Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 4 hour Elliott Wave Charts of Amazon ticker symbol: $AMZN, which we presented to members. In which, the rally from 16 March 2020 lows, showed the higher high sequence in an impulse structure favored more strength to take place. Also, the right side tag pointed higher & favored more strength. Therefore, we advised our members to buy the dips in Amazon in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

Amazon 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Above is the Amazon 4 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 9/14/2020 update. In which, the rally from 16 March 2020 low unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure where wave (1) ended at $2475 high. Wave (2) ended at $2245 low, wave (3) ended at $3344 high, wave (4) ended at $2888 low. Up from there, wave (5) ended at $3552.25 high and ended the cycle from March lows. Down from there, the stock made a 3 pullback to correct the cycle from 16 March 2020 low. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a double three structure where wave (W) ended at $3111.13 low. Wave (X) bounce ended at $3349.89 high and wave (Y) was expected to reach $2902.14- $2626.03 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of (W)-(X). Before providing a buying opportunity looking for more upside or for 3 wave reaction higher at least.

Amazon 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Here's 4 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 9/22/2020 update, in which the stock managed to reach the blue box area at $2902.14- $2626.03 & showing reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the longs at the blue box area. However, a break above $3552.25 high still needed to confirm the next extension higher & avoid double correction lower.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view of Gold (XAUUSD) suggests the decline from September 1 high is unfolding in impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Down from September 1 high, wave ((i)) ended at $1915.8, and bounce in wave ((ii)) ended at $1973.59. Down from there, wave (i) ended at $1931.90, wave (ii) ended at $1960.14, wave (iii) ended at $1881.87, wave (iv) ended at $1920.02, and wave (v) ended at $1847.90. This completed wave ((iii)) in higher degree. Wave ((iv)) bounce is proposed complete at $1887.29 as a Flat where wave (a) ended at $1877.03, wave (b) ended at $1848.45, and wave (c) ended at $1887.29.

Near term, while below $1973.50, the yellow metal has scope for another low in wave ((v)) of 3, then it should bounce in wave 4 to correct cycle from September 1 high before the decline resumes again in wave 5 of (C) of ((4)). As far as pivot at $1973.50 high stays intact, Gold still can see further downside . Potential target lower is 100% - 123.6% Fibonacci extension from August 7 high which comes at $1752 - $1802. Buyers should be waiting in this area, if reached, for a larger 3 waves bounce at minimum.

Gold (XAUUSD) 60 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Nifty saw a high of 11794.25 at the end of August and then turned lower, we told members the decline should be corrective and present another opportunity for the buyers to enter the market. In this article, we will look at how the decline unfolded and also view the blue box area that we highlighted as the area for 3 waves pull back to end and then rally to resume in wave ((5)) or a 3 waves reaction higher to take place at least. Let's look at some charts of Nifty below.

Nifty 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis - 23 September 2020
Chart below shows Nifty completed wave ((3)) at 11794.25 and them pull back in an overlapping structure to 11185.15 which we labelled as wave (A). This was followed by a 3 waves bounce to 11618.10 which we labelled as wave (B). Down from there, wave 1 completed at 11498.50, wave 2 completed at 11584.10, wave ((i)) of 3 completed at 11446.10, wave ((ii)) of 3 completed at 11535.25, wave ((iii)) and ((iv)) were also proposed to be over and preferred view called for 2 more lows to complete wave (C) in the blue box area (11010 - 10632) to complete wave ((4)). Blue Boxes are High-Frequency areas which are based in a relationship of sequences, cycles and calculated using extensions. We refer to them as High Frequency trading areas, we prefer blue boxes to enter in direction of the trend because blue Boxes are areas where majority of the times, both buyers and sellers again in direction of next move for 3 swings at least and hence why they present high probability / low risk areas to enter the market in direction of the trend.



Nifty 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis - 29 September 2020
Chart below shows Nifty Index reached the blue box to complete proposed wave ((4)) at 10791.03 and reacted strongly higher. Reaction higher appears impulsive and has already crossed 50% retracement level (11204) of the decline from wave (B) and even exceeded the 61.8% retracement from (B) high. The reaction higher allowed any buyers which entered in the blue box to eliminate risk on the trade. We are calling wave 1 completed at 11239.55 and as pull backs hold above 10791, we expect Nifty Index to continue higher. A break of 10791 low can't be ruled out and that will put the Index in a double correction lower from 11794.25, even if this scenario takes place, blue box did the job already and produced a reaction higher which should allow any buyers from blue box to get into a risk free position.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

AUG( Gold/Silver Ratio), Showing A Five Waves From 03.18.2020.
The Ratio between Gold/Silver ( AUG) is a very good indicator of where the market is heading and especially the $USDX trade. The Ratio reached the extreme blue box area early this year when it trades into the 126.23 peaks. We at Elliottwave-forecast always relate the Market and understand how each instrument affects the other. When the Ratio reached the blue box area because we knew that the market was closed for a turn against the $USDX. And it will then affect the value of Silver in a quite simple equation i.e higher Silver means lower $USDX. Similarly lower Silver means higher $USDX. We will explain the forecast below.

Gold To Silver Ratio ( AUG) Monthly Chart


The following chart represented the advance in the Ratio since the old-time lows, and show how the Blue Box area was reached. Meaning a change in dynamics and how we see the relationship between Gold and Silver. The Ratio trading higher means that Gold holds the value more than Silver. But most important means the $USDX is supported. We understand many will not be able to see the relationship between Gold trading higher and $USDX trading either sideways to higher or sideways to lower. The Ratio is like commodities crosses it is a balance between three instruments and always one needs to be sideways.

In this case, Gold, Silver, and USDX, we believe Gold will lag Silver into the news cycle and the $USDX will be the one losing ground. While Gold was leading Silver since 2016. It has been trading higher while Silver trade sideways and even took 2016 low. While $USDX makes a new high in the same period. The blue box reaching means the dynamics change and consequently knowing that will allow traders to get the best out of the Market. Early this year, we presented an article that explains exactly what the Market has been doing.

The article explains that Silver was about to turn higher and the $USDX will turn lower. As right now, we know the Ratio reached the Blue Box and turned lower. We already saw $XAGUSD (Silver) rally and $XAUUSD(Gold) taking the 2011 peak, which was expected. Now, something else has happened, the Ratio is showing a clear five waves decline off the peak at the Blue Box. The idea is explained in the following chart:

Gold To Silver Ratio ( AUG) Daily Chart


The Idea presents the path into three waves bounce and then should see more downside. It will present a unique opportunity for those that understand how the Market works. As we always said, the Market is a series of three instruments, and the five waves lower in the ratio are telling us who will be the winner and who will be losing. The Five waves are telling us where to place our investment and why the $USDX will be the one losing. But also will be telling us that Silver will rally a lot and will be a long term opportunity.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view in GBPJPY suggests that the decline from 01 September 2020 peak unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure where wave ((iii)) ended at 134.55 low. Wave ((iv)) ended at 136.16 high, and wave ((v)) ended at 133.02 low thus completed wave A. Up from there, the pair is doing a bounce in wave B to correct the cycle from the 9/01/2020 peak as a zigzag structure. When initial rally from the lows is taking place in an impulse structure where lesser degree wave (i) ended at 134.82 high. Wave (ii) ended at 133.80 low, wave (iii) ended at 136.25 high, wave (iv) ended at 135.16 low.

Up from there, wave (v) remains in progress in a lesser degree 5 wave structure & expected to reach a minimum extension area towards 136.51- 136.91 area (inverse 1.236%-1.618% ext area) before ending 5 waves within wave ((a)). In case of further extension area in wave (v) the pair can even see (v)=(i) target area as well towards 136.96-137.39 area before entering wave ((b) pullback. Near term, the pullback in wave ((b)) is expected to find support in 3, 7, or 11 swing against 133.02 low for further upside in the pair.

GBPJPY 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

When COVID-19 took over the world, the last sector in the world that I thought would surge as much as it did, is CAMPING! It is important to realize, the Marketplace decides what is hot, and what is not. To be a successful trader, we need to let go of all emotional reason, and focus purely on the technical analysis. What is the analysis saying about Camping World Holdings? It is saying good things.

Lets take a look at what they do as a company:

“Camping World Holdings, Inc. is an American corporation specializing in selling recreational vehicles (RVs), recreational vehicle parts, and recreational vehicle service. They also sell supplies for camping. The company has its headquarters in Lincolnshire, Illinois. In October 2016 it became a publicly traded company when it raised $251 million in an IPO. Camping World operates 120 retail/service locations in 36 states, and also sells goods through mail order and online. It claims to be the world's largest supplier of RV parts and supplies. Recently, it has become the title sponsor of the Camping World Stadium, as well as the Camping World Bowl, which is played in the same stadium. It’s also the official presenting sponsor of MLB’s League Championship Series.”

Lets dig into the chart!

Camping World Holdings Elliott wave View:


There is not much data to go off of on this chart. Camping World set an all time low of 3.40 during the March rout. From that low, it rallied a staggering 1200% from the lows set in March. On a 4H view, from the all time low 3.40, there is 5 waves impulse is complete for Red I @ a price of 43.80. This wave peaked around 5 months after the low that was set in March. After that peak, Camping World has been correcting the March cycle since that time. It is favoured to be in a double correction lower, with at least another low favoured to take place before prices turn back up.

The Blue Box Extreme is an area where buyers may enter for a bounce in 3 waves at least. The 24.15 to 14.37 area can provide a good opportunity for a long setup. Always make sure you have stops in place below the box. If prices bottom in Red II at the 24.15 area, an equal leg move to the upside targets the 64.58 area, which is a great risk reward setup.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view in Nikkei ticker symbol: $NKD_F suggests that the pullback to 22511 low ended higher degree wave ((4)). Up from there, the index is nesting higher in an impulse sequence favoring more upside extension where wave 1 ended at 22885 high. Wave 2 ended at 22620 low, wave 3 ended at 23305 high. Down from there, wave 4 pullback unfolded as a zigzag structure where wave ((a)) ended at 22915 low. While wave ((b)) ended at 23175 high and wave ((c)) ended at 22890 low.

Above from there, the rally to 23650 high ended wave 5 & thus completed wave (1). Below from there, the index is doing a wave (2) pullback to correct the cycle from 9 September 2020 low (22511) as double three structures before the upside resume. So far, the Nikkei has already made a 3 wave pullback from the peak & completed wave W at 23165 low. And above from there, wave X bounce remains in progress approximately towards 23470- 23530 area before starting the Y leg lower entering into another buying area. Alternatively, if it extends lower from current levels then the next area of interest for buyers would be at 22935- 22635 area lower where buyers should appear again. Near term, the pullback in wave (2) is expected to find buyers in 7 or 11 swing against 133.02 low for further upside in the pair.

Nikkei 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The chart below of the EURAUD pair shows clear and visible bearish signals where the pair would find SELLERS and allow a trader to get in the market. A trader should always have a minimum of 3 reasons to enter a trade. In the case of EURAUD below, first reason was that there was visible evidence of a support and resistance zone (black) where the pair respected and reversed lower from. Second reason was the pair formed a bearish divergence pattern (pink) in this zone which added more evidence that bears will be entering the market. The third added bearish evidence was when price touched, respected and stayed below the 200 Moving Average Dynamic Resistance (black) which was a sign that price would not push higher and instead reverse and push lower. The 200 Moving Average was also situated in the zone which signalled SELLERS that the support and resistance zone was a key area. SELL trade was entered when price started to push lower and stop loss was set above the top of the bearish divergence pattern start point and only a move above this level would invalidate the SELL trade. EURAUD eventually moved lower and hit the 1:1.5 RR - 1:2 RR target zone for over +100 pips. No matter what the reasons a trader uses to enter a trade a minimum combination of three evidences will always allow a trader to feel confident in entering the trade and also allow a trader to see a clearer trade setup.

EURAUD 30 Minute Chart September 30 2020



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Danone is a multinational food-products corporation. Founded 1919 in Barcelona, it is headquartered in Paris. Through the years, it has seen mergers with Gervais in 1967 and with BSN in 1973. Danone is a part of CAC40 index. Investors can trade it under the ticker $BN at Euronext Paris and under $DANOY in US in form of ADRs. Corporation Danone, in US under the name Dannon, is well-known through the trademarks like Actimel, Alpro, Evian, Volvic, Badoit, Activia, Taillefine, Danette, Blédina and others. The company products are present in 120 countries.

The stock price of Danone is in permanent rally from the all-time lows. However, the monthly average presents more or less a linear form of the rise. That means, that soon or later the price action may switch into an acceleration mode. Indeed, stocks are known to show an impulsive breakout above the base channel in a 3rd wave after a development of a long basis or/and series of nests. In Danone, we can, therefore, expect a breakout to happen which may bring the prices considerably higher.

Danone Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 10.04.2020
The monthly chart below shows the Danone shares $BN traded at Euronext Paris. From the all-time lows, the stock price has developed a cycle higher in wave (I). Hereby, Danone has printed the top on February 2007 at 60.66. Within the impulsive advance in wave (I), the internals I, III and V are impulsive waves, too. From the 2007 highs, a correction lower in wave (II) has unfolded as a regular flat pattern being a 3-3-5 structure. It has found its bottom in March 2009 at 31.20.

From the March 2009 lows, a new cycle in wave (III) has started to the new highs. Break of 60.66 has confirmed that. The price has printed the all-time highs in wave I of (III) at 82.40 in September 2019. The pullback lower in wave II might have ended in March 2020 at 50.20. While above there, wave III of (III) may extend towards 60.66 and higher.



Danone Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 10.04.2020
The Daily chart below shows the $BN shares price action in more detail. From the March lows at 50.20, the stock price has advanced in 5 waves of a blue wave (1). The preferred view is a leading diagonal which has ended at 65.70. From there, a double correction lower should find suport above 50.20. In particular, $BN can reach lower towards 51.17-50.20 extension area before the price may turn higher again. Breaking below 50.20 would open a bearish sequence with an expectation of more downside. As of right now, however, Danone is expected to extend higher in wave (3) of ((1)) of III.

As an outlook, while above 50.20, the new cycle in red wave III should bring the prices towards 101.44-133.02 area and even higher. In a larger time scale, the target for blue wave (III) will be 92.02-129.50 and higher. Entering at current price levels or from 51.17-50.20 area and expecting €92 per share in a long run, investors in food-products sector do obtain a good risk-reward ratio by taking on with the Danone stock.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Soybeans ZS_F , published in members area of the website. As our members know, ZS_F is showing impulsive sequences in the cycle from the April 808'0 low. Consequently we’ve been calling rally in Soybeans. Recently the commodity made pull back that has unfolded as Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Pattern and the trading strategy.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Zigzag pattern.

Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are labeled as A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and ideal retracement.



Soybeans ZS_F 1h Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 9.23.2020
Currently we are getting Wave ((iv)) pull back that has form of Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. So far we got 5 waves down from the peak, that is labeled as wave (a). Then we got 3 waves bounce in (b) short term recovery and breaks toward new lows. Correction still looks incomplete at the moment, suggesting we can get more short term weakness before rally takes place toward new highs.We expect to see more downside in (c) leg. Proposed extension lower should ideally follow toward 1003'7-983'3 blue box area until it completes 5 waves in (c) leg as well.
We don’t recommend selling the commodity and would like to be buyers at the proposed blue box area. As our members know, Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Double Three Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



ZS_F 1h Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 10.02.2020
Eventually Soybeans Futures made extension down an found buyers right at the 1003'7-983'3 ( Blue Box area). Pull back ended at the 986'0 low. As far as that pivot holds, wecan see further rally in commodity . We don’t recommend selling and favor the long side from the blue box. As the bounce has already reached 50 fibs against the middle pivot , members who took long positions should be risk free.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The second stimulus bill currently under negotiation may be the next catalyst for the decline in US Dollar. The negotiation between Democrat and Republican gained urgency last week as President Trump contracted the virus and required hospitalization. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin continues to negotiate a proposal to send second stimulus check and other aids to Americans. The Democrats offered a $2.2 trillion package whereas the White House administration offered $1.6 trillion. There is currently still a $600 billion gap between the two parties. However, both sides have come closer compared to weeks ago when negotiations broke down.

Pelosi outlined some key areas that need compromises such unemployment benefits and local funding. President Trump himself seems to be eager to strike a deal as he tweeted from Walter Reed Medical center. He pressed lawmakers and members of the administration to reach an agreement of a new coronavirus stimulus package as he receives treatment for COVID-19.



With the House scheduled to break following Friday's session and Senate heading out next week, negotiation is running out of time before election day. But leaders of the Senate and House of Representative can extend the break schedule if there's any agreement.



There's also talk that an agreement on the outlines of a new stimulus package can arrive as soon as mid-week. If the stimulus bill can pass through, it may boost risk appetite and reduce demand for the safe haven currency such as Yen and US Dollar.

EURUSD Weekly Chart


Weekly chart of EURUSD above shows pair breaking above July 2008 bearish trend line suggesting that the cycle is over. Pair may at minimum rally in larger 3 waves to correct the decline from July 2008 peak. Near term dips can see support in the sequence of 3 or 7 swing for further upside. The agreement on stimulus bill, if it happens, may be the catalyst for the next move higher.

EURUSD 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


4 hour chart of EURUSD above suggests pair has ended a 3 swing pullback at a blue box and turns higher. It still has scope to do a 7 swing double zigzag to correct rally from March 20 low. However, as the first weekly chart suggests, pair has broken above 2008 bearish trend line and most likely should see more upside eventually. Thus, although a 7 swing pullback in wave ((2)) pullback still can happen, it's not a must

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we are going to take a look at the past performance of 4 hour Elliott Wave Charts of XLY, which we presented to members. In which, the rally from 18 March 2020 lows, showed the higher high sequence in an impulse structure favored more strength to take place. Also, the right side tag pointed higher & favored more strength. Therefore, we advised our members to buy the dips in XLY in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

XLY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Above is the XLY 4 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 9/14/2020 update. In which, the rally from 16 March 2020 low unfolded as 5 waves impulse structure. Whereas wave ((1)) ended at $133.32 high, wave ((2)) ended at $121.86 low. Up from there, wave ((3)) unfolded as another 5 wave structure when wave (1) ended at $130.93 high. Wave (2) ended at $122.93 low, wave (3) ended at $151.20 high. Wave (4) ended at $148.99 low and wave (5) ended at $154.14 high and completed wave ((3)).

Down from there, the ETF made a wave ((4)) pullback to correct the cycle from the 6/15/2020 low before the upside resume. The internals of that pullback unfolded as a double three structure where wave (W) ended at $143.62 low. Wave (X) bounce ended at $150.28 high and wave (Y) was expected to reach $139.67- $133.11 100%-161.8% Fibonacci extension area of (W)-(X). Before providing a buying opportunity looking for more upside or for 3 wave reaction higher at least.

XLY 4 Hour Elliott Wave Chart


Here’s 4 hour Elliott Wave Chart from 10/03/2020 Weekend update, in which the ETF managed to reach the blue box area at $139.67- $133.11 & showing reaction higher taking place from the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the longs at the blue box area. However, a break above $154.14 high still needed to confirm the next extension higher & avoid double correction lower.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view in Dow Futures (YM) suggests that the rally from March 23, 2020 low remains in progress as a 5 waves diagonal Elliott Wave structure. In the 45 minutes chart below, we can see wave ((4)) of that diagonal ended at 26407. The Index still needs to break above previous peak on September 3 at 29180 to avoid a double correction.

Wave ((5)) is currently in progress as an impulse Elliott Wave structure. Up from wave ((4)) at 26407, wave 1 ended at 26971, and pullback in wave 2 ended at 26424. Index resumed higher in wave 3 at 27619, wave 4 pullback ended at 27039, and wave 5 ended at 27962. This completed wave (1) of ((5)) in higher degree.

From there, Index pullback in wave (2) and ended at 27105 as a zigzag Elliott Wave structure. Down from wave (1) at 27962, wave A ended at 27543, wave B ended at 27741, and wave C ended at 27105. Index has resumed higher and broken above wave (1) at 27962, suggesting the next leg higher has started. Near term, while dips stay above 27105 low, expect Index to extend higher.

Dow Futures (YM) 45 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

UUP Remains Bullish In Cycles from May 2011

Firstly the dollar tracking ETF fund UUP inception date was 2/20/2007. Interestingly the dollar index has a low in March 2008. The UUP ETF fund shows a low in May 2011. The dollar index did make a pullback cycle low in May 2011 however it was well above the March 2008 lows. The bullish cycle up from the May 2011 lows in UUP is the focus of this analysis where it begins on the monthly chart. It should see some further upside relatively soon before any more larger size downturns in the longer term cycles.

The analysis continues below the $UUP monthly chart.



Secondly the bullish cycle up from the May 2011 lows in UUP appears to be advancing higher with some overlap in the cycles. This is as per would any diagonal. However price has got above the January 2017 highs giving the dollar representative instrument a bullish sequence. From the May 2011 lows the dollar instrument appears to have at least 4 swings in place to the January 2018 lows. From there according to the momentum indicators used here it ended a cycle up at the October 2019 highs in a 5th swing. The pullback into the March 9 2020 lows was the 6th swing. It was strong enough to suggest it was correcting the cycle up from the January 2018 lows.

Thirdly and in conclusion, the swing and Elliott Wave count suggests further upside in the dollar later. March 2020 has seen some fast 6th & 7th swings. The best reading of the cycles suggest after a near term bounce it will see another low under the March 2020 lows toward the 24.63 to 23.78 area. Afterward, it can see further strength higher trend for a couple of years in a 9th swing. This should carry the dollar instrument toward the 30.96 area before a significant turn back lower.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Energy producers. It is a sector that has been in a strong bearish trend since the June peak. But there are some companies that have better structures than others. Matador Resources is one of those companies that have shown relative strength since the June Peak and continues to show promise. Today we are going to look at both the MTDR chart, and also the XLE ETF chart. There are a few scenarios that can take place for where MTDR can strike a low. Lets take a look at some charts.

Matador Resources Co Elliott wave View:




When comparing to the XLE chart below, we can see very clearly, that Matador has not yet broken the July Lows. XLE ETF has broken well below the lows and is on its way to reach the equal leg extreme blue box area. This shows relative strength with Matador vs the rest of the energy producer sector.

On the Matador chart, from the March 2020 low at 1.11, there is a 5 waves advance into black ((1)) which peaked at 12.95 on June 8/2020. That is a very impressive 1100% gain in the short span of a few months. From there, the swings are lining up well with the XLE Energy ETF shown below. Matador has an equal leg extreme blue box area of 4.57 to the invalidation level of 1.11. An area where buyers may show up for a bounce in 3 waves at least. But considering the relative strength of this name, it may strike a low when the XLE energy ETF hits its equal leg blue box. A lower low than the Blue (W) low of 7.10 is needed at minimum for Matador. But how deep MTDR can go will depend on when the broad energy sector produces a turn.

XLE Energy Producers ETF Elliott wave View:


When looking at XLE ETF. We can see that an equal leg extreme 25.43 to invalidation level 23.13 is much closer than the blue box for MTDR. An area to watch for a broad turn in the Energy Producer complex is that blue box extreme on the XLE ETF. If XLE manages to get there, and MTDR gets to the orange box which is the 0.618 to 0.762 area, then MTDR may strike a low the same time as XLE. At this point, it all comes down to timing for when a turn may take place.

In Conclusion. Ideally, the MTDR price will get down to the blue box extreme the same time as the XLE hits the blue box. But watch for clues on how XLE reacts at that area, as for if MTDR can find a low at the 0.618 instead.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave view in Facebook (FB) calls the rally from September 21 low as a 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave structure. In the short term chart below, wave 2 is seen to have ended at $245.41. Up from there, wave ((i)) ended at 251.9, and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at $246.61. Wave ((iii)) ended at $259.98, wave ((iv)) ended at $254.82, and wave ((v)) ended at $263.33. This completed wave 3 in higher degree.

From there, pullback to $258.05 ended wave 4 and wave 5 ended at $268.33 as an ending diagonal. The 5 waves move from September 21 low ended wave (1) in higher degree. Wave (2) is now about to end as a zigzag structure. Wave A of (2) ended at $258.80 and wave B of (2) ended at $265.59. Stock has now reached the minimum target to end wave C of (2) at the blue box area of $250.2 - $256.1.

Expect Facebook soon to find buyers from the blue box area for more upside or 3 waves bounce at least. As far as pivot at $245.41 low remains intact, stock should see further upside.

Facebook (FB) 30 Minutes Elliott Wave Chart

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

World Indices, as we always said at Elliott Wave Forecast, are an easy trade across the Marketplace. Indices by nature will always be trending higher. Unfortunately, many traders do not understand that concept. Our nature is bullish, we are coming from living in caves to where we are right now. Humans have been always looking for new inventions, new technologies, new ways to grow. Human Nature is the fuel that makes the Indices trending higher. Over the years, we have always applied this concept to our charts.

When many voices across the Marketplace have been calling a total crash within the Indices, we have never entertained that idea. As a matter of fact, we have been always bullish and we have adjusted the Elliott Wave Theory to the most possible Bullish view. We have done it and do it until the Market proves us otherwise. Through the years, we have been able to call every important pullback with a high degree of accuracy. Hereby, we used a Technique which is very simple: we have overviewed the entire Marketplace locating those Indices, Stocks and ETF’s which were showing indications of a possible top. Hereby, one single Index, Stock or ETF can not be traded by itself, but it can provide clues. Since the year 2008, the pullbacks became easy to forecast and the warning sign could be clearly interpreted.

World Indices have experienced important pullbacks in years 2008, 2015, 2018 and 2020. In this article, we will explain the reason behind those pullbacks. In fact, there are two ways to expect them. The first one is when an instrument is trading within a Blue Box area. Indeed, 85% of the time a reaction happens from the Blue Box. The other way is when a visible five waves structure comes together. Also, one needs to see all the subdivisions within it to be in place. Blue Box reaction happens, by definition, due to an agreement. Hereby, both sides of the Market, bulls and bears, do agree into a pullback. One side takes profit and the other side enters the Market. In other words, that is how "smart money" trade.

Pullback in Indices of 2008
Let’s now start with the crash of 2008. That is the biggest pullback which the World Indices have ever seen. Indices like $SPY, $SPX among others were ready to rally from the 2002 lows. They made already three waves pullback since the peak in 2000, but they found a huge reason to sell. The following chart is the monthly chart of the Hang Seng Index.



The cycle from the all-time lows in Hang Seng has ended in 2000. Then, similar to $SPX, it saw a pullback into the year 2003. Thereafter, a tremendous rally has happened. Hang Seng has reached the Blue Box target area from the all-time lows. There was no way that that fact of Hang Seng arrival in the Blue Box area will allow the $SPX to enter wave III higher within the Grand Supercycle. So, consequently, the Market was in a need to fix itself. Therefore, another pullback did happen in Hang Seng and the $SPX has performed another leg lower of a flat correction. This example makes it obvious how a Blue Box area can call a pullback across the World Indices.

Pullback in Indices of 2015
The pullback in indices in 2015 was also easy to anticipate using the same Technique. This time around, the Index of reference is $NIFTY. Back in 2015, it was showing a clear seven swing advance from the lows. As a matter of fact, the Market runs always in sequences of 5-9-13 (motive sequences) or 3-7-11 (corrective sequences). The following chart shows a sequence of seven swings into the Blue Box area.



The combination of swings number and Fibonacci based Blue Box extension area was enough to create the pullback of 2015 across the Market.

Pullback in Indices of 2018
The pullback of 2018 could be also clearly anticipated. Again, the indian stock market index $NIFTY has provided the clue. After the pullback of 2015, the Index has performed a strong rally. Hereby, it made another seven swings corrective sequence higher into another Blue Box area. This time, we have 7 swings from 2016 and we have also 15 swings since the all-time lows. Combination of both should provide an enhanced effect. Indeed, World Indices pulled back and the Blue Box area has proven to work one more time. The following chart is presenting the idea and shows how we were expecting the pullback from the area.



Pullback in Indices of 2020
Last not least, we are looking for the pullback in the World Indices of this year 2020. Back those weeks, we could anticipate the pullback to happen because we were able to identify five waves from the lows in 2009. In fact, many Indices, ETF’s and Stocks were showing five waves higher from 2009 lows. Here is a chart from the last year 2019 showing the pullback in $SPY to happen in the coming years.



We at Elliott Wave Forecast were looking for a top to occur during the year 2020. And it did happen, during February-March 2020. .

Summary
In this article, we have demonstrated the pullbacks in the Indices can be forecasted. Also we have underlined the importance of the idea that, by nature, the trend in Indices is always bullish. Therefore, ability to see the pullbacks offers a great opportunity to buy again and, consequently, make a profit. We have done it successfully over many years. Very soon, once again, another pullback in Indices will be takings place. This time around, Japanese index Nikkei $NKD is giving us the clue. From the lows on March 2020, the Index is showing a very well defined five waves structure. It gives us a clear warning signal. Even though the Indices may still extend higher within the cycle from the March 2020 lows, soon, the biggest pullback since March is about to happen. The following chart is showing the five waves higher including the internal subdivisions.



The chart shows also the expected pullback. Smart Money is just about to make the move.

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of Wheat Future ZW_F , published in members area of the website. As our members know, ZW_F is another instrument that we have been trading lately. Future is showing higher high sequences in the cycle from the June (468'2) low . The price structure of Wheat Futures has been calling for further rally. Consequently, we advised members to avoid selling ZW_F and keep on buying the dips in the sequences of 3,7,or 11 swings whenever get chance. In further text we’re going to explain Elliott Wave Forecast and trading strategy.

Wheat ZW_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 10.02.2020
Current view suggests the commodity is bullish against the 538'0 pivot . As of right now we are getting ((iv)) pull back. The price has already reached equal legs area at 566'2-555'1 (buyers zone). We favor the long side from the marked blue box area. As the main trend is bullish, we expect to see 3 waves bounce at least from the mentioned zone. Once the price reach 50 Fibonacci Retracement against the(b) blue peak, we should make long positions Risk Free ( put SL at BE).

As our members know, Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a bounce.

You can learn more about Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.



Wheat ZW_F 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis 10.07.2020
Wheat futures found buyers at 566'2-555'1 , the Blue Box area. We got nice rally from there, when wave ((ii)) pull back completed at 561'2 low. All longs from the blue box should be risk free at this stage. As far as the pivot at 561'2 pivot holds , we expect ZW_F to keep trading higher within wave ((iii)) as shown on the charts. We don’t recommend selling it, and favor staying long from the blue box in risk free positions.

You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Keep in mind not every chart is trading recommendation. The best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.



Elliott Wave Forecast

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

NIO Inc. is a pioneer in China’s premium electric vehicle market. The company designs, jointly manufactures, and sells smart and connected premium electric vehicles, driving innovations in next generation technologies in connectivity, autonomous driving and artificial intelligence. Back in August of this year, we called for the stock to rally to a new high before starting a larger pull back to correct the cycle from September 2019 low. The expectations were for it to end 5 waves impulsive Elliott wave sequence higher from September 2019 low with a new high. However, the rally has extended more and we now have an incomplete sequence higher from July 17, 2020 low which calls for more upside and the rally is now beginning to look more like wave III of (III) than wave I of (III). In this blog, we will look at the updated forecast for NIO stock and next targets to the upside.

NIO Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis - 10.08.2020




NIO Daily Elliott Wave Analysis - 10.08.2020

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Every trader that uses the Elliott Wave theory as part of their trading analysis knows that the strongest and longest of a impulse wave pattern is the wave 3. On October 8/2020 we at EWF advised our clients, in our members only area, that the AUDUSD pair was forming this impulse wave pattern.

The chart below was posted in our members only area showing that we were calling for the impulse move higher and advising our clients that the wave 2 red terminated and the pair was getting ready to rally higher for a wave ((iii)) black of wave 3 red to complete the higher degree move of the wave (C) blue. Invalidation level was set at the start of the proposed impulse wave sequence. Only a break below the wave (B) blue would cancel the impulse move higher. When you understand Elliott Wave structures, traders could have placed tighter stops below the wave 2 red low for if price broke below this level it will show that the pair would not have enough momentum to rally higher.

AUDUSD 45 Minute Midday Update Chart October 8 2020



On October 8 2020 I posted on social media @AidanFX 2 BUY entry setups for the wave 3 rally higher. The 1st AUDUSD BUY entry (below) shows price was respecting the support/resistance zone (brown) and candlestick formations were producing shadows/wicks in this zone signalling that buyers were trying to push the pair higher. Trade was entered on the first signs of rejection of the zone and stop loss was set at the proposed wave 2 red low of the Elliott Wave structure.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart October 8 2020



AUDUSD 2nd BUY entry (below) shows price moved higher from the support/resistance zone (brown) and formed a bullish ascending triangle breakout pattern (orange). Buy entry was triggered when price broke above the triangle pattern with stop loss at the black wave ((ii)) low of the proposed Elliott Wave structure.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart October 8 2020



In the chart below, AUDUSD eventually rallied higher and hit the 1:2 RR BUY targets on both entries. The pair has strong momentum to the upside and we expect price to continue higher hitting more targets above. The Elliott Wave bullish impulse wave sequence is not complete and the recent wave 3 red move higher has not shown completion so we can still assume the market is still currently on the red wave 3 rally. Expect higher prices in the coming trading days. If you followed me on Twitter/Stocktwits @AidanFX you too could have caught the AUDUSD move higher.

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart October 9 2020



Of course, like any strategy/technique, there will be times when the strategy/technique fails so proper money/risk management should always be used on every trade. Hope you enjoyed this article and follow me on Twitter for updates and questions> @AidanFX