ForexTechnical Analysis

[FXGLORY]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.17.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently experiencing potential volatility due to USD-related events. The U.S. market will have low liquidity today as banks remain closed for Presidents' Day, which typically results in irregular volatility as institutional traders step aside, leaving room for speculative price swings. Additionally, speeches from Federal Reserve officials Patrick Harker and Michelle Bowman could provide insights into future U.S. monetary policy. A hawkish stance may strengthen the USD, adding bearish pressure on BTC USD, while a dovish tone could support risk assets like Bitcoin. Traders should remain cautious as thin liquidity can lead to unexpected price spikes or rapid moves in either direction.



Price Action:
BTCUSD on the H4 timeframe is currently experiencing a bearish move after facing resistance at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, leading to a sharp decline that has already broken below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. The price has moved from the upper Bollinger Band to the middle band and is now trending downward toward the lower band, signaling increased bearish pressure. If the price fails to hold above key support levels, further downside movement toward the lower Bollinger Band and the next Fibonacci support zones is likely.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands indicate that BTCUSD has moved downward from the upper band toward the middle band and is now attempting to break lower. This suggests that selling pressure is increasing, with a potential test of the lower Bollinger Band in the coming sessions. A confirmed break below the lower band could signal further bearish continuation, while a bounce from this area might indicate temporary consolidation before the next move.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is showing strong bearish momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line, confirming a downside bias. The increasing separation between the MACD and signal lines suggests that selling pressure is still dominant. If the bearish momentum continues to grow, Bitcoin may extend losses toward key support levels. However, a weakening histogram could indicate that the downside move is slowing, signaling possible consolidation or reversal.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 45.76, reflecting bearish sentiment but not yet reaching oversold conditions. This indicates that BTC/USD still has room to move lower before a potential reversal. If the RSI drops below 30, it would signal an oversold scenario, potentially triggering a short-term price correction. Until then, the bearish outlook remains intact, with a downward trend likely to persist in the near term.



Support and Resistance:
Support: The nearest support level is at $94,877, with a stronger support zone at $94,177, aligning with previous key price action areas.
Resistance: The immediate resistance level is at $97,183, with the next major resistance at $98,866, near the 50% Fibonacci retracement level.



Conclusion and Consideration:
BTCUSD on the H4 chart is currently in a bearish phase, as indicated by the break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level, declining MACD momentum, and RSI trending lower. The price movement from the upper Bollinger Band toward the lower band confirms the increasing selling pressure, with a high probability of further downside unless key support levels hold. With low liquidity due to the U.S. bank holiday, traders should be prepared for irregular volatility and possible sharp movements. Additionally, the upcoming speeches from Federal Reserve officials could provide unexpected market catalysts, influencing Bitcoin’s price action in correlation with USD movements. Caution is advised, and traders should employ proper risk management strategies while monitoring key levels for potential trade setups.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.17.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

AUDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.19.2025




Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUD/USD currency pair is currently influenced by several key fundamental factors. The US Dollar's strength remains in focus as traders await the latest Building Permits and Housing Starts data from the US Census Bureau, which serve as leading indicators for economic activity and construction demand. A stronger-than-expected release could support the USD and apply downward pressure on AUD/USD. Meanwhile, Australia’s economic outlook is shaped by the Melbourne Institute Leading Index and the Wage Price Index, which provide insight into economic growth and inflation trends. If these indicators reflect economic resilience, the AUD could find support. Additionally, market participants will be closely monitoring RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr’s testimony, as any hawkish tone on interest rates could impact risk sentiment and commodity-linked currencies like the AUD.


Price Action:
On the H4 chart, AUD-USD has been in an uptrend following a Morning Star candlestick pattern at the ascending trendline support. The price has reached a key resistance level and is now undergoing a correction. This pullback could extend to Zone 1, where buyers may re-enter the market before the next upward move. The presence of higher highs and higher lows suggests that the overall trend remains bullish unless there is a confirmed break below key support.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently around 57.17, showing a possible divergence. This suggests a weakening bullish momentum, although it has not yet entered overbought conditions. A drop below 50 could indicate further downside correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is declining, and the signal line is showing signs of a potential bearish crossover. This indicates that while the bullish trend is still intact, buying momentum is decreasing, and further correction could be expected before a continuation of the uptrend.
Stochastic Oscillator: The stochastic is currently at 38.17, pointing downward. This suggests that the price could continue to correct in the short term before finding renewed buying interest at key support levels.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.6280, which aligns with the lower boundary of the ascending trendline and a key demand zone. Another support level is found at 0.6350, marking a previous breakout zone and price consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.6370, where the price is currently consolidating. If bullish momentum persists, the next major resistance level is at 0.6400, which coincides with recent highs and an important psychological barrier.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUD/USD pair on the H4 chart continues to maintain its bullish structure but faces a short-term correction phase. Traders should monitor Zone 1 for potential bullish re-entry opportunities. A break below 0.6350 could trigger further downside movement, while a breakout above 0.6370 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend. Given upcoming economic releases, volatility is expected. Traders should watch for USD strength or weakness following the US Building Permits and Housing Starts data, as well as Australian economic reports that may influence the AUD.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUDUSD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUD/USD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.19.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

GOLDUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.20.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near all-time highs as global market sentiment remains cautious. Today, several high-impact USD news events could influence gold prices. US President Donald Trump’s speech at the FII Priority Summit in Miami may provide insights into economic policies that could impact the dollar’s strength. Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Philip Jefferson's speech on household balance sheets and initial jobless claims data will shape expectations for future interest rate decisions. If the Federal Reserve adopts a hawkish tone, gold could face downward pressure due to a stronger USD. Conversely, weaker jobless claims or a dovish Fed stance could support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Traders should also monitor the Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey, which may offer clues about US economic conditions, further impacting gold's direction.


Price Action:
The GOLDUSD H4 chart exhibits a strong bullish trend, with prices moving within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands. Despite minor retracements, the price remains within an upward structure, suggesting ongoing buyer dominance. A key observation is that the recent pullback has been shallow, indicating that bulls still control the market. If the price sustains above the middle Bollinger Band, further upside movement is likely. However, a breakdown below this level may trigger a deeper correction.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price is currently moving between the middle and upper bands, attempting to reach the upper band again. The overall trend remains bullish, with gold maintaining its strength after breaking multiple all-time highs (ATHs) in recent months.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is hovering near 59, suggesting that the market remains in bullish territory but is not yet overbought. This indicates that there is still room for further price appreciation before reaching extreme levels.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is expanding, with the MACD line positioned above the signal line. This suggests increasing bullish momentum, reinforcing the strength of the uptrend. However, traders should watch for potential divergence, which could indicate a slowdown in momentum.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic indicator is currently around 42-44, moving out of the oversold region. If the %K line crosses above the %D line, it could confirm a bullish continuation, supporting a move toward higher resistance levels.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The first key support level is at $2,920, aligning with the middle Bollinger Band and a recent price consolidation area. A break below this level could see further downside toward $2,880.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at $2,950, which represents the recent high and upper Bollinger Band. A breakout above this level could lead to further gains toward $2,970 and beyond.


Conclusion and Consideration:
Gold remains in a strong uptrend, supported by bullish technical indicators and fundamental factors. With key USD news events today, traders should expect high volatility in the gold market. If the Federal Reserve signals a hawkish stance, gold could face some selling pressure due to a stronger USD. However, if economic concerns arise or jobless claims come in weaker than expected, gold may continue its bullish rally. Traders should closely monitor XAUUSD’s price action around the $2,920 support and $2,950 resistance levels for potential breakouts or pullbacks.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for XAU/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on XAUUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.20.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURNZD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.24.2025




Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The EURNZD pair is experiencing market volatility as traders react to key economic data from both the Eurozone and New Zealand. The IFO Business Climate Index from Germany, a leading indicator of economic sentiment, is expected to provide insights into the strength of the European economy. A better-than-expected reading could boost the Euro (EUR), while a weaker-than-expected outcome may pressure the currency. Additionally, the upcoming Core CPI and CPI reports from the Eurozone will significantly impact inflation expectations and influence the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy outlook.
On the New Zealand dollar (NZD) side, recent Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales reports reflect consumer spending trends. Since these are lagging indicators, their impact may be limited unless there is a significant deviation from expectations. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continues to monitor inflationary pressures, and upcoming credit card spending data will provide further clues on consumer activity. If the data signals a robust retail environment, the NZD may gain strength.


Price Action:
The EURNZD pair has been in a downward channel since reaching a peak in mid-February. However, the last four candles have been bullish, indicating a potential short-term reversal or correction. The price has swiftly moved from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper band, breaking through the middle band in a single strong bullish move. Additionally, the EUR NZD price is currently testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which serves as a key decision point for traders. If buyers maintain momentum, the next resistance level could be challenged. Conversely, if selling pressure resumes, the downtrend may continue.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The EURNZD price has moved from the lower Bollinger Band to the upper band, signaling increased volatility and a potential breakout from the bearish channel. Despite the overall downtrend, this sudden price spike suggests that bulls are regaining some control. If the price holds above the middle band, further bullish movement could be expected.
Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch 5,3,3): The Stochastic Oscillator is currently near the 75-80 zone, indicating that momentum has shifted towards the bulls. This suggests that the EUR/NZD pair might enter overbought territory soon. However, if the %K and %D lines cross downwards from these levels, a potential pullback may occur.
Awesome Oscillator (AO): The AO histogram has transitioned from deep red to light blue, indicating weakening bearish momentum. While the histogram remains negative, the current trend suggests that bullish pressure is increasing. If the AO crosses above the zero line, it would confirm a stronger upside move.


Support and Resistance Levels:
Support: The nearest support level is at 1.8180, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and recent lows. If the EURNZD price breaks below this level, further downside movement could follow.
Resistance: The immediate resistance is at 1.8290, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A successful breakout above this level could lead to a test of 1.8330 (61.8% Fibonacci level).


Conclusion and Consideration:
The EURNZD H4 chart analysis suggests a potential short-term bullish correction within a broader downtrend channel. The recent bullish momentum, reflected in Bollinger Bands, Stochastic Oscillator, and AO, highlights a possible upside continuation if resistance levels are broken. However, traders should remain cautious as the overall trend remains bearish unless a significant breakout occurs. Key fundamental factors, including IFO Business Climate Index, CPI data from the Eurozone, and New Zealand’s retail sales, could drive volatility in the EUR-NZD pair. Traders should closely monitor these reports, as unexpected economic data could shift market sentiment rapidly.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/NZD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURNZD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.24.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USDJPY H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 02.25.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USD/JPY pair is expected to experience volatility today due to multiple speeches from Federal Reserve (FOMC) officials. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will speak on economic conditions, potentially providing insights into future monetary policy. If their tone is hawkish, the USD could strengthen, putting upward pressure on the USD-JPY pair. Additionally, key US data, including housing prices and consumer confidence figures, could influence market sentiment. On the Japanese Yen side, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has released the Corporate Services Price Index (CSPI), an important inflation indicator. Stronger-than-expected data may lead to JPY appreciation, reinforcing the bearish trend in USD vs JPY. However, if the data is weak, expectations of continued BoJ dovish policy could weaken the yen. Traders should remain cautious as market volatility is likely to increase throughout the session.


Price Action:
The USDJPY pair continues to trade within a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing a key support zone at 149.300 - 148.800, which has historically provided significant buying interest. The recent price action suggests an attempt at a bounce, but Resistance Line 1 (150.500 - 150.800) is capping the upside. If the price fails to break above Resistance Line 1, further downside pressure could push the pair below 148.800, confirming a continuation of the bearish trend. However, if buyers gain control and break through Resistance Line 1, the next key level to watch is Resistance Line 2 (152.800), which aligns with the long-term descending trendline. Should the price successfully breach both resistance levels, upside targets include FE 61.8% at 152.900 and FE 100% at 153.800. Until a confirmed breakout occurs, the trend remains bearish.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The last three dots are below the price, signaling a potential shift in momentum toward the upside. However, a break above Resistance Line 1 is necessary to confirm a reversal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is currently at 39.93, indicating that the pair remains in bearish territory. Although it is not yet oversold, a move above 50 would suggest a weakening downtrend and potential bullish momentum.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram remains negative, and the MACD line is below the signal line, confirming that bearish momentum is still in play. A bullish crossover is needed for signs of trend reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator is at 81.27, placing it in the overbought zone. This suggests that the recent price bounce may be short-lived and that further selling pressure could emerge. A bearish crossover would reinforce the downtrend.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 149.300 - 148.800, which represents a significant historical level. If this zone fails to hold, the next key support is 148.315, potentially triggering further downside movement.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 150.500 - 150.800 (Resistance Line 1), a key short-term barrier. A break above this level would indicate bullish momentum. The next major resistance is at 152.800 (Resistance Line 2), which must be breached for a full trend reversal. Additional upside targets include FE 61.8% at 152.900 and FE 100% at 53.800.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD/JPY pair remains in a strong downtrend, currently testing a crucial support zone at 149.300 - 148.800. If the price fails to break above Resistance Line 1 (150.500 - 150.800), the bearish trend is likely to continue, potentially pushing the price below 148.800. However, if buyers manage to break above Resistance Line 1, a short-term recovery could be in play, with the next major test at Resistance Line 2 (152.800). With multiple FOMC speeches and key US economic releases scheduled today, traders should prepare for potential market volatility. A hawkish Fed stance could strengthen the USD, while strong JPY fundamentals could keep the pair under selling pressure. Monitoring RSI, MACD, and support/resistance levels will be crucial for confirming the next move.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/JPY is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDJPY. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
02.25.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

BTCUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.03.2025




Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
Bitcoin (BTC) remains sensitive to broad macroeconomic factors and investor sentiment, as the cryptocurrency market shows steady institutional and retail interest. In today’s session, the focus will be on the USD side of the BTCUSD pair, with multiple economic releases such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending, and the Wards Auto data. Positive US data can strengthen the dollar, potentially pressuring BTC if risk appetite wanes. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s fundamental drivers include ongoing discussions about its upcoming halving cycle and overall adoption trends, which continue to shape the long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency.


Price Action:
Over the weekend, BTCUSD showed a notable correction, moving from 78k to 92k on the H4 chart but failing to break above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. This inability to push higher suggests that bullish momentum may be pausing, and the pair could revisit the 38.2% or 23.6% Fib levels if downside pressure intensifies. Price action has temporarily stalled near the upper Bollinger Band, indicating that immediate upside might be capped. Traders are watching closely for any bearish follow-through that could send the price back toward the 0% Fib level in the coming sessions.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on the BTCUSD H4 chart show that the price has recently touched the upper band, signaling a potential overextension. Historically, price retracements often follow upper band touches, especially if accompanied by lower volume or weakening momentum. A break back toward the middle band would indicate a corrective phase, aligning with the possibility of retesting lower Fibonacci levels. Should volatility increase, a close outside the bands could confirm a more decisive breakout or breakdown.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI appears to be hovering near the upper threshold of neutral territory, reflecting neither extreme overbought nor oversold conditions. This position suggests that while bullish momentum was strong enough to push BTCUSD to 92k, it did not hit a level typically associated with a clear reversal. A downturn in the RSI below the midpoint would reinforce a potential bearish pullback. Conversely, a sustained move above 70 would indicate strong bullish pressure and might invalidate the short-term corrective bias.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is currently positive, showing that the MACD line remains above the signal line, indicative of ongoing bullish momentum. However, the histogram bars have started to shorten, suggesting a possible slowdown in buying pressure. If the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it would be an early sign of bearish momentum gaining traction. Traders should monitor this indicator closely for confirmation of any trend shift on the H4 timeframe.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, offering the first defense for the bulls. A deeper support can be found near the 0% Fib level, which could become a target if selling pressure intensifies.
Resistance: The nearest resistance lies just above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level around the 92k region. A break above this zone may expose further resistance near the 95k handle, a region of previous price consolidation.


Conclusion and Consideration:
In this technical and fundamental chart daily analysis for BTCUSD H4, the current price action suggests a cautious stance is warranted. While the bullish momentum brought Bitcoin’s price from 78k to 92k, the failure to clear the 50% Fib level points to a potential pullback. Key economic data from the US could drive volatility for BTCUSD, as shifts in risk sentiment often impact the cryptocurrency market. Traders should keep a close eye on the Bollinger Bands, RSI, and MACD for clearer directional cues, alongside upcoming US economic releases that may influence the dollar side of the pair.



Disclaimer: The analysis provided for BTC/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on BTCUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.03.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

AUDUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.04.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The AUDUSD pair remains under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens ahead of key events today. The Federal Reserve’s (FOMC) Williams is scheduled to speak, which could provide insights into future monetary policy directions, potentially impacting USD volatility. Additionally, the RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism Index is expected to show improvement, reinforcing USD strength.
On the Australian Dollar (AUD) side, the market will closely monitor the RBA Deputy Governor Hauser’s speech, as any hawkish remarks could support AUD. Furthermore, key data releases such as the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes, Retail Sales (forecast 0.3% vs. previous -0.1%), and Current Account (-11.8B vs. -14.1B) could impact AUD’s short-term trajectory. Should retail sales exceed expectations, we may see a temporary boost in AUD, but bearish sentiment prevails given current technical conditions.


Price Action:
The AUDUSD pair has been in a sharp bearish phase, trading within the lower Bollinger Band before entering a correction phase. This corrective movement led the price back toward the midline of the Bollinger Bands, assisting the RSI in recovering from oversold conditions. However, after testing the midline resistance, the pair has resumed its bearish wave, reflecting persistent downward momentum. The MACD indicator also suggests a continuation of the downtrend, as the histogram remains in negative territory with bearish divergence strengthening.


Key Technical Indicators:
Bollinger Bands: The price initially declined sharply, remaining near the lower band before attempting a recovery. The midline acted as resistance, rejecting further upside and resuming the bearish wave. The continued expansion of the bands indicates high volatility, favoring further downside movement.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains below the signal line, with a bearish histogram indicating ongoing selling pressure. This setup suggests that the bearish trend could persist unless a bullish crossover occurs.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI rebounded from oversold territory but is now struggling near 36.83, still indicating weak momentum. If the RSI moves below 30, it could signal further selling pressure and potential downside continuation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: The AUDUSD pair faces key resistance levels at 0.62530, aligning with the midline of the Bollinger Bands, followed by 0.62350, marking a recent swing high, and 0.62300, a psychological level that previously acted as support but has now turned into resistance.
Resistance: On the downside, immediate support is seen at 0.61700, reflecting recent lows, followed by 0.61400, a stronger historical level, and 0.61150, which serves as a major support zone; a break below this level could trigger further downside momentum.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The AUDUSD H4 analysis indicates that the pair remains in a strong bearish trend, with technical indicators such as the MACD, RSI, and Bollinger Bands aligning for further downside movement. The rejection from the Bollinger Band’s midline confirms ongoing selling pressure, while the MACD histogram remains negative, reinforcing bearish momentum. Traders should watch for potential volatility due to upcoming USD and AUD economic releases, especially the FOMC speech and Australian Retail Sales data. If AUD fundamentals disappoint, the pair could retest 0.61700 and potentially lower support levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for AUD/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on AUDUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.04.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

USDCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis – 03.05.2025




Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The USDCHF currency pair is currently being influenced by key economic releases from both the US and Switzerland. Today, the Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released, providing insights into inflation trends. A higher-than-expected CPI figure may strengthen the Swiss Franc (CHF) as it could lead to a more hawkish stance from the Swiss National Bank (SNB). Conversely, a weaker CPI reading could put pressure on the CHF, allowing USDCHF to rebound. For the US Dollar (USD), several high-impact events are scheduled, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, and a speech by US President Donald Trump. The ADP employment report serves as an early indicator of the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data, and strong job growth figures could support the USD. Additionally, the ISM Services PMI will gauge the strength of the US service sector, and Trump's speech could bring unexpected volatility depending on any policy announcements. Traders should be cautious of potential price fluctuations due to these scheduled events.


Price Action:
The USD/CHF pair has reached a major support zone at 0.8890, which coincides with the 40% Fibonacci retracement level, a descending trendline support, and a previous horizontal support level. The price briefly dipped below this level but showed signs of buying interest, suggesting a possible reversal. If buyers step in, the pair could target the next Fibonacci level and descending resistance trendline at 0.8960 - 0.9000. However, if the price breaks below 0.8865, it could trigger further downside momentum, potentially leading to new lows.


Key Technical Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is currently at 29.16, indicating oversold conditions. This suggests that the selling pressure might be weakening, and a potential reversal could be near. However, a confirmation through price action is needed before entering long positions.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is negative at -0.002211, with the MACD line below the signal line, indicating bearish momentum. However, the decreasing bearish momentum suggests that selling pressure is slowing down. A bullish crossover of the MACD line above the signal line would strengthen the case for a reversal.
Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic (5,3,3) is at 27.11, approaching oversold levels. This suggests that the downward momentum is fading, and a bullish crossover in the oscillator would be a strong indication of an upward correction. Traders should watch for a crossover above the 20 level for confirmation.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.8890, which aligns with the 40% Fibonacci retracement level, descending trendline support, and previous horizontal support. A break below this level could open the door for further downside toward 0.8865.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.8960, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level and a descending resistance trendline. If bullish momentum continues, the next major resistance lies at 0.9000, which is a key psychological level and a trendline resistance zone.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The USD-CHF pair on the H4 timeframe is currently testing a strong support zone at 0.8890, with multiple technical confluences suggesting a potential bullish reversal. RSI and Stochastic indicate oversold conditions, while MACD shows weakening bearish momentum, which supports the possibility of an upward correction. If the price holds above 0.8890, traders can look for a rebound toward 0.8960 and 0.9000 as potential resistance levels. However, a break below 0.8865 could indicate further downside continuation. With high-impact economic events such as Swiss CPI, US ADP employment data, and ISM Services PMI, traders should expect increased volatility. Trump's speech could also introduce unexpected market movements, making it crucial to manage risk appropriately. Waiting for confirmation through price action signals before entering trades is advisable.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for USD/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on USDCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.05.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURUSD Daily Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.07.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
EUR/USD is currently influenced by several high-impact events, including Europe’s new purchase orders data and foreign trade figures, as well as a scheduled speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde. Traders are closely monitoring Euro area Employment and GDP releases for additional insight into the region’s economic strength. Meanwhile, the US Dollar faces potential volatility from multiple Federal Reserve (FOMC) member speeches and labor market data (NFP, Unemployment Rate), which could shape market sentiment on monetary policy. Overall, these EUR USD daily chart technical and fundamental analysis factors suggest heightened price action and possible shifts in momentum on the H4 timeframe.


Price Action
The EUR USD H4 chart shows a strong initial upswing since the market opened this week, followed by three consecutive red candles indicating a possible correction. If the bearish movement extends, price action may test the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement, with potential deeper pullbacks toward the 50% and 61.8% levels. This EURUSD daily technical analysis suggests traders should monitor these key retracement zones for signs of reversal or continuation, as the pair’s momentum could shift rapidly in response to ongoing fundamental developments.


Key Technical Indicators
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI has moved near overbought territory following the recent sharp rally, signaling that the bullish momentum may be losing steam. With the last three bearish candles, RSI is gradually easing, suggesting a potential cooldown in buying pressure. However, a sustained move below the 50 mark could confirm a deeper correction for EURUSD price action.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains above the signal line, reflecting the recent bullish surge on the EUR-USD H4 chart. Nonetheless, the histogram is starting to narrow, indicating that upward momentum may be slowing. A crossover below the signal line could reinforce a short-term bearish correction scenario.
Stochastic Oscillator: Stochastic readings are hovering in high territory, supporting the notion that EUR USD could be ripe for a pullback. The oscillator’s downward slope from overbought levels suggests a likely pause in the bullish trend. A clear break below the 80 line often points to growing bearish pressure.


Support and Resistance
Support: The support zone, defined by the 23.6%, 50%, and 61.8% Fibonacci levels at 1.0680, 1.0640, and 1.0600 respectively, forms a layered cushion where buyers may step in during corrections. A bounce off these levels would reinforce bullish sentiment, while a break could signal a shift toward stronger bearish momentum.
Resistance: Resistance is observed at 1.0750, the recent swing high, and at 1.0800, a key psychological barrier, where selling pressure has previously emerged. A successful break above these levels could validate further bullish momentum, whereas failure to breach them may lead to profit taking and a potential retracement.


Conclusion and Consideration
EUR/USD appears poised for a potential corrective move on the H4 chart, with fundamental news and technical signals aligning to indicate caution. Traders should keep an eye on key Fibonacci levels, as well as RSI, MACD, and Stochastic Oscillator readings for confirmation of further downside or a bullish continuation. The upcoming Eurozone data and multiple US FOMC statements could amplify market volatility, so monitoring both technical and fundamental factors is essential.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.07.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURCHF H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.10.2025





Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The EURCHF currency pair will be influenced by multiple forthcoming economic reports and events. On the Euro (EUR) side, market participants await the Destatis data releases on industrial production and trade balance (slated for April 7, 2025), as well as the Eurogroup meeting on April 11, 2025. Stronger-than-forecast figures could boost the EUR, while cautious commentary from Eurozone officials could dampen sentiment. Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) reacts to SECO’s consumer climate data (due April 10, 2025); a better-than-expected reading may fortify the CHF, potentially adding downside pressure on EURCHF.


Price Action
On the H4 chart, EURCHF broke above a key resistance near 0.9523 and is now retesting this region as potential support. The pair is hovering around the middle Bollinger Band, which can act as a dynamic support. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, implying lower volatility prior to a probable expansion. If price action respects the 0.9523 level, the uptrend may continue, whereas a clear break below it could signal a deeper pullback.


Key Technical Indicators
Bollinger Bands: The Bollinger Bands on EURCHFH4 have been tightening, typically a precursor to a volatility surge. Price is testing the middle band, indicating a support zone that may help sustain the recent breakout. A move above the upper band could confirm bullish momentum continuation.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently around 54, the RSI signals moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. This leaves room for additional upside, though a drop below the 50 mark would hint at weakening bullish interest and an increased chance of further correction.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD line remains above the signal line, albeit with a contracting histogram. While this setup still leans bullish, diminishing momentum points to a possibility of a short-term retracement. Traders should watch for a bearish crossover to confirm any deeper pullback.
Williams %R (Williams Percent Range) Hovering near oversold conditions (around -90), Williams %R suggests that selling pressure could be losing steam. A climb above -80 would indicate a shift back into bullish territory, aligning with a potential resumption of the uptrend.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 0.9523, which aligns with a recently broken resistance level and the middle Bollinger Band.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 0.9600, which corresponds to a minor psychological barrier and recent swing high.


Conclusion and Consideration
The EURCHFH4 technical and fundamental chart daily analysis points to a cautiously bullish outlook, contingent on the 0.9523 support zone holding firm. Key technical indicators, including Bollinger Bands, RSI, MACD, and Williams %R, suggest that the uptrend could continue if buyers defend this level. However, traders should closely monitor upcoming Eurozone (Destatis, Eurogroup) and Swiss (SECO) data releases, as unexpected readings may trigger volatility and alter EURCHF’s price action.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/CHF is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURCHF. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.10.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

GBP/USD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.12.2025



Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis:
The GBP-USD currency pair is currently influenced by key economic indicators from the US and UK. Today, traders are focusing on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which plays a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. A higher-than-expected CPI reading could strengthen the USD as it may push the Fed towards maintaining or increasing interest rates. Additionally, the US Crude Oil Inventories report will provide insight into energy price trends, which indirectly impact inflation expectations and the USD’s movement. From the UK side, no major economic events are scheduled today, leaving the GBP vulnerable to USD-driven volatility. However, ongoing discussions regarding fiscal policies and global economic uncertainty may influence market sentiment.


Price Action:
The GBP/USD H4 chart analysis shows that the pair is approaching a significant resistance level around 1.2934 - 1.3000. The bullish momentum appears to be fading, as evidenced by a bearish divergence forming on the RSI and MACD indicators. Over the past sessions, price action has shown a consistent upward trend, but the slowing momentum suggests a potential correction. If the price fails to break the resistance, it may retrace toward the nearest support levels at 1.2706 or the ascending trendline. A potential breakout above 1.3000 could drive further gains, but considering the overextended bullish move and weakening momentum, a retracement seems more probable.


Key Technical Indicators:
Parabolic SAR: The last three dots of the Parabolic SAR are below the price, confirming an ongoing uptrend. However, if the dots flip above the price, it would signal a potential reversal or consolidation phase.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): A divergence can be seen between price and RSI, as the price makes higher highs while RSI moves lower. This indicates weakening bullish momentum and an increasing possibility of a price correction. Additionally, the RSI is near the overbought zone (65.59), suggesting limited upside potential.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD histogram is declining, and the signal line is converging with the MACD line, hinting at a weakening bullish trend. A bearish crossover could indicate a reversal or a deeper pullback.
Standard Deviation Oscillator: The standard deviation oscillator shows a decrease in volatility, indicating reduced momentum. This aligns with the observation that price action is struggling to break resistance, increasing the likelihood of a corrective move.


Support and Resistance:
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.2706, which aligns with the ascending trendline and previous price consolidation area.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.2934 - 1.3000, which coincides with recent highs and the upper boundary of the trend.


Conclusion and Consideration:
The GBP Vs. USD pair on the H4 chart shows sustained bullish momentum, but technical indicators signal a potential slowdown. The RSI divergence, declining MACD momentum, and reduced volatility indicate that a correction could be imminent. Traders should watch for confirmation of a bearish reversal, especially if the price fails to break 1.3000. A retracement toward 1.2706 is possible if selling pressure increases. Given the importance of today’s US CPI release, market volatility may surge, influencing the pair’s direction. Traders should stay cautious and incorporate risk management strategies while trading around key levels.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for GBP/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on GBP-USD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.12.2025

 

[FXGLORY]

EURUSD H4 Technical and Fundamental Analysis for 03.13.2025

Time Zone: GMT +2
Time Frame: 4 Hours (H4)


Fundamental Analysis
The EURUSD currency pair may see increased volatility today due to Eurozone data (Unemployment, Industrial Production) and a panel discussion featuring Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel, which could bolster or weigh on the EUR. Meanwhile, the USD faces multiple releases (Core PPI, PPI, Jobless Claims, Natural Gas Storage, and a 30-year Treasury Auction), offering insights into inflation and labor conditions. These events collectively shape the near-term outlook for EURUSD H4, highlighting the importance of both fundamental chart daily analysis and price action for traders.


Price Action
EURUSD has been in a clear bullish trend since early March, with higher highs and higher lows supported by an ascending trendline. Despite minor consolidation in recent candles, the overall momentum remains positive. Pullbacks toward the trendline may present buying opportunities, as long as price action holds above key support levels.


Key Technical Indicators
Moving Averages (MA 9 and MA 17): The 9-period short MA has crossed above the 17-period long MA, confirming bullish momentum. The long MA sits below recent candles, and the short MA is close to price action, suggesting ongoing upside strength.
Stochastic Indicator: The Stochastic is near overbought territory, hinting at a possible short-term pullback. If it crosses below mid-levels, a deeper correction could emerge, but the broader trend remains bullish as long as it stays above 50.
Volume: Volume has aligned with the recent upward movement, indicating strong buying interest. Slight dips during consolidations are normal, but overall volume supports the bullish trend, especially on rallies.


Support and Resistance
Support: Immediate support is located at 1.0980, which aligns with the ascending trendline.
Resistance: The nearest resistance level is at 1.1060, which coincides with a recent swing high.


Conclusion and Consideration
The EURUSD H4 chart shows persistent bullish momentum, underpinned by favorable fundamentals and positive technical indicators. While short-term pullbacks may occur—especially if the Stochastic continues to retreat—price action remains constructive above the rising trendline. Traders should keep an eye on today’s Eurozone and US releases for potential market-moving surprises, particularly regarding inflation and labor-market data.


Disclaimer: The analysis provided for EUR/USD is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Traders are encouraged to perform their own analysis and research before making any trading decisions on EURUSD. Market conditions can change quickly, so staying informed with the latest data is essential.


FXGlory
03.13.2025