LiteForex Analytics

[MikhailLF]

AUD/USD: general review

Current trend

Along with CAD, Australian dollar has been showing the best results against USD this week. The pair AUD/USD has grown by almost 200 points from the beginning of the week and yesterday reached the level of May 2015.
US dollar that has been weakening for the second week in a row due to bad macroeconomic indicators (especially inflation and labor market) is also under pressure from the statement of FOMC Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues. Moreover, on Tuesday USD received one more major negative impulse after the Republicans and Trump administration failed to pass the health care bill that threw the President's ability to implement the reforms into question.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia published the minutes of a meeting on the fiscal policy in which the members of the regulator confirmed economic growth in the second quarter and the improvement of the situation of the labor market.
Yesterday's release from the US real estate market was positive, and USD showed minor growth remaining under pressure of the political situation. As a result, this week the pair broke through the important support level of 0.7800, 0.7900 and 0.7950, as well as 2-year maximum on the level 0.7830. Tonight's employment indicators and unemployment data from Australia were worse than outlooks which caused the pair to start correction.

Today the market is waiting for releases from the USA: industrial PMI from FRB Philadelphia that may drop by 3.6 points and initial and repeated jobless claims with expected minor decrease. All indicators are due at 14:30 (GMT+2).
The main scenario for today is the continuation of the pair's growth.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 0.7710, 0.7750, 0.7830, 0.7900.
Resistance levels: 0.7950, 0.8010, 0.8090, 0.8160.

Trading tips

Long positions may be opened at the market price with targets at 0.8010, 0,8090 and stop-loss at 0.7870.
Short positions may be opened from the level of 0.7900 with targets at 0.7830, 0.7750 and stop-loss at 0.8020.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. Brent Crude Oil: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the Brent oil reached psychologically strong level of 50.00 USD per barrel. During the next hours the price went down again, but as the OPEC has difficulties due to the increasing oil production in Libya, Nigeria and Iraq, this was quite a positive signal.

Technically in the situation of uncertainty, which can last until the OPEC Meeting in St. Petersburg on July, 24, the investors consider that the level of 50.00 USD per barrel was the target level, and the rollback is due to the closing of the profitable positions. During last two weeks the oil is strongly supported by the decrease of the USA recourses, which reflects the summer growth of the demand in the USA, which is the 20% of the world oil demand.

The positive factor is the growth of the oil import into China, which General Customs Directorate reported in June. In the first half of the year Chinese oil import surpassed the USA one for the first time, making the China the leading world oil importer.

Today the Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count will be published in the USA at 19:00 (GMT+2). While the oil rig number has been growing for the last 14 months, the increase has slowed in last weeks.

The investors are waiting for the OPEC meeting on July, 24, and probably won’t take any action before it, so the consolidation of the price is expected.

Support and resistance

Support levels: 48.50, 47.30, 46.70, 45.80.
Resistance levels: 50.00, 50.90, 51.50.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current price with the target at 48.50 and stop loss at 50.10.
Long positions can be opened at the level of 50.00 with the target at 50.90, stop loss is at 49.40.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. AUD/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Last week the AUD/USD pair was growing due to the positive Australian macroeconomical data publications and the USD weakness, caused by the political instability in the USA. On Friday the trade instrument lost around 80 points, but this fall was due to the closing of the profitable positions below the key resistance level of 0.8000. Today AUD has a high potential to grow and can break the key level of 0.8000 in the nearest future, as the positive changes in the employment market and the growth of the economical active population in Australia promise the growth of the consumer activity and the accelerating of the economical growth in the country.
Today the investors should pay attention on the PMI index in the USA. The publications are not expected to affect the pair, and the further upward trend will be developing today. The nearest key issues of the week are the RBA trimmed mean CPI and the Consumer Price Index publication in Australia.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the pair is growing alongside the upper Bollinger Band, reaching the key resistance level of 0.8000. The indicator is pointed upwards, as the price range is significantly widen, which can confirm the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram reached the maximum in the positive zone, keeping a buy signal. Stochastic is ready to leave the overbought area, which will be the signal to open short positions.

Support levels: 0.7910, 0.7870, 0.7810, 0.7760, 0.7725.
Resistance levels: 0.7965, 0.8000, 0.8065, 0.8090.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current price with the target at 0.8055 and stop loss at 0.7910. Implementation period: 1-2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 0.7905 with the target at 0.7840 and stop loss at 0.7935. Implementation period: 1-2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. USD/CHF: general analysis

Current trend

Since last week the pair has been trading around last May minimum due to the poor macroeconomical statistics and the decreasing possibility of the tightening of the USA Fed’s monetary policy. The price has broken the strong support level of 0.9510 and is still trading below this level. The US is falling and is under pressure of the macroeconomical data and political situation. The president of the Swiss National Bank Thomas Jordan commented that the franc was “highly overpriced” and the central bank would support negative interest rates.

On Monday the US Markit Manufacturing (53.2) and Services (54.2) PMI was published, which have grown against the previous period, and the pair was slightly corrected. It grew to the level of 0.9476 (+0.14%). However, generally, the market is waiting for the FRS Meeting on Wednesday, when the interest rate decision will be taken, and for the USA GDP report on Friday.

Support and resistance

The pair is trading around lower border of Bollinger Bands, which are widened and are pointing downwards, which reflects a “bearish” trend. However, CCI is in the oversold area, the signal line is pointed upwards; the breakout of the level of –100 will give a buy signal. RSI has left the oversold area and is at the level of 32.4, also pointed upwards, giving a buy signal.

Support levels: 0.94425, 0.93750, 0.92926.
Resistance levels: 0.94897, 0.95391, 0.96007, 0.96998, 0.98586, 1.00071.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price is set above the level of 0.94897 with the targets at 0.95159 and 0.96007.
Short positions will become relevant after the breakdown of the level of 0.94425 with the targets at 0.93750 and 0.92969.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. NZD/USD: the pair is in the horizontal channel

Current trend

Since the beginning of the week the pair has been in the narrow trading range 0.7443-0.7415 that currently coincides with Bollinger Bands. The calmness in the market is caused by waiting for today's Fed's meeting. The majority of experts do not believe in changes in the interest rate. Taking into account the fall of inflation in June (from 1.9% to 1.7%), the members of the Fed may abstain from making important decisions and will wait for autumn meetings. The rate is likely to remain at the level of 1.25%. The market will be interested in the follow-up statement that may give hints at further development of the monetary policy, for example, indicate the time for the beginning of balance reduction. NZD also lacks serious movement drivers. Important data on employment and dairy products index will be released only next week.

Support and resistance

Technically, the price is in the narrow side range of 0.7443-0.7415 that meets Bollinger Bands that narrowed down (as usual before considerable movements of the price). The consolidation of the price above the upper border of the range and the continuation of growth is possible to 0.7500 and 0.7550. In case the lower border is broken own, the fall may continue to 0.7360 and 0.7300 (Fibo correction 23.6%). Generally the market is uncertain (Bollinger Bands have narrowed and are located horizontally, as well as Stochastic) waiting for the results of the meeting of the US regulator.

Support levels: 0.7415, 0.7360, 0.7300.
Resistance levels: 0.7440, 0.7500, 0.7550.

Trading tips

If the price consolidates above 0.7443 long positions may be opened with targets at 0.7500, 0.756 and stop-loss at 0.7410. Consolidating below the level of 0.7415 will allow opening short positions with targets at 0.7360, 0.7300 and stop-loss at 0.7450.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. USD/JPY: general review

Current trend

Yesterday the Fed announced its decision on the interest rate. As expected, the value of 1.25% remained unchanged, but the cautious tone of the follow-up statement disappointed the investors that started to aggressively sell USD. As a result, the pair USD/JPY lost 100 points. At the same time, the US regulator still considers it possible that interest rates may be increased until the end of the year. Moreover, the Fed stated it intended to start reducing the volume of aggregated assets in September.

The key event of today will be the release of data on jobless claims by the US Department of Labor. The expected growth of initial jobless claims from 233K to 241K will lead to further fall of the pair.

Support and resistance

On the D1 chart the instrument is trading around the lower border of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is turning sideways, while the price range has widened indicating the continuation of the current trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone with its volumes reducing, and the signal line is directed downwards which is a signal for opening sell positions. Stochastic does not give clear signal for entering the market.

Support levels: 110.70, 110.35, 109.90, 109.40.
Resistance levels: 111.70, 112.15, 112.55, 112.95, 113.50.

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the current level with targets at 110.50, 110.35 and stop-loss at 111.40. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.
Long positions may be opened from the level of 111.75 with targets at 112.35 and stop-loss at 111.50. The period of implementation is 1-3 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. Brent: technical analysis

Current trend

Brent, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is growing along the upper line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above the EMA14, EMA65, EMA130 and just below the SMA200, which is horizontal. The RSI is approaching its strong resistance region. The Composite is growing having failed its longer MA.

Brent, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is trying to leave the overbought zone. The Composite is breaking down its longer MA. Both indicators have formed a Bearish divergence with the price.

Key levels

Support levels: 49.95 (March lows), 48.75 (local lows), 47.70 (local lows).
Resistance levels: 52.60 (June 2016 highs), 54.20 (February lows), 54.55 (May highs).

Trading tips

The price is approaching its medium-term descending trendline and the SMA200. There is a chance of a downward rebound.
Short positions can be opened from current prices with targets at 49.95, 48.75, 47.70 and stop-loss at 52.15. Validity – 3-5 days.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 52.60 with targets at 54.20, 54.55 and stop-loss at 51.85. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. NZD/USD: the pair is moving to correction

Current trend

NZD remained in the upward trend against USD due to rapid fall of the latter. US dollar has been decreasing for several months in view of negative fundamental data and unstable monetary policy of the Fed. NZD, on the contrary, experiences excessive demand after the release of strong statistics and due to the stability of New Zealand monetary policy. By now, the price has entered the consolidation stage after considerable growth and is trading within the 0.7530-0.7455 range. This week special attention should be paid to labor market data and main indexes from the USA and the level of unemployment in New Zealand.

Support and resistance

In the medium term the volume of demand is expected to drop due to locking in long positions in the pair NZD/USD. Long downward correction is very likely to form from the current level with target at 0.7420 (lower border of the channel) or below to the key support levels at 0.7335, 0.7275. Technical indicators continue to give a signal for further growth: the volume of long positions in MACD indicator remains on the high level, and Bollinger Bands are still pointing upwards.
Support levels: 0.7455, 0.7420, 0.7335, 0.7275, 0.7250, 0.7200.
Resistance levels: 0.7530, 0.7550, 0.7575, 0.7600, 0.7650.

Trading tips

In the short term sell positions may be opened from the current maximum (in a view of corrective downward movement) with target at 0.7420, 0.7335. Stop-loss may be placed at 0.7590.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. GBP/USD: the upward trend is still strong

Current trend

The British currency continues to go up against US dollar in view of the falling USD rate. Within two trading weeks the pair has been moving within the upward tendency without long corrections which indicates considerable decrease of demand for USD. US fundamental data cannot support the rate of the American currency. This and last week negative statistics was released on a number of macroeconomic indicators, namely construction sector, demand for durable goods, and labor market. The pound, in turn, is supported by strong demand and positive releases by key indexes.

Despite negative data on UK PMI, GBP continues to grow. In the end of the current week special attention should be paid to labor market data and the main US indexes, as well as the decision of the Bank of England on the volumes of economic stimulation program and interest rate. Moreover, the follow-up speech by the head of the Bank of England Mark Carney scheduled for Thursday, may provide additional support for the pound.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair has a reserve of upward movement to the upper border of the upward channel at the level of 1.3450 followed by a long downward tendency. Currently there are no grounds for USD support from the fundamental background and the actions of the US regulator. Technical indicators confirm this tendency: MACD shows the preservation of the high volume of long positions, and Bollinger Bands point upwards.

Support levels: 1.3200, 1.3125, 1.2930, 1.2805, 1.2700, 1.2590.
Resistance levels: 1.3310, 1.3380, 1.3450, 1.3480, 1.3670, 1.3750.

Trading tips
Long positions may be opened from the current level with target at 1.3450 and stop-loss at 1.3100.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. NI225: technical analysis

NI225, D1

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading just below the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains below its moving averages that are horizontal. The RSI is falling having broken down its longer MA. The Composite is approaching its strong support region.

NI225, H4

On the hourly chart, the instrument is falling along the lower line of Bollinger Bands. The price remains just below its moving averages that start turning down. The RSI is approaching the border of the oversold zone. The Composite is falling as well.
Key levels
Support levels: 19889.00 (local lows), 19865.00 (July lows), 19670.00 (March highs).
Resistance levels: 20198.00 (July highs), 20288.00 (June highs), 20550.00 (May 2015 highs).

Trading tips

The price is forming a “contraction triangle” pattern. Positions can be opened after a breakout of either of its borders.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 20198.00 with targets at 20288.00, 20550.00 and stop-loss at 20090.00. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 19865.00 with the target at 19670.00 and stop-loss at 19963.00. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

After yesterday's fall gold price has restored lost positions and is currently trading at the level of 1268.00. The price of the metal as a safe haven asset is growing, while US dollar is weak after the Fed's refusal to increase the rates this year due to low inflation.

On Friday the market is waiting for a report on the number of non-farm payrolls. NFPR will gain 183K in July against 222K in June. The level of unemployment will drop to 4.3% from 4.4%, and average hourly salary will slightly grow from 0.2% to 0.3% in June, as expected.

Support and resistance

On the H4 chart XAU/USD is consolidating near the 1268.00 mark. The price has returned to the upward channel after a false break-through. MACD indicator is below the signal line with its volumes reducing, Stochastic lines are in the overbought area and directed to the side.

Resistance levels: 1273.70, 1280.00, 1288.00.
Support levels: 1256.00, 1250.00, 1242.00.

Trading tips

The pair may be bought if the price breaks through 1274.00 with target at 1280.00 and stop-loss at 1272.00.
Short positions should become relevant below the level of 1263.00 with targets at 1250.00 and stop-loss at 1266.00.
Implementation time: 1-2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Today the price for WTI continues to move within the narrow side range 48.50-49.70.

During the Friday trading the price of oil was supported by the data on the reduction of the number of oil rigs in the USA. Within the week that ended on August 4 it was reduced by 1 to 765.

On the other hand, despite that the production of oil in the USA reached 9.43mln barrels a day which is the highest indicator since August 2015. Moreover, according to last week's release by Thompson Reuters Oil Research, the export of oil in OPEC states in July reached the record-setting level of 26.11 barrels a day.
In the beginning of the current week the members of OPEC+ technical committee will meet in Abu Dhabi to discuss the fulfillment of obligation to reduce oil production by certain parties to the agreement.

Support and resistance

The price of WTI is trading around MA(200) at the level of 49.50 and is still unable to break through it. MACD indicator is located above zero and signal lines, and Stochastic is in the neutral zone with its lines pointing downwards. Indicators give uncertain signals.

Resistance levels: 46. 60, 47.40, 48.20.
Support levels: 45.80, 45.20, 44.40

Trading tips

Short positions may be opened from the level of 48.40 with target at 47.30 and stop-loss at 49.00.
Buy positions may be opened if the price consolidates above 50.40 with targets at 51.90 and stop-loss at 50.00.
The period of implementation is 1-2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. SX5E: technical analysis

SX5E, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains above its moving averages that start turning up. The RSI is about to test its strong resistance. The Composite is growing as well.

SX5E, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is trading in the upper Bollinger band. The price remains just below the SMA200 and above the EMA14, EMA65 and EMA130 that start turning up. The RSI is growing towards the border of the overbought zone. The Composite turned up as well.

Key levels

Support levels: 3462.0 (local lows), 3430.0 (July lows), 3399.0 (April lows).
Resistance levels: 3515.0 (local highs), 3533.0 (July highs), 3552.0 (May lows).

Trading tips

The price is consolidating above its previous descending trendline. The growth is likely to continue.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 3515.0 with targets at 3533.0, 3552.0 and stop-loss at 3502.0. Validity – 3-5 days.
Short positions can be opened from the level of 3462.0 with targets at 3430.0, 3399.0 and stop-loss at 3480.0. Validity – 3-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair is moving within the narrow range, waiting for significant fundamental or economical releases, which can determine the further dynamics. The growth of the pair slowed after significant growth in the end of the last week. The market split into two parts, one considers the strengthening of USD against CAD reflects the decrease of oil prices in the nearest future, the other believes that the pair is in the correction of the strong downward trend, and soon the pair will fall again.

Today traders should pay attention to Q2 Unit Labor Costs publication and Nonfarm Productivity statistics in the USA. In Canada Housing Starts data will be released, which reflect the strength of Canadian housing market and shows the economy state. The decrease against the previous values is expected, which can affect Canadian currency negatively.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart the pair is moving within the narrow range, formed by the upper border and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. MACD is in the positive zone, keeping a signal to open long positions.

Support levels: 1.2660, 1.2635, 1.2600, 1.2550.
Resistance levels: 1.2700, 1.2730, 1.2750.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the current level with the target at 1.2730 and stop loss at 1.2635. Implementation period: 1-3 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1.2600 with the target at 1.2550 and stop loss at 1.2635.
Implementation period: 2-5 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. EUR/USD: the pair is decreasing in view of the upcoming inflation data

Current trend

The quotes of EUR/USD are decreasing today. Euro appeared to be under pressure of negative data on the volume of industrial output in France which reduced by 1.1% in June. Moreover, the fall of the pair was facilitated by the investors’ waiting for tomorrow’s data on CPI. The indicator is expected to grow in July from 0.0% to 0.2% MoM and from 1.6% to 1.8% YoY. The correctness of this forecast is proven by the growth of average salary in the USA in July by 0.3%. On the other hand, import prices have been decreasing since January, although the outlook for July is positive as well (the indicator is expected to grow by 0.1% after 2 months of falling). Generally, the possibility of inflation growth in the USA is quite high, but it may not reach the forecast levels.

In the absence of important economic statistics today attention may be pair do the statement by the member of the Fed, head of FRB New York William Dudley in the framework of press briefing dedicated to the issues of salary payment in the region. Geopolitics may also make corrections to the movement of the pair. According to recent data, the US Department of Defense already has a plan of a preventive strike at 20 military objects of North Korea. Further aggravation of the situation between the USA and North Korea may lead to considerable market volatility and the weakening of USD.

Support and resistance

Currently the price is testing an important support level of 1.1700 (Fibo correction 23.6%, Murrey main support level , lower line of Bollinger Bands). Breaking through it may lead to further reduction to 1.1655 and 1.1590 (Fibo correction 38.2%, Murrey level ). One may speak about growth after the consolidation of the price above the level of 1.1755 (Fibo correction 38.2% for the long-term trend, middle line of Bollinger Bands). In this case the price may grow to 2-week maximums at 1.1890.

Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1590, 1.1500.
Resistance levels: 1.1755, 1.1825, 1.1890.

Trading tips

In the current situation short positions should be opened after the price consolidates below 1.1700 with targets at 1.1655 and 1.1590. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.1740.

Long positions will become relevant after the breakout of the level of 1.1755 and the middle line of Bollinger Bands. The targets will be at 1.1825 and 1.1890. Stop-loss should be placed at 1.1710.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. XAU/USD: general analysis

Current trend

XAU/USD is strengthening due to the poor macroeconomic statistic publication in the USA and political tense between USA and North Korea.

Yesterday the Initial Jobless Claims data were published, which were worse than expected: the index grew from 241 to 244K, as the experts supposed the fall to 240K. In addition, the July Producer Price Index unexpectedly falls by 0.1%, which resulted in the decrease of the YoY indicator. The USD is also under the pressure due to New York Fed’s president William Dudley’s statement, who expressed the fear of the low inflation. In the current situation gold is an attractive asset for the investors in the short term.

Today’s key release is Consumer Price Index publication in the USA. If the indicator is worse than expected, the pair will too likely to renew the year highs.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart the instrument is trying to consolidate above the level of 1290.00. Bollinger Bands are pointed upwards; the price range stays the same, reflecting the high possibility of the development of the upward trend. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, keeping buy signal. Stochastic is ready to enter the overbought area.

Support levels: 1265.00, 1270.40, 1274.75, 1280.75.
Resistance levels: 1289.00, 1296.20, 1307.00.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened at the level of 1289.50 with the target at 1300.00 and stop loss at 1286.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.
Short positions can be opened at the level of 1280.00 with the target at 1270.25 and stop loss at 1284.00. Implementation period: 1–2 days.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. USD/JPY: yen is under pressure

Current trend

The pair started the week with growth to the level of 109.65. Although initial GDP data of Japan for Q2 2017 showed growth (from 1.5% to 4.0% YoY and from 0.3% to 1.0% MoM), yen is weakening. It is under pressure from July data on industrial output and retail sales in China that were the worst since January 2017.

The situation in the Japanese economy is also uncertain. The growth of GDP in Q2 2017 was caused by increased internal demand and consumer spending. However, durable goods account for a considerable part of them, which may indicates that the costs are seasonal, and that in the future the tendency for their increase would not preserve and new pressure will be put on the GDP volume.

Support and resistance

Technically the price grew above the middle line of Bollinger Bands (109.50) and is aiming at 110.05 (Fibo correction 23.6%). If this level is broken out, growth may continue to 110.80 (gathering of Fibo corrections 23.6% and 38.2%) and 111.55 (Fibo correction 50.0%). However, one cannot exclude the reversal and return of the price to August minimums at 108.70. Technical indicators show mixed signals: MACD histogram is reducing in the negative zone, and Stochastic is turning downwards to the overbought zone.

Support levels: 109.50, 108.70, 108.00.
Resistance levels: 110.05, 110.80, 111.55, 112.20.

Trading tips

In this situation, short positions could be opened below 109.50 with target at 108.70. Stop-loss order may be placed at 109.80.
If the price consolidates above 110.05, long positions could be opened with target at 110.80, 111.55 and stop-loss at 109.70.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex. GBP/USD: pound is under the pressure of high inflation

Current trend

On Tuesday the pair was rapidly corrected to the level of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%). US dollar was supported by strong July Retail Sales data (in July the index grew by 0.6%) and new rumors upon the soon Fed’s interest rate rise. On the other hand, pound is under the pressure of June UK Consumer Price Index, which stayed at the same high level of 2.6%, as the fall of fuel prices was balance by the growth of food prices.

The long term maintenance of the high level of inflation raises concerns of market, as the earning index in the UK don’t keep pace with the Consumer Price Index growth, which leads to the impoverishing of the households, fall of retail sales and pressure on the GDP.

Today the Average Earnings data will be published in the UK, the index including bonus is expected to stay on the same level of 2.0% and index excluding bonus — on the level of 1.8% In this case the pair can decrease further. In addition, investors are waiting for the employment market data in the UK, which are expected to be more positive. The decrease of unemployment level from 5.9K to 3.7K is expected in June.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is trading within the narrow sideways range of 1.2845 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%) and 1.2880 (Murray ), waiting for the employment and earnings data. In case of breakout of the upper border of the range the price can grow to the levels of 1.2930 (Fibonacci correction 50.0%, the middle line of Bollinger Bands) and 1.3005 (Fibonacci correction 38.2%, Murray ). The consolidation of the price below the level of 1.2845 can let it go down to the area of 1.2800 and 1.2750 (Fibonacci correction 61.8%).

Support levels: 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2750.
Resistance levels: 1.2880, 1.2930, 1.3005.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 1.2880 with the targets at 1.2930, 1.3005 and stop loss around 1.2840.
Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.2845 with the targets at 1.2800, 1.2750 and stop loss at 1.2880.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex EUR/USD: the pair is trading in the downward channel

Current trend

On Thursday the pair tested the level of 1.1700 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%) again, but couldn’t consolidate below it and began to grow after the poor July US Industrial production data publication (the indicator decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%). At the moment the price is trading around the middle line of Bollinger Bands (1.1740) due to controversial factors. EUR is under the pressure of the terrorist acts in Spain, as USD is affected by the conflict in Trump’s administration. The rumors about the chief President economic advisor Gary D. Cohn resign were not confirmed, which slowed the fall of the US currency.

Yesterday the Head of FRB Robert S. Kaplan mentioned that the politics and investors should be patient and reasonable in waiting for the new interest rate rise. He also said that the balance-sheet reduction process can be started in the nearest future, while it’s better to wait for the stable growth of the inflation before the interest rate rise, which disappointed the market.

Support and resistance

Technically the pair is trading within the downward channel and is tending to its upper border at the area of 1.1780 (Fibonacci correction 38.2% for the long term trend). In case of breakout the price can grow to August highs at the level of 1.1880. In case of reversal around 1.1780 the fall to the key support level of 1.1700 (Fibonacci correction 23.6%, Murray ) is possible.

Support levels: 1.1700, 1.1590, 1.1500.
Resistance levels: 1.1780, 1.1880, 1.1950.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened at the current price or at the level of 1.1780 with the targets at 1.1700 and 1.1590 from stop loss at around 1.1810.
If the price is set above the level of 1.1780, long positions will become relevant with the target at 1.1880 and stop loss at 1.1760.

 

[MikhailLF]

LiteForex WTI Crude Oil: general review

Current trend

Oil prices grew rapidly after the release of the data from Baker Hughes on Friday indicating the reduction in the number of active drilling rigs in the USA by 5 to 763 which is the biggest reduction of the indicator in the last 7 months. In view of this the quotes of WTI grew by 3.38% to 48.60.

Oil prices were additionally supported by the news that Exxon Mobil Corp decided to close one of the biggest refineries in the USA. Today WTI quotes are gradually reducing in the framework of downward correction.

Support and resistance

In he absence of growth drivers downward correction is likely to continue in the near future. The main target of correction seems to be the level of 47.55 that coincides with the middle line of Bollinger Bands. After reaching this level the price is likely to move back to 48.85. One may speak about downward movement after the price consolidates below 47.55. In this case the next target of the sellers will be 46.57.

Technical indicators show the preservation of the upward trend but do not exclude the possibility of downward correction. MACD histogram is growing in the positive zone indicating preserved influence of the buyers. Bollinger Bands diverge confirming the upward trend. However, the price has broken through the upper line of Bollinger Bands which indicates the possibility of downward correction of the rate to 47.55 corresponding to the middle line of Bollinger Bands. One may speak about the continuation of the upward trend after the price consolidates above 48.85.

Support levels: 48.42, 47.55, 46.57.
Resistance levels: 48.85, 49.69, 50.42.

Trading tips

Sell positions may be opened below 48.42 with targets at 47.55 and stop-loss at 48.70.
Buy positions may be opened after the price is fixed above 48.85 with the nearest target at 49.69 and stop-loss at 48.55.