LiteForex Analytics

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices declined on Tuesday, updating local lows of November 15.

Investors are still focused on the US-Chinese trade conflict. In anticipation of the G20 summit in Buenos Aires starting on Friday, US President Donald Trump gave an interview to The Wall Street Journal; he said he is ready to impose increased tariffs on remaining Chinese imports totaling USD 267 billion if negotiations with Xi Jinping fail. The rate may be 10% or 25% but is yet to be confirmed. These comments may be an element of pressure to persuade the PRC to sign a treaty with the US. Trump also spoke about the Brexit deal, the text of which was approved by EU representatives on Sunday. According to Trump, the deal is excellent for the EU; however, accepting it, the UK will not be able to conduct bilateral trade with the US.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate flat dynamics. The price range consolidated, but remains rather spacious for the current level of activity in the market. MACD is going down keeping a sell signal (located under the signal line). Besides, the indicator is trying to consolidate below the zero level. Stochastic keeps downward direction but is approaching minimum levels, which reflects the oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Existing short positions should be kept until the situation clears up.

Resistance levels: 1216.62, 1220.12, 1226.11, 1229.84.
Support levels: 1211.80, 1208.14, 1200.00, 1196.10.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1216.62. Take profit — 1226.11 or 1229.84. Stop loss — 1212.00.
The rebound from 1216.62 with the subsequent breakdown of 1211.80 can become a signal to return to sales with target at 1205.00 or 1200.00. Stop loss — 1216.62.

Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. NZD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the pair strengthened by 65 points after the speech of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

In general, the speech was neutral. USD was under pressure due to the mentioned necessity of balancing the current monetary policy in order to avoid "overheating" of the economy. Nevertheless, the Fed chief continues to insist on a gradual increase in the key rate, since US macroeconomic indicators of the labor market and inflation corresponded with a policy of tightening. Meanwhile, the New Zealand regulator has published negative data on the business optimism index. According to the report, business investment in the country is at a low level, which is a negative signal when assessing the state of the economy as a whole.

Today at 15:30 (GMT+2), the US labor market and inflation data will be published. The release of the Fed’s Meeting Minutes is due at 21:00 (GMT+2). Both news releases can create strong market volatility. Most investors expect USD to grow.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument was corrected to the upper border of Bollinger bands, which is the key resistance level. The indicator is directed sideways, and the price range has expanded significantly, which is the basis for further growth. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, its volumes continue to grow, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic reversed downwards at the border of the overbought area.

Resistance levels: 0.6855, 0.6907, 0.6956, 0.7022.
Support levels: 0.6822, 0.6790, 0.6737, 0.6701, 0.6663, 0.6629.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.6765 and stop loss 0.6900.
Long positions can be opened above the level of 0.6905 with the target at 0.6960 and stop loss 0.6885.
Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

EUR strengthened against USD on Thursday amid a refutation regarding the introduction of US tariffs on cars from the EU before Christmas made by the European Commission.

The single currency was also supported by positive labor market statistics from Germany. Macroeconomic data from the US was mixed and did not support the USD. Private spending increased to 0.6% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. Personal income also showed a positive trend and amounted to 0.5% in October from 0.2% a month earlier. The FOMC protocol published last night confirmed the Fed’s intention to raise the key rate in December. At the same time, the regulator believes that in the future it is necessary to carefully approach the issue of tightening monetary policy after the December round of rate hikes. Investors reacted to these statements by selling the US currency.

Today, the publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone (12:00 GMT+3) may influence the pair; high volatility is expected in the market.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart, there is an upward correction, the instrument is traded near the upper border of Bollinger Bands, the price range is expanded, which indicates a possible continuation of the upward movement. MACD histogram is in the positive area, gradually increasing volumes, the signal line crosses the zero mark and the body of the histogram from the bottom up, which is a signal to open long positions.

Support levels: 1.1362, 1.1348, 1.1330, 1.1300, 1.1265.
Resistance levels: 1.1400, 1.1415, 1.1433, 1.1460, 1.1491.

Trading tips

Long position may be opened from 1.1400 with the target at 1.1460 and stop loss at 1.1362.
Short positions may be opened from 1.1330 with the target at 1.1265 and stop loss at 1.1362.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. WTI Crude Oil: price restores

Current trend

Today, during the Asian session, oil prices are steadily growing, opened the trading of the new week with a significant upward gap. Investors are reacting to the results of the G20 summit held at the weekend, at which a key agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia to lower production volumes was reached. December 6, a meeting of OPEC+ in Vienna will be held, to which market participants will come up with well-formed expectations for next year.

Also noteworthy is the Friday report from Baker Hughes, which reflected the growth in the number of active oil platforms from 885 to 887 units.

Today, investors are waiting for the publication of a block of macroeconomic statistics on US business activity. It is predicted that in November, ISM Manufacturing PMI may increase from 57.7 to 57.8 points, and ISM Manufacturing Prices over the same period may drop from 71.6 to 68.3 points.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, Bollinger bands are reversing horizontally. The price range narrows, reflecting a sharp change in direction of trading in the short term. MACD indicator is growing, keeping a strong buy signal (the histogram is above the signal line). Stochastic is growing almost vertically, rapidly approaching its highs, which indicates that the instrument may become overbought soon.

The development of the "bullish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term is possible.

Resistance levels: 54.72, 55.64, 57.00, 58.64.
Support levels: 52.38, 51.32, 50.00, 49.00, 48.09.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 54.72 with the targets at 58.64 or 60.00. Stop loss is 53.40.
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the levels of 52.38 or 51.32 with the target at 48.09. Stop loss is 52.40 or 53.50.

Implementation period: 2–3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Brent quotes are moderately growing and reached the area of 62.50 in anticipation of the outcome of the OPEC representatives meeting. On Wednesday in Vienna, a meeting of the OPEC+ Monitoring Committee will be held to assess the implementation of the limitation of the oil production agreement. On Thursday, a meeting of OPEC ministers will be held, at which, as predicted, a new agreement on reducing the level of production of "black gold" will be announced. Also, the price is supported by news about the agreement reached between the Russian Federation and Saudi Arabia during the G20 summit to extend the agreement on oil production reducing.

Today, investors will pay attention to the preliminary data from the API about the weekly change in US oil reserves at 23:30 (GMT+2). If the rate rises, the instrument will be affected negatively in the short term. Official data from the US Department of Energy will be published tomorrow.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators reflex the development of growth potential. Bollinger bands and Stochastic lines are directed upwards. MACD volumes are actively growing in the positive zone, forming a buy signal.

Resistance levels: 62.50, 64.06, 65.62.
Support levels: 60.93, 59.37, 57.18.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 62.50 with the targets near 64.06 and stop loss 62.00.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 60.93 with the targets around 59.37 and stop loss 61.40

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: USD strengthens

Current trend

USD showed strong growth against CAD on December 4, recovering from the "bearish" dynamics of the beginning of the week.

The euphoria of the market after a meeting of the US President Donald Trump and PRC Chairman Xi Jinping begins to calm down. The trade conflict was not resolved, its escalation was only postponed for three months. Trump’s economic adviser Larry Kudlow is counting on a quick breakthrough, primarily on the issue of protecting American intellectual property in the PRC; however, the market does not believe these comments.

Published yesterday, data on the ISM Manufacturing PMI was above market expectations. In November, it rose from 57.7 to 59.3 points, which provided short-term support to USD.

Today, investors are focused on the decision of the Bank of Canada on the interest rate and the accompanying press conference. The rate is expected to remain unchanged at the level of 1.75%.

Support and resistance

The Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the ambiguous nature of trading last days. MACD indicator is growing trying to form a new buy signal (the histogram has to consolidate above the signal line). Stochastic is gradually reversing up, located in the middle of its area. The showings of the indicators do not contradict the further development of the "bullish" trend in the short and/or ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1.3300, 1.3317, 1.3358.
Support levels: 1.3264, 1.3241, 1.3200, 1.3158.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened after breaking out 1.3300 with take profit at 1.3358 and stop loss at 1.3270. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
After the rebound from 1.3300 and a breakdown of 1.3264, corrective sales may start with the target at 1.3200 or 1.3158. Stop loss – 1.3300. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: the upward momentum maintains

Current trend

Since the beginning of this week, the USD/CAD pair has grown by more than 250 points due to a decrease in demand for CAD and a moderate growth of USD. The price easily broke the local maximum of the end of June at 1.3390, which was a strong resistance level. CAD is under pressure of a rapid decline in oil prices and a drop in the activity of the energy sector. The US dollar, in turn, gradually strengthens its position.

Today and tomorrow, in the United States a number of key releases that may affect the pair, will be released: labor market data, including Nonfarm Payrolls, statistics on Production Orders, as well as key indices.

Support and resistance

In the short term, the upward momentum will raise the instrument to key resistance levels. If the US releases on the labor market are positive, the price may grow significantly. Now, the pair has almost reached the next serious resistance at the level of 1.3450. From this level, the pair may drop and move under the influence of trading sentiment and macroeconomic statistics. The long-term and medium-term trends remain upward, which means it is worth opening long positions, perhaps just after the downward correction.

Technical indicators confirm the growth forecast, the volumes of long MACD positions are growing, Bollinger bands are directed upwards.

The Resistance levels are 1.3450, 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3595, 1.3610, 1.3650.
Support levels: 1.3390, 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290, 1.3225, 1.3170.

Trading tips

It is relevant to open pending long positions from the levels of 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290 with the target at 1.3530 and stop loss 1.3240.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Last week, Brent crude oil was traded in both directions. The long-term pressure on the market persists, but the instrument has kept from falling below the important psychological level of 60.00.

On Friday, quotes strengthened amid OPEC+ agreements to reduce total production by 1.2 million barrels per day. In addition, crude oil stocks in the US domestic market have declined for the first time in 11 weeks. However, on Friday at 21:00 (GMT+2), Baker Hughes report on active oil platforms had a significant but short-term pressure on the instrument, reflecting growth in drilling activity in the United States. Most experts say that the volume of OPEC reduction is insufficient to return the market to a deficit.

Tomorrow (at 23:30 GMT+2), API will publish data on the weekly change in reserves of commercial oil in the US.

Support and resistance

On H4 chart, the instrument is trying to consolidate below the middle line of Bollinger Bands, which is the key support level. The indicator is directed horizontally, and the price range expands, indicating a further fall in the instrument. MACD histogram is correcting in the neutral zone, the signal for entering the market is not formed. Stochastic does not give a clear signal to open positions.

Support levels: 60.90, 58.95, 57.50.
Resistance levels: 62.88, 65.04, 66.85, 68.39, 70.50.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened below the level of 60.50 with the target at 58.80 and stop loss at 61.35.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 61.35 with the target at 62.90 and stop loss at 60.80.
Implementation period: 1-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. YM: general review

Current trend

The Dow Jones index is slightly recovering and trading above support level of 24218.8 (Murrey [2/8]). Demand in the markets was caused by the news that the Vice-Premier of China and a representative of the US Treasury discussed the next stage of negotiations.

The US dollar is strengthening against the backdrop of political risks that are associated with Brexit. On the other hand, economists at Goldman Sachs, a major investment bank, predict that the Fed may delay the further tightening of monetary policy next year, which in turn will support the stock market and reduce USD exchange rate. However, this is only a preliminary assessment and the regulator will make its decisions based on economic data.

The second important event for the market is the political crisis in the United States. It became known that the former lawyer of Donald Trump may be sentenced to prison because of tax evasion and various frauds during the election campaign. As a result, Democrats can begin hearings about the impeachment of the current US president.

Today, data on producer price index in the United States will be published.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at the level of 80 points and indicates the possible correction.
Resistance levels: 24609.4, 24722.0.
Support levels: 24218.8, 23982.0.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the resistance level of 24609.4 with take-profit at 24218.8 and stop loss at 24722.0.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the D1 chart, the instrument is trading above the upper line of Bollinger Bands; the price range is widened, which indicates a possible continuation of the uptrend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone and has minimum volume, the signal line is about to cross the zero line from below, which will be a signal to open long positions. Stochastic is in the neutral area, and the lines of the oscillator are directed upwards.

XAG/USD, H4

On H4 chart the instrument is growing along the upper border of Bollinger Bands, and the price range is widened. MACD histogram is in the positive area keeping a signal for opening buy orders. Stochastic is on the border of the neutral zone with the overbought zone; the oscillator lines are directed horizontally.

Key levels

Resistance levels: 14.76, 14.90, 15.09, 15.23.
Support levels: 14.65, 14.59, 14.44, 14.37, 14.31, 14.22, 14.16, 14.08, 14.03, 13.93, 13.88.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 14.90, 15.09 and stop loss at 14.65.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 14.59 with targets at 14.44, 14.37, 14.31. Stop loss – 14.65.
Implementation time: 1-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: gold prices are going down

Current trend

Gold prices declined slightly on Thursday, updating the record lows of December 7.

Macroeconomic statistics from the US published on Thursday failed to provide significant support to USD, but investors were focused on the further development of US-China trade relations. Anyway, the published figure for the number of initial jobless claims for the week on December 7 dropped sharply from 233K to 206K, which was better than expected 226K.

Today, traders are focused on the US retail sales data. Analysts expect a sharp slowdown in November from +0.8% MoM to +0.1% MoM, which could have a negative impact on USD. There will also be published the November statistics on industrial production and preliminary December data on business activity.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart show moderate growth. The price range is narrowing, reflecting the emergence of ambiguous trading dynamics. MACD is declining keeping a weak sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic is declining more actively, but is rapidly approaching its minimum levels, which indicates the risks associated with the oversold instrument.

Technical indicators do not contradict further development of the "bearish" trend in the short term.

Resistance levels: 1247.00, 1250.66, 1255.00.
Support levels: 1240.00, 1237.16, 1233.08, 1229.84.

Trading tips

To open long positions, one can rely on the breakout of 1247.00. Take profit — 1255.00. Stop loss — 1244.00. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
A breakdown of 1240.00 or 1237.16 may be a signal to further sales with target at 1229.84 or 1226.11. Stop loss — 1243.00 or 1245.00. Implementation period: 2-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

Today, the pair is correcting upwards, aiming at the level of 1.1352 (Murrey [2/8], the midline of Bollinger Bands).

The euro is strengthening, despite the weak data on inflation in the Eurozone. In November, the basic consumer price index remained at 1.0%, and the general CPI dropped from 2.0% to 1.9%, having fallen below the target level for the first time since May. Investors are more concerned about the upcoming Fed meeting. The rate is expected to be raised once again, this time from 2.25% to 2.50%; but in the future, the rate of monetary tightening may be slowed down. During the month, hints of this were made by several members of the regulator, including its chairman Jerome Powell. Currently, the market expects another three rate hikes next year, and any data on the reduction of their number could put pressure on USD.

Support and resistance

The level of 1.1352 (in the midline of Bollinger Bands) is seen as the key one for the "bulls". Its breakout will give the prospect of further growth to 1.1413 (Murrey [3/8], the upper line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.1474 (Murrey [4/8]). Otherwise, the decline will resume to the levels of 1.1291 (Murrey [1/8]) and 1.1230 (Murrey [0/8]).

Technical indicators do not provide a clear signal: MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone and Stochastic is directed horizontally.

Support levels: 1.1291, 1.1230, 1.1200.
Resistance levels: 1.1352, 1.1413, 1.1474.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened after the reversal near 1.1352 with targets at 1.1291, 1.1230 and stop loss at 1.1380.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 1.1370 with targets at 1.1413, 1.1474 and stop loss at 1.1330.
Implementation period: 4-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CAD: the pair is growing

Current trend

For two and a half months, the USD/CAD pair has been trading within an upward channel due to the ambiguous Canadian statistics and the growing demand for the American currency. In early December, the price fell to the key support level of 1.3170, failed to overcome it and sharply rose to a local maximum of 1.3450. It was followed by a correction, which was replaced by the current upward impulse with testing of new local highs.

This week, strong data on the US construction sector were published, but traders are waiting for new statistics that can affect the instrument. Today, special attention should be paid to inflation level data in Canada and the Fed's decision on monetary policy. In the second half of the week, GDP and Retail Sales will be released in Canada, and employment market data will be published in the USA.

Support and resistance

In the medium term, the trend will continue, as the growth rate of the economy and key US macroeconomic indicators are increasing. The price can rise to levels of 1.3595 and 1.3785, which were tested at the end of 2016 and the middle of 2017.

Technically, the pair stays within the upward channel, which is supported by the technical indicators’ readings: MACD volumes of long positions are growing, Bollinger bands are directed upwards.

Resistance levels: 1.3495, 1.3530, 1.3570, 1.3595, 1.3650, 1.3785.
Support levels: 1.3450, 1.3390, 1.3375, 1.3355, 1.3290, 1.3225, 1.3170.

Trading tips

It is relevant to increase the volumes of long positions from the current level and open pending long positions from the levels of 1.3450, 1.3390 with the targets at 1.3595, 1.3785 and stop loss 1.3310.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Brent Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil quotes show negative dynamics having reached the level of 56.03, the minimum value for the last 14 months.

Published yesterday, official data from the US Department of Energy, indicating a reduction in oil reserves by 0.497M barrels for the week, could not support the Brent rate. Experts predicted a more significant decrease in the amount of 2.437M barrels for the week. The pressure on prices is exerted by concerns regarding oversupply in the oil market. The new OPEC agreement to reduce oil production will come into force only next month and currently the level of oil production in such countries as the USA, Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation is at a high level. Also, additional pressure on prices is exerted by the general strengthening of USD in connection with the decision of the US Fed to raise the interest rate and to continue tightening monetary policy in 2019.

Support and resistance

Technical indicators show that downward movement potential is preserved. Bollinger Bands and Stochastic are directed downwards. MACD histogram is stable in the negative zone. One may speak about downward movement continuation after the price consolidates below the support level of 56.25. In this case, the decline may continue to the level of 55.46. If the price fails to consolidate below the level of 56.25, then an upward correction is likely to develop with the main target at 57.81, corresponding to the center line of Bollinger Bands.

Resistance levels: 57.03, 57.81, 58.59.
Support levels: 56.25, 55.46, 54.68.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level with target at 54.68 and stop loss at 56.00.
Long positions may be opened above the level of 57.03 with target at 57.80–58.00 and stop loss at 56.80.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. USD/CHF: general analysis

Current trend

USD strengthened slightly against CHF: the pair is now trading near the resistance level of 6/8 Murrey or 0.9948. If the currency can consolidate higher, then the next target will be the level of 7/8 Murrey or 0.9979.

USD may be affected negatively by a significant drop in the stock market. If there is no reversal in the near future, the current decline will be greatest since 2008: only last week, indices lost more than 6%. The leaders of the largest investment banks said that they had enough funds on their balance sheets for lending business and other market operations. On this issue, the Presidential Group on Financial Markets and the Fed will hold a working meeting under the leadership of Stephen Mnuchin.

The second negative point for USD is the shutdown of a part of US government since Donald Trump could not agree with the Senate about government spending. The US president planned to add to the expenditure side a project to build a wall on the Mexico border for a total of $5 billion but the Senate did not agree to sign the bill.

Today, there is no strong movement expected in the market, since many institutions do not conduct financial operations on Christmas Eve.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at 68 points and does not give signals for opening positions.
Resistance levels: 0.9948, 0.9979.
Support levels: 0.9918, 0.9887.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 0.9979 with the target at 0.9887 and stop loss 1.0003.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. SPX: general review

Current trend

S&P 500 has recovered slightly after reports from US President Donald Trump about excellent opportunities for buying shares of American companies, which have recently lost in price.

The president also noted that the US economy continues to grow, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell does an excellent job, although information about Trump’s intention to dismiss an official appeared before. A number of experts believe that the rapid market decline is caused by computer algorithms, since about 85% of operations are automated. On the other hand, the negative dynamics was triggered by fundamental factors, such as the tightening of monetary policy, the geopolitical situation, in particular the trade war between the US and China, as well as weak data on corporate profits of American companies. Also a negative factor for the market is the government shutdown due to the fact that the President was unable to agree with the Congress on government spending. Today, the US Senate will hold another meeting on this issue, but it is likely that it will not be resolved by the end of the year.

Support and resistance

Stochastic is at the level of 86 points indicating the possible correction.
Resistance levels: 2500.0, 2524.0.
Support levels: 2421.9, 2393.8.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the resistance level of 2500.0 with take profit at 2393.8 and stop loss at 2524.0.

 

[Think Pad]

XAU/USD: the price of gold is rising

Current trend

At the end of the summer, the price of gold changed the trend and began to grow, forming a wide upward channel. At the end of November, after a reversal at the bottom border of the range at the level of 1215.00, the instrument formed a long ascending wave. During December, the course has broken a number of key levels: 1260.10, 1265.00, 1274.30. Now the price has reached the upper border of the channel 1280.00 and consolidated below.

An additional catalyst for growth was poor fundamental American statistic. Early next year, special attention should be paid to data on the US labor market.

Support and resistance

The demand for metals has increased significantly due to the decline in the US currency. Technically, the upward trend maintains but it will not be easy for the instrument to overcome the upper border of the range. The most likely scenario is the formation of a downward wave to the lower border of the channel at 1243.00, after which the price will go up again to new local highs. In the medium term, gold may reach the highs of the end of 2017 and the middle of 2018 at 1300.00.

Technical indicators confirm the growth forecast: Bollinger bands are directed upwards, the signal line and the volume of long positions are growing.

Resistance levels: 1280.00, 1285.00, 1295.00, 1300.00, 1306.50.

Support levels: 1274.30, 1265.00, 1260.10, 1243.00, 1237.00, 1230.00, 1215.00.






Trading tips

It is relevant to increase the volumes of long positions from the levels of 1260.10, 1243.00, 1255.00 with the target at 1300.00 and stop loss 1230.00.

Spot Gold
Buy Sell Spread
1283.41 1282.77 64
Scenario
Timeframe Weekly
Recommendations BUY LIMIT
Entry Point 1260.10, 1243.00, 1255.00
Take Profit 1300.00
Stop Loss 1230.00
Support levels 1215.00, 1230.00, 1237.00, 1243.00, 1260.10, 1265.00, 1274.30, 1280.00, 1285.00, 1295.00, 1300.00, 1306.50

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

On Wednesday, the US dollar strengthened significantly against most majors, with the exception of the yen. Despite the correction that began during Asian trading, the US currency did not lose its accumulated advantage. The overall decline in the US stock market contributes to strengthening of the dollar. Investor interest in the USD returns amid fears of a slowdown in economic growth in the world in general and in China in particular. Macroeconomic events that can affect the dollar rate today include statistics from the United States on ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (15:15 GMT+2), Initial Jobless Claims (15:30 GMT+2), as well as statistics on ISM Manufacturing PMI (17:00 GMT+2). It is expected that ADP Nonfarm Employment Change will remain unchanged at the level of 179K in December, and the number of initial jobless claims will rise to 220K per week from 216K a week earlier. SM Manufacturing PMI is expected to decline to 57.7 points in December from 59.3 points a month earlier. If the forecasts prove right, the rate will fall under pressure.

EUR/USD

Quotes of the pair EUR/USD decreased to 1.1361 due to the strengthened USD. In the absence of news from euro area, the movement of the instrument will be influenced by the statistics from the United States.

GBP/USD

Quotes of GBP/USD went down to 1.2547 under pressure of the strengthening USD. Today, investors will focus on Construction PMI in the UK. The indicator is expected to fall to 52.9 points in December from 53.4 points a month earlier. If the forecast proves right, the pound may fall under pressure.

USD/JPY

After active decline and testing the support level of 104.68, during the Asian session, the USD/JPY quotes managed to recover some of the lost positions, correcting to the area of 106.70. Today, the stock exchanges in Japan are closed, so the dynamics of the instrument will be influenced by news from the United States.

AUD/USD

Quotes of the AUD/USD pair during the Asian session fell to the level of 0.6762, after which they corrected to the level of 0.6958 rather quickly. Due to the absence of significant macroeconomic releases in Australia, the movement of the instrument is mostly technical.

Gold

Quotes of gold demonstrate a positive trend during the Asian trading having reached 1290.00.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Gold is trading at semi-annual highs. The market situation made investors pay attention to traditional shelter assets, such as gold, JPY, and treasury bonds.

Yesterday, the fall of the American stock market, provoked by Apple, strengthened the instrument. Company CEO Tim Cook announced a decrease in profit forecast in the first quarter of this year. Similar statements were made earlier by representatives of other US companies. This news reinforced concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth amid a decline in industrial production in China and the EU. In addition, negative macroeconomic indicators and the suspension of the work of the government in the United States catalyze the interest of market participants in gold.

On Friday, traders are cautious due to an extremely rich news background. Investors are closely watching the stock market. Growth stocks of large American companies may provide treasury income and increase the attractiveness of the dollar, weakening the demand for gold.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument tests the upper border of Bollinger bands. The indicator is pointing up, and the price range is widening, indicating continued growth of the instrument. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping a strong buy signal. Stochastic is preparing to leave the overbought area.

Resistance levels: 1296.83, 1308.67, 1322.51.
Support levels: 1886.00, 1274.66, 1263.65, 1247.45, 1232.55.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1322.50 and stop loss 1283.50.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1282.90 with the targets at 1270.00, 1255.90 and stop loss 1290.30.

Implementation period: 1–3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex analitics. Morning Market Review

USD strengthened moderately against most majors during today's Asian session, after an active decline on Monday, caused by the publication of weak data on ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which was worse than expected and fell to 57.6 points in December from 60.7 points a month earlier. Investors reacted to this statistics by selling the US currency. The growth of the instrument observed during the Asian session is of a technical nature. Macroeconomic statistics able to influence USD include JOLTs Job Openings (17:00 GMT+2).

EUR/USD

Quotes of the EUR/USD pair, supported by positive statistics on retail sales in the euro area, and amid a general weakening of the US currency, rose to 1.1483, however, during Asian trading, they corrected to the level of 1.1441. Today, investors will pay attention to statistics on the Business Climate in the euro area. The indicator is expected to fall to 0.99 points in December from 1.09 points a month earlier. If the forecast proves right, the euro may fall under pressure.

GBP/USD

Quotes of the pair GBP/USD increased to 1.2770 due to the decline of USD. Today, investors are waiting for the publication of data on Halifax House Price Index. It is predicted that the value of the indicator in annual terms will rise to 0.4% in December from 0.3% a month earlier, and in monthly terms it will rise to 0.5% in December from –1.4% a month earlier.

USD/JPY

Quotes of the pair USD/JPY show moderate positive dynamics reaching the level of 108.75. Due to the absence of macroeconomic releases from Japan, the movement of the pair's exchange rate will be affected by US statistics.

AUD/USD

Quotes of the AUD/USD pair are moving within the narrow range of 0.7113–0.7148 having changed only slightly. Published at night, data from Australia indicated a decrease in the trade balance surplus to 1.930 billion dollars in November from 2.316 billion dollars a month earlier, but did not affect the rate of the instrument significantly.

Gold

During the Asian session, quotes of gold fell to 1282.00 due to correction of USD.