Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

EURUSD 1 hour chart below shows that the pair has ended the cycle from July 1 low in wave ((i)) at 1.1467 high. The dip in wave ((ii)) then ended at 1.1399 low. From there, the pair has continued to extend higher. The rally broke above previous wave ((i)) high and ended wave ((iii)) at 1.1601 high. The internal subdivision of wave ((iii)) unfolded as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave Structure. Up from wave ((ii)) low, pair ended wave (i) at 1.1469 high. The pullback in wave (ii) ended at 1.1438 low. The pair then extended higher in wave (iii), which ended at 1.1547 high. Wave (iv) dip ended at 1.1504 low. The last push higher in wave (v) ended at 1.1601 high. This ended wave ((iii)) in larger degree.

Afterwards, the pair did a pullback in wave ((iv)), which ended at 1.1538 low. Currently, wave ((v)) is in progress as the pair has resumed higher and broke above wave ((iii)) high. Wave (i) of ((v)) ended at 1.1627 high and wave (ii)) dip ended at 1.1587 low. While above 1.1399 low, expect dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support for more upside before pair ends 5 waves rally from July 1 low. The pair needs to break above wave (i) high to confirm that next leg higher has started. Otherwise, pair can still do a double correction in wave (ii) before turning higher again.

EURUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. Another instrument that we have been trading lately is S&P 500 E-Mini Futures (ES_F). In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of $ES_F , published in members area of the website. As our members know, $ES_F has recently broken June 9th peak which made it bullish against the 2920.5 low. Short term cycle from the 2920.5 low also shows higher high sequences, calling for further rally. Consequently, we advised members to avoid selling $ES-F and keep on buying the dips in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever get chance. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and Trading strategy.

ES_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 7.22.2020
ES_F has given us pull back that has reached our buying zone, equal legs (a)-(b) black blue at 3231.57-3210.55 ( buyers zone) . From marked Blue Box area area we expect rally to take us toward new highs ideally. As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce. We don’t recommend selling it against the main trend. At this stage we expect to see another short term leg down, which may or may not be seen. Anyway,strategy is buying the dips at the marked blue box area. As the main trend is bullish, we expect to see 3 waves bounce at least from the mentioned zone. As soon as the price reach 50 Fibonacci Retracement against the (b) peak, we should make long positions Risk Free ( put SL at BE).



ES_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 7.22.2020
ES_F found buyers at 3231.35-3210.03 , the Blue Box area. We got nice rally from there, when wave ((iv)) completed at 3235.9 low. All longs from the blue box should be risk free at this stage. As far as the price stays above 3235.9 low and more importantly 3188.3 pivot holds, ES_F can keep trading higher as proposed on the charts.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Glencore plc is a British commodity trading and mining company. Marc Rich has founded the company 1974 which has its headquarters in Baar, Switzerland. Traded under tickers $GLEN at LSE and $GLNCY in US in form of ADRs, it is a component of the FTSE100 index. Glencore plc dominates the copper and zinc trading markets. Therefore, an investment in company shares can provide an exposure to the spot market prices of those metals. Besides that, company has crude oil, natural gas, coal and agriculture production facilities. After years of the prices depression in commodities, copper, crude oil and silver are already turning higher. As a consequence, natural gas and agricultural products may follow. Such a turn, without any doubt, will deliver a positive effect to the shareholders of mining and trading companies. Hereby, Glencore plc as a market leader should not become an exception.

Glencore Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 06.27.2020
The weekly chart below shows the Glencore ADRs $GLNCY in the US. From the January 2016 lows at 1.938, the stock price has developed a cycle higher in wave I. Glencore has printed a top on January 2018 at 11.684. The cycle up is an impulse; blue wave (3) of black wave ((3)) shows a clear extension in price.

From the highs at 11.684, a correction lower has unfolded as a double three correction being a 3-3-3 structure. Black wave ((W)) is, hereby, a zigzag, ((X)) became an expanded flat structure, wave ((Y)) is another double three pattern of lower degree. The wave ((Y)) has reached an equality in length with the wave ((W)) at 3.952. As a consequence, price shows a reaction higher from the equal legs extension area 3.952-1.938. Since the $GLNCY price has broken the trendline higher, wave II showing 7 swings lower is preferred ended on March 2020 at 2.508. While above, Glencore can extend higher in wave III towards 11.684 and higher or do a 3 waves bounce at least.



Glencore 4H Elliott Wave Analysis 07.26.2020
The 4H chart below shows in more detail the advance higher from the March lows at 2.508. The cycle up remains still intact and might be currently in the wave 3 of (1). After a pullback in wave 4, expect another push higher in wave 5 to end the march cycle. Medium-term, a correction lower in wave (2) should find support above the March lows in 3, 7 or 11 swings. Then, an extension higher in wave (3) to new highs should follow or $GLNCY should produce another leg higher at least.

In overall, weekly but also 4H view on $GLNCY shows a correlation with copper prices. The march cycle is similar also to that in silver, oil and indices. All these instruments may be turning up and are expected to see more upside. Therefore, Glencore can be a smart investment for those who want take an advantage of rising prises in both stocks and commodities.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The BEL20 Index Longer Term Swings and Cycles

Firstly the BEL20 Index has trended higher with other world indices since the benchmark was established. The index remained in a long term bullish trend cycle into the May 2007 highs. From there it made a sharp correction lower that lasted until March 2009 similar to other world indices. That is where the index corrected the whole long term bullish cycle from the all time lows. At this point is where this bullish trend, cycle and swing analysis begins. The analysis continues below the monthly chart.

BEL20 Monthly Chart





Secondly, the 2009 lows corrected the whole longer term cycle higher from inception in the benchmark index. The bounce from the March 2009 lows into the January 2018 highs was a clear five swing impulse. The pullback lower from that high is strong enough to suggest it is correcting the whole cycle up from the March 2009 lows. This is determined by reading the RSI and other momentum indicators.

Thirdly, previously mentioned earlier, the pullback from the January 2018 high to the December 2018 lows was strong enough to suggest it is correcting the cycle up from the March 2009 lows. At this point the index could have possibly completed a corrective sequence against the uptrend however some related instruments suggested an otherwise deeper pullback. It did the next swing lower into the March 2020 lows but only after another high was seen into the February 2020 highs.

In conclusion, this expanded flat is a typical and common Elliott Wave corrective structure. Previously mentioned earlier, this is corrected the cycle from the 2009 low. At this point in time from the March 2020 lows it appears the index has five waves up. Afterward of a pullback to correct the cycle from the March 2020 lows it can resume the longer term bullish trend higher.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of CHFJPY , published in members area of the website. As our members know, we've been calling rally in CHFJPY within the cycle from the May low. The pair made pull back that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern ((a))((b))((c)). In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Pattern and the Forecast.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Zigzag pattern.

Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are labeled as A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and ideal retracements.



CHPFJPY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 7.15.2020
The pair is trading within the cycle from the May low. Currently we are getting Wave X red pull back back agianst the June 112 low. Correction still looks incomplete at the moment, suggesting we can get more short term weakness before rally takes place toward new highs.



Let's take a look at the lower time frame to see what short term price structure looks like.

CHFJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 7.15.2020
The pair is doing wave X red pull back that is unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. First leg ((a)) black unfolded as 5 waves down from the peak. Then we got 3 wave bounces in wave ((b)) and finally, we’re doing last leg down ((c)) black. Pull back looks incomplete at the moment. We expect to see 5 waves down n ((c)) leg , ideally toward 112.94-112.61 area. We don’t recommend selling the commodity and expect buyers to appear soon for further rally toward new highs.

You can learn more about Zig Zag Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



CHFJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 7.17.2020
Eventually we got 5 waves down in wave ((c)) as expected. However, the price missed to reach 112.94 area and pull back completed early at 112.987. The pair needs to see break above 06/05 peak in order to confirm next leg up is in progress. Anyway we don’t recommend selling the pair in any proposed pull back and expect it to keep finding buyers in 3,7,11 swings.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The Longer Term Bullish Cycles of the $CAC40

Firstly the CAC 40 index has been trending higher with other world indices where in September 2000 it put in an all time high. From there it followed the rest of the world indices lower into the March 2003 lows which was a larger degree pullback. From there the index rallied with other world indices again until June 2007. It then corrected that rally again as did most other world stock indices. It ended this larger degree correction in March 2009. From those 2009 lows, the index shows an incomplete swing sequence that favors further upside.

Secondly, in February 2020 the uptrend cycle from the March 2009 lows ended with the pullback into the March 2020 lows. While above there the next longer term target area is highlighted on the chart. The analysis continues below the chart.

$CAC40 Index Monthly Chart



The target extension areas are measured as per the following. Use a Fibonacci extension tool on a charting platform. On this chart, point 1 will be at the beginning of the cycle at the March 2009 lows. From there on up to the February 2020 highs will be point 2. The point 3 will be down at the March 2020 lows. The extension areas shown are the same as long as price remains above those March 2020 lows. As of now, the index appears to have an Elliott Wave impulse higher in progress toward say around the 5500 area before it corrects the cycle from the March 2020 lows. It should stay above there while continuing the trend higher.

Lastly in conclusion, the extension areas higher shown on the chart is where the index should be able to reach during this period of multiple world indices bullish trends higher.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hang Seng 15 minutes chart below shows that the index has extended lower from July 7 peak. The decline is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. From July 7 high, wave W ended at 25570.36 low. The bounce in wave X ended at 26103.84 high. The pair then extended lower in wave Y, which ended at 24766.17 low. This completed wave (W) in larger degree. The decline reached the blue box area, which is the 100 - 123.6% extension of wave W-X. From that blue box, the Index did a 3 waves bounce in wave (X), which ended at 25772.41 high. The bounce unfolded as zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure.

Afterwards, the Index continued its decline and broke below previous wave (W) low. This confirms that the next leg lower in wave (Y) is already in progress. Down from wave (X) high, the index extended lower in wave A and ended at 24526.91 low. Wave A low ended at 61.8-76.4% extension of wave (W)-(X). From there, the index is currently doing a bounce in wave B. While below 25772.41 high, the bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to fail. The index then can do another leg lower in wave C before ending wave (Y) in the larger degree. The 100-161.8% extension of (W)-(X) where (Y) can end is between 22486-23743 area.

Hang Seng 15 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Gold has finally broken to a new record high this week, confirming the secular bull market has resumed. We know it's a matter of time as it has made a new all time high to almost all other major world currency. In our public seminar in September 2019, we mentioned that XAUUSD should follow the path of Gold vs other major currencies.

Several factors contribute to the rush to the yellow metal. One of the major drivers is the unprecedented money printing by central banks which continues to devalue paper currency. The Fed has tried to normalize balance sheet last year, but was unable to do it without creating major financial turbulence. This year, things get worse with the pandemic. Central banks around the world continue to pump liquidity to save the economy. They have also pledged to maintain low interest rate for the medium to long term.

Owning Gold in this environment thus becomes more attractive as the opportunity cost is smaller. After all, storing cash in banks do not generate any interest either for the foreseeable future. Another major driver is the falling value of the US Dollar. As commodities are priced in the US currency, fall in US Dollar typically push commodity prices higher. Spot price has already increased 38% since the start of the year as nervous investors buy gold to protect their wealth. The break to new all-time high opens up further upside in Gold and we believe the yellow metal should perform very well in years to come.

Gold (XAUUSD) Weekly Elliott Wave Chart


Weekly Elliott Wave chart above shows that Gold broke to new all-time high above September 2011 high ($1920). A simple wave ((c)) = wave ((a)) measurement gives a target area of 2960 - 3410 in years to come. If the rally becomes impulsive, then this leg higher can a wave ((III)) and it can go to as high as $4130. The outlook of Gold in years to come is indeed positive.

Gold (Daily) Elliott Wave Chart


Daily Elliott Wave chart above shows a simple but effective Elliott Wave analysis. We know that Gold has broken to new all time high so the move higher has to be impulsive. From March Covid-19 low, we can see a clear 3 waves so far and it has reached the 100%. However, since it's impulsive, wave (3) potentially can extend higher to as high as $2180 (161.8% Fibonacci extension). Thus, shorter cycle, further upside still can be seen even though we have reached the 100% minimum target.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave chart of AUDJPY. The Daily chart update below shows that the pair has continued to extend higher from March 19, 2020 low. The rally is proposed to be unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. Up from March 19 low, the pair ended wave A at 65.63 high. The pullback in wave B ended at 62.80 low. Wave C then ended at 70.17 high. This ended wave (W) in the larger degree. Afterwards, the pair did a pullback in wave (X), which ended at 67.63 low.

AUDJPY Daily Elliott Wave Chart


From wave (X) low, the pair has extended higher in wave A, which ended at 76.79 high. The rally higher has broken above previous wave (W) high. This confirms that the next leg higher in wave (Y) is already in progress. The 100% - 161.8% extension of wave (W)-(X) where (Y) can potentially end is between 77.93-84.28 area.

AUDJPY 7.28.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


The 4 hour chart from July 28 shows that the rally in wave A unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Currently, the pullback in wave B remains in progress and is unfolding as a flat correction. As long as the low at 67.61 stays intact, the pullback in 3,7, or 11 swing is expected to find support for further upside to allow the pair to reach the equal leg area in the Daily chart.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Tesla (TSLA) 30 minutes chart below shows that the stock has ended the correction from July 13 peak. The decline unfolded as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure. From July 13 high, wave A ended at 1450 low. The bounce in wave B ended at 1716.47 high. The stock then extended lower in wave C, which ended at 1366.30 low. This completed wave (4) in larger degree. The correction reached the blue box area, which is the 100 – 123.6% extension of wave A-B. From that blue box, the stock has turned higher. This allows buyers at blue box a risk free position.

Up from wave (4) low, the stock rallied higher in wave 1. The subdivision unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Wave ((i)) ended at 1465 high and the pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 1375 low. Afterwards, the stock resumed higher in wave ((iii)), which ended at 1549 high. Wave ((iv)) dips then ended at 1477.60 low. The final push higher in wave ((v)) ended at 1564.70 high. Currently, wave 2 pullback to correct the cycle from July 24 is in progress. As long as 1366.30 low stays intact, the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to find support for more upside. However, TSLA still needs to break above July 13 high to confirm that the next leg higher has started. Otherwise, the stock can still do a double zig-zag correction in wave (4) before resuming higher again later.

Tesla (TSLA) 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave chart of CHFJPY. The Daily chart update below shows that the pair has continued to extend higher from October 4, 2019 low. Up from that low, the pair ended wave (A) at 110.39 high. The pullback in wave (B) ended at 108.82 low. Wave (C) then ended at 114.38 high. This ended wave ((Y)) in the larger degree. Afterwards, the pair did a pullback in wave ((XX)), which ended at 108.67 low. From wave ((XX)) low, the pair has extended higher in wave (W), which ended at 114.59 high. The rally higher has broken above previous wave ((Y)) high, creating an incomplete sequence to the upside. The 100% - 123.6% extension of wave ((Y))-((XX)) where ((Z)) can potentially end is between 116.38-118.19 area.

CHFJPY Daily Elliott Wave Chart


The 4 hour chart from July 29 shows that down from wave (W) high, the pair corrected lower in wave (X). The pullback ended at 112.00 low. Currently, wave (Y) remains in progress and is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. The rally higher in wave W ended at 115.67 high. This rally broke above previous wave (W) high. The pair is now also showing another incomplete bullish sequence targeting more upside. The 100% - 123.6% extension of wave (W)-(X) where (Y) can potentially end is between 117.92-119.32 area. As long as the low at 112.00 stays intact, the pair is favored to see more upside and the pullback in 3,7, or 11 swing is expected to find support.

CHFJPY 7.29.2020 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of the 1 hour Elliott wave charts of Bitcoin ticker symbol: $BTCUSD. In which, the rally from June 27, 2020 low ( $8830) showed an impulse rally higher favored more upside extension to take place. Also, the right side tag pointed higher & favored more strength. Therefore, we advised our members to buy the dips in Bitcoin in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Bitcoin 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Bitcoin 1 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 7/28/2020 London update. In which, cryptocurrency is showing an impulse rally with extended wave ((iii)). Whereas wave ((i)) ended at $9690. Wave ((ii)) pullback ended at $9504 low and wave ((iii)) ended at $11417 high. Down from there, Bitcoin entered wave ((iv)) pullback to correct the short term cycle from $9504 low. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a zigzag structure where lesser degree wave (a) ended at $10816 low. Wave (b) ended at $11263 high and wave (c) managed to reach the blue box area at $10695- $10341 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of (a)-(b). From there, the pair was expected to resume for wave ((v)) or for 3 wave reaction higher at least.

Bitcoin 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Here's Latest 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart from 7/30/2020 Asia update. In which, Bitcoin is showing reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Allowed members to create risk-free position shortly after taking the long positions. However, a break above $11417 high still needed to confirm the wave ((v)) & a possible extension towards $11614- $11933 target area.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Gold 1 hour chart below shows that the metal has ended the cycle from July 6 low in wave 3 at 1981.20 high. The metal has now broken to new all-time high above September 2011 high. The rally from July 6 low unfolded as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave Structure. Up from July 6 low, wave ((i)) ended at 1818.14 high and the dip in wave ((ii)) ended at 1789.87 low. From there, the metal then continued higher and ended wave ((iii)) at 1945.25 high. The pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 1930.50 low. The metal then extended higher in wave ((v)), which ended at 1981.20 high. This ended wave 3 in larger degree.

Afterwards, the metal did a pullback in wave 4, which unfolded as a zig-zag correction. Wave 4 dip ended at 1906.54 low. Up from that low, the metal has resumed higher as another 5 waves impulse in wave ((i)). The rally higher ended at 1980.84 high. Currently, wave ((ii)) is in progress. While above 1906.54 low, expect dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support for more upside later. However, gold needs to break above wave 3 high at 1981.20 to confirm that next leg higher has started.

Gold (XAUUSD) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Nasdaq (NQ_F) 1 hour chart below shows that the Index has ended the correction from July 13 all-time high. The pullback unfolded as a flat Elliott Wave Structure. From July 13 high, wave (A) ended at 10358.75 low. The bounce in wave (B) ended at 11058 high. The Index then extended lower in wave (C), which ended at 10301.91 low. This completed wave ((2)) in larger degree. The correction reached the blue box area, which is the 100 – 123.6% extension of wave (A)-(B). From that blue box, the Index has turned higher. This allows buyers at blue box a risk free position.

Up from wave ((2)) low, the Index rallied higher in wave (1). The subdivision unfolded as a diagonal Elliott Wave Structure. Wave 1 ended at 10531 high and the pullback in wave 2 ended at 10381.25 low. Afterwards, the Index resumed higher in wave 3, which ended at 10635.75 high. Wave 4 dips then ended at 10511.50 low. The final push higher in wave 5 ended at 10758.50 high. Afterwards, the Index did a pullback in wave (2), which ended at 10502.75 low. The Index has resumed higher and has broken above previous wave (1) high, confirming that the next leg higher in wave (3) has started. As long as 10301.91 low stays intact, the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to find support for more upside. However, the Index still needs to break above July 13 peak in order to avoid doing a double zig-zag correction.

NASDAQ (NQ_F) 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

L'Oréal S.A. is the world largest cosmetics and beauty company. Headquartered in Clichy, France, the field of activities concentrates on skin care, hair color, perfume, make-up, hair care, sun protection etc. L'Oréal is a part of Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) and CAC40 indices. Investors can trade it under the ticker $OR at Euronext Paris. As an interesting observation, during the COVID-19 lockdown in Europe from March to June 2020, the stock price has completely recovered from the February-March decline breaking to the new all-time highs.

L'Oréal Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 07.31.2020
The monthly chart below shows the L'Oréal stock $OR listed at Euronext. From the all-time lows, first, the stock price has developed a cycle higher in wave (I) of a super cycle degree. It is clearly an impulsive move consisting of 5 subwaves. Thereafter, a correction lower in wave (II) has unfolded as an Elliott Wave expanded flat pattern. It is a 3-3-5 pattern which has printed an important bottom on February 2009 at 46.5.

From the February 2009 lows, l'Oréal has accomplished an impressive rally in a cycle higher. This rise shows an extension of more than 2.0 multiples in relation to the length of the wave (I). Hence, it qualifies the cycle higher to become the wave (III). It has ended in February 2020 at 278.5.



L'Oréal Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 07.22.2020
The weekly chart below shows in more detail the topping action of the wave (III) and the further development of the $OR stock. From February 2020 highs at 278.5, a sharp corection lower in wave (IV) has retraced a respectable part of the motive cycle higher towards March lows at 195.70. Technically speaking, the decline can be seen as an Elliott Wave zigzag correction. From the March lows, the price has quickly recovered towards new all-time highs in wave (V) which might be still in progress.

Since the wave (III) has shown an extension, a usual target for the wave (V) to end would be 1.0-1.618 multiples of the wave (I). This target is shown as a blue box higher on both the monthly and weekly charts. The minimum target of 292.17 has been already reached. Even though it is time to become a bit cautious, nobody should even try fading an impulse by selling $OR. Still, more upside can be expected before wave (V) might end and a larger correction will take place.



L'Oréal Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 07.31.2020
The daily chart below shows in more detail the internals of the wave (V). The advance higher is looking so far as 3 waves up. The wave ((3)) has not reached the equality with the first leg up in wave ((1)) at 308.13. Currently, wave ((4)) to correct the wave ((3)) is underway. Once bottommed, wave ((5)) should extend higher to end the march cycle in wave I. Based on the major world indices showing a topping behavior, the cycle higher from March lows may end soon. Thereafter, a pullback should take place. Depending on magnitude and RSI reading, this pullback can become wave II of (V) or the wave (II) lower.

As a general observation, L'Oréal is showing a clear motive cycle from the all-time lows, investors will do well when waiting for distinctive pullbacks and buying dips in 3, 7 or 11 swings.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The USDX has been trending higher since the lows in 2008. However, in trading, nothing lasts forever. New traders generally do not last very long in this field, thus most traders only know a strong $USDX due to recency bias. However, in reality, nothing lasts forever, so we at EWF track many different instrument to be able to read the market the right way. We look at various asset categories to gather information which otherwise can't be gathered by just looking at a few instrument.

This article will explain how the $USDINR is telling us about the stage of the $USDX cycle and why we need to be careful soon about chasing the Dollar higher. The Rupee is one of the pairs the US Dollar has been trending with a very well defined channel since the all-time lows. The following chart is a representation of the Grand Super Cycle in the pair.

$USDINR Quarterly Elliott Wave Chart


As we can see in the above chart, the advance has a very well defined channel. Channels are one of the best tools in the Elliott Wave Theory. We can use channel to define an impulse as well as the subdivision of an impulse within the main cycle. Since the all-time lows, we can define a clear (I)-(II)-(III)-(IV)-(V) in blue. The pair is currently trading within an extended wave (V). The charts below show several different variations of an extension in an impulse:



Extension always happens in one of the three impulses advance within a five waves advance. The $USDINR is extending within wave (V) due to the lack of momentum since the lows in 2007. We can see how the RSI shows a momentum divergence which is an indication why the cycle is ending soon.

Looking at the Weekly Time Frame below, we can see the advance since the lows in 2007 as an impulse. The rally is part of the Grand Super Cycle.

$USDINR Weekly Elliott Wave Chart


We should be ending wave III soon but should see still more upside within this cycle. The weekly advance is in seven swings since the lows at wave (IV). Counting it from the lows at red II, then the advance is in seventeen swings. Both are an indication that more upside should happen overall. As we have mentioned before, the $USDX cycle is mature across the market.

As far as the $USDINR stays above the Elliott Wave Channel, extension higher should happen. Consequently, the $USDX should also be supported. But as pair is ending wave III within the 2007, this represents choppiness across the $USDX pairs in the months to come. It will provide soon a very nice entry into the finals stages of the $USDX cycle since 2008. As always, forecasting the market is not an easy task. However, using the Elliott Wave Theory the right way and correlating various instrument using channels, sequences, and swings counts can provide us with an edge in trading. It also allows us to trade with higher convictions and spots any warning the market is sending us. For now, let's enjoy the $USDINR ride, but let's keep an eye at the channel since the all-time lows to gather whether or not to chase the $USDX higher.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Nikola has had quite a stellar 2020. With the stock price running from 10.31 to a high of 97.41 within the span of a few months, there is a lot of eyes on Nikola. They are a zero emissions vehicle manufacturer, using hydrogen cell technology. Lets take a look at the company profile below:

“Nikola Corporation is an American zero emissions vehicle production founded by Trevor Milton in 2014, based in Phoenix, Arizona, where it has its research and development operations and corporate offices. In March 2019, Nikola acquired a 389-acre parcel in Coolidge, Arizona, for US$23 million, with future state and local tax breaks. Nikola said in 2019 that they expected the truck factory to start construction in 2020. To start building trucks in 2021, and be able to build 35–50,000 trucks per year by 2023.[9]

In March 2020, Nikola announced its plans to merge with VectoIQ Acquisition Corporation (ticker VTIQ) a publicly traded special purpose acquisition company run by former General Motors Co. executive Steve Girsky. This resulted in the combined company being listed on the NASDAQ exchange with the NKLA ticker symbol. Nikola’s stock began trading on June 4, 2020, a day after the merger was completed. By June 9, the shares had more than doubled since they began trading, as investors continued to bet on the growth potential of electric transportation. Nikola executive chairman Trevor Milton tweeted in early June that the company would begin taking reservations for the pickup truck, the Badger, on June 29."

There is not much data on the chart, so one does need to be more cautious taking trades on such a young chart. However, the chart does count technically clean. Lets take a look at the Elliottwave view below.

Nikola 4H Elliott wave View



Medium term term view from the March lows. Wave ((1)) is set at 16.25 on 3/05/2020 and wave ((2)) at 10.31 on 3/19/2020. After that, Black ((3)) took place topped on 5/13/2020 at 23.38, and ((4)) at 20.20 on 5/18/2020. After that, Nikola experience an extended ((5)) of Red I which topped on 6/9/2020 at 97.41. Presently, it is favoured that Nikola has possibly set a bottom 7/30/2020 at a low of 29.00. Price action today suggests that the bottom could be set within the blue box extreme area. However it is still possible to get one more low to complete the correction. But at this point, it is getting very extended to the downside, and risk is high for sellers. At this time with the Data present, it is favoured the bottom is set for Red II.

It is favoured for Nikola to form an initial 5 waves impulse up off the low for Blue (1), and then pullback in Blue (2) before heading higher.

In conclusion, Nikola is favoured to advance higher in a Red II advance. First, is favoured for Nikola to form an initial 5 waves impulse up off the low for Blue (1). After that, pullback in Blue (2) then advance in (3) of black ((1)). Black ((1)) can be favoured to top around previous high of Red I.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

DAX 30 minutes chart below shows that the Index has ended the cycle from July 21 peak. The decline unfolded as a zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure. Down from July 21 high, wave (A) ended at 12811.44 low. The bounce in wave (B) ended at 12936.01 high. The Index then extended lower in wave (C), which ended at 12245.06 low. This completed wave ((4)) in larger degree. The correction reached the blue box area, which is the 100 – 161.8% extension of wave (A)-(B). From that blue box, the Index has turned higher. This allows buyers at blue box a risk free position.

Up from wave ((4)) low, the Index rallied higher in wave ((i)), which ended at 12524.75 high. The pullback in wave ((ii)) ended at 12318.22 low. Afterwards, the Index resumed higher in wave ((iii)), which remains in progress. As long as 12245.06 low stays intact, the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings are expected to find support for more upside. However, the Index still needs to break above July 21 high to confirm that the next leg higher has started. Otherwise, the Index can still do 7 swing correction in wave ((4)) before resuming higher again later.

DAX 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this blog, we are going to take a look at the Elliott Wave chart of Bitcoin (BTC/USD). The 1 hour London chart update from July 28 shows that the cryptocurrency ended wave ((iii)) at 11417.11 high. The pair then did a pullback in wave ((iv)). The pullback reached the 100 - 161.8% extension of wave (a)-(b). That area was highlighted with a blue box. A blue box is an area where we expect buyers to appear for 3 waves bounce at least. The cryptocurrency can still make another low within the blue box. However, as long as the 161.8% extension stays intact, Bitcoin is expected to bounce soon from the blue box.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 7.28.2020 1 Hour London Elliott Wave Chart


July 28 1 hour New York chart shows that the cryptocurrency ended wave ((iv)) pullback at 10583.48 low. From there, it has turned higher, allowing any buyers at the blue box a risk free position. However, the cryptocurrency still needs to break above wave ((iii)) high to confirm that wave ((iv)) is already in place and the next leg higher has already started.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 7.28.2020 1 Hour New York Elliott Wave Chart


The latest 1 hour Asia chart from August 4 shows that Bitcoin broke above wave ((iii)) high. It then extended higher and ended wave ((v)) at 12100 high. This also ended wave 3 in the larger degree. The cryptocurrency then did a correction in wave 4, which ended at 10578.23 low. While above that low, the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings are expected to find support for more upside. However, it needs to break above wave 3 high to confirm the next leg higher is in progress. If the low at 10578.23 breaks, then Bitcoin could be doing a double correction in wave 4. Nonetheless, if the cryptocurrency does a 7 swing correction, the equal leg should still see buyers appear for 3 waves bounce later.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD) 8.4.2020 1 Hour Asia Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of COPPER ( $HG_F) published in the membership area of the elliottwave-forecast . As our members know, COPPER is showing impulsive sequences within the cycle from the March 1.974 low. We got 3 waves pull back , that unfolded as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern. The pair reached Equal Legs – Blue Box and found buyers at that area as we expected. In further text we’re going to explain the forecast and Elliott Wave Pattern.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Double Three pattern.

Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern
Double three is one of the most common pattern in the market these days, also known as 7 swing structure. It’s a very reliable pattern which is giving us good trading entries with clearly defined invalidation levels and target areas.The picture below presents what Elliott Wave Double Three pattern looks like. It has (W),(X),(Y) labeling and 3,3,3 inner structure, which means all of these 3 legs are corrective sequences. Each (W) and (Y) are made of 3 swings , they’re having A,B,C structure in lower degree.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Double Three Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



COPPER 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 07.31.2020
COPPER wave 4 red pull back is unfolding as Elliott Wave Double Three Pattern. At this stage we assume that correction still incomplete. First leg of correction ((w)) ended as 3 waves, then we got 3 waves recovery labeled as ((x)) connector. As far as the price stays below (x) blue high and 2.9826 pivot holds. We expect to see another leg down toward 2.8346-2.752 ( buyers area ) which would be 7th swing down from the peak. At that area we expect buyers to appear for proposed rally or 3 waves bounce at least. We don’t recommend selling the commodity and would like to be buyers at the proposed blue box area. As our members know, Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce.





COPPER 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 08.3.2020
COPPER made another leg down. The commodity found buyers right at the upper level of the 2.8346-2.752 ( Blue Box area). So far bounce is still shallow, but we see possibility that wave 4 pull back can be done at 2.8304 low. Last leg down ((y)) black also has corrective sequences. So we assume that 4 red pull back has Double Three structure.We need to see further separation from the lows. As soon as the price reach 50 fibs against the (x) blue high, we will make long positions risk free ( put SL at BE)



COPPER 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 08.4.2020
Eventually we got separation higher as expected. Now all long positions are risk free. Current view suggests short term cycle from the 2.8304 low ended as 5 waves rally and now we're correcting it. The price must stay above 2.8304 to keep this count valid. Otherwise deeper correction can be in progress. Once short term pull back ((ii)) black ends, we would like to see further rally and ideally break of 07/13 peak to confirm next leg up is in progress.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Elliott Wave Forecast