Navigation FX - Technical & Fundamental Analysis

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USD/TRY – Triangle formation, breakout imminent

A few of you have been asking us to post a technical analysis of an exotic pair, so we choose to do one that we believe will bring in plenty of pips.

As many of you know, the Turkish Lira against the US Dollar has been its weakest in history with the TRY under constant pressure from the political instability and terrorist attacks that looms over the country. The strong dollar has also aided its depreciation.

A triangle formation has formed and we can see on the analysis that the triangle has been tested many times. With the continuing uncertainty in Turkey, when the triangle breaks, we may expect to see TRY depreciate at least 200 pips.

Just to note that the image shows a H1 graph. RSI is at 66....

Fore more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdtry-technical-analysis/

 

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USD/JPY – ISOSCELES TRIANGLE
Markets have begun to enter the Christmas and New Year holiday season with the near end to 2016. Today we have seen significant moves within durable goods orders and growth data from the US.

In today’s technical analysis, we highlighted an isosceles triangle formation in USDJPY which implies to us that there will be a significant movements if the triangle is broken either up or down the triangle.

The important points to note are 117.90 and 117.40 for a potential breakout... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdjpy-technical-analysis/

 

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USD/CAD – Technical Analysis strong 50.0 fibo resistance and upward trendline
Canada has been under significant pressure with its economy with today’s disappointing GDP data including a contraction in manufacturing.

We firstly drew a trend-line on this daily chart and drew a fibo from its swing high of 1.4693 to the swing low of 1.2460. Firstly we saw that there is a good 50.0 resistance ranging form 1.3575-1.3585 with this being tested on the 14th April.

We may see USDCAD set to increase if this resistance is broken up to the 61.8 fibo level 1.3839. RSI is also showing a bullish trend at 63. If this resistance is broken, we well may see an increase of up to 300 pips! Yes. I said 300... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdcad-technical-analysis-3/

 

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USD/TRY – TRIANGLE FORMATION, BREAKOUT
In the last week week of the year we have seen an increase in US dollar vs. TL. We see that the Turkish Lira has been depreciating against the US dollar against more than other emerging market currencies.

The past few days have shown that buyers remain control in this parity, breaking upwards in a triangle formation.

We see RSI flipping over, reaching towards 70 indicating that buyers are continuing their stance. Important places to note are 3.55-3.56 and 3.5960 resistances, where these points will react to increases... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdtry-technical-analysis-2/

 

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USD/JPY – STRONG RESISTANCE
The Japanese Yen has been on a bearish run for some time now. There is pressure with regards to 2017 Monetary Policy divergence for both countries. The US aims at tightening the FED and in contrast Japan’s BOJ looks to ease.

By looking at the weekly view, we can really see that there was considerable support at 118.50 – 118.69 in late November 2014 to January 2016.

The new resistance now formed on the 11th December 2016... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdjpy-technical-analysis-2/

 

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USD/CAD – BULLISH CHANNEL

We see that USDCAD has formed a bearish channel since early May 2016.

The parity climbed above 1.36 in the last week of 2016. Oil prices have risen, pushing the direction down over 400 pips.

USDCAD bounced the fourth time on the channel on the 6th January 2016. We see that RSI is near the 40 region as well as the 100 DMA, meaning that it could well continue this trend.

We may see the channel break if Wednesday the 18th January’s BoC interest rate decision decides to take a negative course. Also to look out is CPI and Core Retail sales data on Friday 20th January.... For more visit http://www.navigationfx.com/usdcad-technical-analysis-4/

 

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NZD/USD – CHANNEL FORMED with KEY SUPPORTS

If you remember a couple weeks ago we posted a technical analysis of the NZDUSD channel changing direction perpendicular to itself.

We see that the channel had changed direction. RSI suggests to us that the momentum has changed from buying to selling again, which corresponds with the channel we have drawn.

We see a key support at 0.6945, where this has been tested many times over the year, but only once this has broken and tested the channel. If the support breaks again, this may be a good time to put a sell order as we may see the parity go down further by 80 pips to the next key support at 0.6886-0.6877.

We will keep an eye on this channel and update you as to if the 0.6886-0.6877 is broken.

For more please see: http://www.navigationfx.com/nzdusd-technical-analysis-4/

 

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GBP/USD – Descending trend line

GBP has been falling with the wake that the UK may have a ‘hard brexit’ as opposed to a soft brexit. Recent developments include that the UK may not even have access to the EU single market.

Just come out a few minutes ago trade balance data has significantly missed expectations. A post that we will follow soon.

We can see in the technical analysis that the GBP is following a descending triangle. Key resistance points include 1.21059 which it had just tested. RSI daily is indicating that sellers are continuing to enter the market.

If the resistance of 1.21059 breaks, we may surely see sellers enter the market and rally the parity down further to 1.20658, making a potential of 40 pips. For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/gbpusd-technical-analysis-4/

 

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USD/CHF – Ascending Trend Line

Yesterday’s press conference with President-Elect Donald Trump was an interesting one to say the least. All talk about Russia and nothing on financial policies. Since after, we saw significant bullish movements in safe havens such as Gold, Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

Technically we can see here that the parity has tested this support line on a few times. Just to let you know the graphic below is a 4-Hour chart (H4). Even though this an ascending trendline, the RSI is suggesting to us that selling momentum is increasing, meaning that if it tests again, it could break out.

If it were to break out, the next support would certainly be at 1.0000. A dangerous area as this is a psychological resistance, make sure to be careful in this vicinity... For more: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdchf-technical-analysis-2/

 

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USDJPY – Bearish Channel Formed with 50 DMA creeping
As mentioned with our previous post, yesterday’s press conference with President-Elect Donald Trump was an interesting one to say the least. All talk about Russia and nothing on financial policies. Since after, we saw significant bullish movements in safe havens such as Gold, Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc.

Technically we can see a nice bearish channel being formed, with the channel being tested on two occasions. We see that RSI is also below 50 meaning that selling momentum is increasing.

USDJPY Hourly (H1)
We have not seen much moving average moment for some time with this parity and in this photo the 50 DMA is slowly creeping up to the channel, if this hits parity, a breakout may be imminent. Tread very carefully.

50 DMA JPY with RSI

For more on this and better images: http://www.navigationfx.com/usdjpy-technical-analysis-3/