LiteForex Analytics

[AlexanderLiteForex]

XAG/USD: Technical analysis of 24.05

1. Current trend

Silver continues trading in the downward channel. At the beginning of the week silver reached new lows, going down to the level of 20.34 USD per ounce and leaving the limits of the channel. However, almost immediately, silver regained lost positions. The decline was driven by strengthening of the American currency and rumors about curtailing of the asset purchase program.
Most technical indicators show the decline. Stochastic is in the overbought zone, the line %K has crossed the line %D, indicating decline. The signal line and histogram of MACD indicator show sideways movement, while moving average lines also indicate decline.

2. Levels of support and resistance

At the moment the pair is testing resistance level of 22.60. If this level is broken down, the pair will go up to 22.90 and 61.8 Fibonacci. The nearest support level is 22.0, which is a strong level that should prevent further decline in price.

3. Trading tips

It makes sense to place pending orders to buy at the level of 22.00, aiming to take profit at the level of 23.
If the price consolidates above the level of 23.40, it is advisable to place buy orders..


Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

GBPUSD: expected rebound up to 1.5000

1. Current trend of GBPUSD

Last Friday the pair was still declining because of the positive statistics of the Nonfarm Payrolls. In spite of the estimated 162 000 the figures had reached the level of 195 000. Favorable figures consolidated American dollar and GBPUSD fell to the new local minimum 1.4855. After an abrupt descent investors are apprehensive about depositing to the oversold pound. However if we consider future macroeconomic data, the pound will have an opportunity to restore its position. Leaders of Bank of England are going to broach an issue of changing of monetary policy. The majority makes a stand against increasing the volume of asset purchase program, referring to positive macroeconomic statistics and British economic recovery.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

In the near future it is probable for the pair to go down and to reach key support level. The fall will be followed by a considerable rebound up to 1.5000, 1.5050. Many analytics and investors assume the consolidation up to 1.5200 to the begging of August. We also can not ignore the possibility of resistance level of 1.4840 breakdown. This scenario is highly probable if The Bank of England decides to enlarge the asset purchase program or if the third round of Quantitative easing of FRS curtails.

3. Best entry/exit points

It is suggested to open long positions with Take Profits at 1.5000-1.5050.

4. Supporting facts

MACD histogram on the four-hour chart is in the negative zone under the zero lineand is directed downwards. It means the “bearish” trend will continue.

Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USDCAD

USDCAD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-Sen line is below Kijun-Sen line and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo-cloud is descending. Since yesterday the pair has been falling, but this morning we can see a small rebound. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-Sen line (1.0433). One of the previous extremums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.0195.

USDCAD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, but the blue one is directed downwards. Chinkou Span line approaches the price chart from above; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. After long rise the pair has collapsed and broken down Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen levels. The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be the upper border of the cloud at 1.0279-1.0263. The closest resistance level is Kijun-Sen line (1.0372).

Key levels

Support levels: 1.0195, 1.0279-1.0263.
Resistance levels: 1.0433, 1.0372.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the price has slowed down, but we expect a new “bearish” impetus. On the chart with higher timeframe a confirming signal to sell will appear as soon as Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines are crossed or Chinkou Span line crosses the price chart.

Anastasiya Glushkova

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUDUSD

AUDUSD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, the red line is directed upwards, but the blue one stays horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current Kumo is ascending. Since yesterday the price has been fluctuating within a channel corresponding to the cloud. A strong resistance level is flat Kumo top at 0.9191. The resistance level is Senkou Span A line (0.9127).

AUDUSD, D1

Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, and the price is squeezed between them. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current Kumo is descending. Kijun -sen line remains the closest resistance level at 0.9351. One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.8816.

Key levels
Support levels: 0.8816, 0.9127.
Resistance levels: 0.9191, 0.9351.


Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the price is still within the cloud borders, it is not advisable to open new trades. The further movement of the price will be determined by the breakdown of one of the cloud borders. The chart of the higher timeframe confirms the descending trend.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

GBPUSD: Reversal of the trend

1. Current trend

This Thursday British currency was strengthening. Startled by the Bernanke’s speech investors were buying pound. Demand of dollar has decreased. Negative statistics on labor market has affected American currency. Unemployment claims haven’t confirmed the forecast and had risen up to 360 000. Under the pressure of these facts the pair GBPUSD hit 1.5200. Today we anticipate European news — an industrial production index. Among the macroeconomic statistics from US we highlight Producer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment Index and we’re waiting for the speech of FOMC member Bullard.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

The pair has consolidated around resistance level at 1.5200; we expect further descending correction towards support levels 1.5100-1.5050. A strong rise is highly unlikely. Despite the prolongation of QE program dollar is supported by positive economic statistics and won’t probably fall. The reversal of the trend seems to be the most obvious scenario. After slight decline the pair will go all the way up to 1.5310.

3. Best exit/entry points

We suggest to open long trades with Take Profits at 1.5310. Pending orders can be placed at 1.5100-1.5050 with Take Profits at 1.5300.

4. Supporting facts

MACD histogram on the four-hour chart has moved to positive zone, it is above signal line and is directed upwards. This is a sign of trend reversal.

Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of GBPUSD

GBPUSD, H4

On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current Kumo is ascending. Since last week the pair has been rising strongly. Tenkan-sen (1.5320) and Kijun-sen (1.5231) lines are support levels. One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.5433.

GBPUSD, D1

Let’s look at the daily chart. Last week Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line and they are directed towards each other. Chinkou Span is approaching the price chart from below. After considerable fall the pair reversed, broke through Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines and hit flat bottom of the cloud. Senkou Span B line becomes a strong resistance level at 1.5379. Kijun-sen line is the closest support level at 1.5268.

Key levels
Support levels: 1.5320, 1.5231, 1.5268.
Resistance levels: 1.5433, 1.5379.



Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we can see a development of upwards movement. Long trades can be opened with Take Profit orders at 1.5433. On the daily chart the price has slowed down before flat bottom of the cloud. The breakthrough of this level will produce a signal to buy. However if the price bounce off this line, the pair will go down to 1.5268.
Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of LiteForexGroup of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

XAUUSD: gold regains lost positions
1. Current trend

Gold has grown since the beginning of this trading week, steadily consolidating above the level of 1300.00 USD per troy ounce. Gold is a traditional safe haven against risks of inflation and weakening in the national currencies. Precious metal will in the advantageous position if governments continue to pursue monetary easing policy. Amid victory of the ruling party in Japanese election and due to comments by Ben Bernanke, gold has strengthened positions and is likely to continue growth.
Technical indicators show that gold has all chances for further rise. All three moving average lines are directed upward. The signal line and histogram of MACD indicator are in the positive zone. Stochastic is in the oversold zone, both of its lines are directed downward, suggesting a chance of correction.



2. Levels of support and resistance
Pushing off from resistance level of 1340.00, the price is moving down to the level of 1321.00. Next support level is 61.6% of Fibonacci. The main target of the “bulls” is the level of 1370.00, which coincides with the level of 38.2% Fibonacci.

3. Trading tips
At the moment, the pair may experience downward correction to 1321.00 or lower up to 1300.00. It makes sense to place limit buy order at these levels. Buy orders can be placed if gold exceeds the level of 1340.00.

Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

NZDUSD: pair will continue to rise

1. Current trend

The pair NZDUSD has started this week with a growth and hit two-month maximum at 0.8010 on Tuesday. This level corresponding to the upper border of the ascending channel hasn’t been broken through. The price is being corrected now due to the unfavorable date on China manufacturing index. Its rate in July is 47,7 points, but the experts expected it to be 48,6 points.



2. Support and resistance; entry/exit points
Regardless sudden downward correction “bullish” movement is most probable today. The price may rise up to 0.8010, 0.8050 and even 0.8100 levels. We recommend to open long trades at 0.7990 with Take profits at 0.8100.

3. Technical indicators

On the four-hour chart Bollinger Bands do not show any important divergence and are directed upwards. Upper line of the indicator corresponds to the border of an uprising channel. Price chart can’t break through MA which is also a support level. MACD histogram is in overbought zone and has crossed the signal line from above. It can be a sigh of temporary fall but not the reverse of the trend. Stocahstic lines have crossed giving a signal to short-term sell.

Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

EURUSD: data from China has weaken the pair

1. Current trend

This Tuesday pair EURUSD has risen and reached resistance level at 1.3240, but the level hasn’t been overcome. The pair has started downward correction due to the negative statistics on China manufacturing index. Its rate in July is 47,7, which are the worst figures since three years ago. Unfavorable news from Heavenly Empire confirms the fears of investors. Economic recession of one of the world powers can affect USA as well as European countries. Today we anticipate flash manufacturing index of Eurozone and new home sales in USA.

2. Support and resistance;
The pair is trading around 1.3200 level. Today we expect the price to go up to 1.3240 and 1.3320. However temporary slide-down to Bollinger Bands MA at 1.3170 is also possible. Then the price can reverse and start to rise. We would recommend to open long positions with Take Profit orders at 1.3320. Short-term sell trades can be opened at 1.3200.
3. Technical indicators

On the four-hour chart Bollinger Bands do not show any important divergence and are directed upwards. Price chart is directed towards MA; it can be a sign of decrease to 1.3170 level. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines have crossed giving a signal of temporary fall.

Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

USD/CAD: general analysis

1. Current trend

Today the pair demonstrated rapid rise, correction reached the level of 50.0% Fibonacci. Though there weren't any important events in the economic calendar that could have triggered this rise. Therefore correction will end soon and «bearish» trend is likely to continue. Canadian statistics will also support the rise: experts expect the increase of the construction permits and the rise of the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector.
Forecast for the US economy is not so optimistic: it is expected that volume of consumer lending will drop to 15.4 billion USD; as per the report of the Ministry of Energy oil and oil products inventories will also decline.


2. Levels of support and resistance

The pair is trading around strong resistance level of 1.0440, from which the pair will probably go down. It is likely that downward movement will reach the level of 1.0382, where the midline of the “Bollinger bands” indicator is located.

3. Trading tips

I would advise to sell at the current price with the target at 1.0382. The price is unlikely to exceed this level today. Later, the price will probably reach the level of 1.0329.

Kamil Avad
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

USD/JPY: reduction of Japanese current account surplus has weakened the pair

1. Current trend of USD/JPY

The currency pair USD/JPY has been weakening this week. Today the price has reached six-week lows at the level of 96.20. The decline was driven by the data on the current account balance in Japan. At the end of June budget surplus was higher than the previous value, but below experts’ expectations, amounting to 0.65 trillion yen. This fact triggered the decline in the pair. On the other hand, Chairman of the Bank of Japan confirmed intention to increase monetary base by 60-70 trillion yen annually.

2. Important levels: support and resistance

The pair is trading near support level of 96.00. During the day the pair may experience upward correction to the level of 97.00. However it is more likely that the decline will continue down to the levels of 96.00 and 95.20. In the current situation it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 95.20.

3. Technical indicators

On the daily chart Bollinger bands demonstrate divergence, confirming downtrend. However, the price chart has broken down the lower line twice, indicating a chance of upward correction. MACD histogram has moved to the oversold zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines have also moved to oversold zone (20), giving a buy signal.

Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

GBP/USD: Carney has opened new horizons

1. Current trend

Yesterday’s speech by the head of the Bank of England Mr. Carney has triggered high volatility in the national currency rate. First market’s reaction to his statement, that interest rate will not be raised until unemployment rate reaches the level of 7%, was negative. According to projections of the bank of England this level will be achieved not sooner than Q3 2016. The pair fell to the level of 1.5204.However, later, after the inflation report the pair rose up to the level of 1.5500.The Bank of England has changed GDP forecast to1.5% against the previous forecast of 1.2% in 2013 and to 2.5% instead of 1.9% for 2014.

Technical indicators show that the major obstacle to the further rise is the level of 1.5500. This level coincides with the level of 23.6 Fibonacci. If the level of 1.5500 is broken down, the growth may reach the level of 1.5800.


2. Support and resistance

The nearest support levels are 1.5500, 15475 and 15450, while the main target of the “bears” is 1.5400. Key resistance levels: 1.5550, 1.5580 and 1.5600.

3. Trading tips

At this stage we can expect testing of the level of 1.5500. If breakdown of this level takes place, the pair may grow up to 1.5800. Otherwise the pair may experience correction to the level of 1.5400.

Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend
The pair USD/CAD had reached the lows of 1.0967 and started to rise gradually. Experts believe that high oil price and gradual recovery of the US economy have had positive impact on the CAD. The pair is also supported by Canadian macro-economic statistics, showing that unemployment rate fell by 0.2%, exceeding the forecast. In addition, volume of tax revenues is increasing: this index has risen by 9.3% on annual basis.
This week, Canadian authorities are planning to approve budget for the next 2 years. The main objective is to reduce trade balance deficit and reach surplus level. According to economists this goal is feasible, since Canadian economy has weathered the crisis better than other countries, holding stable position. It is assumed that country’s GDP in 2014 shall grow by 2.2%.

Support and resistance
Support and resistance levels are the bottom (1.0967) and the top (1.1224) limits of the channel respectively.

Trading tips
It is advisable to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.0967 with protective orders at 1.1029 and a target of 1.0835.

Dmitry Agurbash
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

GBP/USD: USD will continue to grow

Current trend
Last Friday the pair GBP/USD went up despite negative macro-economic statistics on British production output. The pair was supported by the US labour market statistics. It became known that number of new jobs outside agricultural sector decreased to 113 thousand against the forecast of growth of 185 thousand. The Pound gained over 100 points against the USD and consolidated at the level of 1.6410. Today’s economic calendar is uneventful; however attention shall be paid to the data on overdue mortgage payments in the USA.

Support and resistance
Growth in the pair is likely to be temporary, while the USD will continue to grow regaining Friday’s losses. In the medium-term the pair will gradually fall to resistance level of 1.6250 and Fibonacci line of 50% (1.6170).
Support levels: 1.6250, 1.6170, 1.6100, 1.5920.
Resistance levels: 1.6430, 1.6540, 1.6600, 1.6660.

Trading tips
It is recommended to place sell orders with profit taking at 1.6250-1.6170.

Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

USD/JPY: technical analysis

Current trend
At the beginning of last week the pair had reached local highs of 100.70 and despite all bears’ attempts, this level prevented decline in price. After that the pair started to go up and by the end of last week it reached the level of 102.50. At the moment the pair is trading at the level of 102.35. The “bulls” will probably try to break down resistance level of 102.50. Technical indicators give conflicting signals: Stochastic lines are directed upwards, while MACD histogram is moving along the zero line with the minimum volumes.

Support and resistance
Support levels are 102.15 and 101.90; the latter one coincides with the Fibonacci line 23.6% and is the main target of the “bears”. The nearest resistance level is 102.50, which is the key level, obstructing further growth and preventing the rise in pair tonew highs. This level will be followed by 102.75, 102.90 and 103.00.

Trading tips
The pair is likely to trade in the sideways channel for some time. Long positions are recommended after consolidation of the price above the level of 102.55. Pending orders “Buy Limit” can be placed at the level of 101.90.

Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

EUR/USD: downtrend will continue

Current trend

On Monday, European currency continued to rise against the USD. The pair slowly rose all day despite the decrease in volume of industrial output in France. Additional support to the pair was provided by the rise in investor confidence index in Eurozone: the index was far above negative forecast of 10.3 points, reaching the level of 13.3 points. Due to this fact EUR/USD rose to 1.3670.
European macro-economic statistics is not scheduled for release today; while American data on inventories at wholesale warehouses, number of vacancies and level of labour flow will become known. However, the key event will take place on Thursday, when Janet Yellen will make semi-annual report on monetary policy.

Support and resistance

Volatility is not expected to be high today because of lack of fundamental news. The pair has actually reached key support level of 1.3700 (highs of February 2013). In future EUR/USD will rise slightly and after that the pair will push off from resistance level of 1.3700 and go down to the local lows of 1.3470 and 1.3400.
Support levels: 1.3550, 1.3470, 1.3400 and 1.3300.
Resistance levels: 1.3700, 1.3800 and 1.3830.

Trading tips

It is advisable to place sell orders with profit taking at the levels of 1.3470-1.3400.

Dmitry Likhachev
Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
Yesterday the pair slightly grew against a backdrop of positive data on French and Italian manufacturing production volumes. Then unfavourable macroeconomic data was released in the US: the small business optimism index dropped to 97.9 points, and new non-farm payrolls reduced to 5.03 million.
Today, market participants are waiting for the results of the Eurogroup meeting that will be held at 19:30 (GMT+2). The meeting will cover the questions related to the Greek situation and possible solutions to the Greek current economic crisis. Market participants do not hurry to open big volume positions ahead of the Eurogroup meeting.

Support and resistance
Yesterday the pair slightly grew against a backdrop of positive data on French and Italian manufacturing production volumes. Then unfavourable macroeconomic data was released in the US: the small business optimism index dropped to 97.9 points, and new non-farm payrolls reduced to 5.03 million.
Today, market participants are waiting for the results of the Eurogroup meeting that will be held at 19:30 (GMT+2). The meeting will cover the questions related to the Greek situation and possible solutions to the Greek current economic crisis. Market participants do not hurry to open big volume positions ahead of the Eurogroup meeting.

Trading tips
Selling positions should be opened with the nearest target at about 1.2220 after a powerful resistance level at 1.1270 has been broken. Consolidating above a level of 1.1340 will signal a beginning of an ascending movement. In this case, bulls will attempt to assault a level of 1.1360.

Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of [url deleted]LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Brent: general overview

Current trend

Brent crude oil dropped to a level of 53.82 yesterday owing to the news from the Middle East. Oil exporting countries are still competing for the market. Two OPEC members Iran and Iraq announced the highest discounts on hydrocarbons at the same time. The discount Baghdad intends to make on its Basrah Light crude is $4.1 higher than the one its Middle Eastern competitors are offering. National Iranian Oil reduced the price of 1bbl by $2.1.

The increased world oil stocks and oil producing countries' output remain a strong factor that puts pressure on oil quotes. According to the US Department of Energy, oil stocks increased by 4,87 million barrels last week. The analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected an increase of only 3.75 million barrels. The output volume increased and amounted to a daily record of 9.23 bbl last registered in 1983. The US took the lead in oil producing and outperformed Russia according to the results of the year 2014.

Nevertheless, Brent quotes managed to undergo correction and rise above an important psychological level of 55 dollars. The price is currently located near a level of 57.00.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 57.37 (maximum of the Asian session), 60.00 (important psychological level), 62.00 (important psychological level), 63.49 (maximum of 18th December 2014).

Resistance levels: 55.97 (minimum of the Asian session), 53.82 (yesterday's minimum, 50% Fibonacci retracement), 52.30 (61,8% Fibonacci retracement, middle line of Bollinger bands), 50.00 (important psychological level).

Trading tips

If the current trend continues, short positions may be opened from a level of 57.40 with the nearest target at about 59.00. If the level 55.90 is firmly broken, Brent will head for the levels 54.00 and 52.30, from which an ascending movement can resume as part of technical correction.

Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD

NZD/USD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines have merged above the cloud and remain horizontal, reflecting the uncertainty of the market. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The closest support level is merged Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines (0.7399). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.7487.

NZD/USD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. The pair has been corrected above Tenkan-sen line (0.7330), which is a support level now. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (0.7532).

Key levels
Support levels: 0.7399, 0.7330.
Resistance levels0.7487, 0.7532.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the price can’t break down strong support level of 0.7399. On the daily chart we can see a correction of the downward movement. Target for the short-term buy orders is 0.7532.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend
GBP/USD has been growing within a range of 1.5196-1.5422 throughout the past week. As a result, the trading session closed at 1.5396. This week started with a positive gap that was overlapped afterwards. Then the pair resumed growth.
The absence of important macroeconomic data on the UK accounts for a prevailing sideways movement of the pound against the American dollar today. The market is expected to come to a standstill ahead of tomorrow's publication of UK key economic indexes.

Support and resistance
Quotes are still moving within the upper Bollinger band on the H4 chart. A value of 1.5439 is now a resistance level whose breakdown will allow the pair to grow to the level of 1.5475 and probably 1.5570.
Support levels: 1.5380, 1.5335, 1.5300.
Resistance levels: 1.5439, 1.5475, 1.5570.

Trading tips
Long positions should be opened once the price chart has crossed a level of 1.5439, with an exit at 1.5475. Sell below 1.5380 with a target at 1.5335.

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[i]Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited