Fort Financial Services - fundamental and technical analysis

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

18.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD has been in the positive area for three trading days in a row. At this time the quotations growth was after the US April PPI weak data. The report points out that it is quite early to talk about the inflationary pressure growth in the world leading economy now.

During the day the pair GBP/USD also showed more modest growth because of the EUR/GBP correction and a consolidation as well as the investors’ concerns about the Bank of England inflation and GDP forecasts.

At the end of the day the pair USD/JPY has strengthened amid the US stock market strong growth as well as the US and Japan negative bond yields increase. The pair fell and closed the trades neutrally.

It should also be noted that investors have negative attitude towards the US dollar and actively get rid of it – yesterday the dollar index basket (USDX) consolidated below the 94th figure. Still, we expect profit-taking on the long positions amid the US industrial production moderately positive data for April.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The German 10-year bond yields are growing relative to the US and the UK counterparts which may support the demand for the euro. The commodity market dynamics is also playing against the US dollar now. The commodities quotations growth has a negative impact on the dollar as the cost of raw materials was denominated in the US dollar during the dollar prices growth.

Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.1260, the price corrected to this level to check it for strength. Now this resistance is playing the role of a reference support now. Then the pair tested the resistance level of 1.1450.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen the Kijun-sen show aт upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1450 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1675 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK 10-year bond yields are close to the level of 2% now which may support the demand for the pound. The average earnings growth and the oil market upward trend with the unemployment decline to 5.5% can allow us to count on inflation in the short term and these expectations are pushing the pair upwards.

The British pound is actively strengthening against the US dollar. Almost without correction the price rose up sharply, having reached the level of 1.5775.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5670, the next one is 1.5550. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5775, the next one is at 1.5950.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow. After breaking 1.5775 the buyers may go to 1.5950.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Bullish sentiments in the US stock market with the US and Japan bond yields increase will support demand for the pair USD/JPY. On the other hand, investors sell the US dollar along the entire market which cannot allow us to count on the strong dollar growth.

The price is finding the first support at 118.30, the next one is at 117.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 119.20, the next one is at 120.40.

There is a non-confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 119.20, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential targets are 118.30 and 117.50.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar slightly strengthened its position against the franc after the published data showed that US initial jobless claims for the last week amounted to 264K against forecasted 273K. The index was near 15-years low that indicates the labor market positive trends.

The price is finding the support at 0.9060. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9160, the next one is at 0.9280.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short. When the pair consolidates below the level of 0.9160, we can open deals to the level of 0.9060.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

19.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was supported - the dollar index basket (USX) finished the trading day at the mark of 93.29. The pair EUR/USD increased after the US industrial production and consumer confidence weak macroeconomic statistics publication from the University of Michigan. At the end of the day the pair decreased.

The pair GBP/USD finished the trading day in the negative territory - quotations declined amid the profit taking on the long positions after the eight- days’ quotations growth.

The winner in the bears and the bulls’ dispute within the pair USD/JPY were the bulls. The upward trend in the world leading stock markets is supported by the dollar demand and at the moment quotations reached the mark of 119.95, but after the US negative reports the Japanese yen was able to recover lost ground. Then the pair grew again.

Taking into account the US industrial production and consumer confidence negative macroeconomic statistics– we cannot count on the US dollar strong growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Michigan University negative release suggests that Americans are inclined to save more than spend and this is a negative factor for the economy.

In the light of this the US the Germany negative bond yields continued to decline which supports the demand for the euro. Moreover, the Germany and the UK bond yields also significantly declined which would contribute to the pair EUR/GBP cross-rate growth and may also support the euro against the dollar.

The upward trend is still preserved despite the divergence formation on the trading volumes. Having broken through the resistance level of 1.1260, the price tested the level of 1.1450. Then the pair rebounded downwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260, 1.1150

Pound (GBP)

General overview

Great Britain and the United States will not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases. In view of the debt market negative dynamics (the UK and the US negative bond yields increase) it was noted the bearish sentiment predominance. At the same time the commodity market dynamics may put pressure on the US dollar as the commodity goods growth causes the dollar decline.

Having tested the level of 1.5775, the British pound turned downwards towards correction. The support level of 1.5670 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

After the trend line 1.5670 breakthrough down the way to the support 1.5550 will be opened. The upward bounce potential target is 1.5775.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the March machinery and equipment orders report: the base value amounted to + 2.9% for the month and + 2.6% for the year. The commodity market positive dynamics will put pressure on the US dollar.

The pair tested the level of 119.20 and rebounded upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 119.20, the next one is at 118.30. The price is finding the first resistance at 120.40, the next one is at 121.60.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 120.40 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 119.20, 118.30.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

20.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened to its major competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 94.31. Traders took profits on the short positions within the US dollar which caused the dollar growth.

The United States can please traders with the construction sector positive data.

The mortgage rate reduction may have a positive impact on the number of issued building permits. However, the Conference Board consumer confidence negative report pointed out that we should not count on the strong deviation from the consensus forecast in a positive direction.

The Consumer Comfort Index, considered by Bloomberg, fell to 43.5 for the week (4-10 May) that is the lowest level since the beginning of March) against 43.7 the previous week. The US economy assessment fell to the five-month low, confidence also fell among the full-time and part-time employed. Retail sales have changed little in April after decrease by 0.2% from January to March. The US economic prospects index fell to 34.5 (the lowest level since mid-December) from 35.8 the previous week.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

There was the euro sales yesterday, still it is too early to talk about the changes within the short-term trend. The euro devaluation with the ECB loose monetary policy strengthened the German exporters’ position which had a positive effect on the Old World leading economies. In this connection, we expected the institute ZEW business climate output slightly better than the forecasted medians that will support the demand for the euro. Nevertheless the release came out worse then the forecasted medians.

The level of 1.1260 breakthrough signals about the upward trend reversal. The support level of 1.1150 was broken.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The sellers need to break below 1.1050 for a steady decrease. The way to the mark 1.0925 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The National Statistics Office has published the UK April inflation report. The energy cost increase with the labor market positive trend points out to the consumer price index growth. But the negative data put the British pound under a pressure. The US construction sector moderately positive data may force some traders to take profits on the long positions.

The British pound is correcting against the US dollar amid the low volatility. The correctional price reduction was on the low volumes. There was the intermediate support level of 1.5550 breakthrough.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the support level of 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US stock market index S & P500 set a fresh historical high which supported the demand for the risky assets and had a positive impact on the pair USD/JPY quotations as investors used the yen as a funding currency to finance transactions within the high-yield instruments.

The trade within the Japanese yen is not clear. The pair was trading for a long time in the range, rebounding from the levels of 120.40 - 119.20. Yesterday the resistance level of 120.40 was broken upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 121.60 further on we expect a fall to 120.40, 119.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

21.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar strengthened significantly relative to its main competitors - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.46. The pair EUR/USD came under attack amid the ECB stimulating measures increase rumors. By the end of the day the pair euro/dollar had decreased.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was also under pressure amid the UK April weak inflation data. The CPI went into the negative territory for the first time since 1960 and against this background the trades ended with the quotations decrease despite a correction was observed earlier.

The bullish trends in the world's leading stock markets contributed to demand for the pair USD/JPY which by the end of the day had increased.

Taking in consideration the oil prices decline traders expected demand for the US dollar before the US Federal Reserve last meeting minutes publication. Bearing in mind the US low inflation expectations, we expected the "pigeon rhetoric" in the report and in this regard an upward rebound in the market.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The currency and the commodity markets’ sales with the US Treasury bond yields increase point out to the short-term trend reversal. During the day we noted the bearish sentiment predominance. Yesterday the ECB high-ranked official gave an interview in which he noted that the monetary regulator could increase the rates amid the summer time stimulating measures. Late in the evening the FOMC protocols were published.

The euro decline against the US dollar was followed by the support levels’ breakthrough: 1.1260 and 1.1050. The levels’ breakthroughs were on the increased volumes.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0925 soon.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was under pressure during the day. The CPI release showed the deflation for the first time since 1960. The Bank of England monetary policy minutes also do not promise dividends to the British pound- the monetary regulator has repeatedly stated about the deflation risks and also stated the fact that the strong pound had a negative impact on consumer prices.

The pound decline against the US dollar reached the strong support level of 1.5460. The pair rebounded upwards to 1.5550 and then it fell again.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the fall towards 1.5460 further on we expect a growth.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the GDP data for the first quarter. The GDP rose up by 0.6% in the first quarter and increased by 2.5% on the annual basis. The GDP rose up by 0.4% in the fourth quarter. The result was higher than the consensus forecast relative to the 0.4% growth on the quarterly basis.

Despite the fact that the trading volumes are still in the low zone, the buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the resistance level of 120.40.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, and form a “Golden Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 120.40, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 119.20.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

22.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was trading different directed - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.64. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD increased. Earlier the pair decreased amid the Germany and the US negative bond yields increase.

The Bank of England in its monetary policy last meeting minutes revised upwards the GDP forecast for the first half of the year which caused the profit-taking wave on the short positions within the pair GBP/USD which by the end of the day had increased.

The Japan GDP rose up by 0.6% in the first quarter which exceeded the traders’ expectations; however, this factor could not help the Japanese yen which was under pressure amid the carry trade transactions increase. By the end of the day the pair USD/JPY had increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The FOMC minutes publication did not bring any surprises - most of the members do not expect the Fed rate increase at the June meeting while in the case of the strong macroeconomic data the monetary point of view can be changed. It is worth noting that the credit market did not react to the report - the Treasury short-term and long-term bond yields have not practically changed in an hour after the data publication which points out to the expectations absence, concerning the monetary policy tightening in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1150 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1050, 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England monetary policy meeting minutes have supported the British pound amid the fact that the monetary regulator raised its GDP growth estimate for the first and the second quarters this year. Two MPC members were inclined to tighten the monetary policy, however, they voted in favor of its preservation in its present form. It is worth noting that the bond market has reacted negatively to this release - the long-term and the short term securities differential has increased which points out to the fact that the soft monetary policy will not be finished in the short term.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5550, the next one is 1.5460. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5670, the next one is at 1.5775.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 1.5670. The downward bounce potential target are 1.5550 and 1.5460.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japan GDP positive data for the first quarter were not able to support the national currency. Those days when traders ignored the fundamental data - we dealt with the strong short-term trend.

There was a correction, now we may expect the partial profit taking on the long positions on the Tokyo Stock Exchange which may add some pressure. However, this decline should be used to long as the upward trend is quite strong.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential growth target is the resistance level of 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has stabilized.

The FOMC long-awaited minutes did not bring any surprises and recorded that many committee members believe that the economic situation does not allow raising the rate in June.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

25.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

After three consecutive days quotations steady growth the US dollar was under slight pressure, but at the end of the week it increased against the majors. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.33. During the day the pair EUR/USD increased amid the German 10-year bond yields growth. Traders ignored even the Germany PMI manufacturing sector negative release which has been declining for the second month in a row. However the pair fell at the end of the trades.

The UK strong retail sales data for April contributed to the GBP/USD quotations growth which had increased. Nevertheless the pair decreased by the end of the day.

Correction in the Japanese stock market with the US secondary market housing sales negative report put pressure on the pair USD/JPY, but it had increased by the end of the day.

The US March labor market looked moderately negative. Average earnings increased by only 0.2% while the unemployment rate remained unchanged and only 85 thousand of job places were created in the private sector. The PPI index in April fell by 0.4%. In March the energy prices declined which also had a negative impact on the CPI.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We should pay attention to the IFO institute publication. Last week the ZEW and Markit Economics reports show the negative expectations for the German economy and in this regard we received the data output worse than the forecasted medians that will put pressure on the euro.

The United States published the inflation report that showed the CPI decrease to 0.1% from 0.2%.

The pair rebounded from the level of 1.1150 downwards and broke through the support level of 1.1050.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The downward movement will be continued. The pair may go to 1.0925 soon and then to the level of 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The IFO institute weak release may put pressure on the pair EUR/GBP which will give some support to the British pound. The US April inflation data is based on the leading indicators and did not disappoint GBP/USD bears.

On the other hand, we have observed the UK short-term and long-term bond yields increase on the debt market which is a negative factor for the national currency.

There was a rebound from the upward trend line of 1.5460 after the two-days consolidation. The price rebound was on the highest volume, but the pair grew to the resistance level of 1.5670. then the pair rebounded downwards and tested the support level of 1.5460.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy meeting results, but under the current conditions traders do not expect any surprises. The first GDP release for the first quarter pleased traders with the strong data a little bit. Secondly, the oil quotations growth has a positive impact on the inflation rates in the second quarter. We can expect the same volume incentive program from the monetary regulator.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can grow to the resistance level of 121.60. After breaking 121.60 the buyers may go to 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The frank fell against the dollar amid the head of the Fed, Ms. Yellen’s speech on Friday. She said that the FOMC is likely to consider the monetary tightening which would follow a rates raise. She also noted that the employment has not reached the goal yet.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is increasing.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9540. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9750.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

26.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar finished the last week on a positive note. The new week for the dollar also began with its consolidation. The core inflation indicator (Core CPI) came out 0.1% better than traders had expected which increased the demand for the US dollar. There has been the US trend reversal and during summer we may expect new USDX highs. Against this negative background the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD had decreased and consolidated by the end the day.

The Bank of Japan announced its monetary policy meeting results, still the market was not surprised. The stimulating base remained at the same level while the GDP forecast was raised up by 1% for the current year. At the moment the pair USD/JPY reached the level of 120.65, but after the US inflation data output bulls were able to bring the situation under control. As a result, the trading day ended with a slight correction after the quotations growth.

In this context, during this week we may expect the downtrend continuation. The previous day was marked by the calm trading amid the lack of important macroeconomic statistics publication as well as the banking weekend on the occasion of t he Germany, the UK and the US public holidays.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The market took positively the US dollar inflation release. The Core CPI index rose up by 0.1% to 1.8% on the annual basis while the CPI came out as it was expected in the negative area -0.2%. The US Treasury bond yields have increased that point out to the expectations about the Fed monetary policy changes.

After two days consolidation below the resistance level of 1.1150 the downward trend has been continued. Sellers have broken through and consolidated below the level of 1.1050 amid the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.0925, 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The liquidity was very low amid the UK and the US public holidays and in this regard, we had a horizontal trend.

Last week the British pound fell against the dollar by more than 200 points. The price reduction was on the high volume and led to the price output from the upward channel.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5550 for a steady growth. The way to the marks of 1.5670 and 1.5775 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japanese exporters felt confident enough in the first quarter and according to the April results, the low exchange rate indicates the positive trend continuation. Taking into account the profit taking on the long positions in the US stock market on Friday and the carry trade closing deals there was the AUD/JPY decrease. Given the fact that the US dollar bullish trend is gaining momentum – we should not count on the quotations strong decrease.

Buyers have tested and consolidated under the resistance level of 121.60. The level breakthrough was on the increased volume - bulls are now strong.

The price is finding the first support at 120.40, the next one is at 119.20. The price is finding the first resistance at 121.60, the next one is at 122.40.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is close to the strong resistance level of 121.60. If the pair breaks it we expect the growth to 122.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

27.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

There was a rather quiet trade in the Forex market at the beginning of the week. The France, Germany, Switzerland, the UK and the USA public holidays are to blame. Among the major financial centers trades took place only in Tokyo and Hong Kong, but the main revenue comes from London and New York that rested on Monday.

As a result, there was a horizontal trend within the major currency pairs, but even against this background, the US dollar enjoyed moderate demand which confirms the US dollar bullish trend strength. Traders returned to the market yesterday, and the dollar rose significantly against major currencies.

The United States pleased traders with the moderately positive macroeconomic statistics. The durable goods orders report came out within the forecasted medians amid the weak car sales in April and the durable goods orders index excluding equipment transportation that was expected slightly better than the consensus forecast amid the employment and average earnings growth.

Investors reacted positively to the April US Core CPI growth which increased by 1.6% to 1.8% on the annual basis from the beginning of the year. There were rumors again in the market that the Fed was going to raise interest rates at the next meetings.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The "Greek factor" once again stirs the euro-zone economy. Athens began to declare that they had no money for the June IMF tranche at the end of the last week. The debt market immediately reacted to this Greek bond yields increase relative to the German ones which also carries a risk for the single European currency.

The beginning of the week was calm amid the increased volumes and low volatility. The price reduced downwards through inertia. Then the pair decreased amid the dollar strengthening. There is not support from the sellers’ part. But due to the fact that the trade continues towards the downward channel bears are still strong.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We may expect the growth towards 1.1050 further on we expect a fall to 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was under pressure amid the US dollar global upward trend. It is worth noting that the rate of its decline will be less than the euro decrease. It is due to the fact that the EUR/GBP downward trend got some support for the British pound.

The pound broke through and consolidated below the support level of 1.5460. Trading volumes are in the decreased zone and the price is trading around 1.5390.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5390, the next one is 1.5300. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5460, the next one is at 1.5550.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the support 1.5390, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

It was noted the bullish sentiment predominance within the pair dollar/yen. All the key financial centers worked yesterday as usual and in this regard there was the upward trend continuation within the US dollar. Expectations about the federal funds rate increase reinforce the dollar bullish sentiment. Everything is quite simple: the Fed, unlike the Bank of Japan is set to tighten monetary policy which deprives the Japanese yen of trumps for the quotations growth.

The last six months there was a quite large-scale flat. The price was traded in the side corridor of 117.50 - 121.60 for a long time which was formed after the sharp price rise. Yesterday the pair showed a strong increase and broke through the resistance level of 122.30.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The pair is going upwards. As long as the price is trading in the upward channel buyers remain strong. The bulls’ target is the level of 124.30.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

28.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar continued its winning streak - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.37. Yesterday only the United States released a portion of macroeconomic statistics. The durable goods orders came out slightly worse than the forecasted medians while the Conference Board consumer confidence index exceeded the traders’ expectations. The US Treasuries short-term and long-term bond yields have been reduced after these statistics publication that encouraged bulls to long. As a result, the trading day the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD finished with the quotations decrease, the pair USD/JPY has increased.

According to the US Department of Commerce, the primary market home sales volume increased more than expected in April. According to the revised data, the index rose by 6.8% to the annual rate of 517,000 from the mark of 484,000 in March. According to the original data, economists had expected the primary market housing sales would increase to the level of 509,000 from 481,000 the previous month.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US and Germany 10-year government bonds yields increased which is a negative factor for the euro. The German and the Greek bond yields have also grown upwards.

Athens has already made it clear to its creditors that they cannot fulfill their obligations and the debt market dynamics signals to us that at the moment the compromise is not found.

The euro activity has been declining against the US dollar for the second week. The downward trend is developing amid the increased volumes - sellers are still dominant in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0790, the next one is 1.0670. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.0925, the next one is at 1.1050.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0925 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.1050, 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The United States and the United Kingdom did not please traders with the interesting macroeconomic releases and it is necessary to pay attention to the debt and commodity markets’ dynamics. The UK 10-year bond yields are declining in the bond market relative to their US and Germany counterparts which will put pressure on the British pound. Today the Britain will publish the WFP.

The downward trend has strengthened after the strong support level of 1.5390 breakthrough. Now the mark of 1.5390 serves as the strong resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5490.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5300 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound targets are the resistance levels of 1.5460, 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Bank of Japan monetary policy report was published, however, the market has already received all of the key benchmarks from the Japanese regulator. The pair dollar/yen came out from the two-month consolidation towards the main trend and the global demand for the US dollar indicates that this trend is not yet complete and will be continued. Investors remain focused on the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan bipolar monetary policy which support the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The pair can decrease to the resistance level of 123.50. After breaking 123.50 the sellers may go to 122.40 and 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

29.05.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was once again in demand but at the end of the day it lost some ground against the euro. The dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 97.44. Besides the UK GDP assessment and the number of the US jobless claims, there was not published any important macroeconomic statistics this day. Investors are still actively increasing long positions, getting rid of its main competitors. However the euro recovered some lost positions. The commodity market is also under pressure – the Brent crude fell below $ 63/barrel and set the four-week minimum.

The jobless claims report did not please traders with the positive data. The four-week average dropped significantly last week which with the Conference Board consumer confidence release allowed us to count on the data output a little bit better than the forecasted medians. Nevertheless, the date came out more then forecasted medians.

The Japanese yen quickly fell to the eight-year lows against the US dollar growth. According to the Bank of Japan April meeting minutes, the time allocated to achieve the two-percent inflation rate can be extended.


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

Nearly the whole week the euro finishes the trades in the "red zone". The pair slightly corrected yesterday however currently there are no factors that are capable to change the negative trend. The debt market dynamics is now clearly on the bears’ side. The German bond yields are declining relative to the US and the UK counterparts.

The downward trend was developing within the euro amid the increased volume that indicates that sellers are interested to reduce the price in the short term. Nevertheless the pair slightly increased.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.1050 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.1170, 1.1040.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We got the UK GDP assessment for the first quarter. The unemployment rate reduction with the private consumption and industrial production growth in March allows us to count on the data output within the forecasted medians. Besides the quarterly economic forecast, the Bank of England lowered the GDP growth rate for 2015. The index came out at the level of + 0.3% q/q + 2.4% y/y without revision.

Having broken the strong support level of 1.5465, the British pound continued its decline.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5490.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target is 1.5390. If the price falls it will get to 1.5300, 1.5200.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

This week the Japanese yen is the weakest of the main four currencies. The debt market dynamics indicates the Japan and the US bond yields increase which supported demand for the dollar. This week we received the US jobless claims moderately negative data publication.

The US dollar two weeks growth against the Japanese yen faced the resistance at the level of 124.30.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upwards movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease target is the resistance level of 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc is correcting after this week decline. Earlier the franc declined amid the dollar growth as many traders believe that this year the Fed still will resort to raising interest rates. Investors also monitor the situation in Spain and Greece.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9280.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

01.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

After the two-day growth the US dollar got under pressure. The USDX finished the last trading day at the mark of 97.14. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the short positions profit taking after the US jobless claims negative release. Now investors do not have a good alternative to the US dollar. We also cannot ignore the "black gold" market dynamics. The oil trading finished in the "green zone" amid the US inventories decline.

The UK GDP second assessment remains unchanged that at the moment put pressure on the pair GBP/USD which fell to the level of 1.5260 after which there was the short positions profit-taking that caused the technical rebound towards 1.5300. The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised in to the negative side.

The Japan weak April retail sales contributed to the pair USD/JPY growth which by the end of the day had increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

We pay attention to the US first quarter GDP publication. Taking into account this economic growth second assessment and the trade balance, industrial production and employment weak macroeconomic releases for March we expected the index revision downwards and the data output within the forecasted medians. The GDP decreased by 0,7%.

The euro corrective growth is not supported by volumes and it looks quite weak. Buyers have broken through the resistance of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1050. We do not exclude the falls to 1.0790.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK National Statistical Office kept the GDP assessment for the first quarter unchanged despite the Bank of England positive forecasts about the May monetary policy meeting results. It should also be noted that the export and the consumer spending indicators were revised into the negative side.

The downward trend is gradually losing its strength. In recent days we observe the reduced volatility in the market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5300, the next one is at 1.5390.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5390 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5200, 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published a block of important macroeconomic statistics where the April inflation data are standing apart. The unemployment reduction and the average earnings growth in March indicate the CPI increase. The Japanese 10-year bond yields decreased by seven basis points in April which does not allow us to count on the data output significantly better than the forecasted medians.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 123.50 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 122.40 and 121.60.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

After the US ambiguous economic data the US dollar corrected its achievements, but in general it remains positive.

Last week the initial jobless claims totaled 282k against the expected. 270k, but the unfinished home sales transactions totaled 3.4% in April against expected 0.9%.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a neutral territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

02.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar was declining amid the GDP second assessment first quarter weak data. The final figure was revised into the negative side to the level of 0.7%. In the light of this the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trades at the mark of 96.94. Besides the US weak data, the Germany positive statistics contributed to the quotations growth. Retail sales rose up by 1.7% in April that encouraged traders to long. Still ISM supported the dollar and the pair EUR/USD decreased by the end of the day.

The pair GBP/USD was under pressure amid the UK and the US negative bond yields increase, but after the US GDP weak data it was able to recover partially some lost ground. Nevertheless, the trades ended in the negative region- quotations have declined.

The Japan inflation and industrial production positive statistics did not bring the desired dividends to the Japanese yen. The powerful bullish trend within the pair USD/JPY pair is continued - according to the trades results, quotations have increased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro enjoyed a moderate demand amid the Germany inflation positive report. The moderate wage and the energy prices growth with the unemployment reduction point out to the inflationary pressure growth in the Old World leading economies. The PMI manufacturing revised index by the Markit Eurozone fell to the level of 52.2 in May against 52.3 the previous month. The analysts’ forecast was 52.3. The ISM manufacturing index showed a growth to the level of 52.8. The dollar strengthened amid this data.

The euro was correcting against the US dollar. The price growth is on the higher volumes. However the pair decreased to the support level of 1.0925.

The price is finding the first support at 1.0925, the next one is 1.0790. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1050, the next one is at 1.1150.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.0790 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.0670.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK PMI manufacturing index rose up to 52 in May compared with 51.9 the previous month and the forecast of 52.5.

The Bank of England in its monetary policy latest minutes pointed out that we should expect the UK GDP growth in the second quarter and therefore, we may count on the positive data output as industrial production is the cyclical economic indicator.

The two-week pound decline against the US dollar stopped at the support level of 1.5200.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5100, the next one is 1.4975. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5200, the next one is at 1.5300.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is falling.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5200 line break that will open the way for the buyers to 102.25, further then towards 102.70.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Last Friday we saw sales in the US and the Japanese stock market which indicates the lack of demand for the risky assets. The debt market also points to the upward trend completion: the US and Japan negative bond yields shows a decline. There was the positive manufacturing sector business activity report published from the ISM. This points out to the bullish sentiment prevalence.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level of 125.50., the next on is the level of 127.00

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

03.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The new trading week the US dollar began with a growth. However it fell yesterday - the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 97.51. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased. Earlier it showed a decrease amid the US ISM manufacturing sector positive report.

During the day the pair GBP/USD was under pressure after the UK manufacturing sector PMI weak data. Nevertheless, the trading day ended with the quotations increase. The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The US production sector ISM index positive data point out to the US economy recovery after recession in the first quarter which accelerated the pair USD/JPY growth. However the pair by the end of the day had decreased.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The Eurozone leading economies have already reported about the CPI growth by the end of May which may support the euro demand. On the other hand, we cannot ignore the debt market dynamics. The Greece and the Germany bond yields increase indicates the investors’ negative expectations about the "Greek question" decisions ‘perspectives.

This month Athens has to pay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF and the first payment is scheduled for the 5th of June.

The trading was around the level of 1.0925. Yesterday the euro sharply grew and broke through the resistance levels of 1.1050 and 1.1150

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a non-confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.1260 for a steady growth. The way to the mark 1.1460 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK manufacturing sector business climate indicator pointed out that the Bank of England was quite optimistic in their GDP estimates for the second quarter of this year. The construction sector PMI index was published the other day.

The Bank of England in its quarterly economic forecast, published in early May, pointed out to the real estate sector decline. However, according to the April data - the mortgage loans volume rose up to the mark of 42.1K that smoothes the negative picture.

The short-term consolidation above the support level of 1.5200 was followed by attempts of its breakthrough. On the volume sellers consolidated at the mark of 1.5200 but they did not break it downwards. The pair increased at the end of the trades and broke through the resistance level of 1.5300.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 1.5460 may lead to a price rebound down. The potential rebound targets are the support levels of 1.5300, 1.5200.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US ISM manufacturing sector business climate report points out to the industrial growth. There was noted the orders growth in the 11 sectors and the employment growth in 14 sectors, including the oil sector which in recent months has experienced hard times because of the energy low prices.

The resistance level of 124.30 did not stop the upward trend. The continuous consolidation below the level was followed by breakthrough. However the consolidation above the broken level was short-term and the pair fell below it.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a horizontal movement and the Kijun-sen shows an upward movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 123.50 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 122.40, further then towards 121.60.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

04.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar came under a sales wave – the dollar index basket (USDX) closed the trading day at the mark of 95.90. By the end of the day the pair EUR/USD had increased after the euro area inflation positive data as well as the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.

It was expected that the ADP employment report as well as the services sector ISM index will be able to please the traders with the positive data. However the services sector ISM index came out worse then forecasted median and the ADP employment report – better then it was expected. The ISM manufacturing sector business climate index points out to the US economy growth which will contribute to the dollar increase.

By the end of the day the pair GBP/USD had increased amid short positions profit taking after the UK PMI construction sector positive releases.

The pair USD/JPY set a fresh 12-year high near the mark of 125.05 and after that traders started to close long positions. However after a slight decrease as a result, the trading day ended with the quotations growth.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro has shown strong growth amid the positive expectations about "the Greek question" resolution.

The euro is supported by the number of factors. The German and the US government bond yields reduction. The Greece and Germany negative bond yields are also declining amid the positive expectations about the Greece agreement with its creditors. The US April trade balance report pleased investors with strong data.

The resistance level of 1.1150 breakthrough was followed by the euro active growth against the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.1450.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We pay attention to the Markit Economics services sector PMI index release. The current indicator is higher than the annual average which indicates this economic sector growth. However the data came out worse then forecasted medians.

The service sector ISM index negative data may contribute to the US Treasury bond yields decrease amid the US Federal Reserve monetary policy tightening expectations.

The pound two-week decline was followed by the correction formation. The corrective price increase was on the high volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 1.5300 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 1.5200, further then towards 1.5100.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The Japanese yen received fewer dividends of all majors. Investors are increasing their long positions on dips based on the uptrend continuation. The manufacturing sector ISM index points out to the positive dynamics continuation in a series of the US macro-economic reports.

The Japan and the US negative bond yields increase may put pressure on the Japanese yen.

Having consolidated for a short time below the support level of 124.30, the price returned above the level, breaking through it through down - top.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 125.50 for a steady growth.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

05.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The pair EUR/USD had increased amid the ECB inflation forecast revision for 2015. However it slightly fell by the end of the day.

On the contrary, the pair GBP/USD had decreased by the end of the day after the service sector PMI index weak data release when the pair fell to the lowest level this year that confirms the UK low economic growth. The pair fell after a strong growth. There was published the GDP growth forecast in the second quarter to the level of 0.7% according to the Bank of England last meeting minutes. The data about the managers’ mood in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors indicate that this indicator will be below the forecast level. It should also be noted that the Brent crude lost more than 2% amid the negative expectations for the OPEC summit.

The pair USD/JPY had increased amid the risky assets demand. The carry trade transactions again put pressure on the Japanese yen. The yen devaluation has a positive impact on Japanese exporters - in April industrial production increased by 1% while in May the manufacturing PMI rose above 50%.

The US initial jobless claims showed positive release. The May index fell to 8000 to 276 000. The forecast growth was 279,000.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The EUR/USD had renewed the maximums and formed a consolidation. The ECB raised this year inflation forecast by 0.3% which caused the Germany and the US negative bond yields reduction. In its turn, this factor will provide some support to the euro. However, as the day was not rich with important macroeconomic statistics the market showed some stabilization in anticipation of the Friday US labor market report.

The euro has been actively strengthening against the US dollar for three days amid the increased volumes. Having broken through the strong resistance level of 1.1260, buyers strengthened their positions. Nevertheless the pair fell to this level at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.1150 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.1050 and 1.0925.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The Bank of England announced the monetary policy meeting results. Traders did not expect any changes. The monetary regulator has repeatedly stated that it was ready to ease the monetary policy in case of the deflation risk, but now the situation is generally stable. During the first summer days the UK 10-year government bond yields showed an increase that point out to the UK inflation expectations growth.

The pound showed a strong growth but now we observe a slight decrease.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the decrease will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5300.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The pair USD/JPY is consolidating and closed the trades with a slight decrease. The Bank of Japan governor gave his speech which supported the Japanese yen. Mr. Kuroda noted the inflation expectations growth amid the wages and energy prices increase. The Japan 10-year bond yields have increased by 12 basis points for the last month.

The US dollar strong growth against the Japanese yen went into a prolonged consolidation.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.50. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50 and 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The Swiss franc has grown while the dollar has reached its minimum level for the week against the euro and suffered losses against several other major currencies after the ECB has kept its monetary policy unchanged while the German Bunds bond yields continued to grow. The dollar had strengthened only at the end of the trades.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to long with the first target - 0.9370. When the pair consolidates above the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9540.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

08.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

At the end of the last week the US dollar was able to recoup some lost positions - the dollar index basket (USDX) finished the trading day at the mark of 95.45. By the end of the day the pair EUR / USD had decreased amid the longs profit taking \ after the US jobless claims positive report. After the U report the Germany and the US negative bond yields showed a reversal which also points to the bearish sentiment prevalence for the euro. The Non-Farm showed 228K as a result the dollar strengthened.

On the contrary, the pair GBP / USD had increased amid the pair EUR/GBP quotations increase which contributed to demand for the British pound.

The pair USD / JPY had strengthened. The US stock market sales restrained bulls from the large number of long positions opening. The pair dynamics was affected by the Non-Farm report.


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The US May labor market report was last week main even that shall set this week movement direction. The non-farm payrolls came out better than the forecasted medians. The leading indicators point out to the Non-Farm at 228K.

The euro strong growth against the US dollar was stopped at the resistance level of 1.1375. The short-term level testing was followed by the active price rebound downwards on the increased volume.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1050, the next one is 1.0925. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1150, the next one is at 1.1260.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is declining.

Trading recommendations

We expect the return below the cloud, the first target might be the level of 1.0925. Otherwise the growth will be continued to 1.1260.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The monetary policy committee kept the asset purchases program in the amount of 375 billion pounds. The fall in consumer prices by 0.1% on an annualized ratio revived fears among investors about the Europe's third largest economy deflation. In these circumstances, we do not count on the monetary policy change and the interest rates raising before 2016.

The whole week the British pound was correcting against the US dollar towards the upward channel. The resistance level of 1.5350 was broken through.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5200, the next one is 1.5100. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement, the Tenkan-sen is directed downwards.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is decreasing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the falling will be continued. The price will fall towards 1.5100 soon.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The US Treasury short-term and long-term securities declined after the jobless claims positive release which with the US stock market reduction points out to the investors' expectations that the Fed may raise the interest rates this year. After the Non-farms positive report the pair has grown.

The Japanese yen upward trend is consolidating towards the levels’ side channels of 123.65 - 124.85. Despite the continuous consolidation, the bullish trend is still in force.

The price is finding the first support at 125.50, the next one is at 124.30. The price is finding the resistance at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are growing. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The indicator is decreasing.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The euro is in no hurry to leave the taken highs, preferring to trade above the ninth figure. Mixed US statistics, the European leaders’ willingness to work intensively with Greece and a modest increase in activity within the ECB QE keep the euro afloat, preventing the "bears" completely clean up the initiative in their hands.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9280. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9540, the next one is at 0.9750.

There is a confirmed and a weak buy signal. The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show are changing their course to upwards.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The indicator is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the growth will be continued and the price will reach 0.9540 soon.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

09.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Last Friday main event was the May US labor market report. All traders were looking forward to this release as it had to give an answer whether the US economy stood on the growth path after the first quarter recession or not and whether the Fed is going to raise the federal rates this year. It is worth noting that the data met the traders’ expectations who bet on the US dollar growth. The Non-Farm index came out at the level of 280 thousand, the average earnings increased by 0.3%. The US Treasury two-bond yields immediately increased to the level of 0.752%, having set a new maximum for the last four years. Against this background, the pairs EUR/USD and GBP/USD had decreased. However these pairs fell by the end of the day.

The Japan Central Bank foreign exchange reserves growth with the high level of Japanese securities purchases by foreign investors points out to the capital income into the country. Nevertheless the pair USD/JPY has decreased.

Germany published the industrial production report. It was expected that it might please the traders with the positive data amid the industrial orders growth. As a result the release showed a growth 0.9%m/m and 1.4% y/y.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro increased at the trades on Monday. Germany published the industrial production report. This index increased in April by 0.9% on the month basis after the revised decline by 0.4% in March. The increase was larger in April than it was forecasted by 0.5% and the highest increase in 2015.

We received the May US labor market report and it's time to sum up the outcomes. The private sector employment reached the level of 280 thousand that confirms the Fed forecast for the US economic recovery in the second quarter.

The price reduction from the resistance level of 1.1260 was followed by the support level of 1.1150 short-term breakthrough. However, buyers were able to buy out the price and return it above the mark of 1.1150. The resistance level of 1.1260 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a downward movement and form a “Dead cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

If the price fixates below the resistance level of 1.1260, it may continue the downward trend in the short term. The potential target is 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The US labor market positive report for May points out both to the economic growth as a whole and to the inflation increase in particular. Inflation expectations growth will contribute to the fact that investors will lay in their forecasts the monetary policy tightening by the Fed part which will support demand for the US dollar.

The pound downward trend has stopped at the round support level of 1.5200 for the second time. We noted a consolidation below the resistance level of 1.5300. Then the pair increased and broke through the resistance level of 1.5300 upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement, the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Dead Cross”.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5300 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go downwards to 1.5200.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the April payment balance report. The Japan Central Bank foreign exchange reserves growth with the high level of Japanese securities purchases by foreign investors points out to the capital income into the country which made it possible to rely on the positive data output. The data came out at the level of -146.4B. the forecast median was +153B.

The bullish trend is still quite strong and investors will build up long positions on dips. Buyers were able to break through and consolidate above the maximum of 124.30. The pair fixated above and tested the level of 125.50. the pair rebound downwards from this level.

The price is finding the first support at 124.30, the next one is at 123.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The approach to the level of 124.30 may lead to a price rebound upwards. The potential rebound target is the resistance level of 125.50.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

10.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

The US dollar is correcting. The dollar ended the day at the level of 95.29. The April trade balance and industrial production positive German statistics helped the pair to grow.

There was a negative trend in the securities market - the British bonds yield are reduced against the German ones and the USA Treasuries. In the light of this, the pound/dollar lost some positions. However, in late trade, the GBP/USD has managed to grow.

The January - March Japanese GDP was revised to the positive side and led to the dollar/yen decrease. The national currency devaluation affects positively the Japanese economy. These numbers show the highest positive growth since February.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The euro / dollar has been showing a high volatility since the summer beginning which may be related to the liquidity drop in the summer months. We have seen quite contradictory movements in major currency pairs in the last 2 weeks. The weak UK trade balance may support the cross-rate EUR/GBP which in turn will allow the pair EUR/USD to test the level of 1.1450.

The Friday's dollar growth was offset by the strong euro growth. Buyers not only managed to get out of the descending channel, but also to break through two resistance level of 1.1260.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

The upward bounce potential target are 1.1450, 1.1675.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

We expected the trade balance release would not be able to please the traders with strong data. The release showed -1.202B.

The pound revaluation against the euro together with the manufacturing sector weakness point to that the data will not be very delightful. The UK government bond yields declined to their counterparts from the US and Germany that might also put pressure on the "cable".

We did not get the downward trend continuation yesterday. The price corrected upwards to 1.5390 on the low volumes. The level of 1.5550 plays the role of the key resistance.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5300, the next one is 1.5200. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5390, the next one is at 1.5460.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement.

The MACD histogram is in a neutral territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.5390 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.5460, 1.5550 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bullish sentiment changed to bearish, despite the Japan and the United States important macroeconomic statistics lack. There was the bond yields negative differential expansion in Japan and the US markets which is a positive factor for the dollar. At the same time the Japanese currency devaluation has a positive effect on the economy of Japan - the current account balance shows a high positive gain since February. However it did not allow the pair to continue the growth.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 125.50, the next one is at 127.00.

The price is in the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement and form a “Golden Cross’.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

After the support level of 123/50 breakthrough down the way to the support 12240 will be opened.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

11.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

We had a multidirectional trend yesterday still the day the EUR/USD finished with an increase. The pair GBP/USD had decreased in spite of the UK April positive trade balance. However the pair increased by the end of the day. The pair USD/JPY had grown upwards amid the Tokyo stock exchange sales which contributed to the carry trade transactions closing and the demand for the Japanese yen. Then the pair sharply fell.

The US dollar keeps strengthening – the Treasury two-years bond yields which reflect investors' expectations about the Fed interest rates may show a growth above the level of 0.75%. The current profitability level is 0.71% and therefore it is quite difficult to count on the dollar bullish sentiment. The May US retail sales positive report can change the situation, we expect the report today.

The US Federal Reserve meeting will be held a week later there on June 16-17. However, some analytics believe that even at this meeting the US central bank will dare to start its monetary policy tightening. Still markets are hoping that the Federal Reserve governor Janet Yellen will give a hint at the end of the press conference when to wait for this event.

Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The May US retail sales report will be published today that may affect the pair's dynamics. The German 10-year bond yields rose up relative to their UK and US counterparts which is a positive factor for the euro.

At the same time the Greece and the German bond yields have been increasing for three consecutive trading days that point out to the investors' negative expectations. However, the oil market positive dynamics may contribute to the euro demand.

The level of 1.1260 testing was short-term. Buyers again took an initiative and corrected the price upwards.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1260, the next one is 1.1150. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1450, the next one is at 1.1675.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show show a horizontal movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 1.1260 and 1.1150.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The UK national statistics office published the April manufacturing sector production report. The production fell by 0.4% m/m and grew by 0.2% y/y. The PMI manufacturing sector and the Industrialists Confederation industrial orders balance negative reports pointed out to the weak data output. And late in the evening the Bank of England governor Mr. Carney gave his speech.

There was the level of 1.5460 breakthrough. The price output from the channel was on the reduced volume, but it signals towards the bearish trend reversal. The resistance level of 1.5550 was tested.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show an upward movement and form a “Golden cross”. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We suppose the pair will go to 1.5460 first. Having overcome the first target the price might go upwards to 1.5390.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

Japan has published the machinery and equipment orders release. The machinery and equipment orders rose up to + 3.0% y/y in April and rose up to + 3.8% m/m. It is industrial production leading indicator and it is closely watched by traders. However, most of the positive data had a negative impact on the yen and a positive effect on the Japanese stock market.

We observe the Japan and the US negative bond yields increase on the bond market which is also a bullish factor for the US dollar.

The price is finding the first support at 122.40, the next one is at 121.60. The price is finding the first resistance at 123.50, the next one is at 124.30.

There is a confirmed and a strong sell signal. The price is below the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is consolidating.

Trading recommendations

We expect the 122.40 line break that will open the way for the sellers to 121.60, further then towards 120.40.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.

 

[Fort Financial Services]

"Fort Financial Services"- fundamental and technical analysis

12.06.2015

Fundamental analysis

Yesterday the pair EUR/USD had increased amid the German 10-years bond yields rapid growth. At the moment the German 10-year bond yields reached the mark of 1.02%. However, the pair fell by the end of the trades.

The pair GBP/USD had increased as well amid the April UK industrial production positive release and high oil prices. Nevertheless, the pair slightly fell at the end of the day.

The chief newsmaker has rightly become the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda who noted in his speech that the Japanese yen is oversold. Against this background, the pair USD/JPY had decreased. By the end of the day the pair showed a growth.

In May the US domestic market car sales increased by more than 1 million units. The Conference Board indicator of consumer confidence indicator increased by 1.1 p at the end of May in comparison with the previous month which also points to the strong data output. The initial jobless claims release came out at the level of 279 000 against forecasted 275 000.


Technical analysis

Euro (EUR)

General overview

The traders' attention was focused on the US statistics. The May retail sales report will determine the US consumer activity on the eve of the US Federal Reserve meeting on the 17 of June. Leading indicators point out to the positive data output. The May retail sales report showed a growth by 1.2%.

There was a false resistance level of 1.1260 breakthrough that is a good signal towards the downward trend continuation.

The price is finding the first support at 1.1150, the next one is 1.1050. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.1260, the next one is at 1.1450.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows a downward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movement. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a positive territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The buyers need to break above 1.3610 for a steady growth. The way to the marks 1.1450, 1.1675 will be opened after this breakthrough.

Pound (GBP)

General overview

The British pound was in demand amid the "black gold" price growth. The Brent crude oil has consolidated above the mark of $ 66 barrel amid the US inventories decline which is a negative factor for the US dollar. It should also be noted that the British pound is supported by the pair EUR / GBP quotations decrease.

The UK 10-year negative bond yields are declining relative to their US and Germany counterparts which is also a bearish factor for the pair.

Thanks to the two resistance levels of 1.5390 and 1.5460 breakthrough buyers have strengthened their position in this market.

The price is finding the first support at 1.5460, the next one is 1.5390. The price is finding the first resistance at 1.5550, the next one is at 1.5670.

There is a confirmed and a strong buy signal. The price is above the Cloud and it is above the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal movment. The upward movement will be until the price is above the Cloud.

The MACD histogram is in a positive territory. The price is growing.

Trading recommendations

We believe the growth will be continued now. The first target is the level 1.5550.

Yen (JPY)

General overview

The bearish sentiment dominated amid the traders' escape from the US dollar and amid the Mr. Kuroda statements, concerning the oversold Japanese yen. Later, however, there was a demand for the dollar. The positive retail sales may contribute to the US two-years bond yields above 4-year maximum of 0.752% which had a positive impact on the US dollar.

After a decline more than 200 points the price recovered its position.

The price is finding the first support at 123.50, the next one is at 122.40. The price is finding the first resistance at 124.30, the next one is at 125.50.

The price is in the Cloud and it is below the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen and the Kijun-sen show a horizontal movement and form a “Dead cross”.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

The potential decrease targets are two levels of support: 123.50, 122.40.

Franc (CHF)

General overview

The dollar increased amid the positive US statistics. Earlier the Swiss franc had strengthened its position. The dollar came under pressure after the Bank of Japan governor Mr. Kuroda's comments. His words provoked the US dollar sales against the major currencies. Also, the frank grew up as a safe haven currency due to Greece.

The price is finding the first support at 0.9280, the next one is at 0.9160. The price is finding the first resistance at 0.9370, the next one is at 0.9540.

There is a confirmed and a weak sell signal. The price is under the Cloud and it is under the Chinkou Span. The Tenkan-sen shows an upward movement and the Kijun-sen shows a horizontal. The downward movement will be until the price is under the Cloud.

The MACD indicator is in a negative territory. The price is correcting.

Trading recommendations

We advise to short with the first target - 0.9280. When the pair consolidates below the first target, we can open deals to the level of 0.9160.

*Analytical review is presented by the leading analyst of the broker Fort Financial Services, Alexander Kofman.