LiteForex Analytics

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Rewiev USD/CHF

USD/CHF, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from above; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The pair is slowly rising, being corrected along the way. Tenkan-sen line is the closest resistance level (0.9234). Support level will be Kijun-sen line (0.9296).

USD/CHF, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from below; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The pair is trading within a sideways channel. Tenkan-sen line is the closest support level (0.9269). The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud (0.9829).

Key levels
Support levels: 0.9269, 0.9296.
Resistance levels: 0.9234, 0.9829.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the pair is slowly moving upwards, but on the daily one we can see a correction of the downward trend. Even if the pair continues to trade within a sideways channel, price chart will break through the cloud at the end of the week, giving a signal to buy. Meanwhile, short-term buy positions can be opened at current price with targets around 0.9322.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of [url deleted]LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Rewiev EUR/USD

EUR/USD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is approaching the price chart from above. Current cloud has recently reversed from descending to ascending. The pair is trading within the cloud, borders of which become support (1.1346) and resistance (1.1402) levels.

EUR/USD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart, current cloud is descending. After long fall, the pair is being corrected to the level of Tenkan-sen line. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line (1.1471). One of the previous minimums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 1.1203.

Key levels
Support levels: 1.1346, 1.1203.
Resistance levels: 1.1402, 1.1471.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart the pair is trading within the cloud, on the daily one we can see a correction of the downward movement. Pending sell orders can be placed below the lower border of the cloud (1.1346) with target at 1.1203.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of [url deleted]LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of XAU/USD

XAU/USD, H4
Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is descending. The pair has broken through Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, the latter becomes a support level (1216.88). The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud (1227.81).

XAU/USD, D1
On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is also below Kijun-sen, the red line is directed steeply down down, while the blue one remains horizontal. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; Senkou Span A and Senkou Span B lines have merged prior to the cloud reversal. The pair has bounced of the upper border of the cloud (1205.78). Tenkan-sen lineis the closest resistance (1221.52) level.

Key level
Support levels: 1216.88, 1205.78.
Resistance levels: 1221.52, 1227.81.

Trading tips
On the four-hour chart we can see the beginning of trend reversal, on the daily on the pair has bounced of support level of Senkou Span A line. Short-term buy orders can be placed at current price with targets at 1221.52 and 1227.81.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst at [url deleted]LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of EUR/USD

EUR/USD, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair has broken through the cloud and is still rising. The closest support level is the upper border of the cloud (1.0789). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 1.0430.

EUR/USD, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. After long fall the pair has been corrected above Tenakn-sen line, which is now a support level (1.0738). The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 1.0959.

Key levels

Support levels: 1.0789, 1.0738.
Resistance levels: 1.1030, 1.0959.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart we’ve got a signal to buy, however, on the daily one Bearish trend is still strong. Long trades can be opened at current price with targets at 1.0959 and 1.1030.

Anastasiya Glushkova
Analyst of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

Gold quotes continue to rise slowly as Fed failed to provide information on the dates of an interest rate rise at the latest meeting. An important resistance level is at 1200.00 and coincides with M200 moving average. If the price consolidates above it, it may continue to grow to 1250.00-1265.00.

On the whole, as many experts believe, gold remains a perfect asset for increasing money due to low interest rates worldwide. If Asian economies carry on growing, the demand for gold will continue to increase and the price may reach a level of $2000.00 per troy ounce in the next few years. The second factor that could lead to the appreciation of gold in the long term is central banks' desire for buying up the precious metal. Seventy-five tons of gold per year approximately has been bought up in recent years. It's also worth noting that the gold trading centre may move to China. Not all international investors may participate in gold trading due to local restrictions, but experts think that their cancellation is only a matter of time.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level is still at 1195.15 – 1/8 (1/8 Murray)
The nearest support level is at 1187.50 (8/8 Murray)

Trading tips

Go long after a level of 1195.15 is broken and place protective orders near a level of 1187.00 with a target at 1245.00.

Dmitriy Agurbash
Analyst of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

EUR/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

EUR/USD clawed back a part of lost positions after yesterday's fall. The dollar was supported on Tuesday after publication of statistics for US inflation. Core consumer price index grew by 1.7% year-on-year and by 0.2% month-on-month. Both indexes were higher than expected. Today, market participants are waiting for February's data on US durable goods orders that are forecast to decrease.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators are pointing to the end of a correctional upward movement on the H4 chart. Bollinger bands are diverging, confirming the continuation of a downward movement. The MACD histogram is located in the positive zone, but its volumes are reducing, pointing to sellers' growing influence.

The resistance levels are: 1.0975, 1.1030, 1.1085, and 1.1140.
Support levels: 1.0890, 1.0855, 1.0810, 1.0765.

Trading tips

The price is very likely to drop soon to a level of 1.0890, the moving average of Bollinger bands. If the level of 1.0890 is firmly broken, sellers will attempt to assault a level of 1.0855. In case of consolidation below the latter, the price may continue falling to 1.0810 and 1.0765.

Vadim Smarzh
Analyst of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

European currency continues to strengthen against the USD despite negative news from Greece. The USD is under pressure caused by the outcome of the Fed FOMC meeting. Interest rates have been left at the previous level, as expected. Market participants were disappointed as Fed officials did not give any indications of timing of the increase in interest rates. Amid these facts Euro broke out important resistance level of 1.1000 and reached the level of 1.1230. However, today’s decision of the rating agency Moody's to downgrade rating Greek state bonds to the level of Саа2, has reduced trading activity of the buyers of European currency. At the moment, EUR is traded in the range of 11169-1.1189. According to the rating agency the balance between economic and financial risks in Greece is deteriorating, which can put pressure on Euro.

Support and resistance

The nearest resistance level: 1.1230 – 8/8 Murray level.
Support level: 1.1169 – 7/8 Murray level.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 1.1150 with protective orders at 1.1180 and the target of 1.1024.

Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

GBP/USD: review and movement forecast

Current trend

At the last trading session the Pound has slightly dropped against the USD. Due to lack of important macro-economic statistics and prolonged rise in the pair, investors decided to take profit and close long positions. Therefore, yesterday’s decline was of technical nature. Additional pressure on the pair was caused by positive data on applications for unemployment benefits in the USA. Their number amounted to 262 thousand, which was significantly less than expectations of 290 thousand.
Today’s economic calendar is not very eventful. Nevertheless, in the afternoon, business activity index in the U.S. manufacturing sector ISM for April will become known.

Support and resistance

On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands demonstrate convergence, confirming that the existing downtrend will continue. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are rapidly decreasing, which suggests that sellers’ influence is increasing.

Resistance levels: 1.5360, 1.5400, 1.5440 and 1.5490.
Support levels: 1.5300, 1.5270, 1.5215 and 1.5170.

Trading tips

If the existing trend continues, it is recommended to open sell positions from the current levels with the nearest target of 1.5270. Breakdown of the level of 1.5270 will enable movement in price up to the level of 1.5215. Upward movement can continue only after consolidation of the price above the level of 1.5400. In such circumstances the “bulls” will try to bring the pair back to the highs of the past week at the level of 1.5500.

analytics of LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

USD/JPY: analysis and forecast

Current trend

At the trading session last Friday, the pair USD/JPY reached two-week highs at the level of 120.28. The American currency went up, despite some negative US statistics, which demonstrated that PMI remained at the previous level of 51.5 points last month, while experts expected the rise in the index to 52.0 points. According to Reuters/Michiga, consumer sentiment index also remained at the previous level of 95.9 points, which was lower than the forecast of 96.0 points.
Today’s attention of the market participants will be focused on the U.S. news on the dynamics of production orders. It is expected that this index will increase and reach the level of 2.0%, which will provide support to the USD. A speech of the member of the Fed Open Market Committee, Mr. Evans, will be also of interest. He will probably give his opinion about the timing of the interest rate increase.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 120.28 (Last Friday’s highs), 120.84 (highs of 13 April), 121.52 (highs of 17 March), 122.02 (highs of 10 March).

Support levels: 119.55 (middle line of Bollinger bands), 119.00 (important resistance level), 119.55 (bottom line of Bollinger bands, lows of 30 April).

Trading tips

It makes sense to open buy positions after breakdown of the level of 120.28 with the first target of 120.84 and the next one at the level of 121.50. Sell positions are advisable after breakdown of the level of 119.55 with the targets of 199.00 and 118.49.

Analytics of LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

AUD/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

Last week, volatility in the pair AUD/USD was high. At the beginning of the week the pair had grown and reached the level of 0.8075. However, the pair failed to break through the resistance level, and it gave the “bears” a chance to quickly win back lost positions. After that the USD has been growing and by the end of the week the price reached the level of 0.7875. It became known today that the Bank of Australia has decreased interest rate to 2.0%. Market’s reaction to this news was ambiguous. At first the price went down to the level of 0.779; however, later it rose up to 0.7910.

Following the minor correction the pair has consolidated above the level of 0.7875, which coincides with Fibonacci retracement of 61.8%. It is also a strong support level. The “bulls” will try to maintain existing pace and will make an attempt to push the price higher up to the level of 0.7910. The “bears” will aim at breaking down and consolidation above the level of 0.7875.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 0.7910, 0.7950 and 0.8000.
Support levels: 0.7875, 0.7850, 0.7840 and 0.7825. The level of 0.7875 is the key level of the “bears”.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7865 and from the level of 0.7950. Buy positions are recommended if the price breaks down the level of 0.7960.

Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

EUR/USD: review and forecast of the price movement

Current trend

At the yesterday’s trading session European currency significantly strengthen against the USD despite positive statistics on the business activity index in the US service sector. In April this index has exceeded both the forecast and the previous value, reaching the level of 57.8 points. On Wednesday, the pair continued to rise and reached the level of 1.1269 and then corrected. Now, the pair is at the level of 1.1230.

Apart from the speech of Mrs. Janet Yellen, the head of the US Fed, economic calendar is uneventful today.

Support and resistance

On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands demonstrate slight divergence, which confirms the downward correction can reach the moving average line at the level of 1.1180. MACD histogram is in the positive zone; its volumes are slowly increasing, which indicates continuation of the rise in price. It is likely that in the near future downward correction will continue.

Resistance levels: 1.1270, 1.1290 and 1.1340.
Support levels: 1.1170, 1.1220 and 1.1060.

Trading tips

Sell positions can be opened from the current levels with the nearest target of 1.1170. Breakdown of this level will open the way to 1.1120. It is also possible that the price will reverse from the level of 1.1170 and in this case the growth in price can go back to the recent highs of 1.1270 and 1.1290.

Analytics of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

GBP/USD: technical analysis

Current trend

This week has been one of the most difficult for the Pound in the time period of the downtrend. Monthly chart shows that the price currently reached one of the most important level of 1.5200.
Given current price movement in the downtrend within correction, the levels of 1.5200-1.5230 is the zone of Fibonacci retracement of 23.6%, which is the first level of correction. A lot will depend on the results of today’s election in the UK, and the American labor market statistics, which will become known tomorrow.
If the price goes up, next resistance level will be 1.5600, which coincides with 38.2% of Fibonacci retracement. If downtrend in the Pound resumes (which will be possible in case of breakdown of the levels of 1.5130 and 1.5030), the Pound will go to the local lows at the level of 1.4630.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart histogram OsMA is declining trying to reach zero level. As soon as it goes to the negative zone, it makes sense to open sell positions. Stochastic is in the sell zone; however the fact line has crossed the slow line from top to bottom, which gives a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1.5250, 1.5370, 1.5440 and 1.5530.
Support levels: 1.5130, 1.5030 and 1.4940.

Trading tips

It makes sense to buy the pair in case of breakdown of the level of 1.5250 with take profit at 1.5440 and 1.5530. Sell positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 1.1530 with the targets of 1.5060, 1.5030, 1.4940 and 1.4630.

Analytics of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of Brent

Brent, H4

Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen from above, forming trend reversal pattern “Dead Cross”. Chinkou Span line has crossed the price chart from above; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. The pair is trading around Senkou Span A (65.69) line and is trying to enter the cloud. The closest resistance level is Tenkan-sen line (66.91). The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be the lower border of the cloud at 64.02.

Brent, D1

On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen, both lines are horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current Kumo-cloud is ascending. After long fall, the pair has been corrected under Tenkan-sen line, which is now a resistance level (66.94). Kijun-sen line will be a support level (61.97).

Key levels

Support levels: 64.02, 61.97.
Resistance levels: 66.91, 66.94.

Trading tips

On the four-hour chart the pair is going to enter the cloud, on the daily chart the pair is falling towards Kijun-sen line. Targets for the sell positions are around 61.97.

Analytics of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

USD/CAD: prices of futures for oil are increasing

Current trend

On Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute (API) reported the decline in the commercial inventories of oil in the USA by 2 million barrels. Futures prices of oil are rising despite negative forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA). The decline in the USD against other currencies, which continues since mid-April, provides support to the oil prices. Recall that the Canadian dollar is considered a commodity currency; therefore it is very sensitive to the fluctuation in oil prices.

Current situation is favourable for the Canadian currency; therefore it is strengthening against the USD. If we take 18 March as a starting point, the decline amounted 800 points. Currently, the pair is traded at the level of 1.1970, which coincides with 38.2% Fibonacci. Breakdown of this level can trigger further decline in price. A strong indication of the downtrend will be the consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1870, which goes along the line ЕМА200 on the daily chart. In this case the targets will be at the levels of 1.1720 (Fibonacci 50%) and 1.1470 (Fibonacci 61.8%). Indicators (OsMA, Stochastic channels and trend) on the periods of Н1, Н4 and Daily will suggest that short positions are advisable.

Support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.1970 and 1.1870.
Support levels: 1.2025, 1.2040, 1.2085, 1.2110, 1.2140 and 1.2180.

Trading tips

Limit sell orders are recommended at the levels of 1.2000, 1.2025 and 1.2040. Sell positions can be opened after breakdown of the level of 1.1970 with the target of 1.1930.
Buy positions are advisable after breakdown of the level of 1.2085 with the targets of 1.2110, 1.2140, 1.2180 and 1.2280.

Dmitriy Zolotov
Analyst of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

GBP/USD: analysis and forecast

Current trend

The main driver of yesterday’s movement in the market was poor data on the US retail sales for April. This index (which shows the changes in the volume of retail sales) was below the forecast, as it fell to 0.0% against expectations of 0.2%. Retail sales index excluding sales of the automobiles amounted to 0.1% against the forecast of 5%.
Some important British news was also released yesterday: in the monthly inflation report, the Bank of England has downgraded forecast of GDP growth from 2.7% to 2.4% for 2016 and from 2.9% to 2.6% for 2017. The timing of the interest rate increase was rescheduled for the mid-2016. After the release of the report by the British regulator, the Pound fell to 1.5647, and later reached the level of 1.5633, amid the American news. Nevertheless, by the end of the day the pair GBP/USD has regained lost positions rising up to 1.5743.
At today’s Asian session the USD declined versus all major currencies, and after breaking down resistance level of 1.5750, the pair GBP/USD is traded at the level of 1.5780. It is expected that the pair will move in the uptrend, as there is no important news scheduled for the release on Thursday.

Support and resistance

The indicator OsMA also suggests buy positions (rising histogram in the daily timeframe). Stochastic and trend indicator of the green color shows long positions on D1.
However, it is worth paying attention to the daily chart of the cross-pair EUR/GBP, where the Pound is declining against the USD. Therefore, it is recommended to open buy positions if the pair GBP/USD rebounds to the levels of 1.5750, 1.5725 or 1.5700. The nearest targets can be at the levels of 1.5800 and 1.5900 (Fibonacci 50%). The signal of the completion of the downtrend and development of the uptrend is the breakdown of Fibonacci level of 38.2% (1.5595). In case of the uptrend the pair will be targeted at the level of 1.6200. As an alternative scenario we can consider the decline in the Pound to 1.5595 (Fibonacci 38.2%) or further down to 1.5540 (ЕМА200). After breaking down EMA144 (1.5380) the Pound can continue downtrend.

Resistance levels: 1.5750, 1.5900, 1.6000 and 1.6160.
Support levels: 1.5595, 1.554 and, 1.5380.

Trading tips

It is preferable to place buy orders with the nearest targets of 1.5800, 1.5850 and 1.5900. However, it is better to enter into long positions at the rebound to the levels of 1.5750, 1.5725 or 1.5700. Sell positions with the targets of 1.5540 and 1.5440 are advisable after breakdown of the level of 1.5595.

Analystics of LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

EUR/USD: technical reversal of the trend has increased demand for Euro

Current trend

Throughout a month European currency has been growing against the USD amid weakening in the American currency. The data on all sectors of the American economy shows slowdown of economic growth. The decrease in demand for the USD has provoked investors into buying the Euro and the Pound.
Additional support to European currency has added favourable data on the key indices of Germany, France and Europe as a whole. The number of industrial orders on Germany has grown. GDP of France has exceeded all expectations. From the technical point of view the pair EUR/USD has broken down all possible resistance and technically reversed downward trend.
Attention today shall be focused on the US news on the industrial production, capacity utilization and consumer sentiment index. The rise in yields on government bonds in Germany will add attraction to the Euro.

Support and resistance

It is likely that the USD will win back some of the losses and the pair will reach the level of 1.1280. The trend will remain upward. Next week, information on the key indices of Eurozone can inspire investors and the pair may continue upward movement with the target of 1.1600. Most of the indicators show the rise in the pair; the volume of the long positions continues to grow. In the medium-term uptrend will continue with the transition to the consolidation stage.

Support levels: 1.1280, 1.1215, 1.1150, 1.1075, 1.1020 and 1.0920.
Resistance levels: 1.1385, 1.1450, 1.1540, 1.1600 and 1.1670.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions at the current price from the key support levels of 1.1250 and 1.1150 and take profit at the level of 1.1600.

Analitics of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

GBP/USD: the pair remains in the ascending channel

Current trend

In the mid-April the pair had reached the local lows, after which the pair reversed and went up. The rise in the pair was caused by favourable macro-economic British data. Over a couple of weeks the Pound gained over 900 points versus the USD and after that the pair corrected downwards. Later, the pair continued to rise and exceeded the key resistance level. Investors noticed the change in trend and started to open long positions. Last week, the Pound traded at the level of 1.5815 (the local highs of last November) against the USD.

During this week the British currency fell against the USD amid negative data on the key British indices. The pair had dropped over 150 points and continued to decline.
Today, attention should be paid to the data on the US construction sector. On Wednesday the minutes of the Bank of England will become known, The UK retail sales data will be released on Thursday. Mark Carney, the head of ECB will make a speech on Friday. First of all focus attention on the minutes of the Bank of England. If they reflect favourable economic situation in Q2, it will add support to the British currency.

Support and resistance

Despite significant decline in the pair today, uptrend continues and the Pound is still rising against the USD to the resistance levels of 1.5875, 1.5920 and 1.6000. However, it is possible that the pair will sharply go down after the release of the minutes of the Bank of England.

Support levels: 1.5530, 1.5495, 1.5440, 1.5355, 1.5300 and 1 .5250.
Resistance levels: 1.5610, 1.5675, 1.5750, 1.5800, 1.5815, 1.5875, 1.5920 and 1.6000.

Trading tips

It is recommended to open long positions with stop-loss below the key support level of 1.5495 and take profit at the levels of 1.5815, 1.5920 and 1.6000. In addition, it is also advisable to place pending sell orders below the level of 1.5495, on the breakout caused by fundamental data.

Analystics of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

USD/JPY: the East is a delicate matter

Current trend

Despite the ups and downs of the world currencies against the USA, the pair USD/JPY is notable for the stable movement in the channel of 122.00–116.00. Deviations in both directions as a rule do not exceed 120 points. On the one hand, it is easy to make forecast in this conditions, supposing further movement in price in the range of 121.20–118.80; on the other hand, it is difficult as in the long-term a lot will depend of the interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan.
Currently, the interest rate of Japan is 0.1%. In the short-term monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will remain soft; however, in case of deterioration of economic statistics the interest rate can be lowered.
This morning at 02:50 (GMT+3) the pair was supported by the Japanese GDP for Q1 (real GDP rose by 2.4% in January-March against the forecast of growth by 1.5%).Tokyo stocks and Nikkei went up.
At 21:00 (GMT+3) the minutes of the US Open Market Committee (FOMC) will be released. If the minutes give positive assessment of the economic and financial situation in the USA, the pair will get additional support and in case of breakdown of the level of 121.20, the price will reach the level of 121.50, the growth can continue up to 122.00 until the end of the week.
If the US news is negative, the pair will go to the bottom limit of the channel at 118.80, on its way breaking down the levels of 120.00, 119.80 and 119.30. However, it is unlikely that the pair will go further down.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 118.80, 119.60 and 120.00.
Resistance levels: 121.20 and 121.50.

Trading tips

It is recommended to place pending orders BuyStop at the price 121.20 with the targets of 121.50 and 121.75.
Alternative scenario: pending orders SellStop at the price of 120.50 with the targets of 120.00, 119.60, 119.30 and 118.80.

Ilya Lashenko
Analyst of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

USD/CHF: after the 15th of January

Current trend

If we trace movement of the pair USD/CHF since 15 of January when the National Bank of Switzerland decided to decouple the rate of the national currency from the Euro, we will notice that the pair is trying to reach 0.9450, moving in the channel of 0.9720-0.9120. Despite the efforts of the Swiss regulator to weaken the national currency, Swiss Franc continues to act as a safe haven. Nevertheless, the pair remains vulnerable to the events in the USA and Eurozone.

During today’s Asian session the USD has corrected versus the major currencies after the release of the minutes of the US Fed meeting on Wednesday, which says that the increase in the interest rate is unlikely in the mid of the year. The leaders of the US Fed expressed doubts about the necessity of the interest rate increase after the release of the US negative statistics last week.

In the medium-term the pair is supported by positive attitude of the market to the USD, negative interest rates of Switzerland and the threat of intervention from the National Bank of Switzerland.

However, the rise in the pair USD/CHF is restricted by the demand for Franc in the declining pair of EUR/CHF. In May, the index of economic sentiments in Switzerland demonstrated growth (–0.1 versus –23.2 in April, as per ZEW Credit Suisse), which also supports Franc.

Support and resistance

On the four-hour chart the price has rebounded from the levels of 0.9410 (ЕМА200) and 0.9365 (ЕМА144) and is now moving down to the nearest resistance level of 0.9285. The indicators OsMA and Stochastic are in the sale zone.

Уровни поддержки: 0.9365, 0.9410, 0.9450
Уровни сопротивления: 0.9285, 0.9245, 0.9120

Trading tips

For the period while the market is affected by the minutes of the US FOMC meeting, it makes sense to open short positions with the nearest targets of 0.9285 and 0.9245 and long-term target of 0.9120. Future dynamics will depend on the market’s attitude to the USD. The bottom limit of the downward channel (green color on the daily chart) is at the level of 0.8900. Alternative scenario is the movement in the pair to 0.9720, after breakdown of strong resistance level of ЕМА200 and the price level of 0.9450.

Analystics of [url deleted] LiteForex Investments Limited

 

[AlexanderLiteForex]

EUR/USD: Mario Draghi calls for more vigorous actions

Current trend

During the European session the USD was not declining any more to the major currencies except for the Euro, which has significantly grown. At 09:00(GMT+3) GDP of Germany became known. In Q1 this index rose by 0.3% on the quarterly basis and by 1.1% on annual basis, which shows economic recovery in Eurozone. Note that according to the forecast, GDP of Eurozone will rise by 1.5% and in 2016 and 2017 by 2%.
The chairman of the European Central Bank Mario Draghi asked governments of the European countries to apply all efforts for reforming economies in their countries. The pair EUR/USD has reached the level of 1.1200 and now the chances of growth in the pair has increased due to the uncertainty of the US Fed in regards to the issue of tightening momentary policy.

Support and resistance

On the last trading day of this week volatility is high, which has been demonstrated at the Asian and European sessions. The currencies demonstrate mixed trading against the USD. Technical picture can be changed by the fundamental data today. It is better to stay off board today.
On the four-hour chart Euro is traded near support level of 1.1090 (ЕМА200) and 1.1125 (ЕМА144). If the US data, which are going to be released today, will be negative, Euro will rise and go up to the today’s highs at the level of 1.1200 and can go further up to the resistance level of 1.1290 (23.6% Fibonacci). On the daily chart the pair is near the middle line of the upward corrective channel (green color). The Upper limit of this channel goes across resistance level of 1.1525 (ЕМА144). The bottom limit of the channel is at the level of 1.0860.

Resistance levels: 1.1200, 1.1290, 1.1350 and 1.1410
Support levels: 1.1090 and 1.1125

Trading tips

If the resistance level of 1.1090 is broken down, the pair will go down to 1.1020 and 1.0860 and 1.0720. Sell Stop orders can be placed at the level of 1.1050 with the nearest targets of 1.1020 and 1.0980.
As an alternative scenario the pair can go up to 1.1200 and 1.1290. Breakdown of the level of 1.1290 (23.6% Fibonacci) will open the way to 1.1450 and 1.1525 (ЕМА144).

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