Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

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DXY Elliott Wave View 9.15.2017

DXY Dollar Index Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the Index ended Primary wave ((3)) at 91.01. Primary wave ((4)) bounce is proposed complete at 92.66 as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Wave (W) of ((4)) ended at 92.01, wave (X) of ((4)) ended at 91.71, and wave (Y) of ((4)) is proposed complete at 92.66. Down from there, Intermediate wave (1) ended at 91.97. Intermediate wave (2) bounce is in progress in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 9/14 peak. While bounces stay below there, expect Index to extend lower. We don’t like buying the Dollar Index.

DXY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

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CADJPY Elliott Wave Sequence still bullish

CADJPY Elliott Wave Sequence is bullish and incomplete to the upside due to which we have been telling clients not to sell the pair and use the dips as an opportunity to get long for higher prices. Our Live Trading Room was able to catch a long in CADJPY for a profit of +197 pips recently and in this blog, we will take a look at CADJPY daily chart to show that the rally is not over yet and any pull backs should still be viewed as a buying opportunity in the sequence of 3, 7 or 11 swings.

CADJPY Elliott Wave Sequence from 11.9.2016


Daily chart of CADJPY shows the pair rallied in 3 waves from 11.9.2016 low to 12.15.2016 high. Then, the pair pulled back to 50 – 61.8 Fibonacci retracement area of the rally from 11.9.2016 low and made a new high above 12.15.2016 peak. As soon as pair broke above 12.15.2016 peak, it created a bullish Elliott wave sequence with a target of 94.57 – 97.91 area. We know that market doesn’t move in a straight line and always does pull backs. Since the pair broke above 12.15.2016 peak, we have been telling clients to use pull backs as a buying opportunity in 3, 7 or 11 swings. As far as dips hold above 8.11.2017 low i.e blue (X) low, pair should remain supported and see more upside towards 94.57 – 97.91 area.

CADJPY 8 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis
Pair is showing 5 swings up from 4.19.2017 low which makes Elliott wave sequence incomplete and bullish against 8.11.2017 low in this time frame. Pair has reached 0.618 – 0.764 Fibonacci extension area of (W)-(X). This is the area which will typically end 5th swing in a 7 swing sequence. Therefore, we don’t like chasing the longs here as a pull back can be seen soon in wave X. We don’t like selling the pair and expect wave X pull back to find buyers in 3, 7 or 11 swings as far as pivot at 8.11.2017 i.e. blue (X) at 85.44 low remains intact.

 

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AECOM Resuming the Rally Toward $50

AECOM (NYSE:ACM) provides planning, consulting, architectural and engineering design and program and construction management services for a range of projects including highways, airports, bridges, mass transit systems, to government and commercial clients. The company had US$17.4 billion of revenue during fiscal year 2016, it’s been ranked number one in Engineering News Record‘s “Top 500 Design Firms” for 8th consecutive year and named one of Fortune magazine’s “World’s Most Admired Companies” for the third consecutive year.

From 2008 low, AECOM stock is showing 5 swings incomplete bullish sequence which is different from the regular impulsive 5 waves move as we use this sequence as part of our new way of applying Elliott Wave Theory to the market. We believe that many instrument has the ability to trend using corrective Elliott wave structure rather then trending in 5 waves move, so this move is considered as part of a double three structure which has 7 swings.

AECOM managed last year to make new all time high, so using 2014 peak & 2016 low as a connector, the stock is looking to extend higher toward equal legs area 46.53 – 52.14 before ending the cycle from 2008 low.

AECOM Weekly Chart


AECOM ended 3 waves pullback from 12/12/2016 peak after it reached the 50-61.8 fib retracement area 31.75 – 29.63, so currently as long as it remains above the recent August low at 30.15 and most importantly as long as 22.84 pivot keeps holding then AECOM will extend higher to make new all time highs and reach the target around the $50 area.



Recap
AECOM has a bullish structure and technically it has resumed the move higher unless the move truncates without reaching the target and decide to make the double correction from 2016 peak. It’s not recommended to sell it and it’s better to look for buying opportunity during short term pullbacks using corrective structures in 3 , 7 or 11 swings.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

NZDUSD Elliott Wave View: More Upside

NZDUSD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the Index shows a 5 swing sequence from 8/31 low favoring further upside. Rally from 8/31 low (0.7128) is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 0.7128, Minute wave ((w)) ended at 0.7338 and Minute wave ((x)) ended at 91.71. Wave ((y)) is currently in progress and the subdivision is also unfolding as a double three Elliott wave structure. Minutte wave (w) of ((y)) ended at 0.7344 and Minutte wave (x) of ((y)) ended at 0.7246. Near term, while pullbacks stay above 0.718, expect pair to extend higher. We don’t like selling the pair.

NZDUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

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TSG Bullish in the Weekly – Keep Buying the Dip

The Star Group Inc. NASDAQ:TSG is Bullish in the Weekly, the reason we recommend keep buying the dips for extension higher.

Starting with the company’s profile. The Stars Group Inc. provides technology-based products and services to the global gaming and interactive entertainment industries. The company owns & operates gaming and related interactive entertainment businesses under the PokerStars, PokerStars Casino, BetStars, Full Tilt, StarsDraft, the PokerStars Championship, and PokerStars Festival live poker tour brands. Known as Amaya Inc, the Inc. founded in 2004, changed names in August 2017 and headquartered in Montréal Canada.

TSG Bullish in the Weekly
Starting with the Weekly chart. The stock will create a bullish incomplete sequence from the ((b)) lows at 9.65 when break above the recent peak at 20.30’s. Then we will be looking for the next move towards the 22’s – 24’s zone; the 61.8% – 76.4% extension of the first swing in W.

Dips from that area should be bought in 3, 7 or 11 swings. The 9.65 lows is the invalidation area and target the next equal legs – 1.236% extension to the 26.55 – 29.10 area to complete wave (I).




TSG Bullish in the Daily
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TSG Bullish in the DailyIn the Daily time frame the stock looks very strong as well. According to Bloomberg, The Stars Group Inc. Announces Additional $75 Million of Debt Prepayment Sep 15, 17

The Stars Group Inc. announced that it will prepay without penalty an additional $75 million under its second lien term loan using cash on the balance sheet and cash flow from operations. -Following this prepayment, The Stars Group will have repaid $115 million of its second lien debt thus far in 2017, resulting in a total reduction in annual interest expense of approximately $9.5 million, and reducing the principal balance of the second lien term loan to $95 million.

At this stage we would like to see an extension above the w red highs at 20.30’s. Above the 20.30’s, short cycles validation for the extension up in the 7th swing from the ((b)) lows. Short Term dips in the 4 Hour and 1 Hour time frames should be bought after 3 7 or 11 swings for the first target to the 61.8% – 76.4% extension.

Around the 22’s 24’s TSG should do a pull back in ((X)) to give us the opportunity to enter again the Long side. Target the weekly extension to the equal legs – 1.236% zone.

 

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DXY Elliott Wave View: Double Correction

DXY Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline to 91.01 ended Primary wave ((3)). Primary wave ((4)) bounce remains in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Up from 91.01, Intermediate wave (W) ended at 92.66 and Intermediate wave (X) ended at 91.591. Near term, while pullbacks stay above 91.591, expect Index to extend higher towards 93.227 – 93.618 area to complete Primary wave ((4)). Afterwards, Index should resume the decline lower or at least pullback in 3 waves. We don’t like buying the proposed bounce.

DXY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

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Cryptocurrencies Bitcoin & Ethereum Short Term Analysis 09.21.2017

The leading cryptocurrencies BTCUSD & ETHUSD rallied up from 09/15 low in a 3 waves Zigzag structure which ended wave (1) as part of an expected 5 waves diagonal to the upside. Both instruments is now doing a short term pullback in wave (2) as a double three toward equal legs area ($3740 – $3549 for bitcoin) and ($269 – $253 for Ethereum) where it should resume higher or bounce in 3 waves at least.

If the pivot at 05/19 lows gives up , then it will be looking to do the double correction from 09/02 peak and extend lower toward ( $2130 – $1650 for BTC) and ($102 – $56 for ETH) before buyers appear again for another 3 waves bounce.

BTCUSD 1H Chart 09.21.2017


ETHUSD 1H Chart 09.21.2017

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliottwave View: AUDJPY Doing a Correction

AUDJPY Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally to 90.31 ended Intermediate wave (W). Intermediate wave (X) pullback remains in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 90.31, Minor wave (W) ended at 88.44 and Minor wave (X) ended at 89.68. Near term, while bounces stay below 90.31, expect pair to extend lower towards 87.36 – 87.8 area to complete Intermediate wave (X). Afterwards, pair should resume the rally to a new high or at least bounce in 3 waves. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.

AUDJPY 1 Hour Elliottwave Chart

 

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Elliott Wave Analysis: AUDJPY Correction Near Complete

AUDJPY Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally to 90.31 ended Intermediate wave (W). Intermediate wave (X) pullback remains in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 90.31, Minor wave W ended at 88.44 and Minor wave X ended at 89.68. Minor wave Y is unfolding also as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((w)) of Y ended at 88.23 and Minute wave ((x)) of Y is proposed complete at 88.89. Near term, while bounces stay below 9/21 peak at 90.31, expect pair to extend lower towards 87.36 – 87.8 area to complete Intermediate wave (X). Afterwards, pair should resume the rally to a new high or at least bounce in 3 waves. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.

AUDJPY 1 Hour Elliottwave Chart

 

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AUDJPY Elliott Wave Analysis 9.29.2017

AUDJPY Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the rally to 90.31 ended Intermediate wave (W). Intermediate wave (X) pullback remains in progress as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Down from 90.31, Minor wave W ended at 88.44 and Minor wave X ended at 89.68. Minor wave Y is unfolding also as a double three Elliott Wave structure. Minute wave ((w)) of Y ended at 88.23 and Minute wave ((x)) of Y is proposed complete at 88.89. Near term, while bounces stay below 9/25 peak at 89.69, expect pair to extend lower towards 87.37 – 87.8` area to complete Intermediate wave (X). Afterwards, pair should resume the rally to a new high or at least bounce in 3 waves. We don’t like selling the proposed pullback.

AUDJPY 1 Hour Elliottwave Chart

 

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CVR Energy (CVI) Daily Bullish Sequence

On November 2016, CVR Energy (NYSE: CVI) made an important low to end a daily correction from 2013 peak, up from there the stock either started a new bullish cycle to take it toward new all time highs or it’s just doing a 3 waves bounce.

We can notice that since last year low, CVI has outperformed the energy sector instruments including crude, XLE and stocks like XOM & CVX. CVR Energy is currently up %104 and looking for further gains during the last quarter of the year.



The energy sector was the weakest performer since the start of the year and despite the recent bounce seen since August 2017 low the majority of related instruments remain with a negative gain for 2017 and only CVI has managed to move back to the positive territory last week leading the move higher.



CVI Daily Chart Elliott Wave View

We mentioned on our previous article about CVI, how the stock is turning bullish after the first leg was unfolding as 5 waves and last week we had the confirmation with the break above January 2017 peak. So currently, CVI is showing a bullish sequence from 11/3/2017 low supporting more upside toward the first target at equal legs area $30.6 – $33.9 and from there we can decide the next path depending on the structure of the correction.



The stock can keep extending as an impulsive 5 waves structure with extension toward 161.8% fib ext area $39 or can end the move as 3 waves zigzag structure before a pullback take place against $12.03 low then higher again. Consequently, the potential scenarios that can take place has a bullish outcome for the stocks and we recommend members to remain on the long side.

 

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Elliott Wave Analysis: EURUSD in a flat correction

EURUSD Short Term Elliott Wave view suggests that the decline from 9/8 peak is unfolding as an expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9/8 high (1.2094), Intermediate wave (A) ended at 1.1837 and Intermediate wave (B) ended at 1.2034. Intermediate wave (C) is in progress as 5 waves. Minor wave 1 of (C) ended at 1.186, and bounce to 1.2 ended Minor wave 2 of (C). Down from there, Minor wave 3 of (C) ended at 1.1716, and bounce to 1.1832 ended Minor wave 4 of (C). Minor wave 5 of (C) remains in progress and can reach as low as 1.16207. This area will also complete Primary wave ((W)) and end cycle from 9/8 peak. Afterwards, pair should bounce within Primary wave ((X)) to correct cycle from 9/8 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing before turning lower again.

Alternatively, if pair extends below 1.16207, then the entire move lower from 9/8 high could be labelled as 5 waves impulse. In this case, the current decline will only end Intermediate wave (3). Then pair should bounce in Intermediate wave (4) before the decline resumes again.

EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

MU Micron Technology INC – Buy the Next Dip

Today we are going to take a look at the weekly chart of the MU Micron Technology Inc. stock which shows a very interesting price structure.

Before we proceed with the analysis, few words about the company. According to Wikipedia, Micron Technology Inc. is an American global corporation based in Boise, Idaho. Furthermore the company produces many forms of semiconductor devices, including dynamic random-access memory, flash memory, and solid-state drives. It’s consumer products are marketed under the brands Crucial Technology and Lexar. Micron and Intel together created IM Flash Technologies, which produces NAND flash memory.

By looking at the Stock price, 2016 and 2017 have been great years for MU. The stock has achieved an 400% parabolic extension to date from the lows at 9.31. The surge in the stock’s price is affiliated mostly to the company’s revenue growth in both sequential and annual basis.

We won’t get into more details with Micron’s very good economic condition but instead focus on the company’s stock.

MU Micron Technology – Weekly Chart


The MU stock has a bullish incomplete sequence from the 11/17/2008 lows at 1.59. Additionally has a bullish sequence from the 2016 lows as well indicating 5 waves for wave ((A)). The 2008 sequence is in effect after breaking above the 12/2014 peak at 36.59. The second after taking the ((A)) peak at 32.33. After short term pull backs the Stock should continue extending higher until reach the equal legs – 1.236% extension of the w – x in red swing at the 42.50’s – 50.34 zone. Additionally, the stock should extend to the 2016 cycle ((A)) – ((B)) equal legs – 1.236% extension to the 50.34 – 56 zone.

From there we should see a larger degree pull back in (x) but at this point to soon to create any calls for that correction.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) is Bullish Commodities

What is OBOR (One Belt One Road)
One Belt One Road (OBOR) is an initiative originally coming from China’s president Xi Jinping in 2013. The plan is the single biggest initiative since the opening up of China to foreign investment. President Xi called it a “project of the century”. In America, globalization has lost its luster under President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy. China is trying to fill the void by setting an example of globalization. The plan involves reviving the ancient Silk Road trading routes, both land and sea. The project has two main components. The first component, One Belt, involves rebuilding 21st century maritime silk road down to Southeast Asia and the Middle East and Europe. The second component, One Road, involves rebuilding silk road economic belt, or the old silk route through Central Asia, Turkey, and Europe.

At the close of “Belt and Road” forum in May 15, President Xi pledged $113 billion in extra funding and urged other countries to join. 68 countries and international organizations have signed up for the mega infrastructure project. It’s a massive global trade and investment initiative to enhance trading opportunities and also demonstrate China’s global influence. The plan primarily invests and builds infrastructure in participant countries in the form of rail network, roads, transportation, port, power,etc.



Some infrastructure projects have already been underway as part of OBOR. From Bangladesh to Belarus, railways,refineries, bridges, industrial park is being built. A freight route linking China’s eastern coast and London has already started operating. In Pakistan, there’s a $46 billion investment for China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to build roads, energy projects, industrial parks, and Gwadar port. In Kenya, a Chinese firm has built a new railway connecting Nairobi to Mombasa.



Why OBOR Creates Huge Demand for Commodities
As OBOR invests and builds heavily in infrastructure, there will be a huge demand for commodities, resources, energy, service, and technology. OBOR will mean pouring a lot of cement for roads and a lot of steel for railways. Steel needs iron ore, energy and coal, while electricity infrastructure will help support the demand for copper. OBOR can also increase shipping demand as infrastructure investment improve ports and open new markets for commerce.

According to BHP Billiton Ltd, the world’s largest miner, China’s One Belt and Road Initiative will add about 150 million tons to global steel demand. Increased appetite from infrastructure will support steel even as there’s slowdown in China’s housing sector. Credit Suisse Group AG said that investment worth a total of $313 billion to $502 billion could go to 62 Belt-Road countries over the next five years. As China continues the effort to liberalize its capital account, enhance the status of RMB (Renminbi), and shifts the growth outwards, OBOR is a development that could have a far reaching impact on financial market and how commodities are traded.

Copper Daily Elliott Wave Chart


Copper Daily Chart is showing either 5 waves impulse from 1.15.2016 low or a 5 swing sequence from 1.15.2016 low. Both interpretations suggest that more upside is favored as far as the metal remains above 1.15.2016 low at 1.9594. Dips therefore is a buy in 3, 7, or 11 swing and we don’t like selling the metal.

 

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Nikkei ( NKD_F) Elliott Wave View: Diagonal Structure

Short term Elliott wave view in Nikkei suggest that the cycle from August 29.2017 low (19055) is unfolding in 5 waves pattern. However looking at the internal subdivision of each wave the bounce looks corrective in nature with upside extensions. Thus suggesting that the Nikkei cycle from August 29 low (19055) could be following a leading Diagonal pattern in Minor wave A higher.

Where Minute wave ((i)) ended at 19740 peak as a flat structure, Minute wave ((ii)) ended at 19229. Minute wave ((iii)) ended at 20496 peak in 3 swings as zigzag structure. Where Minutte wave (a) ended at 19898 and Minutte wave (b) at 19765 low. Minute wave (((iv)) ended at 20131 low. From there Minute wave ((v)) remains in progress in 3 swings, where Minutte wave (w) ended at 20460, Minutte wave (x) at 20305 low. While above 20131 low, Index is expected to see further strength towards 20630 – 20707 to complete wave ((v)) of the Diagonal structure and then it should pull back in 3 waves at least. RSI divergence with respect to wave ((iii)) should remain intact with the next push higher for the diagonal ideal to remain valid. If RSI divergence is erased, then structure would become a triple three Elliott wave structure.

Nikkei 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

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EURUSD Intra-Day Elliott Wave Analysis

EURUSD Intra-Day Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from 9/8 peak remains in progress as an expanded Flat Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9/8 high (1.2094), pair ended Intermediate wave (A) at 1.837. Bounce to 1.2034 ended Intermediate wave (B). Intermediate wave (C) remains in progress and unfolding as 5 waves impulse where Minor wave 1 of (C) ended at 1.186, and Minor wave 2 of (C) ended at 1.2. Down from there, Minor wave 3 of (C) ended at 1.1716 and bounce to 1.1832 ended Minor wave 4 of (C).

While EURUSD stays below 1.1789, it has scope to extend lower in Minor wave 5 of (C) and reach 1.1586 – 1.1633 area. The move lower will also end cycle from 9/8 peak and complete Primary wave ((W)). Afterwards, Pair should bounce in Primary wave ((X)) to correct cycle from 9/8 peak in 3, 7, or 11 swing at least. If pair breaks above 1.17899 from here without making a new low, pair may have ended Primary wave ((W)) already.

EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

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NZDUSD Short-term Elliott Wave Analysis

NZDUSD Short term Elliott Wave view suggests the decline from 9/20 peak remains in progress a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 9/20 high (0.7434), pair ended Minor wave A at 0.7165. Subdivision of Minor wave A unfolded as 5 waves impulse where Minute wave ((i)) of A ended at 0.7276 and bounce to 0.7362 ended Minute wave ((ii)) of A. Afterwards, decline to 0.7166 ended Minute wave ((iii)) of A and Minute wave ((iv)) of A ended at 0.7239. Minute wave ((v)) of A completed at 0.7165. Pair then bounced in Minor wave B in 3 waves and ended at 0.7243. Minor wave C is currently in progress and unfolding also as 5 waves impulse. Minute wave ((i)) ended at 0.7145, Minor wave ((ii)) ended at 0.7206, and Minute wave ((iii)) at 0.7049. While Minute wave ((iv)) bounce stays below 9/29 peak (0.7243), expect pair to extend lower towards 0.6919 – 0.6983 before ending cycle from 9/20 peak.

NZDUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

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FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis 10.11.2017

FTSE Short term Elliott Wave analysis suggests the decline to 7196.58 on 9/15 low ended Primary wave ((4)). The Index is currently within Primary wave ((5)) which is subdivided as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. The first leg Intermediate wave (A) of this zigzag is in progress as 5 waves impulse where Minor wave 1 ended at 7327.50 and Minor wave 2 ended at 7289.75. Up from there, Minor wave 3 ended at 7527.59 and Minor wave 4 ended at 7493.68. The Index has broken above Minor wave 3 at 7527.59, suggesting that it’s in the final Minor wave 5 higher which should also complete Intermediate wave (A).

Cycle from 9/15 low is mature and Intermediate wave (A) could end soon. Once Intermediate wave (A) is complete, Index should pullback in Intermediate wave (B) in 3, 7, or 11 swing to correct cycle from 9/15 low (7196.58) before the rally resumes. We do not like selling the proposed pullback. As far as pivot at 9/15 low stays intact in the Intermediate wave (B) pullback later, expect Index to extend to a new high.

FTSE 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

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World Stock Index has much more upside

The Hang Seng Stock Index is a free float, adjusted market capitalization, weighted stock Market Index in Hong Kong. The Index records and monitors daily changes of the largest companies of the Hong Kong Stock Market. It is the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong. These 50 constituent companies represent about 58% of the capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. At Elliottwave-Forecast, we have been tracking the Index sequences together with the FTSE 100 (The Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 Index). FTSE 100 is the share Index of the 100 companies listed on the London Stock exchange with higher market capitalisation.

The Hang Seng Index and FTSE 100 both are showing the same sequences since the all-time lows and both are showing an incomplete sequence since the lows at 2008-2009 range. Today, the Market today can advance in 2 types of sequences. The first type is 5-9-13 or motive sequence and the second type is 3-7-11 or corrective sequence. Both the Hang Seng Index and the FTSE 100 advance in a corrective sequence and both have not reached the 100% from all-time low.

The Market by nature will always runs in one of the 2 sequences above. Both Hang Seng and FTSE 100 are showing the same outcome which is an extension to the upside within the cycle since 2008-2009 low. The charts below show the extension target in both indices, and the upside in both indices will drive the rest of the World Indices higher. This means that SPX 500 (The Standard & Poor’s 500), which is the market capitalizations of the 500 large companies in the United States, has scope to rally into levels which not many people are expecting such as 3245 or even the 4000 levels.

The rally in SPX 500 from all-time low can become a 5 waves impulse if SPX 500 can break above 3245 before the Hang Seng and FTSE 100 reach the 100% from all time low and finish the blue sequence as charts below show. At the end of the day, the world indices are here to extend and contrary to many popular street opinion, they will remain a buy in the dips in all time frames until Hang Seng and FTSE 100 reach their target.

Hang Seng Stock Index Monthly and Weekly


The Hang Seng Index is showing 5 swings from 2008 lows, which should result in more upside within the blue sequence into the all time 100%. The invalidation for this view in daily degree is the blue 4 low (18278.80) while the invalidation in weekly degree is the black 4 low (10676.29).

FTSE 100 Stock Index
The Index took the 2000 peak, which suggests the bullish sequence from all-time lows is incomplete. In addition, we could also see 5 swing bullish sequence in blue degree from 2009 low, which favors more upside.



The following chart below shows that both Hang Seng and SPX 500 have the same trend



At Elliottwave-forecast, we believe that there’s only one Market. Having 2 Indices calling more upside mean the whole group will trade higher. We believe in cycles, distribution and many other tools in addition to the classic or new Elliott wave Principle.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

DJ Commodity Index is supporting Higher GOLD

The Dow Jones Commodity Index is a broad measure of the commodity futures market that emphasizes diversification and liquidity through a equal-weighted approach. It doesn’t allow any sector to make up more than 33% of its portfolio or any single commodity to make up more than 15%.



Gold is the top weighted commodity of the index with 11.53%, silver only represent 4.14% and Copper 7.51%. Consequently, a total of 23% for metals means that any significant move in that sector should be reflected on the price of DJCI therefore we can use to identify the global trend for commodities around the world.

DJ Commodity Index Weekly Chart


From 2011 peak, the Commodity Index traded lower in a regular flat structure which ended at January 2016 low. Up from there, DJCI started a new bullish cycle showing an incomplete 5 swings bullish sequence and it’s suggesting a move higher toward equal legs area 708 – 750 as long as it stays above the recent June 2017 low.

DJCI vs GOLD vs RGLD

In the above charts, we can notice DJCI is breaking above the 2011 bearish trend-line same as Gold and a related mining stock RGLD. The move is supporting the case for higher commodities in the future especially strong move for Gold.

The precious metal is leading the pack higher as many Gold instruments have a bullish sequence / structure like Royal Gold Stock giving us clues about the next investing opportunity in the stock market

Recap:
The DJ Commodity Index is one of many other indexes that can be used to determine the next move for this sector and as a result of the recent bullish breakout it will give a big boost to the rest of commodities.