News Announcement & Chart Analysis by PlexyTrade

MiloPlexyTrade · Jul 9, 2024

News Announcements & Chart Analysis by PlexyTrade

On July 10th, New Zealand will announce its Official Cash Rate. This chart from the previous announcement on May 22nd illustrates the NZD/USD pair's reaction over a 5-minute candlestick, providing valuable insights to anticipate tomorrow's market movements.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jul 10, 2024

The U.S. is set to release its Unemployment Claims on July 11th; the chart below illustrates the EUR/USD's response in 5-minute candlesticks to the July 3rd announcement.

On July 11, the US will publish its Core CPI m/m data, along with a chart showing EURUSD movements in five-minute intervals from the previous release on June 12.

On July 11th, the U.S. will release its year-over-year CPI figures. Below is a 5-minute timeframe chart of EUR/USD from the previous announcement.

On July 11, Great Britain will release its GDP m/m; below is the GBP/JPY 5-minute candlestick chart from the previous release on June 12.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jul 12, 2024

On July 15th, the U.S. will release the Empire State Manufacturing Index; the chart shows USDJPY's movements on June 17th in 5-minute candlesticks.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jul 15, 2024

16th July 2024

Tuesday

On July 16th, several key economic indicators will be released globally, potentially influencing financial markets. Germany will publish its ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, reflecting the economic outlook. Canada's inflation data will be essential for assessing its economic climate and potential interest rate adjustments. In the U.S., the monthly retail and core retail sales figures will offer insights into consumer spending and broader economic activities, impacting domestic and international policies. Meanwhile, New Zealand will report its quarterly Consumer Price Index, further shaping global market sentiments and economic directions.

EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is a diffusion index based on a survey of approximately 300 German institutional investors and analysts. This index is a leading indicator of the nation's economic health, capturing the economic outlook for the next six months. Participants in the survey are well-informed individuals whose shifts in sentiment can serve as early signals of future economic activity. Typically, a reading above 0.0 signifies optimism, while a value below 0.0 indicates pessimism. For the currency markets, an 'Actual' index value that exceeds the 'Forecast' suggests a positive outcome for the currency.

In a notable development, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany reached a peak of 47.5 in June 2024, marking its highest level since February 2022. This figure rose slightly from 47.1 in May, though it fell short of the anticipated 50. Simultaneously, the assessment of current conditions witnessed a decline, with the sub index worsening to -73.8 from -72.3, a miss against the expected -65. This twin dynamic highlights a continuing stagnation in economic expectations and the real-time economic situation within Germany. Moreover, inflation expectations among respondents have edged up, likely driven by inflation rates in May that surpassed forecasts, further complicating the economic outlook.

The ZEW German Sentiment Index is forecasted to be 44.3, down from the previous figure of 47.5.

The next German ZEW Economic Sentiment survey is scheduled for Tuesday at 9:00 AM GMT.

CAD – CPI y/y

The Consumer Price Index Core, released monthly by the Bank of Canada, tracks changes in the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services for Canadian consumers, providing a measure of underlying inflation. It strategically excludes eight volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation, and tobacco products to achieve this. This index's Year-over-Year (YoY) reading compares the current month's prices to those from the same month in the previous year. Generally, a higher reading suggests a bullish outlook for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), whereas a lower reading implies a bearish perspective.

Canada's inflation rate for May 2024 climbed to 2.9%, up from 2.7% in April, contradicting forecasts that expected a decline to 2.6%. This unexpected rise put a pause on the anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, which had predicted inflation would stay near 3% in the first half of the year. Notable increases were seen in transportation costs, which jumped to 3.5% due in part to a 4.5% rise in air transportation prices. Food prices also ticked up to 2.5% from 2.4%, with grocery costs climbing slightly. Additionally, health and personal care inflation rose sharply to 3.6%, while the decrease in prices for household operations, furnishings, and equipment slowed. Meanwhile, shelter costs remained high but stable at 6.4%. Overall, the Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.6% from the previous month.

The year-on-year CPI forecast shows no change, staying at the previous outcome of 2.9%.

CAD - CPI m/m

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month measure tracks changes in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. A higher-than-forecasted CPI reading is generally positive for the currency, as consumer prices contribute significantly to overall inflation. Inflation is a crucial factor for currency valuation because rising prices typically prompt central banks to increase interest rates to control inflation. This index is derived by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing them to previous data, providing a clear snapshot of inflation trends. Consequently, CPI data is closely monitored by traders and economists alike.

In May 2024, Canada experienced a notable uptick in inflation, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.6% from the previous month. This increase, which exceeded analysts' expectations of a modest 0.3% rise, follows a 0.5% increase in April. A significant contributor to this inflationary pressure was the rising cost of travel tours, which played a central role in pushing the index higher than anticipated. This trend indicates a marked shift in consumer spending patterns, particularly in the travel sector, as the summer season begins.

The projected month-over-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to be 0.2%, down from the previous figure of 0.6%.

CAD - Median CPI y/y

The median CPI year-over-year measures the change in the median price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Typically, if the actual value is greater than the forecast, it is favorable for the currency. This is because consumer prices account for a significant portion of overall inflation, which is crucial for currency valuation. Rising prices often prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to contain inflation. The median CPI is derived by sampling the average price of various goods and services and comparing it to previous samples.

In May 2024, Canada experienced an unexpected acceleration in the Median Consumer Price Index (CPI), as it increased to 2.8% year-over-year from 2.6% in April, according to the latest data from Statistics Canada. This rise in the CPI-median, one of the Bank of Canada’s favored gauges for assessing underlying inflation trends, surpassed the market projections that had anticipated the rate would hold steady at 2.6%. This unexpected increase indicates a shift in inflation dynamics and could influence future monetary policy decisions, particularly impacting the likelihood of an interest rate cut which had been considered possible by financial markets.

The year-over-year forecast for Median CPI is anticipated to be 2.8%, unchanged from the previous result of 2.8%.

CAD – Trimmed CPI y/y

The Trimmed CPI year-over-year measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 40% of items. When the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast', it is considered positive for the currency. This metric is crucial for traders because consumer prices constitute the majority of overall inflation. Rising prices often prompt central banks to raise interest rates to contain inflation, directly impacting currency valuation. The Trimmed CPI is derived by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing them to previous samples.

In May 2024, Canada's trimmed-mean core inflation rate, a critical indicator used by the Bank of Canada for shaping monetary policy, registered a 2.9% increase, surpassing the anticipated 2.8% forecast by analysts. This rise comes after a consistent 2.8% increase in the previous month, signaling a slight but notable acceleration in underlying inflation trends. The Bank of Canada closely monitors this measure to make informed decisions regarding interest rates and other monetary policies, aiming to manage economic stability and growth. This uptick could influence future monetary policy decisions as the central bank assesses the ongoing economic landscape.

The annual forecast for Trimmed CPI is projected to be 2.9%, consistent with the previous rate of 2.9%.

The next CPI release from Canada is scheduled for Tuesday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USDCAD CPI mm, Median CPI yy & Trimmed CPI yy CAD.jpg

USD - Core Retail Sales m/m

The Core Retail Sales month-over-month measure, which tracks changes in the total value of sales at the retail level excluding automobiles, is a key economic indicator. It is considered more reliable than the overall Retail Sales data because automobile sales, which make up about 20% of retail sales, are highly volatile and can distort underlying trends. An 'actual' figure that exceeds the forecast is typically viewed as positive for the currency, reflecting stronger consumer spending trends.

Core retail sales in the United States, excluding motor vehicles and parts, decreased by 0.1% month-on-month in May, according to the Commerce Department. This decline follows a downwardly revised 0.1% drop in April and is lower than market expectations of a 0.2% increase. The slowdown in core retail sales highlights the ongoing impact of high interest rates and inflation on consumer spending, raising concerns among economists about the potential for a significant economic slowdown. Despite this monthly decrease, core retail sales are up by 2.5% on a yearly basis.

The forecast for Core Retail Sales month-over-month shows a slight increase, projected at 0.1% compared to the previous decline of -0.1%.

USD - Retail Sales m/m

The monthly Retail Sales report, which measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level, has significant implications for the economy. Typically, an 'Actual' figure that exceeds the 'Forecast' is seen as positive for the currency. This metric is closely monitored because it serves as the primary gauge of consumer spending, which constitutes the majority of overall economic activity. Often referred to as Advance Retail Sales, this report is crucial for understanding economic trends and consumer behavior.

Retail sales in the US increased by 0.1% in May 2024, falling short of economists' expectations of a 0.3% rise, as high interest rates and inflation continued to impact consumer spending. This follows a revised 0.2% decline in April. Excluding autos and gas, sales also rose 0.1%, below the anticipated 0.4% increase but better than April's 0.3% drop. Gasoline stations experienced the steepest decline, with sales dropping 2.2%, while furniture and home stores saw a 1.1% decrease. Conversely, sporting goods and hobby stores reported a 2.8% increase, leading the gains. The Federal Reserve's recent economic projections indicate a potential interest rate cut this year, raising concerns about a possible economic slowdown due to prolonged high rates. Overall, consumer sentiment appears to be cooling, with modest increases seen in sectors like clothing, motor vehicles, and non store retailers.

The forecast for month-over-month Retail Sales shows an expected increase of 0.1%, unchanged from the previous figure of 0.1%.

The upcoming release for Core Retail Sales month-over-month (m/m) and Retail Sales month-over-month (m/m) is scheduled for Tuesday at 12:30 PM GMT.

GBPUSD Core Retail Sales mm & Retail Sales mm USD.jpg

NZD - CPI q/q

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the quarterly change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Typically, a CPI figure higher than the forecast is positive for the currency. Although this data is released later than similar inflation metrics from other countries, it is a key indicator of consumer prices and often significantly impacts the market. Traders closely monitor CPI because consumer prices constitute a major portion of overall inflation, which influences central banks' decisions on interest rates in line with their mandate to control inflation. The CPI is derived by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing them to previous samples.

New Zealand's quarterly inflation rate witnessed a modest increase in March 2024, rising to 0.6 % from 0.5 % in the preceding period, as reported by Statistics NZ. Despite this uptick, the annual inflation rate saw a decline to 4 % in March from 4.7 % in December, although housing-related costs such as rents, construction, and council rates continued to climb, with housing and household utility costs rising by 0.7 %. These figures, while showing a slight quarter-on-quarter increase, still remain above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's target range of 1 to 3 %, underscoring ongoing inflationary pressures within the economy. The rise in quarterly inflation was driven by various factors including increases in housing and household utility costs, while recreation and culture rose by 2.4 %, and alcohol and tobacco also contributed significantly to the annual inflation rate, with alcoholic beverages up by 5 % and cigarettes and tobacco up by 10.4 %. The persistently high levels of non-tradable inflation, primarily driven by domestic factors like housing costs and tobacco prices, suggest a cautious stance from the Reserve Bank, with rate cuts not anticipated in the near term according to economists.

The upcoming release for New Zealand's quarter-over-quarter CPI is scheduled for Tuesday at 10:45 PM GMT.

The forecast for the quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to remain at 0.6%, unchanged from the previous reading.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jul 25, 2024

26th July 2024

Friday

On July 26th, the United States is set to release two significant economic indicators that are expected to influence market dynamics considerably. The Core PCE Price Index, a key measure of inflation excluding food and energy costs, will be released on a month-over-month basis. This index is closely monitored by market analysts and policymakers due to its high impact on financial markets. Additionally, the Revised University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index will be updated, providing insights into consumer attitudes and spending behaviors. This index, which is considered to have a medium impact on the market, serves as a valuable tool for forecasting economic trends and consumer confidence levels.

USD - Core PCE Price Index m/m (High Impact)

The Core PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, is the Federal Reserve's main measure of inflation. An increase above forecasts typically strengthens the currency as it prompts the Fed to raise interest rates to control inflation, affecting economic and currency stability. This index is crucial for traders monitoring potential shifts in monetary policy.

Inflationary pressures in the United States showed signs of easing in May 2024. The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, closely monitored by the Fed, rose by just 0.1% from the previous month, matching expectations and marking the slowest monthly increase since March 2021. On an annual basis, core PCE inflation also moderated to 2.6% in May, down slightly from 2.8% in the previous period and representing the slowest annual gain in over three years. The report follows a trend of promising inflation readings for May, including a subdued increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Despite these developments, Federal Reserve officials remain cautious about the trajectory of inflation, emphasizing the need for sustained positive data before considering any adjustments to monetary policy. Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored this sentiment, stating that while there has been some progress towards their inflation target, further favorable data is necessary to build confidence in a sustainable path towards their objectives.

The monthly Core PCE Price Index is projected to increase to 0.2%, up from the prior 0.1% figure.

The upcoming monthly release of the Core PCE Price Index is scheduled for Friday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment (Medium Impact)

The Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, derived from a survey of approximately 500 consumers who assess current and future economic conditions, measures the level of a composite index based on consumer perceptions. An 'Actual' reading that exceeds the 'Forecast' is typically positive for the currency because financial confidence serves as a leading indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes a majority of overall economic activity.

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. continued its downward trend in July, hitting its lowest point since November. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index fell for the fourth consecutive month, dropping to 66 from 68.2 in June, and falling short of the forecasted 68.5. Persistent worries about high prices and economic uncertainty, coupled with the upcoming election, are weighing heavily on consumers. The index for current conditions decreased to 64.1 from 65.9, while the expectations component dropped to 67.2 from 69.6. Additionally, short-term and long-term inflation expectations both eased slightly, now at 2.9% compared to 3% previously.

The Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is forecasted to rise slightly to 66.3, up from the previous reading of 66.0.

The revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index is scheduled for release on Friday at 2:00 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jul 29, 2024

30th July 2024

Tuesday

On July 30th, significant economic data releases are anticipated from both Europe and the United States. Germany is set to publish its Preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI) month-over-month figures, offering insights into the country's inflation trends. Simultaneously, the United States will release its Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence report and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), providing valuable indicators of consumer sentiment and labor market conditions. Additionally, the Eurozone will release its GDP Growth Rate quarter-over-quarter (q/q) and year-over-year (y/y), which will have a medium impact on the market. These reports are expected to influence market movements and economic outlooks on both sides of the Atlantic.

EUR – Eurozone GDP Growth Rate q/q (Medium Impact)

Eurostat's quarterly release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures offers a critical snapshot of the Eurozone's economic health by measuring the total value of all goods and services produced within the region. This indicator, among the most vital for assessing economic performance, compares the economic activity of the reference quarter to that of the previous quarter (QoQ). A rise in the GDP reading is typically seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), signaling economic growth, while a decline is interpreted as bearish, indicating economic contraction.

In the first quarter of 2024, the Euro Area's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.3% compared to the previous quarter, according to Eurostat. This growth rate, while modest, falls below the long-term average of 0.37% recorded from 1995 to 2024. Historically, the Eurozone experienced its highest GDP growth rate of 11.70% in the third quarter of 2020, followed by a record low of -11.10% in the second quarter of 2020, reflecting the significant economic volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate is forecasted to increase by 0.3%, which is the same as the previous quarter's growth rate of 0.3%.

EUR – Eurozone GDP Growth Rate y/y (Medium Impact)

Eurostat's latest quarterly release of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the Eurozone reveals critical insights into the region's economic health. The GDP, a comprehensive measure of the total value of all goods and services produced, is closely monitored as one of the most significant economic indicators. The year-over-year (YoY) GDP growth rate, which compares economic activity in the reference quarter with the same quarter from the previous year, serves as a key barometer for economic performance. An increase in this rate generally signals a bullish outlook for the Euro (EUR), while a lower reading is typically viewed as bearish. This data, therefore, plays a crucial role in shaping market expectations and economic strategies across the Eurozone.

In the first quarter of 2024, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the Euro Area expanded by 0.4% compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Historically, the GDP annual growth rate in the Euro Area averaged 1.59% from 1995 to 2024. This period saw a peak growth rate of 14.90% in the second quarter of 2021, while the lowest recorded rate was -14.10% in the second quarter of 2020.

The year-over-year GDP growth rate is projected to be 0.6%, up from the previous rate of 0.4%.

The upcoming GDP growth rates, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, are scheduled for release on Tuesday at 9:00 AM GMT.

EUR - German Prelim CPI m/m (High Impact)

The German Preliminary CPI m/m measures the change in consumer prices for goods and services. A higher-than-forecasted CPI is typically beneficial for the currency, as consumer prices constitute the bulk of overall inflation. Inflation is critical for currency valuation because rising prices often lead the central bank to increase interest rates to manage inflation.

In June 2024, Germany's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-over-month, mirroring May's increase and falling slightly below the forecasted 0.2%, according to preliminary estimates from the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis). The annual CPI inflation rate decreased to 2.2% in June from 2.4% in May, which was also below the forecast of 2.3%. This reduction was attributed to a decline in goods inflation (0.8% vs. 1%) and a notable drop in energy costs (-2.1% vs. -1.1%), despite a faster increase in food prices (1.1% vs. 0.6%). Services inflation remained steady at 3.9%, while core inflation, excluding food and energy, eased to 2.9%, the lowest since February 2022, down from 3% in the previous two months. On a monthly basis, the CPI edged up by 0.1%, consistent with May's increase and below the forecasted 0.2%. The EU-harmonised CPI annual rate declined to 2.5% from 2.8%, below the forecasted 2.6%, while the monthly rate rose by 0.2%, as expected.

The forecast for the German Preliminary CPI month-over-month is 0.3%, up from the previous 0.1%.

The German Preliminary CPI month-over-month is set to be released on Tuesday at 12:00 PM GMT.

USD - CB Consumer Confidence (High Impact)

The CB Consumer Confidence Measures reflect the level of a composite index based on surveyed households. The usual effect is that if the 'Actual' measure is greater than the 'Forecast,' it is positive for the currency. Traders care because financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes a majority of overall economic activity. This measure is derived from a survey of approximately 3,000 households, asking respondents to evaluate the current and future economic conditions, including labor availability, business conditions, and the overall economic situation.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dipped to 100.4 in June from 101.3 in May, indicating a slight decline in consumer confidence. While the Present Situation Index saw a marginal increase to 141.5 from 140.8, reflecting improved labor market conditions, the Expectations Index fell to 73.0 from 74.9, remaining below the recession-indicating threshold of 80 for the fifth consecutive month. Consumers aged 35-54 showed a decline in confidence, whereas those under 35 and over 55 experienced an increase. Despite a slight reduction in inflation expectations and mixed sentiments regarding future business and labor conditions, the overall confidence remains fragile, with concerns about family finances and potential recession impacts persisting. Consumers were more optimistic about the stock market but less so about future income and business prospects. Travel plans increased, though still below pre-pandemic levels.

The forecast for CB Consumer Confidence is projected at 99.8, a decrease from the prior figure of 100.4.

The upcoming CB Consumer Confidence report will be released on Tuesday at 2:00 PM GMT.

USD - JOLTS Job Openings (High Impact)

The JOLTS Job Openings report measures the number of job openings during the reported month, excluding the farming industry; an 'Actual' figure greater than the 'Forecast' is positive for the currency because job creation is a crucial leading indicator of consumer spending, which constitutes a significant portion of overall economic activity.

In May 2024, the number of job openings in the U.S. rose by 221,000 to 8.140 million, surpassing the market consensus of 7.91 million, following a downwardly revised 7.919 million in April, the lowest in three years. Job openings increased notably in state and local government (excluding education), durable goods manufacturing, and the federal government, while they decreased in accommodation and food services and private educational services. Regionally, job openings grew in the Midwest, West, and Northeast but declined in the South. Despite these sectoral and regional shifts, the overall job openings rate remained at 4.9%. Hiring and separations held steady at 5.8 million and 5.4 million, respectively, with quits stable at 3.5 million and layoffs consistent at 1.7 million. April revisions indicated a slight contraction in labor market activity.

The JOLTS Job Openings forecast projects an increase to 8.05 million, down from the previous figure of 8.14 million.

The upcoming JOLTS Job Openings report is scheduled for release on Tuesday at 2:00 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jul 30, 2024

31st July 2024

Wednesday

On Wednesday, global markets will closely monitor a range of economic reports, including Australia's CPI and retail sales, China's PMI data, Japan's Policy Rate and consumer confidence, Eurozone Core and CPI Flash Estimates, and the U.S. releases such as the ADP Employment Change, Employment Cost Index, Pending Home Sales, Chicago PMI, and Federal Funds Rate decision, along with a press conference by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Canada will also report its monthly GDP figures.

AUD - CPI q/q (High Impact)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers on a quarterly basis. An actual CPI reading greater than the forecasted figure is generally positive for a currency because it indicates higher inflation, which may prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to contain inflation. Since consumer prices are a significant component of overall inflation, this relationship is crucial for currency valuation. The CPI is derived by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing these prices to those from previous samples.

In a report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), it was revealed that Australia's Consumer Price Index (CPI) experienced a significant increase, rising by 1.0% in the first quarter of 2024. This marked an uptick from the previous quarter's 0.6% growth and surpassed market expectations, which had forecasted a 0.8% rise. The data highlighted a sharper acceleration in consumer prices than anticipated, reflecting growing inflationary pressures within the economy.

The forecast for the CPI quarter-on-quarter is showing no change, remaining at the same 1.0% outcome as before.

AUD - CPI y/y (High Impact)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) Year-over-Year measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. When the actual CPI figure exceeds the forecasted value, it is generally advantageous for the currency. This is because consumer prices significantly impact overall inflation, which in turn affects currency valuation. Rising inflation typically prompts the central bank to raise interest rates to manage inflationary pressures. The CPI is calculated by sampling the average prices of a range of goods and services and comparing these to prices from a previous period.

In May, the monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicator rose by 4.0% annually, up from April's 3.6%. Excluding volatile items like automotive fuel, fruit, vegetables, and holiday travel, the CPI also showed a 4.0% increase, slightly down from 4.1% in April. New dwelling prices maintained a steady annual growth of 4.9% for the tenth consecutive month, reflecting ongoing higher costs for labor and materials. Rental prices saw a slight decrease to 7.4% from April's 7.5%, while electricity prices surged by 6.5%, influenced by the phasing out of Energy Bill Relief Fund rebates. Without these rebates, electricity prices would have soared by 14.5% over the year. Food and non-alcoholic beverages experienced a moderated rise of 3.3%, down from 3.8% in April, with fruit and vegetable prices notably increasing by 4.4%. Meanwhile, meat and seafood prices declined by 0.6%. Automotive fuel prices rose significantly by 9.3%, driven by higher wholesale prices earlier in the year, despite a 5.1% monthly drop in May. Insurance prices, while still high, eased slightly to a 14.0% annual rise, down from 16.5% in April. Holiday travel and accommodation prices showed a 2.9% annual increase, reversing a previous decline, with international travel being the primary driver, though monthly figures fell by 2.7% due to decreased post-school holiday demand.

The projected year-over-year Consumer Price Index is anticipated to be 3.8%, a decrease from the prior rate of 4.0%.

AUD - Trimmed Mean CPI q/q (High Impact)

The Trimmed Mean CPI q/q measures changes in consumer prices, excluding the most volatile 30% of items. A higher-than-expected actual value is positive for the currency, as consumer prices significantly influence overall inflation. Inflation affects currency valuation because rising prices often lead the central bank to raise interest rates to manage inflation.

Australia's trimmed mean Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a stronger-than-expected increase in the first quarter of 2024, rising by 1.0% from the previous quarter. This acceleration surpasses both the market forecasts and the 0.8% rise seen in the final quarter of 2023. Historically, the trimmed mean CPI, which excludes volatile price movements to provide a clearer measure of underlying inflation trends, has averaged 0.68% since its inception in 2002. The first quarter's performance is notably higher than this long-term average, and is closer to the record high of 1.80% witnessed in the third quarter of 2022. This recent uptick suggests a persistent underlying inflationary pressure within the Australian economy, potentially impacting future monetary policy decisions.

The forecast for the Trimmed Mean CPI on a quarter-over-quarter basis remains unchanged at 1.0%, consistent with the previous outcome.

The CPI data, including quarter-over-quarter, year-over-year, and Trimmed Mean CPI quarter-over-quarter, is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 1:30 AM GMT.

AUD - Retail Sales m/m (Medium Impact)

The month-over-month Retail Sales measure tracks changes in the total value of retail sales. When actual results surpass forecasts, it typically strengthens the currency, as this indicator reflects consumer spending, a major driver of overall economic activity. Traders closely monitor this data because it provides crucial insights into the health of consumer spending, which significantly impacts economic performance and market sentiment.

In May 2024, Australia's retail sector witnessed a significant uptick, with sales rising by 0.6% month-on-month, according to preliminary data. This growth, which exceeded expectations of a 0.2% increase, marks a robust continuation from April's modest 0.1% rise and represents the fastest growth since January. The increase in sales was largely driven by early end-of-financial-year promotions and sales events, enticing consumers across various sectors. Notably, household goods retailing surged by 1.1%, compared to 0.7% in April, and there was a strong recovery in the clothing, footwear, and personal accessory sector, which jumped by 1.6% after a previous decline of 0.8%. Food retailing also improved significantly, posting a 0.7% increase following a 0.5% contraction in April. However, other areas of retail experienced slowdowns, with 'other retailing' growing only by 0.2%, down from 1.7%, and sales in cafes, restaurants, and takeaway food services slightly declining by 0.1%. Regionally, Victoria, Western Australia, and Tasmania led with increases of 1.2%, 1.3%, and 0.7% respectively, while New South Wales and South Australia saw slight declines in retail sales.

The forecast for month-over-month Retail Sales stands at 0.3%, down from the previous outcome of 0.6%.

The next month-over-month Retail Sales report is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 1:30 AM GMT.

CNY - Manufacturing PMI (High Impact)

The Manufacturing PMI, based on surveys of 3,000 purchasing managers, measures industry conditions such as employment, production, and new orders. An 'Actual' figure higher than the 'Forecast' benefits the currency, with values above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. This measure significantly impacts currency markets, especially if released before the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, due to China's global economic influence. Traders use this index as a leading economic indicator since purchasing managers have the most current insights into business conditions.

China's manufacturing activity contracted for the second consecutive month in June, with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) purchasing managers' index (PMI) remaining at 49.5, unchanged from May and below the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction. This figure aligns with the median forecast in a Reuters poll. Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit, noted that actual industrial activity might be stronger than the PMI data suggests due to unrecorded export momentum. However, inadequate external and domestic demand continues to hinder a recovery in producer prices. Despite a sub-index of production being above 50, other critical indexes, including new orders, raw material stocks, employment, supplier delivery times, and new export orders, were all in contractionary territory. Analysts expect the Chinese government to roll out more policy support measures, with fiscal policy likely taking the lead due to limited room for monetary easing amidst currency pressures. High local-government debt and deflationary pressure further challenge recovery prospects, tempering expectations among investors and factory owners.

The forecast for the Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.4, compared to the previous outcome of 49.5.

CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI (Medium Impact)

The Non-Manufacturing PMI measures the level of a diffusion index derived from a survey of approximately 1,200 purchasing managers in the services sector. An 'Actual' result greater than the 'Forecast' is generally favorable for the currency. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while a reading below 50.0 signals contraction. Chinese data, due to China's significant impact on the global economy and investor sentiment, can notably influence currency markets. Since April 2012, the series has been reported on a seasonally adjusted basis. Traders monitor this indicator closely as it provides early insights into economic health through the purchasing managers' assessments of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

China's non-manufacturing sector showed signs of slowing in June as the non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropped to 50.5, down from 51.1 in May, marking the lowest reading since December. The decline was driven by a reduction in both services and construction activities, with the services PMI falling to 50.2, a five-month low, and the construction PMI slipping to 52.3, the weakest since July of the previous year. Analysts anticipate that the Chinese government will introduce additional policy support measures to stimulate domestic consumption and counteract the economic slowdown, although high local-government debt and deflationary pressures present significant challenges.

The forecast for the Non-Manufacturing PMI stands at 50.2, compared to the previous outcome of 50.5.

The upcoming Manufacturing & Non-Manufacturing PMI will be released on Wednesday at 1:30 AM GMT.

JPY - BOJ Policy Rate (High Impact)

The BOJ Policy Rate involves the interest rate applied to excess current account balances held at the Bank of Japan. When the actual rate exceeds the forecast, it is beneficial for the currency. Traders closely monitor short-term interest rates as they are vital for currency valuation, using other indicators mainly to anticipate future rate changes.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at around 0% to 0.1% during its June meeting, following the first rate hike since 2007 in March, which ended eight years of negative rates. The BoJ, considering reducing its monthly JPY 6 trillion bond purchases, passed the motion with an 8-1 majority, with board member Nakamura Toyoaki dissenting. This move aims to allow long-term rates to move more freely, with a detailed plan expected in July. Japan's economy has shown moderate recovery, bolstered by resilient private consumption and improving corporate profits, despite flat exports and public investment. The year-on-year inflation rate has been between 2% and 2.5%, with underlying CPI expected to rise gradually. The BoJ noted that Japan's economy is likely to continue growing above its potential growth rate, although uncertainties remain regarding global economic activity, commodity prices, and domestic wage- and price-setting behaviors.

The forecast for the BOJ policy rate indicates no changes, remaining the same as the previous outcome of 0.1%.

The BOJ policy rate decision is set to be released on Wednesday at 4:00 AM GMT.

JPY - Consumer Confidence (Medium Impact)

Consumer Confidence measures the level of a composite index based on surveys of households (excluding single-person homes), where a result that exceeds forecasts is considered favorable for the currency. Traders closely monitor this indicator because financial confidence often predicts consumer spending trends, which significantly impact overall economic activity. The index is derived from a survey of approximately 5,000 households, asking respondents to evaluate economic conditions, including livelihood, income growth, employment, and the climate for major purchases.

In June 2024, Japan's Consumer Confidence Index slightly improved to 36.4, up from May’s six-month low of 36.2, though it fell just short of market forecasts of 36.5, according to a Cabinet Office report. The rise was driven by better sentiment towards income growth, which increased to 40.6 from 39.9 the previous month, and a greater willingness to purchase durable goods, which rose to 29.6 from 29.0. However, confidence in employment and overall livelihood declined, with the employment index falling to 41.7 from 42.0 and the livelihood index decreasing to 33.8 from 33.9. Additionally, 93.8% of respondents anticipated higher prices in the coming year, up from 93.5% in May, while only 2.8% expected prices to remain steady and 1.8% anticipated a decline.

The forecast for Consumer Confidence stands at 36.5, compared to the previous outcome of 36.4.

The next Consumer Confidence report is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 5:00 AM GMT.

EUR – Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y (High Impact)

The Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y tracks changes in the prices of goods and services, excluding food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. If the actual data exceeds forecasts, it is typically favorable for the currency. Traders closely monitor this measure because it reflects underlying inflation trends. Rising consumer prices can lead central banks to raise interest rates to combat inflation, which in turn can impact currency valuation.

In June 2024, the Euro Area saw a steady performance in core inflation, which remained unchanged at 2.9% year-over-year, defying market expectations of a slight decrease to 2.8%. This core CPI flash estimate, which excludes volatile components such as energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco, highlights underlying price pressures within the economy. This stability occurs despite variations in broader inflationary trends, where general inflation has slightly decreased to 2.5%, aligning with market forecasts. Notable was the consistent inflation rate for services, holding firm at 4.1%, and non-energy industrial goods, which maintained a 0.7% rise. This core inflation data is particularly significant as it suggests persistent price stickiness in sectors less affected by external volatile factors, indicating a potential ongoing challenge for monetary policy makers aiming to balance growth and price stability in the region.

The forecast for the Core CPI Flash Estimate on a year-over-year basis is currently at 2.8%, compared to the previous outcome of 2.9%.

EUR – Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y (High Impact)

The CPI Flash Estimate (y/y) measures the annual change in consumer prices for goods and services. If the actual CPI figure exceeds forecasts, it is typically seen as favorable for the currency. Traders focus on this indicator because rising consumer prices can lead to higher inflation, which often prompts central banks to raise interest rates to manage inflation. Consequently, higher interest rates can strengthen the currency, making this data crucial for currency valuation.

In June 2024, the Euro Area's annual inflation rate decreased slightly to 2.5%, meeting market expectations and showing a modest decline from 2.6% in May, according to preliminary estimates. This deceleration was evident across various sectors, with notable slowdowns in food, alcohol, and tobacco at 2.5%, and energy at 0.2%. While inflation for non-energy industrial goods remained steady at 0.7%, services continued to see higher inflation at 4.1%. Monthly CPI maintained a 0.2% rise. Among key economies, inflation rates decreased in Germany, France, Spain, and Ireland, but increased in Italy and the Netherlands, indicating a mixed but generally stabilizing price landscape across the region.

The latest forecast for the Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate on a year-over-year basis suggests an increase of 2.5%, which is unchanged from the previous outcome of 2.5%.

The upcoming Core CPI Flash Estimate and CPI Flash Estimate, both year-over-year, are set to be released on Wednesday at 9:00 AM GMT.

USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (High Impact)

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change measures the estimated increase or decrease in employment numbers from the previous month, excluding jobs in agriculture and government sectors. A higher 'Actual' figure compared to the 'Forecast' is typically positive for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this data because job creation is a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives a large portion of economic activity. The estimate is derived from ADP's analysis of payroll data from over 25 million workers.

In June, the U.S. private sector added 150,000 jobs, falling short of the anticipated 160,000, according to ADP. This increase was less than the revised total of 157,000 for May and marked the lowest monthly gain since January. The bulk of these jobs came from the leisure and hospitality sector, which contributed 63,000 positions, making it the top performer across all categories tracked by ADP. Other sectors, such as construction and professional services, also saw gains, while natural resources, mining, and manufacturing experienced job losses. Wage growth decelerated to 4.9% year-over-year for existing employees, the lowest since August 2021, while job switchers enjoyed a 7.7% increase. The majority of new jobs were in companies with 50-499 employees, particularly concentrated in the Southern U.S. This ADP report, which often differs from the Bureau of Labor Statistics' more comprehensive data, precedes the Labor Department’s expected announcement of 200,000 new jobs for the same period.

The latest forecast for the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change predicts an increase to 147,000, a decrease from the previous figure of 150,000.

The upcoming ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is set to be released on Wednesday at 12:15 PM GMT.

CAD - GDP m/m (High Impact)

The GDP month-over-month (m/m) measures reflect the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. An 'Actual' value that exceeds the 'Forecast' is generally seen as favorable for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator because it is the broadest measure of economic activity and serves as the primary gauge of the overall health of the economy.

Canada's real GDP grew by 0.3% in April 2024, matching initial estimates, according to StatCan. This increase followed flat growth in March, with notable gains in wholesale trade, mining, quarrying, manufacturing, and oil and gas extraction. The arts, entertainment, and recreation sectors also saw a boost, supported by the NHL playoffs featuring four Canadian teams. The Bank of Canada is monitoring these GDP results alongside inflation and job market data to determine future interest rate changes, following a recent 25-basis-point cut. Preliminary expectations for May 2024 predict a GDP growth of 0.1%, driven by increases in manufacturing, real estate, rental and leasing, and finance and insurance, though tempered by declines in retail and wholesale trade. Goods-producing industries rose by 0.3% in April, led by manufacturing (+0.4%), agriculture, forestry and fishing (+0.6%), and mining, quarrying, oil and gas extraction (+0.6%), despite drops in utilities (-0.2%) and construction (-0.4%). Service-producing industries also grew by 0.3%, driven by wholesale trade (+2%) and accommodation and food services (+1.2%).

The forecast for the month-over-month GDP growth is 0.1%, down from the previous outcome of 0.3%.

The upcoming month-over-month GDP report is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - Employment Cost Index q/q (High Impact)

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) measures the change in the price businesses and the government pay for civilian labor, with a higher-than-forecast ECI generally being favorable for the currency because it signals potential consumer inflation, as increased labor costs are often passed on to consumers.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that compensation costs for civilian workers rose by 1.2% in the three-month period ending in March 2024, with wages and salaries increasing by 1.1% and benefit costs by 1.1% since December 2023. Over the 12-month period, ending in March 2024, compensation costs for civilian workers surged by 4.2%, with wages and salaries increasing by 4.4% and benefit costs by 3.7%. In the private industry sector, compensation costs rose by 4.1% over the year, while for union workers, the increase was higher at 5.3%, compared to 3.9% for nonunion workers. State and local government workers saw compensation costs rise by 4.8% over the 12-month period ending in March 2024. Additionally, inflation-adjusted compensation costs for private industry workers increased by 0.6% over the same period.

The forecast for the Employment Cost Index quarter-over-quarter is 1.0%, down from the previous outcome of 1.2%.

The Employment Cost Index quarter-over-quarter is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - Chicago PMI (Medium Impact)

The Chicago PMI, derived from a survey of approximately 200 purchasing managers in the region, measures the level of economic activity in the manufacturing sector through a diffusion index. A reading above the forecasted level typically benefits the currency, as it signals stronger-than-expected economic conditions. Traders closely follow this indicator because it offers a timely glimpse into the economic climate, with purchasing managers' assessments providing crucial insights into business sentiment and market trends.

The Chicago Business Barometer, commonly known as the Chicago PMI, surged to 47.4 in June 2024, up from a four-year low of 35.9 in May. Despite this notable increase and marking the highest level since November, the index remains in contraction territory for the seventh consecutive month, indicating ongoing challenges in the business environment.

The forecast for the Chicago PMI is 44.8, down from the previous outcome of 47.4.

The Chicago PMI is set to be released on Wednesday at 1:45 PM GMT.

USD - Pending Home Sales m/m (High Impact)

The Pending Home Sales measure tracks the change in the number of homes under contract but not yet closed, excluding new construction, with a higher-than-forecast result generally being positive for the currency because it indicates economic health through the wide-reaching ripple effects of home sales, such as renovations, mortgage transactions, and brokerage fees.

In May, pending home sales in the U.S. dropped by 2.1% according to the National Association of REALTORS (NAR), with the Midwest and South experiencing declines while the Northeast and West saw gains. The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) fell to 70.8, marking a 6.6% year-over-year decrease. Despite rising inventory and lower demand suggesting a potential easing in home price appreciation, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun predicts that more inventory in a job-creating economy will eventually boost home buying, especially when mortgage rates decrease. NAR forecasts mortgage rates will stay above 6% in 2024 and 2025, with existing-home sales rising to 4.26 million in 2024 and 4.92 million in 2025. The median existing-home price is expected to hit a record high of $405,300 in 2024 and $412,000 in 2025. Regionally, the Northeast's PHSI rose 1.1% month-over-month but dropped 2.3% year-over-year, while the Midwest's index fell 0.4% from April and 5.6% from the previous year. The South saw a 5.5% monthly decrease and a 10.4% annual decline, whereas the West's index increased by 1.4% from April but decreased by 2.1% from May 2023.

The forecast for Pending Home Sales month-over-month is 1.4%, up from the previous decline of -2.1%.

The Pending Home Sales report will be released on Wednesday at 2:00 PM GMT.

USD - Federal Funds Rate (High Impact)

The Federal Funds Rate, which is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to one another overnight, is crucial for currency valuation because an actual rate higher than the forecast is typically favorable for the currency; traders closely monitor this rate as short-term interest rates are the key determinant in currency value, with forecasts and other indicators mainly serving to predict future rate changes, and the rate itself is determined by the votes of FOMC members, which are detailed in the FOMC statement.

The Federal Reserve decided to maintain its federal funds rate in the range of 5.25%-5.50% for the seventh consecutive meeting in June 2024, emphasizing a cautious approach amidst persistent but slightly easing inflation rates. The policymakers revised their rate cut expectations to one for this year, down from three forecasted in March, and signaled four potential reductions in 2025. Despite adjustments in the long-run interest rate outlook from 2.6% to 2.8%, reflecting a higher-for-longer rate scenario, and slight upward revisions in inflation forecasts, the Fed remains committed to its 2% inflation target. Economic projections remain stable with GDP growth expected at 2.1% for 2024 and inflation forecasts adjusted upward for the next two years. The unemployment rate is projected to remain low, underscoring a solid economic performance. The Fed reiterated its readiness to adjust policies if necessary but indicated that rate reductions would not be considered until there is greater confidence that inflation is consistently moving towards the target.

The forecast for the Federal Funds Rate indicates that it will remain unchanged at 5.50%, the same as the previous outcome.

The next Federal Funds Rate announcement is scheduled for Wednesday at 6:00 PM GMT.

USD - FOMC Press Conference (High Impact)

The Federal Reserve Chair's Press Conference, part of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings, is a key event for traders and investors, held eight times a year. This briefing is crucial as it provides detailed insights into the Fed's recent interest rate decisions, the economic factors influencing these choices, and the outlook for future monetary policy. Traders closely follow these updates, as a more hawkish stance than anticipated can positively impact the currency. The press conference, also known as the Chair's Press Briefing, serves as the Fed's primary method of communicating its monetary policy stance and economic expectations, making it a pivotal moment for market participants.

The FOMC Press Conference is scheduled to be released on Wednesday at 6:30 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Jul 31, 2024

1st of August 2024

Thursday

Global markets are set for significant movement with the release of various economic reports of both high and medium impact. In Asia, Japan will announce its Final Manufacturing PMI, followed by China, which will release its Caixin Manufacturing PMI figures. In the UK, the focus will shift to the announcement of the Official Bank Rate. Meanwhile, in the United States, key reports including unemployment claims and the ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released, providing crucial insights into the labor market and manufacturing sector.

JPY - Final Manufacturing PMI (Medium Impact)

The Final Manufacturing PMI, derived from a survey of around 400 purchasing managers, indicates economic health with a reading above 50.0 signaling expansion and below 50.0 signaling contraction. Traders watch this indicator closely, as it reflects current business conditions and impacts currency if the ‘Actual’ exceeds the ‘Forecast.’ The report is released in two versions: Flash, which has the most immediate impact, and Final.

In July 2024, Japan’s au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly dropped to 49.2 from 50.0 in June, falling short of the anticipated 50.5 and signaling the first decline in factory activity since April. The manufacturing sector experienced its fifth contraction of the year due to reduced output, a sharp fall in new orders, and ongoing decreases in foreign sales and purchasing levels. Employment continued to rise, and backlogs of work declined for the fourth month in a row, highlighting spare capacity in the sector. Additionally, delivery times lengthened, input cost inflation surged to its highest since April 2023, while output cost inflation eased to a four-month low. Despite a weakening in business confidence, it remained positive.

The forecast for the Final Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.2, compared to the previous outcome of 50.0.

The Final Manufacturing PMI is scheduled for release on Friday at 12:30 AM GMT.

CNY - Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Medium Impact)

The Caixin Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index derived from a survey of approximately 500 purchasing managers, assessing business conditions such as employment, production, and new orders; a reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion while below suggests contraction, with variations between the Flash and Final reports prior to September 2015 potentially causing historical data inconsistencies. This PMI is a key leading economic indicator as it reflects the current business climate and purchasing managers' insights.

In June 2024, the Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 from 51.7 in May, surpassing market expectations of 51.2 and reaching its highest level since May 2021. This marked the eighth consecutive month of increased factory activity, with output growth peaking at a two-year high and new orders expanding for the eleventh month. Purchasing levels surged the most in over three years, leading to higher stockpiles. While foreign sales continued to grow, the pace of expansion slowed to its lowest in six months. Employment declines moderated, with workforce expansions roughly balancing reductions, and backlogs of work increased for the fourth month. Delivery times lengthened for the first time since February due to material shortages and constraints. On the inflation front, input prices climbed the most in two years, and selling prices rose for the first time in six months. However, sentiment fell to a more than four-and-a-half-year low due to heightened competition and uncertain market conditions.

The forecast for the Caixin Manufacturing PMI suggests a reading of 51.4, down slightly from the previous figure of 51.8.

The upcoming Caixin Manufacturing PMI report is scheduled for release on Friday at 1:45 AM GMT.

GBP - Official Bank Rate (High Impact)

The Official Bank Rate, set by the Bank of England through a vote by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) whose individual votes are published two weeks later, represents the interest rate at which the BOE lends to financial institutions overnight; it is crucial for currency valuation because a rate higher than forecast is favorable for the currency, and traders prioritize short-term interest rates over other indicators to predict future rate changes.

The Bank of England (BoE) decided to keep its interest rate at a 16-year high of 5.25% during its June meeting, despite inflation reaching the central bank's 2% target. Seven members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hold, while two had favored a 25 basis point cut. The MPC noted easing short-term inflation expectations and wage growth but highlighted uncertainties in labor market data. Market speculation had suggested a nearly 50% chance of an August rate cut, reflecting a "finely balanced" decision by the BoE. The pound fell 0.2% against the dollar following the announcement.

The forecast for the Official Bank Rate is projected at 5.0%, down from the previous rate of 5.25%.

The upcoming Official Bank Rate is scheduled to be released on Thursday at 11:00 AM GMT.

USD – Unemployment Claims (High Impact)

Unemployment claims track the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time each week. When the actual figure is lower than the forecast, it is considered positive for the currency. Traders pay attention to this metric because, while it is a lagging indicator, it provides valuable insights into economic health. Since consumer spending closely follows labor-market conditions, changes in unemployment claims can influence monetary policy decisions.

In the week ending July 20, the number of initial unemployment claims decreased by 10,000 to 235,000, following a revised figure of 245,000 for the prior week, according to the Labor Department. This marks the ninth consecutive week with claims exceeding 220,000, a threshold not breached in most of 2024. Despite this uptick, jobless claims remain at historically healthy levels, reflecting only modest increases in layoffs. The total number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits dropped to approximately 1.85 million for the week ending July 13, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week. Additionally, the four-week moving average of claims rose slightly to 235,250, highlighting a broader trend in the labor market that remains stable yet elevated.

The forecast for unemployment claims projects 236,000, an increase from the previous figure of 235,000.

The next unemployment claims report is scheduled for release on Thursday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI (High Impact)

The ISM Manufacturing PMI, also known as the Manufacturing ISM Report On Business, is a diffusion index based on a survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector, and it measures the level of business conditions such as employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories; a reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion and is favorable for currency if it surpasses forecasts, as it serves as a leading indicator of economic health due to the purchasing managers' up-to-date insights into their company's view of the economy.

In June 2024, U.S. manufacturing activity continued its downward trend, marking the third consecutive month of contraction with the Manufacturing PMI falling slightly to 48.5%, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The sector witnessed declines across several key indexes, including New Orders and Production, both showing contraction. Employment also dipped, indicating ongoing workforce reductions in the industry. Despite a decline in overall manufacturing performance, some industries like Chemical Products and Petroleum & Coal Products reported growth. Suppliers are responding faster than in previous months, suggesting some easing in supply chain constraints. However, the economic outlook remains cautious with investment in capital and inventory subdued, influenced by current monetary policy and broader economic conditions. The Prices Index indicated a slight increase in raw materials costs, although the rate of price increases is slowing. Overall, the data reflects ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector, with only sporadic signs of growth amidst general contraction.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI is projected at 48.8, up from the previous outcome of 48.5.

The upcoming ISM Manufacturing PMI report is scheduled for release on Thursday at 2:00 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 1, 2024

2nd August 2024

Friday

Switzerland is preparing to release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, which will show both month-over-month and year-over-year changes. This data is expected to provide important insights into the nation's inflation trends. Simultaneously, the United States will unveil key labor market statistics, including the month-over-month change in Average Hourly Earnings, Non-Farm Employment Change, and the Unemployment Rate. These updates are likely to offer crucial indications of economic health and employment conditions in both regions.

CHF - CPI m/m (High Impact)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, with its monthly release occurring approximately three days after the end of the month. This indicator is crucial for currency valuation, as a CPI reading that exceeds forecasts typically signals favorable conditions for the currency. Consumer prices are a significant component of overall inflation, which in turn influences central bank policies; rising inflation often prompts the central bank to increase interest rates to maintain price stability. CPI is derived by sampling and comparing the average prices of a variety of goods and services from one period to the next.

In Switzerland, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed no change in June 2024 compared to the previous month, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The CPI, a key indicator of inflation, reflected a year-over-year increase of 1.3%. This stability in consumer prices was the result of diverse price movements across different sectors. Noteworthy increases were observed in the cost of international package holidays, select vegetables, hotel stays, and private transportation rentals. However, these were balanced by significant declines in the prices of air transport, petrol, diesel, and clothing and footwear, with the latter influenced by seasonal sales. This pattern underscores the dynamic nature of market forces that continue to shape the cost of living in Switzerland.

The forecast for the month-over-month Consumer Price Index (CPI) is showing a decrease of -0.2%, a shift from the previous reading of 0.0%.

CHF – CPI y/y (Medium Impact)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the Swiss Federal Statistical Office, tracks changes in the prices of goods and services representative of Swiss household consumption. Serving as the primary gauge of inflation and shifts in purchasing behavior, the CPI's year-over-year reading compares current prices to those from the same month the previous year. Typically, a higher CPI reading is considered positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF), while a lower reading is viewed as negative.

In June 2024, Switzerland's annual inflation rate eased to 1.3%, down from May’s four-month high of 1.4% and below market expectations. The decrease was driven by lower prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing, and household goods. Prices also moderated for restaurants, hotels, and other goods and services. However, inflation accelerated for alcoholic beverages, tobacco, communications, and recreation. The Consumer Price Index remained flat month-over-month, following a 0.3% increase in May. Additionally, the core inflation rate, excluding volatile items, fell slightly to 1.1% from 1.2% in the previous month.

The forecast for the CPI year-over-year stands at 1.3%, matching the previous outcome of 1.3%.

The monthly and annual CPI figures are scheduled for release this Friday at 6:30 AM GMT.

USD - Average Hourly Earnings m/m (High Impact)

The Average Hourly Earnings m/m indicator measures the change in wages that businesses pay for labor, excluding the farming sector. If the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it generally benefits the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator because it acts as a leading indicator of consumer inflation; when businesses face higher labor costs, these increased expenses are often passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.

In June, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a modest increase in average hourly earnings of 0.3%, rising to $35.00, reflecting a 3.9% growth over the past year. This wage increase coincides with a significant gain in nonfarm payroll employment, which rose by 206,000 positions, largely driven by sectors such as government, health care, social assistance, and construction. Despite these job gains, the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1% with little change in the number of unemployed at 6.8 million. Additionally, employment adjustments included a decrease in retail trade while professional and business services saw minimal change. This overall economic picture showcases a steady labor market with continued wage growth across various sectors.

The forecast for Average Hourly Earnings m/m predicts no change from the previous outcome of 0.3%.

USD - Non-Farm Employment Change (High Impact)

The Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of employed individuals in the economy during the previous month, excluding those in the farming sector. This indicator is crucial for currency traders because a higher-than-expected 'actual' figure compared to the 'forecast' typically signals a positive economic outlook, leading to currency appreciation. Job creation is a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of overall economic activity. Thus, strong employment figures often suggest a robust economy and can influence currency values accordingly.

In June, the US saw an addition of 206,000 nonfarm payroll jobs, indicating steady job growth across various sectors. This increase aligns closely with the average monthly gain of 220,000 jobs over the past year. Significant employment gains were noted in government, health care, social assistance, and construction sectors. Government jobs rose by 70,000, surpassing the average monthly increase of 49,000, with notable rises in local and state government roles. The health care sector added 49,000 jobs, though this was slightly below its 12-month average. Social assistance roles increased by 34,000, primarily in individual and family services, while construction jobs grew by 27,000, both exceeding their respective averages. Conversely, retail trade and professional business services saw minimal changes, with a slight decrease in employment. Adjustments to previous months' data saw a downward revision for April and May, reducing earlier estimates by a combined total of 111,000 jobs. Overall, these figures reflect a resilient labor market, with an ongoing demand for workers across several key industries.

The forecast for Non-Farm Payrolls is set at 176,000, down from the previous outcome of 206,000.

USD - Unemployment Rate (High Impact)

The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment over the previous month. When the actual rate is lower than the forecasted rate, it is generally positive for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this figure because, despite being a lagging indicator, it reflects overall economic health and is closely linked to consumer spending. Additionally, the unemployment rate is crucial for shaping monetary policy, making it a key concern for policymakers and investors alike.

In the latest labor market update, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in June. This stability masks underlying dynamics, including a slight increase in unemployment among adult women and Asians, now at 3.7% and 4.1% respectively. While the jobless rates for other major worker groups, such as adult men, teenagers, Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics showed minimal changes. The total number of unemployed people slightly rose to 6.8 million, up from 6.0 million a year ago. Notably, the number of long-term unemployed individuals—those jobless for 27 weeks or more—increased by 166,000 to 1.5 million, accounting for 22.2% of all unemployed. Despite these figures, the labor force participation rate and employment-population ratio remained largely unchanged at 62.6% and 60.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, job gains were observed in government, health care, social assistance, and construction sectors, contributing to a total nonfarm payroll employment increase of 206,000 in June.

The forecast for the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at the same 4.1% as the previous outcome.

On Friday at 12:30 PM GMT, key economic indicators will be released, including the Average Hourly Earnings month-over-month, the Non-Farm Employment Change, & the Unemployment Rate.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 2, 2024

5th August 2024

Monday

On Monday, the financial markets are set for significant activity with a series of high and medium impact news announcements. The day will commence with China's release of its Caixin Services PMI, setting the tone for the global market. This will be followed by the Eurozone's Services PMI Final, providing further insight into the economic health of the region. Later in the day, attention will shift to the United States, where the US Final Services PMI and the ISM Services PMI will be announced, both of which are critical indicators of the country's economic performance. These announcements are expected to influence market movements and investor sentiment throughout the day.

CNY - Caixin Services PMI (Medium Impact)

The Caixin Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released monthly by Caixin Insight Group and S&P Global, is a key indicator of business activity in China’s services sector. Derived from surveys of senior executives at approximately 400 private and state-owned companies, it reflects changes in business conditions compared to the previous month. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. As a leading indicator, it provides insights into economic health and trends in GDP, industrial production, employment, and inflation, making it significant for traders as it can influence the value of the Renminbi (CNY).

In June 2024, China's service economy continued its expansion, driven by rising new and export business, though at a slower pace compared to May. The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index fell to 51.2 from 54.0, marking the slowest growth since October 2023 but still extending the expansion streak to 18 months. Despite improved demand and increased tourism boosting new business and exports, optimism waned to its lowest since March 2020, partly due to competition and softer economic conditions. Employment levels dipped slightly, leading to the fastest backlog accumulation in over two years. Input cost inflation persisted but at a reduced rate, resulting in marginal increases in service charges.

TL;DR

Caixin Index dropped to 51.2 in June from 54.0 in May, the slowest growth since October 2023 but still expanding for 18 months.
Business optimism fell to its lowest since March 2020 due to competition and weaker economic conditions.
Employment decreased slightly, leading to the fastest backlog accumulation in over two years.
Input cost inflation persisted but slowed, resulting in marginal service charge increases.
New and export business improved, with tourism boosting these gains.

The forecast for the Caixin Services PMI is anticipated to be 51.4, showing an increase from the previous reading of 51.2.

The upcoming Caixin Services PMI report will be released on Monday at 1:45 AM GMT.

EUR - Final Services PMI (Medium Impact)

The Final Services PMI, released monthly by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), measures the level of business activity in the Eurozone services sector based on a survey of about 2,000 purchasing managers. It is a diffusion index, with values above 50 indicating expansion and values below 50 indicating contraction. Higher-than-forecast readings are positive for the Euro. The index is a leading indicator of economic conditions, reflecting changes in employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories, and can predict trends in GDP, industrial production, employment, and inflation.

In July 2024, the Eurozone Services PMI fell to 51.9, down from 52.8 in June and below the expected 53, signaling the slowest growth in Eurozone services since March. Despite this, the sector has continued to expand for the sixth consecutive month, driven by increased new orders and reduced backlogs. However, growth in hiring has slowed to its weakest pace since January. Additionally, input price inflation has risen, and business sentiment has declined, suggesting a more cautious outlook for the year ahead.

TL;DR

Eurozone Services PMI fell to 51.9 in July from 52.8 in June, the slowest growth since March and below the expected 53.
Sector Expansion continued for the sixth month, driven by increased new orders and reduced backlogs.
Hiring Growth slowed to its weakest pace since January.
Input Price Inflation rose, and business sentiment declined, indicating a more cautious outlook for the year ahead.

The Final Services PMI is projected to stay at 51.9, matching the previous outcome of 51.9.

The upcoming Final Services PMI is set to be released on Monday at 8:00 AM GMT.

USD – Final Services PMI (Medium Impact)

The S&P Global US Services PMI, derived from responses of about 400 service sector companies, monitors variables such as sales, employment, and prices. A reading above 50 signals growth, while below 50 indicates decline. The key measure, the Services Business Activity Index, reflects changes in business activity from the previous month and parallels the Manufacturing Output Index. Traders value this index as it serves as a leading economic indicator, providing timely insights into market conditions and business sentiment.

The S&P Global Services PMI surged to 56 in July 2024, marking its highest level in nearly two and a half years, up from 55.3 in June and surpassing forecasts of 55, according to preliminary data. This increase reflects a sharp acceleration in new business, reaching its fastest growth in over a year. Despite this, the rate of job creation slowed from the previous month. Service providers reported the slowest rise in prices charged in almost four years, although their input costs climbed more rapidly. Optimism about future growth, however, has waned amid concerns over the upcoming Presidential Election and potential policy shifts. Additionally, businesses are apprehensive about the persistent high cost of living, which might influence inflation and interest rates.

TL;DR

Metric	July 2024	June 2024	Forecast	Notes
S&P Global Services PMI	56	55.3	55	Highest level in nearly 2.5 years
New Business Growth	Sharp acceleration	-	-	Fastest growth in over a year
Job Creation	Slowed	-	-	Rate of job creation slowed from previous month
Prices Charged	Slowest rise in almost 4 years	-	-	Slowest increase in nearly 4 years
Input Costs	Climbed more rapidly	-	-	Input costs increased faster
Future Growth Optimism	Waned	-	-	Concerns over Presidential Election and policy shifts
Cost of Living Concerns	Persistent	-	-	Potential impact on inflation and interest rates

The forecast for the Final Services PMI is projected to be 56.0, up from the previous figure of 55.3.

The Final Services PMI report is scheduled for release on Monday at 1:45 PM GMT.

USD - ISM Services PMI (High Impact)

The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is a monthly index based on surveys from approximately 300 purchasing and supply executives nationwide. It tracks changes in indicators such as Business Activity, New Orders, and Employment, with readings above 50% signaling expansion and below 50% indicating contraction. Given that service orders account for about 90% of the US economy, the report provides crucial insights into economic health and business sentiment, making it a key leading indicator for traders.

In June 2024, the Services PMI reported by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) revealed a contraction in the services sector, with a reading of 48.8 percent, down 5 percentage points from May's 53.8 percent. This marks the second contraction in three months and the third in the last 49 months. Significant drops were seen in the Business Activity Index, which fell to 49.6 percent from May's 61.2 percent, and the New Orders Index, which declined to 47.3 percent from 54.1 percent. The Employment Index also continued its downward trend, registering 46.1 percent. While the Prices Index decreased to 56.3 percent, indicating easing inflation, supply chain issues persisted, affecting delivery performance. Despite some growth in eight service industries, including Health Care and Construction, others like Retail Trade and Transportation saw declines. Respondents noted stable but high costs and ongoing supply chain challenges, contributing to an overall flat or lower business outlook.

TL;DR

In June 2024, the Services PMI fell to 48.8%, signaling a contraction in the services sector.
This is a 5 percentage point drop from May's 53.8%.
The Business Activity Index decreased to 49.6%, and the New Orders Index dropped to 47.3%.
The Employment Index continued its downward trend, reaching 46.1%.
The Prices Index decreased to 56.3%, indicating easing inflation.
Supply chain issues persisted, impacting delivery performance.
Some industries like Health Care and Construction saw growth.
Industries such as Retail Trade and Transportation experienced declines.
The overall business outlook is flat or lower, with stable but high costs and ongoing challenges.

The forecast for the ISM Services PMI is 51.3, an increase from the previous outcome of 48.8.

The Final Services PMI report is set to be unveiled on Monday at 2:00 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 5, 2024

6th August 2024

Tuesday

The financial world is set for a decisive day as Australia prepares to announce its Cash Rate, with a follow-up press conference that could influence global markets. Later, the UK's Construction PMI will provide key insights into the sector's performance, while the Eurozone will release its Retail Sales m/m figures, shedding light on consumer spending patterns. As the day progresses, New Zealand will unveil its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data, offering fresh perspectives on the labor market. These crucial updates are poised to impact trading strategies and market movements.

AUD – Cash Rate (High Impact)

In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia's Board sets the official cash rate, which is the interest rate on overnight loans between financial institutions. This rate is crucial as it influences the money market, reflecting the balance between the demand and supply for short-term funds. Traders closely monitor these interest rates because they are a key determinant of currency value, with many other economic indicators being used primarily to forecast future rate changes.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% and the interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances at 4.25%. Despite a significant decline in inflation from its 2022 peak, it remained above target, with the pace of reduction slowing. The latest data showed headline inflation at 3.6% and core inflation at 4.1%. Excess demand and high domestic cost pressures persisted, although wage growth had peaked. The economic outlook was uncertain, with weak GDP growth, rising unemployment, and persistent inflation posing risks. The RBA prioritized returning inflation to the 2-3% target, emphasizing the need for vigilance and data-driven decisions amid global and domestic economic uncertainties.

TL;DR

• RBA Cash Rate: Held at 4.35%.

• Interest on Exchange Settlement Balances: Held at 4.25%.

• Inflation: Headline at 3.6%, core at 4.1%.

• Economic Outlook: Uncertain with weak GDP growth and rising unemployment.

• RBA Focus: Returning inflation to 2-3% target.

The forecast for Australia's Cash Rate predicts it will remain unchanged at 4.35%, consistent with the previous rate.

The next interest rate decision is set to be announced on Tuesday at 4:30 AM GMT.

AUD - RBA Press Conference (Medium Impact)

The Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) press conferences are pivotal events for currency markets, often leading to significant fluctuations. A more hawkish tone from the RBA typically strengthens the Australian dollar, as traders keenly interpret the detailed explanations of recent interest rate decisions, economic conditions, and inflation. These conferences are highly anticipated, providing valuable insights into future monetary policy directions and shaping market expectations. Consequently, market participants meticulously analyze the RBA's statements to adjust their strategies in response to the central bank's outlook.

The RBA Press Conference is scheduled for Tuesday at 5:30 AM GMT.

GBP – Construction PMI (Medium Impact)

The Construction PMI, derived from a survey of approximately 150 purchasing managers in the construction sector, measures business conditions through a diffusion index. A reading above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, while a reading below suggests contraction. Traders closely watch this index because a figure exceeding forecasts is favorable for the currency, as it serves as a leading economic indicator. It reflects current business sentiment, with purchasing managers providing timely insights into employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories.

The UK construction sector continued to grow in the second quarter, though at a reduced pace, closing with a PMI of 52.2 in June, down from 54.7 in May. The slight deceleration in growth was due to a drop in housing activity and a slower increase in new orders, attributed partly to election-related uncertainty. Despite these challenges, employment in the sector grew robustly, the fastest since last August, and sub-contractor use expanded for the third consecutive month. Input cost inflation rose slightly, influenced by higher raw material costs, yet remained below average levels. Confidence in the sector remains positive, buoyed by expectations of decreasing interest rates, with a majority of firms anticipating an increase in activity over the next year.

TL;DR

Aspect	Details
PMI (June)	52.2
PMI (May)	54.7
Growth Pace	Reduced
Key Factors for Deceleration	Drop in housing activity, slower increase in new orders, election-related uncertainty
Employment Growth	Robust; fastest since last August
Sub-contractor Use	Expanded for the third consecutive month
Input Cost Inflation	Slight rise, influenced by higher raw material costs; below average levels
Sector Confidence	Positive, buoyed by expectations of decreasing interest rates
Activity Expectation	Majority of firms anticipate an increase over the next year

The forecast for the Construction PMI is indicating a rise to 52.7, compared to the previous outcome of 52.2.

The next Construction PMI release is scheduled for Tuesday at 8:30 AM GMT.

EUR – Eurozone Retail Sales m/m (Medium Impact)

In the Euro Area, retail sales track the total goods sold, with food, drinks, and tobacco having the largest share at 39.3%. Other significant categories include electrical goods and furniture (12%), computer equipment and books (11.4%), pharmaceutical goods (9.9%), textiles and clothing (9.2%), auto fuel (9.1%), non-food products (6%), and online sales (2.9%). Germany leads with the highest country share (25.9%), followed by France (21.7%), Italy (16.1%), and Spain (11.4%). Retail sales data is crucial for traders as it indicates consumer spending, a major component of economic activity, where a higher actual value than forecast is positive for the currency.

In May 2024, retail sales in the Euro Area experienced a modest increase of 0.1% month-over-month, recovering from a revised 0.2% decline in April but falling short of the anticipated 0.2% rise. The rebound was driven by a 0.7% increase in sales of food, drinks, and tobacco, following a 0.9% drop in the previous month, and a 0.4% rise in auto fuel sales, which had previously fallen by 0.7%. However, sales of non-food products saw a 0.2% decline, reversing the 0.5% gain observed in April. On an annual basis, retail sales grew by 0.3%, down from the 0.6% growth recorded in April.

TL;DR

May 2024 Retail Sales: Increased by 0.1% month-over-month.
April 2024 Revision: Revised to a 0.2% decline from the initial report.
Food, Drinks, and Tobacco Sales: Rose by 0.7% in May after a 0.9% drop in April.
Auto Fuel Sales: Increased by 0.4% in May following a 0.7% decrease in April.
Non-Food Products Sales: Declined by 0.2% in May, reversing a 0.5% gain in April.
Annual Change: Retail sales grew by 0.3% in May, down from a 0.6% growth in April.
Expectations vs. Actual: May’s increase fell short of the anticipated 0.2% rise.

The forecast for month-over-month retail sales is expected to be -0.1%, down from the previous figure of 0.1%.

The upcoming release of the month-over-month retail sales data is scheduled for Tuesday at 9:00 AM GMT.

NZD - Employment Change q/q (High Impact)

The quarterly Employment Change report reveals the shift in the number of employed individuals, a critical metric for economic analysis. When the actual employment figures exceed forecasts, it generally strengthens the currency, signaling positive economic growth. Traders closely monitor these figures because robust job creation often indicates increased consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of overall economic activity. As a leading indicator, strong employment numbers suggest a thriving economy, influencing market expectations and currency valuations.

In March 2024, New Zealand experienced a 0.2% decline in employment, a reversal from the 0.4% growth seen in the previous period, indicating a cooling in the labor market amid economic slowdown. Historically, employment changes in New Zealand have shown fluctuations, with a record high growth of 2.6% in Q2 2016 and a significant drop of 1.8% in Q1 2009. Despite these challenges, Westpac New Zealand had anticipated a modest 0.4% growth for the March quarter, consistent with the previous quarter's performance. However, the actual decline highlights a gap where the increase in jobs has not kept pace with the surge in workforce numbers driven by high migration, leading to a projected rise in unemployment from 4.0% to 4.2%. This mismatch suggests that while new jobs are being created, they are insufficient to accommodate the growing pool of job seekers, impacting the overall employment dynamics in the country.

TL;DR

March 2024 Employment Change: -0.2%
Previous Period Employment Change: +0.4%
Historical Record High Growth: +2.6% (Q2 2016)
Historical Significant Drop: -1.8% (Q1 2009)
Westpac's Anticipated Growth: +0.4%
Projected Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (up from 4.0%)
Reason for Unemployment Rise: Insufficient job creation to match growing workforce due to high migration

The forecast for the quarter-over-quarter Employment Change stands at -0.2%, compared to the previous outcome of -0.2%.

NZD - Unemployment Rate (High Impact)

The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment in the previous quarter. While it is often considered a lagging indicator, a lower-than-forecasted unemployment rate is generally positive for a currency. Traders pay close attention to this figure because it reflects overall economic health; a decrease in unemployment typically signals better labor-market conditions, which are closely linked to consumer spending and economic growth.

In New Zealand, the labor market showed signs of strain in the March 2024 quarter, with the unemployment rate climbing to 4.3% from 4.0% in the previous quarter, marking the highest level since early 2021. This increase exceeded market expectations, which had anticipated a rise to only 4.2%. Alongside this, the underutilisation rate, which measures the total unused labor capacity, worsened, reaching 11.2% from 10.7%. Additionally, the employment rate dipped to 68.4%, down from 69.0%, and the labor force participation rate fell slightly to 71.5% from 71.9%. The number of people not in the labor force also rose by 22,000 during the quarter, totaling an increase of 61,000 year-over-year. Despite these challenges, wage growth showed some resilience, with all salary and wage rates, including overtime, experiencing a year-on-year increase of 4.1%. Average weekly earnings for full-time equivalent employees climbed to $1,593, and average ordinary time hourly earnings reached $40.96.

TL;DR

Unemployment Rate: Increased to 4.3% from 4.0%, marking the highest level since early 2021, surpassing the expected 4.2%.
Underutilisation Rate: Rose to 11.2% from 10.7%.
Employment Rate: Declined to 68.4% from 69.0%.
Labor Force Participation Rate: Fell slightly to 71.5% from 71.9%.
Number Not in the Labor Force: Increased by 22,000 in the quarter and 61,000 year-on-year.
Wage Growth: Showed resilience with a year-on-year increase of 4.1%.
Average Weekly Earnings (Full-Time Equivalent): Rose to $1,593.
Average Ordinary Time Hourly Earnings: Reached $40.96.

The forecasted unemployment rate stands at 4.7%, up from the previous rate of 4.3%.

The quarterly Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports are scheduled for release on Tuesday at 10:45 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 6, 2024

7th August 2024

Wednesday

On August 7th, Canada will unveil its Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), offering a key glimpse into the country’s economic pulse.

CAD - Ivey PMI (Medium Impact)

The Ivey PMI Measures are diffusion indexes derived from a survey of around 175 purchasing managers across various sectors. These indexes gauge business conditions such as employment, production, and new orders, with values above 50 indicating industry expansion and below 50 indicating contraction. As a leading economic indicator, the Ivey PMI is valuable for traders because it reflects the most current business insights and market reactions. A higher-than-forecast PMI is typically positive for a currency.

In a robust show of economic resilience, the Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in Canada leaped to 62.5 in June 2024, a sharp rise from 52 in May and well above the anticipated 53, signaling strong economic growth for the eleventh consecutive month. This performance, the second highest in the current growth sequence, was primarily driven by significant improvements in the inventories index, which climbed to 52.7 from 49.1, and the supplier deliveries index, which saw a modest rise to 48.6 from 47.9. Despite these gains, the employment index witnessed a decline, dropping to 52.9 from 56.4, indicating some cooling in job growth. Additionally, the pace of price increases slightly eased, with the price index moderating to 62.3 from a five-month high of 63.5. The unadjusted PMI also saw a decrease, settling at 62.4 in June down from 59.1 the previous month, reflecting a nuanced yet positive economic landscape.

TL;DR

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in Canada: Rose to 62.5 in June 2024, up from 52 in May and exceeding the anticipated 53.
Economic Growth: Marked the eleventh consecutive month of strong economic growth and was the second highest in the current growth sequence.
Inventories Index: Increased to 52.7 from 49.1, indicating improved inventory levels.
Supplier Deliveries Index: Rose to 48.6 from 47.9, showing a slight improvement.
Employment Index: Declined to 52.9 from 56.4, reflecting a slowdown in job growth.
Price Index: Moderated to 62.3 from a five-month high of 63.5, with a slight easing in the pace of price increases.
Unadjusted PMI: Decreased to 62.4 in June from 59.1 the previous month, showing a nuanced but positive economic landscape.

The forecast for the Ivey PMI stands at 60.0, down from the previous result of 62.5.

The upcoming Ivey PMI release is scheduled for Wednesday at 2:00 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 7, 2024

8th August 2024

Thursday

In today's economic updates, all eyes are on Australia's Reserve Bank as Governor Michele Bullock is set to deliver an important speech shedding light on the nation's economic outlook. Meanwhile, New Zealand will reveal its latest quarterly Inflation Expectations, a key indicator of future price pressures that could influence market sentiment. Across the Pacific, the United States will release its weekly Unemployment Claims, offering fresh insights into the labor market's health and its implications for the broader economy.

AUD - RBA Gov Bullock Speaks (High Impact)

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is set to address the Annual Rotary Lecture in New South Wales, with audience questions anticipated. As the central bank's chief, Bullock holds significant sway over short-term interest rates and, consequently, the nation's currency value. Traders will closely analyze her remarks for potential hints about future monetary policy, as a more hawkish stance than expected could positively impact the currency. Her public appearances are closely watched for subtle clues that could influence market expectations and trading strategies.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock is scheduled to speak at the Annual Rotary Lecture in New South Wales on Thursday, with audience questions beginning at 2:40 AM GMT.

NZD - Inflation Expectations q/q (High Impact)

Inflation expectations (quarterly) gauge the percentage by which business managers predict the annual change in the price of goods and services over the next two years. If the actual inflation rate exceeds these forecasted expectations, it is typically favorable for the currency. Traders pay close attention to these expectations because they can lead to actual inflation; workers may demand higher wages if they anticipate rising prices. These expectations are derived from a survey of about 100 consumers, who are asked to estimate future price levels 24 months ahead.

In the latest Survey of Expectations conducted by Research New Zealand on behalf of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, findings reveal shifts in economic forecasts among 37 business leaders and professional forecasters. Notably, short-term and medium-term Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation expectations have declined, with one-year CPI forecasts dropping from 3.22% to 2.73%, and two-year expectations falling from 2.50% to 2.33%. Long-term expectations for five and ten years remain relatively stable at 2.25% and a slight increase to 2.19%, respectively. Additionally, wage inflation expectations for the next year decreased to 3.55% from 3.73%, though anticipated to rise slightly in two years to 3.23%. The unemployment rate is expected to increase to 4.90% in a year, then decrease marginally. The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is projected to be 5.46% by the end of June 2024, slightly below the current rate of 5.50%. House price inflation forecasts also show a slowdown, with a significant drop in one-year expectations from 4.82% to 3.43% and a two-year projection of 4.74%. These insights follow the CPI release from Stats NZ and the fieldwork was conducted between April 18 and 26, 2024.

TL;DR

Indicator	Current Forecast	Previous Forecast	Notes
1-Year CPI Inflation	2.73%	3.22%	Short-term inflation expectations decreased.
2-Year CPI Inflation	2.33%	2.50%	Medium-term inflation expectations decreased.
Long-Term CPI Inflation (5 years)	2.25%	2.25%	Long-term expectations stable.
Long-Term CPI Inflation (10 years)	2.19%	Slight increase	Long-term expectations slightly increased.
1-Year Wage Inflation	3.55%	3.73%	Expectations for wage inflation decreased.
2-Year Wage Inflation	3.23%	Slightly higher	Anticipated to rise slightly in two years.
Unemployment Rate	4.90% in one year	Expected to decrease	Projected to increase, then decrease slightly.
Official Cash Rate (OCR)	5.46% by June 2024	5.50%	Expected to decrease slightly by June 2024.
1-Year House Price Inflation	3.43%	4.82%	Significant slowdown in one-year expectations.
2-Year House Price Inflation	4.74%	Stable	Two-year projection remains unchanged.

Fieldwork Dates: April 18 to 26, 2024

Source: Survey of Expectations by Research New Zealand for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand

The forecast for quarterly Inflation Expectations stands at 1.9%, compared to the previous outcome of 2.33%.

The next quarterly Inflation Expectations report is scheduled for release on Thursday at 3:00 AM GMT.

USD - Unemployment Claims (High Impact)

The "Unemployment Claims" measure represents the number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. Generally, when the 'Actual' figure is less than the 'Forecast,' it is considered positive for the currency. Although this is typically viewed as a lagging indicator, the number of unemployed people is a key signal of overall economic health, as consumer spending is closely linked to labor market conditions. Additionally, unemployment is a significant factor for those guiding the country's monetary policy.

In the week ending July 27, U.S. initial unemployment claims increased by 14,000 to 249,000, surpassing market expectations of 236,000 and reaching a near yearly high. The four-week moving average, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, also rose by 2,500 to 238,000. This data suggests a continued weakening in the U.S. labor market, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates by September. Additionally, the number of people claiming unemployment benefits increased by 33,000 to 1,877,000 for the week ending July 20, marking the highest level since November 2021. Despite this, non-seasonally adjusted claims saw a decline of 10,012, with significant decreases in Texas and Ohio.

TL;DR

Category	Details
Initial Unemployment Claims	249,000 (week ending July 27); +14,000 from prior week; exceeded market expectations of 236,000; near yearly high
Four-Week Moving Average	238,000; +2,500 from prior week
Number of Unemployment Benefits	1,877,000 (week ending July 20); +33,000 from prior week; highest since November 2021
Non-Seasonally Adjusted Claims	Declined by 10,012; notable decreases in Texas and Ohio
Potential Fed Action	Data suggests weakening labor market; potential for interest rate cut by September

The forecast for U.S. unemployment claims is expected to be 241,000, slightly lower than the previous outcome of 249,000.

The next unemployment claims report is scheduled for release on Thursday at 12:30 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 8, 2024

9th August 2024

Friday

China is set to release its year-over-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) figures, offering crucial insights into the country's inflationary pressures and manufacturing costs. Following this, attention will shift to Canada, where the latest data on Employment Change and the Unemployment Rate will be unveiled, providing a snapshot of the labor market's health and the broader economic landscape.

CNY - CPI y/y (Medium)

The CPI Year-over-Year (Y/Y) measures the annual change in prices for goods and services purchased by consumers. When the actual CPI exceeds forecasts, it typically strengthens the currency, as rising consumer prices contribute significantly to overall inflation. Higher inflation often leads central banks to raise interest rates, which can boost the currency's value. The CPI is calculated by comparing the average prices of a broad range of goods and services to those from the same period a year earlier.

In June, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to a three-month low of 0.2% year-on-year, marking a subtle decrease from the previous month's 0.3% and falling short of the expected 0.4%. This softer inflation reading was mainly due to significant declines in food prices, especially for fresh vegetables, fruits, beef, and mutton, which contrasted with a recovery in pork prices. Non-food categories also contributed to subdued inflation, with notable decreases in sectors like vehicles and household appliances. Given this backdrop of persistently low inflation, analysts predict potential monetary policy adjustments by the People's Bank of China to stimulate economic activity without increasing pressure on the yuan.

TL;DR

CPI Inflation Rate: 0.2% year-on-year, marking a three-month low.
Comparison with Previous Month: Slight decrease from the previous month's 0.3%.
Expected Rate: Below the expected rate of 0.4%.
Primary Contributors to Inflation Rate:
- Significant declines in prices of fresh vegetables, fruits, beef, and mutton.
- Notable recovery in pork prices.
Non-Food Category Influences: Notable decreases in the sectors of vehicles and household appliances.
Economic Context: Persistently low inflation observed.
Analyst Prediction: Potential adjustments in monetary policy by the People's Bank of China to stimulate economic activity without adding pressure on the yuan.

The projected annual Consumer Price Index increase stands at 0.3%, up from the previous measurement of 0.2%.

CNY - PPI y/y (Medium)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-over-year measures the change in the prices of goods that producers purchase and sell. This index is closely watched because it serves as a leading indicator of consumer inflation; when producers face higher costs, they often pass these expenses on to consumers, resulting in increased prices at the consumer level. Typically, if the 'Actual' PPI exceeds the 'Forecast,' it is considered positive for the currency, as it suggests rising inflationary pressures, which may lead to tighter monetary policy.

In June 2024, China's Producer Price Index (PPI) reported a contraction of 0.8% year-over-year, signaling the 21st consecutive month of deflation but also showing a slight improvement from the 1.4% decline seen in May. This reduction, which represents the softest fall since January 2023, aligns with market forecasts and may indicate a potential end to the deflationary period that has persisted since September 2022. Despite these hopeful signs, the overall decrease reflects ongoing fluctuations in global commodity prices and continued weak domestic demand for certain industrial goods. Breaking down the components, the costs in the means of production decreased less sharply at -0.8% compared to -1.6% in May, with mining and raw materials prices showing notable increases. However, consumer goods prices remained down by -0.8%, with specific declines in food, daily use goods, and durable goods, while clothing prices stayed flat. On a monthly basis, producer prices fell by 0.2%, reversing a previous gain seen in May, and cumulatively, producer prices in the first half of 2024 dropped by 2.1%.

TL;DR

China's PPI in June 2024: Recorded a year-over-year contraction of 0.8%.
Trend of Deflation: Marks the 21st consecutive month of deflation, though the decline has softened compared to the 1.4% decrease in May 2024.
Comparison to Previous Data: Represents the softest fall since January 2023.
Market Alignment: Matches market forecasts, suggesting a potential end to the ongoing deflationary period starting from September 2022.
Global and Domestic Factors: Reflects fluctuations in global commodity prices and weak domestic demand for some industrial goods.
Breakdown of Components:
- Means of Production: Decreased by 0.8%, less sharp than May's -1.6%.
- Mining and Raw Materials: Noted for price increases.
- Consumer Goods:Continued to decline by 0.8%, including specific categories:
  - Food
  - Daily Use Goods
  - Durable Goods
- Clothing Prices: Remained flat.
Monthly Change: Producer prices fell by 0.2%, reversing a gain from May 2024.
Cumulative Data for 2024: First half of the year saw a 2.1% drop in producer prices.

The forecast for the Producer Price Index year-over-year stands at -0.9%, compared to the previous result of -0.8%.

The upcoming Consumer Price Index year-over-year and Producer Price Index year-over-year are scheduled for release on Friday at 1:30 AM GMT.

CAD - Employment Change (High Impact)

Employment Change Measures track the monthly increase or decrease in the number of employed individuals. When the actual figures surpass forecasts, it is typically positive for the currency. Traders closely monitor this data because job creation is a crucial indicator of consumer spending, which is a major driver of overall economic activity.

In June, employment in Canada saw a marginal decline of 1,400 jobs, remaining virtually unchanged at a rate of -0.0%. Despite this slight dip, the employment rate fell by 0.2 percentage points to 61.1%, marking the eighth decrease in the past nine months and a 1.3 percentage point drop from its peak earlier in the year. Key sectors such as transportation and warehousing and public administration experienced job losses, while gains were noted in accommodation and food services and agriculture. The unemployment rate edged up to 6.4%, reflecting ongoing challenges in the labor market, particularly for young men and returning students.

TL;DR

Employment Overview for June: Canada saw a marginal job decrease of 1,400, leading to an essentially unchanged employment rate of -0.0%.
Employment Rate Decline: There was a 0.2 percentage point decrease in the employment rate, lowering it to 61.1%. This marks the eighth decline in the past nine months, totaling a 1.3 percentage point reduction from its peak earlier in the year.
Sector-Specific Performance:
- Job losses were observed in the transportation and warehousing sectors, as well as in public administration.
- Employment gains occurred in the accommodation and food services sector and in agriculture.
Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate increased slightly to 6.4%, indicating persistent labor market challenges, particularly affecting young men and returning students.

The forecast for Employment Change predicts an increase of 26,900 jobs, compared to the previous decrease of 1,400 jobs.

CAD - Unemployment Rate (High Impact)

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking work from the previous month. A lower 'Actual' rate compared to the 'Forecast' is typically favorable for the currency. Although it is often considered a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is crucial for assessing overall economic health, as consumer spending tends to be closely linked to labor market conditions.

In June 2024, Canada's unemployment rate increased to 6.4%, marking its highest level since January 2022 and showing a significant uptick from 6.2% in May, according to Statistics Canada. This rise in unemployment comes as the economy lost a total of 1,400 jobs, with a notable decrease in full-time positions by 3,400, partially offset by an increase of 1,900 in part-time jobs. Significant job losses were recorded in transportation and warehousing, which shed 11,700 positions, and public administration, which dropped by 8,800 jobs. Meanwhile, there were gains in the accommodation and food services sector, which added 17,200 jobs, and agriculture, which saw an increase of 12,300 jobs. This shift in employment metrics occurs amidst a backdrop of declining employment rates, particularly among young men aged 15 to 24 and a slight increase in the average hourly wage by 5.4% year-over-year, highlighting ongoing adjustments in the labor market.

TL;DR

Unemployment Rate Increase: Canada's unemployment rate rose to 6.4% in June 2024, the highest since January 2022, up from 6.2% in May.
Job Losses Overall: The economy experienced a net loss of 1,400 jobs.
Full-time vs. Part-time Employment:
- Loss of 3,400 full-time jobs.
- Increase of 1,900 part-time jobs.
Sector-Specific Impacts:
- Transportation and warehousing saw a decrease of 11,700 jobs.
- Public administration jobs decreased by 8,800.
- Accommodation and food services sector gained 17,200 jobs.
- Agriculture sector saw an increase of 12,300 jobs.
Employment Rates: Decline noted in employment rates, especially among young men aged 15 to 24.
Wages: Average hourly wage increased by 5.4% year-over-year.

The forecast for the unemployment rate is projected to remain stable at 6.5%, marginally higher than the previous rate of 6.4%.

The upcoming Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports are scheduled for release on Friday at 12:30 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 12, 2024

13th August 2024

Tuesday

On August 13th, key global economic data releases will take center stage. Australia will report its Westpac Consumer Confidence and quarterly Wage Price Index, providing insight into wage trends and inflation. The UK will release crucial labor market data, including unemployment rates and wage growth. Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment Index will measure investor confidence, while the US will unveil its Core PPI and PPI, essential for tracking inflation trends. These updates are expected to significantly impact financial markets and economic forecasts globally.

AUD - Westpac Consumer Confidence (Medium Impact)

The Westpac Consumer Confidence Index, from Melbourne Institute, gauges consumer sentiment on economic activity, including personal finances, future economic expectations, and major purchase conditions. A high reading supports the AUD, while a low one is bearish. This index is crucial for traders as it predicts consumer spending, a key economic driver, based on a survey of around 1,200 consumers.

Australia's consumer confidence took a hit in July 2024, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index dropping by 1.1% month-over-month to a six-month low of 82.7. This decline, the fifth of the year, reflects growing concerns over persistent inflation and rising borrowing costs, which overshadowed the positive impact of recent tax cuts and fiscal support measures. Notably, the ‘family finances vs a year ago’ sub-index saw a sharp drop of 8.4% to a weak 63.5, while expectations for finances in the next year also fell. Despite an uptick in sentiment regarding economic conditions over the next 12 months, broader worries about the economy's vulnerability to inflation and higher rates remained, according to Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan.

TL;DR

Category

Details

Consumer Confidence (July 2024)

Dropped by 1.1% month-over-month to a six-month low of 82.7

Number of Declines in 2024

Fifth decline of the year

Main Concerns

Persistent inflation, rising borrowing costs

Positive Factors

Recent tax cuts, fiscal support measures

'Family finances vs a year ago' sub-index

Sharp drop of 8.4% to 63.5

Expectations for finances in the next year

Declined

Sentiment on Economic Conditions (Next 12 months)

Increased

Overall Economic Concerns

Vulnerability to inflation and higher rates

Comment by Expert

Westpac senior economist Matthew Hassan

The forecast for Westpac Consumer Confidence indicates a projected increase of 0.5%, compared to the previous outcome of -1.1%.

The upcoming Westpac Consumer Confidence is set to be released on Tuesday at 12:30 AM GMT.

AUD - Wage Price Index q/q (High Impact)

The Wage Price Index (q/q) measures the change in labor costs paid by businesses and the government, excluding bonuses. A higher-than-expected result is typically favorable for the currency, as it signals potential inflationary pressures. Traders monitor this index closely because rising labor costs often lead to higher consumer prices, making it a key indicator of future inflation trends.

In the first quarter of 2024, Australia's seasonally adjusted wage price index experienced a slight decrease to 4.1% year-over-year, coming down from the 4.2% growth observed in the fourth quarter of 2023, which was the highest since the first quarter of 2009. This modest easing in wage growth was seen across both the public and private sectors, with public sector wages growing at 3.8%, down from 4.3%, and private sector wages at 4.1%, slightly lower than the previous 4.2%. The main sectors driving wage increases in original terms included healthcare and social assistance, which saw the highest increase at 5.3%, followed by electricity, gas, water, and waste services, retail trade, both at 4.4%, and administrative and support services along with transport, postal, and warehousing, each at 4.3%. Other significant contributors were construction at 4.2%, education and training at 4.1%, manufacturing at 4.0%, and mining at 3.8%. On a quarterly basis, the increase in wage prices softened to 0.8%, down from a revised 1.0% in the previous quarter and below market expectations of 0.9%, marking the lowest quarterly rise since the fourth quarter of 2022. This trend indicates a subtle deceleration in wage growth as the market adjusts to various economic pressures.

TL;DR

Overall wage growth in Q1 2024 decreased slightly to 4.1% from 4.2% in Q4 2023.
Public sector wage growth fell to 3.8% in Q1 2024 from 4.3% in Q4 2023.
Private sector wage growth decreased to 4.1% in Q1 2024 from 4.2% in Q4 2023.
Sectors with the highest wage increases in Q1 2024:
Healthcare & Social Assistance: 5.3%
Electricity, Gas, Water, Waste Services: 4.4%
Retail Trade: 4.4%
Quarterly wage price increase slowed to 0.8% in Q1 2024, down from 1.0% in Q4 2023.

The Wage Price Index forecast for the next quarter is projected at 0.9%, up from the previous figure of 0.8%.

The upcoming Wage Price Index will be released at 1:30 AM GMT on Tuesday.

GBP - Claimant Count Change (High Impact)

The UK Office for National Statistics' Claimant Count Change measures the month-to-month change in the number of people claiming unemployment benefits, serving as an early indicator of the labor market's health. This metric, released mid-month and covering the previous month, can impact GBP volatility. A rise in claimants is generally bearish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), signaling potential economic deterioration and looser monetary policy, while a drop is seen as bullish, reflecting improving economic conditions.

The UK's labour market is showing signs of strain as the number of people claiming unemployment benefits surged by 32.3 thousand to 1.66 million in June 2024, significantly exceeding market expectations and following a steep 51.9 thousand increase in May. Concurrently, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4%, indicative of a softening economy, despite a rise in payrolled employees which saw a monthly increase of 54,000 between April and May and an annual boost of 241,000. This period also recorded a decline in job vacancies, which fell by 30,000 in the quarter to 889,000—still higher than pre-pandemic levels. The employment rate marginally decreased to 74.4%, reflecting broader market uncertainties. Moreover, while earnings growth remains strong at 5.7% annually for both regular and total earnings, real earnings growth, adjusted for inflation, moderated to 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. The labour market's challenges are further highlighted by 49,000 working days lost due to labour disputes in May, signaling continuing tensions. This tumultuous environment is partly attributed to new policies that have raised the administrative earnings threshold for job seekers, influencing the Claimant Count and overall employment figures.

TL;DR

Indicator	June 2024	Previous Period	Comments
Unemployment Benefits Claimants	1.66 million (up by 32.3 thousand)	51.9 thousand increase in May	Surpassed market expectations
Unemployment Rate	4.4%	Increase from previous period	Sign of a softening economy
Payrolled Employees	Monthly increase of 54,000	Annual increase of 241,000	Reflects growth despite overall market strain
Job Vacancies	889,000	Decline of 30,000 in the quarter	Still above pre-pandemic levels
Employment Rate	74.4%	Marginal decrease	Indicates market uncertainty
Earnings Growth (Annual)	5.7% (both regular and total earnings)	Strong growth	Real earnings growth adjusted for inflation: 2.5% (regular), 2.2% (total)
Working Days Lost Due to Labour	49,000	N/A	Highlights ongoing tensions
Policy Impact	New policies increased administrative earnings threshold	Influenced Claimant Count and employment figures

The projected Claimant Count Change is forecasted at 14,500, compared to the previous figure of 32,300.

GBP – Employment Change (Medium Impact)

The UK Office for National Statistics' Employment Change report reveals the shift in employment numbers over the three months leading up to the release. A consistent increase in employment is typically viewed as a positive sign for the Pound Sterling (GBP), suggesting economic strength and stability. Conversely, a decrease in employment figures is generally considered bearish for the GBP, indicating potential economic weakness.

In the three months to May 2024, the number of people employed in the UK rose by 19,000, reversing a decline of 139,000 in the previous period and surpassing market expectations of an 18,000 increase. This marked the first job growth since the three months ending December 2023, with gains driven by an increase in part-time employees and full-time self-employed workers. However, the latest data also showed decreases in both full-time employees and part-time self-employed workers during the same period.

TL;DR

In the three months to May 2024, UK employment rose by 19,000, reversing a previous decline of 139,000.
This increase surpassed market expectations, which anticipated an 18,000 rise.
It was the first job growth since the three months ending December 2023.
Employment gains were driven by increases in part-time employees and full-time self-employed workers.
There were decreases in full-time employees and part-time self-employed workers during the same period.

The projected change in employment is forecasted to be -35,000, compared to the previous figure of 19,000.

GBP - Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Medium Impact)

The Average Earnings Index 3m/y, which tracks the change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor—including bonuses—has significant implications for the economy. When the 'Actual' figure surpasses the 'Forecast,' it is generally considered positive for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this indicator because it serves as a leading gauge of consumer inflation. Higher labor costs for businesses often translate into increased expenses for consumers, as companies pass on these costs through higher prices. Consequently, stronger-than-expected earnings data can signal rising inflationary pressures and influence currency markets.

In the UK, average weekly earnings, including bonuses, rose by 5.7% year-on-year to £689 in the three months to May 2024, aligning with market forecasts and marking a slight decrease from the 5.9% growth observed in the previous two periods. Public sector wage growth remained robust at 6.3%, while the private sector experienced a softening to 5.5% from 5.9%. Regular pay, which excludes bonuses, increased by 5.7%—the lowest rate since September 2022—and matched the anticipated 6% growth from prior months. The finance and business services sector led with a 7% increase in annual regular pay, followed by manufacturing at 6.4%, and services at 5.7%. When adjusted for inflation, real wage growth remained steady at 2.2% for total pay and improved marginally to 2.5% for regular pay, up from 2.4%, indicating sustained purchasing power amidst economic fluctuations.

TL;DR

Category	Details
Average Weekly Earnings	+5.7% YoY to £689 (three months to May 2024)
Public Sector Wage Growth	+6.3%
Private Sector Wage Growth	+5.5% (down from 5.9%)
Regular Pay (Excluding Bonuses)	+5.7% (lowest since September 2022, matching prior 6%)
Finance and Business Services	+7% annual regular pay
Manufacturing Sector	+6.4% annual regular pay
Services Sector	+5.7% annual regular pay
Real Wage Growth (Total Pay)	Steady at +2.2%
Real Wage Growth (Regular Pay)	Improved to +2.5% from +2.4%

The forecast for the Average Earnings Index indicates a rate of 4.6%, down from the previous result of 5.7%.

GBP – Unemployment Rate (Medium Impact)

The unemployment rate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking work over the past three months. Traders monitor this indicator closely because a rate lower than forecast is seen as favorable for the currency. Although considered a lagging indicator, the unemployment rate is crucial for assessing economic health, as it reflects labor market conditions closely tied to consumer spending. It also influences monetary policy decisions.

From March to May 2024, the UK's unemployment rate held steady at 4.4%, matching the previous three-month period and meeting market forecasts. This rate, the highest since late 2021, reflected an increase in the unemployed population by 88,000, reaching a total of 1.53 million. This rise was particularly notable among those unemployed for up to six months and those with longer durations of unemployment. In contrast, employment figures saw a slight improvement, with 19,000 more people employed, bringing the total to 33 million. This increase was largely attributed to a growth in part-time positions and self-employment. Additionally, the proportion of people holding second jobs rose to 3.8% of all employed individuals. On the other hand, the rate of economic inactivity decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 22.1%.

TL;DR

UK unemployment rate remained steady at 4.4% from March to May 2024, matching the previous three months and market forecasts.
The unemployment rate is the highest since late 2021.
The unemployed population increased by 88,000, reaching 1.53 million.
Notable rise in unemployment among those unemployed for up to six months and those with longer durations of unemployment.
Employment figures slightly improved, with 19,000 more people employed, totaling 33 million.
Employment growth largely driven by an increase in part-time positions and self-employment.
Proportion of people with second jobs increased to 3.8% of all employed individuals.
Economic inactivity rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 22.1%.

The unemployment rate forecast stands at 4.5%, slightly up from the previous rate of 4.4%.

The next release of the Claimant Count Change, Employment Change, Average Earnings Index 3m/y, and Unemployment Rate is scheduled for Tuesday at 6:00 AM GMT.

EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Medium Impact)

The German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index, a key indicator of economic health, reflects the outlook of around 300 institutional investors and analysts in Germany. This diffusion index measures their expectations for the country's economic performance over the next six months. A reading above 0.0 signifies optimism, while a reading below indicates pessimism. Traders closely monitor this index as it often provides an early signal of future economic activity, with higher-than-forecasted results generally considered positive for the currency. The index is derived from a survey asking respondents to rate their economic expectations, making it a valuable gauge of investor sentiment and potential economic trends.

In July 2024, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany fell for the first time in a year, dropping by 5.7 points to 41.8, the lowest level in four months and below forecasts of 42.5. This decline reflects a worsening economic outlook due to falling exports, political uncertainty in France, and unclear future monetary policy by the ECB. Conversely, the assessment of current economic conditions in Germany slightly improved, with the corresponding indicator rising by 4.9 points to -68.9, the highest in a year and better than expected.

TL;DR

In July 2024, the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased for the first time in a year.
The indicator dropped by 5.7 points to 41.8, marking the lowest level in four months and below the forecast of 42.5.
The decline is attributed to a worsening economic outlook due to falling exports, political uncertainty in France, and unclear future monetary policy by the ECB.
On the other hand, the assessment of current economic conditions in Germany slightly improved.
The corresponding indicator for current conditions rose by 4.9 points to -68.9, the highest level in a year and better than expected.

The forecast for the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is projected at 30.6, a decrease from the previous reading of 41.8.

The next release of the German ZEW Economic Sentiment is scheduled for Tuesday at 9:00 AM GMT.

USD - Core PPI m/m (High Impact)

The Producer Price Index (PPI) excluding food and energy, as published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, gauges the average changes in prices at the wholesale level across various stages of production in the United States. By excluding the more volatile categories of food and energy, this measure aims to provide a clearer picture of price trends. Typically, a high PPI reading is considered favorable or bullish for the US dollar, while a low reading is viewed as detrimental or bearish.

In a recent economic update, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics had announced that core producer prices, which exclude volatile items such as food and energy, had risen by 0.4% in June 2024. This increase followed an upward revision to 0.3% in the previous month, surpassing market expectations that had anticipated a more modest 0.2% rise. Year-over-year, core producer inflation had accelerated to a peak of 3%, the highest rate in over a year, climbing from a revised figure of 2.6% and exceeding analyst forecasts of 2.5%. This surge indicated a significant and persistent inflationary trend within the core sectors of the economy, sparking concerns about potential impacts on future economic policy and inflation trajectories.

TL;DR

Metric	Value	Details
Core Producer Price Increase (June 2024)	0.4%	Excludes volatile items like food and energy
Previous Month Revision (May 2024)	0.3%	Revised upward from earlier figures
Market Expectation (June 2024)	0.2%	Analysts anticipated a more modest rise
Year-over-Year Core Producer Inflation	3.0%	Highest rate in over a year, up from a revised 2.6%
Analyst Forecast (Year-over-Year)	2.5%	Expected lower than the actual 3.0%
Implications	Significant and persistent inflationary trend	Concerns about future economic policy and inflation trajectories

The projected month-over-month Core PPI is forecasted to be 0.2%, compared to the earlier figure of 0.4%.

USD – PPI m/m (High Impact)

The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand, released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, tracks price changes from producers for goods and services in various sectors. It includes final demand goods, trade services, transportation, warehousing, and construction. Traders watch the PPI closely as it indicates future consumer inflation; higher readings are typically seen as positive for the USD, while lower readings are negative.

In June 2024, the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) recorded a modest increase of 0.2% month-over-month, surpassing the anticipated 0.1% rise, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). This uptick, primarily driven by a 0.6% increase in service prices, notably in sectors like machinery and vehicle wholesaling, outpaced a 0.5% decline in goods prices, led by a significant 5.8% drop in gasoline costs. Despite the decrease in goods, the inflationary pressures were evident in other areas, such as autos and auto parts retailing, and computer hardware and software sales. On an annual basis, the producer inflation climbed to 2.6%, marking the highest rate since March 2023. Excluding food and energy, the core PPI rose by 0.4% for the month and reached a year-over-year increase of 3.0%, exceeding forecasts and indicating persistent inflationary pressures that could impact consumer prices. This data highlights ongoing inflation concerns in the U.S. economy, as businesses face higher costs that may be transferred to consumers.

TL;DR

Metric	Value/Change	Details
June 2024 PPI (Month-over-Month)	+0.2%	Higher than the anticipated 0.1% increase
Service Prices	+0.6%	Driven by machinery and vehicle wholesaling sectors
Goods Prices	+0.5%	Significant 5.8% drop in gasoline costs
Annual PPI (Year-over-Year)	+2.6%	Highest rate since March 2023
Core PPI (Excluding Food and Energy)	+0.4% (MoM), +3.0% (YoY)	Indicates persistent inflationary pressures
Notable Sectors	- Autos and auto parts retailing	- Computer hardware and software sales
Inflationary Pressure	Persistent	Businesses facing higher costs that could be passed on to consumers

The forecast for the PPI month-over-month is indicated at 0.2%, following a previous outcome of 0.2%.

The Core PPI m/m and PPI m/m are scheduled for release on Tuesday at 12:30 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 13, 2024

14th August 2024

Wednesday

On Wednesday, the financial world will be abuzz with a series of pivotal economic updates. New Zealand will kick off the day by unveiling its Official Cash Rate, setting the stage for market reactions. As the day progresses, all eyes will turn to the United Kingdom for the release of its latest year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, a key indicator of inflationary trends. In the afternoon, the United States will offer a fresh perspective on economic conditions with its inflation report. The day will wrap up with Japan revealing its quarterly GDP Growth Rate, providing a final piece of the global economic puzzle.

NZD - Official Cash Rate (High Impact)

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is the interest rate at which banks borrow from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) overnight. A higher OCR than forecast typically boosts the currency, as short-term interest rates are a key factor in currency valuation. Traders focus on this rate to gauge future currency movements, relying on other indicators to predict changes in interest rates. The OCR is set by the RBNZ Governor in consultation with senior bank staff and external advisers.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has decided to keep the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 5.50% during its July 2024 meeting, marking the eighth consecutive rate hold. The decision comes as restrictive monetary policy continues to temper inflation, which has decreased to 4% in the first quarter of 2024—still above the target range of 1-3%. The Committee expects inflation to re-enter this target range in the latter half of the year. Despite a decrease in inflation, the Reserve Bank stated that monetary policy would need to remain restrictive to further reduce inflationary pressures, although adjustments will be made gradually. The easing of labor market pressures due to cautious hiring practices and an increased labor supply was also noted, aligning with the bank’s current economic strategy.

TL;DR

Detail	Information
OCR Decision	Unchanged at 5.50%
Meeting Date	July 2024
Consecutive Rate Holds	8
Inflation Rate Q1 2024	4% (above the target range of 1-3%)
Expected Inflation Trend	Expected to re-enter target range of 1-3% in the latter half of 2024
Monetary Policy Stance	Remains restrictive to temper inflation; adjustments to be made gradually
Labor Market Condition	Easing pressures due to cautious hiring and an increased labor supply
Economic Strategy	Aligns with the current strategy of the Reserve Bank

The projected RBNZ Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 5.5%, unchanged from the previous rate.

The decision on the Official Cash Rate is scheduled for release on Wednesday at 2:00 AM GMT.

NZD – RBNZ Press Conference (Medium Impact)

The RBNZ Press Conference, led by the RBNZ Governor, is crucial for traders as it communicates monetary policy details and offers clues about future policy. The conference, webcasted live on the RBNZ website, lasts about 30 minutes and consists of a prepared statement followed by a Q&A session, which can cause market volatility due to unscripted answers. A more hawkish stance than expected is beneficial for the currency. This event, also known as the Monetary Policy Statement Media Conference, provides insights into the latest interest rate decision and economic outlook.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's press conference is scheduled for 3:00 AM GMT.

GBP - CPI y/y (High Impact)

CPI y/y measures the annual change in consumer prices for goods and services. A higher-than-forecast CPI generally strengthens the currency, as it suggests rising inflation, leading central banks to potentially raise interest rates. Traders care about this data because inflation impacts currency value and interest rates, which influence trading decisions and market expectations.

In June 2024, the UK's annual inflation rate remained steady at 2%, unchanged from May and reflecting levels last seen in 2021. This stability occurred despite forecasts predicting a slight decrease to 1.9%. Notable influences on the rate included a significant rise in the cost of restaurants and hotels, particularly hotel prices, which rose to 6.2% from 5.8% the previous month. Additionally, transport costs increased, led by expenses related to second-hand cars, maintenance, and airfares. Conversely, there was a decline in the inflation rates for clothing and footwear, as well as for food and non-alcoholic beverages, with the latter reaching its lowest point since October 2021. Housing and utility costs continued their downward trend, while inflation for services and recreation and culture remained consistent.

TL;DR

Category	Detail
General Inflation Rate	Remained steady at 2%, unchanged from May
Forecasts	Predicted a slight decrease to 1.9%, but actual was unchanged
Restaurants and Hotels	Significant rise, with hotel prices increasing to 6.2%
Transport Costs	Increased, led by expenses for second-hand cars, maintenance, and airfares
Clothing and Footwear	Decline in inflation rates
Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages	Decline, reaching the lowest point since October 2021
Housing and Utilities	Continued downward trend
Services	Inflation remained consistent
Recreation and Culture	Inflation remained consistent

The forecast for CPI year-over-year is projecting 2.3%, compared to the previous outcome of 2.0%.

The UK's annual CPI will be released on Wednesday at 6:00 AM GMT.

USD - Core CPI m/m (High Impact)

The Core Consumer Price Index year-over-year measure indicates how the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers change, excluding volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco. This data is released monthly, roughly 16 days after the end of the month. Generally, if the 'Actual' figure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it is considered positive for the currency. However, in this context, Core CPI data has a relatively minor impact compared to other countries because the central bank primarily focuses on the overall CPI for its inflation target.

In June 2024, U.S. core consumer prices, which exclude volatile food and energy items, rose modestly by 0.1% from the previous month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This increase is below the market expectations of 0.2% and represents the softest rise in core CPI since February 2021. The data suggests a significant moderation in inflation, particularly in shelter costs which rose by only 0.2% compared to 0.4% in May, and transportation services which continued to decline. This slowdown in core inflation supports the growing expectations among traders for the Federal Reserve to begin lowering interest rates as early as September, as the trend indicates a move towards the Fed's target inflation rate of 2% annually.

TL;DR

Reporting Period: June 2024
Core CPI Increase: 0.1%, below market expectations of 0.2%
Last Comparable Rise: Softest rise in core CPI since February 2021
Key Influences:
- Shelter costs increased by 0.2%, down from 0.4% in May
- Transportation services declined
Federal Reserve Action: Expectations for interest rate cuts as early as September, driven by moderation in inflation
Inflation Target: Current trends indicate a movement towards the Federal Reserve's annual target of 2% inflation

The forecast for Core CPI mm is projected at 0.2%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.1%.

USD - CPI m/m (High Impact)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. Typically, if the 'actual' CPI exceeds the 'forecast,' it is considered beneficial for the currency. This is because consumer prices make up a significant portion of overall inflation. Inflation, in turn, plays a crucial role in currency valuation, as increasing prices often prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to control inflation. The CPI is derived by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing them to the previous month's data.

In June 2024, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) unexpectedly decreased by 0.1% month-over-month, marking the first such decline since May 2020 and deviating from the expected 0.1% increase. This reduction was significantly influenced by a 3.8% drop in gasoline prices, which more than compensated for the smaller rises in food and shelter costs, both of which increased by 0.2%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also increased by a modest 0.1%, below both the previous month's figures and forecasts. This unexpected dip in the CPI contributed to the lowest annual inflation rate in over three years at 3%, fueling market speculation about potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the near future.

TL;DR

Overall CPI: Experienced an unexpected decline of 0.1% month-over-month, marking the first such drop since May 2020, against an anticipated increase of 0.1%.
Gasoline Prices: Plunged by 3.8%, significantly driving the overall decline in the CPI.
Food Costs: Recorded a modest increase of 0.2%.
Shelter Costs: Likewise, increased by a modest 0.2%.
Core CPI: Grew by only 0.1%, below both prior month's figures and expert forecasts.
Annual Inflation Rate: Fell to 3%, the lowest in over three years, triggering market discussions about possible interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

The forecast for CPI mm shows a notable shift, moving to 0.2% from a previous -0.1%.

USD - CPI y/y (High Impact)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year (y/y) measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. When the actual CPI exceeds the forecast, it is typically positive for the currency. This is because consumer prices account for a significant portion of overall inflation, which is crucial for currency valuation. Rising prices often prompt the central bank to raise interest rates to contain inflation. The CPI is derived by sampling the average price of various goods and services and comparing it to the previous sampling.

The annual inflation rate in the US fell for a third straight month to 3% in June 2024, the lowest since June 2023, compared to 3.3% in May and below forecasts of 3.1%. Energy costs rose at a slower pace (1% vs 3.7%), due to gasoline (-2.5% vs 2.2%) and fuel oil (0.8% vs 3.6%) while utility gas service (3.7% vs 0.2%) accelerated. Inflation also eased for shelter (5.2% vs 5.4%) and transportation (9.4% vs 10.5%) and steadied for apparel (0.8%). In addition, prices continued to decline for new vehicles (-0.9% vs -0.8%) and used cars and trucks (-10.1% vs -9.3%). On the other hand, food inflation edged up (2.2% vs 2.1%). Compared to May, the CPI unexpectedly declined 0.1%, the first fall since May 2020, following a flat reading and compared to expectations of a 0.1% rise. Meanwhile, annual core inflation also slowed to 3.3%, a fresh low since April 2021, from 3.4% in May and forecasts it would remain steady. The monthly rate edged down to 0.1% from 0.2%, below expectations of 0.2%

TL;DR

Total CPI: Fell to 3.0% in June from 3.3% in May, below the forecast of 3.1%.
Energy Costs: Overall growth slowed to 1.0%, with significant decreases in gasoline prices (-2.5%) and a modest slowdown in fuel oil (0.8%); utility gas service saw a sharp increase to 3.7%.
Shelter: Inflation slightly eased to 5.2% from 5.4%.
Transportation: Rates dropped to 9.4% from 10.5%, indicating a decrease in transportation cost inflation.
Apparel: Remained stable at an 0.8% rate.
New Vehicles: Continued to decline with a rate of -0.9%, showing further depreciation.
Used Cars & Trucks: Inflation rate accelerated in decline to -10.1%.
Food: Experienced a slight increase to 2.2% from 2.1%.
Monthly CPI Change: Unexpectedly declined by 0.1%, marking the first fall since May 2020 and falling below expectations of a 0.1% rise.
Annual Core Inflation: Slowed to 3.3% from 3.4%, reaching a new low since April 2021 and dropping more than the forecast which predicted it would hold steady.
Monthly Core Inflation: Edged down to 0.1% from 0.2%, also below the expected rate of 0.2%.

The CPI y/y forecast remains steady at 3.0%, unchanged from the previous measurement.

The next set of US inflation data is due for release on Wednesday at 12:30 PM GMT.

JPY - Prelim GDP q/q (Medium Impact)

Preliminary GDP (quarter-over-quarter) measures the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. A higher-than-forecast 'Actual' figure is generally positive for the currency. Traders pay close attention to this because it is the most comprehensive indicator of economic activity and serves as the main gauge of the economy's overall health.

Japan's economy contracted by 0.5% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2024, reversing a previously revised 0.1% growth in the final quarter of 2023, and falling short of market expectations. This decline was largely driven by a steep 0.7% drop in private consumption, marking the fourth consecutive quarterly decrease as consumers faced high living costs and stagnant wages. Capital expenditure also weakened, down 0.4%, influenced by reduced auto production following a scandal at Daihatsu Motor. Additionally, net trade negatively impacted GDP, with exports falling more sharply than imports. Despite a slight 0.2% increase in government spending, overall GDP shrank by 2% year-on-year, a sharper contraction than anticipated and reflecting ongoing challenges in private spending and global demand.

Economic Indicator	Q1 2024 Performance	Change from Previous Quarter	Notes
Overall GDP Growth	-0.5%	Reversal from +0.1% in Q4 2023	Year-on-year contraction of 2%
Private Consumption	-0.7%	Fourth consecutive decrease	High living costs and stagnant wages cited as causes
Capital Expenditure	-0.4%	Decrease from previous quarter	Affected by reduced auto production due to Daihatsu scandal
Net Trade	Negative impact	Exports fell more than imports	Contributed to GDP shrinkage
Government Spending	+0.2%	Slight increase	Insufficient to offset declines in other areas

The forecast for the quarterly GDP growth rate is 0.6%, a turnaround from the previous decline of -0.5%.

The preliminary quarterly GDP data is scheduled to be released on Wednesday at 11:50 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 14, 2024

15th August 2024

Thursday

On August 15th, a series of pivotal economic indicators will be released, beginning with Australia, which will disclose its Employment Change and Unemployment Rate figures. This will be closely followed by China's announcement of its year-on-year Industrial Production and Retail Sales data. The focus will then shift to the UK, where the latest GDP data will be revealed on a month-on-month, quarter-on-quarter preliminary, and year-over-year basis. The day's reporting will conclude in the US, where the spotlight will be on its Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales on a month-on-month basis, alongside Unemployment Claims, the Empire State Manufacturing Index, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. These releases are expected to provide crucial insights into the economic conditions of these key global players.

AUD - Employment Change (High Impact)

Employment change tracks the shift in the number of employed individuals from the previous month and is published monthly, usually about 15 days after the end of the month. This crucial economic data, because of its importance and early release, has a significant effect on the market. Generally, if the 'actual' number exceeds the 'forecast,' it is viewed positively for the currency. Job creation is a key leading indicator of consumer spending, which represents a substantial part of overall economic activity.

In June 2024, Australia's job market experienced substantial growth, surpassing expectations with an overall employment increase of 50,200—the largest in four months—to reach a total of 14,406,100 workers. This surge well exceeded market forecasts, which had anticipated a 20,000 job gain. The figures revealed a significant rise in full-time positions, adding 43,300 jobs to total 9,944,200, while part-time employment also rose by 6,800 to 4,461,800. Overall, employment grew by 387,600 over the past year, marking a 2.8 percent increase. In trend terms, monthly hours worked edged up by 6 million hours to 1,967 million hours. The employment-to-population ratio held steady at 64.1%, while the participation rate remained unchanged at 66.8% overall—70.9% for men and increasing to 62.9% for women. Notably, the underemployment rate was constant at 6.5%, and the underutilisation rate dropped slightly to 10.5%. These figures underscore a robust labor market showing significant full-time job creation and sustained participation rates.

TL;DR

Overall Employment Increase: 50,200
Total Workers: 14,406,100
Market Forecast (Job Gain): 20,000
Full-Time Employment Increase: 43,300
Total Full-Time Workers: 9,944,200
Part-Time Employment Increase: 6,800
Total Part-Time Workers: 4,461,800
Employment Growth Over Past Year: 387,600
Yearly Employment Growth Rate: 2.8%
Monthly Hours Worked: 1,967 million hours
Employment-to-Population Ratio: 64.1%
Overall Participation Rate: 66.8%
Men's Participation Rate: 70.9%
Women's Participation Rate: 62.9%
Underemployment Rate: 6.5%
Underutilisation Rate: 10.5%

The Employment Change forecast for Australia is anticipated to be 20,200, in contrast to the previous figure of 50,200.

AUD - Unemployment Rate (High Impact)

The Unemployment Rate gauges the percentage of the workforce that is unemployed and actively looking for a job in the previous month. This statistic is released monthly, roughly 15 days after the end of the month. While it is considered a lagging indicator, it remains crucial for assessing economic health because consumer spending closely aligns with labor market conditions. In currency trading, a lower actual unemployment rate compared to the forecast is seen as positive.

In June 2024, Australia's unemployment rate experienced a slight uptick, rising to 4.1% from the 4.0% reported in May, despite projections it would remain unchanged. This increase was accompanied by a rise in the number of job seekers, with total unemployment reaching 608.2 thousand—an increase of 9.7 thousand. This was driven by a notable rise in individuals searching for part-time work, which grew by 7.5 thousand to 206.4 thousand, while those seeking full-time positions increased by 2.2 thousand to 401.8 thousand. Despite the higher unemployment rate, the overall employment figures were robust, with an addition of 50.2 thousand jobs in June, marking the most substantial growth in four months and surpassing market expectations of a 20 thousand increase. This growth was primarily in full-time employment, which surged by 43.3 thousand to 9.94 million, while part-time positions also saw a gain of 6.8 thousand to reach 4.46 million. Moreover, the participation rate slightly increased to 66.9% from 66.8% in the previous month, indicating a larger pool of people either working or looking for work. Furthermore, the underemployment rate decreased to 6.5% from 6.7%, and total monthly hours worked in all jobs climbed by 15 million or 0.8%, totaling 1,967 million hours.

TL;DR

Metric	June 2024	Change from May 2024
Unemployment Rate	4.1%	+0.1 percentage points
Total Unemployed	608.2 thousand	+9.7 thousand
Unemployed Seeking Part-Time Work	206.4 thousand	+7.5 thousand
Unemployed Seeking Full-Time Work	401.8 thousand	+2.2 thousand
Total Employment	50.2 thousand jobs added
Full-Time Employment	9.94 million	+43.3 thousand
Part-Time Employment	4.46 million	+6.8 thousand
Participation Rate	66.9%	+0.1 percentage points
Underemployment Rate	6.5%	-0.2 percentage points
Total Monthly Hours Worked	1,967 million hours	+15 million hours (or +0.8%)

The forecast for the Unemployment Rate is 4.1%, matching the previous outcome of 4.1%.

The upcoming release of the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate data is scheduled for Thursday at 1:30 AM GMT.

CNY - Industrial Production y/y (Medium Impact)

The Industrial Production Year-over-Year Measures gauge the change in the inflation-adjusted output from manufacturers, mines, and utilities. When the actual data exceeds forecasts, it's often seen as a positive sign for the currency. Traders focus on this indicator because it provides insight into economic health and reacts swiftly to changes in the business cycle, making it a crucial tool for assessing economic trends.

In June 2024, China's industrial production increased by 5.3% year-on-year, exceeding market forecasts of 5.0% but decelerating from a 5.6% growth in May. This development marks the second consecutive month of moderated growth, recording the slowest pace since March, primarily due to a decrease in manufacturing activity, which grew by 5.5% compared to 6.0% in the previous month. The fragility of the economic recovery was evident across various sectors, although 35 out of 41 major industries still reported growth. Notable sectors include coal, mining & washing, and oil & natural gas, each expanding by 4.4%, while chemical products surged by 9.9%. Additionally, textiles advanced by 5.1%, and non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing jumped by 10.2%. Other transportation equipment led the gains with a remarkable 13.1% growth, and the automobile sector grew by 6.6%. Furthermore, sectors like computer, communication and other electronic equipment, and utilities saw increases of 4.4% and 4.1%, respectively. On a monthly basis, industrial activity edged up by 0.4%, following a 0.3% rise in May, bringing the year-to-date advance in industrial output to 6.0%.

TL;DR

Overall Industrial Production:
- June 2024: Increased by 5.3% year-on-year (YoY)
- May 2024: Increased by 5.6% YoY
- Year-to-Date: 6.0% YoY growth
Manufacturing Activity:
- June 2024: 5.5% YoY
- May 2024: 6.0% YoY
Notable Sector Growth in June 2024:
- Coal, Mining & Washing, Oil & Natural Gas: 4.4% YoY
- Chemical Products: 9.9% YoY
- Textiles: 5.1% YoY
- Non-Ferrous Metal Smelting & Rolling: 10.2% YoY
- Other Transportation Equipment: 13.1% YoY
- Automobile Sector: 6.6% YoY
- Computer, Communication & Electronic Equipment: 4.4% YoY
- Utilities: 4.1% YoY
Monthly Industrial Activity:
- June 2024: Increased by 0.4%
- May 2024: Increased by 0.3%

The forecast for year-over-year industrial production is 5.2%, a slight decrease from the previous 5.3%.

CNY - Retail Sales y/y (Medium Impact)

The monthly Retail Sales data, released by China's National Bureau of Statistics, measures the total value of goods sold by retailers throughout China, providing a key indicator of consumer spending. This data shows the percentage change in sales by comparing figures from the current month to those from the same month the previous year. Generally, a higher reading signals positive momentum for the Chinese Renminbi (CNY), while a lower reading suggests a less favorable outlook.

In June 2024, China's retail sales growth slowed significantly to 2% year-over-year, missing forecasts of 3.3% and marking a decrease from the previous month's 3.7%. This represents the weakest growth in 17 months, with notable declines in sales of cosmetics, household appliances, and cultural items. Beverage and furniture sectors also saw reduced growth rates. Additionally, retail activity experienced a 0.12% decline on a monthly basis, the first since July 2023. Despite these downturns, the first half-year retail sales still grew by 3.7%.

TL;DR

Year-over-Year Growth in June 2024: 2%, down from 3.7% the previous month and below the forecast of 3.3%. Weakest growth in 17 months.
Monthly Change: Declined by 0.12%, marking the first monthly drop since July 2023.
Sector Declines: Significant reductions in sales for cosmetics, household appliances, cultural items, beverages, and furniture.
First Half-Year Growth: 3.7%, indicating positive overall growth despite recent downturns

The forecast for year-over-year Retail Sales stands at 2.6%, up from the previous 2%.

The upcoming year-over-year Industrial Production and Retail Sales data will be released on Thursday at 2:00 AM GMT.

GBP – GDP y/y (Medium Impact)

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key economic metric published by the Office for National Statistics both monthly and quarterly. It quantifies the entire value of goods and services produced in the UK over a specific period, serving as the principal indicator of economic activity in the country. The year-over-year (YoY) comparison assesses economic performance by comparing the data from a given quarter with the same quarter in the previous year. Typically, a higher GDP reading suggests positive momentum for the Pound Sterling (GBP), indicating a bullish scenario, whereas a lower GDP figure suggests a bearish outlook for the currency.

In a remarkable turnaround from the economic downturn, the UK economy exhibited a modest growth of 0.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, a slight improvement from the initial estimate of 0.2%. This positive shift marks a recovery from a 0.2% contraction in the previous quarter. The services sector, often seen as the economy's backbone, outperformed expectations with a growth rate of 0.4%, surpassing the preliminary estimate of 0.3%. While production gains were more modest than anticipated at 0.3% versus an expected 0.5%, it still represents a recovery from a previous decline of 0.1%. However, not all sectors fared well; construction continued its decline, falling by 0.4%, albeit at a slower pace than initially feared. On the expenditure front, while public spending surged by 3.4%, household consumption, business investment, exports, and imports all contracted. Yet, in a sign of resilience, the UK GDP grew by 0.7% compared to the previous quarter, officially exiting recession and surpassing initial estimates, heralding a cautiously optimistic outlook for the UK's economic future.

TL;DR

Overall GDP Growth: Increased modestly by 0.3% year-on-year, slightly above the initial estimate of 0.2%.
Recovery from Recession: Quarter-over-quarter growth was 0.7%, marking an exit from the previous quarter's recession.
Services Sector: Grew by 0.4%, outperforming the initial estimate of 0.3%.
Production: Increased by 0.3%, below the expected 0.5% but an improvement from the previous decline of 0.1%.
Construction: Continued to decline at a rate of -0.4%, though this was less severe than anticipated.
Public Spending: Showed a significant rise of 3.4%.
Private Sector Struggles: Household consumption, business investment, exports, and imports all contracted.
Overall Outlook: Indicates a cautiously optimistic future for the UK economy, with signs of resilience despite mixed sector performance.

The GDP year-over-year forecast is projected at 0.9%, an increase from the previous figure of 0.3%.

GBP - GDP m/m (High Impact)

The GDP month-over-month (m/m) measures the change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Generally, if the 'Actual' GDP exceeds the 'Forecast,' it is considered favorable for the currency. Traders closely monitor this indicator because it is the broadest measure of economic activity and serves as the primary gauge of the economy's health.

In May 2024, the UK's economy recorded a stronger-than-expected growth of 0.4%, surpassing the predicted 0.2% and recovering from a stagnant April. This boost was led by significant gains in consumer spending, with notable improvements in retail and wholesale sectors. The construction industry experienced its fastest growth rate in nearly a year, driven by increases in house building and infrastructure projects, as highlighted by Liz McKeown, ONS Director of Economic Statistics. Additionally, the manufacturing sector, particularly food and beverage production, contributed positively, reflecting a 0.4% increase. The services sector, primarily retail trade and professional activities, also saw growth, contributing to the overall economic expansion. This robust performance across various sectors led to a recovery in industrial production and marked one of the strongest three-month growth periods the UK has seen in over two years.

TL;DR

Economic Indicator	Growth	Details
Overall Economic Growth	0.4%	Exceeded predictions (0.2%), strong recovery from stagnant April.
Consumer Spending	Significant	Major driver of growth, especially in retail and wholesale sectors.
Construction Industry	Fastest in nearly a year	Driven by house building and infrastructure projects.
Manufacturing Sector	0.4%	Led by food and beverage production.
Services Sector	Positive	Focused on retail trade and professional activities.
Industrial Production	Recovered	Contributed to overall economic expansion.
Performance (Last 3 Months)	Strongest in over 2 years	Marked one of the best quarterly performances recently.

The forecast for GDP month-over-month stands at 0.0%, while the previous figure was 0.4%.

GBP - Prelim GDP q/q (Medium Impact)

The preliminary GDP quarter-over-quarter measures indicate the change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. Traders closely monitor these figures because a higher-than-expected actual GDP compared to the forecast is generally considered positive for the currency. This is because GDP is the broadest measure of economic activity and serves as the primary gauge of the economy's overall health.

The UK's preliminary GDP figures for the first quarter of 2024 revealed a notable 0.7% growth, surpassing the initial estimate of 0.6% and marking the strongest expansion in over two years. This growth signals the end of the recession that began last year. The services sector led the recovery with a 0.8% increase, driven by significant contributions from scientific research and legal activities. The production sector grew by 0.6%, though this was slightly below the early estimate of 0.8% due to a revision in manufacturing growth. The construction sector also performed better than initially reported, with a decline of 0.6% compared to the earlier estimate of 0.9%. On a monthly basis, March 2024 saw a 0.4% GDP increase, fueled by services and production outputs, which mitigated the impact of declining construction activity. In terms of expenditure, imports fell by 2.7%, more than the 2.3% initially reported, while exports decreased by 1%. Household spending rose by 0.4%, up from the previous 0.2% estimate, mainly due to increased spending on recreation, housing, and food. Gross capital formation increased by 0.9%, less than the expected 1.4%, and government consumption was revised to show no growth. Year-on-year, the economy grew by 0.3%, slightly higher than the initially reported 0.2%, reflecting a broader economic recovery amidst ongoing adjustments.

TL;DR

Total GDP Growth: Increased to +0.7%, up from the initial estimate of +0.6%.
Services Sector Growth: Led the recovery with a +0.8% increase, notably driven by scientific research and legal activities.
Production Sector Growth: Revised down to +0.6% from an early estimate of +0.8%, primarily due to adjustments in manufacturing growth.
Construction Sector Change: Improved performance with a decrease of -0.6%, better than the previously estimated -0.9%.
Monthly GDP for March 2024: Recorded a +0.4% increase, fueled by gains in services and production despite a decline in construction.
Imports: Declined by -2.7%, a steeper drop than the initially reported -2.3%.
Exports: Fell by -1.0%, with no revision from initial estimates.
Household Spending: Rose to +0.4%, an increase from the earlier +0.2% estimate, with more expenditures on recreation, housing, and food.
Gross Capital Formation: Grew by +0.9%, less than the expected +1.4%.
Government Consumption: Revised to show no growth, contrary to initial positive estimates.
Annual GDP Growth: Year-on-year, the economy grew by +0.3%, slightly higher than the initially reported +0.2%.

The forecast for Preliminary GDP quarter-over-quarter stands at 0.6%, compared to the previous outcome of 0.7%.

The monthly, quarterly, and annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be released on Thursday at 6:00 AM GMT.

USD – Core Retail Sales m/m (High Impact)

The Core Retail Sales measure, which tracks changes in retail sales values excluding automobiles, is an important economic indicator. It is often seen as more dependable than the overall Retail Sales data because automobile sales, which account for around 20% of retail sales, can be quite volatile and may obscure underlying trends. When the actual Core Retail Sales figure surpasses the forecast, it is generally interpreted as a positive sign for the currency, indicating stronger consumer spending trends.

In June 2024, U.S. retail sales excluding motor vehicles and parts increased by 0.4% month-over-month, following an upwardly revised 0.1% gain in the previous month, surpassing market expectations of a 0.1% rise. This indicates a stronger-than-anticipated consumer spending trend. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales in these categories rose by 3.4%, reflecting continued consumer resilience despite broader economic challenges. This data suggests a positive outlook for the economy, as core retail sales are a critical component of consumer spending and overall economic growth.

TL;DR

June 2024 Data for U.S. Retail Sales Excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts:
- Month-over-month increase of 0.4%, surpassing the upwardly revised gain of 0.1% from the previous month.
- Exceeded market expectations, which predicted only a 0.1% rise.
Year-over-Year Comparison:
- Sales in these categories rose by 3.4%.
Economic Implications:
- Indicates a stronger-than-anticipated trend in consumer spending.
- Suggests continued consumer resilience despite broader economic challenges.
- Positive outlook for the economy, as core retail sales are critical to consumer spending and overall economic growth.

The forecast for Core Retail Sales month-over-month is 0.1%, compared to the previous figure of 0.4%.

USD - Retail Sales m/m (High Impact)

The monthly Retail Sales report tracks changes in the total value of retail sales and is crucial for assessing economic health. It reflects consumer spending, which is a major component of overall economic activity. An 'Actual' figure surpassing the 'Forecast' is typically viewed positively for the currency, as it indicates stronger consumer activity. Also known as Advance Retail Sales, this report is a key indicator for understanding economic trends and consumer behavior.

In June 2024, U.S. retail sales remained flat compared to May, despite Wall Street's prediction of a 0.3% decline amidst signs of economic slowing. This stagnation followed an upward revision of May's sales to a 0.3% increase from an initial 0.1%. Sales at gasoline stations dropped by 3%, and auto sales declined by 2.3%, with sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores also seeing a slight decrease of 0.1%. However, gains were noted in nonstore retailers (1.9%), building materials (1.4%), health and personal care stores (0.9%), and various other categories. Excluding gasoline, sales rose by 0.2%, while the control group, which factors into GDP and excludes volatile categories, surged by 0.9%, the largest increase since April 2023. This data suggests consumer spending remains resilient, which could ease concerns about economic slowdown and affect future Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.

TL;DR

Category	Change in Sales
Overall Retail Sales	Flat (0% change)
Gasoline Stations	-3.0%
Auto Sales	-2.3%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Books, Music	-0.1%
Nonstore Retailers	+1.9%
Building Materials	+1.4%
Health and Personal Care Stores	+0.9%
Sales Excluding Gasoline	+0.2%
Control Group (important for GDP)	+0.9%

The forecast for Retail Sales month-over-month stands at 0.4%, compared to the previous figure of 0%.

USD - Unemployment Claims (High Impact)

Unemployment claims track the number of people filing for unemployment insurance for the first time each week. When the actual figure is lower than the forecast, it is considered positive for the currency. Traders pay attention to this metric because, while it is a lagging indicator, it provides valuable insights into economic health. Since consumer spending closely follows labor-market conditions, changes in unemployment claims can influence monetary policy decisions.

Unemployment claims in the U.S. dropped to a seasonally adjusted 233,000 for the week ending August 3, a decrease of 17,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 250,000. The four-week moving average rose slightly to 240,750, reflecting an uptick in claims. Despite the decline in initial claims, continuing claims for unemployment insurance increased by 6,000 to 1.875 million, marking the highest level since November 2021. The four-week average for continuing claims also reached its highest point since November 2021, rising to 1.862 million. The insured unemployment rate remained steady at 1.2%.

TL;DR

Data Point	Value
Initial Claims (Current Week)	233,000
Change in Initial Claims	Decrease of 17,000
Initial Claims (Previous Week)	250,000
4-Week Moving Average (Initial)	240,750
Continuing Claims	1.875 million
Change in Continuing Claims	Increase of 6,000
4-Week Moving Average (Continuing)	1.862 million
Insured Unemployment Rate	1.2%

The forecast for Unemployment Claims is projected to be 236,000, compared to the previous outcome of 233,000.

USD - Empire State Manufacturing Index (Medium Impact)

The Empire State Manufacturing Index is a diffusion index derived from a survey of approximately 200 manufacturers in New York State, assessing their perception of general business conditions. Released monthly around the middle of the month, the index serves as a leading indicator of economic health, reflecting businesses' rapid response to market conditions. Values above 0.0 signify improving conditions, while values below indicate deterioration. An 'Actual' reading that exceeds the 'Forecast' is typically viewed as positive for the currency. This index, also known as the New York Manufacturing Index, offers valuable insights into future economic activities such as spending, hiring, and investment, helping traders gauge the economic environment.

Business activity in New York State continued its modest decline in July 2024, according to the latest Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The general business conditions index remained relatively stable at -6.6. New orders stayed flat, and shipments saw a slight increase. Delivery times shortened, and supply availability was unchanged, while inventories decreased. The labor market showed ongoing weakness, with employment contracting further and work hours holding steady. Input prices rose modestly, with only minor increases in selling prices. Despite these challenges, firms remained cautiously optimistic about future conditions, with 41 percent of respondents expecting improvements in the next six months, though employment growth and capital spending plans remained subdued.

TL;DR

General Business Conditions: Continued modest decline in New York State in July 2024; index stable at -6.6.
New Orders: Remained flat.
Shipments: Slight increase observed.
Delivery Times and Supply: Shortened delivery times; supply availability unchanged.
Inventories: Decreased.
Labor Market: Further contraction in employment; work hours steady.
Prices: Modest rise in input prices; minor increases in selling prices.
Future Outlook: Cautiously optimistic; 41% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months.
Employment and Capital Spending: Plans for both remain subdued.

The forecast for the Empire State Manufacturing Index stands at -5.9, compared to the prior figure of -6.6.

USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index (Medium Impact)

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index is a monthly diffusion index published on the third Thursday, derived from a survey of approximately 250 manufacturers in the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. A reading above 0.0 signifies improving conditions, whereas a reading below 0.0 suggests deteriorating conditions. Traders closely watch this index because a reading higher than forecast is considered favorable for the currency, indicating better economic health. The survey responses offer early insights into future economic activities like spending, hiring, and investment.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Index surged to 13.9 in July 2024, marking a significant rise from June’s reading of 1.3 and surpassing expectations of 2.9. This uptick reflects an expansion in the region's manufacturing sector, as evidenced by positive movements in key areas: the shipments index leaped to 27.8 from a previous -7.2, the new orders index improved dramatically to 20.7 from -2.2, and the employment index turned positive at 15.2, reversing from -2.5 the prior month. Additionally, both indexes for prices paid and prices received showed continued increases, indicating sustained price pressures. The report also highlighted optimistic future projections, with most future activity indicators suggesting an expectation for sustained growth in the manufacturing sector over the next six months.

TL;DR

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Index rose sharply to 13.9 in July 2024 from 1.3 in June, exceeding forecasts of 2.9.
This increase indicates an expansion in the region's manufacturing activities.
Key improvements include:
- Shipments index jumped to 27.8 from -7.2.
- New orders index rose significantly to 20.7 from -2.2.
- Employment index turned positive, reaching 15.2 after a previous -2.5.
Both prices paid and received indexes increased, suggesting ongoing price pressures.
Future activity indicators remain positive, projecting continued growth in the manufacturing sector for the next six months.

The forecast for the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index stands at 5.4, compared to the previous outcome of 13.9.

The Core Retail Sales month-over-month, Retail Sales month-over-month, Unemployment Claims, Empire State Manufacturing Index, and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are scheduled for release on Thursday at 12:30 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 15, 2024

16th August 2024

Friday

On August 16th, the United Kingdom is set to release its monthly Retail Sales data, offering key insights into consumer spending trends. Following this, attention will shift to the United States, where Building Permits data will be released, providing an important indicator of future construction activity. Later in the day, the University of Michigan will publish its preliminary Consumer Sentiment index and Inflation Expectations, which are closely watched for signals on consumer confidence and future inflation trends.

GBP - Retail Sales m/m (High Impact)

The UK's Retail Sales data, released monthly by the Office for National Statistics, measures consumer spending by tracking sales volumes. Higher-than-expected figures are seen as positive for the Pound Sterling, indicating strong economic activity, while lower readings are viewed negatively. Traders closely watch this data as it is a key indicator of economic health.

In June 2024, UK sales volumes experienced a 1.2% decline following a 2.9% rise in May 2024, with annual volumes down 0.2% and 1.3% below pre-pandemic levels from February 2020. The overall sales volume for Q2 2024 fell by 0.1% compared to Q1 2024. Non-food store sales dropped by 2.1% in June, reversing a 3.3% gain in May, with significant decreases in department stores, clothing, footwear, and furniture due to election uncertainty, poor weather, and low footfall. Food store sales fell by 1.1% in June and 1.3% in Q2, primarily driven by supermarkets. Online spending decreased by 2.7% in June but was up 2.3% compared to June 2023, while the total spend decreased by 1.3%, reducing the online sales proportion from 27.5% in May to 27.1% in June.

TL;DR

June 2024 Sales Volumes: Decreased by 1.2%
May 2024 Sales Volumes: Increased by 2.9%
Annual Sales Volumes: Down by 0.2%
Sales Volumes vs Pre-Pandemic Levels (Feb 2020): 1.3% lower
Q2 2024 vs Q1 2024 Sales Volumes: Declined by 0.1%
Non-Food Store Sales (June 2024): Dropped by 2.1% after a 3.3% rise in May
- Key Sectors Affected: Department stores, clothing, footwear, furniture
Food Store Sales (June 2024): Fell by 1.1%
Food Store Sales (Q2 2024): Decreased by 1.3%, driven mainly by supermarkets
Online Spending (June 2024): Declined by 2.7% but increased by 2.3% compared to June 2023
Total Spend (June 2024): Decreased by 1.3%
Online Sales Proportion: Dropped from 27.5% in May to 27.1% in June

The forecast for month-over-month Retail Sales shows a 0.6% increase, compared to the previous outcome of -1.2%.

The upcoming Retail Sales month-over-month report will be released on Friday at 6:00 AM GMT.

USD - Building Permits (Medium Impact)

The Building Permits metric represents the annualized count of new residential building permits issued in the previous month. If the actual number exceeds the forecast, it is typically positive for the currency. This metric is important to traders because it serves as a strong indicator of future construction activity, with permits being one of the first steps in the building process.

In June 2024, U.S. building permits rose by 3.9% to an annualized rate of 1.454 million, the highest in three months and surpassing preliminary estimates. Permits for buildings with five or more units saw a significant increase of 20.7% to 466,000, while single-family authorizations declined by 1.8% to 939,000. Regional permit activity varied, with notable increases in the Midwest and the South. Meanwhile, housing starts edged up by 3.0% to 1.353 million, although this figure was still 4.4% lower than a year ago. Housing completions, however, surged by 10.1% from May to 1.710 million, marking a 15.5% year-over-year increase, driven by growth in both single-family homes and multi-unit buildings.

TL;DR

Category	June 2024 Data
Building Permits	3.9% increase to 1.454 million (annualized rate)
Permits for 5+ Units	20.7% increase to 466,000
Single-Family Permits	1.8% decrease to 939,000
Regional Permit Activity	Notable increases in the Midwest and the South
Housing Starts	3.0% increase to 1.353 million
Year-over-Year Housing Starts	4.4% decrease
Housing Completions	10.1% increase to 1.710 million
Year-over-Year Housing Completions	15.5% increase

The forecast for Building Permits is 1.43 million, compared to the previous figure of 1.45 million.

The next Building Permits data is scheduled for release on Friday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (Medium Impact)

The Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment measures the level of a composite index based on a survey of about 500 consumers who rate current and future economic conditions. A result that exceeds forecasts is generally favorable for the currency, as consumer confidence serves as a leading indicator of future spending. Traders care about this data because consumer spending drives a significant portion of economic activity, and shifts in sentiment can impact market expectations and currency values.

In July 2024, the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index was revised upwards to 66.4 from the preliminary figure of 66.0, though it remains at its lowest level in eight months. This upward revision, while modest, indicates a slight improvement in consumer outlook compared to the initial reading. The index, which gauges overall consumer confidence, reflects a small but noteworthy adjustment in sentiment, suggesting that consumers' views on future economic conditions and personal finances were slightly more positive than initially reported. However, despite this revision, the sentiment index still highlights ongoing concerns about high prices and economic uncertainty, contributing to the fourth consecutive monthly decline in consumer confidence.

TL;DR

Time Period: July 2024
Index Name: University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index
Revised Index Value: 66.4 (up from 66.0)
Index Trend: Lowest level in eight months
Upward Revision: Indicates a slight improvement in consumer outlook
Current Sentiment: Slightly more positive than initially reported
Economic Concerns: Ongoing issues with high prices and economic uncertainty
Monthly Trend: Fourth consecutive monthly decline in consumer confidence

The forecast for Michigan Consumer Sentiment is projected at 66.7, up from the previous reading of 66.4.

The preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report is scheduled for release on Friday at 2:00 PM GMT.

USD - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations (Medium Impact)

The Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations Measures track the anticipated percentage change in prices for goods and services over the next 12 months as projected by consumers. Generally, if the 'Actual' measure exceeds the 'Forecast,' it is considered positive for the currency. Traders closely monitor this indicator because expectations of future inflation can influence actual inflation; for example, if people expect prices to rise, they might seek higher wages, which can contribute to inflation. This data is collected from a survey of around 500 consumers, who provide their expectations for price changes in the coming year.

In a recent preliminary report by the University of Michigan, consumer inflation expectations for the next year dropped to 2.9%, marking a decline for the second consecutive month. This figure aligns with consumer expectations for the annual rise in costs over the next 5 to 10 years, which also adjusted downward from the previous month's projections. Despite this slight ease in anticipated inflation, the overall sentiment among consumers remains dim, fueled by persistent frustrations over high prices affecting their financial well-being and standard of living. This sentiment reflects a broader concern about inflation despite recent data indicating a cooling in price increases.

TL;DR

University of Michigan's preliminary report shows consumer inflation expectations for the next year at 2.9%.
Expectations for inflation over the next 5 to 10 years have also adjusted downward from the previous month.
This marks the second consecutive month of declining inflation expectations.
Despite easing inflation expectations, overall consumer sentiment remains dim.
Consumers are still concerned about high prices affecting their financial well-being and standard of living.

The forecast for Michigan Inflation Expectations is projected to be 2.9%, unchanged from the previous outcome of 2.9%.

The next Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment and Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations reports are scheduled for release on Friday at 2:00 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 19, 2024

20th August 2024

Tuesday

On Tuesday, key economic indicators will be released from several major economies. China is set to announce its 1- to 5-year Loan Prime Rate early in the day, which could provide insights into the country's monetary policy direction. Later, attention will shift to the Eurozone, where the year-on-year Inflation Rate is expected to be published, offering a glimpse into the region's price stability. Finally, Canada will release its own Inflation Rate, rounding out a day of significant economic data that could influence global markets.

CNY - 1-y Loan Prime Rate (Medium Impact)

On August 17th, 2019, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) switched its primary lending benchmark to the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), replacing the older one-year rate. The LPR, adjusted monthly based on contributions from 18 banks and their liquidity costs from PBOC operations, aims to better reflect market conditions and enhance monetary policy effectiveness. Although the PBOC's Monetary Policy Committee meets quarterly, the LPR's monthly adjustments directly influence the Renminbi's (CNY) value. Despite these changes, the CNY remains pegged to the U.S. dollar, maintaining controlled fluctuations influenced by the PBOC's strategic decisions.

In a bid to bolster its slowing economy, China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), cut the seven-day reverse repo rate and other short-term borrowing costs on Monday, marking the first reduction in nearly a year. Alongside these moves, Chinese banks lowered their key benchmark lending rates, including the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which now stands at 3.35%. This adjustment, aimed at reducing borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans, follows a disappointing lack of short-term stimulus from a major Communist Party meeting. The LPR cut underscores the authorities' urgency to stimulate economic activity amidst the slowest growth pace in over a year. Despite the PBOC's efforts, the impact of these modest reductions is expected to be limited, with analysts suggesting that more substantial fiscal measures will be necessary to drive significant economic improvement.

TL;DR

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), cut the seven-day reverse repo rate and other short-term borrowing costs to stimulate the economy.
This is the first reduction in these rates in nearly a year.
Chinese banks also lowered key benchmark lending rates, including the one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR), which is now at 3.35%.
The rate cuts are intended to reduce borrowing costs for mortgages and other loans.
These measures follow a major Communist Party meeting that did not deliver expected short-term economic stimuli.
The reduction in the LPR is a response to the slowest economic growth pace China has seen in over a year.
Despite these efforts, analysts believe the impact of these rate cuts will be limited and more substantial fiscal measures are needed to significantly boost the economy.

The 1-year Load Prime rate forecast remains unchanged at 3.35%, consistent with the previous figure.

CNY - 5-y Loan Prime Rate (Medium Impact)

The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is a key benchmark interest rate established by the People's Bank of China to guide short-term lending rates, influencing monetary policy. It reflects the rate at which commercial banks lend to prime customers and is derived from a weighted average of lending rates from 18 major banks. Traders closely monitor changes in the LPR as short-term interest rates play a crucial role in currency valuation, often outweighing the impact of other economic indicators, serving as a significant predictor of future rate movements.

In a bid to stimulate economic growth amidst sluggish activity, China’s central bank has unexpectedly cut its seven-day reverse repo rate, marking its first reduction in nearly a year. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) announced this cut on Monday, alongside a reduction in the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 3.85%, reflecting a coordinated effort to make borrowing more affordable and counteract the economic slowdown. This adjustment aims to support mortgage borrowing and other long-term loans, particularly given the ongoing deflation and subdued economic momentum. While the cut is a step towards easing financial conditions, analysts caution that the impact may be limited, and substantial fiscal measures will be necessary to achieve the government's growth target of around 5% for 2024. The PBOC’s actions, which include adjustments to other key interest rates, are part of a broader strategy to navigate economic challenges and support the yuan amid global rate trends.

TL;DR

China’s central bank, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), has unexpectedly reduced its seven-day reverse repo rate.
This marks the first such reduction in nearly a year.
Alongside this, the PBOC also lowered the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) to 3.85%.
These moves are aimed at making borrowing more affordable to help counteract a slowdown in economic growth.
The rate cuts are intended to support mortgage borrowing and other long-term financing needs.
These measures come as China faces ongoing deflation and sluggish economic momentum.
Analysts believe that while these rate cuts will ease financial conditions, they may have a limited impact.
Further substantial fiscal measures might be necessary to meet the government’s growth target of around 5% for 2024.
The PBOC’s adjustments to interest rates are part of a broader strategy to support the economy and the yuan amid global interest rate trends.

The forecast for the 5-year Loan Prime Rate suggests it will remain unchanged at 3.85%, consistent with the previous outcome.

The 1-5 Loan Prime Rate release is set to be released on Tuesday at 1:15 AM GMT.

EUR - Inflation Rate y/y Final (Medium Impact)

The final Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-over-year measures the change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers. Typically, when the 'Actual' CPI is greater than the 'Forecast,' it is considered favorable for the currency. This is because consumer prices account for the majority of overall inflation, which is a critical factor in currency valuation. Rising prices often prompt the central bank to raise interest rates in order to fulfill their mandate of containing inflation.

Inflation in the Euro Area unexpectedly rose to 2.6% in July 2024, up from 2.5% in June, defying expectations of a slowdown to 2.4%. The increase was driven by a sharp rise in energy prices and a quicker uptick in non-energy industrial goods. Meanwhile, inflation eased for services and food, alcohol, and tobacco. Core inflation, excluding volatile items like food and energy, remained steady at 2.9%, slightly higher than predicted. Among the largest Eurozone economies, inflation picked up in Germany, France, and Italy, but decreased in Spain.

TL;DR

Overall Inflation: Rose to 2.6% in July 2024 from 2.5% in June, above the expected 2.4%.
Primary Drivers:
- Sharp increase in energy prices.
- Faster rise in non-energy industrial goods prices.
Areas of Easing:
- Inflation for services.
- Inflation for food, alcohol, and tobacco.
Core Inflation:
- Held steady at 2.9%, above predictions.
Regional Variations:
- Inflation increased in Germany, France, and Italy.
- Inflation decreased in Spain.

The inflation rate year-over-year is forecasted to reach 2.6%, up from the previous outcome of 2.5%.

The year-over-year inflation rate is set to be released on Tuesday at 9:00 AM GMT.

CAD - Inflation Rate y/y (High Impact)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Canada, released monthly by Statistics Canada, measures price changes by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. A higher CPI reading is generally positive for the Canadian Dollar, while a lower reading is negative. The most significant components of the CPI basket are Shelter (30%), Transportation (17%), and Food (16%). The CPI basket is updated every four years based on household spending patterns, with the current weights reflecting data from 2002.

Canada's annual inflation rate eased to 2.7% in June 2024, down from 2.9% in May, defying market expectations that it would remain at 2.9%, a level matching the three-year low seen in April. This decrease aligns with the Bank of Canada's (BoC) forecast that CPI inflation would hover around 3% in the first half of the year, continuing the disinflation trend in consumer prices. The most significant drop was seen in transportation costs, which fell to 2% from 3.5% in May, driven by a sharp slowdown in gasoline prices (0.4% vs. 5.6%), following OPEC’s gradual phase-out of production cuts. Shelter inflation also eased slightly (6.4% vs. 6.2%) as the BoC's rate cuts and lower bond yields helped to reduce mortgage rates and rental market pressures. However, food prices saw an acceleration, rising to 2.8% from 2.4%, driven by more expensive groceries. Despite the overall disinflation, the trimmed mean core inflation rate remained steady at 2.9%, largely due to the significant impact of gasoline prices.

TL;DR

Category	June 2024 Rate	May 2024 Rate	Notable Changes
Overall Inflation	2.7%	2.9%	Decrease from May, below market expectations
Transportation Costs	2.0%	3.5%	Sharp decrease, mainly due to lower gasoline prices (0.4% vs 5.6%)
Gasoline Prices	0.4%	5.6%	Significant slowdown following OPEC’s production phase-out
Shelter Inflation	6.2%	6.4%	Slight decrease due to BoC rate cuts and lower bond yields
Food Prices	2.8%	2.4%	Increase driven by more expensive groceries
Trimmed Mean Core Inflation	2.9%	2.9%	Remained steady, influenced significantly by gasoline prices

The forecast for the year-over-year Inflation Rate is projected at 2.5%, compared to the previous outcome of 2.7%.

CAD - Inflation Rate m/m (High Impact)

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the month-over-month change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers. A higher-than-expected CPI is typically favorable for a currency, as it suggests rising consumer prices, which constitute a significant portion of overall inflation. Inflation is crucial to currency valuation because it often prompts the central bank to raise interest rates to manage inflation. The CPI is derived by sampling the average prices of various goods and services and comparing them to the previous period's prices.

In June 2024, Canadian consumer prices saw a surprising dip of 0.1%, marking the first monthly decline of the year, contrary to market predictions of a 0.1% increase. This decrease was primarily influenced by a significant 11.1% reduction in travel tour costs and a 3.1% fall in gasoline prices. Although the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped slightly, it still managed a 0.1% rise on a seasonally adjusted basis. This shift in consumer prices reflects a volatile market, particularly in sectors directly impacted by fluctuating oil prices and tourism trends.

TL;DR

Category	June 2024 Data
Consumer Price Index (CPI)	-0.1% (monthly decline)
Market Prediction	+0.1% (expected increase)
Travel Tour Costs	-11.1%
Gasoline Prices	-3.1%
Seasonally Adjusted CPI	+0.1% (increase)
Market Reflection	Volatile, impacted by oil prices and tourism trends

The inflation rate forecast for month-over-month is expected to be 0.4%, compared to the previous outcome of -0.1%.

CAD - Median CPI y/y (High Impact)

The Median CPI year-over-year measure tracks the annual change in the median price of consumer goods and services. An 'Actual' result that surpasses the 'Forecast' is generally favorable for the currency, as consumer prices play a crucial role in overall inflation. Rising inflation often leads central banks to raise interest rates to control it. This measure is calculated by comparing sampled average prices of goods and services to those from the previous period.

In May, Canada’s median Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.6 percent compared to the same month last year, coming in slightly below the market expectations of 2.7 percent. This marks a modest decrease from the previous month's increase of 2.8 percent. Historically, the CPI Median has seen fluctuations, peaking at 5.00 percent and dipping to a low of 0.90 percent, reflecting the ongoing variability in inflationary pressures across the country.

TL;DR

Category	Details
May CPI Median (YoY)	2.6%
Market Expectations	2.7%
Previous Month's CPI	2.8%
CPI Median Historical Peak	5.00%
CPI Median Historical Low	0.90%
Trend	Modest decrease from previous month, ongoing variability in inflationary pressures.

The year-over-year forecast for the Median CPI is projected at 2.5%, a slight decrease from the previous figure of 2.6%.

CAD - Trimmed CPI y/y (High Impact)

The Trimmed CPI y/y measures the annual change in consumer prices, excluding the most volatile 40% of items. A higher-than-forecasted value is typically positive for the currency, as consumer prices are a major component of inflation, which influences central bank decisions on interest rates. This measure is derived by comparing the average prices of goods and services to those from the previous period.

In June, Canada's trimmed-mean core inflation rate held steady at 2.9%, surpassing market expectations which had anticipated a rate of 2.8%. This measure, which is the Bank of Canada's preferred indicator for assessing underlying inflation, plays a crucial role in guiding the monetary policy decisions aimed at managing economic stability in the nation.

TL;DR

Category	Details
Month	June
Country	Canada
Trimmed-Mean Core Inflation Rate	2.9%
Market Expectations	2.8%
Bank of Canada's Preferred Indicator	Yes
Role in Monetary Policy	Guides decisions for managing economic stability

The projected year-over-year Trimmed CPI is forecasted at 2.8%, a slight decrease from the previous figure of 2.9%.

Canada's inflation figures are scheduled for release on Tuesday at 12:30 PM GMT.

MiloPlexyTrade · Aug 21, 2024

22nd August 2024

Thursday

On Thursday, a series of key economic indicators will be released, starting early in Japan with the Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data. This will be followed by similar reports from France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US. In addition, the US will release its weekly unemployment claims and existing home sales data. The Eurozone will also unveil its latest Consumer Confidence figures. As the day progresses, New Zealand is set to release its quarterly Retail Sales data, and Japan will conclude the day with the publication of its year-on-year Core CPI and CPI figures.

JPY - Flash Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), issued monthly by Jibun Bank and S&P Global, assesses business conditions in Japan's manufacturing sector based on surveys of senior executives. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 50 indicating expansion (bullish for the Japanese Yen), and below 50 suggesting contraction (bearish for the Yen). This data helps predict trends in GDP, industrial production, employment, and inflation.

Japan's manufacturing sector experienced a setback in July 2024, with the au Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI revised down to 49.1 from a preliminary 49.2, marking a decline from June's 50.0. This dip signals the first contraction in factory activity since April and the fifth overall this year, driven by a significant reduction in new orders and the sharpest decline in output in four months. Despite this, employment in the sector increased for the fifth consecutive month, even as backlogs of work continued to fall, reflecting spare capacity. Input cost inflation surged to its highest since April 2023 due to rising labor, logistics, oil, and raw material prices, although output cost inflation eased to a four-month low as companies sought to stay competitive. Business confidence, however, remained strong, fueled by optimism about a recovery in domestic and global demand.

The projected Flash Manufacturing PMI stands at 49.8, an increase from the previous reading of 49.1

JPY – Flash Services PMI

The au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI, compiled by S&P Global, surveys service sector companies across various industries, including consumer services (excluding retail), transport, communication, finance, real estate, and business services. The headline figure, the Services Business Activity Index, measures monthly changes in business activity, with a reading above 50 indicating growth and below 50 indicating contraction. This index is comparable to the Manufacturing Output Index.

In July 2024, the au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI was revised to 53.7 from an initial estimate of 53.9, reflecting a return to expansion after June's contraction at 49.4. This improvement, the sixth expansion this year, was driven by increased customer numbers and demand, with new orders seeing the most significant rise in three months and employment growth exceeding the long-term average. However, the sector faced challenges as foreign orders declined for the first time this year, marking the steepest drop since June 2022. Inflation pressures persisted as input costs, including fuel, labor, and logistics, remained high, leading firms to pass these costs onto clients through increased pricing. Despite these pressures, business confidence improved, buoyed by expectations of new store openings and client acquisitions enhancing future order volumes and customer engagement.

The Flash Services PMI forecast is set at 54, reflecting an increase from the previous reading of 53.7

The Japanese Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI will be released on Thursday at 12:30 AM GMT.

EUR – French Flash Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), provided by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is an essential indicator for France's manufacturing sector, which plays a significant role in the national GDP. This index reflects the business conditions within the sector, with a PMI score above 50 signaling optimistic economic prospects and bullish market conditions for the Euro, while a score below 50 indicates bearish conditions potentially harmful to the currency. Traders closely monitor the PMI because it acts as a leading economic health indicator, with purchasing managers offering timely and pertinent insights into market conditions and the company's economic expectations.

In July 2024, France's manufacturing sector experienced its most significant contraction since January, with the HCOB France Manufacturing PMI dropping to 44 from 45.4 the previous month, a slight downward revision from the initial estimate of 44.1. This downturn marks the 18th consecutive month of declines, exacerbated by a sharp reduction in new orders—the fastest in six months—due to faltering demand. Production continued its downward trajectory for the 26th consecutive month, with the capital goods sector facing the most severe cutbacks. Employment rates also declined rapidly, reaching the fastest drop since March as companies did not renew temporary contracts and cut back on work backlogs. Additionally, input costs surged to their highest in 18 months, pushing selling prices up slightly as manufacturers offered discounts to remain competitive. This economic backdrop has dampened business confidence, eroding further after a brief recovery earlier in May.

The forecast for the Flash Manufacturing PMI stands at 44.4, compared to the previous value of 44.0.

EUR - French Flash Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), assesses business conditions in France's services sector, which constitutes a significant portion of the country's GDP. This index is a critical gauge of France's overall economic health, with a PMI reading above 50 indicating bullish conditions for the Euro, while a reading below 50 suggests bearish prospects. Traders closely watch this index as it serves as a leading economic indicator, with purchasing managers offering timely and relevant insights into the company's economic outlook.

In July 2024, the HCOB France Services PMI reached 50.1, marking a slight improvement from June's 49.6 and indicating stability after two months of decline. This performance, which was slightly below the expected 50.7, was influenced by increased activity associated with the Olympic Games and the conclusion of the election period. These factors helped to balance out tough selling conditions, resulting in steady output levels. Employment in the service sector continued its upward trend, extending over three and a half years. Despite this, new business volumes decreased due to ongoing uncertainties in French politics, affecting new order volumes. Input costs escalated, recording the highest increase in three months, driven by rising operational expenses. Business confidence waned, continuing its downward trajectory for the fourth month and staying significantly below average historical levels.

The forecast for the Flash Services PMI stands at 50.2, compared to the previous value of 50.1.

The French Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI is scheduled for release on Thursday at 7:15 AM GMT.

EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released monthly by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), serves as a leading indicator of business activity in Germany's manufacturing sector, based on surveys of senior executives. It reflects month-to-month changes and can anticipate trends in GDP, industrial production, employment, and inflation. As Germany is Europe's main manufacturing hub, its PMI is also a key indicator for the broader continent. A PMI above 50 signals expansion and is bullish for the Euro, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction, seen as bearish for the currency. Traders value this index as it offers timely insights into economic health and market conditions.

Germany's manufacturing sector continues to face significant challenges, with the HCOB Manufacturing PMI for July 2024 revised slightly higher to 43.2, still indicating a sharp contraction for the 25th consecutive month. Key areas such as output, new orders, and employment have declined further due to weak demand, despite signs of cost stabilization as input prices fell at the slowest rate in 18 months. However, rising freight rates have offset some of the relief from lower raw material costs. Confidence among manufacturers remains low, with experts like Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia from Hamburg Commercial Bank predicting that a recovery is unlikely before autumn.

The projected German Flash Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 43.4, slightly above the previous reading of 43.2.

EUR – German Flash Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released monthly by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a key indicator of business activity in Germany’s services sector. Based on surveys of senior executives in the sector, the PMI reflects changes in business conditions compared to the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, signaling a positive outlook for the Euro (EUR), while a reading below 50 suggests contraction, which is bearish for the EUR. As a leading indicator, it provides valuable insights into economic trends, including GDP, employment, and inflation. Traders closely monitor the PMI as it offers early signals of economic health.

Germany's service sector saw a notable deceleration at the beginning of Q3 2024, as the HCOB Flash Services PMI dropped to 52.5 in July, down from 53.1 in June. This decline highlights a weakening in new business inflows, alongside a reduction in staffing levels after a sustained period of job creation over the past six months. Input cost inflation in the sector ticked up slightly, but the increase in prices charged by businesses was the softest observed in over three years, suggesting a more cautious pricing approach in response to subdued demand. Despite these challenges, there was a slight improvement in overall business sentiment, supported by a rebound in confidence within the services sector.

The projected Flash Services PMI stands at 52.3, slightly down from the previous value of 52.5.

The upcoming Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI is scheduled for release on Thursday at 7:30 AM GMT.

EUR - Flash Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing PMI, released monthly by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a key indicator of the Eurozone's manufacturing sector's health. It ranges from 0 to 100, with readings above 50 signaling expansion and below 50 indicating contraction, influencing the Euro's strength. Traders watch this index closely as it offers early insights into economic trends like GDP, industrial production, and inflation.

In July 2024, the HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI remained at 45.8, unchanged from June's year-to-date low and slightly revised upward from the preliminary estimate of 45.6. This marked a continuation of the weak momentum in the Eurozone's manufacturing sector, with the overall decline in activity driven by worsening conditions in major economies despite some slower contractions elsewhere. New orders contracted for the 14th consecutive month, forcing factories to rely on backlogs to sustain output. The lower demand led to significant job cuts, marking the sharpest decline in employment this year, alongside reduced purchasing and inventory levels. Although supplier delivery times improved for the sixth consecutive month, the pace of improvement slowed. Meanwhile, input cost inflation surged to an 18-month high, but factories hesitated to pass on these costs to clients, while confidence among manufacturers remained low, signaling a difficult outlook for the sector.

The expected Flash Manufacturing PMI is forecasted at 45.7, slightly down from the previous figure of 45.8.

EUR - Flash Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released monthly by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), measures business activity in the Eurozone services sector. It's a key economic indicator, reflecting changes in the services economy through surveys of senior executives. The PMI scale ranges from 0 to 100, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction, which respectively suggests bullish or bearish implications for the Euro (EUR). This index is crucial for traders as it provides up-to-date insights into economic conditions and can predict trends in GDP, employment, and inflation.

In July 2024, the HCOB Eurozone Services PMI decreased to 51.9, marking the slowest expansion in the services sector since March and falling below market expectations of 52.9. This decline from June's figure of 52.8 reflects a cooling in services activity over four months, attributed mainly to softer domestic demand despite stronger foreign client interest. The sector continued to grow for the sixth consecutive month, supported by new orders and a reduction in backlogs, but firms reduced the pace of hiring to the lowest rate this year due to moderated capacity demands. Additionally, input price inflation intensified due to higher costs for staffing and materials, though firms were cautious in adjusting their output charges due to weaker demand. Business confidence also declined slightly, reaching a six-month low, continuing a downward trend from May's peak.

The forecast for the Flash Services PMI is 51.7, compared to the previous outcome of 51.9.

The Eurozone Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI is set to be released on Thursday at 8:00 AM GMT.

GBP - Flash Manufacturing PMI

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply and S&P Global is a crucial monthly indicator for the UK's manufacturing sector, derived from surveys of senior executives. It gauges changes in business activity, predicting shifts in GDP, industrial production, employment, and inflation. The index operates on a 0-100 scale; readings above 50 indicate sector expansion (positive for the Pound Sterling), while below 50 suggests contraction (negative for the currency). Traders value the PMI for its immediate insights into economic health provided by purchasing managers.

In July 2024, the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI surged to 52.1, surpassing the initial estimate of 51.8 and marking the highest expansion since July 2022. This growth was driven by a significant acceleration in production, reaching a peak not seen in over two years, coupled with a tentative stabilization in new export orders. The uplift in manufacturing spanned consumer, intermediate, and investment goods sectors, with firms increasing their workforce for the first time in nearly two years. However, the sector faced escalating input costs, leading to the highest inflation rate in 18 months, which in turn caused manufacturers to hike their selling prices to the steepest since May 2023. Amid these challenges, manufacturers' optimism remained robust, climbing to the second-highest level observed in the past two and a half years.

The estimated Flash Manufacturing PMI remains steady at 52.1, unchanged from the previous reading.

GBP - Flash Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), issued monthly by the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply and S&P Global, is a vital indicator of the UK's services sector health. Ranging from 0 to 100, a PMI above 50 indicates sector expansion, boosting the Pound Sterling (GBP), while below 50 suggests contraction, negatively impacting GBP. This index is closely watched by traders as it provides real-time insights into economic conditions from the perspective of purchasing managers.

In July 2024, the S&P Global UK Services PMI saw a slight increase to 52.5, up from 52.1 the previous month, a revision from an initial estimate of 52.4 and in line with early market predictions. This marked the ninth consecutive month of expansion in the UK services sector. This uptick stands in contrast to the slower growth rates observed in fellow Eurozone countries. The UK experienced its highest surge in new business since May 2023, attributed to strong ongoing demand and successful acquisition of new domestic and international clients. This surge in demand prompted service providers to expand their workforce at the quickest rate since the previous June. However, work backlogs continued to shrink, marking the fourteenth month of this trend. Regarding prices, both the cost of inputs and the prices charged by businesses neared their lowest levels since the onset of the Covid pandemic. Future business confidence reached a peak not seen in the past five months.

The projected Flash Services PMI is 52.8, an increase from the previous reading of 52.5.

The Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI is scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 AM GMT.

USD - Unemployment Claims

Initial Jobless Claims track the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time in a week, serving as an early indicator of U.S. economic health. While the impact on the market can vary, a higher than expected number is usually seen as negative for the USD, and a lower than expected number as positive. Traders monitor these figures closely as they reflect labor market conditions, which are directly linked to consumer spending and are crucial for shaping monetary policy.

In the week ending August 10, U.S. initial jobless claims fell by 7,000 to 227,000, defying market expectations of a rise to 236,000 and marking the second consecutive weekly decline since late July's near one-year high of 250,000. The decrease to the lowest level in five weeks challenges recent data suggesting a slowdown in the labor market, potentially giving the Federal Reserve more flexibility in its monetary policy without jeopardizing inflation control efforts. Meanwhile, continuing claims also fell by 7,000 to 1,864,000, contrary to expectations of an increase, with the four-week moving average for initial claims declining by 4,500 to 236,500.

The forecast for Unemployment Claims is projected at 232,000, an increase from the previous figure of 227,000.

The next release of the Unemployment Claims data is scheduled for Thursday at 12:30 PM GMT.

USD - Flash Manufacturing PMI

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a crucial monthly indicator for the US manufacturing sector, derived from surveys of senior executives. It measures business activity, with a score above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 signifying contraction. This data helps predict trends in GDP, industrial production, employment, and inflation, and significantly influences the US Dollar's value. Traders value it as a leading economic health indicator, reflecting immediate market conditions from a managerial perspective.

The S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI dropped to a 2024 low of 49.6 in July, slightly up from an initial estimate of 49.5, yet still signaling contraction within the sector. This period saw a decrease in new orders, marking a downturn in demand, although continued production was supported by handling backlogged orders and high stock replenishment. Employment also weakened, aligning with broader economic challenges. Despite rising costs for energy, freight, labor, and materials, output prices grew minimally, the slowest in a year, with overall inflation easing to a four-month low. Nevertheless, manufacturers remain cautiously optimistic, expecting a recovery in business conditions and new orders post-presidential election.

The forecast for the Flash Manufacturing PMI suggests a slight decline to 49.5 from the previous figure of 49.6.

USD - Flash Services PMI

The S&P Global Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is a crucial monthly indicator for the US services sector, which constitutes a significant portion of the economy. This index is derived from surveys of senior executives in private sector service companies, reflecting month-over-month changes in business activity. A PMI reading above 50 suggests expansion in the services sector, positively influencing the US Dollar, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction, which could negatively impact the currency. Traders value this data as it serves as a leading indicator of economic health, providing insights from purchasing managers who have timely and relevant perspectives on market conditions.

In July 2024, the S&P Global US Services PMI was adjusted downward to 55 from an initial estimate of 56, indicating a continued but slightly slower expansion compared to June's figure of 55.3. This growth was fueled by a steady increase in new business for the third month running and a modest uptick in international orders, marking the first rise in six months. Additionally, this increase in new business led companies to expand their workforce. However, despite a faster rise in input costs, service providers raised their prices at a more moderate rate due to competitive challenges. Although optimism in the sector waned to an eight-month low, service providers were still positive about future business prospects, buoyed by increased marketing efforts, recent cuts in interest rates, and improved demand post-Presidential Election.

The expected forecast for the Flash Services PMI is 54, down from the previous reading of 55.

The Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI is set to be released on Thursday at 1:45 PM GMT.

EUR - Consumer Confidence

The Consumer Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) in the Euro Area measures consumer confidence on a scale from -100 (extreme pessimism) to 100 (extreme optimism), with 0 indicating neutrality. Based on phone surveys of 23,000 households across the Eurozone, the ESI assesses views on the current economic and financial situation, savings intentions, inflation expectations, and major purchases of durable goods. Traders pay close attention to this indicator as financial confidence is a key predictor of consumer spending, which drives a significant portion of overall economic activity.

In July 2024, consumer confidence in the Euro Area rose by 1 percentage point from the previous month to -13, the highest level since February 2022, in line with preliminary estimates. This steady improvement since February is likely influenced by the European Central Bank's rate cut in June, with further cuts anticipated later this year. Additionally, the easing of political tensions in France after the parliamentary elections contributed to the positive sentiment. Across the broader European Union, consumer confidence increased by 0.7 points to -12.2, reflecting gains in all key components, including household financial expectations, views on the general economic situation, and major purchase intentions.

The Consumer Confidence forecast remains unchanged at -13, consistent with the previous measurement.

The Consumer Confidence report is scheduled for release on Thursday at 2:00 PM GMT.

USD - Existing Home Sales

The Existing Home Sales report measures the monthly change in the annualized number of existing residential buildings sold, serving as a key indicator of the U.S. housing market's strength and overall economic health. A higher-than-expected reading is viewed as positive for the USD, while a lower-than-expected reading is seen as negative. Traders pay attention to this report because home sales trigger a wide-reaching economic ripple effect, including renovations, mortgage sales, and broker commissions, making it a crucial leading indicator of economic activity.

Existing-home sales in the U.S. declined by 5.4% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.89 million, marking a similar 5.4% drop from the previous year, according to the National Association of REALTORS. Despite this decline, the median existing-home sales price hit a record high for the second consecutive month, rising 4.1% year-over-year to $426,900. Inventory of unsold homes increased by 3.1% from May and 23.4% from last year, reaching a 4.1-month supply, the highest level in over four years. All four major U.S. regions experienced sales declines, with price gains noted across all regions.

The forecast for Existing Home Sales is projected to be 3.89 million, down from the previous figure of 3.93 million.

The Existing Home Sales report is set to be released on Thursday at 2:00 PM GMT.

NZD - Retail Sales q/q

Retail Sales q/q measures the change in inflation-adjusted retail sales in New Zealand, a key indicator of consumer spending, which drives much of the country's economic activity. A higher-than-expected result is positive for the New Zealand dollar, as it suggests stronger consumer demand that could lead to higher inflation. This, in turn, may prompt the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) to raise interest rates to control inflation. The data is released approximately six weeks after the end of the quarter.

New Zealand's retail sector showed signs of resilience in the first quarter of 2024, with retail sales rising by 0.5% from the previous quarter, defying expectations of a 0.3% decline and marking a positive shift after two years of continuous drops. This quarter's performance ends a streak of eight consecutive quarters of decline, highlighting a modest recovery in the retail landscape. The uptick was driven by gains in several key industries; food and beverage services saw a notable increase of 2.2%, while sales in motor vehicle and parts retailing went up by 1.1%. Additionally, recreational goods and accommodation sectors also reported significant jumps, increasing by 4.7% and 4.1%, respectively. Despite these gains, the annual comparison shows that retail spending is still down by 2.4% from the previous year, though this is an improvement from the 4.1% decrease recorded in the first quarter of 2023. This suggests that while the sector is on a recovery path, it still faces challenges in regaining its pre-pandemic strength.

The forecast for Retail Sales q/q stands at -0.1%, down from the previous result of 0.5%.

The upcoming Retail sales q/q is set to be released on Thursday at 10:45 PM GMT.

JPY - National Core CPI y/y

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), published monthly by the Statistics Bureau of Japan, tracks the price changes of goods and services purchased by households nationwide, excluding fresh food due to its weather-related price volatility. The year-over-year (YoY) figure compares prices in the reference month to those from the same month the previous year. Typically, a higher CPI reading is viewed as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a lower reading is considered bearish.

In June 2024, Japan's core consumer price index, which omits fresh food prices but includes fuel costs, saw a 2.6% increase from the previous year, marking an acceleration from May's 2.5% rise. This ongoing increase underscores a sustained inflationary trend, as the core inflation rate in Japan has consistently exceeded 2% for over two years. Although the June figures slightly missed the market expectations of a 2.7% rise, they have strengthened the anticipation that the Bank of Japan might increase interest rates in its upcoming late July meeting. This possibility follows the BOJ's significant policy shift in March, when it raised interest rates for the first time since 2007, moving away from eight years of negative interest rates in response to rising wages and persistent high inflation.

The expected year-over-year Core CPI is forecasted to be 2.7%, up from the previous reading of 2.6%.

JPY – CPI y/y

The National Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which measures the year-over-year change in the prices of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding fresh food, has shown a positive economic trend. Released monthly, usually on the third Friday of the following month, the latest figures reveal that the 'Actual' CPI has exceeded 'Forecast' expectations. This is seen as beneficial for the national currency, indicating a stronger economy. Economists and market analysts closely monitor these figures to assess inflation trends and consumer purchasing power, highlighting the index's significance in economic analysis and policymaking.

In June 2024, Japan's annual inflation rate remained steady at 2.8% for the second consecutive month, marking the highest level since February. Despite a slight reduction in electricity price hikes (13.4% compared to 14.7% in May), the cost of gas increased by 2.4%, a notable shift from a 2.5% decrease in the previous year, coinciding with the end of energy subsidies. Inflation persisted across various sectors: food prices rose by 3.6%, transportation costs increased to 2.5%, and furniture and household items jumped to 3.7%. Notably, culture and recreation experienced a significant increase to 5.6%. Communication also saw a sharper rise at 1.3%. Meanwhile, education prices continued to decline, falling by 1.0% for the third month in a row. The core inflation rate accelerated to 2.6%, its highest in three months, fueling speculation about potential interest rate hikes by Japan's central bank. On a monthly basis, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 0.3%, a slowdown from May's 0.5%, which was the fastest in seven months.

The forecast for CPI y/y is 2.9%, up from the previous outcome of 2.8%.

The upcoming Core CPI y/y and CPI y/y data is scheduled for release on Thursday at 11:30 PM GMT.

News Announcement & Chart Analysis by PlexyTrade

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