Daily Technical Analysis by FxGrow

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 04th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Sterling Retreats as U.S Dollar Strengthen, Eyes on Local PMI

Yesterday, market was cheerful and satisfied with FOMC statement despite the fact that U.S Interest Rates were left unchanged at current 1.00 as market were already expecting it. June odds were increased up to 75%, as a result, GBP/USD had to submit to bullish U.S Dollar with -82-pips price action and 1.2864 low.

Today, GBP/USD clocked 1.2850 May-fresh-lows as U.S Index still under the positive shock with 99.32 high. Currently the pair is trading 1.2857 intraday with expectations of additional declines, but the pair should withhold the bullish trend unless GBP/USD breaks the 1.27 handle.

On the other hand, PM May has launched an extraordinary attack on Brussels, accusing European Union politicians and officials of seeking to disrupt the general election and willing Brexit to fail in a combative address delivered from Downing Street.

Speaking after returning from Buckingham Palace to inform the Queen that parliament had been dissolved for the 8 June poll, May delivered an unexpectedly antagonistic speech, urging voters to “give me your backing to fight for Britain”.

UK is set to release local Services PMI today along with U.S Unemployment claims which will give a better outlook on how the pair will perform the coming hours.

Fundamentals:

1- GBP - Services PMI today at 8:30 AM GMT.

2- USD - Unemployment Claims today at 12:30 PM GMT.

3- USD - NFP - Non-Farm Payrolls tomorrow at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.2966, R2 1.3071, R3 1.3176

Support levels: S1 1.2774, S2 1.2678, S3 1.2578

Comment: The pair remains bullish with choppy sideways trading taking into consideration current strong U.S Dollar status. Dips should fight S1 level. Closing above 1.2760 is positive. A penetration for S1 level will increase selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R1 level projects further bullish waves towards R2 level. The pair to be considered bearish if market closed below S2 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Fundamental Analysis – 04th May, 2017
By FxGrow Investment Research Desk

How Will The French Presidential Election Affect Forex Market?

Time is ticking, French Presidential Election is knocking on doors and this Sunday, French citizens will have the upper hand as they will decide the EU coming future. For once and for all, Frexit will either re-surface or lay to rest depending on the final outcome this Sunday, May 7th 2017. Bare in mind, whoever wins, there will be consequences on the financial market in general, but EURO will take center stage.

Two candidates ( Macron and Le Pen ) has qualified for the final round, and latest polls indicates that Macron is ahead by 60% and Le Pen is behind by 40% taking into consideration that Fillon who came third in the first round has requested his supporters to add their voices to Macron, and Melenchon as left-wing voters are committed to prevent Le Pen from claiming the rein. But that's election, and nothing is guaranteed, and if we go back a bit in history to U.S elections, polls gave Clinton the priority, and market saw Trump triumph as shocking. So below, we will place the possible scenario and the outcomes despite what polls are signaling and indicating although their is one major difference, the gap poll between Macron and Le Pen is way wider than the gap poll that was between Clinton and Trump.
Scenario one ( Macron Winning the French Election):

Market is already priced in on the fact Macron is winning, and during the first round, as Macron was heading the polls, EURO gaped upward, hitting five months highs, and if Macron is officially declared a president, optimism will increase further more pushing EURO to higher levels with 1.10 or 1.11 as target. Macron calls for a sharper Pro-EU tone and sees EU as a whole nation, which should push EU stocks and CAC40 even higher. On the other hand, Gold gapped downward and later on fell by $30 as political tension seemed to fade away.

Scenario two ( Le Pen winning the French Election ):

Before we discuss what will happen to the market, first lets briefly state what Le Pen stands for. Le Pen represent the total opposite of Macron and sees France as an independent nation, calling for a referendum by French citizens to vote for a departure from European Cartel following the path of UK voting for Brexit. We all remember what happened on Brexit and how the EURO and British Pound was on a roller coaster. If Le Pen was declared winner, then fear will creep into minds and gossips about Frexit will be on the French menu. Take at that, EURO will start the process of depreciating gradually with 1.600 and 1.500 as target as early signs. The more Frexit approaches and becomes a reality, markets could witness even lower levels than 1.500. European stocks will plunge as well CAC40, and the biggest winner will be gold as geopolitics play its role in pushing the yellow metal into higher levels for 2017, being a sacred haven substitute.

French presidential candidate Marine Le Pen crossed the wires last minutes today, via Reuters, noting that Italy would welcome her efforts to renegotiate the Euro, in case she wins the election.

The below fourth and fifth scenarios are less likely to happen, but part of analysis, it's our duty to include all possible outcomes.

Scenario Three: It's never about who wins:

It's never about who wins despite the fact Le Pen or Macron being victorious. The fact the France has a new president will push EURO higher. During U.S elections, market and analysts were divided with different opinions on how will the market perform and will happen to U.S Dollar taking into consideration what Clinton and Trump, each of them stand for. The fact there was a president in the oval office boosted U.S Dollar and American Stocks rallied, add to that, Dow Jones hit news records. Taking at this, we could see a possible scenario on the short run, but as time narrows down with each president agendas (long run), we will see how EURO and EU Stocks will perform depending on impact level of each president agenda.

Scenario Four: Market is already Priced in that Macron is a Winner:

This is the least possible scenario. Market has placed its bets that Macron is a winner, and has traded on this fact. The optimism is expired, EURO and EU Stocks has already peeked as if France is staying in the EU, so it will bring nothing new to traders mind. EUR and EU Stocks will stay put and even make a minor correction upward or downward. Later economic data will shape up the Forex market including EURO, EU Stcoks, and CAC40, depending on the outcome (Economic Data) as part of ebb and flow between currencies.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Inclines As U.S Dollar Declines, Eyes on U.S Data

EUR/USD extended the bullish momentum for the eleven consecutive sessions and prolonged the intensity tone facing crisp U.S Dollar. Yesterday the pair rallied +113-pips with 1.0987 high and added 3-pips to clock 1.0990 2017-fresh-highs, surpassing 5-EMA (D1) at 1.0941. U.S Data yesterday was positive which gave a lift to U.S Index up to 99.33 high, but the Index was tackled by Republicans as they voted a green light on Trump's health-care-bill which was opposed by Democrats, leaving the market divided. As a result, U.S index re-collapsed at 98.54 low, and EUR Index was seen out performing with a 2017 new record 89.07.

The pair is still energized by coming French Presidential Elections this Sunday, May 7th, and as polls supports Macron (Pro EU) 60%, and Le Pen (Anti EU) 40%, which should boost the pair further during the coming hours.

Today, U.S Data is loaded, but the main focus will be on NFP, Non-Farm Payrolls, followed by Yellen speech at night. Yesterday positive data, added to today's coming data will set the tone for Mrs. Yellen with expectations of a hawkish tone taking into consideration how U.S data performed yesterday and will today, with efforts to boost U.S Index levels higher. Market has seen Trump favoring a lower U.S Dollar, and the fact that Trump and U.S Feds are not in accord grows clearer as events occurs.

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m + Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rates today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD - Yellen (Head of U.S Fed) speech today at 5:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance Levels: R1 1.1002, R2 1.1068, R3 1.1143, R4 1.1205

Support levels: S1 1.0933, S2 1.0859, S3 1.0818, S4 1.0738

Comment: The pair remains bullish with sideways trading. U.S Data today will make a minor correction either positive or negative depending on the outcome. The market pattern gives bull signals for the start of a larger advance. Current congestion over the previous Monday's gap reinforces the upturn and provides a staging level to launch fresh rallies. A breakout over congestion targets a drive to 1.1068 as well as potentially higher. A close under 1.0818 is needed to reject the upturn.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 05th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Recovers Temporary Ahead of U.S Data Release

Gold showed weak recovery symptoms in today trading sessions with a 1235 high, after plunging to 1225.74 low yesterday, but still remains bearish. Yesterday, U.S economic data was positive which added more weight to gold's bearish forces, but the decline journey was postponed as U.S Republicans voted a yay on Trump's health-care-bill, replacing Obamacare, and Democrats were repelled by such move. As a result, U.S Dollar shed $0.79 and U.S Index plunged to 98.54 low, giving XAUSUD a chance to take a breath. Gold currently trading 1233 intraday, slightly below 200 EMA (D1) at 1237 which to be considered a critical level.


U.S Economic Data today will have a major contribution to gold levels, with NFP in focus, and Yellen (Head Of U.S Fed) will cross wire afterwards and the most preferable scenario is that FOMC members along with Yellen will guard U.S Dollar from further declines supported by yesterday's positive data, along with the outcomes of NFP, Average Hourly Earnings m/m, and Unemployment Rate. On the other hand, French Elections this Sunday and tails of uncertainties could provoke gold to peek higher as market sees the precious metal as a sacred haven substitute.

As for physical demand of gold, global gold demand in Q1 2017 was 1,034.5t. The 18% year-on-year decline suffers from the comparison with Q1 2016, which was the strongest ever first quarter. Inflows into ETFs of 109.1t, although solid, were nonetheless a fraction of last year’s near-record inflows. Slower central bank demand also contributed to the weakness. Bar and coin investment, however, was healthy at 289.8t (+9% y-o-y), while demand firmed slightly in both the jewelry and technology sectors. (WGC).

Fundamentals:

1- USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m + Non-Farm Payrolls + Unemployment Rates today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- USD - Yellen (Head of U.S Fed) speech today at 5:30 PM GMT.

3- French Presidential Elections this Sunday all day long.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1237.41, R2 1248.10, R3 1260.22, R4 1278

Support levels : S1 1225.80, S2 1218.23, S3 1208.93, S4 1194.76

Comment: Currently Gold to be considered bearish, but due to U.S Data today and French Elections approaching, we could see high volatility for XAUUSD with choppy sideways destination. A penetration for R1 level projects further bullish waves with R2 level target. Closing above R3 level will shift gold to bullish momentum. The other scenario, in case gold break below S1 level, intensive selloffs with congestion seeing S2&S3 as target.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 08th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Gaps Upward For the Second Time As Macron Heads French Elections

EUR/USD gaps upward for second time as French Presidential Elections end with Macron's declared winner, beating Le Pen also for the second as the two candidates fold the final round yesterday. Macron collected almost 65% of French voters, and the candidate with his Pro EU sharp tone, eased worries of EU neighbor nations, and Frexit shall never be spoken off, and FRANCE Shall stay in Euro-zone. As a result the pair gapped +23-pips with 6 months french-highs at 1.1021, with a reminder of hold old levels before Brexit took place.

Although expectations that EUR/USD should have surged higher giving the above fundamentals, the fact that markets saw Macron's triumph as an inevitable taking into consideration the huge gap between him and Le Pen's polls, which have slowed the intensive bullish attack towards higher levels, and when traders receive news as forecasts, usually markets act less severe to the released news. The pair failed to withhold the 1.10 level, currently trading 1.0970 intraday, but sustaining the 1.09 level should keep bulls waves on stand by motion. EURO Index almost touched the 98 level but failed with 3-pips behind at 98.97 high for today. On the other hand, U.S Dollar remains weak as the Index plunged to 98.54 low this morning.

As for economic data that should influence EUR/USD, the pair awaits low impact news with German Factory Orders m/m and Sentix report today, but giving the circumstances, a positive data today will be like pouring gas on fire as the pair just need a slight push for additional rallies. Tomorrow will be more action with German Industrial Production m/m and German Trade balance, followed by French Gov Budget Balance, and On Wednesday, Mr. Draghi, head of ECB will cross wires and it's been clear in recent appearances how Draghi Favors lower EUR/USD, so the speech will be highly anticipated with the possible content.

Fundamentals :

1 - EUR - German Factory Orders m/m today at 6:00 AM GMT.

2- EUR - Sentix Investor Confidence today at 8:30 AM GMT.

3- EUR - German Industrial Production and Trade Balance tomorrow at 6:00 AM GMT.

4- EUR- French Gov. Budget Balance tomorrow 6:45 AM GMT.

5 EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech on Wednesday at 12:00 PM GMT.

Technical Overview :

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.1027, R2 1.1068, R3 1.1125

Support levels: S1 1.0936, S2 1.0860, S3 1.0778

Comment: The market reminds bullish despite the pair minor retracement. A minor downward correction is expected but staying above S1 level calls for additional rallies. Closing above S2 still remain positive. Dips should fight S1 level, but in case of penetration, S2 will be next destination. Closing below S3 is needed for trend reversal. The other scenario, in case EUR/USD breaks above R1 level, market should expect intensive attacks towards R2, then R3 level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 08th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Aussie Recovers slightly Over Positive Chinese Trade Balance, Eyes on Local Data

AUD/USD extended the bearish momentum for the fifth consecutive session and has been confined within 63-pips price action since Thursday. Last Tuesday, RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) kept Interest Rates at current 1.50%, followed by a press conference headed by Gov. Lowe with a dovish tone, later on Thursday, Australian Trade Balance scored 3.11B with -0.55B deficit, compared to 3.66B on previous sessions. As a result the pair lost 161-pips since Tuesday, after plunging to 0.7385 low today.

Today, the Aussie clocked 0.7424 high, showing some signs of recovery as Chinese Trade Balance scored a wider than expected surplus of CNY 262.3bln vs. Ecp. CNY 197.2bln. China April exports up 14.3% on-year, imports up 18.6% in yuan terms for trade surplus of CNY262.30 billion: (Reuters).

On the other hand, U.S dollar managed to recover +$0.35 with a 98.90 high, adding more pressure on AUD/USD. The pair awaits local data tomorrow with Retails Sales and Annual Budget Release which should bring some new levels for the Aussie and in case U.S Index remains weak, the Aussie has the chance to sharpen its tone with possible profits, and vise versa.

Fundamentals:

1- AUD - Retail Sales tomorrow at 12:30 AM GMT.

2- AUD - Australian Annual Budget Release tomorrow at 9:30 AM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 0.7446, R2 0.7509, R3 0.7585

Support levels: S1 0.7370, S2 0.7330, S3 0.7278

Comment: The pair remains bearish pressured by previous negative local data but tomorrow's data will give a better outlook for the pair trading levels. A penetration for S1 aligned with congestion will increase further selloffs and wash towards S2 level. Closing above R1 projects further rallies with R2 target. Only a close above R2 is needed to stop bearish forces action and the pair can be considered on the path of shifting trend. Keep an eye on U.S Index levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 09th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Remains Under Pressure With Sideways Trading, Technical

Gold dipped yesterday to 1220 but managed to reject bear forces and climbed back to 1236 high, then retreated to 1230 level at which the precious metal found hard time breaking creating a strong support. Later on, 1230 failed and plunged to 1225 as U.S Dollar hiked to 99.03 high. Gold currently trading 1228, and if the XAUUSD stayed below 1228 (H5 Pivot), expectations for further declines towards 1225 S1, in case of penetration, 1218 will be the next destination.

The other scenario, long positions above 1228, market should expect buying demand seeing 1235 a the first station. If gold breaks 1235, traders should see 1239, 1240 as the next stage for gold bull forces. In absence of vital U.S economic news, gold should trade between support and resistance. Price range most preferable is between 1225 and 1236. Keep an eye on U.S Index levels, in case of strengthening, expectations of pressuring yellow metal aligned with congestion. Be careful from set backs at a first test on both support and resistance, only long positions below or above S&R can confirm gold's next destination.

Trend: Bearish , but sideways trading is more expected.

Five hours pivot 1228

Resistance levels: R1 1231.94, R2 1235.78, R3 1240.21

Support levels: S1 1225.04, S2 1221.95, S3 1218.66

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Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 10th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

The Rift Between OPEC And U.S Fluctuates Oil Levels, Eyes on U.S Inventories
Fundamentals:

The conflict between OPEC and U.S with opposed interest seeking high and lower oil prices becomes clearer as events accelerate, creating high volatility between ups and downs for oil. It's obvious that the two parties (OPEC and U.S), OPEC and Non-OPEC counties are highly dependable on crude oil as a source of economical income and they are sufficient as local production, whilst the U.S local oil production does not cover up its local demand, not to mention crude oil imports. Add to that, U.S Shale production is more expensive than oil produced by OPEC counties. Recent Tax plan released by Trump's administration, cutting corporate tax from 35% to 15%, was highly questioned by analysts as the plan itself, could lead to U.S trade deficit, and since U.S is the highest consumer for crude oil after China, you can understand clearly why the U.S will do its best, keeping markets glutted with oil supply, which logically results in lower oil prices taking into consideration that supply overpasses demand.

On the other hand, OPEC recent meeting and next meeting still in Vienna, focuses on one title, cutting or reducing their oil production in order to curb global glut, keeping it below global demand would result in higher oil prices. OPEC also followed a tactic where a report is released on monthly basis, measuring oil production compliance as a reminder that the higher a compliance is, markets would take the cutting-production-deal more serious, hence pushing oil prices higher.

Now we have established the above fundamentals, traders can understand why oil prices were highly fluctuating like ping pong recently, a strike from U.S, and a respond from OPEC. The sharper tone that the strike is, the more impact it has on oil bullish and bearish forces.

On Friday, oil dipped to $43.73 bp, lowest since Nov-2016, after signs in the Straits of Malacca, dozens of tankers loaded with record amounts of unsold fuel show an OPEC-led agreement to cut production in the first half of 2017 has yet to tighten the market.

Yesterday, Crude levels remained bearish with a higher low than Friday at $45.52 bp after the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a hefty draw of 5.789 million barrels in United States crude oil inventories, compared to analyst expectations that markets would see a crude oil draw of 1.8 million barrels for the week ending May 5. (Reuters).

Other factors contributed to crude bearish prices report released yesterday showing that Libya’s oil production has reached 780,000 barrels per day – the highest level since October 2014, according to new data collected from an anonymous source by Bloomberg. Oil prices have been tumbling since last week, when both Libya and Nigeria – the countries exempt from OPEC’s production reduction deal – reported climbing outputs as the nations recover from years and months of domestic strife, respectively.

Oil managed to recover from yesterday's lows after Reuters reported that Saudi Arabia would cut supplies to the region as OPEC battles against rising U.S. output that is threatening to derail its attempts to end a sustained global glut in crude. State-owned Saudi Aramco will reduce oil supplies to Asian customers by about 7 million barrels in June, a source told Reuters, as part of OPEC's agreement to reduce production and as it trims exports to meet rising domestic demand for power during the summer.

Today, crude oil showed stingy price action with 34-pips with 46.34 high, indication low volatility and it's expected to remain still, but market should expect higher movements for oil as U.S released its Crude Oil Inventories at 2:30 PM GMT.

Summary: Crude is expected to remain bearish for the short run given the date distance between API reports showing an increase supply, and OPEC and Non-OPEC next meeting on May 25th. On the short run, traders trade on the fact the U.S currently has the upper hand with messages that markets are glutted, and since doubts still revolves around OPEC next meeting and its possible outcomes taking into consideration that OPEC has insisted that the compliance should be mutual by both OPEC and Non-OPEC counties.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish

Resistance levels: R1 46.74, R1 47.82, R3 48.99 (D1)

Support levels: S1 45.69, S2 44.93, R3 44.10 (D1)

Comment: Friday's spike reversal still suggests an extreme bottom. Look for retracements over the next few days. We may yet see residual bear forces pull trade down into the spike, but suspect support will emerge at 44.93*. A close under 4493* is needed to resume washouts. Likely any congestion in the upper half of Friday's reversal will help bottom the market and lead into recovery rallies. A close over 47.47*/47.82* are bullish.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 10th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Remains Bearish With Possible Déjà vu Scenario

Gold was sold aggressively yesterday failing to re-bounce as the previous metal penetrated several support levels, but managed to hit a break at 1214.30 three-weeks-fresh-lows. Late at night, Trump issued an order where FBI director Comey to be resigned from his duties, as a result, U.S Dollar bullish momentum was tackled with -$0.12 gap and $99.42 closing price. XAUUSD took advantage with a short term 1225.66 correction high for today as U.S Index closed the gap with 99.51 high, forbidding gold to continue the correction mode. Currently gold trades 1222.44 intraday, slightly below its hourly pivot 1224.44 and market could witness the same scenario as yesterday, failure of support levels.

Trend: Bearish

Pivot (H1) 1224.44

Resistance levels: R1 1226.57 , R2 1230, R3 1235, R4 1239.57

Support levels: S1 1220.78, S2 1217.97, S3 1214.66, S4 1211.34

Comment: Gold Remains bearish despite today's recovery. With absence of U.S economic news, gold should trade technical. Long positions below hourly pivot 1224.44 suggests further declines stretched with yesterday's dips seeing S2&S3, but dips should hold at 1214. The other scenario, long positions above 1224.44 projects further bullish waves with R1&R2 as target. Keep an eye on U.S Index level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 12th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Stands on An Edgy Support Ahead of U.S Data
EUR/USD is showing dull behavior for the past three days finding support by local data but still pressured by recovering greenback. On Tuesday, the pair was lifted by French and Italian data with a high 1.0897 then plunged to 1.0853 low. Yesterday, the pair dipped to 1.0839 low after strong U.S data outcome and was standing on the edge of a support (S1 1.0840) where the pair signaled a potential for additional declines, but EUR/USD found a bullish hand as Trump's order (FBI Comey) events accelerated through media and interview. As a result the pair reversed losses with a 1.0893 high.

Today, EU data was neutral which postponed the trend confirmation for later coming data as U.S Releases Major events. EUR/USD traded 18-pips price action today with 1.0855 high, below 10-EMA by 27-pips.
Fundamentals:

1- USD - CPI m/m and Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- Retails Sales and Core Retails Sales today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish / Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.0897, R2 1.0944, R3 1.1001

Support Levels: S1 1.0840, S2 1.0811, S3 1.0780

Comment: Overall, EUR/USD remains bullish, but trading close to S1 which in case of penetration, expectations for further dips towards S2 and below it, the pair alerts for trend reversal and closing below S3 is 100% confirmation for bearish momentum. Monday's reversal still favors near term corrections or congestion. Suspect a fight to bounce off 1.0840. The pair traded lower highs and higher lows between Monday and Tuesday which makes S1 a critical level.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 12th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Shows Good Stamina Ahead of U.S Data

Gold recovered from Tuesday's 1214 low and steadied afterwards with an incline destination, maximizing profits with almost $5.50 as the precious metal clocks 1229.96 high for today's session. Yesterday, U.S Data was positive with expectation that gold will break 1214 (Tuesday low), but XAUUSD hit a strong support at 1220 with a abstention for penetration, as a result, support level was successful and gold closed at 1224.70.

Recent events shows that Trump favors lower U.S Dollar, and whenever U.S Index starts to build up, the U.S president is always there on the right time for tackling. Latest event where Trump gave Comey (FBI Deputy) one way ticket vocation had a negative impact on U.S financial market, which contributed to gold bullish forces today and yesterday.

Gold will have to submit for a final test this week as U.S releases hefty data which will re-test XAUUSD's stamina further more with expectations of heavy impact on market. In case gold followed yesterday's behavior with inability to break 1220 or Tuesday's low at 1214, indications are high that gold has finished from the decline journey and a bullish momentum is expected if XAUUSD managed to close above 1240.
Fundamentals:

1- USD - CPI m/m and Core CPI (Consumer Price Index) today at 12:30 PM GMT.

2- Retails Sales and Core Retails Sales today at 12:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1230.34, R2 1235.61, R3 1228.42, R4 1242.17

Support levels: S1 1226, S2 1221, S3 1214, S4 1210.34

Comment: Gold remains bearish unless the market closes above 1240. Expectations are high that spikes would fight R1 level but in case of penetration, gold stretches for bull flags seeing R2&R3. On the other hand, yesterday gold dips were fighting S2 which indicates a strong level allied further selloffs and wash towards S3. U.S data not to be missed and keep an eye on Trump's next moves.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 15th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Re-Claims 1.0900 Level Over Weaker U.S Dollar
Friday, EUR/USD plunged to 1.0855 low after a neutral EU data giving room for U.S Index to climb towards 99.57 high. Later on U.S released an increased Retails Sales and CPI, not up to expectations which forced analysts to re-consider June Fed Hike odds with a probability placed at 74%, decreased by almost 10%. As a result, U.S Index took a dip and bottomed at 99.02, giving a chance for EUR/USD to reverse losses with +79-pips price action and 1.0934 high.

Monday trading session, the pair added only 1-pip since Friday's high (1.0935) with 13-pips movement, but currently U.S Index is showing weakness which should give the opportunity for EUR/USD and break another high record for today taking into consideration that U.S Administration is sending wallop signals with recent event. The pair is currently trading 1.0930 intraday, still above its 7-EMA (D1) at 1.0908.

Economic Calendar has zero value for EU and U.S Data, which leave EUR/USD action for technical as fundamentals are absent today.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish Sideways

Pivot : 1.0910

Resistance levels: R1 1.0937, R2 1.0952, R3 1.0966, R4 1.0985 (H1)

Support levels: S1 1.0919, S2 1.0909, S3 1.0884, S4 1.0856 (H1)

Comment: The market still favors additional rallies for EUR/USD especially the mentioned above fundamentals on U.S Dollar. long positions above hourly pivot (1.0910) stretches bullish waves seeing R2&R3 as target. A penetration for S1 level will increase selloffs and wash towards S2 as first station, and S3 as second destination. Keep an eye on U.S Index levels.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 15th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Pushes Higher As June Fed Odds Drops Lower
Gold extended bullish momentum and added +$1.04 since Friday's high with 1232.81 for Monday's trading session. U.S Retail Sales and CPI, although was positive compared to previous sessions but not up to forecasts, lowered June Fed hike odds by 10% after being estimated at 84% which pushed XAUUSD higher.

The ascending events of North Korean launching a missile-test has contributed to gold bullish forces as the yellow metal tends to hike when political tension tightens and Trump's continuous decisions also pressured U.S Index for lower levels.

The United Nations Security Council is due to meet on Tuesday to discuss the missile launch and gold levels will await the results with possibility of additional rallies depending how the events accelerate.

U.S economic data shows absence today which leave gold to trade technically.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Pivot: 1226.50

Resistance levels: R1 1233.20, R2 1236.89, R3 1241.17

Support levels: S1 1223.38, S2 1220.49, S3 1216

Comment: Gold is currently bullish on H1 supported by rising trend but remains bearish as general trend. Only a close above R3 level signals a trend reversal.

Long positions above pivot 1226.50 with targets at R1&R2. Long positions below pivot 1226.50, look further for S1&S2 as target.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 15th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Aussie Marches Steadily Ahead of RBA Policy Meeting
Aussie traded Monday's session with a sharp tone facing wallowing U.S Dollar. AUD/USD over passed 10-EMA at 0.7400 as the pair peeked today to 0.7445 high with 61-pips price action. Although Chinese Data was negative earlier today which should have a negative impact on the Aussie, but collapsing U.S Dollar gave a higher push for AUD/USD, supported by a rising trend line H1 frame.

AUD/USD is currently trading 0.7419, still above above its pivot point at 0.7375 which should keep Aussie bullish forces in action and the pair could stretch additional gains technically.

As for fundamentals, Aussie awaits RBA Policy Meeting tomorrow early with expectations that the statment will be concluded with a neutral bias given last week negative Australian Data which could impact AUD/USD negatively, but still market has to watch the statement closely with expectations wide open.

Fundamentals:

AUD - RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes tomorrow at 1:30 AM GMT.

USD- Building Permits tomorrow at 1:30 PM GMT.

Technical Overview:

Pivot: 0.7375

Trend: Bearish Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 0.7458, R2 0.7489, R3 0.7522, R4 0.7553 (H1)

Support levels: S1 0.7396, S2 0.7378, S3 0.7341, S4 0.7291 (H1)

Comment: Aussie remains as general trend, but AUD/USD built a promising bullish trend line with expectations for further gains taking into consideration week U.S Dollar. AUD/USD broke 0.7425 from which the pair witnessed intensive declines, and staying above it supports current bullish momentum. Closing above 0.7425 keeps bullish forces in action but be careful from setbacks due to RBA meeting content. Closing above R3 level is needed for daily trend reversal. Keep an eye on U.S Index level with correlation to U.S Data tomorrow.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 16th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team


Sterling: No-Game Changer for May's Speech, Eyes on local Data
GBP/USD remained neutral bias trading yesterday as PM May spoke to UK citizens, not adding much for Brexit issue but instead, a speech was given, with a mobilizing content with efforts to add more votes to her already-high polls for June's elections. Market is already expired on the fact that May is a winner and the the pair has fulfilled its purpose, as a result, Sterling remained within last week trading range, but in absence of macro events (Yesterday) responsible for GBP/USD bullish momentum, the weakness in U.S Dollar was the main pusher for the pair.

Currently, the pair is trading 1.2915 with 24-price action for Tuesday's trading sessions and 12-pips above it's 20-EMA moving average one hour time frame. The pair has a support by an increasing trend line (H1), and U.S Dollar opened Tuesday's sessions with bearish momentum as the Index dropped by 3-pips behind yesterday's low at 98.65 at the moment which should give enough room for GBP/USD to surge further more. Latest claims by U.S media suggest that Trump has leaked classified data with Russian Officials through last week meeting.

Sterling awaits major data today that hold key figures for April-2017, which in case positive, traders should expect fueling bullish rallies for GBP/USD as market tend to price the next BOE Interest Rates meeting.

Fundamentals:

1- GBP - CPI (Consumer Price Index) y/y today at 8:30 AM GMT.

2- GBP - PPI (Producer Price Index) y/y todat at 8:30 AM GMT.

3- GBP - Core CPI today at 8:30 AM GMT.

4- GBP - RPI (Retail Price Index) today at 8:30 GMT

5- USD- Building permits today at 12:30 AM GMT.

Note: Sterling data has a heavier impact, more than USD and taking into consideration that currently bad politics surrounds the White House. Traders should focus on UK data more.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish / Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.2953, R2 1.3062, R3 1.3172

Support Levels: S1 1.2829, S2 1.2752, S3 1.2678

Comment: GBP/USD currently bullish but due to high impact data, expectations of high volatility after release. A break above R1 level supported by positive data and June coming elections as PM May heads the polls, should fuel Sterling with strong bullish waves seeing R2 level as the first destination, a weaker U.S Dollar performance could contribute to the pair additional rallies seeing R3 as next target. On the other hand, a negative data would decrease odds of BOE next rate meeting which could result in declines for GBP/USD, but dips should fight S1 level, in case of penetration, additional declines are expected with selloffs and wash towards S2&S3 level. Keep in mind that the pair is still supported by positive expectations for June elections which indicates that GBP/USD can overcome losses. closing below S3 alerts for bearish momentum. Closing above R1 is positive.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 16th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Inclines As U.S dollar Declines, Eyes on EU GDP
EUR/USD currently 1.1014, only 3-pips behind to overpass 8th of May's highs since Macron was elected with a continuous re-bounds and rejection for 20-EMA at 1.088. The pair is supported by a strong (H1) trend line and non-top higher highs indicating that the pair is marching for additional gains. There are no macro economic events supporting the rising trend which leaves EURO bullish momentum seeing weakness in U.S Dollar as the Index dipped to 98.45 low with possibilities to clock a new low for 2017.

Apparently, U.S media's accusations that Trump leaked classified data with Russian Official during last week's meeting keeps adding negative pressure on greenback along with U.S negative Empire State Manufacturing Index yesterday at -0.1 compared to 5.2 previously. Question marks surrounds U.S economy performance with mixing data released on weekly basis in addition to political rift between Republicans and Democrats keeps pushing U.S Dollar lower.

EURO awaits major data today but EU flash GDP will take center stage which will set the tone for ECB Interest Rates next meeting and in case positive, Draghi will be cornered having few options whether to increase rates to accommodate inflation figures and QE will be a greasy item on the ECB press conference. Analysts has always pointed out the Draghi favors lower EURO levels with efforts to attract investments, enhancing industrial performance which should increase exports, thus a healthier economy.

Fundamentals:

1- EUR - EU Flash GDP today at 9:00 AM GMT.

2- EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment today at 9:00 AM GMT.

3- EUR - Trade Balance today at 9:00 AM GMT

4- USD - Building permits today at 12:20 PM GMT.

Technical overview:

Trend: Bullish / Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 1.1041, R2 1.1081, R3 1.1138

Support levels: S1 1.0953, S2 1.0919, S3 1.0881

Comment: Current weaker U.S Dollar is giving room for EUR/USD to rally further more. EU Data will bring new inputs on how the EURO will perform for the next hours. Current weak U.S Dollar gives the chance for Building Permits today to have a higher impact as a spark. Expect setbacks from R1 level which in case penetrated, look for further bullish waves seeing R2 as a target. Dips should fight S2 and S3 levels. closing below S3 alerts for trend reversal.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 17th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Gold Initiated Daily Bullish Trend

As Gold penetrated 1239 100-EMA-D1, the yellow metal has officially launched the daily bullish momentum with expectations for additional gains in the coming hours and the coming days. Gold inaugurated Wednesday's trading sessions with $8.53 profits and 1245 high, and as U.S Dollar extended the bearish momentum with severe losses at 97.78 low, Gold should find comfort as Trump continues tanking U.S Index.
Fundamentals:

With absence of U.S Data today, and current situation of pale U.S Dollar, gold should behave technically today, but U.S internal politic events should always be taken into consideration as a stand-by spot news that could affect gold.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bullish

Resistance levels: R1 1245.15, R2 1247.81, R3 1251.13 (H1)

Support levels: S1 1237.72, S2 1233.40, S3 1230.75 (H1)

Comment: Gold over passed 100-EMA but only a close above it keeps and sustains the daily bullish trend. A penetration with long positions for R1 level stretches bullish flags with a high pace seeing R2&R3 levels as target. The less preferred scenario, in case gold closes below 1239, then we can see a repetition of yesterday's trading scenario but dips seeing S2 as a destination, dips should fight fight S1 level. Gold is strong supported by a strong rising oblique trend line that prioritize bullish waves with higher highs.

MACD indicates a bullish trend.
RSI indicates a Bullish Trend.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 17th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

USD/JPY Plunges As U.S Index Clocks 2017-Fresh-lows
USD/JPY inaugurated Asian Trading Sessions with 78-pips price action and plunged to 112.34 low. As U.S Dollar extends current bearish momentum with 2017 fresh low at 97.78 low over U.S negative politics, Japanese Yen took advantage of current pale greenback as pulled USD/JPY lower and if U.S issues continue on such pace, expectations that the pair will dip lower, first as a reaction to U.S Dollar losses, second as the Yen tends to be a haven substitute when bad politics surrounds the rival greenback. Currently USD/JPY is trading 112.30 below 100-EMA-D1 at 112.56.

Japanese Revised Industrial Production showed a minor recovery earlier with -1.9% compared to -2.1% on previous session which added some "positive" push for USD/JPY to pull lower.

Fundamentals:

There are no data to be released by Japanese and U.S today, only politics in the U.S will play the bigger role. But tomorrow U.S Unemployment Claims at 12:30 PM GMT will affect U.S Dollar performance.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Bearish / Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 112.47, R2 112.73, R3 113.06

Support levels: S1 112.17, S2 111.78, S3 111.41

Comment: USD/JPY dropped below 100-EMA daily which suggest that market has turned bearish. A penetration cor S1 level will increase further selloffs seeing S2 as target. Closing above R1 brings back retracements seeing R2&R3 as target. Keep an eye on U.S Index levels + U.S Politics + U.S Data tomorrow is vital.

MACD indicates bearish momentum.

RSI indicates bearish momentum.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 17th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

Crude Oil Recoups Over OPEC's Positive Signs, Awaiting U.S Inventories
Fundamentals:

Crude Oil managed to reimburse $4.12 since last Monday where crude plunged to $45.52 bp, and today, oil clocked $49 high bp with failure to close above 200-EMA (D1) for three consecutive daily sessions, leaving daily trend to sideways with more tendency to bullish taking into consideration that oil has a support by a rising (H4) trend line.

Oil prices were highly fluctuated during May 2017 between U.S and OPEC with apposed interests keeping lower price (U.S) and higher price (OPEC).

U.S managed to plunge oil price over several consecutive API reports indicating a significant increase in U.S crude inventories, and this week some positive and promising signs were signaled by OPEC and particularly by Non-OPEC counties, as sharp response to the U.S.

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi said in a news conference broadcast on state TV late-Tuesday, Iraq is committed to reducing oil production to decrease a glut in the global market, and will support extending oil output cuts in line with any OPEC decision, Reuters reports. Russian compliance rate was estimated by 77%. Meanwhile, the OPEC’s compliance rate is 96%.

Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed earlier this week to prolong the output cut deal till March 2018 and along with, A proposal to extend an OPEC and non-OPEC supply cut for nine months is a positive idea, sources familiar with Iranian thinking said, suggesting OPEC's third-largest producer is likely to go along with such a plan if there is a consensus. Kuwait, a Gulf producer usually aligned with the Saudi OPEC view, said on Tuesday it supported the proposal. The Iranian position is less predictable, however, as it was the only OPEC member allowed to increase its output under the supply cut deal and holds presidential elections on Friday. (Reuters)

Today, U.S is due to release weekly crude inventories at 2:30 PM GMT which will settle oil levels technically, but fundamentally, OPEC efforts seems to be more fruitful with more bullish tendency as an impact. Currently U.S-Oil is trading 48.85 intraday.

Technical Overview:

Trend: Sideways

Resistance levels: R1 49.58, R2 50.43, R3 51.61

Support levels: S1 48.00, S2 47.00, S3 45.67

Comment: Closing above 49.00 confirms the bullish momentum. A penetration for R1 stretches additional bullish waves seeing R2&R3 destination. Closing above 49.00 is positive. Closing below S1 hold bearish setbacks and retracements as a reminder of 9th may lows. OPEC cut-deal should be a stand by motion as a spot news with major impact. Also, U.S Inventories will give a better perspective on how crude oil trend will behave.

MACD indicates bearish momentum but a penetration for R1 level will shift bullish.

RSI indicates Bullish momentum.

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.

 

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FxGrow Daily Technical Analysis – 18th May, 2017
By FxGrow Research & Analysis Team

EUR/USD Bullish Fever To Be Re-Tested Ahead of U.S Data

EUR/USD was on superb performance this week as the pair managed to rally +251-pips with new record for 2017 at 1.1172 high today. EU economic data was neutral bias yesterday as both CPI and Core CPI recorded zero change with both at 1.2% and 1.9% which leaves markets intrigued by the sudden intensive rising for pair. Currently EUR/USD trading 1.1135 as U.S Index shows some recovering symptoms but still remains week.

As U.S political tension continues to re-surface and tightening pace pulling greenback lower as U.S Index plunged today at 97.26 low, the pair found comfort with continuous depressing U.S Dollar levels. EUR/USD bullish momentum has to submit for final two ......

Note: This analysis is intended to provide general information and does not constitute the provision of INVESTMENT ADVICE. Investors should, before acting on this information, consider the appropriateness of this information having regard to their personal objectives, financial situation or needs. We recommend investors obtain investment advice specific to their situation before making any financial investment decision.