EUR/USD Analysis

[Traders-Live]

EUR/USD
Update 29 October: Back up to the 1.3950 level yesterday and no respite to the range trading which has dominated this month. We continue to look to sell the euro into rallies whilst below 1.4050, and we are short already from 1.3930, just below the 61.8% Fibonacci at 1.3950. Let’s see how this one works out. If not, we’ll look to sell again higher up near 1.4000/50. It’s been a difficult second part of this week, and as it’s the last Friday of the month, things can get worse, so be careful!
Summary: Try small counter-trend longs around 1.3800/3780. Exit longs and wait for a signal to sell at resistance levels listed above.

 

[Traders-Live]

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3734
Key G7 support levels: 1.3950, 1.3870, 1.3830/00
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.4050
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.
Today's trade suggestion: Another “flip flop” week, stuck in the range between 1.4100 and 1.3700. The weekly chart is just about bulling, but the doji candle suggests we could go either way this week, just like the past two. Key support levels are listed above. Key resistance levels lie at 1.4000 (the 786 ib) and 1.4080 (the range top) We will consider trading in either direction this week, as long as we remain below 1.4100. Look for opportunities to buy and sell after a clear G7 reversal signal. Don’t be tempted to pick a direction and commit to it, being especially careful to stick to stops!
Update 3 November: Back up to the top of the range and trading inside a newly formed hourly channel (see chart) Frankly this is getting boring, so be prepared for a big move when traders become complacent. We are short from the 1.4050 area
(range top, 786 Fib and channel top) after a G7 signal, and we’ll have to see how it plays out. Be alert for opportunities in either direction.
Summary: Continue to trade the range: Look to sell into rallies to 1.4000 or 1.4080, or buy into dips to supports between 1.3950 and 1.3830.

 

[Traders-Live]

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bearish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.4085
Key G7 resistance levels: 1.3580, 1.3620/50, 1.3710, 1.3760/80
Counter-trend and scalping opportunities:
Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.
Today’s trade suggestion: The euro’s fortunes have reversed quite dramatically, and we have a very bearish pattern on all chart time frames. We’ll look to sell the euro into resistance levels after pullbacks. This is not a good time to be picking bottoms and trading counter-trend. There are very few clear support levels below us and we have just broken below major range support.
Update 17 November: General dollar strength has sent currencies crashing lower as expected, and the euro has major support at 1.3450. We continue to look to sell into rallies, with resistance levels overhead starting at 1.3580 (previous support and the 38% Fibonacci of the latest swing.
Summary: Sell rallies to resistance levels listed above after a G7 entry signal.

 

[Traders-Live]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ljq9HQGj7ic"]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ljq9HQGj7ic[/ame]

 

[Traders-Live]

Today's report is in a pdf format, enjoy...

http://thetradersmindset.s3.amazonaws.com/videos/traderslive/Daily Report 13th Dec.pdf

 

[Traders-Live]

Hi Guys, before I share my thoughts with you I would like to take this opportunity to sincerely wish you a brilliant 2011.

Just remember this!

We cannot control the outcome of everything that happens to us, but we sure can control our attitude, and thereby, our actual 'moods and emotions', which indirectly, affect and influence the 'experience' we gain in the end.

So take control of the 2011 experience right now!

It looks like 2011 may be another difficult year, but start ahead of the game by accepting that you can only control the manner in which you choose to tackle the year ahead, and no more. So stop stressing about matters that you have no control over.
However, 2011 may well surprise you, and turn out to be the best year ever - there is always this reality - so accept that as a possibility, and ensure you do whatever it takes to maximise whatever opportunities come your way this year.

So,
What New Idea's do I have lined up for you?

Well at this stage I have quite a few, and I will work through them over the next week or two and share the outcome with you. For now though, I have this idea.

I get so many emails every day from traders needing help. I spend a lot of time and effort in writing back and doing what I can to assist them. The reality is though that the questions they pose to me are probably the same ones running through your head as well.

So I am going to begin posting some of these emails and I would appreciate your feedback please.

So let me know what you think so I can make the right decision and not add to your clutter but hopefully add to your experience instead.

All the best,
Chris.
P.S. I will post the first email as a tester later today.

 

[Traders-Live]

Ok as I indicated yesterday I want to try this for a while and see how it goes. Some questions may be pertinent to you at the time others perhaps not. We can always do with a reminder though from time to time

“Hi Chris

Writing to you in desperation! I generally follow James’ G7 system, so entry points have become very clear to me. The part that I’m battling with is when to exit a trade. I’ve had so many instances when I have held on to a trade only to find it turn on me and worst case scenario hit my SL. So now I’m afraid to stay in trades. I always seems to get out of beautiful big winning trades (in hindsight of course!) way too early!

I understand aiming for fibs/ S/R lines etc but still battle to stay in trades and let price go to these areas. As soon as I think the trade is looking dodgy I close it for a small profit only to kick myself later when I see I could have attained 100+ pips. I always trade with a SL and I always set a reasonable and logical TP. How do I know when to let the trade run to TP and when to bail? Another thing……….do you only ever manually close your trades/check your trades at the top of the hour? How do you manage your trades? Please help!!

Trader C.”

My reply was…

Hi C, you must not beat yourself up to much. If you watch James in the charter group, he does this himself all the time – BUT – you don’t notice because he doesn’t mention it. The reason is that, as with predicting anything, one cannot predict an exit anymore then you can predict any other aspect of trading. So, you have to learn to take what you get, as long as you have done your best to figure out the best possible and most logical exit areas, and aimed for those, then there is simply nothing else to do. Whatever ‘actually’ happens during the trade then is not your doing and therefore nothing that you need stress about.

James for example, is comfortable with his trading and understands these variables better then most – so he takes what he gets and moves on – he doesn’t waste any energy on “what if” scenarios.

There are various options available, but it sounds as if you are familiar with most so I won’t go into them, but purely for a reference point think of some of these scenarios and I bet that you can identify with them all.

If you were to use a trailing stop for example – you will find that quite often you are just stopped out by just a few pips by a slightly bigger retrace then normal, and the price does then eventually hit your profit target. If you wait for a retrace and hide behind the next low, then you can quite often find the market actually reverse and you are way down on profit before you realise that maybe that was a reversal candle and so perhaps you should have gotten out at the top near that resistance area. Quite often it simply does not get to the next level at all. More often then not, it does though, and so just take the ones you get and move on from those that you don’t get.

Can you see the conflict? It really is not a science at all. You need to try the various options available to you and then monitor which gives you better results, knowing full well that at times, another strategy might have given more. You need to find the exit strategy that you are most comfortable with and simply stick to that. Or, if you are experienced enough, then depending on the market conditions, you may want to use a different strategy at times under different market conditions. The last point though is not advisable unless you are experienced and quite comfortable with the outcome. If you attempt this too early in your trading career then once again you will find yourself questioning whether that was the right decision at the time – as you are doing now.

Rules are rules and variables are variables – just remember this. There is nothing wrong with placing a 20 pip stop loss today and a 50 pip tomorrow. As long as you have applied your rules of the stop being within the same ‘risk parameters’…in other words if you need a larger stop then adjust your number of lots traded so that you are within the same risk exposure parameters as laid out in your rules…but the variables of actual ‘size of stops’ – that is always dependent on market conditions (last obvious low etc).

I hope that this enables you to start accepting the inevitable – that you cannot be right all the time – and that you cannot control the outcome – ever!

Just learn to go with the flow more this year – accept the outcome and move on – take the good ones and along with those – learn to take the bad ones as well ;-)

Cheers,

Chris.

P.S. Remember the basic rules of exiting a trade…

1. Firstly, an effective initial stop should be place where you don’t expect the market to go (behind the last low etc) and if it does, then the premise of the trade is over and you should rather exit the trade with a small predetermined loss.
2. Never move stops once in a trade to attempt to stay in a trade longer…once past your initial stop, then market conditions have now changed to a point where your original analysis now no longer applies, hence, neither do your original trade parameters.
3. Next a decent exit strategy is required to ensure that you do not react emotionally to a trade once you are in it. That is why they are critical to determine before you actually enter your trade. Their main aim is to strike a balance between protecting open profits as much as possible and to prevent you from exiting the trade too soon (normally an emotional decision at the time). Which exit strategy you decide to use will depend on your actual trading system.

 

[bingates]

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction: Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2732

Key G7 support levels: 1.2900, 1.2850, 1.2780/2800, 1.2720

Counter-trend and scalping opportunities: 1.2980 – 1.3050

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:
Little has changed since last week, as the Euro has been in a broad sideways range for much of the last week. Support levels are listed above and we’ll continue to

look to buy the Euro into dips, with an unchanged strategy. There is a word of caution: It is very possible that we’ll retrace and correct back to the weekly

downward trend line, which now acts as a support. Today, this lies at roughly 1.2520, which is below the weekly reversal level. As bullish momentum has slowed

somewhat and the danger of a consolidation/correction is increasing, we’ll allow for some careful trend and counter-trend trading if the opportunity arises. Watch

for potential topping at 1.2980/1.3000

Update: Very little change, as the euro popped its head up briefly above 1.3000, and then back to the range. We’ll have to wait and see if we get another rally from

here. The strategy remains unchanged, apart from small adjustments to the support levels above. Probably best to focus on trading in the direction of the bullish

trend today.

Summary: Buy dips to support levels listed above after a clear G7 entry signal, allowing for a retracement as far as 1.2630. First target 1.3000 and then 1.3120.

EUR/USD Hourly chart:

Hi,
please could you send me a detailed description of this setup, i'm new and interested in any good scalping techniques...
thanks

 

[Traders-Live]

Jan12th

IMPORTANT: This free report is not an express or implied recommendation, guidance or proposal that any particular Forex analysis or trade is appropriate to the particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any recipient.

EUR/USD

Weekly Trend direction:
Bearish

Weekly trend reversal level: 1.3450

Key G7 resistance levels:
1.3000, 1.3050/80, 1.3150/80, 1.3220, 1.3300

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.

Today's trade suggestion:

After a long decline in the Euro during the holiday weeks, the weekly direction has turned bearish. This means that we are looking to sell the euro into rallies this week, whilst below the weekly reversal level at 1.3450. First resistance is at 1.3000, roughly where the price is currently hovering. However, there are no clear signs of reversal at this stage. Watch and wait over the coming hours. If 1.3000 doesn’t hold, expect the euro to move higher to 1.3050/80 and higher before reversing. As always watch for clear signs of reversal and a G7 entry trigger before selling. First target for short positions is 1.2850.

Summary:

Sell rallies to resistance levels after a clear G7 entry signal. Target 1.2850 and then 1.2700


GBP/USD

Weekly Trend direction:
Bullish

Weekly trend reversal level:
1.5350

Key G7 resistance levels:
1.5540, 1.5500, 1.5460/30, 1.5400/20

Counter-trend opportunities:

Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal

Today's trade suggestion:

Last week, the pound formed an “inside week” in comparison to the previous week. This is viewed as a continuation pattern, which means that we remain bullish. This pair has really made a meal of it over the holiday weeks, with random fluctuations within a large range, making it difficult to identify clear support levels. Nevertheless, we have penciled in several black lines and a Fibonacci analysis and determined rough areas of support which we will be watching this week. Continue to look to buy into dips, but be aware that the chart is messy and potentially misleading. It is possibly better to remain sidelined until we see cleaner patterns and more direction on the chart. Support levels are listed above.

Summary:

Buy dips to support levels after a clear G7 entry signal. Be somewhat sceptical of the pounds intentions this week!

 

[PaulC]

Greetings!

First post in this forum, so... only so few people?

Good start! Hope to learn from the experts here.

Happy trading!

 

[Traders-Live]

EUR/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.2860
Key G7 support levels: 1.3380/3400, 1.3450
Counter-trend opportunities:
Strategy: Whilst below the weekly trend reversal level sell rallies to resistance levels after an entry signal.
Today's trade suggestion:
After a massive whipsaw week (largest for several years), the euro is now technically in bullish mode after a marginal “outside week” last week (lower low and higher high) However, as the high and low were only marginally outside the previous week, and we didn’t get a close beyond either side, this week’s direction is still in the balance, and open to a further whipsaw. This may sound all very confusing, but the bottom line is that we could trade in either direction this week
(whilst inside last week’s range) and that we have to be very aware of possible dramatic reversals in either direction. All that having been said, I’ll be pencilling in support and resistance levels in both directions and looking for potential G7 setups to buy or sell. The hourly chart below shows some of the levels of interest, which I’ll be watching closely as the week
unfolds. Note also the potential hourly “head and shoulders” pattern, which is a potentially bearish sign to start the week off.
Summary:
See above. Be prepared to trade in either direction, being very careful about large whipsaw moves.

GBP/USD
Weekly Trend direction: Bullish
Weekly trend reversal level: 1.5475
Key G7 support levels: 1.5760/80, 1.5700, 1.5640, 1.5580, 1.5500,
Counter-trend opportunities:
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level buy dips to support levels after an entry signal
Today's trade suggestion:
Clearly bullish last week, with a big rally creating a higher high and low. We have been stuck in a tight range at the top of the rally since Thursday, and little has changed. We’ll be waiting for the pound to dip down to the support levels pencilled in on the hourly chart, followed by a G7 trigger to put us into the market. Sterling is a far less complicated picture than the
Euro and the strategy remains simple. Supports are now at 1.5760/80, 1.5700, 1.5640, 1.5580 and 1.5500 with 1.5762 being a potential strong confluence of supports if and when we get there. One word of caution before we become rampaging bulls: The weekly chart shows a potential “head and shoulders” patter, with the resistance line between 1.5800 and 1.6000.
This could put a spanner in the works for greedy buyers! (see weekly chart)
Summary:
Buy dips to support levels after a clear G7 entry signal.

 

[Traders-Live]

The 3 C’s of life: choices, chances and changes.

You must make a choice to take a chance or your life will never change.

Face 2011 with this attitude and you will be fine.

Also remember this…

“If you do what you always done you will get what you always got”

I have taken a hard look at what I have done in the past versus what I plan to do this year and I am really excited for what lays ahead.

I believe that you need to do the same, especially if you have struggled with results of late. You can’t expect to get different results if you keep doing the same thing.

So what choices do you need to make right now?

Here are a few suggestions from my side…

Trade with discipline or don’t bother to trade at all, and leave the emotions at home

The fact is, the unsuccessful trader is most likely using the same indicators and techniques that the successful trader is using. Yet only one of them gets consistent results. So why is this then? The unsuccessful trader, not realising it at the time, is trading those same indicators emotionally and fearfully.

That’s really all there is to it!

The unsuccessful trader doesn’t realise this though, because they are looking in all the wrong places. After all, if they acknowledge this simple reality, then it means that they need ‘fixing’; and it’s a lot easier to fix a combination of indicators on a chart, then to take a hard honest look at themself.

So begin the year by taking a good hard honest look at yourself and your recent trading results.

If you want to achieve different results, then you need to do something differently this year.

Did I mention not to get emotional?

It’s not about YOU. It’s about price movement. Something that you have absolutely no influence or control over, so stop getting all emotional each time you trade. Your only job is to analyse the ‘probability’ then apply a ‘trading strategy’, consistently and with discipline.

Do the job right and you will make money – it really is as simple as that. Do it wrong though – bring your emotions and ego to the party – and you simply have no chance at all.

Trading is a simple numbers game. When you mess with the odds though and don’t let the dice roll out each play, then you simply have no chance of letting the numbers work their magic.

Although most traders will admit that The Traders Mindset is key to winning in the long-term, most believe they can simply ‘handle it’ when things go wrong.

Too late!

The truth is that once emotional, you become irrational, and simply will not make rational decisions – so forget it – prepare properly so you know what to do when required and you do so unemotionally – or be prepared for large losses.

Speaking of losses then…

Take your losses like a ‘man’

Or a wo(man). Seriously though, we need to man up and accept that losses are simply part of the deal – I mean really accept this.

Be warned now. More traders fail from their inability to accept losses then any other single factor. We have to leave our egos behind when trading. It really cannot be about us if we are to have any chance of success.

Remember.

To win the War you need not win every battle!

I know that you all recognize this reality. But I also know that most of you still struggle with it.

Work on your approach – Your mindset. Prove to yourself that this is in actual fact the case.

So how do you do this in 2011?

Well you need to take a 2-3 week period and be totally committed, not to the overall trading results in the context of pips gained or lost, but rather to the process itself, of staying committed to the trade parameters, and to letting those loses simply happen without any attempt to prevent them from occurring at the time.

Look long term – forget short term.

The focus must be on ‘testing’ the theory more then testing the outcome. By committing to this strategy – your focus now becomes less results orientated and because of that, the process is less emotional. Now your sense of failure will no longer be measured in terms of pips earned or lost – but rather in how well you managed to stay the course and leave those trades alone, in attempting to prove or disprove this theory.

Now your ego is not fighting you on each and every individual loss.

Turn your knowledge into experience this year.

Make a choice to make a change.

All the best,

Chris.

 

[kochtgr]

I think the Euro will continue being bullish for the next 2-3 weeks and then collapse until the end of 2011

 

[Traders-Live]

Sorry Guys been travelling so much lately. Here is a brief heads up of the longer term picture...

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k1ZUaQlKNNQ"]Forex_Science_Daily_Trading_Report_22feb.mp4 - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Traders-Live]

Currency report - great set ups for today 2nd March...

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3KNndn9zT74"]Forex_Science_Daily_Trading_Report_2march.mp4 - YouTube[/ame]

 

[Gary]

Hi,I am just new and getting through the information to learn and implement point of thinking.The video attached here is just amazing to know about the Forex analysis.Good work and guideline.Thanks.