Fundamental Analysis from IFC Markets

[IFC Markets]

Preliminary US labor market data from ADP to be released today - 31.8.2022​

Todays’ Market Summary​

• On Tuesday, the US dollar index remained almost unchanged.
• Yesterday the US stock indexes went down.
• On Tuesday, oil quotes fell.
• Yesterday, precious metals continued to fall in price.

Top daily news​

On Tuesday, the US dollar index remained almost unchanged. Since the beginning of last week, it has been trading in a range of 107.5-109.5 points, near a 20-year high. Investors are looking forward to important data on the labor market (United States Nonfarm Payrolls) for August, which will be released on Friday, September 2. Quotes of stock indices and precious metals are declining amid the risks of a further increase in the Fed's rate. Oil fell in price due to the growth of its reserves in the United States. Eurozone inflation data to be released today

Forex news​

Currency Pair	Change
EUR USD	+0.04%
GBP USD	-0.08%
USD JPY	-0.15%

On Tuesday, the US dollar index remained almost unchanged. Since the beginning of last week, it has been trading in a range of 107.5-109.5 points, near a 20-year high. Investors are looking forward to important data on the labor market (United States Nonfarm Payrolls) for August, which will be released on Friday, September 2. Yesterday in the US was published the activity of consumer confidence CB Consumer Confidence (103.2 points) for August, which turned out to be better than expected. Significant statistics will be released in the Eurozone today, which may affect the euro rate: unemployment in Germany and inflation in the EU. This morning China released the NBS Manufacturing PMI for August (49.4). He exceeded the forecast and this had a positive impact on the yuan.

Today, Bitcoin continues to trade near the psychological level of $20,000 for the 4th day in a row. Over the past 2 weeks, it has collapsed by almost 20%. The main negative for the crypto market was a sharp rise in the price of electricity in a number of European countries. In addition, some environmentalists have begun to criticize cryptocurrency mining for its possible contribution to the global increase in carbon dioxide emissions.

Stock Market news​

Indices	Change
Dow Jones Index	-0.96%
S&P 500	-1.1%
Nasdaq 100	-1.12%

Yesterday the US stock indexes went down. The main reason for this was the increased expectations of investors that the U.S. The Federal Reserve will raise the rate by 0.75% from 2.5% to 3.25% at its next meeting on September 21st. This was supported by yesterday's good data on the increase in vacancies in the labor market (United States JOLTS Job Openings). The report of the independent agency ADP United States Nonfarm Employment Change for August will be published today. Rising rates may increase the corporate lending burden. However, now futures for US stock indices are growing slightly. This was supported by good data on industrial activity in China, as well as positive news from US companies ChargePoint Holdings and Hewlett Packard Enterprise.

Commodity Market news​

Commodities	Change
WTI Crude	-0.52%
Brent Crude Oil	-0.65%
Natural Gas Prices	+1.14%
COPPER	+0.86%

In Tuesday, oil quotes fell. The negative factor was the report of the independent American Petroleum Institute on the increase in oil reserves in the US by 0.59 million barrels per week. However, it can be noted that the market is generally stable. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has been trading in the range of $85-100 per barrel for almost 2 months. Investors are awaiting the results of the next OPEC+ meeting on September 5. The decision to adjust oil production will be made depending on the situation in Libya and on the course of negotiations between Iran and Western countries on the "nuclear deal". Today, as usual, the publication of official data on US weekly oil inventories from the U.S. is expected. Energy Information Administration. Now oil continues to get a little cheaper amid reports of new cases of coronavirus in China.

The cost of natural gas in Europe (TTF) remains high and has been above $2,500 per thousand cubic meters for 2 weeks already. This may have a positive impact on oil and coal quotes.

Gold Market News​

Metals	Change
Gold	-0.19%
Silver/US Dollar	+0.17%

Yesterday, precious metals continued to fall in price. New York Fed President John Williams opined that the Fed's rate could be raised to 3.5% this year and not be cut all next year. The planned rate hike by the Fed is a negative factor for precious metals. Yield U.S. The 10-year Treasury has been exceeding the psychological level of 3% per annum for almost 2 weeks. Note that precious metals and US currency are alternative assets for investors. Therefore, their quotes, as a rule, move in antiphase (gold rises in price when the dollar weakens and vice versa). The US dollar index is now trading near a 20-year high. In turn, precious metals are supported by record inflation in developed countries.

 

[IFC Markets]

Markets down after Wall Street dip - 1.9.2022​

Todays’ Market Summary​

• The Dollar strengthening has resumed
• The US stock index futures are down currently
• Brent is edging lower currently.
• Gold prices are extending losses

Top daily news​

Equity indexes are mostly falling currently after US stocks closed lower on Wednesday following disappointing ADP report. Apple shares slid 1.06%, Facebook shares rose 3.67% outperforming market on Wednesday.

Forex news​

Currency Pair	Change
EUR USD	-0.28%
GBP USD	-0.3%
USD JPY	+0.13%
AUD USD	-0.21%

The Dollar strengthening has resumed currently. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, slipped 0.1% Wednesday as ADP data showed American employers increased the number of private jobs by lower than expected 132,000 in August.

GBP/USD continued its sliding on Wednesday while EUR/USD accelerated its climbing as Eurostat reported euro zone inflation rose to another record high in August. Euro and Pound are lower against the Dollar currently. USD/JPY accelerated its climbing yesterday while AUD/USD slowed its sliding with both the Australian dollar and yen lower against the Greenback currently.

Stock Market news​

Indices	Change
Dow Jones Index	-0.16%
Nikkei Index	-0.64%
Hang Seng Index	-1.32%
Australian Stock Index	-0.78%

The US stock index futures are down currently ahead of Bureau of Labor Statistics and Institute for Supply Management reports on unemployment claims and Manufacturing PM due today at 14:30 CET and 16:00 CET respectively. The three main US stock indexes booked losses ranging from 0.6% to 0.9% Wednesday as Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said the US central bank would need to boost interest rates somewhat above 4% by early next year and hold them there.

European stock indexes futures are retreating currently after closing down yesterday led by oil and gas shares. Asian stock indexes futures are falling mostly today with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index leading losses after purchasing managers' indexes from South Korea, Japan and China all pointed to slowing economic activity.

Commodity Market news​

Commodities	Change
Brent Crude Oil	-0.34%
WTI Crude	-0.04%

Brent is edging lower currently. Prices fell yesterday despite the Energy Information Administration report showing domestic crude oil inventories fell by 3.3 million barrels last week while gasoline stocks were down 1.2 million barrels. At the same time the Joint Technical Committee of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies, together called OPEC+, said it now sees an oil surplus this year of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), up 100,000 bpd from its forecast a month earlier. The US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 2.3% and is lower currently. Brent crude lost 2.8% to $96.49 a barrel on Wednesday.

Gold Market News​

Metals	Change
Gold	-0.3%

Gold prices are extending losses currently. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $1710.93 an ounce on Wednesday.

 

[IFC Markets]

Stocks slump ahead of August US payrolls report - 2.9.2022

Todays’ Market Summary​

• The Dollar strengthening has reversed
• US stock indexes futures are down currently
• Brent is edging up presently ahead of G7 finance ministers virtual meeting today where they are expected to agree on plans to impose a price cap on Russian oil.
• Gold is edging up today.

Top daily news​

Global stocks are subdued currently ahead of August US payrolls report today after SP500 snapped 4-session losing streak Thursday. Amazon shares gained 0.83% outperforming the market, Microsoft shares lost 0.44% Thursday while Britain's antitrust regulator said Microsoft’s $69 billion acquisition of "Call of Duty" maker Activision Blizzard could harm competition in gaming sector and it needs to be investigated in depth.

Forex news​

Currency Pair	Change
EUR USD	-0.5%
GBP USD	-0.48%
USD JPY	+0.03%
AUD USD	+0.21%

The Dollar strengthening has reversed currently. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, gained 0.7% Thursday while the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported less Americans applied for initial jobless claims last week than expected while their number declined.

EUR/USD joined GBP/USD’s accelerated sliding Thursday while the flash manufacturing PMI for euro zone was downgraded to 49.6 in the final reading from 49.7 initial estimate. Both euro and Pound are lower against the Dollar currently. USD/JPY accelerated its climbing yesterday while AUD/USD accelerated its retreating with the Australian dollar higher against the Greenback currently and yen little changed.

Stock Market news​

Indices	Change
Dow Jones Index	-0.16%
Nikkei Index	-0.3%
Hang Seng Index	-0.88%
Australian Stock Index	-0.23%

US stock indexes futures are down currently ahead of August US nonfarm payrolls report at 14:30 CET with the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes down at 3.259%. The SP500 and Dow closed higher yesterday with the three main benchmarks recording returns in the range of -0.3% to 0.5% while data showed economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in August at steady pace.

European stock market futures are lower today after ending down Thursday led by travel and leisure shares. Asian stock indexes futures are retreating currently with Chinese blue chips leading losses amid reports the southwestern Chinese metropolis of Chengdu announced a lockdown of its 21.2 million residents.

Commodity Market news​

Commodities	Change
Brent Crude Oil	+1.89%
WTI Crude	+2.51%

Brent is edging up presently ahead of G7 finance ministers virtual meeting today where they are expected to agree on plans to impose a price cap on Russian oil. The price cap would deny London-brokered shipping insurance - which covers about 95% of the world's tanker fleet - and finance to cargoes priced above the cap. Prices ended down Thursday on concerns over new COVID-19 lockdown measures in China. The US oil benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped 3.3% but is higher currently. Brent crude lost 3.4% to $92.36 a barrel on Thursday.

​

Gold Market News​

Metals	Change
Gold	+0.37%

Gold is edging up today. Spot gold fell 0.87% to $1696.09 on Thursday.

 

[IFC Markets]

Equities mixed after US hiring slows - 5.9.2022

Todays’ Market Summary​

• The Dollar strengthening has resumed
• Futures on US equity benchmarks are up
• Brent is extending gains ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, meeting today.
• Gold prices are edging down today

Top daily news​

Equity indexes are pointing in different directions currently after US stocks ended lower again on Friday after nonfarm payrolls indicated employers slowed the pace of hiring in August. Apple shares slid 1.36%, Tesla shares dropped 2.51% underperforming market on Friday despite reports Tesla’s electric vehicle sales and exports in China have come back up to pre-shutdown output levels with 77,000 units delivered in August.

Forex news​

Currency Pair	Change
EUR USD	-0.03%
GBP USD	-0.28%
USD JPY	+0.25%
AUD USD	-0.02%

The Dollar strengthening has resumed currently. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, slipped 0.1% on Friday after Census Bureau report US factory orders declined 1% over month in July after 1.8% increase the previous month.

EUR/USD halted is sliding Friday while GBP/USD resumed its retreating as Eurostat reported industrial producer price growth in euro zone rose to an annual 37.9% in July, up from 36% in June. Both Pound and euro are lower against the Dollar currently. USD/JPY ended little changed Friday while AUD/USD reversed its sliding with both the yen and Australian dollar lower against the Greenback currently.

Stock Market news​

Indices	Change
Dow Jones Index	+0.07%
Nikkei Index	+0.12%
Hang Seng Index	-0.6%
Australian Stock Index	-0.08%

Futures on US equity benchmarks are up currently after US stocks closed down on Friday as data showed the US economy added 315,000 jobs last month, in line with expectations, but lower than the 526,000 posted in July. The three main US stock benchmarks recorded daily losses ranging from 1.1% to 1.3% - registering losses for the week too.

European stock indexes futures are mixed currently after ending higher on Friday with auto shares leading gains. Asian indexes futures are mostly higher today with Japan’s Nikkei Index leading gains while data showed that China’s services sector grew more than expected in August.

Commodity Market news​

Commodities	Change
Brent Crude Oil	+0.84%
WTI Crude	+1.86%

Brent is extending gains ahead of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, meeting today. Traders are gauging the possibility OPEC+ may decide to cut production to bolster prices, despite supplies remaining tight. Prices edged up Friday as Group of Seven finance ministers agreed on Friday to impose a price cap on Russian oil. Ministers said the provision of Western-dominated maritime transportation services, including insurance and finance, would be allowed only if the Russian oil cargoes are purchased at or below the price level "determined by the broad coalition of countries adhering to and implementing the price cap." US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Russia would still have an economic incentive to sell oil at or near the cap, because otherwise it would have to shut down production that would be difficult to restart. Russia vowed it would halt sales to countries imposing a price cap and Russian gas monopoly Gazprom announced it shuts down the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline hours after G-7 finance ministers’ announcement. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 0.3% and is higher currently. Brent crude added 0.7% to $93.02 a barrel on Friday.

Gold Market News​

Metals	Change
Gold	-0.16%

Gold prices are edging down today. Prices ended higher on Friday: spot gold gained 0.9% to $1711.40 an ounce.

 

[IFC Markets]

Markets backtrack ahead of Wall Street reopening - 6.9.2022​

Todays’ Market Summary​

• The Dollar strengthening has halted
• Futures on three main US stock indexes are up
• Brent is edging down currently.
• Gold prices have resumed advancing currently

Top daily news​

Global stocks are pointing mostly down currently ahead of Wall Street reopening after Labor Day holiday on Monday. Honda Motor’s shares fell 1.4% ahead of reports Honda has formed a partnership with trading company Hanwa to secure stable supply of metals used in batteries for electrified vehicles, German airline Lufthansa stock lost 1.2% on Monday.

Forex news​

Currency Pair	Change
EUR USD	+0.52%
GBP USD	+0.24%
USD JPY	+0.73%
AUD USD	-0.26%

The Dollar strengthening has halted currently. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, added 0.2% on Monday.

EUR/USD continued sliding while GBP/USD reversed its retreating Monday as Liz Truss was elected leader of the UK’s ruling Conservative Party and will succeed Boris Johnson as Britain’s prime minister. Both pairs are up currently. USD/JPY resumed its climbing yesterday while AUD/USD declined with both the yen and the Australian dollar lower against the Greenback currently.

Stock Market news​

Indices	Change
Dow Jones Index	+0.3%
Nikkei Index	-0.01%
Hang Seng Index	-0.12%
Australian Stock Index	+0.04%

Futures on three main US stock indexes are up currently ahead of the Institute for Supply Management's Services PMI report at 16:00 CET today with the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes inching up to 3.214%.The three benchmark indexes ended lower on Friday recording daily losses ranging from 1.1% to 1.3%.

European stock indexes futures are retreating currently after closing lower Monday as auto shares led losses. Asian indexes futures are mixed today with Australia’s All Ordinaries ASX 200 Index leading losses while data showed Japanese household spending grew at a slower than expected pace in July.

Commodity Market news​

Commodities	Change
Brent Crude Oil	-0.55%
WTI Crude	-0.6%

Brent is edging down currently. Prices rose yesterday as OPEC+ members agreed to a small production cut of 100,000 barrels per day to support prices. US West Texas Intermediate WTI added 2.3% but is lower currently. Brent gained 2.9% to $95.74 a barrel on Monday.

Gold Market News​

Metals	Change
Gold	+0.39%

Gold prices have resumed advancing currently . Spot gold dipped 0.15% to $1708.87 an ounce on Monday.

 

[IFC Markets]

Equities rebound intact after Wall Street bounce - 12.9.2022​

Todays’ Market Summary​

• The Dollar weakening is intact
• Futures on US equity benchmarks are up
• Brent is extending gains today.
• Gold prices are edging up today

Top daily news​

Equity indexes are pointing up currently after US stocks ended higher again on Friday. Amazon shares rose 2.66% despite reports the company plans job cuts in health-care business after shuttering telehealth service at the end of this year, Tesla shares jumped 3.6% outperforming market on Friday despite reports EV maker is forced to change Autopilot features in Germany after the Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) found “abnormalities”.

Forex news​

Currency Pair	Change
EUR USD	+0.87%
GBP USD	+0.91%
USD JPY	+0.29%
AUD USD	-0.25%

The Dollar weakening is intact currently. The live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, dropped 0.6% on Friday.

Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD reversed their sliding Friday after record European Central Bank rate hike Thursday while Bank of England said on Friday it would postpone its September Monetary Policy Committee meeting by a week as the country enters a period of national mourning. Both Pound and euro are higher against the Dollar currently. USD/JPY reversed its advancing Friday while AUD/USD reversed its sliding with the yen lower against the Greenback currently and Australian dollar higher still.

Stock Market news​

Indices	Change
Dow Jones Index	+0.12%
Nikkei Index	+1.19%
GB 100 Index	+0.9%
Australian Stock Index	+1.32%

Futures on US equity benchmarks are up currently after US stocks closed up on Friday despite Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s statement he supports another "significant increase" in the benchmark lending rate at the September 20-21 policy meeting. The three main US stock benchmarks recorded daily gains ranging from 1.2% to 2.1% - registering gains for the week too.

European stock indexes futures are gaining currently after ending higher on Friday with mining shares leading gains. Asian indexes futures are mostly higher today with Australia’s ASX 200 index leading gains with markets closed in China due to a holiday.

Commodity Market news​

Commodities	Change
Brent Crude Oil	+0.42%
WTI Crude	+0.43%

Brent is extending gains today. Prices rebounded Friday as energy services firm Baker Hughes reported active US oil rigs count fell five to 591 last week, the lowest since mid-June. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures gained 3.9% and is higher currently. Brent crude rallied 4.1% to $92.84 a barrel on Friday. The benchmarks lost 0.1% and 0.2% on the week respectively.

Gold Market News​

Metals	Change
Gold	+0.44%

Gold prices are edging up today. Prices ended higher on Friday: spot gold gained 0.45% to $1716.05 an ounce.

 

[IFC Markets]

Inflation fell in the US - 11.11.2022

Todays’ Market Summary​

• On Thursday, the US dollar index fell sharply due to the reduction of inflation in the US.
• Yesterday, US stock indices rose of course.
• Today, oil prices are rising for the 2nd day in a row.
• Gold yesterday, as usual, showed a noticeable increase against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar.

Top daily news​

On Thursday, the US dollar index fell sharply due to the reduction of inflation in the US. In October, it fell below 8% for the first time in 8 months. US stocks and precious metals, of course, rose. Today, oil prices are rising for the 2nd day in a row. Market participants hope for an increase in business activity and demand for hydrocarbons amid signs of recovery in the US economy

Forex news​

Currency Pair	Change
EUR USD	+0.38%
GBP USD	+0.14%
USD JPY	+0.17%

On Thursday, the US dollar index fell sharply due to the reduction of inflation in the US. In October, it fell below 8% for the first time in 8 months and amounted to 7.7% y/y. This is the minimum since January this year. Now investors expect not only a slowdown in the rate of growth of the Fed rate, but also its relatively low maximum - no more than 5%. According to CME FedWatch, at the meeting on December 14, the Fed rate can be increased by only 0.5% with a probability of 81%. A week earlier, the probability was much lower at 52%. Recall that now the rate is 4% and is already close to the United States Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which fluctuates around 6% per annum this year. Thus, the weakening of the US dollar was a reaction to the expectations of an early completion of the Fed rate hike. Inflation in Germany was published this morning. In October it rose to 10.4% y/y. This helped strengthen the euro as market participants look forward to a further increase in the European Central Bank (ECB) rate, which currently stands at 2%. The British pound continues to strengthen this morning. United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product turned out to be slightly better than expected.


Bitcoin corrected up yesterday after a massive fall due to problems with the FTX Cryptocurrency Exchange. Players hope to accelerate the development of American rules for regulating the crypto market after the elections to the US Congress.

Stock Market news​

Indices	Change
Dow Jones Index	+3.7%
S&P 500	+5.54%
Nasdaq 100	+7.35%
US Dollar Index	-0.55%

Yesterday, US stock indices rose of course. Investors expect the Fed rate hike to be completed in the foreseeable future and that it will not exceed 5%. Low lending rates increase the profitability of corporate business. Yesterday’s daily growth of the S&P 500 by 5.5% was the highest in the last 2 and a half years. Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November will be released today in the US. Investor activity may be reduced due to the celebration of Veterans Day in the US, but the main exchanges will remain open.

Commodity Market news​

Commodities	Change
WTI Crude	+2.7%
Brent Crude Oil	+2.5%
Natural Gas Prices	+0.35%
COPPER	+2.6%

Today, oil prices are rising for the 2nd day in a row. Market participants hope for an increase in business activity and demand for hydrocarbons against the backdrop of signs of recovery in the US economy in the form of lower inflation. An additional positive could be reports of easing anti-coronavirus measures in China.


Natural gas quotes in Europe on the ICE Dutch TTF are trading at about $1,100 per 1,000 cubic meters. It is likely that $1,000 per 1,000 cubic meters has now become a support level for European gas prices.


Copper rose in anticipation of increased demand due to an expected recovery in industrial activity in the world, as well as a reduction in copper ore production in Chile and Peru.

Gold Market News​

Metals	Change
Gold	+0.5%
Silver/US Dollar	%

Gold yesterday, as usual, showed a noticeable increase against the backdrop of a weakening US dollar. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note dropped to 3.81% from a 15-year high of 4.34% recorded in the second half of October. After the decline in inflation in the US, investors expect the Fed rate hike to end soon.