Forex Fundamental And Technical Analysis.

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EUR/USD Weakens and GBP/USD Slides. - 13/12/2024​

INTRODUCTION​

Currency markets remain under pressure as major pairs navigate a challenging environment driven by monetary policy shifts, geopolitical risks, and economic data releases. The US Dollar (USD) continues to strengthen, exerting downward pressure on the Euro (EUR), British Pound (GBP), Japanese Yen (JPY), and Australian Dollar (AUD). Market focus now shifts to upcoming Federal Reserve and central bank meetings, which are expected to set the tone for the currency markets in the weeks ahead.

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EUR/USD Remains Fragile Near 1.0460​

The EUR/USD pair faces persistent bearish momentum, trading near a three-week low of 1.0455 during Friday’s Asian session. The pair’s decline is fueled by a dovish European Central Bank (ECB) stance and weak Eurozone economic performance. On Thursday, the ECB implemented its fourth rate cut this year, signaling potential further easing in 2025.

In contrast, expectations of a less dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) have supported the US Dollar. Rising US Treasury bond yields, which reached a new monthly high on Thursday, add to the USD’s strength. Geopolitical risks, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, further bolster the greenback’s safe-haven appeal.

Key Factors Driving EUR/USD:​

• ECB Policy Divergence: ECB’s dovish outlook weighs on the Euro.
• US Treasury Yields: Higher yields sustain USD momentum.
• Geopolitical Risks: Safe-haven demand for USD pressures EUR.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD:​

• Moving Averages:
  • Exponential: MA10: 1.0510 | Bearish
  • Simple: MA10: 1.0516 | Bearish
• RSI: 37.18 | Sell Zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 30.42 | Neutral
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0846 | R2: 1.0988
• Support Levels: S1: 1.0384 | S2: 1.0242

Trade Suggestion:

• Sell Limit: 1.0529
• Take Profit: 1.0401
• Stop Loss: 1.0625

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GBP/USD Slides as Traders Await UK GDP Data​

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EUR/USD Struggles and GBP/USD Rebounds Amid Central Bank Focus. - 17/12/2024​

INTRODUCTION​

The currency markets are in focus as major currency pairs react to central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical developments. Traders are particularly eyeing the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate decision, which has broader implications for the U.S. Dollar (USD), while developments in Europe, the UK, New Zealand, and Canada add further volatility to the forex market. This article delves into key market movements, technical trends, and trade setups for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD/USD, and USD/CAD.

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Markets in Focus: EUR/USD Struggles Below 1.0500​

EUR/USD continues to face challenges in gaining momentum, struggling to stay above the critical 1.0500 level. On Monday, the pair showed modest gains but lacked conviction, edging within a narrow range. While European December PMI figures exceeded expectations, the Services PMI remained in contraction, reflecting ongoing economic concerns in Europe.

The market’s primary focus remains on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets have priced in a 99.1% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. Traders are keenly awaiting the Fed’s updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and its dot plot for further clues on interest rate directions in 2025.

In contrast, U.S. economic data painted a mixed picture. Services PMI surged to multi-year highs, while Manufacturing PMI remained below 50, signaling continued contraction. Retail Sales data, due later today, may have a limited impact as the Fed meeting takes precedence.

EUR/USD Technical Overview:​

• Moving Averages (Exponential):
  • MA 10: 1.0514 – Negative Crossover – Bearish
  • MA 20: 1.0543 – Negative Crossover – Bearish
  • MA 50: 1.0659 – Negative Crossover – Bearish
• RSI: 42.47 – Neutral Zone
• Stochastic Oscillator: 33.26 – Sell Zone
• Resistance and Support Levels:
  • R1: 1.0846 | R2: 1.0988
  • S1: 1.0384 | S2: 1.0242

Overall Sentiment: Bearish
Market Direction: Sell
Trade Suggestion: Limit Sell: 1.0532 | Take Profit: 1.0474 | Stop Loss: 1.0575

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GBP/USD Rebounds as Traders Eye Key Central Bank Decisions​

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EUR/USD Struggles and GBP/USD Rebounds Amid Central Bank Focus. - 19/12/2024​

INTRODUCTION​

Major currency pairs remain under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cut. Traders now await key economic data, including US GDP and inflation figures, alongside central bank decisions in the UK, Eurozone, and Australia, which continue to shape market sentiment. This article delves into the market movements of EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CAD, providing a detailed technical overview and trade suggestions to help investors navigate the evolving forex landscape.

EUR/USD Analysis​

Market Overview​

The EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, trading below the 1.0400 level, weighed down by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on rate cuts. During Thursday’s Asian session, the pair dipped to around 1.0370 as the US Dollar strengthened.

Key Drivers​

• The Federal Reserve implemented a 25 basis point rate cut during its December meeting, reducing the benchmark lending rate to 4.25%-4.50%, the lowest in two years.
• Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled a cautious approach to further rate reductions due to persistent inflation above the 2% target.
• In the Eurozone, expectations of aggressive ECB rate cuts through June 2025 continue to weigh on the Euro.

Technical Overview

​

• Moving Averages: Negative crossovers for MA 10, MA 20, and MA 50 indicate a bearish trend.
• Indicators: RSI at 36.45 (sell zone); Stochastic Oscillator at 13.81 (neutral).
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0846, R2: 1.0988.
• Support Levels: S1: 1.0384, S2: 1.0242.

Trade Suggestion​

Limit Sell: 1.0440
Take Profit: 1.0332
Stop Loss: 1.0516

GBP/USD Analysis​

Market Overview​

The GBP/USD pair rebounds near 1.2590 during Thursday’s Asian session, recovering from a 1% decline following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish rate cut. Anticipation of the Bank of England’s steady interest rate decision further influences market sentiment.

Key Drivers​

• UK CPI rose by 2.6% YoY in November, while Core CPI increased to 3.5%.
• The Bank of England is expected to maintain its current interest rates, focusing on curbing high domestic inflation.
• The pair remains under pressure as traders await critical US economic data, including GDP figures and jobless claims.

Technical Overview

​

• Moving Averages: Negative crossovers for MA 10, MA 20, and MA 50 reinforce bearish sentiment.
• Indicators: RSI at 41.64 (neutral); Stochastic Oscillator at 23.65 (neutral).
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.2970, R2: 1.3102.
• Support Levels: S1: 1.2542, S2: 1.2410.

Trade Suggestion​

Limit Sell: 1.2624
Take Profit: 1.2485
Stop Loss: 1.2728

AUD/USD Analysis​

Market Overview​

The Australian Dollar stabilizes after trimming intraday losses during Thursday’s session. The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure due to the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and rising Consumer Inflation Expectations in Australia.

Key Drivers​

• The Fed’s 25 basis point rate cut bolstered the US Dollar.
• Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.2% in December, the highest since September.
• Market speculation on potential RBA rate cuts adds downward pressure on the AUD.

Technical Overview

• Moving Averages: Negative crossovers for MA 10, MA 20, and MA 50 confirm bearish momentum.
• Indicators: RSI at 27.59 (sell zone); Stochastic Oscillator at 4.73 (neutral).
• Resistance Levels: R1: 0.6641, R2: 0.6701.
• Support Levels: S1: 0.6447, S2: 0.6387.

Trade Suggestion​

Limit Sell: 0.6293
Take Profit: 0.6199
Stop Loss: 0.6366


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EUR/USD Consolidates and GBP/USD Subdued - 23/12/2024​

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD Consolidates Amid Light Volumes, Focus on Fed.
• GBP/USD Subdued as Market Awaits Key Economic Data.
• USD/JPY Bullish Tone Supported by Fed’s Hawkish Stance.
• AUD/USD Declines, Focus Shifts to RBA Minutes.

INTRODUCTION​

Currency markets kicked off the week cautiously, with major pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, and AUD/USD consolidating amid subdued trading volumes. Investors are focusing on central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical developments to shape near-term price movements.

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EUR/USD: Consolidation Amid a Holiday-Shortened Week​

The EUR/USD pair remains steady, trading near 1.0440 during Monday’s European session. This consolidation comes as markets prepare for a holiday-shortened week, with Christmas Eve and Boxing Day affecting trading schedules on Wednesday and Thursday.

Key Factors Influencing EUR/USD​

• US Dollar Stabilization: After a steep decline on Friday due to weaker-than-expected US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data, the US Dollar (USD) has stabilized. Core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve’s preferred metric, rose by 2.8% year-over-year, slightly below the 2.9% forecast. This has raised uncertainties about the Fed’s potential rate-cut cycle in 2025.
• Economic Calendar: Monday’s schedule is light, with investors turning their attention to Tuesday’s release of US Durable Goods Orders for November, expected to show a 0.4% decline after a 0.3% rise in October.

Technical Overview​

​

• Moving Averages:
  • Exponential: MA10 (1.0446), MA20 (1.0491), MA50 (1.0619) – All indicating bearish momentum.
  • Simple: MA10 (1.0454), MA20 (1.0496), MA50 (1.0633) – Negative crossover confirming bearish trends.
• Indicators:
  • RSI: 38.87 (Sell Zone)
  • Stochastic Oscillator: 19.35 (Neutral)
• Key Levels:
  • Resistance: R1 (1.0846), R2 (1.0988)
  • Support: S1 (1.0384), S2 (1.0242)

Trade Suggestion​

Limit Sell: 1.0460 | Take Profit: 1.0344 | Stop Loss: 1.0548

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GBP/USD: Range-Bound with Limited Upside Potential​

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AUD/USD Bearish and USD/CHF Bullish: Forex Market Update.​

KEY HIGHLIGHTS​

• EUR/USD edges toward 1.0350 amid economic data anticipation.
• GBP/USD defensive below 1.2500 awaiting FOMC Minutes.
• AUD/USD bearish despite inflation data, FOMC Minutes awaited.
• USD/CHF bullish near 0.9100 ahead of key releases.

INTRODUCTION​

Global currency markets are navigating mixed signals, with the Australian Dollar (AUD) under pressure while the US Dollar (USD) shows resilience, particularly against the Swiss Franc (CHF). This report delves into the latest developments, focusing on AUD/USD’s bearish momentum and USD/CHF’s bullish outlook. Additional insights into EUR/USD and GBP/USD are also covered for comprehensive analysis.

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AUD/USD: Bearish Momentum Amid Inflation and Policy Concerns​

The Australian Dollar struggles for the second consecutive session against the US Dollar, with the AUD/USD pair trading lower despite stronger-than-expected monthly inflation data. Weak economic indicators and a cautious Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) weigh heavily on the pair.

Key Drivers:​

• Inflation Trends: Australia’s trimmed mean inflation declined to 3.2% annually, nearing the RBA’s target range of 2-3%, dampening expectations of aggressive monetary tightening.
• Building Permits: New construction permits dropped by 3.6% in November, marking the first decline in three months and missing market expectations.
• China’s Economic Support: The People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) collaborative measures to stimulate growth provide limited relief to AUD.

Technical Overview:

​

• Moving Averages:
  • Exponential: MA 10 at 0.6228 (Bearish), MA 20 at 0.6263 (Bearish), MA 50 at 0.6380 (Bearish).
  • Simple: MA 10 at 0.6215 (Bullish), MA 20 at 0.6249 (Bearish), MA 50 at 0.6402 (Bearish).
• RSI: 37.03 (Sell Zone, Neutral).
• Stochastic Oscillator: 40.18 (Neutral Zone).
• Resistance Levels: R1: 0.6428, R2: 0.6509.
• Support Levels: S1: 0.6166, S2: 0.6085.

Trade Suggestion:​

• Action: Limit Sell at 0.6301.
• Take Profit: 0.6180.
• Stop Loss: 0.6388.

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USD/CHF: Bullish Momentum Supported by US Dollar Strength​

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EUR/USD Tests Two-Year Lows, GBP/USD Rebounds.​

KEY HIGHLIGHTS​

• EUR/USD tests two-year lows, struggles to regain momentum.
• GBP/USD rebounds above 1.2200 despite stagflation concerns.
• USD/CHF retreats toward 0.9150 ahead of US PPI data.
• NZD/USD finds support near 0.5600, rebounds cautiously.

INTRODUCTION​

Global currency markets remain highly volatile as economic data releases and geopolitical developments influence key forex pairs. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD are in focus, with EUR/USD testing two-year lows and GBP/USD showing signs of recovery. Below, we delve into the critical factors impacting these pairs and provide technical insights.

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EUR/USD Struggles at Two-Year Lows​

EUR/USD extended its bearish trajectory on Monday, hitting the 1.0200 level for the first time since late 2022. Despite a modest recovery attempt, the pair remains under pressure as the European Central Bank (ECB) continues its rate-cutting stance. This widens the Euro’s interest rate disadvantage relative to the US Dollar, especially as the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish monetary policy.

Key economic data from Europe this week, including final inflation figures for the Eurozone and Germany, are expected to align with preliminary estimates, offering little support to the Euro. Meanwhile, the US is set to release critical economic reports, including the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), which could reinforce USD strength.

Technical Overview

• Moving Averages (Exponential):
  • MA 10: 1.0300 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 20: 1.0349 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
  • MA 50: 1.0481 | Negative Crossover | Bearish
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 34.90 | Sell Zone | Bearish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 20.12 | Sell Zone | Neutral
• Support Levels: S1: 1.0333 | S2: 1.0265
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0551 | R2: 1.0619

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Sell: 1.0302
• Take Profit: 1.0179
• Stop Loss: 1.0407

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GBP/USD Rebounds Above 1.2200​

GBP/USD broke its five-day losing streak on Tuesday, recovering from Monday’s 15-month low of 1.2099. The pair climbed above 1.2200, supported by improved investor sentiment following reports of a phased approach to US tariff hikes under consideration by President-elect Donald Trump’s economic team. This tempered inflation concerns while boosting the Pound.

Despite the rebound, concerns over the UK’s economic health persist. Stagflation risks, rising UK government bond yields, and fiscal worries continue to weigh on the GBP. Rising Treasury yields reflect the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on the US front, further strengthening the USD.

Technical Overview
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Daily Forex Analysis – EUR/USD Steady and GBP/USD Gains.​

KEY HIGHLIGHTS ​

• EUR/USD Steady Near 1.0300 Amid Inauguration Concerns
• GBP/USD Gains Limited Below 1.2200 Amid Uncertainties
• USD/JPY Awaits Inaugural Speech, Trades Near 156.20
• AUD/USD Rises Slightly as Metals Prices Support

INTRODUCTION​

The global currency markets are navigating cautious optimism ahead of President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Mixed pressures on the US Dollar (USD) influence major currency pairs, with EUR/USD maintaining steady movement while GBP/USD posts modest gains. Here’s a detailed analysis of the latest market trends.

EUR/USD: Gains Capped Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration​

The EUR/USD pair has recovered part of its previous session losses, trading near 1.0280 during Asian hours. However, its upside remains limited as market caution ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration strengthens the US Dollar. Traders closely monitor Trump’s anticipated executive orders, which are expected to address policies such as tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration reforms. These factors have increased US Treasury yields, providing additional support to the USD.

Key Influences on EUR/USD:​

• Federal Reserve Outlook: The Fed is expected to maintain interest rates at its January meeting, but markets anticipate rate hikes resuming in March, depending on the extent of Trump’s policy implementations.
• ECB Dovish Expectations: Persistent dovish sentiment surrounds the European Central Bank (ECB), with markets pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut at each of the next four ECB meetings. Concerns about subdued inflationary pressures in the Eurozone weigh on the Euro.

Technical Analysis for EUR/USD:

• Moving Averages:
  • Exponential: MA 10: 1.0302 (Bullish), MA 20: 1.0335 (Bearish), MA 50: 1.0455 (Bearish)
  • Simple: MA 10: 1.0293 (Bullish), MA 20: 1.0332 (Bearish), MA 50: 1.0439 (Bearish)
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 44.68 – Neutral
• Stochastic Oscillator: 44.18 – Neutral
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0551, R2: 1.0619
• Support Levels: S1: 1.0332, S2: 1.0265

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Sell: 1.0351
• Take Profit: 1.0216
• Stop Loss: 1.0456

GBP/USD: Mild Gains Amid Softer USD​

The GBP/USD pair is slightly higher, trading around 1.2180 and recovering from Friday’s decline. A softer US Dollar, driven by expectations of potential Fed rate cuts by year-end, has supported the pair. Additionally, a broadly positive risk sentiment is limiting the USD’s appeal as a safe-haven currency.

Key Influences on GBP/USD:​

• UK Economic Outlook: Concerns over the UK’s fiscal health and the risk of stagflation have capped significant bullish momentum for the British Pound.
• Fed Policy Expectations: Market participants believe Trump’s policies could drive inflation higher, prompting a hawkish Fed stance later in the year.

Technical Analysis for GBP/USD:​

• Moving Averages:
  • Exponential: MA 10: 1.2266 (Bearish), MA 20: 1.2358 (Bearish), MA 50: 1.2538 (Bearish)
  • Simple: MA 10: 1.2261 (Bearish), MA 20: 1.2384 (Bearish), MA 50: 1.2548 (Bearish)
• RSI (Relative Strength Index): 34.09 – Bearish
• Stochastic Oscillator: 21.47 – Neutral
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.2727, R2: 1.2807
• Support Levels: S1: 1.2471, S2: 1.2391

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Sell: 1.2307
• Take Profit: 1.2102
• Stop Loss: 1.2467

Additional Insights: USD/JPY and AUD/USD​

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EUR/USD Drops Amid Tariff Threats and GBP/USD Weakens​

INTRODUCTION​

Global currency markets are under pressure, driven by escalating geopolitical uncertainties, central bank policy shifts, and tariff threats. Key currency pairs like EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, and USD/CHF are reacting to these developments. This article focuses on the EUR/USD’s decline due to tariff concerns and GBP/USD’s weakness as the Bank of England (BoE) hints at an interest rate cut. Keywords such as “EUR/USD,” “GBP/USD,” “tariff threats,” and “central bank policies” ensure relevance for search engines and drive maximum traffic.

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EUR/USD Declines Amid Trump’s Tariff Threats​

The EUR/USD pair is trading near 1.0410, inching closer to the 1.0400 level during Thursday’s Asian session. This decline is attributed to U.S. President Trump’s proposed tariffs on the Eurozone, Canada, Mexico, and China. The European Commission’s preliminary Consumer Confidence report for January, along with U.S. Initial Jobless Claims data, could further impact the pair.

Key Drivers:​

1. Tariff Threats: Trump’s discussion of 25% tariffs has heightened fears of an economic slowdown in the Eurozone.
2. ECB Rate Cut Expectations: Analysts predict a 25-basis-point cut across four upcoming European Central Bank meetings.
3. USD Strength: Rising U.S. Treasury yields and limited Federal Reserve rate cuts provide support for the U.S. Dollar, pressuring the Euro further.

Technical Overview:​

• Moving Averages (MA):
  • Exponential: MA10: 1.0360 | Bullish | MA20: 1.0361 | Bullish
  • Simple: MA10: 1.0330 | Bullish | MA20: 1.0337 | Bullish
• Indicators:
  • RSI: 51.67 (Buy Zone) | Stochastic: 85.04 (Neutral)
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.0551 | R2: 1.0619
• Support Levels: S1: 1.0332 | S2: 1.0265

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Buy: 1.0376 | Take Profit: 1.0458 | Stop Loss: 1.0331

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GBP/USD Weakens as BoE Considers Rate Cuts​

The British Pound trades cautiously amid concerns over rising borrowing costs and the BoE’s dovish stance. December’s higher-than-expected Public Sector Net Borrowing has intensified fears of slowed economic growth in the UK.

Key Drivers:​

1. BoE Rate Cut Expectations: Market participants anticipate a rate cut in February, reflecting the UK’s subdued growth outlook.
2. Tariff Concerns: Higher U.S. tariffs could negatively impact global trade, further weighing on the Pound.
3. Rising Borrowing Costs: The UK’s 30-year gilt yields have surged to 5.47%, their highest in over 26 years.

Technical Overview:​

• Moving Averages (MA):
  • Exponential: MA10: 1.2302 | Bearish | MA20: 1.2356 | Bearish
  • Simple: MA10: 1.2255 | Bullish | MA20: 1.2357 | Bearish
• Indicators:
  • RSI: 42.37 (Neutral) | Stochastic: 46.91 (Neutral)
• Resistance Levels: R1: 1.2727 | R2: 1.2807
• Support Levels: S1: 1.2471 | S2: 1.2391

Trade Suggestion:

• Limit Sell: 1.2367 | Take Profit: 1.2187 | Stop Loss: 1.2478

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AUD/USD Under Pressure Despite Improved Sentiment​

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EUR/USD Gains Expected and GBP/USD Sell-on-Rallies.​

INTRODUCTION​

The forex market is poised for significant movement this week, with the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairs in focus. Monetary policy expectations, geopolitical developments, and critical economic data will drive market sentiment. Here is a comprehensive outlook on the two key pairs and additional insights into USD/JPY and AUD/USD trends.

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EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Gains Expected but Likely Short-Lived​

The EUR/USD pair has shown strength, closing the week above the critical 1.0500 mark and hitting a five-week high. This bullish momentum stems from several factors:

• Weakening US Dollar: The US Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to the 107.30 zone, pressured by growing Federal Reserve rate cuts expectations.
• Eurozone Bond Yields: A rebound in German bund yields, particularly in mid- and long-term segments, has supported the Euro.
• Risk Sentiment: Improved global risk sentiment and speculation around US trade policies have further weighed the Dollar.

ECB’s Monetary Policy​

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to adopt a cautious stance with a possible rate cut. ECB President Christine Lagarde’s emphasis on balancing inflation targets while avoiding instability supports this incremental approach.

Technical Analysis​

• Moving Averages:
  • Exponential: MA10: 1.0388 (Bullish), MA20: 1.0376 (Bullish), MA50: 1.0456 (Bullish)
  • Simple: MA10: 1.0357 (Bullish), MA20: 1.0342 (Bullish), MA50: 1.0430 (Bullish)
• Indicators:
  • RSI: 60.85 (Buy Zone, Bullish)
  • Stochastic Oscillator: 86.67 (Neutral)
• Key Levels:
  • Resistance: R1: 1.0551, R2: 1.0619
  • Support: S1: 1.0332, S2: 1.0265

Trade Suggestion​

• Limit Buy: 1.0440
• Take Profit: 1.0593
• Stop Loss: 1.0357

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GBP/USD Weekly Forecast: Sell-on-Rallies Opportunity​

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