Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 10/09/2009

Forexpros04

Master Trader
Mar 31, 2009
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Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 23/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, 2009


Webinar Tomorrow on Forexpros: Beyond the Forex Chart: Inter-Market Analysis

Hosted by: Mark Dela Paz, of FX Instructor
Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 11:00 EST

Have you ever wondered why the dollar drops when gold and oil prices are up, or the Yen crosses rally when the stock markets are on a run. Join Mark de la Paz of FXinstructor in his latest module for the ‘Forex 101’ series, as we examine the fundamental reasons behind inter-market correlations and learn how to use technical analysis to take advantage of these market relationships.


Click here to join the webinar.

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Fundamental Insight:

Traders await tomorrow's release of the Ifo Business Climate Index by the German Institute for Economic Research.
The index is concluded from survey of about 7,000 businesses, and determines the business sentiment and conditions in the Euro-zone.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Analysts expect tomorrow's reading to stand at 92.50, and increase from last month's 91.90.

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Euro Dollar:

The Euro dropped and broke the specified support in Friday’s report 1.4877, successfully reaching the first suggested target 1.4820. But it stayed above the most important support 1.4786. Short-term support is provided by the rising trendline from Friday’s low on intraday charts, and if broken we will get another chance to test 1.4786 after Friday’s attempt that stopped at 1.4800. The above mentioned support will stay the most important, especially with the rising line from August 17th low getting close to this level. Short-term resistance is 1.4952, and if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year.

Support:
• 1.4881: the rising trendline from Friday’s low on intraday charts.
• 1.4820: November 13th low.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4952: the falling trendline from 1.5047.
• 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

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USDJPY:

Dollar-Yen moved in a very tight range on Friday, without any technically significant moves! The down movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 89.05 where there is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10

Support:
• 88.72: Nov 17th low.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.

Resistance:
• 89.05: the moving average SMA100.
• 89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
• 90.73: intraday top.

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Forex Trading Analysis, by Forexpros

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Disclaimer

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
________________
 

Forexpros04

Master Trader
Mar 31, 2009
428
0
47
Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, Supplemental

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 23, Supplemental


Fundamental Weekly Outlook

EU:
• Monday: France PMI Manufacturing (Previous 55.6, Forecast 55.8) & PMI Services (Previous 57.7, Forecast 57.4). Germany PMI Manufacturing (Previous 51.0, Forecast 51.6) & PMI Services (Previous 50.7, Forecast 51.2). Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (Previous 50.7, Forecast 51.2) & PMI Services (Previous 52.6, Forecast 52.9).
• Tuesday: Euro-Zone Industrial New Orders MoM (Previous 2.0%, Forecast 1.0%) & YoY (Previous -23.1%, Forecast -17.1%). Business Confidence Indicator (Previous -1.78, Forecast -1.65). Germany GDP QoQ (Previous 0.7%, Forecast 0.7%) & YoY, (Previous -4.7%, Forecast -4.7%), Private Consumption (Previous 0.7, Forecast -0.4%), Capital Investment (Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.8%), Imports (Previous -5.1%, Forecast 3.5%), Exports (Previous -1.2%, Forecast 4.1%). IFO - Business Climate (Previous 91.9, Forecast 92.5), IFO - Current Assessment (Previous 87.3, Forecast 88.0), IFO – Expectations (Previous 96.8, Forecast 97.3). France Consumer Spending MoM (Previous 2.3%, Forecast 2.4%) & YoY (Previous 1.0%, Forecast 2.3%). Business Confidence Indicator (Previous 89, Forecast 91).
• Wednesday: Germany GfK Consumer Confidence (Previous 4, Forecast 4).
• Thursday: Germany CPI MoM (Previous 0.1%, Forecast 0.0%) & YoY (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.5%).
• Friday: Germany Import Price Index YoY (Previous -11.0%, Forecast -8.7%) & MoM (Previous -0.9%, Forecast 0.4%).. France Consumer Confidence. Business Confidence Indicator (Previous -35, Forecast -35) Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence (Previous -18, Forecast -17).

US:
• Monday: Existing Home Sales MoM (Previous 9.4%, Forecast 2.3%).
• Tuesday: GDP QoQ (Previous 3.5%, Forecast 2.9%), Personal Consumption (Previous 3.4%, Forecast 3.2%), Consumer Confidence (Previous 47.7, Forecast 47.5), House Price Index MoM (Previous -0.3%, Forecast -0.1%). Minutes of Nov. 4 FOMC Meeting (Text Report).
• Wednesday: Personal Income (Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.2%), Personal Spending (Previous -0.5%, Forecast -0.6%). Durable Goods Orders (Previous 1.0%, Forecast 0.5%), Durable Goods Orders Ex Transportation (Previous -0.9%, Forecast 0.7%). Initial Jobless Claims (Previous 500K, Forecast 505K), University of Michigan Confidence (Previous 66.0, Forecast 67.0), New Home Sales MoM (Previous -3.6%, Forecast 0.8%).

JP:
• Wednesday: Trade Balance (Previous 520.6 B, Forecast 465.5 B).
• Friday: Jobless Rate (Previous 5.3%, Forecast 5.4%), Tokyo CPI YoY (Previous -2.4%, Forecast -2.3%), Tokyo CPI EX Food & Energy YoY (Previous -1.4%, Forecast -1.4%), National CPI YoY (Previous -2.2%, Forecast -2.4%), National CPI EX Food & Energy YoY (Previous -1.0%, Forecast -1.1%). Retail Sales MoM (Previous 0.9%, Forecast -0.9%) & YoY (Previous -1.4%, Forecast -1.6%).

UK:
• Wednesday: GDP QoQ (Previous -0.4%, Forecast -0.3%) & YoY (Previous -5.2%, Forecast -5.1%), Private Consumption (Previous -0.6%, Forecast -0.2%), Exports (Previous -1.4%, Forecast 1.4%), Imports (Previous -2.2%, Forecast 2.0%).

AU:
• Monday: New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM (Previous 2.9%, Forecast N/A) & YoY (Previous -2.0%, Forecast N/A).
• Tuesday: CB Leading Index (Previous 1.8%, Forecast N/A).
• Thursday: Private Capital Expenditure (Previous 3.3%, Forecast 1.0%).

CA:
• Monday: Retail Sales (Previous 0.8%, Forecast 0.6%) & Retail Sales Less Autos (Previous 0.5%, Forecast 0.4%).
• Friday: Current Account (Previous -11.2%, Forecast N/A).



Technical Analysis


Euro Dollar:

The pair has pulled off the low of the range (1.4800), and looks prepared to move back higher to test some former highs. This will either be confirmed or rejected based on movement through the following levels:
A move back above 1.4890 indicates movement back above 1.4900 and a test of recent swing highs at 1.4930-1.4940. We have trendline support above this at 1.4950-1.4965, this will also act as resistance. Beyond is resistance at 1.4980-1.4990.

Keep in mind that old support and resistance become new resistance and support respectively if a level is moved through and then retreats back. Movement through one level indicates movement to the next, and failures are likely to move back to other levels mentioned. Support and resistance does not mean rates will move exactly to the price mentioned, rather they are profit taking opportunities in those areas (or possibly entry prices if moved through) as retracements are more likely around those levels. This is misunderstood by many traders, and I will elaborate on it on an upcoming post on my blog.

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For further in-depth reading on
USD/CAD and other major currencies, visit our Technical Analysis section.

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A drop back below 1.4840 is our first indication of a move lower. The trend line this move would break is short term and not of high importance. The closest major level is 1.4800. A break below that would be significant.

A break below 1.4800, if it is legit, will find support at 1.4770, 1.4740-1.4730 then 1.4700. If the break is not legit and just a stop run, it will likely tucker out by 1.4780-1.4770 and then reverse. I say that only we because we all know there are a pile of stops sitting down there.

Keep in mind that since we know stop hunting is a common practice, whether intentional or not, and is a strategy in and of itself. If there is a level that is likely to have many stops it, it seems to create a gravitational pull and can result in a quick surge but often retraces. Watch and see if you see this happening around critical levels. If there is interest I can post a article on how to trade this phenomenon. Have a great day trading everyone!


Forex Analysis written by Cory Mitchell, in conjunction with Forexpros

Disclaimer:
Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
 

Forexpros04

Master Trader
Mar 31, 2009
428
0
47
Forexpros.com Daily Analysis - 24/11/2009

Forexpros Daily Analysis Nov 24, 2009


Free Webinar Today on Forexpros: Beyond the Forex Chart: Inter-Market Analysis

Hosted by: Mark Dela Paz, of FX Instructor
Tue, Nov 24, 2009, 11:00 EST

Have you ever wondered why the dollar drops when gold and oil prices are up, or the Yen crosses rally when the stock markets are on a run. Join Mark de la Paz of FXinstructor in his latest module for the ‘Forex 101’ series, as we examine the fundamental reasons behind inter-market correlations and learn how to use technical analysis to take advantage of these market relationships.


Click here to join the webinar.

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Fundamental Insight

The US Census Bureau will release the Monthly New Home Sales Report tomorrow (Nov 25th).

The report helps analyze the strength of the US housing market, and the economy as a whole, by measuring the annualized number of new residential buildings that were sold during the previous month.
The new home sales report is quite volatile and subject to huge revisions.
A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.
Analysts expect last month’s measure of 402.00K to rise to 408.00K.

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Euro Dollar

Although it broke the resistance at 1.4952, The Euro was unable to surpass 1.50. The sharp drop that followed made 1.4875 the most important support for the short-term. This support, could reverse this drop, and initiate a rising move. But if it is broken, the drop coming from 1.4997 will continue, targeting 1.4820 first, and then the most important support for the time being at 1.4786. On the other hand, short-term resistance is 1.4951, and if it is overtaken, then the technical outlook will have the strength to reach 1.5018 first, and if this is broke we have the right to expect 1.5082 for the first time this year.

Support:
• 1.4875: Fibonacci 61.8% for the short-term.
• 1.4820: November 13th low.
• 1.4786: Fibonacci 61.8% for the rising move from 1.4625, the most important support for the medium-term.

Resistance:
• 1.4951: short-term resistance.
• 1.5018: Nov 9th & 10th high.
• 1.5082: previous resistance from 2008.

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USD/JPY

Dollar-Yen moved in a tight range again, but it dropped to 88.54 this morning which is the same level that stopped yesterday's drop! The down movement has slowed down, drawing our attention to what could be a wedge pattern, which is a pattern that could limit the current drop to the bottom of this pattern, or a support that is close to it, and could push price higher on the short-term. If this scenario turns out to be right, we will rise and break short-term resistance 88.97 where there is the moving average SMA100, and we will witness a rising move targeting the falling trendline from October 26th top, and the upper limit of the above mentioned pattern at 89.71 first, and if broken we could see a jump to 90.73. On the other hand, if the short-term support at 88.72 is broken, we will target 88.13 which is the last significant support before the last 15 years low 87.10

Support:
• 88.56: short-term support.
• 88.13: Oct 13th low.
• 87.10: Jan 12th low.

Resistance:
• 88.97: the moving average SMA100.
• 89.71: the top of the supposed wedge formation.
• 90.73: intraday top.

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Forex Trading Analysis by Forexpros.

Forexpros brings you technical analysis on major currency pairs including
USD/CHF.

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Disclaimer

Trading Futures and Options on Futures and Cash Forex transactions involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. You should carefully consider whether trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances, knowledge, and financial resources. You may lose all or more of your initial investment. Opinions, market data, and recommendations are subject to change at any time.
________________