the preceding income growth in Germany and on the willingness of its citizens to spend their savings when employment declines. The euro would have kept declining if the ADP hadn’t released unexpectedly disappointing data on employment in the US private sector. After this publication the euro sales stopped for a while and EUR/USD stood still around 1.3121. However, there were few reasons to buy the euro for the dollar, that’s why now trading is conducted at 1.3140. This day also promises to be eventful. The ECB’s decision on the monetary policy and Draghi’s press-conference are high on the agenda. Let’s see what the latter will say in regard to “mild recession” in the Euro-Zone.

GBP/USD

No, Britain doesn’t give in. To be more exact, the PMI data keep pointing to the fairly good state of affairs in the construction sector. The April Construction PMI figure, published on Wednesday, remained high at 55.8 against 56.7...Read full review