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[HFM]

Date : 27th October 2021.

Market Update – October 27 – Yields up,Robust USD.

• USD (USDIndex 93.84) – topped at 94 before retracing to 93.84 in Asia session.Wall Street rallied to more new highs on the USA500 and USA30, with the USA100 closing in on its peak, before gains faded. Solid earnings continued to underpin optimism, and stronger than expected confidence and housing data helped too. – rekindled Fed tightening fears.
• The long end of the market saw yields dip, overlooking the inflation jump as the longer term outlook is still benign. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved up 1.4 bp to 1.622%. Australia’s 10-year rate moved up and the 3-year jumped nearly 16 bp after core inflation came in higher than anticipated and reached a 6 year high in data for the third quarter.
• FT: Alphabet and Microsoft smash estimates with $110bn revenue haul (+33% from Q3 2020) – surge in cloud computing, and a strong rebound in digital advertising – all eyes on US open. Big misses from Robinhood, tanking its shares – closed at 40.09.
• Evergrande in focus again as authorities called on billionaire Hui Ka Yan to use his personal wealth to support China Evergrande Group. Chinese authorities called on companies to make “active preparations” to meet payments on offshore bonds. – sell-off in seven weeks for Chinese tech shares.
• German import price inflation hit 17.7% in September – The breakdown showed that energy prices remain the main driving factor, & that the shortage of natural gas and the spike in oil prices are not the only problems hitting supply chains, with supply shortages likely to keep prices elevated into next year.
• USOil steadied around $82 – $83.
• Gold dipped on robust USD, higher yields and ahead of central banks, at $1785.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable bounced 1.3774, USDJPY – 114 from 114.30.

Today – US Durables and BoC rate decision and conference. Earnings: Thermo Fisher, Coca-Cola, McDonald’s, Sony, ServiceNow, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Boeing, GlaxoSmithKline, ADP, GM, Old Dominion, CME, Edwards Lifesciences, Norfolk Southern, Twilio, Ford, General Dynamics, KLA Corp., eBay.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDUSD (+40%) – spiked at 0.7535, faster MAs rising and RSI at 60. Fast MACD signal line & histogram keep rising, implying further rise in the short term.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 28th October 2021.

Market Update – October 28 – USD Mixed, Stocks Down, Yield Curve Flattens, Oil tanks.

• USD (USDIndex 93.82) V. choppy session as Yield spreads narrowed to March 2020 lows (2&5yr higher, 10&30yr lower) – catalysts Inflation worries, surprise ending of QE, earlier rates hikes suggested from BOC. Stocks down, Oil sank. Durable Goods missed but not as bad as expected, Trade balance at record $96.3 bn.
• US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.529) lifted in Asian now 1.57%.
• Equities lower – USA500 -23 (-0.51%) at 4551 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – MSFT +4.21%, GOOGL + 4.96%, EXXON -2.6%, JPM -2.08% – USA500.F back to 4545. Asian equities weaker.
• USOil down on Inventories more than a double build – at 4.3m vs 2.0m & draw down last week of 400k barrels. Low $79.39 earlier from $83.70 on Monday.
• Gold recovers from $1783 low yesterday to breach $1800 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1600, Cable 1.3750, USDJPY now 113.70

ECB Preview: The central bank is widely expected to keep policy settings on hold today, after Lagarde signalled last month that the important decisions on the future of PEPP and possible changes to the older APP programmes won’t be taken until December. Still, markets will be hoping for some signals on the flavour of the discussion at the presser. The departure (by year end) of Bundesbank President Weidmann – the most hawkish and traditional central banker at the council – fueled speculation of a further strengthening of the older APP asset purchase programs. The ECB’s mandate will still have to be respected, but by keeping some flexibility for emergency situations the ECB could still send a dovish signal, even if it confirms in December that PEPP will end on time in March next year – as is widely expected.

European Open The December 10-year Bund future is up 4 ticks, but the 30-year future is moving higher long Gilt futures are rallying, as markets turn pessimistic on the growth outlook. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are managing slight gains though in line with US futures.

Today – German Unemployment, EZ Consumer Confidence, US GDP, PCE Prices Advance, Weekly Claims, ECB Policy Announcement and Press Conference Earnings- Airbus, AB InBev, Carlsberg, Evolution Gaming, Nokia, Saint Gobain; Shell; Amazon, Apple, Comcast, Merck, Caterpillar, Mastercard, Yum!, Shopify.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDCAD (+0.37%) Recovering from BOC shock yesterday down to 0.8820 back to 0.8880 now. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising, RSI 55 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0012, Daily ATR 0.0062.

 

[HFM]

Date : 1st November 2021.

Market Update – November 1 – A Wild Start.


The markets were volatile through October as uncertainties over inflation, growth, and central bank reaction functions provided mixed directional signals. After early declines following record high inflation rates, both bonds and stocks ended in the green. Canada was an underperformer as the BoC trimmed QE and then ended it last week. The markets are looking for hawkish outcomes from the FOMC and BoE this week.The Reserve Bank of Australia also decides policy on Tuesday, with markets challenging the central bank’s contention that rates won’t rise until 2024.

Equities generally managed to rally as the massive amount of liquidity still in the system combined with good earnings results to overshadow concerns over growth amid headwinds from supply shortages, bottlenecks, Covid, and elevated costs.

• USD (USDIndex 93.45) jumped to a 3-week high against major peers on Monday as quickening inflation in the United States boosted the case for earlier Fed interest rate hikes ahead of a policy decision on Tuesday.
• Japan’s election boosted hopes for fiscal stimulus with PM Kishida managing to preserve an outright majority for his Liberal Democratic Party – Topix and JPN225 are up 2.2% and 2.6% respectively.
• China official manufacturing PMI slumped for a 7th consecutive monthly drop and leaves the index at its lowest level since October 2019. – Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently down -0.95% and -0.33% respectively.
• German retail sales unexpectedly slumped -2.5 m/m in September.
• US Yields (10yr up at 1.56%).
• USOil steadied to $81.10.
• Gold – another volatile day (1810-1792), cannot hold $1800 and trades at $1794 now.
• FX markets – Strong USD, weak Yen – USDJPY rallied to 114.38, Cable capped by 1.3800 and trades at 1.3642, EURUSD 1. 1545. AUD also struggled as yields corrected.

Today – Another important week for central bank decisions that includes Fed and BoE announcements. Data releases today focus on final manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone and the UK, which are likely to confirm that supply chain disruptions are weighing on output, while price pressures increase. US and Canadian Manufacturing PMI are also due.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) GBPAUD (+0.63%) GBP giving up some gains ahead of BoE meeting. Faster MAs steadied, MACD signal line & histogram cooling but still negative, RSI 46 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.0019, Daily ATR 0.01090.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 2nd November 2021.

Market Update – November 2 – Risk Appetite Soured.

• RBA confirms end of yield curve targeting and after abandoning any attempt to defend the 0.1% for the April 2024 yield last week, the bank confirmed today that the yield target has been ditched and opened the door for an earlier interest rate hike.
• Lowe stressed that the bank will see through spikes in the inflation rates, and that unlike elsewhere the RBA sees a further, but gradual increase in core inflation, as there is a lot of inertia in the labour market, which makes it hard to see inflation accelerating too quickly.
• Australian shares fell on Tuesday – Miners and banks worst performers
• AUD tanked as markets adjusted rate hike bets. AUDUSD at 0.7465 from 0.7533.
• US Yields were off their early highs (Currently 10yr fractionally higher at 1.56% compared to the day’s peak at 1.603%).
• USD (USDIndex 93.80) down as US futures in the red after a largely weaker session in Asia despite the strong earnings season. Overnight prices wobbled after the Manchin remarks and mixed data, but all rallied into the close. (A beat from the ISM, but a miss on construction spending, though they still modestly boosted growth prospects).
• The USA100 climbed 0.63% to 15,595, while the USA500 was 0.18% firmer at 4613, while the USA30 advanced 0.26% to 35,913. Treasury revised Q4 borrowings higher to $1,015 bln, with $650 December 31 cash balance, and $476 bln borrowings for Q1 2022. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.17% and -0.21%, respectively.
• Senator Manchin continued to oppose a quick vote on President Biden’s massive spending plans, saying he will not vote on a reconciliation package without knowing more about its impacts. He worries over programs that “irresponsibly” add to the debt, which totals over $29 tln, and which risks hurting families that are suffering from “historic inflation.” He said holding the infrastructure bill “hostage” will not get his support for reconciliation.
• USOil topped at $83.05, on slow OPEC oil output increase & China ramped up operating rates to meet a spike in diesel demand.
• Gold – up to 1796.30 again.
• FX markets – AUD sold off, Yen strengthened – EURUSD little changed at just over 1.1605, GBPUSD dropped back to 1.3630. Markets are concerned that an early lift off in rates could hamper a still fragile economy.

Today – Data releases today focus on final manufacturing PMIs for the Eurozone, which were delayed by the public holiday in parts of the region yesterday and employment data from New Zealand.



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.94%) dips to 1-week lows from 85.90 to 84.80. Faster MAs steadied, MACD signal line & histogram are sharply lower in negative territory, RSI 20 and neutral. H1 ATR 0.186, Daily ATR 0.806.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 3rd November 2021.

Market Update – November 3 – Eyeing FED.

• A global rally in bonds helped knock Treasury rates lower as the markets repriced central bank outlooks, paring some of the more aggressive views on rate hikes. The moves across Treasuries, EGBs, and Asian bonds were precipitated by the RBA’s ending of YYC and push back against expectations for a 2022 tightening.
• Fears of an aggressive FOMC in 2022 were also pared, as were worries over a BoE rate hike as soon as Thursday. – US Yields lower (10yr rate fell to 1.54%).
• USD (USDIndex 94.00) eased as US futures steadiedafter posting new highs – The USA30 rose 0.39% to 36,053, closing over 36k for the first time ever. The USA500 advanced 0.37% to 4630, with the USA100 0.34% firmer at 15,649. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.013% and -0.12% respectively.
• Premier Li Keqiang warned that the Chinese economy faces new downward pressure, amid a pick up in Covid-19 case numbers, higher energy prices and supply problems. A strong China services PMI failed to lift confidence.
• USOil down at $81.18, amid some encouraging comments ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, which supported hopes that there will be some sort of agreement on higher outputs after all.
• Tesla’s Elon Musk bemoans German red tape, again – Tesla found a floor at 1145.
• Fired Apple employee files complaint with US labor agency – Apple at 150.00.
• FX markets – USD steady, USDJPY dropped back to 113.82 and AUD and NZD stabilised, after selling off yesterday.

FOMC preview: the Fed will resume its meeting today and announce its decision at 18:00 GMT, to be followed by Chair Powell’s press conference at 18:30 GMT. This meeting does not include the quarterly economic forecasts or dot plots. The announcement of QE tapering is fully anticipated, leaving attention on Powell’s remarks and how he addresses inflation and growth dynamics. We expect he will reiterate the view that inflationary pressures are “transitory,” while acknowledging that prices have been elevated and are likely to remain high but mostly due to the reopenings from the pandemic and supply chain factors. He also should note the slowing in growth as evidenced by the slippage in Q3 GDP to the 2% rate, but again much can be attributed to supply constraints of labor and materials. Powell will not signal any timeframe for rate hikes but will try to downplay risks of a June liftoff while continuing to differentiate tapering from tightening.

Today – Markets are likely to be cautious ahead of the Fed announcement today and the BoE decision tomorrow. Data releases today include the final UK services PMI, as well as Eurozone unemployment data, ECB Lagarde Speech, US ADP and US ISM PMIs.



Interesting Mover @ (06:30 GMT) USOIL (-1%) dips below 81 and S1 extending lower BB downwards. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram turned negative, RSI 34 and neutral, while Stochastic dipped to 8 and is sloping down. H1 ATR 0.48, Daily ATR 1.95.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 5th November 2021.

Market Update – November 5 – NFP Day.


Receding fears of aggressive policy turns from the Fed and BoE saw shorts scramble to cover with yields plunging as the markets repriced policy outlooks. Although the FOMC announced tapering and the BoE warned of rate hikes down the road, the more patient stance taken by both banks wrongfooted bond bears and forced a repricing of rate expectations.

• USD up (USDIndex 94.40).
• Yields have backed up with the 10-year Treasury yield at 1.53%, but bonds across the Asia-Pacific region still caught up with yesterday’s rally, and the JGB rate is down -1.1 bp at 0.06.
• Equities were mostly firmer Thursday as well, with the USA100, USA500, GER30, and CAC40 all at record highs. – The equity rally started to stall today. Hang Seng and CSI 300 are currently down -1.2 and -0.3% respectively, JPN225 has lost -0.7%.
• China’s rising Covid-19 case numbers and problems in the country’s property sector remained in focus as developer Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. and its Hong Kong listed units were suspended from trading.
• The RBA’s quarterly policy statement with updated projections sounded upbeat on the recovery, but cautious on wage growth, which backs official assertions that rates won’t rise for a long time to come.
• USOil down at $78 lows after dropping sharply yesterday in the wake of the OPEC+ agreement to stick with the gradual 400K barrels a day increase in production, which boosted speculation that countries will tap their strategic reserves to keep a lid on prices.
• Gold up at 1798 as the falling yields provided support.
• FX markets – USD steady at 94.40 highs, AUD and NZD were under pressure, while the JPY strengthened, leaving USDJPY at 113.61. EURUSD at month low 1.1560 & GBPUSD stabilised at 1.3500.
• USDZAR – dipped early on Friday on elections results, after a volatile week during which it swung back and forth on domestic politics and US monetary policy. – ANC took 46% of the vote, its worst result since taking power at the end of white minority rule in 1994.

Today – The focus turns to the October employment report, where we expect non-farm payrolls to rise 380k versus the 194k in September. Hourly earnings should rise 0.4% after jumping 0.6% previously, while the average work week is seen dipping slightly to 34.7 from 34.8. The unemployment rate is penciled in at an unchanged 4.8%. September consumer credit is due late in the session.
For earnings, reports are due from Berkshire Hathaway, Toyota, Enbridge, Dominion Energy, Johnson Controls, Honda, Sempra, TELUS, Magna International, Ventas, and DraftKings. Next week the refunding auctions are on tap with $120 bln in 3-, 10-, and 30-year paper for sale.



Biggest Mover @ (06:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.28%) dipped to 80.43. Faster MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram clash but are sharply negative, RSI 38 and neutral, all indicating consolidation for now. H1 ATR 0.133, Daily ATR 0.819.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 8th November 2021.

Market Update – November 8 – Heavy News Weekend Weighs.

• After records for Equities (440 of S&P500 have reported so far & Q3 Earnings up 41% overall) & a 1-yr high for USDIndex to conclude a huge data week, news flow over the weekend weighs on markets to start the trading week.
• Tesla CEO Musk, via a Twitter poll, asked if he should sell a 10% stake (USD 21bln) in Tesla; 57.9% voted “Yes” with over 3.5mln total votes.
• US House voted to pass $1.2tln bipartisan infrastructure bill late on Friday & sent it to President Biden for signing.
• Chinese trade data showed a larger-than-expected trade surplus & strong exports, but USD-denominated imports missed estimates.
• Some China Evergrande unit offshore bondholders have not received interest payments due Saturday.
• UK reportedly prepared to trigger Article 16 of NI agreement & ditch customs checks before Christmas, EU sticking to deal.

———————————————————————————————

• USD (USDIndex 94.22) down from Friday’s 1-yr high 94.62 – post NFP – holds the bid.
• US Yields (10yr crashed into close at 1.453) lifted a tad overnight to 1.46%.
• Equities at all-time highs Friday – USA500 +17 (+0.37%) at 4697 (DOW -0.75%) – Big movers – PFE +10.86%, AirBnB +12.98%, DIS +3.14% – USA500.F back to 4683. Asian equities weaker.
• USOil – bounced Friday from Thursday’s low at $77.15 – rallied again today as ARAMCO increases prices – trading back to $81.00 now from $79.75 close on Friday.
• Gold recovers further from Friday’s breach & break of $1800 as yields remain weak. Touched $1820 today back to $1816 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD 1.1550, Cable 1.3478, USDJPY now 113.57.

European Open The December 10-year Bund future is down 9 ticks, U.S. futures are also losing ground. Markets are still finding a new equilibrium after central banks did their best to slap down overblown tightening expectations for the coming years last week. ECB’s Lane in an interview with a Spain’s El Pais also argued again that the current spike in prices will be temporary and that the central bank should not overreact, as inflation is still projected to undershoot target in the medium term. The DAX and FTSE 100 futures are currently down -0.2% and -0.1% respectively, with a -0.4% correction in the NASDAQ leading US futures lower.

Week Ahead – All about inflation data this week, with FED (and most other CBs) behind the curve – will they have to do more, more quickly, or are they correct in their assessment of the “transitory” nature of inflation? A plethora of central bankers will have the platform this week – kicking off today with 4 from the Fed.

Today – EZ Sentix Index, Fed’s Powell, Evans, Harker, Montgomery; ECB’s Lane



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.63%) Recovering from Friday low at 0.6460 continues. Strong move over 0.6500 today to test 0.6530. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising& over 0 line, RSI 67 & rising. H1 ATR 0.0010, Daily ATR 0.0052.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 9th November 2021.

Market Update – November 9 – USD Cools ahead of Inflation data.

• USD (USDIndex 93.85) down again from Friday’s 1-yr high 94.62, under 94.00. PPI today & CPI tomorrow weigh as equities grind higher & yields slip again. FED Vice-Chair Clarida remained Dovish “a ways away from considering raising interest rates,” although “necessary conditions for raising the target range for the federal funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022.” Bullard & Bowman much more Hawkish; “If inflation is more persistent than we are saying right now, then I think we may have to take a little sooner action in order to keep inflation under control.”
• Evergrande contemporary Kaisa needs “help”, downgraded by Fitch; Fed warns “ailing Chinese real estate sector poses threat to US economy” – FT
• US Yields (10yr closed down again at 1.474%) lifted a tad overnight to 1.497%, below key 1.50 level.
• Equities at all-time highs again but limited gains – USA500 +4.17 (+0.09%) at 4701 – Big movers – TSLA -4.84%, AMD +10.14%, AMC +8.06%. Softbank, PayPal, Roblox, Tencent and Zynga all beat Earnings expectations – USA500.F back to 4686. Asian equities weaker.
• USOil – slips below $81.00 to $80.65. Biden may act on high US Gasoline prices – speaking with OPEC+ re output, Private Inventories later today.
• Gold recovers further from Friday’s breach & break of $1800 as yields remain weak, inflation worries swirl and seasonality looms. Touched $1827 for a 45-day high earlier, back to $1824 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD up to 1.1600, USDJPY under 113.00, @112.80 & Cable up to 1.3570.

Overnight – JPY data mixed; Earnings & Current Account weaker than expected, Lending and Econ. Sentiment significantly higher. JPY recovers recent losses. German Trade Balance missed – Exports declined -0.7% while Imports nudged up 0.1%, suggesting more weakness.

European Open – Dec 10-yr Bund future up 1 tick, DAX & FTSE 100 futures down -0.2% & -0.3% respectively, US futures also in red, after a largely weaker session across the Asia-Pacific region overnight. Volatility in bond markets has been very high, as markets struggle to find an equilibrium amid the gradual advancing turn in CB cycles. That keeps central bank comments firmly in focus.

Today – EZ ZEW, US PPI, A whole gaggle of CB Speak – ECB’s Panetta, Knot, Lagarde, Schnabel, BOE’s Bailey & Broadbent, Fed’s Bullard, Powell, Daly. US 10-yr Bond Auction.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.39%) RJPY up on overnight data mix. back under 81.00 today to test 81.60. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 39 & falling. H1 ATR 0.122, Daily ATR 0.784.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 11th November 2021.

Market Update – November 11 – Boom goes the Greenback.

• USD (USDIndex 94.86) spiked to 94.96 (July 2020 high). US Inflation at 30-yr high – USD & Gold rocket, Yields rise and stocks sink. Weekly Claims in-line at pandemic lows. Musk has sold $5bln of #TSLA stock this week, (3% of the 10%) TSLA closed +4.34% yesterday. US & China agree surprise pact at COP26, Biden has a plan to “reduce high energy costs”. Overnight – AUD jobs & GBP GDP both missed & UK Industrial & manu. data also weak.
• Evergrande $148m interest payment was PAID – avoiding immediate default. Next payment due December 28 – $255m. They have total debts of $300bln ($19bln due outside of China).
• US Yields (10yr rallied to close up at 1.56%, a 7-week high, from the a 6-week low at 1.4150 Tuesday. Treasury markets closed today for Veterans Day.
• Equities down in worse day in a month. USA500 -38.5 (-0.82%) at 4646 – Big movers; TSLA +4.34%, PFE +3.64%, Ford -3.78% GOOGL -2.03%. Disney missed (DIS+ subscriptions & Theme parks) – 4.5% after hours. USA500.F trades lower at 4650. Asian equities weaker (ASX worst – Nikkei actually +ve on weak JPY) .
• USOil – off 7-year highs on Biden’s comments – Inventories – a smaller build than expected 1.0 m vs 1.6m & 3.3m last week – USOil fell to 79.50. Trades at $80.00 now.
• Gold recovers further testing as high as $1870 yesterday (5-mth high) as Inflation hedge trade builds, back to $1856 now.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1470, USDJPY back over 114.00, & Cable back to 1.3385. AUD & NZD at 5-wk low.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future is down -31 ticks at 170.38; That will leave European markets to continue to digest yesterday’s hot US inflation number & continue to adjust rate hike expectations, which have come back with a vengeance. The spike in bond market volatility over the past month highlights that central bankers need to adjust their communication policy as the rate cycle turns & that repeating the mantra that inflation pressures will be temporary are no longer enough to soothe nerves. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently down -0.2% and up 0.1% respectively.

Today – OPEC MOMR, ECB’s Lane, Schnabel,- US & CAD Veterans Day (Bond markets & Banks closed).



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (-0.36%) Collapsed from 0.7100 to 0.7030 so far. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & under 0 line, RSI 25 & still falling. H1 ATR 0.0011, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 12th November 2021.

Market Update – November 12 – USD holds onto its multi-month bid.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USD (USDIndex 95.16) spiked to 95.26 (new 16-mth high) vs. Euro at 14-mth low, USDJPY close to 4-yr high, Commodity & EM Currencies pressured too. Stocks mixed, Asian markets firmer, Treasury futures re-open positively. Next milestone – US Retail Sales on Tuesday (8.5-10% increase?). German Wholesale prices much hotter than expected (+0.6% vs 0.4% & 0.2% last time) . Xi Ping the new “helmsman”, Russia & Ukraine issues swirl.
• US Yields (10yr trades at 1.566%, up 1.7bp after Thursday’s holiday.
• Equities mixed, Dow -0.44%, NASDAQ +0.52% USA500 +2.5 (+0.06%) at 4649 – Big movers; TSLA rival RIVN +22%, FreeportMc +9%, GM & NVidia both +4.3%, Disney -7%. USA500.F trades lower at 4646.
• USOil – struggles & fails to hold $80.00, on the stronger USD & OPEC cutting its 2021 oil demand forecast due to high prices.
• Gold holds at highs too at $1857 now. A close over the psychological $1850 tonight would be 7 consecutive days of gains, something it hasn’t done since July 2020. Then it rallied from under $1800 to $1970 in 8 consecutive days, & topped at $2072 6 days later.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1435 earlier, lifted to 1.1450, USDJPY back over 114.00, & Cable back to 1.3385. AUD & NZD at 5-wk low.

European Open – German 10-yr Bund future up 12 ticks at 170.54, alongside broad gains in Treasury futures. DAX & FTSE 100 futures up 0.1% & US futures outperforming slightly, though there is some lingering anxiety on US warnings of a potential Russian invasion in Ukraine. Inflation concerns also continue to linger, as markets try to map out the future ECB path based on CB comments & official forecast. For BoE, the weaker than expected GDP print yesterday has seen markets scaling back rate hike expectations. Do arguments for an early move remain valid?

Today – EZ Industrial Production, US JOLTS, Uni. of Michigan, ECB’s Lane, Fed’s Williams.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDCHF (+0.22%) Bounced from 0.6460 again today, but remains under 0.6500. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram risning but under 0 line, RSI 53 & neutral. H1 ATR 0.00081, Daily ATR 0.0052.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 15th November 2021.

Market Update – November 15 – Market eyes Geopolitics & Stimulus.

• • USD (USDIndex 02) spiked to 95.25 (new 16-mth high) on Friday. The consumer sentiment data (10-yr low)and JOLTS provided mixed views, with confidence plunging, 1-year inflation rising, and a slip in job openings, but a record 4.4 mln workers quitting their jobs.
  • Stocks hold higher after spike on Friday, amid strong earnings and dip buyers supported, along with a more calm trade in Treasuries. Asian markets also found buyer, Treasury futures re-open positively. China bourses struggled despite a stronger retail sales number.
  • Japan Q3 contracted -0.8% q/q, much more than anticipated -add to speculation that Kisihida will provide a big stimulus package to support the economy.
  • US Yields(10yr trades at 55%, down 0.9bp). Treasury yields have taken a break from their manic gains seen last week, supportive of the equity market, while hopes that inflation is temporary, and that supply chains will improve into the new year have helped investor sentiment as well.
  • Equities steady to Friday’s highs, Dow +0.5%, NASDAQ led the way +1% USA500 +0.7%, Nikkei lifting 0.4%.
  • Big movers; TSLA dip -2.8% (Musk has already offloaded a combined $6.9 billion), J&J +2%, Toshiba -1.0%, Disney -7%. (Disney’s streaming growth disappoints).
  • Johnson & Johnson: split of the company into two divisions, one being consumer health products, the other focuses on pharmaceuticals and medical devices. J&J’s shares are up 2% in early trade. Toshiba TOSYY 1.43% said it planned to split into three by March 2024 in response to shareholder pressure for a more-focused structure, following a similar path taken by fellow industrial conglomerate General Electric Co.
  • US-EU: agreed to end a festering dispute over US steel and aluminum tariffs imposed in 2018, removing a burden on transatlantic relations and averting a spike in EU retaliatory tariffs. – tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% aluminum, while allowing “limited volumes” of EU-produced metals into the United States duty-free.
  • USOil– slipped below $80.00, hit by a strengthening USD and speculation that Biden’s administration might release oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to cool prices.
  • Gold reversed to 1856 from 1868.79 – inflation keeps Gold supported.
  • FX markets – EURUSD & GBPUSD stack to 1448 earlier & 1.3420, USDJPYto 113.98. TRY at the record low level9.99.
  • Focus today:Virtual meeting Link between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden later in the day, with hopes of an easing in ongoing tensions across a range of issues including tariffs imposed on China under former President Donald Trump.
  • Today – The data calendar today includes Eurozone trade numbers, but markets will be more interested in comments from ECB speakers today as ECB’s Lagarde faces questions from lawmakers
    

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) XAUUSD declined from 1868.79 to 1856.24 but remains well 1835 support. Faster MAs flattened, MACD signal line & histogram steadied at 0 line, RSI 49 & neutral, indicating consolidation intraday. H1 ATR 3.96, Daily ATR 22.49.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 17th November 2021.

Market Update – November 17 – USD at 1-yr high with Stocks mix.

• USDIndex up and currently settled at 96.25, after hawkish Fed Bullard and strong retail sales, production and trade prices.
• UK Inflation at the highest in a decade due to energy costs (4.2% y/y VS 3.9% y/y) & strong labour data adding pressure on the BoE to deliver the long flagged rate hike at the December meeting.
• US Treasury Yields rise on overinflation concerns after the data and as expectations were raised for the Fed to quicken monetary policy normalization. – 10-year Treasury rate is up 0.4 bp at 1.64%.
• Bund futures are fractionally lower, on central bank’s dovish stance. – ECB’s Rehn still sees inflation easing next year.
• FED, BoE and BoC seem to be on the same road to rate hikes sooner than many expected!
• China’s developers also remain in focus with local media reporting that Evergrande’s online sales platform has closed some units. Authorities could ease restrictions on funding of developer.
• Treasury Secretary Yellen warned there is little time left for lawmakers to agree on a debt limit deal, reiterating a possible December 3 drop-dead date.
• Equities: Asian shares, were dragged by worries about COVID-19 and higher costs. Topix lost -0.4%.The stronger the dollar the higher costs for imported material for manufacturers.
• Consumer discretion initially paced the gains after Walmart (-2%) and Home Depot beats (+6%), but the USA100 took the baton into the finish and rose 0.76%. The USA500 was up 0.39% with the USA30 0.15% higher. GER30 and UK100 futures are down -0.2% and -0.4% respectively.
• Solid data, along with bullish equity outlooks from Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, all aided sentiment yesterday.
• USOil down to 78.86 floor from 80.66. after US gasoline stocks dropped more than expected last week, potentially heightening pressure on the Biden administration to release oil from emergency reserves to cap soaring fuel prices.
• Gold down to 1849.49.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1263, GBPUSD spiked to 1.3473 but currently in the mid of a 3-day channel, and USDJPY flirts with 115.00 (its strongest since March 2017)
• Focus today: The data calendar also includes the final reading for Eurozone HICP, US Housing starts and building permits and Canadian inflation.

Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (+0.35%) topped to 80.61 above R1. Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD lines turn positive but signal line remains at 0, while RSI is at 67 and rising. H1 ATR 0.101, Daily ATR 0.696.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 22nd November 2021.

Market Update – November 22 – Euro suffers , Stocks steady, Oil squeezed.

• Trade is likely to be thinned this week by Thanksgiving in the United States, but the virus’ resurgence has traders once again monitoring COVID-19 cases and governments’ responses.
• USDIndex at 16-month highs above 96.00.
• Yields: 10-year Treasury rate is up 1.4 bp at 1.57%, while across the Asia Pacific region bonds are mostly higher, despite the prospect of a rate hike from the RBNZ. The 2s, 5s, and 7s also richened measurably ahead of the upcoming auctions and as hawkish comments from Fed VC Clarida and Governor Waller saw gains pared, but the move was short lived.
• China’s PBOC kept the loan prime rate unchanged once again and Covid jitters in Europe weighed on sentiment.
• Equities: Stock markets have traded narrowly mixed, with Topix and JPN225 down -0.08% and up 0.09% respectively. The Hang Seng lost -0.7%, while the CSI 300 lifted 0.5%. US stocks stalled due to mix of earnings news, albeit from record highs, with the USA30 tumbling -0.75%, hitting 35600 lows. The USA500 stabilised at 4713 while the USA100 rallied to 16632.
• USOil dipped to $74.06 lows as countries continue to debate the release of strategic reserves. Reuters report that: “Japanese officials are working on ways to get around restrictions on releasing national reserves of crude oil in tandem with other major economies to dampen prices”.
• Gold down to 1838.55 (S1).
• FX markets – Yen sell off continues with the CHF a notable exception. EUR and GBP weakened. EURUSD at 1.1262, GBPUSD steady below PP at 1.3426.

European Market Update: The 10-year Bund future is down -23 ticks, slightly underperforming versus Treasury futures, while in cash markets the US 10-year rate has lifted 1.2 bp to 1.56%. Stock futures are mostly higher, with the GER30 and UK100 posting gains of 0.1% and 0.2% respectively and US futures slightly outperforming.

The Covid situation in some parts of Europe is escalating again, mainly in those areas with a strong anti-vaccine movement and a low vaccine uptake and protests against nationwide curbs dominated the headlines over the weekend. With little on the data calendar today, Covid developments will likely remain in focus, as they will also play a part in upcoming central bank decisions.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDUSD (+0.74%) retested the 0.7000 area. Faster MAs are currently aligned on the right hand side indicating consolidation, MACD lines hold negative, while RSI is at 51 and Stochastic started falling, suggesting lack of further boost for now. H1 ATR 0.00105, Daily ATR 0.00610.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 23rd November 2021.

Market Update – November 23 – USD & Yields bid, Stocks & Gold sink.

• USD (USDIndex 96.36) testing 16-mth highs; rallied on Powell’s re-nomination & Brainard as Vice FED Chair. Commodity & EM Currencies pressured particularly. Stocks weaker partic. Tech stocks, Banks hold up.(Nasdaq -1.26%). Yields bid, Gold & Oil crashed further. Covid concerns grip Europe as winter dawns.
• US Yields (10yr trades at 1.620%, down 28 bps from yesterday’s rally.
• Equities Lower. NASDAQ -1.26%, USA500 -15 (-0.32%) at 4682 – USA500.F trades lower at 4665.
• USOil – struggles but up from below $75.00, after discussions to release global strategic reserves to cool prices & OPEC talk of raising output.
• Gold crashed over 2.5% losing over $45.00 following Powell news, next support $1800.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1225 earlier, lifted to 1.1255 now, USDJPY over 115.00, earlier now at 114.75 & Cable back to 1.3400, from 1.3380. USDMXN 21.00, USDTRY ATH 12.00, USDRUB 75.00 and USDZAR 15.8600.

European Open – December 10-y Bund future down -28 ticks, underperforming versus US futures & suggesting a further rise in European yields, which already spiked sharply yesterday. The Covid situation may be weighing on the growth outlook, but investors are increasingly convinced that the ECB is indifferent to the spike in inflation & long yields are backing up as central bankers keep a lid on tightening expectations & ECB officials play down the risk of second round effects. DAX & FTSE 100 futures meanwhile are down -0.5% and -0.4% respectively, as the rise in yields & Covid jitters remain in focus.

Today – EUR & US Flash PMIs, BoE’s Bailey & Haskel, ECB’s de Guindos



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.42%) Bounced from 1.6070 yesterday to 1.6150 now rallied to breach 1.6200 Faster MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising and significantly over 0 line, RSI 64 but cooling. H1 ATR 0.00214, Daily ATR 0.01102.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 24th November 2021.

Market Update – November 24 – USD & Yields Higher, Stocks Mixed, Oil Recovers.


Trading Leveraged Products is risky

• USD (USDIndex 96.50) holds on at highs; EM currencies under particular pressure. (TRY lost 15% after Erdogan refused a rate rise). RBNZ raised rates but NZD fell (like the last time they raised rates!) JPY Inflation 2 ticks better than expected. USDJPY at January 2017 levels around 115.00. PMI data better across the globe, Stocks mixed in US & Asia, Yields bid, Oil recovered significantly and Gold pressured by yields. Biden invites Taiwan to its “Summit for Democracy”, WHO talks of additional 700k Covid deaths across Europe (Slovakia latest to talk lockdowns).
• US Yields 10yr trades at 1.667%, down from yesterday’s 1.684% high.
• Equities Mixed. Musk sold more stock, Banks & Oil majors lead. USA500 +7.76 (0.17%) at 4690 – USA500.F trades lower at 4684.
• USOil – rallied over 3% to $78.20 highs despite global strategic reserves being sold to cool prices.
• Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790.
• FX markets – EURUSD down to 1.1245, USDJPY over 115.23, earlier now at 114.88 & Cable back to 1.3375.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 26 ticks, US futures also broadly higher. RBNZ delivered expected rate hike & markets seem to be scaling back fears of escalating inflation as even dovish leaning BoE & ECB members highlight risk of second round effects. ECB VP Guindos highlighted overnight that the drivers of inflation are becoming more structural, which adds to signals that the CB is finally ready to start reining in stimulus. DAX & FTSE 100 futures currently up 0.3% & 0.2% respectively.

Today – Big data day ahead of Thanksgiving Weekend. – German Ifo, US Weekly Claims GDP, PCE, Durables, FOMC Mins. & ECB speak



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) NZDJPY (-0.77%) RBNZ in-line but Dovish, sank from breach of 80.00 yesterday to 79.24, and 79.40 now. Faster MAs aligned lower, MACD signal line & histogram falling & below 0 line, RSI 35 & weak, Stochs OS. H1 ATR 0.17, Daily ATR 0.70.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 25th November 2021.

Market Update – November 25 – Solid US data lifts USD, Stocks, & Yields.

• USD (USDIndex 96.70) holds on at 16-mth highs; Strong set of US data yesterday GDP (2.1%) up a tick but missed by a tick, Claims (199k) at 52-yr low, PCE (0.4% m/m & 4.1% y/y), in-line & largest since Jan.1991, along with a big beat (5.9%) for GDP Price index, Durable Goods (0.5%) in-line, Personal Spending (1.3%) a big beat, Personal Income (0.5%) a beat, Trade balance a big beat (14.6%) on strong Exports, Inventories (-2.2%) a big miss, but shows demand is strong. Consumer Sentiment a beat and New Home Sales flat (745K) and missed.
• Stocks & Yields pushed higher, Oil held onto gains and Gold tested 3-week lows.
• 
  
• The FOMC Minutes showed (1) there could be a faster taper than the $15bn/mth currently planned, (2) Inflation could indeed be “persistent” (3) Clear division over 2022/23 rate hike cycle, Doves hold sway for now.
• US Yields 10yr trades at 1.644%, down from yesterday’s 1.694% high.
• Equities – Gains into the Holiday USA500 +10.76 (0.23%) at 4701 – USA500.F trades higher at 4713.
• USOil – peaked at $78.53 Inventories +1.0 vs -1.7 weakened prices – now at $77.65
• Gold found a floor at 1782, but struggles to recoup $1800 at $1790.
• FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1216, having broken 1.1200, USDJPY now 115.36, from 115.50 & Cable back to 1.3350 from 1.3315 yesterday.

Overnight – JPY PPI (1.0%) hit a 10-yr high, German GDP and consumer confidence both missed (1.7% vs 1.8% and -1.6% vs -1.0%) respectively.

European Open – December 10-yr Bund future up 16 ticks, while US futures are slightly in the red. Bunds already outperformed yesterday, as EZ spreads widened in the wake of hawkish leaning ECB comments & confirmation that German finance ministry will go to the liberal FDP, which likely means more resistance to debt mutualisation across the EZ & more pressure on ECB to limit asset purchases. DAX & FTSE 100 futures are currently up 0.4% & 0.3% respectively & US futures are posting gains of 0.3-0.4%, suggesting markets are coping quite well with the prospect of less accommodative policies. Indeed, it seems to an extent that they welcome the CB’s acknowledgement that inflation risks could be less temporary than previously thought.

Today – ECB Minutes, ECB’s Elderson, Schnabel, Lagarde and BOE’s Bailey



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (0.20%) The rally from Tuesday’s low under 90.00 has been sustained with 91.25 being tested earlier today. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising & over 0 line, RSI 61, H1 ATR 0.077, Daily ATR 0.707.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 29th November 2021.

Market Update – November 29 – Omicron dominates sentiment.

• USD (USDIndex 96.30) recovers from Fridays slump (95.98), Stocks lost over –2.2% in thin half-day trading, Oil FUTS lost –13%, Gold slumped and Yields tanked (10-yr 1.482%) on a safe haven (JPY & CHF bid) risk off day. (and a strange carry trade bid for EUR). Weekend news, as Countries block flights and tighten restricts, but first Omicron cases in SA appear mild and hospitalizations have not spiked, has seen a bounce in sentiment and Asian markets. Pfizer suggested it would take 100 days to adapt new vaccine, if required.
• US Yields 10yr trades up 5.1 bp at 1.52%, after Friday’s slump.
• Equities – tanked in thin and short day on Friday USA500 -106.84 (-2.27%) at 45941 – USA500.F trades higher at 4639.
• USOil – collapsed to $67.08 – now up nearly $4 at $71.00. OPEC+ have delayed this weeks meeting by 2 days & likely to delay planned January production increases.
• Gold spiked under $1780, has bounced to $1795 but struggles to recoup $1800
• 
  
• FX markets – EURUSD now 1.1270, after a +125pip rally on Friday, USDJPY now 113.36, from 115.50 to 113.00 on Friday & Cable back to 1.3325.

Overnight – JPY Retail Sales recover but miss expectations (0.9% vs 1.2% & -0.5% last time).

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is down -27 ticks, US futures are also in the red & the US 10-year rate is up 5.1 bp at 1.52%. Stock markets remained under pressure during the Asian part of the session, but DAX and FTSE 100 futures are up 1.2% and 1.3% respectively and a 1.2% rise in the NASDAQ is leading US futures higher. A part reversal of Friday’s flows then as virus developments remain in focus. Travel restrictions are making a come back and the services sector in particular is facing fresh pain, but as Lagarde suggested over the weekend, the impact of Omicron is unlikely to throw economies back to the situation at the start of the pandemic, meaning the overall situation has not really changed. We continue to see the ECB on course to end PEPP purchases on time in March next year, although developments will add to the arguments of those who want to keep the flexibility on the distribution of asset purchases at least for future emergencies. The BoE meanwhile may be postponing the planned rate hike into next year.

Today – German regional and national CPIs, Eurozone Consumer Confidence (final), US Pending Home Sales, ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel, Lagarde, Fed’s Williams, Powell.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADCHF (1.00%) The risk-off collapse on Friday 0.7400-0.7200 has recovered to 0.7280. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram rising but still below 0 line, RSI 53.80 & rising H1 ATR 0.0018, Daily ATR 0.0062.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

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Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 30th November 2021.

Market Update – November 30– Stocks at ups & downs.


Omicron remains in focus and warnings that it will leave current vaccines far less effective and that it will take time to modify and produce new ones has seen markets adjusting growth forecasts and central bank projections.

• USD (USDIndex 96.00 up from 95.92 low) saw a fresh wave of risk aversion as Treasuries sold off, but cautiously with only a modest back up in yields, & Stocks bounced significantly with the USA100 jumping over 2% intraday with IT a big winner. It closed with a 1.88% gain, with the USA500 1.3% firmer, and the USA30 up 0.68%.
• Wall Street stocks closed higher as investors were hopeful that the Omicron coronavirus variant would not lead to lockdowns after reassurance from US President Joe Biden.
• Moderna’s CEO told the FT that existing vaccines will be less effective and that it may take months before modified vaccines are available at scale. #Moderna +12.73% yesterday.
• US Yields 10- and 30-year rates were up just over 3 bps to 1.51% and 1.859%, respectively, with the 2-year 1bps higher at 0.508% The 10-year is currently corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46%, but it is still in negative territory, at -1.05% on Tuesday, keeping gold’s opportunity cost low.
• Equities – Topix and Nikkei are down -1.0% and -1.6% respectively, Hang Seng lost -2.3%, the CSI 300 -0.6%, while the ASX outperformed with a modest gain of 0.2%.
• USOil – down by 2%, drifted to $66.73 – after FT cast doubt on the efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines against the Omicron – expectations are growing that OPEC+, will put on hold plans to add 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) of supply in January.
• Gold spiked to $1795 – World Health Organization said on Monday carried a very high risk of infection surges.
• #TWTR was UP 12% pre-market on news Dorsey was leaving as CEO – it closed DOWN 2.74%. The USA100 rose+1.88%.
• FX markets – Yen rallied (a new flight to safety), Aussie and kiwi slide. USDJPY at 112.94, EURUSD now 1.1326 & Cable steadied to 1.3300-1.3330.

European Open – The December 10-year Bund future is up 46 ticks, Treasury futures are outperforming and in cash markets the US 10-year rate has corrected -3.9 bp to 1.46% amid a fresh wave of risk aversion. DAX and FTSE 100 futures are down -1.5% and -1.1% respectively, while a -1.1% drop in the Dow Jones is leading US futures lower. In FX markets both EUR and GBP gained against the Dollar. EGB yields had moved higher against the background of improving risk appetite and a jump in German inflation yesterday, but while Eurozone HICP today is likely to exceed forecasts, central bankers have already been out in force to play down the importance of the number for the central bank outlook and rate expectations. Virus developments will also help to take the sting out of the number.

Today – German labour market data, EU Inflation, Canadian GDP and US Consumer confidence are due today. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen are due to testify before the US Senate Banking Committee at 15:00 GMT.



Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) AUDJPY (-0.68%) Risk-sensitive currencies slid and safe havens gained. AUDJPY dropped to 80 lows (S2). Currently MAs point rightwards, MACD signal line & histogram below 0, RSI rising above 30 but Stochastic OS. Hence a mixed picture intraday.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 2nd December 2021.

Market Update – December 2- Sentiment swings on Omicron news.


Powell reiterates Hawkishness, First case of Omicron confirmed in US – Stocks tank again under key technical levels, Yields slip again, USD mixed. Erdogan sacks Fin Min – TRY new all-time lows, Apple iPhone 13 demand weakens, GSK anti-viral drug remains active vs. Omicron

• USD (USDIndex 96.08) rotates through 96.00 due to lack of firm data regarding Omicron, markets reamin on edge. Stocks fell significantly with USA100 down over -1.83% USA500 -1.18% (-54pts) 4513 (opened the day +1.1%) and broke 50-day MA first time since October 14 & USA30 off 461 pts and under 200-day MA first time since July 13 2020.
• US Yields 10-year rates were down over 7 bps to 1.40% before recovering to 1.434% now.
• Asian Markets – Asian markets have traded mixed. Topix and Nikkei are down -0.5% and -0.7% respectively. The ASX lost -0.1%, but Hang Seng and CSI 300 are up 0.2% and 0.3%. Shenzen and Shanghai Comp are slightly lower though as officials seem eager to close a loophole used by tech firms to list abroad.
• USOil – continues under pressure, down to $64.50 yesterday – recovered to test $66.35 today – awaiting OPEC+ meeting later.
• Gold Up day yesterday but remains pressured testing $1775 now
• FX markets – Yen rallied USDJPY dipped to 112.70, back to 113.31 now, EURUSD now 1.1312 & Cable pressured 1.3192 low yesterday – 1.3275 now.

European Open – The 10-year Bund future is up 30 ticks, outperforming versus Treasuries, which remain pressured by the hawkish turn at the Fed. The 10-year Treasury yield has lifted 3.0 bp overnight, but at 1.43% remains far below the levels seen ahead of the Omicron scare, which the WHO seemed to try and play down somewhat. DAX and FTSE 100 down -1.1% and -0.9% respectively in catch up trade with the slide on Wall Street yesterday, while US futures have found a footing and are posting gains of around 0.6-0.8%.

Today – EZ Unemployment Rate, US Weekly Claims, Fed’s Bostic, Quarles, Daly, ECB’s Panetta, JMMC/OPEC+ meetings.




Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.77%) Risk-sensitive currencies remain volatile, from a slide to 87.85 yesterday, today a rally to 88.60. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram under 0 but rising, RSI 56 & rising, OB. H1 ATR 0.188, Daily 0.98.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

 

[HFM]

Date : 3rd December 2021.

Market Update – December 3 – Pre-Omicron peak NFP?


In the foreign exchange market, the US Dollar Index remained range-bound, but was subsequently boosted by Yellen and Bostic’s speeches and closed at 95.97. In addition, the 10-year US Treasury yield rebounded 4 basis points to 1.44%.

In terms of non-US currencies, the Euro hovered around 1.13 against the US Dollar; the British Pound closed up 0.16% to 1.3297 against the US Dollar; the US Dollar ended a 4-day losing streak against the Yen to close at 113.16; the New Zealand Dollar and the Australian Dollar have been hovering at low levels throughout the year and closed at 0.6813 and 0.7091 respectively; the US Dollar and Canadian Dollar remained stable at a high level of 1.28; the US Dollar and Swiss franc continued to test the previous low level of 0.92.

In the precious metals market, spot gold fell below the 1770 level to $1769 per ounce; spot silver held steady above the 8-week low at $22.33 per ounce.

In the oil market, OPEC+ decided to keep the output increase of 400,000 barrels per day unchanged in January next year. US crude oil fell to a minimum of 62.20 US dollars, and then rebounded more than 7% to 67.01 US dollars/barrel.

Key recent events:
The labor market has grown moderately, and the Dollar has regained support and rebounded.

Yesterday, the number of layoffs at challenger companies in the United States in November fell further by 7,947 to 14,875, a record low since May 1993. In addition, as of the week of November 27, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits recorded an increase of 222,000, which was lower than the market’s expectation of 240,000. After the data was released, its previous value was also revised down to an increase of 194,000 (previously an increase of 199,000). Judging from the four-week average, the number of people applying for unemployment benefits was 238,750, which was lower than the previous value of 251,000 (pre-revision: 252,250).

Overall, these data reflect the continued moderate growth of the US labor market, and may benefit the non-agricultural data that will be released later today. The market predicts that after the November seasonal adjustment, the non-agricultural employment population will record an increase of 555,000, slightly higher than the previous value of an increase of 531,000, the unemployment rate will record a five-month consecutive decline to 4.5%, and the employment participation rate will rebound by 0.1% to 61.7%, the average weekly working hours remained at 5.0%, and the average hourly wage rate and monthly rate increased by 5.0% and 0.4%, respectively.

In addition, the market will continue to track news about the Omicron virus strain. According to foreign media reports, cases of infection with the mutant strain have been found in the states of Minnesota and Colorado. However, despite the fact that Omicron has been pointed out as having a very high transmission capacity and leading to the risk of a further surge in infections, President Biden gave the market a shot in the latest speech and said that the government will not re-impose the lockdown measures. Judging from the known clues, the current Omicron variant is not likely to cause fatal symptoms to most patients (especially those who have been fully vaccinated), but because this new variant is still relatively new, uncertainty remains for now.

In addition, Treasury Secretary Yellen and Atlanta Fed President Bostic were hawkish. The former stated that it would be “prepared to abandon inflation temporarily” and that the strong US economy will prompt interest rate hikes; the latter stated that if inflation stays near 4% next year, the Fed may raise interest rates more than once. The US Dollar Index rebounded on the eve of the non-agricultural report and ended at 96.07.

Today – EZ, UK, US Markit Services PMIs, EZ Retail Sales, US and Canadian Labour Market Reports, US ISM Services, US Factory Orders, ECB’s Lagarde, Lane, BoE’s Saunders, Fed’s Bullard



Biggest FX Mover @ (06:30 GMT) EURNZD (+0.32%) From a high @ 1.6680 & slide to 1.6570 yesterday, back to resistance today at 1.6650. Currently MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram struggle with 0 line, RSI 56 & cooling. H1 ATR 0.0020, Daily 0.0131.

Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

Click HERE to READ more Market news.

Stuart Cowell
Head Market Analyst
HotForex

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.