LiteForex Analytics

[LiteForex Official]

GBP/USD: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the Pound fell against the US Dollar.
The USD was supported after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5% in line with expectations, while the Nonfarm Payrolls amounted to 211 thousands that was better than forecasted 200 thousands though less than the previous figure of 298 thousands. At the same time, yesterday’s data on the Consumer Credit Change showed a decrease to 15.98 billion Dollars, which was worse than its forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production and BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the UK, and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings in the US.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.5000 (30 November lows).
The nearest resistance level is at 1.5080 (moving average with 50 period).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.5000 and stop-loss at 1.5080.

 

[LiteForex Official]

XAG/USD: in correction

Current trend

Yesterday on COMEX, the price of March futures on silver fell by 21.6 cents.
The pair remains under pressure amid expectations of an interest rate hike in the US in December this year and a further cycle of gradual monetary policy tightening in the US in the next year. In addition, the price of silver is pressured by falling commodities and oil prices.
Due to the absence of important macroeconomic publications today and prior to meetings of the Bank of England and the Swiss NB that are due tomorrow, the pair will continue moving along a sideways channel.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the XAG/USD pair is falling along a descending channel with the lower border below the level of 13.50.
An upward correction in the pair can continue up to the levels of 14.40 (ЕМА144), 14.50 (ЕМА200 on the 4-hour chart). At the same time, a breakdown of the level of 14.00 (year lows) will accelerate the fall and sends the price to 12.30, 13.00 (2009 lows).
On the daily and weekly charts, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions, while on the 4-hour chart they start turning to purchases indicating that the upward correction can continue.
Support levels: 14.00, 13.80, 13.50.
Resistance levels: 14.40, 14.50, 14.80, 15.30.

Trading tips

Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 13.95 with targets at 13.50, 13.20 and stop-loss at 14.10.
Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 14.30 with targets at 14.40, 14.50, 14.75 and stop-loss at 13.95.

Current trend

The price of

 

[LiteForex Official]

USD/JPY: pair fell

Current trend

During the last two days the pair substantially fell.
The pair was pressured by strong data on Machinery Orders for October in Japan that grew by 0.7% and significantly exceeded forecasts. In addition, the Yen is supported be revised data on the GDP for the third quarter that showed a 1% growth, the Consumer Confidence Index for November that increased to 42.6 points and Labour Cash Earnings that grew by 0.7%. At the same time, demand for the Yen as the safe-haven currency could increase prior to meetings by the Bank of England and Swiss NB that are due tomorrow.
Strong macroeconomic data can push the Bank of Japan to postpone further monetary policy easing that will also support the Yen.

Support and resistance

The pair remains above the strong support levels at 122.60 (EMA144), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci correction), 122.35 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakdown of which would send the price towards 122.15 (EMA50 on the daily chart). A farther fall is restricted by support levels at 121.50 (50% correction), 121.35 (ЕМА144), 120.60 (61.8% correction, EMA200).
On the 4-hour and daily charts OsMA and stochastic recommend sales.
Support levels: 122.60, 122.50, 122.35, 122.15, 121.50.
Resistance levels: 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50.

Trading tips

Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 123.10 with targets at 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 122.80.
Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 122.50 with targets at 122.35, 122.10, 121.80, 121.00, 120.70 and stop-loss at 122.80.

 

[LiteForex Official]

NZD/USD: general review

Current trend

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decreased its key interest rate from 2.75% to 2.5% in line with expectations. However, the NZD grew against the USD and approached last week highs.
In its Rate Statement, the regulator stated that it expects stability in the near future with regards to the interest rates. The RBNZ is not going to dismiss completely an option of further policy easing if needs but it is unlikely to happen soon, which is a positive factor for the national currency.

Support and resistance

On 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain below the price and directed up indicating an upward trend in the pair. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes are gradually growing. DI lines of the ADX indicator are crossing each other and directed down.
Support levels: 0.6719, 0.6675, 0.6659 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands, MA50), 0.6636 (MA100), 0.6578, 0.6470, 0.6428.
Resistance levels: 0.6747, 0.6787 (last week high).

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.6719 with the target at 0.6675 and stop-loss at 0.6747.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.6747 with the target at 0.6787 and stop-loss at 0.6719.

 

[LiteForex Official]

USD/JPY: review and forecast

Current trend

Though expectations of a hike at the upcoming Fed meeting are growing, the JPY has strengthened.
Futures traders are putting an 87.2% chance of a hike in US interest rates. At the same time, many investors suggest that a continuous growth in the USD has ended since a rate increase is obvious and already priced into the markets. In this situation, many market participants prefer taking profits on USD long positions.
The Japanese currency and the country's economy also gain support from low commodity prices.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price has formed a Pin-bar that suggests a possible correction after downward movement.
Support levels: 121.00, 120.50, 120.00.
Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 123.00.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 121.00 with targets at 120.50, 120.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.00 with targets at 122.30, 123.00 and stop-loss at 121.70.

 

[LiteForex Official]

XAU/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the pair was trading in the range 1076.43-1069.34 and closed at opening levels, but today managed to overcome the support level at 1072.23 and falling.
Today data on Retail Sales is due in the US. According to forecasts, the index will grow by 0.2%, which if confirmed will pressure the XAU/USD pair.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the middle and bottom MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone suggesting a fall. ADX also signals the decline as DI lines cross each other, while the ADX line is moving down.
Support levels: 1055.87 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1053.21, 1046.57 (last week low).
Resistance levels: 1072.23 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1086.41 (this week high), 1096.71, 1105.84, 1125.28, 1138.12.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1055.87 and stop-loss at 1072.23.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1072.23 with the target at 1086.41 and stop-loss at 1067.00.

 

[LiteForex Official]

USD/JPY: review and forecast
Current trend
Having opened this trading day with a growth, the US Dollar started declining in the European session. However, later on, an upward dynamics resumed. The American currency is strengthening amid a fall in oil and precious metals prices.
Recently, BOJ Governor stated the Regulator might continue easing monetary policy to stimulate wage growth in Japan. The next BOJ meeting is due on 17-18 December, while the Fed announces its interest rate decision on 16 December.
Support and resistance
After a growth at the opening of the trading day, the USD/JPY pair has started declining towards the support level of 121.50 (Fibonacci 50.0%) during the European session.
However, when the correction ends and OsMA and Stochastic indicators on the daily chart turn up, the pair is likely to resume its growth within an upward channel on the daily chart.
Support levels: 121.50, 121.35.
Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 122.50.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.10 with targets at 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50 and stop-loss at 121.80.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 121.25 with targets at 121.00, 120.70 and stop-loss at 121.55.

 

[LiteForex Official]

EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The Fed holds its finial meeting of the year on Wednesday. Many market participants expect a hike in US interest rates, so if the forecast is confirmed, the European currency is likely to weaken.
However, as long as inflation has not reached the target level of 2% yet, it might be seen as a determining factor for a forthcoming decision. Another negative aspect is Manufacturing PMI which came in below the key level of 50 points. This data might indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
Thus, in its decision making, the Fed will consider labor market statistics, inflation rate and the world economic situation.
Support and resistance
Since the opening of the trading day, the European currency has been slightly declining against the US Dollar.
The key resistance level is still at 1.1040 the breakout of which would allow the price to continue growing towards 1.1150-1.1200.
Support level: 1.0925.
The nearest resistance level: 1.1055.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0925 with the target at 1.0875 and stop-loss at 1.0950.

 

[LiteForex Official]

EUR/USD: general analysis
Current trend
The Fed holds its finial meeting of the year on Wednesday. Many market participants expect a hike in US interest rates, so if the forecast is confirmed, the European currency is likely to weaken.
However, as long as inflation has not reached the target level of 2% yet, it might be seen as a determining factor for a forthcoming decision. Another negative aspect is Manufacturing PMI which came in below the key level of 50 points. This data might indicate a slowdown in economic growth.
Thus, in its decision making, the Fed will consider labor market statistics, inflation rate and the world economic situation.
Support and resistance
Since the opening of the trading day, the European currency has been slightly declining against the US Dollar.
The key resistance level is still at 1.1040 the breakout of which would allow the price to continue growing towards 1.1150-1.1200.
Support level: 1.0925.
The nearest resistance level: 1.1055.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0925 with the target at 1.0875 and stop-loss at 1.0950.

 

[LiteForex Official]

AUD/JPY: pair resumed its decline
Current trend
The AUD/JPY pair has declined from its local lows, reached in the first week of December. The Japanese currency has gained support form speculations over the upcoming Fed meeting. Though a hike in US interest rates is forecasted, investors suggest market reaction might be different than expected. It is possible that monetary policy tightening has already been priced into the market.
Last week, the Australian currency was growing only on Thursday amid the publication of unexpectedly favorable labor market statistics for November. Employment Change came in at 74.1K while a decline in the indicator by 10.0K had been forecasted. Unemployment Rate was down to 5.8% from 5.9% against expectations of an increase to 6.0%.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator on the daily chart is turning down, while the price range is widening. However, the indicator has formed a signal for an upward correction. MACD keeps its downward trend. Stochastic is near the border of the oversold zone and trying to turn up.
It is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals.
Support levels: 87.00, 86.45 (10 November low), 86.00, 85.69, 85.00.
Resistance levels: 87.30, 88.00, 88.60, 89.12 (10 December high), 89.59, 90.00, 90.34, 90.71 (4 December high), 91.00.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout and consolidation above the level of 87.30 with targets at 88.00, 88.60, 89.00 and stop-loss at 86.70. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 87.00 with the target at 86.00 and stop-loss at 87.50. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForex Official]

AUD/USD: general review
Current trend
Since the beginning of the week, the pair is growing.
Today the pair was supported by strong data from Australia. New Motor Vehicle Sales for November grew to 6%, while the House Price Index came out in line with forecasts at 2%. At the same time, the pair is pressured by expectations of the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due tomorrow. Markets expect rates to be increased that would add to the pressure on the pair.
Today attention needs to be paid to the Consumer Price Index in the US. Volatility on the market is expected to be low.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the middle and upper MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 100 and 144 periods are above the price and directed horizontally. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and its volumes remain almost unchanged. ADX indicates pair’s decline, DI lines cross over and directed down.
Today, the pair is expected to remain within the range of 0.7247-0.7302.
Support levels: 0.7247 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands, MA50), 0.7182, 0.7159 (this week low), 0.7133, 06984, 0.6908.
Resistance levels: 0.7280, 0.7302 (MA100), 0.7343 (last week low), 0.7353, 0.7385.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 0.7280 with targets at 0.7302, 0.7343 and stop-loss at 0.7260.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 0.7247 with the target at 0.7182 and stop-loss at 0.7280.
Scenario validity – 1-2 days.

 

[LiteForex Official]

USD/CAD: review and forecast
Current trend
On Monday, the USD/CAD pair hit its highest levels in more than 11 years. The demand for the US Dollar is strong ahead of the Fed meeting. The Canadian Dollar, in its turn, is under enormous pressure from falling oil prices.
Most investors expect a hike in US interest rate by 0.25 basis points. It is the tone of Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen’s comments that still raises doubts. If she points to a slow-paced series of rate increases, the USD will strengthen slightly. Otherwise, in case of a more hawkish view, a surge in the USD is expected.
Consumer Price Index is due today in the US. In monthly terms, zero inflation is expected; in annual terms, analysts forecast an increase from 0.2% to 0.4%. More positive data will strengthen the USD.
Later on, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz gives his speech. Low oil prices are strongly affecting the country’s economy, and the Regulator might reduce its interest rate to minus -0.5%. If such a possibility is confirmed, the CAD would weaken more against the USD.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, a doji pattern has formed that suggests the possibility of a downward correction.
Support levels: 1.3675, 1.3623, 1.1355.
Resistance levels: 1.3780, 1.3823, 1.3900.
Trading tips
Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3785 with targets at 1.3825 and 1.3900.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.3675 with targets at 1.3630 and 1.3560.

 

[LiteForex Official]

USD/JPY: pair returned to growth

Current trend
Yesterday the USD/JPY pair significantly strengthened. Trading in the pair was very volatile due to a large number of macroeconomic publications that was coming out and approaching US Fed meeting at which, as expected, the regulator will increase its key interest rate.
The pair was supported by strong data on consumer inflation in the US. The Consumer Price Index for November grew from 0.2% to 0.5% that was better than economists forecasted.

Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is slowly narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a buy signal. Stochastic bounced off the oversold zone and growing.
The indicators recommend long positions.
Support levels: 121.48, 121.00, 120.56, 120.34 (14 December low), 120.00 (22 October low), 119.62, 119.39.
Resistance levels: 122.00 (local high), 122.22 (11 December high), 122.60, 122.93, 123.35, 123.66 (2 December high), 124.00.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 122.22 with targets at 123.25, 123.66 and stop-loss at 121.40. Validity – 2-4 days.
Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 122.00 with targets at 121.00, 120.50, 120.30 and stop-loss at 122.60. Validity – 2-3 days.

 

[LiteForex Official]

GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Yesterday, the British Pound declined against the US Dollar. The pair was under pressure amid the publication of favorable statistics on Redbook index which grew by 1.5% from the previous 1.9%. Consumer Price Index was up by 0.5% that is 0.1% above the forecast.
Today, attention needs to be paid to Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings data, released in the UK. Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 5.3%.
However, the most important news is due in the US – the Fed announces its interest rate decision. Amid this publication, the market will be highly volatile. However, until the Fed decision is released, the pair is likely to continue moving down.
Support and resistance
The nearest support level is 1.4965 (8 December support level).
The resistance level is 1.5082 (MA24, 4 December low and 7 December high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.5046 with the target at 1.4965 and stop-loss at 1.5082.

 

[LiteForex Official]

EUR/USD: waiting for Fed meeting
Current trend
Yesterday the pair fell and lost about 150 points, which was the result of a publication of strong data in the US. The Consumer Price Index grew to 0.5% that was 0.1% higher than forecasts. Today attention of traders is focused on the Fed meeting where the regulator could increase its key interest rates for the first time since 2006. Usually, a rate increase significantly supports the national currency.
The Fed Interest Rate Decision is due at 9 pm (GMT+2), its press conference is planned for 9:30 pm (GMT+2). Very high volatility is expected on the market.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the pair is trading between the lower and middle MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 100 and 144 periods remain below the price and directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone but its volumes are rapidly falling.
Support levels: 1.0907 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.0871 (MA100), 1.0794, 1.0565, 1.0527.
Resistance levels: 1.0930 (MA50), 1.0970 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.1035 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.0959 (current week high).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0907 with the target at 1.0800 and stop-loss at 1.0930.
Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.0970 with the target at 1.1035 and stop-loss at 1.0930.
Validity – 1 day.

 

[LiteForex Official]

EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend
The single European currency continues declining against the US Dollar. The main factor which affects the EUR/USD pair is the Fed’s decision to raise interest rates by 0.25 points. Moreover, Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated that more rate hikes are possible over the next year if US economy continues strengthening. Therefore, the European currency will remain under pressure for quite a long period of time.
Economists suggest that US Unemployment Rate will decline to 4.7% during 2016-2018, while economic growth will reach the level of 2.2%.

Support and resistance
Support level: 1.0858 (1/8 Murray level).
The nearest resistance level is 1.0900 (0/8 Murray level).

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.0800 with the target at 1.0740 and stop-loss at 1.0825.

 

[LiteForex Official]

AUD/USD: in contracting triangle


Current trend
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised US interest rates. This decision confirms the Fed is confident that US economic recovery is sustainable and suggests the Regulator has a favorable outlook for the global economy.
RBA, in its turn, is likely to keep loose monetary policy due to weak inflation. Moreover, the Australian Dollar is under pressure from a continuous fall in commodity prices, in iron ore price in particular, as Australia remains the largest exporter of this raw material. Therefore, the AUD/USD pair tends to continue declining.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, a contracting triangle has formed with the lower border near the level of 0.7190 and the upper border at 0.7335 (EMA144). The price is likely to breakdown the lower border of the triangle and continue declining to 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980 and 0.6910 (year lows).
In case of a correctional growth, the price might reach the level of 0.7335 (EMA144 on the daily chart). An upward trend would resume only after the consolidation above the levels of 0.7465 (EMA200 on the daily chart) and 0.7510 (23.6% Fibonacci).
Support levels: 0.7215, 0.7170, 0.7100, 0.7030, 0.6980, 0.6910.
Resistance levels: 0.7300, 0.7350, 0.7400, 0.7500.

Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 0.7170, 0.7150, 0.7110, 0.7090, 0.7030, 0.6950, 0.6910 and stop-loss at 0.7250.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 0.7260 with targets at 0.7300, 0.7335, 0.7410, 0.7450, 0.7490 and stop-loss at 0.7190.

 

[LiteForex Official]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
On Thursday, the XAU/USD pair was falling, being under pressure from the Fed’s decision to increase the interest rate to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent. Having lost more than 2500 points, the price for gold was moving down towards its year lows, reached at the beginning of December. At present, the price has started correcting up in the area of 1054.35.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the lower and the meddle MAs of Bollinger Bands. MA50, MA100 and MA144 are above the current price and directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone. The DI lines of ADX are crossing each other and directed down.
The indicators confirm a downward trend in the XAU/USD pair.
Today, the price is likely to remain within the channel between the lower and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1049.85 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1049.98 (December low).
Resistance levels: 1067.73 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1084.65, 1099.14, 1120.41, 1133.94, 1165.35, 1191.93.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1060.50 and stop-loss at 1051.00. Validity – 1 day.

 

[LiteForex Official]

XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend
On Thursday, the XAU/USD pair was falling, being under pressure from the Fed’s decision to increase the interest rate to 0.5 percent from 0.25 percent. Having lost more than 2500 points, the price for gold was moving down towards its year lows, reached at the beginning of December. At present, the price has started correcting up in the area of 1054.35.

Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the lower and the meddle MAs of Bollinger Bands. MA50, MA100 and MA144 are above the current price and directed down. MACD histogram is in the negative zone. The DI lines of ADX are crossing each other and directed down.
The indicators confirm a downward trend in the XAU/USD pair.
Today, the price is likely to remain within the channel between the lower and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1049.85 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1049.98 (December low).
Resistance levels: 1067.73 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1084.65, 1099.14, 1120.41, 1133.94, 1165.35, 1191.93.

Trading tips
Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1060.50 and stop-loss at 1051.00. Validity – 1 day.

 

[LiteForex Official]

USD/JPY: BoJ loose monetary policy


Current trend
At the meeting on Friday, the Bank of Japan decided to keep its monetary policy mostly unchanged. BoJ Governor stated the Regulator aims at achieving an inflation rate of 2 per cent; however, much depends on the price of oil. Therefore, Japan’s Central Bank might start taking more decisive action soon.
Today, the US Dollar is gaining back its losses against the Japanese Yen. As the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan have different approaches to monetary policy, the USD/JPY pair tends to be strengthening in the medium term.


Support and resistance
Strong support levels are 121.35 (EMA on the daily chart) and 120.55 (EMA200 and the lower border of an ascending channel on the daily chart, 61.8% Fibonacci). After the consolidation below the level of 120.55, the price might decline further to 120.00 and 118.85.
If the price overcomes the resistance levels of 121.50 (50.0% Fibonacci), 122.10 (EMA200 and EMA144 on the 4-hour chart), 122.50 (38.2% Fibonacci), an upward trend might resume towards 123.70 (23.6% Fibonacci), 124.50 and 125.00 (the upper border of the ascending channel on the daily chart).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend short positions; on the 4-hour chart, the indicators are turning to long positions, suggesting a downward correction is, possibly, nearing the end.
Support levels: 121.35, 121.00, 120.55, 120.00, 118.85.
Resistance levels: 121.50, 122.10, 122.50, 123.00, 123.70.


Trading tips
Long positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 121.90, 122.10, 122.50, 123.00, 123.50, 123.70, 124.00, 124.50, 125.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 121.10 with targets at 120.55, 120.00, 118.85 and stop-loss at 121.60.