Forex Market Commentary By TitanFX

[titanfx]

USDCAD Next Leg Lower Underway

Key Highlights
• US Dollar moved lower against the Canadian Dollar and broke a crucial support zone.
• Canadian Building Permits released by the Statistics Canada increased by 11.6% in April 2015, compared with the preceding month.
• Canadian Housing Starts report was also released, which posted a reading of 201.7K, compared with the forecast of 185.0K in May 2015.
• USDCAD traded lower and looks set for more downsides in the near term.

Canadian Housing Starts and Building Permits
Earlier during the NY session, the Canadian housing starts report, which represents the number of new single-family homes or buildings were constructed was released by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 185.0K in April 2015, compared with the preceding month in which it came in at 183.3K. However, the outcome was above the forecast, as the Canadian housing starts came in at 201.7K. Moreover, the last reading was also revised up from 181.8K to 183.3K.

USDCAD – Technical Analysis
The US Dollar after setting a high around the 1.2560 against the Canadian Dollar moved lower and crashed below the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a bullish trend line on the hourly chart of USDCAD, which was also breached during the downside rally. The pair settled around the 1.2400 support area.

If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then the broken trend line might act as a resistance for the pair. It also coincides with the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 1.2561 high to 1.2396 low.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

USDCHF Higher Post US Retail Sales Data

Key Highlights
• US Dollar continued to gain traction against the Swiss Franc, as the economic releases in the US were on the impressive side.
• US Retail Sales report released by the US Census Bureau registered an increase of 1.2% in May 2015, compared to the expectation of a 0.7% increase.
• US Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor posted a reading of 279K, compared with the forecast of 277K.
• US Import Price Index was also published, which registered a rise of 1.3% in May 2015, compared to the expectation of 0.8%.

US initial Jobless Claims
Earlier during the NY session, the Initial Jobless Claims, which is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance was published by the US Department of Labor. The forecast was positioned for an increase from 276K to 277K in the week ending June 6 as per the advance figure for seasonally adjusted. However, the outcome missed the mark, as the US Initial Jobless Claims climbed to 279K. The report stated that the 4-week moving average is at 278,750, which is 3,750 higher than compared to the previous week's revised average.

The US continuing jobless claims data was also on the lower side, as it came in at 2.265M, compared with the forecast of 2.188M. The 4-week moving average is at 2,226,750, which is 2,226,750 more than the previous week's revised average.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

Dollar Slides Post Disappointing US Production Report

Key Highlights
• US Dollar was seen trading lower against a basket of currencies, including the Japanese Yen.
• The Empire State Manufacturing Survey conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York came in at -1.98 in June 2015, whereas the market was expecting an increase to 5.20.
• US Industrial Production released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve declined by 0.2% in May 2015, compared with the forecast of a 0.2% rise.
• Canadian Manufacturing Shipment released by the Statistics Canada decreased by 2.1% in April 2015, compared to the last increase of 2.9%.

US Industrial Production
In the US, the Industrial Production, which shows the volume of production of US industries such as factories and manufacturing was released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 0.2% in May 2015, compared with the preceding year. However, the outcome was a negative one, as the US Industrial Production declined by 0.2%. The report stated that “In May, the index for mining moved down 0.3 percent after declining more than 1 percent per month, on average, in the previous four months”.

The US Capacity Utilization was also published, which measures the US production capacity which is actually used. The outcome was again on the lower side compared with the forecast of 78.2%, as it came in at 78.1%.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

USDCAD Sellers Await Canadian CPI Report

Key Highlights
• US Dollar is under pressure against currencies such as the Euro and the British Pound, but remained stable against the Canadian Dollar.
• Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released by the Statistics Canada today, which is expected to increase by 0.5% in May 2015.
• Canadian Retail Sales report will also be published, and the forecast is of a 0.7% increase in sales.
• USDCAD is trading around a critical level, and any major deviation in today’s releases in Canada might cause swing moves.

USDCAD – Technical Analysis
The USDCAD pair declined heavily recently towards 1.2120 before finding buyers around the mentioned support area. There was a solid buying interest noted, which pushed the pair back up in no time. Earlier, there was a channel which was breached by sellers, and now it is acting as a resistance for more upsides. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.2351 high to 1.21247 low is also around the same area. In short, there is a major resistance building around 1.2240-50.

The hourly RSI has moved above the 50 level, suggesting that the pair might climb higher in the near term. There are chances of it forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern as well, which might be a brutal call for sellers.
However, there is also a major barrier around the 100 hourly simple moving average, as one more bearish trend line along with the 200 MA is waiting around the same area at 1.2300. Let us see how sellers react if the pair reaches around the mentioned area.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

USDCHF under Bearish Pressure

Key Highlights
• US Dollar is under bearish pressure especially against the Swiss franc and might trade lower.
• US Existing Home Sales, released by the National Association of Realtors posted an increase of 5.1% in May 2015, compared to the preceding month.
• Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) came in at -0.17 in May 2015.

US Existing Home Sales Change
Earlier during the NY session, the US Existing Home Sales which present an estimated value of housing market conditions and a sensitive factor to the US economy was released by the National Association of Realtors. The market was expecting it to rise by 4.4% in May 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was better than the forecast, as the US Existing Home Sales increased by 5.1% to 5.35M, compared to the expectation of 5.26M. Moreover, the yearly change was also on the higher side, as there was an eight consecutive month’s increase, rising 9.2 percent above a year ago (4.90 million).

USDCHF Technical Analysis
The USDCHF pair is trading lower and following a nice bearish path. There is a monster resistance trend line formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a barrier for buyers. There are more than five failures noted around the highlighted trend line. Moreover, the pair is placed below the 100 and 200 simple moving averages, which is another negative sign for buyers.

If the pair manages to correct higher, then it might face hurdle around 0.9250, followed by the 0.9280 level. On the downside, the last swing low of 0.9200 could act as a support in the short term.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPUSD – Dollar Gains Post GDP Release

Key Highlights
• US Dollar gaining bids against most of its counterparts, including the British Pound after the US GDP release.
• US Gross Domestic Product Annualized rate released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis registered a decline of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015, just as the market expected.
• US GDP Price Index declined by 0.1%, compared with the forecast of a 0.1% gain.
• US Personal Consumption Expenditures, released by US Department of Commerce registered a decline of 2% in the first quarter of 2015, compared with the preceding quarter.

US GDP
Earlier today, the US Gross Domestic Product, which represents the monetary value of all the goods, services and structures produced within a country was released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. The forecast was lined up for a decrease of 0.2% in the first quarter of 2015 at an annual rate. The outcome matched the forecast, as there was a decline of 0.2%. This was on the lower side, as the real GDP was +2.2% in the fourth quarter 2014.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair after declining towards 1.5700 found buyers and corrected higher. However, the upside was limited as there are a couple of bearish trend lines formed on the hourly chart, which held gains. Moreover, the 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5908 high to 1.5706 low is also around the same area. Overall, there was a major resistance formed around 1.5800 area.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDUSD Looks like Setting Up For Recovery

Key Highlights
• AUDUSD traded lower towards 0.7600 before finding buyers to trade back higher.
• A breakout pattern is formed on the hourly chart, i.e. likely to open to the doors for more upsides in the near term.
• US Pending Home Sales released by the National Association of Realtors posted an increase of 0.9% in May 2015, compared with the forecast of 1.2%.

US Pending Home Sales
Earlier during the NY session, the US Pending Home Sales, which is a leading indicator of trends of the housing market in the US was released by the National Association of Realtors. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 1.2% in May 2015, compared with the preceding month. However, the outcome was a bit on the1 lower side, as there was a rise of 0.9%. The outcome was a positive one, as it registered the highest level in over nine years.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar opened the week with a gap lower this week, and traded as low as 0.7586. There was a buying interest noted around the mentioned area that pushed the pair back higher. The pair managed to close the gap, and now forming a flag pattern. The pair corrected lower and found support around the 50% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the 0.7586 low to 0.7693 high.

There is a chance that the pair might break the flag pattern and trade higher. A break above the same could take the pair towards the 100 hourly simple moving average, followed by the 200 hourly SMA.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPUSD Poised for Declines Unless Greece Stays in Euro Zone

Key Highlights
• British Pound after surging higher declined, and looks set for more losses in the near term.
• UK Gross Domestic Product released by the National Statistics registered an increase of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the preceding quarter.
• UK Index of Services registered a gain of 0.5% whereas the forecast was 0.4%.
• UK Total Business Investment representing the total amount of capital expenditures made by private firm posted a rise of 2% in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the preceding quarter.
• In the US, the Consumer Confidence released by the Conference Board came in at 101.4 in June 2015, up from the last reading of 94.6 (revised).

UK GDP
Earlier today in the UK, there was an important event, as the Gross Domestic Product, which highlights the sum of goods and services produced within the economy less the value of goods and services was published by the National Statistics. The market was expecting a gain of 0.4% in the GDP in the first quarter of 2015, compared to the preceding quarter. The result was in line with the forecast, as the GDP grew by 0.4%. When we look at the year-over-year change, the UK GDP posted a rise of 2.9% in first quarter of 2015, compared with the forecast 2.5%.

The UK Index of Services, which calculates the monthly movements in gross value added for the service industries was on the higher side. It registered an increase of 0.5%, compared with the last rise of 0.4%.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

US Dollar Continues To Gain Traction

Key Highlights
• US Dollar remained the first choice of investors, as it traded higher intraday against most of its counterparts.
• US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by Markit Economics came in at 54.8 in June 2015, unchanged from the last reading.
• Canadian Ivey PMI released by the Richard Ivey School of Business came in at 55.9 in June 2015, i.e. above the forecast but lower compared with the last reading of 62.3.
• USDCAD pair is trading higher and looks set for more gains in the near term.

US Services PMI
Earlier during the NY session, the US Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which gauges business conditions in the services sector was released by Markit Economics. The market was not expecting any major change in the PMI in June 2015. The result was in line with the forecast, as US Services Purchasing Managers Index came in at 54.8, i.e. similar to the last reading. The market liked the outcome, as the greenback was lifted after the release.
However, there was a minor concern noted in the report published, as it highlighted the fact that there was a slowdown in both output growth and staff hiring across for the service sector at Q2 2015 end.

Commenting on the recent release, the Chief Economist at Markit, Chris Williamson, stated that the “The June PMI data round off a solid second quarter for the US economy, with GDP likely to have risen at an annualized 3% rate. However, it’s important to look at what’s happened over the course of the quarter, rather than looking at the quarter as a whole”.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

US Dollar Remains in Control Post Jobless Claims

Key Highlights
• US Dollar remains in control as the market sentiment is still in favor of buyers.
• US Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor came in at 297K, whereas the market is expecting it to stay around 275K.
• US Continuing jobless claims increased to 2.234M, whereas the expectation was of 2.248M.
• Canadian Housing Starts released by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation came in at 202.81K, whereas the expectation was of 190.00K.

USDCHF Technical Analysis
The US Dollar traded higher against the Swiss Franc during the past couple of days. There is a contracting triangle pattern formed on the 4-hours chart, which might clear the way for more upsides in the near term.

There are many signs suggesting more gains moving ahead may be towards the 0.9550 mark.

US Initial Jobless Claims
Earlier during the NY session, the Initial Jobless Claims, which is a measure of the number of people filing first-time claims for state unemployment insurance was released by the US Department of Labor. The forecast was lined up for a decrease from 281K to 275K in the week ending June 4, as per the advance figure for seasonally adjusted. However, the outcome was below the market expectation, as the US Initial Jobless Claims came in at 297K. The report stated that the 4-week moving average is now 279,500 level, which is 15000 more than compared to the previous week's revised average of 282,000.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPJPY Trading Around Critical Juncture

Key Highlights
• British Pound surged higher against the Japanese Yen, but it found resistance around a major resistance zone.
• Japanese Industrial Production released by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry declined by 2.1% in May 2015, compared with the preceding month.
• Japanese Capacity Utilization also posted a decline by 3% in May, which was also below the forecast compared with the last reading.

GBPJPY Technical Analysis
The British Pound enjoyed a decent ride against the Japanese Yen, as the GBPJPY pair traded above a major resistance area of 190.00. There was a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart of the pair, which was breached by buyers. However, the break was crucial, but the upside found resistance around the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 196.86 high to 184.97 low.

The most important point was the fact that the 100 and 200 simple moving averages is also aligned with the mentioned fib level. It looks like there is a major resistance formed around 191.70-80 where sellers might take a stand.

The recent break was a major one, so if there is a correction, then the pair might find support around the broken trend line. The hourly RSI is above the 50 level, which is a positive sign. On the upside, a break and close above the 200 SMA may take the pair higher in the near term.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

NZDUSD Crashes after NZ CPI
Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar crashed against the US Dollar, as an important economic release in New Zealand came below the forecast.
• New Zealand Consumer Price Index released by the Statistics New Zealand rose by 0.3% in the second quarter of 2015, compared with the forecast of 0.4%.
• New Zealand Business NZ PMI released by the Business NZ increased from the previous revised reading of 52 to 55.2 in May 2015.

New Zealand CPI
Earlier during the Asian session, New Zealand Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services was released by the Statistics New Zealand. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 0.4% in the second quarter of 2015, compared with the same quarter a year ago. However, the result was disappointing, as the New Zealand CPI rose by 0.3%.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
As mentioned the NZDUSD pair moved lower after the release. There was a support trend line formed on the hourly chart, which was pierced by sellers to set the pair for more declines in the near term. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.6740 high to 0.6530 low can be seen as a hurdle.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

Dollar Rockets Higher Post US CPI

Key Highlights
• US Dollar gained a lot of bids after a flurry of releases in the US and Canada.
• Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Statistics Canada posted an increase of 0.2% in June 2015, compared with the forecast of 0.3%.
• In the US, the Consumer Price Index released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics registered an increase of 0.1% in June 2015, which was in line with the market forecast.

US Consumer Price index
Earlier during the NY session, the US Consumer Price Index, which is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services was released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. The forecast was lined up for an increase of 0.1% in June 2015, compared with the same month a year ago. The outcome was in line with the forecast, which was a positive sign for the USD bulls. In terms of the monthly change, the US CPI gained by 0.3%, which was a bit lower when compared with the last rise of 0.4%.

The report mentioned that the “energy index rose for the second straight month as the indexes for gasoline, electricity, and natural gas all increased. The food index posted its largest increase since September 2014, partly due to a sharp increase in the eggs index“.

Moreover, the US core CPI rose 1.8% in June 2015, compared with June 2014 which was also in line with the forecast.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

Can AUD Sellers Keep the Momentum Going?

Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar continued to weaken against the US Dollar, and it is likely to move lower in the near term.
• AUDUSD pair is following a nice bearish trend, which if holds might encourage sellers moving ahead.
• There was no real positive sign to note from the recently published RBA meeting minutes.
• New Zealand Visitor Arrivals released by the Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 9.2% in June 2015, compared with the last gain of 9.5%.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The Aussie Dollar recently traded towards 0.7320-30 support area against the US Dollar where it managed to find buyers. The AUDUSD pair is currently making an attempt to correct higher, but there is a bearish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which is acting as a barrier towards the upside. There were many rejections noted around the highlighted trend line. The most important point is the fact that the pair is below the 200 and 100 hourly simple moving averages, which is a negative sign for buyers.

The 50% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.7438 high to 0.7326 low is also a major hurdle on the upside. Let us see how the pair trades in the near term and whether it can clear the stated hurdles and trade higher.

The hourly RSI is below the 50 level, which is pointing towards more losses. On the downside, the last low of 0.7326 is a short-term support area.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDUSD Under Bearish Pressure

Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar managed to climb higher recently against the US Dollar, but sellers managed to defend the upside.
• AUDUSD remains under bearish pressure and it is likely to continue trading lower.
• Australian Building Permits released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics declined by 8.2% in June 2015, which was a lot more than the market expected.
• Australian export price index fell by 4.4% in Q2 2015, more than the forecast of -4%.

Australian Building Permits
Earlier during the Asian session, the Australian Building Permits report, which shows the number of permits for new construction projects was released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The market was expecting a decrease of 0.8% in June 2015, compared with the preceding month. However, the outcome was below the forecast, as the Australian Building Permits declined by 8.2%.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair traded higher Intraday after setting a short-term bottom around 0.7250. However, the pair found hurdles around an important bearish trend line on the hourly chart, which stalled gains in the near term. Moreover, the 200 hourly simple moving average is also aligned with the highlighted trend line, which is adding to the bearish pressure on the pair. However, on the other hand, the 100 hourly SMA is providing support on the downside.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

US Dollar Positioned For More Gains

Key Highlights
• US Dollar continued to trade higher against the Swiss Franc and it is likely to continue trading higher.
• US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) released by the Markit Economics came in at 53.8 in July 2015, unchanged from the last reading.
• Australian AIG performance of the Mfg Index released by the Australian Industry Group posted a nasty increase from 44.2 to 50.4.

US Manufacturing PMI
Earlier during the NY session, the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) that captures business conditions in the manufacturing sector was released by the Markit Economics. The market was not expecting any change from the last reading in July 2015. The outcome was as expected, as the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index came in at 53.8.

Commenting on the report, the Chief Economist at Markit, Chris Williamson, stated that “The PMI picked up in July but the sector continues to endure one of the slowest growth phases seen over the past year and a half”.
Overall, the data was on the positive, which managed to lift the US Dollar and pushed the greenback higher against a basket of currencies.

There was one more release lined up in the US, as the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index, which represents business conditions in the US manufacturing sector was published. The market was not expecting any change from the last reading in July 2015. However, the outcome was a disappointing one, as the US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index declined to 52.7 in July 2015.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPUSD – New Low Likely Below 1.5460

Key Highlights
• British Pound dived Intraday against the US Dollar, as the rate hike expectation of the market was not aligned with the BOE members.
• BOE meeting minutes revealed that only one member was in favor of a rate hike compared with the forecast of two.
• UK GDP Estimate released by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research came in at 07%, unchanged from the last reading.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair moved lower sharply recently after the release of the BOE meeting minutes, and traded below 1.5500 support area. It traded as low as 1.5466 where buyers appeared to defend more losses. There an expanding triangle pattern formed on the hourly chart, which helped in preventing more downsides.

Currently, there is a small breakout pattern formed with a resistance around the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5635 high to 1.5466 low. The most critical point to note is the fact that there is a bearish cross noted for the 100 and 200 simple moving averages, and the pair is well below it. So, the chances of the pair trading lower have increased over time, and sellers might remain in control for some time.

On the upside, an immediate resistance is around the triangle trend line, followed by the 50% Fib level. Any further gains might push the pair towards the 100 and 200 SMA confluence area.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

NZDUSD – Trend Line Break Near

Key Highlights
• New Zealand Dollar traded lower against the US dollar, and traded near a major support trend line.
• New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales as reported by Statistics New Zealand posted an increase of 0.4% in July 2015, lower when compared with the last rise of 0.5%.
• In terms of the yearly change, there was a rise of 5.6% in July 2015.
• In the UK, the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales Monitor which measures changes in the actual value of retail sales from participating companies posted a rise of 1.2% in July 2015 more than the forecast of 1%.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis
The New Zealand Dollar moved a lot during the Asian session against the US dollar and traded lower by more than 50 pips. The NZDUSD pair dived below the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving averages, which can be considered as a bearish sign in the near term.

However, there is a bullish trend line formed on the hourly chart, which acted as a hurdle for sellers. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then it might face resistance around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 0.6632 high to 0.6536 low, coinciding with the 100 SMA.

On the downside, a break below the highlighted trend line could ignite more losses in the short term.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

AUDUSD Poised For a Break

Key Highlights
• Aussie Dollar after trading close to the 0.7400 area against the US Dollar found resistance and traded lower.
• In the US, the retail sales published by the US Census Bureau posted an increase of 0.6% in July 2015, compared to the expectation of a 0.5% rise.
• US Initial Jobless Claims released by the US Department of Labor posted a rise from the last reading of 270K to 274K.
• US Import Price Index declined by 0.9% in July, less than the forecast.

AUDUSD Technical Analysis
The AUDUSD pair recently traded close to the 0.7400 resistance area where it found sellers and moved lower. The worst part is that the pair is now trading below the 100 and 200 hourly simple moving average, which is a bearish sign.

There is a triangle pattern formed, which awaits a break. The chance of a break lower is high, as the hourly RSI is below the 50 level and buyers are struggling to hold the ground.

US Retail Sales
Today, the US saw some key releases, including the retail sales report and the initial jobless claims. First, the US retail sales report measuring the total receipts of retail stores was published by the US Census Bureau. The market was expecting it to increase by 0.5% in July 2015, compared to the preceding month. However, the outcome was on better than the forecast, as the US retail sales rose 0.6%. However, the Core Retail Sales missed the mark, and posted an increase of 0.4%, lower compared with the forecast of 0.5%.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'

 

[titanfx]

GBPUSD Awaits UK CPI Report for Next Move

Key Highlights
• British Pound looks nervous ahead of a key release in the UK today, as the GBPUSD traded lower.
• GBPUSD cleared an important support trend line to trade towards the 200 hourly moving average.
• UK Consumer Price Index, measuring the price movements by the comparison between the retail prices will be published by the National Statistics today.
• In Australia, the New Motor Vehicle Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics posted a decline of 1.3% in July 2015, compared with the preceding month.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis
The GBPUSD pair recently climbed towards the 1.5680 resistance area where it found sellers and as a result, there was a downside reaction. There are a couple of bullish trend lines formed on the hourly chart, out of which the first one was broken during the slide. However, the second one managed to hold the downside, as it is also aligned with the 200 hourly simple moving average.

However, the pair breached the 100 SMA, which is a warning sign in the near term, and might ignite more losses. If the pair corrects higher from the current levels, then an initial resistance could be around the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last drop from the 1.5687 high to 1.5573 low. The most important hurdle for buyers could be around the 100 hourly SMA, as it is also sitting around the 38.2% fib level.

Lastly, the broken trend line might also come into play if there is any major upside move. On the downside, a break below the 200 SMA might call for a retest of the last pivot at 1.5500.

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Posted by Aayush Jindal - 'Titan FX Currency Analyst'