Is China Heading For A Fall?

[ituglobal]

In any economy, no matter how strong and how well-managed, there would be periods of boom and gloom. The US economy is not performing very fine, yet it doesn't mean the country would collapse. This is also true of China. No economy can continue to grow year after year or quarter after quarter - there'll be some slowing down, before new recovery. We don't need to create false alarms. Man countries are far worse than China and USA and they still survive.

 

[Fxpipper]

It's not about false alarms but if the current rate of inflation keeps up..
Yes, other nations have survived the inflation-deflation balloon, that's why the market always corrects itself in the end..
Simply put, no one's claiming China, India, US and other nations are going to go to the cleaners rather that the market is due for some correction and in the case of some, it's bound to happen a lot sooner..

 

[Rambo35]

It's not about false alarms but if the current rate of inflation keeps up..
Yes, other nations have survived the inflation-deflation balloon, that's why the market always corrects itself in the end..
Simply put, no one's claiming China, India, US and other nations are going to go to the cleaners rather that the market is due for some correction and in the case of some, it's bound to happen a lot sooner..

I agree with you on the part of the correction. I expect a rather big one over the next 36 months on a global scale.

 

[Fxpipper]

One would think that the latest news of "Trade surplus" vis-a-vis Spain is good news but it really is not. What it means is that the imports are drying up, a result of the current euro economic crisis and the market is reacting to this..
This is why, when it comes to economic data, you need to evaluate it carefully, in order to understand how the market's going to react.

 

[Rambo35]

I think most are fooled by the headline numbers and do not even understand how to dig into the report in order to comprehend what it really states.

 

[Fxpipper]

Yeah, kind of like your daily dose of "Buy real estate on mars before it is all gone, end of world is near?"..most of the economic news needs to be evaluated carefully and not get fooled by the headlines and this is why so many traders (who trade on fundamentals) find it hard..
It takes time, patience and a few years of real time trading experience to able to analyze the global cues correctly..

 

[Rambo35]

Yeah, kind of like your daily dose of "Buy real estate on mars before it is all gone, end of world is near?"..most of the economic news needs to be evaluated carefully and not get fooled by the headlines and this is why so many traders (who trade on fundamentals) find it hard..
It takes time, patience and a few years of real time trading experience to able to analyze the global cues correctly..

I myself checked out the real estate market on mars but opted for neptune instead...getting crowded on mars.

 

[evaa.soraya]

no i think china's economy is still going strong. proof is the increase in employment rate.

I'm not sure if china going fall...
china have very good business in all around the world...
china is strong in their economic than usa and europe..

 

[reed]

I agree with, though they have issues now, they can always bounce back.

 

[Fxpipper]

Of course all the economies, from Argentina to Zanzibar can bounce back if handled correctly. We have all seen instances of how printing excess paper money devalues the currency which in turn affects the prices.

Now, with China, it is not a case of excess paper money but excess investment in infrastructure, which they have been doing for the last few years. China is cashing on government debt, securities to speed up it's economy. Problem: Most of the investments do not provide any returns and some of the infrastructure projects just lay dormant, the perfect example would be the cube, olympics.

How does china have the funds to finance the infrastructure projects - well, that's mainly on account of the current value of its currency and now you can see why China would prefer to keep it that way.

So what's in store? Funds, which should have been spent on development, are going to dry up and unless the currency is allowed to float, the chinese bubble is going to burst.

 

[Rambo35]

I don't think China will collapse, they will go through usual ups and downs but in general I am very optimistic about China going forward.

 

[GeorgeCode]

I think the general consensus is that China's economy is on the up, although there are varying opinions.

 

[rohmatul]

Yes, i'm sure China is strong on their economic..
Their economic is more powerful than USA...
USA is on recession, but the white house hinder these from the world...

 

[Fxpipper]

I don't think China will collapse, they will go through usual ups and downs but in general I am very optimistic about China going forward.

There's not going to be any complete collapse of the economy, rather the chinese market is headed for a sharp correction after which, it will be back to business as usual.

 

[Rambo35]

There's not going to be any complete collapse of the economy, rather the chinese market is headed for a sharp correction after which, it will be back to business as usual.

Corrections offer good opportunities, so let's see what happens.

 

[Fxpipper]

Yes they do and that's the point. Only the savy traders and economists would be aware of the upcoming correction and can take the corrective steps. Where as the general population would end up facing extreme hike in prices, rampant inflation, etc.
Russia nearly went hungry after the end of cold war and break up of soviet union, thanks to the bubble being pounded into the ground by Gorbachev. While most of Russia suffered for those few month, the big guys still got their pound of whatever..

 

[Rambo35]

Yes they do and that's the point. Only the savy traders and economists would be aware of the upcoming correction and can take the corrective steps. Where as the general population would end up facing extreme hike in prices, rampant inflation, etc.
Russia nearly went hungry after the end of cold war and break up of soviet union, thanks to the bubble being pounded into the ground by Gorbachev. While most of Russia suffered for those few month, the big guys still got their pound of whatever..

The majority has it always wrong when it comes to trading.

 

[nurfakih]

Do china economic will fall??. Im not sure about it..
china have huge and strong of economic..

 

[Fxpipper]

Again, it's not a question of collapse..rather more of an implosion. The market always corrects itself and yes, the chinese government exerts a strong control over the economy but despite this, there will be a correction.

 

[JohnyStan]

China went through the very difficult period last year and now there are a lot of place for recovery even to the previous level. It's worth noticing that though China is one of the main consumers of raw materials from Australia, this country depends on export only for 17%.
Another thing to consider is way China will chose to recover. If it will be producing more quality products decreasing the numbers of cheap export, they might face the situation when demand for goods will go down as well. But if they will keep manufacturing the low quality products in the previous amounts, they can come back to the situation when they were overstock with the useless staff that they have no place to sell