Elliott Wave Analysis by EWF

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. is an American movie theater chain headquartered in Leawood, Kansas, and the largest movie theater chain in the world. Founded in 1920, AMC has the largest share of the U.S. theater market ahead of Regal and Cinemark Theatres. It has 2,866 screens in 358 theatres in Europe and 7,967 screens in 620 theatres in the United States.

AMC Daily Chart March 2022​

AMC reached a value of 72.62 in February 2021 and it started a deep correction. That is why we are calling wave (I) at that peak. The correction has extended lower until now as a zig zag structure 5-3-5. We could see 5 swings down from the peak and we labeled as a leading diagonal. These 5 waves completed wave “a” at 28.91 and bounce in wave “b”. Wave “b” rally until 52.79 making 7 swings up as a double correction and turned lower again. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory, follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory).

Since there, we were looking for 5 waves down to complete wave (II). The impulse from wave “b” already made 4 waves down and we are developing the last one. Wave ((1)) ended at 33.74. Bounce to 45.95 finished wave ((2)) and dropped again. Wave ((3)) made 5 swings more down ended at 13.40 and pullback to 20.96 was wave ((4)). Currently, it is developing the wave (4) and (5) of ((5)) to complete wave "c" of the zig zag correction and also wave ((II)). The price should fall to 12.90 – 9.09 area to finished the correction and rally. In case AMC breaks 20.96, the wave ((II)) should be in and the rally already will have started.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/amc-correction-done-needs-one-low/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Newmont Mining (ticker: NEM) is the world's largest gold mining company, based in Greenwood Village, Colorado, United States. It has ownership of gold mines in Nevada, Colorado, Ontario, Quebec, Mexico, the Dominican Republic, Australia, Ghana, Argentina, Peru, and Suriname. Newmont is the only gold producer listed in the S&P 500 Index. The company is leading the miner sectors and close to break its previous all-time high in the year 1987 at $81.92. The stock made an intraday high of $80.75 earlier this month on March 8. Below we will look at the Elliott Wave chart of the company

NEM Monthly Elliott Wave Chart​

Monthly chart above goes back to as far as 1987 where the peak in 1987 at $81.92 ended wave ((I)) in grand super cycle degree. Wave ((II)) pullback ended at $12.75 in year 2000. The stock is currently within a larger grand super cycle wave ((III)) which subdivides into another 5 waves impulse. Up from wave ((II)), wave (I) ended at $62.72 on January 2006 and pullback in wave (II) ended at $15.39 on August 2015 low. Stock then rallies higher again in wave (III) of ((III)). Cycle from August 2015 low is expected to end soon in wave I as 5 waves impulse. Then the stock should pullback in wave II to correct cycle from August 2015 low before the rally resumes.

NEM Daily Elliott Wave Chart​

Daily Elliott Wave Chart of Newmont mining (NEM) above suggests the stock may see 1 more push higher before ending wave ((5)). This would also complete wave I in higher degree and end cycle from August 2015 low. Stock can then see pullback in larger degree to correct the cycle from August 2015 low before the rally resumes. Pullback should offer an opportunity to buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/newmont-mining-nem-leading-miners-upside/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Tapestry, Inc. (formerly: Coach, Inc.) is a multinational luxury fashion holding company based in New York City, USA. The parent company owns three brands: Coach New York, Kate Spade New York and Stuart Weitzman. The stock of the company being a component of the S&P500 index can be traded under ticker $TPR at NYSE. Currently, we see cotton turning higher. Also, other soft commodities are moving up. Therefore, Tapestry being a heavy weight in the textile market should be a great opportunity for investors to diversify their portfolio by indirect investement in the rising prices of particularly soft commodities.

Tapestry Monthly Elliott Wave Analysis 03.21.2022​

The Monthly chart below shows the Tapestry shares $TPR traded at NYSE. First, the stock price has developed a leading diagonal higher in blue wave (I) of super cycle degree. It has printed the all- time highs in March of 2012 at 79.70. From the highs, a correction lower in blue wave (II) has unfolded as an Elliott wave double three pattern. It has printed an important bottom in April of 2020 at 10.18. As a matter of fact, the stock price has lost 87% of its value in only 8 years.

​

Tapestry Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 03.21.2022​

The daily chart below shows the early stages of the blue wave (III). From April 2020 lows, $TPR has developed a textbook impulse higher in red wave I. It has ended in May 2021 at 49.66. From the highs, consolidation in wave II is developing as a double three correction. While below 47.05, the next bouncing area is 33.91-25.77. The stock price has reached it. However, based on short-term bearish sequences in american indices, we expect still a new low to take place. Investors and traders can be looking to buy the pullback from 33.91-25.77 area targeting 89.90-139.21 area and even higher in the long run.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/luxury-stock-tapestry-offers-opportunity/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog, we will look at the past performance of 1 hour Elliott Wave Charts of XME. We presented to members at the elliottwave-forecast. In which, the rally from 28 January 2022 low unfolded as an impulse structure. And showed a higher high sequence favored more upside extension to take place. Therefore, we advised members not to sell the ETF & buy the dips in 3, 7, or 11 swings at the blue box areas. We will explain the structure & forecast below:

XME 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

Here’s 1hr Elliott wave chart from the 3/15/2022 Pre-Market update. In which, the cycle from 2/24/2022 low ended in wave (3) as an impulse structure at $61 high. Down from there, the ETF made a pullback in wave (4) to correct that cycle. The internals of that pullback unfolded as Elliott wave zigzag structure where wave A at $56.48 low. Wave B ended at $60 high and wave C managed to reach the blue box area at $54.12- $50.49 area. From there, buyers were expected to appear looking for the next leg higher or for a 3 wave bounce minimum.

XME Latest 1 Hour Elliott Wave Chart​

This is the latest 1hr Elliott wave Chart from the 3/22/2022 Post-Market update. In which the ETF is showing a strong reaction higher taking place, right after ending the zigzag correction within the blue box area. Allowed members to create a risk-free position shortly after taking the long position at the blue box area.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/xme-reacting-higher-blue-box/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Eastman Chemical Company (EMN) operates as specialty materials company globally. It serves transportation, personal care, wellness, food, feed, agriculture, building & construction, water treatment, energy, consumables, durables & electronic markets. It is based in Kingsport, Tennessee, comes under Basic Materials sector & trades as “EMN” ticker at NYSE.

EMN made low of $34.44 on 3/18/2020 during global selloff in early 2020. Thereafter, it confirmed higher high sequence & made ATH at $130.47 in weekly time frame. Currently, it favors proposed flat correction in II before upside resumes.

EMN - Elliott Wave Latest Daily View:​

​

It started impulse sequence from 3/18/2020 low & placed ((1)) at $64.19 on 5/01/2020. Below there, it favored ended ((2)) at $57.30 low as shallow correction. While above there, it placed ((3)) at $119.01 high on 3/11/2021 as third wave extension. ((4)) correction finished at $106.11 low on 3/23/2021 as 0.236 retracement against ((3)). While above there, it favored ended ((5)) at $130.47 high on 6/01/2021 as I red impulse & currently, favors II flat correction against March-2020 low.

Below $130.47 high, it placed ((A)) at $98.24 low & proposed ended ((B)) at $129.47 high on 1/19/2022 high. While below there, it favors ((C)) correction within II & confirms only when it breaks below ((A)) low. It favored ended (2) of ((C)) at $124.85 high & below there, it favors (3) lower & expect to extend towards $97.20 - $77.20 area before upside resumes or at least 3 swing bounce.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/emn-expect-ii-correction-before-next-rally/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Last week, we have been calling out a short based blue box zone on BA which was triggered successfully for our clients to get their landing gear ready and go short!

H4 chart – 17th March 2022​

As you can see here that on a bigger picture we are playing within wave (C) to the downside in a zig zag corrective pattern. Zigzags usually unfold to the downside in a 5-3-5 sequence, therefore Wave (C) would present a 5 wave sequence.

We were not able to catch the whole of wave (C) but we did manage to go short on wave 5. Within wave (C) wave 4 was developing as a zigzag pattern as well and we draw a blue box zone between 192.40 – 204.58. This is based on equality of wave ((a)) of 4 to 1.618 against wave ((c)).

H4 Chart – 21st March 2022​

So, what happened? Well as expected, wave ((c)) matured near enough exact around our equal leg zone of wave ((a)). This unfolded to the downside to complete wave (i) of ((a)) of 5. Currently, we are risk free as we have taken 50% of the profit, therefore, anything happens now, we are not at risk anymore. This is the beauty behind our strategy, its conservative, safe and we tend to go risk free early on without disturbing our analysis.

So what are expecting next? Well, this will continue to unfold to the downside until it completes wave (C) corrective cycle, as long as price does not breach the extreme of wave (B).

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliottwave/ba-landing-gear-ready-go-short-blue-box-zone/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Indonesia Energy Corp stock has experienced a breathtaking rally since the lows set in January 2022. There are a few small companies that are making big moves with the swing in Crude Oil (like $IMPP which I covered here recently). But is this massive move meant to last? Today I’ll take a look at Indonesian Energy Corp and see what the technical analysis speaks. Lets take a look at their company profile:

"Indonesia Energy Corp is an independent energy company in the oil and gas business with operations primarily in Indonesia.

Our strategy is to build an oil and gas assets portfolio with an optimum mix between medium-sized producing blocks and exploration blocks with significant potential resources.

Indonesia Energy producing asset, Kruh Block, located in Pendopo, is a stable and positive cashflow generating oil asset. Our exploration play, Citarum Block, located in the most populated province in Indonesia, only 16 miles south of the capital city of Indonesia, Jakarta, is a de-risked asset with proven presence of hydrocarbons that offers an immense growth opportunity and downstream integration possibilities.

We are also conducting a joint study program to acquire an area that we believe to hold large amounts of crude oil due to its proven petroleum system and location on the Northwest Java basin, the Rangkas Area."

This is a highly speculative Jr. oil explorer play, lets take a look at the charts:

Indonesia Energy Corp Elliottwave View:​

Medium term term view from the low set Jan 26 @ 2.46. This stock rallied off that low in a leading diagonal for ((1)), and a pullback in ((2)). After that, a very impulsive rally took prices to a peak of 86.99 where Red I is set. From there, the stock sharply dropped as profit taking took place. The pullback in Red II took shape as an ABC from the peak. Red II is favoured set on 3/15 at 21.35. After that, a rally has taken place in (1). And now, a pullback in (2) is underway as long as the 3.15 low remains intact.

In conclusion, the next leg higher is favoured to be underway. As long as Red II low holds. If that low gets invalided, then the stock can grind even lower before resuming higher.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/indonesia-energy-corp-indo-ready-next-leg-higher/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

There are several different momentum indicators. One of the popular ones is the RSI (Relative Strength Index) which was developed in 1978 by J. Welles Wilder. The RSI is in the form of an oscillator from 0 to 100. Traditional interpretation suggests RSI of 70 or above signifies overbought condition. Meanwhile, RSI of 30 or below indicates oversold condition. Elliott Wave Theory on the other hand is a different form of technical analysis which was developed much earlier than RSI in 1930s by Ralph Nelson Elliott. It looks at the price patterns and structures to identify investor sentiment and psychology and forecast the future path. The theory identifies 5 waves impulse which sets up the trend. Corrective waves that oppose the larger trend on the other hand develop in 3 waves. Since Elliott Wave Theory is older than the RSI, there is no linkage between the two different methods in the original usage.

As one of the leading service providers, Elliott Wave Forecast (EWF) finds a different way to use RSI with Elliott Wave. We don't use it to identify overbought or oversold condition. These are the guidelines we use on RSI at EWF and how they will have different conclusion to the traditional understanding:

• Wave 3 in Elliott Wave Theory typically is the strongest wave. In a bullish market, RSI of wave 3 often continues to stay at an overbought region (>70). A traditional understanding of RSI suggests if RSI is over 70, it is overbought and thus traders might sell it. However, we do not recommend selling wave 3. In fact, an extended period of RSI above 70 signals that the trend is in that direction and thus it's better to buy the dips rather than trying to pick the top and sell.
• Wave 5 in Elliott Wave Theory typically comes with momentum divergence. In a bullish market, this means price makes a higher high while momentum (RSI) makes a lower high. With the traditional understanding, momentum divergence suggests it's bearish and instrument can selloff. In our view however, a momentum divergence in an uptrend suggests the prevailing trend is bullish as divergence occurs in wave 5 and a 5 waves structure defines the trend's direction. Thus, even though instrument can do 3 waves pullback after the end of wave 5, if the prevailing trend is bullish, it's better to buy the dips rather than picking the top and selling wave 5.
• A divergence also happens in the fifth swing of a 7 swing structure. A 7 swing structure is called a double correction or WXY. Sometimes people call it a double zigzag if the internal of wave W and Y happen to be both a zigzag. In a 7 swing double three structure, the fifth swing should come with a divergence like the graph below shows:

Double Three Structure​

As the graph above shows, when the structure forms a 5 swing lower, swing #5 should come with momentum divergence. In other words, at that point, price makes lower low, but RSI makes a higher low. In the traditional interpretation, a momentum divergence like this signals it's bullish. Even though it's partially true that we expect instrument to rally in swing #6, but the fact there's a divergence in swing #5 suggests the prevailing trend is not complete yet to the downside. Thus instead of trying to buy the divergence, it'll be better to sell the rally as the prevailing trend in this case is to the downside to end 7 swing structure. Every corrective structure, whether it's a 3 swing ABC, or 7 swing WXY, per guideline, normally ends without a divergence.

At EWF, we use RSI divergence to check if instrument is in wave 5. We also use it to check if the structure is an incomplete 7 swing structure. For example, if an instrument erases divergence, then that can lead us to switch the count and no longer calling it to be wave 5. An instrument in this case can be still in wave 3 with extended wave 3 or a nest. These are just some of the ways we use RSI with Elliott Wave.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliottwave/how-momentum-indicator-is-used-with-elliott-wave/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of GBPUSD. As our members know, the pair shows bearish sequences in the cycle from the June 1st 2021 peak. Incomplete structure calls for a further decline. The pair has made 3 waves bounce recently, that has reached our selling zone. We recommended members to avoid buying and keep selling rallies in 3,7,11 swings. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Forecast and the trading strategy.

GBPUSD H1 Elliott Wave Analysis 03.22.2022​

GBPUSD is correcting the cycle from the February 18th peak. Recovery shows incomplete sequences at the moment. Consequently we are calling for upside in near term toward 1.3298-1.3348 area to complete 2 red recovery. Although expecting more upside we recommended members to avoid buying the pair in proposed push up. Strategy is waiting for Blue Box to be reached before selling the pair. As the main trend is bearish we expect sellers to appear at the blue box for 3 waves pull back at least. Once pull back reaches 50 Fibs against the ((x)) black low, we will make short position risk free ( put SL at BE) and take partial profits. Invalidation for the trade would be break above 1.618 fibs extension: 1.3436

As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a reaction.

Reminder: You can learn about Elliott Wave Rules and Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

GBPUSD H1 Elliott Wave Analysis 03.24.2022​

The pair reached equal legs area at 1.3298 and made turn lower from there. We got a decent reaction from the blue box. As a result , members who took short trades made positions risk free ( Put SL at BE) and took partial profits. At this stage we see wave 2 red completed at the current high 1.3300. Decline from the peak looks like 5 waves, which increases chances of further extension down. The price needs to hold below 1.3300 peak for this view to be in place. Break of 1 red low -03/15 is needed to confirm next leg down is in progress.

Keep in mind market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences.We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room.




Elliott Wave Forecast
Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/trading/gbpusd-selling-rallies-blue-box/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Hello fellow traders. In this technical blog we’re going to take a quick look at the Elliott Wave charts of GOLD, published in members area of the website. As our members know, we’ve been favoring the long side in the commodity. Recently GOLD ( $XAUUSD ) made a pull back that has had a form of Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern. We expected GOLD to find buyers at the extreme zone from the 03/08 peak. In the further text we are going to explain the Elliott Wave Pattern and trading strategy.

Before we take a look at the real market example, let’s explain Elliott Wave Zigzag.

Elliott Wave Zigzag is the most popular corrective pattern in Elliott Wave theory . It’s made of 3 swings which have 5-3-5 inner structure. Inner swings are labeled as A,B,C where A =5 waves, B=3 waves and C=5 waves. That means A and C can be either impulsive waves or diagonals. (Leading Diagonal in case of wave A or Ending in case of wave C) . Waves A and C must meet all conditions of being 5 wave structure, such as: having RSI divergency between wave subdivisions, ideal Fibonacci extensions and ideal retracements.

At the chart below we can see what Elliott Wave Zig Zag pattern looks like in real market.

GOLD H1 Elliott Wave Analysis 03.16.2022​

GOLD is correcting the cycle from the 1779.3 low. Recovery has reached the extremes from the peak at 1910.57, however pull back doesn't look completed yet. We assume pull back is unfolding as Elliott Wave Zig Zag Pattern. That means both A and C leg has to have a form of 5 waves structure. We can count clear 5 waves down in A red leg. On other hand C red still missing another low to have clear 5 waves form. Consequently we are calling for another marginal push lower within blue box. Anyway, we don't recommend selling. We favor the long side from the marked blue box zone :1910.5-1848.1. As the main trend is bullish we expect buyers to appear at the blue box for 3 waves bounce at least. Once bounce reaches 50 Fibs against the B red high, we will make long position risk free ( put SL at BE) and take partial profits. Invalidation for the trade would be break below 1.618 fibs extension: 1848.1

As our members know Blue Boxes are no enemy areas , giving us 85% chance to get a pull back.

Reminder : You can learn more about Zig Zag and other Elliott Wave Patterns at our Free Elliott Wave Educational Web Page.

GOLD H1 Elliott Wave Analysis 03.25.2022​

The commodity made another wave down within blue box area, complete clear 5 waves in C red leg and found buyers as we expected. We got nice reaction from the blue box, which reached and exceeded 50 fibs against the B connector, so any long trades from the blue box should be risk free at this stage+ partial profit taken. Current view suggests we still can get another leg down within cycle from the peak. (X) blue recovery can complete at 1965.69-1999.65 area. However, don't recommend selling the commodity against the main bullish trend. Alternatively if 2070.87 pivot gives up, it will denied current view and we will call pull back completed. Right side is the long side and GOLD remains buy in the dips.

Keep in mind that market is dynamic and presented view could have changed in the mean time. You can check most recent updates in the membership area of the website. Remember that not every chart is trading recommendation. Best instruments to trade are those having incomplete bullish or bearish swings sequences. We put them in Sequence Report and best among them are shown in the Live Trading Room. You can check most recent charts in the membership area of the site.



Elliott Wave Forecast
Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/elliottwave/gold-xauusd-elliott-wave-zig-zag/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

In this article, we will look at the decline in LTCUSD from $132 to $90 which took almost a week to unfold. We will look at some Elliott wave charts presented to members and show how our members were prepared for this decline in Litecoin. We called a zigzag Elliott wave correction completed in Litecoin (LTCUSD) at $143.93 and called for the decline to resume. Let's take a look at the chart from February 16, 2022 to begin with.

LTCUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis - 16 February, 2022​

Chart below shows wave (( i )) and (( ii )) completed and we expected the decline to resume in wave (( iii )) as far as prices stayed below wave (( ii )) high and more importantly below $143.93 high.

​

LTCUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis - 20 February, 2022​

Chart below shows decline resumed as expected and wave (( iii )) is nearing completion after which we expected a bounce in wave (( iv )) and another leg down to complete 5 waves decline from $143.93 high.

LTCUSD 1 Hour Elliott Wave Analysis - 27 February, 2022​

Chart below shows Impulsive decline from wave (B) $143.93 high completed at $91.94 and as dips stay above this level, expect prices to extend higher to complete wave 2 before a turn lower again.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/litecoin-ltcusd-forecasting-the-decline-using-elliott-wave/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Adient Plc (ADNT) designs, develops, manufactures & markets a wide range of seating systems & components for passenger cars, commercial vehicles & light trucks & serves globally. The company is based in Dublin, Ireland. It comes under Consumer Cyclicals sector as Auto Parts Industry & trades under "ADNT" ticker at NYSE.

Since October-2016, ADNT made an ATH at $86.42 & ATL at $5.90 during global market sell-off in early 2020. Thereafter, it favored ended impulse cycle at 6/04/2021 high against the cycle started from 3/18/2020 low. While below there, it started correcting lower in proposed zigzag correction.

ADNT - Elliott Wave Latest Daily View:​

​

During global sell off in early 2020, it made $5.90 as ATL on 3/18/2020. Above there, it favored ended ((1)) at $22.57 high on 6/08/2020 & placed ((2)) at $15.00 low on 8/07/2020 low. ((2)) was shallow correction slightly past below 0.382 of ((1)). While above ((2)) low, it favored ended ((3)) at $38.26 high on 1/07/2021 & placed ((4)) at $30.47 low on 1/27/2021. The final leg ((5)) was ending diagonal & favored ended at $53.16 high on 6/04/2021 as I red impulse. Below there, it favors II correction in proposed zigzag structure.

Below $53.16 high, it started correcting lower against the cycle from March-2020 low. It favored ended ((A)) at $34.56 low on 8/05/2021 & proposed ended ((B)) as double correction at $50.96 high on 1/13/2022. While below $50.96 high, it placed (3) at $30.53 low & currently favoring (4) correction, before it starts (5) of ((C)) lower to end II correction between 32.43 - 20.94 area before it resumes next leg higher. Alternatively, it might ended II as double correction at $30.53 low & can see more upside, while dips remain above that level. III red will confirm, when it breaks above I red high of $53.16.

ADNT - Alternate Elliott Wave View:​

​

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/adnt-pullback-before-resume-rally/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) is the index of all common stocks traded on the Korea Exchange. It is the representative stock market index of South Korea, like the S&P 500 in the United States.

KOSPI Daily Chart March 2022​

Since March 2020 low, KOSPI began to develop and impulse structure as we can see in the chart. Wave ((1)) ended at 2458.17 and a zig zag correction completed wave ((2)) at 2266.93. Then rally continued finishing wave ((3)) at 3266.23 and a double correction ended wave ((4)) at 2929.36. The last swing built an ending diagonal structure reaching 3316.08 to complete wave ((5)) and wave I. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory, follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory).

In the last days of June 2021, KOSPI began a pullback and this should be a deep one to correct the whole cycle from March 2020. We can count down from the peak 7 swings to build a double correction as wave ((W)) ending at 2822.76. A pullback rally ended the connector wave ((X)) at 3043.83 and continue lower. Currently, we need 3 swings more down to complete wave ((Y)) and wave II. Wave (A) has already finished at 2591.53 and we are developing wave (B). After wave (B) is done, market should break 2592.53 level to confirm wave (C) is under way. KOSPI should look for the blue box in 2545.85 - 2238.05 area to end the whole pullback of March 2020 and wave II to continue with the rally.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/south-korean-index-kospi-near-support/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The last time I covered Chevron was back in November 2021. And I was expecting a larger cycle to complete before pulling back against March 2020 low. Lets take a look at the view I was presenting back then and compare to what the market gave us.

Chevron Elliottwave View November 2021:​

At the time, with the evidence the market was presenting, the wave count was still looking for more upside. Black ((5)) was favoured to be underway, and Red I would peak, with a pullback in Red II Against the March 2020 low. The Energy Sector has been bullish ever since the March 2020 low was struck. And the momentum continues to favour the upside. Lets take a look at the current analysis the market is presenting.=

Chevron Elliottwave View March 2022:​

Since the August 2021 low, The market was nesting for higher extension, rather than preparing to pullback. We have been warning members all year to avoid getting bearish on the commodities sector, especially the energy sector. After (2) was set, the market broke higher in momentum into a wave 3 of 3. The peak in momementum came at the (5) of ((3)) peak on March 10th. After that, a pullback has taken place in ((4)). Right now, further extension higher is still favoured to take place within ((5)) of Red III. The next area on the upside where another pullback in IV can take place is the 179.55 to 187.03 area. We do not like to sell it, we prefer to look for pullbacks in 3, 7 or 11 swing to blue boxes where buyers can enter for a bounce in 3 swing at least.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/chevron-corp-cvx-continues-move-higher/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Sandbox is an Ethereum-based decentralised NFT gaming metaverse that enables non-tech based users to create, sell, use, and monetise their own virtual reality NFTs. The crypto metaverse uses its native token SAND to underpin the entirety of the in-game economy.

SAND/USD Daily Chart – 1st April 2022​

We completed our first impulse cycle when the price reached it’s maturity of $8.49 around November 2021. Ever since then is has been very sloppy and choppy, this is all correction prior to the next advance.

Non Elliott Wave theorist have been misle on when SAND will continue to. Especially the move we witnessed between 22nd January 2022 to 9th February 2022. But as you can see this was a 3-wave sequence, therefore still within the corrective cycle.

Now, according to my count, we are playing within the ((Y)) to complete the double correction.

Until I see a 5-wave sequence to the upside, I am convinced we will be within this corrective and a good chance we may see another push to the down to at least $1. This would then complete the double correction, wave ((Y)).

Long term future​

There are speculations that the token can reach around $12 this year and by 2026 it can reach all the way to $28. The reasons behind this is because the game is very similar to Minecraft, therefore, a lot of players from Minecraft may switch over to Sandbox.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/cryptos/sand-usd-future-sandbox/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Polygon (formerly Matic Network, MATICUSD) is a Layer 2 scaling solution backed by Binance and Coinbase. The project seeks to stimulate mass adoption of cryptocurrencies by resolving the problems of scalability on many blockchains. Polygon combines the Plasma Framework and the proof-of-stake blockchain architecture.

MATICUSD January Daily Chart​

MATICUSD started a rally from July 20th 2021 low. From there we can see 5 waves up forming a Leading Diagonal Structure ending on December 27th. (If you want to learn more about Elliott Wave Theory, please follow these links: Elliott Wave Education and Elliott Wave Theory). Wave ((1)) ended an impulse structure at 1.7991. Then MATICUSD corrected in 3 swings making a zig zag structure, ending wave ((2)) at 1.0148. Another rally resumed from the low completing wave ((3)) at 2.2200. Pullback again making a flat correction ended wave ((4)) at 1.4446. Then last push higher made an ending diagonal structure as wave ((5)) completing wave I as a leading diagonal at 2.9249.

MATICUSD April Daily Chart​

From the peak, we were expecting 7 swings down correction to 1.1660 – 1.5016 area and rally again, but MATICUSD just made it in 3 swings. This (A), (B) and (C) ended at 1.3073 forming wave ((W)). Then market bounce in another zig zag correction and finished the connector ((X)) at 2.0977. We need 3 more swings down to complete the double correction from the peak. Wave (A) is done at 1.2460. A flat correction as wave (B) could be done already or need a slightly high to end and see further downside in wave (C). Anyway, we are looking for more downside in the crypto to break 1.2460 with an impulse structure. Target to complete wave (C) of ((Y)) and the double correction as II comes in 0.6969 - 0.9487 area. Reaching this area is a perfect place to look for buying opportunities to continue the rally to break 2.9249.

Elliottwave Forecast updates one-hour charts 4 times a day and 4-hour charts once a day for all our 78 instruments. We do a daily live session where we guide our clients on the right side of the market. In addition, we have a chat room where our moderators will help you with any questions you have about what is happening in the market.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/polygon-maticusd-double-correction-way/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Covestro AG (formerly, Bayer MaterialScience) is a German company which produces a variety of polycarbonate and polyurethane based raw materials. The products include coatings and adhesives, polyurethanes for thermal insulation and electrical housings, polycarbonate based highly impact-resistant plastics (Makrolon) and more. Formed in 2015 as a spin off from Bayer, Covestro is headquartered in Leverkusen, Germany. As a part of DAX40 index, one can trade it under the ticker $1COV at Frankfurt Stock Exchange. In the initial Article from June 2021, we have forecasted a pullback to happen. Thereafter, a new cycle higher should continue the uptrend. Here, we present un update discussing an opportunity of buying a pullback.

Covestro Weekly Elliott Wave Analysis 04.03.2022​

The weekly chart below shows the Covestro stock $1COV traded at XETRA. From the IPO lows in October 2015, the stock price has developed a cycle higher in blue wave (I) of super cycle degree towards the all-time highs on January 2018 at 95.78. From the highs, a correction lower in blue wave (II) has unfolded as an Elliott wave double three pattern. It has printed an important bottom on March 2010 at 23.54.

From March 2010 lows, a new cycle in wave (III) has already started and should extend towards 95.78 highs and even higher.

​

Covestro Daily Elliott Wave Analysis 04.03.2022​

The daily chart below shows in more detail the first stages of the advance higher in blue wave (III). From the March 2020 lows, red wave I has developed an impulse higher towards March 2021 highs at 63.24. Within wave I, there are 5 black subwaves ((1))-((5)). Hereby, the wave ((5)) shows an extension.

From the March 2021 highs, a correction lower in wave II is demonstrating a larger double three pattern. First, the black wave ((W)) has ended on the 30th of November 2021. In itself, wave ((W)) is a smaller degree double three structure. Then, a bounce in connector wave ((X)) has ended on January the 5th, 2022. While below the peak at 58, the wave ((Y)) has been expected to reach lower into 43.97-35.27 area. As a matter of fact, it has reached it already. We are calling the correction in wave ((Y)) of II completed on 7th of March. From the 39.50 lows, a new cycle in wave ((1)) of III might have started. Currently, pullback in wave (2) should correct part of the rise within wave (1) and find support above 39.50 lows in 3, 7, 11 swings.

Investors and traders can buy wave (2) from 43.97-39.50 area. The target for wave III will be the 79.18-103.69 area and even beyond.



Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/buying-covestro-pullback/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

The U.S. and its allies have administered economic and financial sanction to Russia as a result of the invasion to Ukraine. As part of this comprehensive sanction, US and its allies barred some of Russia's banks from the SWIFT international payment system. Moreover, the Western countries have frozen most of $630 billion Russian Central Bank's Forex reserves. French Foreign Minister said the measures aim at asphyxiating Russia's economy. However, the entire idea of money as a universal store of value risks being eroded with this move. If currency is essentially worthless and can be taken away easily, Moscow and other non-US aligned countries would stop accumulating them. Instead, they will accumulate outside money in the form of oil barrels, gold, and other commodities.

In retaliation, Moscow has implemented two things. First, they now demand the sale of natural gas to unfriendly countries in the form of Ruble. Thus, if the U.S. and its allies want to buy natural gas from Russia now, they must pay in Ruble. Second, Moscow offers to buy Gold domestically at a fixed price of 5000 rubles per gram. The Bank of Russia therefore has linked Ruble to Gold. Since Gold also trades in US Dollars, this effectively sets a floor price for the ruble in terms of US Dollars.

Since the time that Bank of Russia made this fixed price announcement, the ruble has strengthened from 100 to the pre-war level around 80 to the US Dollar. We can do the simple calculation. Gold is currently trading at $1923 / troy ounce which is around $62 / gram. With Bank of Russia pegging 5000 rubles to 1 gram of Gold, this suggests a USD/RUB rate of 5000/62 = 80.5. If the rate deviates from this too much, market and arbitrage traders will get into action to drive the exchange rate and/or Gold price.

So Gold's price in a way will put a floor to the ruble. But similarly, Ruble will also put a floor to Gold. 5000 rubles / gram with an exchange rate of USDRUB of 80.5 means a gold price around $1930/ troy ounce. One can make a case that Ruble may actually strengthen further. The reason is because as Russia demands unfriendly countries to pay with Ruble for its commodities purchase, demand for Ruble can increase. Let's take a look at the USDRUB chart below:

USDRUB Daily Elliott Wave​

USDRUB has dropped back from the 154 level at the height of the war to the 80s pre-war level. If we count the decline from March 7 peak as a simple zigzag (A)-(B)-(C), this will suggest wave (C) can go to reach 35-49 area where wave (C) = 100% - 123.6% of wave (A). If this count is correct, then we can calculate the price target for Gold. With a fixed rate of 5000 ruble / gram, a 49 USD/RUB rate suggest USD $102 / gram of Gold or around USD $3170 / troy ounce Gold.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/forex/ruble-might-potentially-put-floor-gold/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Long Term Cycles & Elliott Wave for $QQQ

Firstly the QQQ instrument inception date was in March 1999. That was before it ended a larger cycle up from the all time lows in March 2000. The ETF instrument mirrors the price movement of the Nasdaq index.

As shown below from the March 2000 highs the instrument had a steep correction lower in three swings to the October 2002 lows. From there to the October 2007 highs it ended the first of the current series of Elliott wave impulses in the black color ((1)). This makes up the subdivisions of the wave ((5)) of the red I that ended on in August 2018. The correction of the cycle up from the October 2002 lows ended the red wave II in December 2018. The pullback into the December 2018 lows was strong in momentum but relatively speaking not so much in price. It suggested it had corrected the whole cycle from the October 2002 low.

The analysis continues below the monthly chart.



Secondly as previously suggested the QQQ instrument mirrors the Nasdaq index cycle highs & cycle lows. As known, impulses progress in 5-9-13-17 swings. Corrections against the trend proceed in 3-7 or 11 swings. So far the bounce from the December 2018 lows appears to be three, larger degree five wave impulse sequences still ongoing. This leaves an incomplete sequence higher.

In conclusion the instrument is bullish most immediately while above the 317.45 lows from March 2022. While above there the instrument should trade higher toward the 455.00 area in wave ((5)). Once that high is established it may see a relatively shallow .236 to .382 Fibonacci retracement of the wave III cycle in wave IV before turning higher again in wave V of (III).

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/long-term-cycles-elliott-wave-for-qqq/

 

[Elliottwave-Forecast]

Elliott Wave Analysis and Long Term Cycles of $FXA

The FXA ETF fund is the Australian dollar tracking fund that has an inception Date of 06/21/2006. With that said the fund mainly reflects the currency spot price of the AUDUSD pair. The data available from the Reserve Bank of Australia at their website suggests the spot price was 1.4875 back in 1973 to 1974 translates into an FXA price of around 148.75. The cycle analysis suggests a larger pullback cycle ended in March 2020.

Back before the FXA fund inception date, the AUDUSD spot currency price reached what is still the currency low in April 2001 at .4778. From there the currency pair went up in what appears to be a lead diagonal until July 2011 at a high of 1.1080. That translates into the FXA ETF fund price high of 110.99 in July 2011. This is where the monthly Elliott wave analysis begins on the chart below.

The analysis continues below the monthly chart.



Secondly the decline from the aforementioned July 2011 highs does not seem legitimately able to count the whole cycle from there down to the January 2016 lows as a regular impulse by itself as a whole. The cycle lower in the red wave w has been subdivided as an ((A))-((B))-((C)) in black. The instrument has since then bounced in three swings. Further, this appeared to be a zig zag Elliott wave x in red that ended in January 2018.

Thirdly and in conclusion, since the wave x highs from January 2018 the instrument has declined in another Elliott Wave double three structure into the March 2020 lows. There it appears ended a larger pullback cycle. Lastly, from there it now appears the pair has finished an impulse wave I at the February 2021 highs. While a bounce fails below there it can see another swing lower. This should reach toward 65 to 60 to correct the cycle up from the March 2020 lows. While the pullback remains above there it should trend higher again.

Source: https://elliottwave-forecast.com/stock-market/elliott-wave-analysis-and-long-term-cycles-of-fxa/