LiteForex Analytics

[MikhailLF]

liteForex USD/JPY: yen in under pressure or poor PMI data

Current trend

The pair began the week with the upward gap (to the area of 114.00) due to the strong victory of Liberal Democratic Japan party, leading by Shinzō Abe, in the parliamentary elections, which means that the ultra soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan will be developing for a long time. In addition, the market is alerted that Abe plans to increase the national consuming tax from 8% to 10% to increase the social spending. The decision can harm the retail sales, as the growth of tax inevitably affects the consumer spending negatively. When the tax was increased in 2014 in the previous time, the economy entered a recession, so the investors fear the same effect will happen this time.

During Monday the price was corrected of 113.30, but now is growing again. Yen is under pressure of poor PMI data. Instead of expected growth in October the indicator decreased from 52.9 to 52.5 points. The pair can grow, if the US Markit Manufacturing PMI and Markit Service PMI, which will be published today, are strong.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is testing the level of 113.67 (Murray [7/8]) and after the consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 114.06 (Murray [8/8]) and 114.45 (Murray [+1/8]). The indicators reflect the growth development, MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone, Stochastic is reversing upwards near the oversold area. However if US PMI data disappoint the investors, the correction to the level of 112.50 (key Murray [4/8], lower border of Bollinger Bands) can develop.

Resistance levels: 113.67, 114.06, 114.45, 114.85.
Support levels: 113.28, 112.90, 112.50.

Trading tips

It’s better to open long positions above the level of 113.67 with the targets at 114.06, 114.45 and stop loss at 113.35.

The consolidation of the price below the level of 113.28 or reversal around 114.06 will make short positions with the targets at 112.90 and 112.50 relevant. Stop losses are near the levels of 113.60 and 114.40 correspondingly.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex FDAX: Murrey analysis

Current trend

In the D1 chart the price consolidated around 12968.8 ([7/8]). Investors are waiting for the results of tomorrow's ECB meeting.
In case the level of 13125.0 (main resistance [8/8]) which is key for the “bulls” is broken through, the price may rise to 13281.3 ([+1/8]) and 13437.5 ([+2/8]). Otherwise the price may experience serious correction to the levels of 12812.5 ([6/8]) and 12500.0 ([4/8]). In the medium term the growth of the price is possible (which is confirmed by the reversal of Stochastic upwards), but it should be considered with caution. The level of 13125.0 represents serious resistance. Moreover, the price is around year maximums which may lead to correction.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 12968.8 ([7/8] stop, reversal), 12812.5 ([6/8] rotation, reversal), 12656.3 ([5/8] upper part of the channel), 12500.0 ([4/8] resistance, support).

Resistance levels: 13125.0 ([8/8] main resistance), 13281.3 ([+1/8] extreme resistance), 13437.5 ([+2/8] final resistance).

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened after the price consolidates below 12968.8 with targets at 12812.5, 12500.0 and stop-loss at 13080.0.
Long positions may be opened only after the price consolidates above 13125.0 with targets at 13281.3, 13437.5 and stop-loss at 13000.0.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex GBP/USD: the pair is being corrected

Current trend

Yesterday's data on the British GDP pushed the pair to 2-week maximums at 1.3275.

The growth of the indicators from 0.3% to 0.4% in Q3 2017 gave investors new hope for the first increase of the interest rate by the Bank of England since 2007. The growth of inflation (currently the rate is 3.0%) has long been a concern for the British central bank. Mark Carney said about the possibility of reduction of monetary stimulae already in June. However, the solution has been postponed since then, predominantly due to low salary growth rate in the country which could have influenced the volume of GDP. Now there are no obvious reasons to postpone the increase of the rate. However, the structure of British economic growth is uncertain. In Q3 it was reached mainly due to the sectors of services, trade and IT. Industrial sector showed less growth, and construction one decreased by 0.7%.

Support and resistance

Currently the price has been corrected to the middle line of Bollinger Bands to the level of 1.3200 and may further move to the waiting mode until the data on the US GDP in Q3 2017 is released tomorrow. However, if the price consolidated below 1.3180 (Fibo correction 23.6%) it may continue to decrease to 1.3110 (lower line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3030 (gathering of Fibo corrections). A key level for the “bulls” is tomorrow's maximums area at 1.3270 (Fibo correction 23.6%). In case it is broken out growth may resume to 1.3350 (Fibo correction 50.0%) and 1.3415 (Fibo correction 61.8%).

Support levels: 1.3180, 1.3110, 1.3030.
Resistance levels: 1.3120, 1.3340, 1.3415.

Trading tips

In the current situation long positions may be opened above the level of 1.3270 with targets at 1.3340, 1.3415 and stop-loss at 1.3230.

The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.3180 may lead to reduction to the area of 1.3110 and 1.3030. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.3220.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD grew and almost reached the middle line of Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci corrections around 1.3175.

This week the key events for the instrument are the meeting of Fed and of Bank of England. The US regulator is not expected to change the monetary policy. However, the Bank of England can increase the interest rate, but not for sure. On the one hand, the growth of GDP and inflation in the third quarter makes the regulator to cut the monetary stimulation. On the other hand, a number of BOE officials, such as Jon Cunliffe from, declare the total state of the UK economy insufficient for the interest rate increase.

The question is open, and any of the BOE decisions will cause significant price movement.

Support and resistance

Technically the price reached the level of 1.3175 (the middle line of Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci correction 23.6%). If the price is set above this level the further movement to the area of 1.3270 (correction 38.2%) is possible. In case of rebound at the level of 1.3175 the fall to the level of 1.3100 and further to October lows at the area of 1.3030 is possible.
Technical indicators readings are mixed. Stochastic has entered the overbought area, which can reflect the possibility of the reversal. On the other hand, MACD histogram is ready to enter the positive zone and form a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 1.3175, 1.3270, 1.3340.
Support levels: 1.3100, 1.3030, 1.2950.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.3140 with the targets at 1.3100, 1.3030 and stop loss at 1.3180.
The consolidation of the price above the level of 1.3175 will make long positions relevant with the targets at 1.3270, 1.3340 and stop loss at 1.3155.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex EUR/USD: the market is waiting for tomorrow’s PMI and Fed’s meeting

Current trend

Today the pair was slowly being corrected from the level of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]), euro is under pressure of poor inflation data. In October the preliminary Consumer Price Index decreased from 1.5% to 1.4%, and Core Index decreased from 1.3% to 1.1%. However, the correction is not strong due to the positive EU GDP data. In the third quarter the index grew from 2.3% to 2.5% YoY.

The market positively reacted to Donald Trump’s decision to make Jerome Powell the new head of Fed, according to Reuters and CNN. Unlike Janet Yellen, who was Professor of Economics, Powell was an investment banker, which makes the investors to hope that he will soften Dodd–Frank Consumer Protection Act, passed in 2010 and restricted the bank trading in the stock market significantly.

Support and resistance

Since Monday the price is trading within the range of 1.1657 (Murray [3/8]) and 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]). It can stay within the range until October USA manufacturing PMI publication and Fed’s meeting results (the interest rate is not expected to be risen. After the breakout of the level of 1.1657 the price can return within the main channel of 1.1790–1.1657. The key level for the “bears” is 1.1596 (Murray [2/8]), after the breakdown the correction can develop to the main support level at Murray 1.1475 ([0/8]).
Resistance levels: 1.1657, 1.1718, 1.1780.
Support levels: 1.1596, 1.1535, 1.1475.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1657 with the targets at 1.1718, 1.1779 and stop loss at 1.1625.
The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.1596 can lead to the fall to the levels of 1.1535 and 1.1475. Stop loss is near the level of 1.1630.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex AUD/USD: Australian dollar returned to reduction

Current trend

Today AUD is reducing against US dollar moving away from local maximums updated yesterday. The instrument is under pressure from not so optimistic macroeconomic statistics from Australian and expected strong labor market releases from the USA at 14:30 (GMT+2).

AiG PMI dropped from 52.1 to 51.4 points in September which was worse that expected by the analysts. The volumes of retail sales in September remained on zero level after reduction by 0.5% MoM in August. Experts hopes the indicator would grow by 0.4%.
US dollar receives support from the data on jobless claims published yesterday. They were interesting for the investors in view of the upcoming report on the labor market. The number of initial claims during the week that ended on October 27, dropped from 234K to 229K against the expected growth to 235K.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate reduction. The price range is narrowing. MACD indicator is growing preserving a weak buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic also preserves a stable upward direction but is approaching the level of 80.
Resistance levels: 0.7697, 0.7717, 0.7731, 0.7769.
Support levels: 0.7664, 0.7623, 0.7586.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after the breakout of the level of 0.7700 with targets at 0.7750, 0.7769 or 0.7800 and stop-loss at 0.7664. The period of implementation is 2-3 days.
Breaking down the level of 0.7664 may give the “bears” a way to 0.7600 or 0.7580 with stop-loss at 0.7700. The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes have been growing for the third trading session in a row. Within a day Brent oil gained 3.12% and rose to 64.05 (a 28-month maximum).
Oil prices are supported by several factors. First of all, it is the restoration of supply and demand balance in the oil market in view of fulfillment of production reduction obligations by OPEC states. This was announced by the former OPEC Secretary General Rene Ortiz. Oil market is also supported by the new stage of tension in the Middle East. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Yemen is developing, and on Saturday Yemen launched a missile at Riyadh.
Today market players are waiting for initial API data on weekly changes in US oil stocks (23:30 GMT+2). If the API report shows serious reduction of oil stocks, the rate of Brent may receive additional support and update its maximums. Official data by the US Department of Energy on oil stocks and the level of production will be released tomorrow (17:30 GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show the preservation of the upward trend. The volumes of MACD histogram are actively growing in the positive zone forming a buy signal. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards.
Support levels: 63.59, 62.40, 61.75.
Resistance levels: 64.30, 65.00, 66.00.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above the level of 64.30 with target at 65.00-66.00 and stop-loss at 63.80.
Sell positions should be opened below the level of 63.59 with target at 62.40 and stop-loss at 63.90.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex GBP/USD: Patrick Harker pushed the pair downwards

Current trend

In the beginning of the week the GBP/USD pair entered the channel 1.3183 (Murray [4/8])–1.3122 (Murray [3/8]).

On Tuesday the price was affected by controversial factors. Pound was under the pressure of poor UK BRC Retail Sales data. In October the index decreased by 1.0% due to clothing sales. British retailers fear that the high inflation level (3.0%) can affect the soon Christmas sales.

British currency was supported by the Trade low data publications. The low will be implemented after the end of Brexit, and according to it the Government plans to make a number of contracts with the key trading EU, US and Australian partners, and help the companies which have contracts with foreign governments.
Today the price went down after the Philadelphia Fed’ head Patrick Harker commentaries, who noted that Fed didn’t see any reasons not to increase the interest rate on December meeting, and to increase the rate gradually next year, if the inflation allowed it.

Support and resistance

The pair is testing the lower border of the range 1.3122 (Murray [3/8]) and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The consolidation of the price below will let the price fall to the levels of 1.3061 (Murray [2/8]) and 1.3000 (Murray [1/8]). Otherwise the price can return to the center resistance level of 1.3183 (Murray [4/8]), but it can significantly grow to the levels of 1.3245 (Murray [5/8]) and 1.3305 (Murray [6/8]) only after the breakout of this level. According to reversed downwards Stochastic, the fall is possible.

Resistance levels: 1.3183, 1.3244, 1.3305.
Support levels: 1.3122, 1.3061, 1.3000.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened after the price is set below the level of 1.3122 with the targets at 1.3061 and 1.3000 and stop loss at 1.3140.
The rebound of the price from the level of 1.3122 will make short term long positions actual with the target at 1.3183 and further increase of the long positions volumes to the levels of 1.3244 and 1.3305. Stop loss is 1.3090.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex USD/CAD: the pair’s dynamics is flat

Current trend

Yesterday USD was falling against Canadian currency, being under pressure after positive Canadian Building dynamics statistics publication. Housing Starts index grew by 222.8K in October against the corresponding month of 2016, while analysts expected the growth only to 210.0K. Building Permits grew by 3.8% MoM in September after the fall by 5.1% MoM in August, while experts suggested the fall by 0.2% MoM.
Today the pair is insignificantly growing, waiting for the new rivers to appear on the market. There is no key US and Canadian macroeconomic release expected today, so the volatility will stay low. September New Housing Price Index is due at 15:30 (GMT+2) in Canada. Initial Jobless Claims publication is due at the same time in the USA.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are reversing into flat. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the mixed dynamics appearance with low activity level. It’s better to use channel trading strategy.
MACD still keeps steady downward trend and sell signal (the histogram is below the signal line). It’s possible to keep current short positions, but not to open new ones.
Stochastic is trying to reverse upwards, reflecting that the pair is oversold in the short or very short term. It’s better to wait for the confirmation of this “bullish” signal.
Resistance levels: 1.2751, 1.2800, 1.2858, 1.2915.
Support levels: 1.2700, 1.2639, 1.2597, 1.2537.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal at the level of 1.2700 and breakout of the level of 1.2751 with the targets at 1.2858 or 1.2900. Stop loss is 1.2700. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

The steady breakdown 1.2700 can be the signal to open short positions with the target at 1.2600. Stop loss is 1.2751. Implementation period: 2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex USD/JPY: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the price was corrected from the level of 114.06 ([+1/8]) and by now has dropped to the middle line of Bollinger Bands (113.45) where it is fixed but yet unstable. The consolidation of the price below this level will open the way for further reduction to 112.50 ([8/8], lower line of Bollinger Bands), 111.70 (September and October minimums) and 110.93 ([7/8]). Otherwise the price may return to 114.06 ([+1/8]) and 114.64 ([7/8] in H4). Technical indicators show downward movement: Stochastic is directed downwards, and MACD histogram is reducing in the positive zone. Generally, the continuation of the fall seems more likely due to the values of indicators and the distance between the chart and timeline.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 113.45 (medium line of Bollinger Bands), 112.50 ([8/8]), 111.70 (autumn minimums), 110.93 ([7/8]).
Resistance levels: 114.06 ([+1/8]), 114.64 ([7/8] in H4), 115.62 ([+2/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions seem more relevant but they should be opened only if the price consolidates below 113.45 with targets at 112.50, 111.70 and stop-loss at 113.70.
Long positions should be opened above 114.06 with targets at 114.64, 115.62 and stop-loss at 113.70.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex XAU/USD: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the price failed to consolidate above the level of 1281.25 ([2/8]) and has entered the range of 1281.25 ([2/8])-1265.63 ([1/8]) in which it has been trading for over a week. According to Stochastic that has reversed downwards, in the near future the price may drop to 1265.63 ([1/8]) once again and further go down to 1250.00 ([0/8]). Moreover, the price is under pressure from the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The key level for the “bulls” seems to be 1281.25. In case the price consolidates above it, growth may continue to the border of the channel at 1296.88 ([3/8]) and further to the central level at 1312.50 ([4/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 1265.63 ([1/8]), 1250.00 ([0/8]), 1234.38 ([-1/8]).
Resistance levels: 1281.25 ([2/8]), 1296.88 ([3/8]), 1312.50 ([4/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation sell positions seem more relevant. They should be opened at the current price with targets at 1265.63, 1250.00 and stop-loss at 1285.00.
Long positions should be opened if the price consolidates above 1281.25 with targets at 1296.88, 1312.50 and stop-loss at 1280.00.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex NZD/USD: Murray analysis

Current trend

On the daily chart the price rebounded from the level of 0.6958 ([2/8]) and is tending to the level of 0.6835 ([0/8]), which it has tested in the end of October already. The level was unsuccessfully tested this May, too, so it is quite strong. After the breakdown of it the price can fall to the levels of 0.6775 ([–1/8]) and 0.6714 ([–2/8]), which is confirmed by Stochastic, which is pointed downwards. However, the reversal and breakout of the middle line of Bollinger Bands and the level of 0.6958 ([2/8]) is not excluded, as the price is reaching the lower border of Bollinger Bands. In this case the price can grow to the levels of 0.7020 ([3/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]) and 0.7141 ([5/8]).

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.6835 ([0/8]), 0.6775 ([–1/8]), 0.6714 ([–2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.6958 ([2/8]), 0.7020 ([3/8]), 0.7080 ([4/8]), 0.7141 ([5/8]).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the reversal of the price around 0.6835 or above the level of 0.6958 with the targets at 0.7020 and 0.7080 and stop loss at 0.6800 and 0.6900.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.6775 with the targets at 0.6714, 0.6670 and stop loss at 0.6810.

 

[MikhailLF]

liteForex AUD/USD: under the pressure of Chinese data

Current trend

This week the pair is going down and is now trading around 0.7600. AUD is under the pressure of poor Chinese data: October Retail Sales indicator fell from 10.3% to 10.0% and Industrial production one decreased from 6.6% to 6.2%. Chinese problems can significantly affect Australian economy negatively in long term. China consumes more than third of Australian export, a large part of it is iron ore. More than a half of it and iron product have been using in Chinese building market, which is slowing now. This fact has led to cut of surplus production capacities, which can affect Australian producers negatively.
Today US October Inflation data and Retail Sales publication can cause great volatility of the price. Consumer Price Index can fall from 2.2% to 2.0%, and after September growth by 1.6% Retail Sales data can be 0.0%. In this case the pair can enter the upward correction.

Support and resistance

The key “bearish” level is at 0.7568 (Murray [0/8]). The breakout will let the price fall to the area of 0.7507 (Murray [–2/8]). Stochastic’s attempt to reverse near the oversold area reflects the possibility of the upward correction. However, long positions with the targets at 0.7690 (Murray [4/8]), 0.7720 (Murray [5/8]) will become relevant only after the price is set above the level of 0.7630 (Murray [2/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands).

Resistance levels: 0.7630, 0.7690, 0.7720.
Support levels: 0.7568, 0.7507.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 0.7568 with the target at 0.7507 and stop loss at 0.7600.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.7630 with the targets at 0.7690, 0.7720 and stop loss at 0.7600.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD: inflation is pushing the pair downwards

Current trend

On Wednesday the pair started correction from the level of 1.1840 (Murrey [1/8] for D1). USD was supported by positive data on inflation in the USA. Basic CPI that the Fed uses to make decisions on changes in the interest rate, grew by 1.8% (after remaining on the level of 1.7% for five months). This gave the investors confidence that the regulator would increase the interest rate during its December meeting.
Today’s inflation statistics from Eurozone was negative for euro. CPI remained on the level of 1.4% and its basic variant dropped from 1.1% to 0.9%. Moreover, the European currency is under pressure from the data that German Chancellor Angela Merkel has problems forming the new German government.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is moving towards the level of 1.1718 (Murrey [0/8] for D1) and may well reach it if today’s data on US industrial output prove to be strong (the indicator is expected to grow from 0.3% to 0.5%). Breaking down the level of 1.1718 will open the way for further decrease to 1.1657 (Murrey level [3/8] for Н4) and 1.1596 ([-1/8] for D1). One may speak about considerable growth after the price breaks out the level of 1.1840. In this case the targets of the “bulls” will be 1.1900 (Murrey level [7/8] for H4) and 1.1962 ([2/8] for D1). Technical indicators show opposite signals. Stochastic is leaving the overbought area forming a sell signal. MACD histogram is about to move to the positive zone and form a buy signal.

Support levels: 1.1718, 1.1657, 1.1596.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened at the current price with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1790.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop-loss 1.1800.

 

[MikhailLF]

NZD/USD: downward impulse maintains

Current trend

New Zealand Currency is significantly falling against the US dollar after the interest rate decision and RBNZ Statement upon the maintenance of the mild monetary policy in the long term.
In the middle of the last week in RBNZ statement was claimed that the key interest rate will stay on the same level, so the monetary policy perspectives are unclear. It was also noted, that low rate of the national currency is necessary to increase the inflation rate.
Today the pair rapidly went down, breaking few of the key support levels. Poor Business NZ PMI, Producer Price Index – Input and Output data affected the pair negatively. The pair has lost 100 points in a few hours, and downward momentum maintains.
As there is lack of US key releases in the economical calendar, the pair will move according to the trading moods.

Support and resistance

The pair will fall to the key levels of 0.6770, 0.6680, 0.6575. Insignificant upward correction at the level of 0.6770 with the target at 0.6820 is possible, but after it the pair will decrease further. Technical indicators confirms the forecast, MACD reflects the growth of short positions volumes, Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.

Resistance levels: 0.6820, 0.6875, 0.6920, 0.6975, 0.7010, 0.7050.
Support levels: 0.6770, 0.6730, 0.6680, 0.6575, 0.6500.

Trading tips

It’s better to increase the volume of short positions at the current level with the targets at 0.6770, 0.6680, 0.6575 and stop loss at 0.6860

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD: instability in Germany puts pressure on euro

Current trend

The pair started the week with a fall to 1.1723. The market acted on the data on the termination of negotiations on the formation of a new German government. Free Democratic Party headed by Christian Lindener refused to become a part of the coalition government with CDU/CSU. Now Chancellor Angela Merkel may either create a government of parliamentary minority and reach separate agreements with the opposition on key bills, or hold an extraordinary parliamentary election. Anyway, instability in the German government will put pressure on EUR in the medium term.

After the opening of the European session the pair regained positions and is now trading around 1.1790. During the day the market is waiting for the speech by Mario Draghi in the European Parliament. However, the head of ECB is unlikely to say something new about the monetary policy. He stated several times that despite the success of the European economy stimulation had to be continued.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is located near 1.1780 (Murrey level [5/8]). Its breakdown may return the quotes to 1.1730 (lower line of Bollinger Bands)-1.1718 (Murrey [4/8]). One may speak about considerable growth in case the price consolidates above 1.1840 (Murrey [6/8]). In this case growth may continue to 1.1900 (Murrey [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murrey [8/8]). Technical indicators don’t give a clear signal. Bollinger Bands are switching to the horizontal movement. MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone. Stochastic is directed upwards.

Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.
Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.

Trading tips

Short positions should be opened below 1.1780 with targets at 1.1718, 1.1657 and stop-loss at 1.1820.
Long positions may be opened above 1.1840 with targets at 1.1900 and 1.1962 and stop-loss at 1.1800.

 

[MikhailLF]

NZD/USD: Murrey analysis

Current trend

On the D1 chart the pair continues to trade within the downward channel having decreased below the main support level of 0.6835 (Murrey [0/8]). The instrument failed to break through this level several times, and it still remains important. In case it is broken out, the price may continue to grow to 0.6897 ([1/8]) and 0.6958 ([2/8]). Otherwise the price may go down to 0.6713 ([-2/8]).

Further fall of the quotes may be caused by today’s release of the dairy prices index by Global Dairy Trade. They have been falling a stable decreasing pattern since the beginning of October, and its continuation may put considerable pressure on the currency of New Zealand.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators don’t exclude reversal and upward correction. Stochastic is near the oversold area and moves horizontally. MACD histogram is in the negative zone and shows signs of divergence with the price chart which indicates reversal.

Support levels: 0.6775 ([-1/8]), 0.6713 ([-2/8]).
Resistance levels: 0.6835 ([0/8]), 0.6897 ([1/8]), 0.6958 ([2/8]).

Trading tips

In the current situation buy positions should be opened when the level of 0.6835 is broken through with targets at 0.6897, 0.6958 and stop-loss at 0.6800.
Short positions may be opened below 0.6775 with targets at 0.6713, 0.6670 and stop-loss at 0.6810.

 

[MikhailLF]

AUD/USD: Philip Lowe stopped the fall of the pair

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair made an attempt of upward correction and rose to 0.7590. Investors acted upon the statement of the head of RBA Philip Lowe who said that at that time there was no need to increase the interest rates, but it could appear soon. The state of the economy indicates that the regulator is likely to increase the interest rate with its next decision. However, the optimism of the market did not last long, as Lowe gave no hints regarding the time of the increase. Currently the price is aiming at November minimums at 0.7535.
The minutes of the Fed’s November meeting will be released in the evening. Investors will look for confirmations of their expectations regarding one more increase of the interest rate in the USA in December.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is consolidating around 0.7568 (Murrey level [2/8]) and may remain there until the end of the week. The consolidation of the price below 0.7568 will open the way for reduction to 0.7446 (Murrey level [1/8], lower border of the upward channel). Still, reversal and beginning of growth to 0.7690 (Murrey [3/8]) and 0.7812 (Murrey [4/8]) seem more likely. This is confirmed by the fact that Stochastic starts to reverse in the oversold areas and Bollinger Bands have turned to horizontal movement.
Support levels: 0.7568, 0.7446, 0.7324.
Resistance levels: 0.7690, 0.7812.

Trading tips

Long positions should be opened from 0.7600 with targets at 0.7690, 0.7812 and stop-loss at 0.7560.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7520 with targets at 0.7446, 0.7324 and stop-loss at 0.7560.

 

[MikhailLF]

EUR/USD: American currency is under pressure

Current trend

The Thanksgiving Day is celebrated today in the USA, but dollar is under the pressure after FOMC Minutes publication. Some of FOMC members expressed their doubts in the rapid increase of the interest rate in unstable inflation growth conditions. Earlier the outgoing Fed’s head Janet Yellen stated the same doubts. On the other hand, EUR is supported by the news than the head of Social-Democratic Party Martin Schulz is ready to negotiate with Chancellor Angela Merkel upon her restricted support in case of minority party creation by her.
In addition, the “bulls” were inspired by strong statistics from EU. Markit Services PMI reached the maximum level of 56.2 points since this May, as Markit Manufacturing PMI reached the record 60.0 points.

Support and resistance

Technically the price is testing the level of 1.1840 (Murray [6/8]) and after consolidation above it can grow to the levels of 1.1900 (Murray [7/8]) and 1.1962 (Murray [8/8]). Stochastic is in the overbought area, so the correction to the level of 1.1780 (Murray [5/8], the middle line of Bollinger Bands) is possible. The growth seems more likely.

Resistance levels: 1.1840, 1.1900, 1.1962.
Support levels: 1.1780, 1.1718, 1.1657.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1840 with the targets at 1.1900, 1.1962 and stop loss at 1.1800.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.1820 with the targets at 1.1780 and 1.1718 and stop loss at 1.1850.

 

[MikhailLF]

USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

During last few trading weeks USD is rapidly falling against JPY due to the decrease of the investment attractiveness of the US currency after the slowing of the USA Fed’s monetary policy tightening. In addition, the change of the US regulator’s head affected USD negatively.
Last week favorable Q3 economy growth data were released, and yen grew significantly. There were no key macroeconomic data this week, but the momentum strengthened and the demand on Japanese currency increased, as a result the pair fell by more than 150 points. Yesterday the instrument reached the key support level of 111.00 and reversed into consolidation.
Due to US holidays in the end of the week the significant movement of the pair is not expected.

Support and resistance

In the short term the correction within the downward channel is expected, after the end of which the pair can fall to the levels of 110.50, 109.00.
At the moment the demand on yen is high, which draws the pair downwards, and if US Fed will postpone the interest rate rise to 2018, the instrument can reach the levels of 108.15, 107.50.
On the 4-hour chart technical indicators confirms the forecast, MACD short positions volumes are growing, Bollinger Bands are pointed downwards.

Resistance levels: 111.50, 111.75, 112.40, 112.60, 112.85, 113.45, 113.70, 114.00.
Support levels: 111.00, 110.50, 110.20, 109.55, 109.00, 108.15, 107.50.

Trading tips

It’s relevant to increase the volumes of short positions at the current level with the targets at 110.50, 109.00 and stop loss at 112.10.