Pre-Open US

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Stock futures were higher Friday as traders assessed the latest corporate earnings results, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tried to stretch its winning streak to 10 sessions. S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%, and Nasdaq-100 futures ticked up 0.5%.
Corporate earnings have been mixed thus far. Seventy-three percent of S&P 500 companies that have already reported exceeding analysts’ expectations, according to FactSet data. However, that beat rate is below a three-year average of 80%, according to The Earnings Scout.
Netflix Inc. and Tesla Inc. climbed in pre-market trading. Both stocks led the Nasdaq 100 Index to sharp losses on Thursday on the back of results that disappointed investors. American Express Co. fell almost 3% in the premarket after missing revenue forecasts.
Regional Banks were higher in premarket trading on Friday, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) up more than 9% since Monday.
The Nasdaq technically started a correction after touching an important resistance level and came back by 2.3% yesterday. Next support is around the 15250 level.
USOIL:The prices have increased by 8.2% since the beginning of the month. This rise can be attributed to several factors, including Saudi Arabia's decision to implement a voluntary export cut of one million barrels per day for July and August, along with Russia's own cuts and tighter quotas for other OPEC+ members. However, these cuts come at a time when developed economies are slowing down due to rising interest rates, which is affecting the demand for oil.
China, as the top importer, has also played a role in keeping prices below the 2023 high of US$83.26 per barrel reached in mid-April. The weak growth in China has been a contributing factor. Nevertheless, the country is taking measures to stimulate its economy, such as introducing support measures for car and electronics purchases. However, it remains uncertain whether these steps will result in immediate increased demand.
Despite the efforts of the two biggest exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia, there is still limited evidence that the cuts are significantly reducing the excess inventory. For instance, the United States reported a decrease in inventories of only 0.7 million barrels last week, which was less than expected.
In summary, the oil price surge can be attributed to export cuts by major oil-producing countries, slowing growth in developed economies, and weak demand in China. While China is trying to boost its economy through support measures, the impact on immediate demand remains uncertain. Furthermore, there are indications that the cuts made by Saudi Arabia and Russia may not be leading to substantial inventory drawdowns.
WTI crude oil is once again approaching the 77-resistance level, posing a challenge for WTI to sustain its momentum towards the next target of 79. Furthermore, on a weekly basis, the 200MA is acting as a barrier at the 77 mark.
Crypto:

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline on Friday, with digital assets continuing to perform worse than the stock market. This trend is concerning for the overall sentiment towards cryptocurrencies.
Market data suggests that unpredictable sellers are putting downward pressure on crypto prices, which is different from the stock market, where investor optimism and positive sentiment have been driving stocks higher in recent weeks. Although cryptocurrencies and stocks are distinct, some Bitcoin enthusiasts view the decoupling of token and equity prices as a positive aspect. Nevertheless, both asset types remain sensitive to risks and have shown similar dynamics this year, especially in response to interest rate and recession concerns.
In an unexpected turn of events, Tesla, the electric vehicle and clean energy company, has removed Bitcoin from the source code of its payment page. Surprisingly, Dogecoin remains unaffected by this change. This development has triggered speculation among cryptocurrency enthusiasts, particularly due to Tesla's previous involvement with both cryptocurrencies.
Technically, Bitcoin (BTC) continue experiencing a range-bound price action formation, with the resistance level at 31,800 and the support level at 29,900. Traders are paying close attention to the weekly chart, specifically watching for a potential breakout above the 100-day moving average (100MA). A successful breakout above this level has the potential to drive the price towards the initial resistance at 36,000.

 

[Amadeus.V]

About Nasdaq, I am waiting for a bearish trend, after it breaks below 1546.5; I will wait for a retest of this exact price and then enter shorty.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Investors are expecting a quarter percentage point increase in rates from the Federal Reserve after its meeting on Wednesday. Their focus will be on Chair Jerome Powell's comments, seeking insights into the central bank's approach to handling the economy for a smooth landing. A majority of economists polled by Reuters still expect this will be the last increase of the current tightening cycle, after data this month showed signs of disinflation, eliminating the need for the Fed to lift rates further and supporting the thesis that has helped buoy stocks in recent weeks.
In the upcoming week, there will be a surge in earnings results, particularly on Thursday, which will be the busiest day. Approximately 40% of the Dow and 30% of the S&P 500 companies will be presenting their financial updates. Notable companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta are among those reporting. Additionally, significant pharmaceutical, industrial, and big oil companies are also preparing to release their reports, making it a crucial week for these sectors.

Before trading begins on Monday, exchange operator Nasdaq NDAQ will trim the weight of a handful of companies that make up close to half of the Nasdaq 100. Nasdaq describes the Nasdaq 100 as a "modified market capitalization-weighted index," with company weights depending on their stock market value, while also applying rules to limit the influence of the largest stocks in the index.
The Nasdaq is currently undergoing a correction, heading towards the next support level around 15,250. If it breaks below 15,250, it may further decline towards the median line at approximately 14,750.




USOIL:

Oil prices have experienced a fourth consecutive weekly increase due to indications of tightness in global markets. Notably, Russian supply has been declining, with crude oil shipments from the country dropping to a six-month low in the four weeks leading up to July 16. This has positively affected market sentiment. Additionally, the risks of supply disruptions have risen following Ukraine's warning that any ships heading to Russian ports may be considered military targets.
Investors have factored in quarter-point interest rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank for this week. As a result, all eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde to gain insights into potential future rate increases.
The rise in interest rates has had a dampening effect on investments and has also strengthened the value of the US dollar. Consequently, dollar-denominated commodities have become more expensive for holders of other currencies.
In China, the state planner recently introduced measures aimed at stimulating private investment in certain infrastructure sectors. Additionally, there are plans to reinforce financing support for private projects. Market participants anticipate that Beijing will implement targeted stimulus measures to support its slowing economy, which is likely to boost oil demand in the world's second-largest consumer.
WTI crude oil has broken the $77 resistance level, opening the door for WTI to sustain its momentum towards the next target of $79. Furthermore, on a weekly basis, the 200MA is acting as a barrier at the $77 mark. The Black Sea is home to a major Russian oil terminal.




Crypto:

On Monday, the prices of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced a decline, and traders were closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's upcoming monetary-policy decision this week. Despite the global launch of a new cryptocurrency co-founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, the overall sentiment in the sector remained subdued.
Adding to the cryptocurrency landscape, another token made its debut on Monday. Worldcoin, a cryptocurrency project aiming to establish a digital "proof of personhood" through eye-scanning technology in response to the growing presence of artificial intelligence, officially launched. Notably, the project has the backing of Sam Altman, renowned for his leadership role in OpenAI, the developer of ChatGPT.
Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange, announced its intention to list the Worldcoin token. However, it's worth noting that the token is not yet available in the United States, owing to regulatory uncertainties surrounding the crypto industry.
Technically, Bitcoin (BTC) break the 29700-support level that was holing for one month and taking price toward the next target at 28000.

 

[zForex]

Earnings Season, Federal Reserve Decision, Oil Prices, and Cryptocurrency Fluctuations

US INDICES:


The S&P 500 futures registered a modest increase of 0.1%, and the Nasdaq-100 futures showed a more substantial climb of 0.3%. General Motors experienced a rise of over 1% in its shares after raising its full-year earnings guidance. General Electric also saw a significant 4% increase, fueled by stronger-than-expected revenue in the second quarter.
The positive earnings season has contributed to the ongoing market rally. However, market participants are anxiously anticipating the Federal Reserve's policy decision, scheduled for Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 98% probability of a quarter-point hike in the Fed funds futures data. Investors are particularly interested in hearing Chair Jerome Powell's economic outlook and how the Federal Reserve plans to address the issue of inflation.
After the market closes, there are high-profile technology companies, Alphabet and Microsoft, slated to announce their quarterly results. This announcement will be closely watched by Wall Street. Additionally, July's consumer confidence data will be another key factor to consider in the market's assessment.
The Nasdaq is currently undergoing a correction, heading towards the next support level of around 15,250. If it breaks below 15,250, it may further decline toward the median line at approximately 14,750.





USOIL:

There are signs of supply tightening that have been bolstering prices, primarily attributed to the output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allied producers, which are now coming into effect. In July, Russia's exports reached a six-month low, and ship tracking data suggests reduced shipments from OPEC producers.
Moreover, the bank reported that refinery profitability has reached its highest level since March, thanks to increased demand during the summer driving season.
In China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, leaders have made commitments to enhance economic policy support. However, there has been a contraction in business activity in the Eurozone, which exceeded expectations in July, as per a survey.
Regarding the United States, a closely watched survey indicated that business activity had slowed to a five-month low in July. However, the survey also showed that input prices were declining, and hiring was slowing down, suggesting that the Federal Reserve might be making progress in its efforts to control inflation. Market expectations during that week indicated 25-basis-point rate hikes from both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank.
WTI crude oil has reached the resistance level at $79 and is currently undergoing correction. The next potential support level might be the previous resistance at $77. The overall trend appears to be healthy and positive, with a potential target of $80 seeming feasible.




Crypto:


Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies experienced price fluctuations as investors awaited the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision. Notably, Dogecoin witnessed a significant surge in value as traders speculated on its potential integration into Elon Musk's plans for expanding his X social-media platform.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. The main point of interest is not whether there will be a 25 basis points (bps) increase in the benchmark borrowing cost, but rather whether this hike will signal the end of a 16-month tightening cycle that was partially responsible for the crypto market crash last year.
Interestingly, Bitcoin's performance may not be heavily influenced by the Fed's communication or Wall Street sentiment. Over the past 90 days, the correlation between Bitcoin and stocks has weakened. Nonetheless, it's important to remember that correlations are backward-looking indicators and can change rapidly.
Technically, Bitcoin (BTC) broke the 29700-support level that was holding for one month, taking the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also help the price find support there. After that, the 27300 level will be the next support, located at the lower parallel of the actual long bullish channel.

 

[zForex]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise, Earnings Season Highlights, USOIL and Crypto Trends
US INDICES:​

EURUSD

The S&P 500 futures showed a rise of 0.56%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a 0.98% increase.
During the ongoing earnings season, Procter & Gamble, a member of the Dow, saw its shares gain more than 1.1% in premarket trading on Friday. The consumer goods company, known for brands like Tide, surpassed analysts' expectations for both earnings and revenue in its latest quarter.
Intel's stock surged by over 7% as investors celebrated the company's return to profitability. Similarly, Roku's shares climbed by 8% after surpassing Wall Street's expectations for both revenue and profit.
However, Ford Motor's shares dropped approximately 1.4%, despite the automaker beating estimates and raising its guidance. The decline was attributed to the company reporting delays in its electric vehicle adoption due to higher costs.
Investors also took note of the June data for the personal consumption expenditures price index. The data indicated that the core PCE had a month-over-month increase of 0.2%, in line with economists' expectations polled by Dow Jones, which also holds particular significance after the central bank's expected decision to raise interest rates earlier in the week. The Federal Reserve aims to maintain an annual inflation target of 2%.
The Nasdaq is currently undergoing a correction but finding support around the 15400-support level, heading towards the next support level of around 15,250. If it breaks below 15,250, it may further decline toward the median line at approximately 14,750.​

Oil

Surprisingly, the growth in the US gross domestic product accelerated, and pending home sales in the US increased in June. This reinforces the argument for a smooth economic transition after a period of aggressive rate hikes.
Additionally, the Chinese government committed to supporting households by subsidizing spending on automobiles, household goods, tourism, and sports.
On the supply side, there are signs of tightening as evidenced by the declining US inventories and Saudi Arabia's voluntary cut of 1 million barrels per day. Commerzbank analysts emphasized that this month might have witnessed OPEC oil production reaching its lowest level since the autumn of 2021.
WTI crude oil continues the bullish trend toward the fifth week of gains. The momentum is strong and a breakout of the 80 resistance level seems close to next target at 81.3.
​

Bitcoin:

Bitcoin's current investor sentiment remains neutral, leaving the market at a critical decision point. Following a recent sharp decline, the cryptocurrency stabilized around $29,000 and briefly showed signs of potential recovery when the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. However, the subsequent surge lost momentum, and if indecisiveness persists in the coming days, Bitcoin stagnation may endure, with potential moves in either direction unlikely to be sustained for long.
Recently, the U.S. Congress embarked on its first-ever markup for digital asset legislation to establish clear jurisdiction for the nation's chief market regulators. The bill, however, faced resistance from Democrats who viewed it as overly favorable to the crypto industry, resembling the stance advocated by FTX boss Sam Bankman-Fried. The movement towards regulating the crypto industry in the USA appears to be imminent, especially given the recent remarks from Jerome Powell acknowledging the industry's importance in the finance sphere and its significant presence. Additionally, the awaited legislation from Europe is expected to further enhance the credibility and adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Technically, Bitcoin (BTC) broke the 29700-support level that was held for one month, taking the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also help the price find support there. After that, the 27300 level will be the next support, located at the lower parallel of the actual long bullish channel.​

 

[zForex]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise, Oil Prices Surge, Bitcoin's Calm Phase
US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures registered a 0.1% increase, while Nasdaq-100 futures experienced a slight decline. The S&P has risen by 3% in July, marking its fifth consecutive positive month, a streak not seen since the seven-month period ending in August 2021. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite has also performed well, gaining 3.8% this month, achieving its fifth straight winning month.
Wall Street is currently benefiting from a favorable combination of factors, including disinflation, peak interest rates, and consistent growth trends. The ongoing earnings season has exceeded forecasts, propelling stocks to their highest levels in over a year, further bolstering the positive sentiment.
This week will be busy with more earnings reports, including notable companies like Apple Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. Additionally, there are key economic data releases, such as the US July non-farm payroll numbers, which may offer insights into the future direction of interest rates.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The Bullish long channel technically needs a correction after the actual rally.
​

USOIL:

Oil prices are poised to register their largest monthly gains in over a year, thanks to the anticipation that Saudi Arabia will extend voluntary output cuts into September and tighten the global supply. Analysts, including Goldman Sachs, and oil executives like ExxonMobil's CEO Darren Woods, predict that demand will remain resilient and reach a record high in the coming months. Additionally, the market foresees Saudi Arabia and OPEC+ leaders extending their 1 million bpd production cut into September. The Kingdom is currently reducing production by 1 million bpd in July and August, along with an additional 500,000 bpd reduction as part of the OPEC+ cuts that began in May. Russia is also committed to a 500,000-bpd cut in August oil exports, and signs indicate that Russian crude shipments are already declining. Furthermore, the macroeconomic sentiment has improved, as evident from the recent U.S. inflation data showing a slowdown in price increases. China is expected to support its economy after experiencing slower-than-expected growth in the second quarter.
WTI crude oil making a new breakout of the last resistance level at 81.3 and going toward the next target at 83.5. The 83.5 target will be a real challenge for WTI as it represents a historical resistance level from 22 November.​

Crypto:

According to the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be going through its calmest market phase since January. This period of low volatility is unusual for the cryptocurrency market. While some people believe that Bitcoin is overdue for a decline, data indicates that buying pressure is returning to current levels. Additionally, there is a potential long-term bull flag expected to confirm on the monthly close, which could be positive for Bitcoin bulls.
During this quiet macro week, attention is shifting to other potential price triggers for the crypto market. Cointelegraph is examining major topics that could influence the markets in the coming days and beyond.
Following a startling disclosure by CEO Brian Armstrong, the share price of Coinbase, the Nasdaq-listed crypto exchange, dropped by over 10%. The reason behind this decline was a controversial request from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) before the lawsuit against Coinbase. The SEC demanded that Coinbase cease trading all cryptocurrencies except for Bitcoin.

Technically, Bitcoin broke the 29700-support level that was holding for one month, taking the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also help the price find support there. After that, the 27300 level will be the next support, located at the lower parallel of the actual long bullish channel. The relevance of this is that because Bitcoin is rarely quiet for such long periods, the likelihood of a volatile move either way increases.​

 

[zForex]

Merck and Caterpillar Earnings Exceed Expectations, Oil Prices Near 3-Month Highs, Bitcoin Network Faces Investor Inflow Challenges


US INDICES:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures both experienced losses, with the former losing 0.3% and the latter losing 0.5%. Pharmaceutical giant Merck reported a loss less than anticipated and exceeded revenue expectations, thanks to strong Keytruda sales. Consequently, Merck's shares increased by 1%. On the other hand, Caterpillar also reported earnings and revenue beyond expectations, but its stock remained flat.
Pfizer's results were mixed as Covid product sales plummeted, while Uber's numbers were also mixed but resulted in a surprise profit, leading to a more than 4% increase in its shares before the bell.
Over 160 S&P 500 constituents are scheduled to report their latest quarterly results this week. More than half of the companies in the broad market index have already reported, with 80% posting earnings beats, according to FactSet.
On Tuesday, economic indicators, including job openings and labor turnover numbers from June and the July manufacturing purchasing managers’ index, will also be released.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The bullish long channel technically needs a correction after the actual rally.​

USOIL:

Oil near 3-month highs as tight supply and second-half demand growth takes center stage. West Texas Intermediate crude futures at $81.53, down 27 cents from its highest settlement since April 14. Analysts warn of potential correction risk due to overbought markets. A positive outlook emerges as central banks boost confidence in major economies. US fuel demand is at its highest level since August 2019, while China seeks to boost recovery momentum. Eurozone manufacturing contracts in July, OPEC+ meeting to discuss supply cuts. BP's chief predicts a strong outlook for oil prices in the coming months and years. All those factors are affecting right now Oil price, but the supply side continues to be the most influential factor from them all.
WTI crude oil was corrected from the $82 level, and the next support could be around the $80 area. The long-term trend remains bullish, and the next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.​

Crypto:
The Bitcoin (BTC) network is currently experiencing a decline in inflows, which may suggest a lack of new investors or a pause in investments from existing holders. Both factors are essential to maintain price stability and trigger positive price movement. A decrease in network inflows often indicates reduced market interest, potentially leading to a drop in price. Notably, institutional investors, who have played a significant role in Bitcoin's growth, are also seen halting their inflows into the network. This aligns with the market's lowered expectations of a Bitcoin ETF approval, which was anticipated to be a major bullish catalyst for Bitcoin.

From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin broke the 29700-support level that was holding for one month, taking the price towards the next target at 28000, where the 100MA may also help the price find support there. After that, the 27300 level will be the next support, located at the lower parallel of the actual long bullish channel. The relevance of this is that because Bitcoin is rarely quiet for such long periods, the likelihood of a volatile move either way increases.

 

[zForex]

Markets React to Fitch Rating Downgrade and Mixed Earnings Reports; Oil Prices Surge Amid OPEC's Production Cuts and Bitcoin Sees a Turnaround

US INDICES:

During Tuesday's trading session, S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures declined by 0.9% and 1.1% respectively. Fitch Ratings downgraded the U.S.'s long-term foreign currency issuer default rating to AA+ from AAA, citing an anticipated fiscal deterioration over the next three years. On the positive side, Advanced Micro Devices saw a 1% rise in extended trading due to better-than-expected quarterly results, while SolarEdge Technologies experienced a 12% drop after missing second-quarter revenue expectations.
August started with a lackluster first day of trading in the S&P 500, which fell by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite declined by 0.43%. However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to add 71.15 points or 0.2%, reaching its highest level since February 2022 at one point during the session.
Earnings season is progressing well, with about 82% of S&P 500 companies reporting positive surprises according to FactSet data. This trend has boosted bullish investor sentiment and continued the market's recovery since the third quarter began.
Traders are anticipating the July ADP jobs report on Wednesday before the open. Economists expect a 175,000 increase, which would be lower than the 497,000 rise in the prior month.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The bullish long channel technically needs a correction after the actual rally.​

USOIL:

OPEC's oil production has decreased due to voluntary cuts by Saudi Arabia and the suspension of crude oil loadings at Nigeria's Forcados terminal due to a leak risk. In July, the group pumped 840,000 barrels per day less than in June, leading to a rise in oil prices, with Brent reaching $85 per barrel and WTI approaching $82 per barrel.
The main concerns now are how high oil prices will rise before OPEC starts rolling back the cuts and whether they can increase production quickly if needed. Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at $90 per barrel to support its ambitious public spending plans under the Vision 2030 diversification program. However, if prices climb too high, it could dampen demand and have adverse effects.
Nigeria, Angola, and Libya have struggled to meet their OPEC quotas, while U.S. shale production growth has slowed down.
China's strong oil demand further supports the market, with imports at near-record levels and rising oil storage.
The decision on how long Saudi Arabia will maintain its voluntary cuts will significantly impact the oil market. Meanwhile, Russia is drilling for oil at record levels, potentially providing additional supply to temper prices.
Technically, the price of WTI continues its bullish momentum, and the long-term trend remains positive. The next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.
​

Crypto:

MicroStrategy, the largest publicly traded holder of Bitcoin (BTC), has returned to profitability in Q2. Overcoming a $1 billion impairment charge from the previous year's cryptocurrency market downturn, the Virginia-based company reported net earnings of $22.2 million, a significant improvement compared to the previous year's loss of over $1 billion. Former CEO Michael Saylor's bet on Bitcoin proved successful as the cryptocurrency rebounded, lifting the company's financials. MicroStrategy plans to raise to $750 million via share sales for general corporate purposes, including more Bitcoin purchases, working capital, and potentially repurchasing debt. Recently, the company bought an additional 467 Bitcoins, bringing their total holdings to an impressive 152,800 BTC.
The impact on the Bitcoin price was significant, and currently, BTC is trading around the 30,000 area. The improvement in sentiment appears to be temporary, as the market requires more bullish news and further developments to sustain positive momentum.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.​

 

[zForex]

Tech Stocks React to Earnings Reports, Oil Prices and Supply Conditions, Bitcoin and MicroStrategy's Strategy ​

US INDICES:

Futures tied to the S&P 500 fell 0.3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.5%.
Chipmaker Qualcomm lost 8% after the company missed analysts’ expectations on fiscal third-quarter revenue and guidance for the current period. DoorDash added 3.6% after beating expectations on revenue, while Moderna gained on a boosted Covid vaccine outlook.
Tech leader Apple and e-commerce giant Amazon are slated to report after the close. Thus far, nearly 67% of the constituents in the S&P 500 have issued their latest quarterly reports, with about 81% of those companies beating expectations, according to FactSet.
Wall Street also assessed the latest economic data, including in-line weekly jobless claims. Productivity data also showed an uptick in the second quarter.
Nasdaq corrected from 15400 but 15900 a resistance level keeps being the challenge for any new higher highs. The bullish long channel technically is having the first signals of possible correction after the double top pattern formed.​

USOIL:

As the OPEC+ panel prepares to meet on Friday, all attention is focused on Saudi Arabia's production plans. Although OPEC+ is unlikely to change its current policy, Saudi Arabia may signal its intention to continue its 1 million bpd unilateral cut. Analysts believe Saudi Arabia will extend the cut into September to maintain market stability. The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is not expected to recommend changes to the current supply. Oil prices had a brief dip after a sell-off prompted by Fitch downgrading the U.S. Long-Term Ratings, but they quickly recovered.
Highlighting tighter supply conditions, the Energy Information Administration reported that US crude inventories fell by 17 million barrels last week, marking the largest drop in US crude inventories since records dating back to 1982.
From a technical standpoint, the price of WTI continues its bullish momentum, and the long-term trend remains positive. The next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.
​

Crypto:

According to Michael Saylor, the co-founder and former CEO of MicroStrategy, the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs would not have any impact on the company's existing Bitcoin strategy. He believes that MicroStrategy's unique "Bitcoin operating strategy" distinguishes it from spot Bitcoin ETFs because the company can leverage its position as an operating company, unlike ETFs. Saylor sees spot ETFs as beneficial for the crypto industry as they attract institutional investors and provide liquidity.
MicroStrategy has applied with the SEC to sell up to $750 million in Class A common stock, intending to use the funds to acquire more Bitcoin and repay debts. Saylor's confidence in Bitcoin has proven to be successful, as MicroStrategy has become one of the largest holders of cryptocurrency. Since adopting Bitcoin in 2020, MicroStrategy's stock has surged by 254%, outperforming many key assets and big tech stocks.
Technically, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.​

 

[zForex]

Bill Ackman's Surprise Move: Shorting Treasury Bills and Predicting Yield Rise to 5.5% - Implications for Bitcoin and Crypto Market
​

US INDICES:

Futures tied to the tech-heavy index and S&P 500 futures remained relatively stable. After the closing bell on Thursday, a flood of earnings reports prompted significant movements in individual stocks. Amazon's stock surged by 8.7% after surpassing profit expectations and providing positive guidance. On the other hand, Apple's stock declined around 2.3% as its revenue fell short of the year-ago quarter's results.
Apart from the major tech companies, Airbnb's stock declined due to slower growth in nights and experiences booked, disappointing Wall Street's expectations. However, DraftKings experienced a 12% increase in its stock price, exceeding analysts' predictions.
According to FactSet, around 79% of S&P 500 companies have released their results, with approximately 80% of them surpassing Wall Street's expectations during this earnings season.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones are anticipating a 200,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls for July, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain steady at 3.6%. Additionally, economists expect average hourly wages to rise by 0.3% from June and 4.2% on an annualized basis.
Nasdaq formed a double top and is now at its support level of 15350. A breakout may take the price down toward 15000 followed by 14000.​

USOIL:

The bank noted that Saudi Arabia warned of possible additional extensions or deeper output cuts. Russia also announced an extension of its voluntary cut into the next month but at a reduced rate of 300,000 barrels per day. These announcements were made prior to the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers. In this meeting, they will assess the impact of the ongoing production agreement.
Additionally, Russia mentioned that it would further reduce its oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day. During the same time, there was a reported drone attack on the Russian Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, a significant hub for their oil exports. However, it remained unclear if the port itself had suffered any damage.
From a technical standpoint, the price of WTI continues its bullish momentum, and the long-term trend remains positive. The next challenge will be breaking the historical resistance level at $82.60 in December 2022.



Crypto:

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman has surprised the financial world by shorting 30-year treasury bills and predicting yields to rise to 5.5%. He believes this move will act as a hedge against long-term rates' impact on stocks in an inflationary environment. However, not everyone agrees with his perspective, as some think his views may already be priced into the market.
The implications of this move on Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market are uncertain due to divergent opinions and the link between Bitcoin and bond yields. Here are some potential scenarios:
1. Yields Rise Significantly: If Ackman's prediction comes true and yields rise significantly, it may indicate a greater risk appetite among investors, potentially driving up Bitcoin's price. Additionally, Bitcoin could attract more investment as an inflation hedge.
2. Yields Remain Stable or Fall: Lower yields might lead investors to safer assets, potentially impacting Bitcoin's prices negatively. On the other hand, stable or falling yields could signal high liquidity conditions, potentially supporting Bitcoin's price.
3. Market Uncertainty Increases: If uncertainty rises due to fiscal policy concerns or rapid bond market repricing, Bitcoin might serve as a hedge and attract more investment. Technically, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.​

 

[Amadeus.V]

Wow, btc is looking totally bearish to me. just look at the strong support that was lost at around 29500, I think it will not be a surprise to see it on 28000, even 27000 in a few days.

 

[zForex]

Stock Futures Rise, Oil Faces Resistance, Bitcoin's Low Volatility Signals Re-Accumulation
US INDICES:
NASDAQ

The S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose approximately 0.3% and 0.4%, respectively. This marks the start of the latest phase of a corporate earnings season, which has generally been viewed as surpassing expectations. According to FactSet, approximately 80% of companies within the S&P 500 that disclosed their quarterly outcomes have outperformed Wall Street's projections.
As the week progresses, investors will turn their attention to the release of July's consumer and producer price index data. These indicators are closely monitored as they provide insights into inflation trends and the overall state of the economy.
Nasdaq is forming a double top and currently testing its support level at 15250. If there's a breakout, the price may decline towards 15000, and subsequently 14000.
​

USOIL:

After posting a sixth consecutive weekly gain oil reached an important resistance level challenged for the last 9 months after a boost from the supply side led by Saudi Arabia.
On the supply side, Saudi Arabia's announcement of a voluntary production cut of 10 million barrels per day to the end of September and Russia cutting oil exports by 300,000 barrels per day also helped reach the actual level. Also, the attack of a Ukrainian Naval drone on a Russian vessel spread elevated risk in the black sea especially Russian Oil exports impacting forcedly oil supplies.
Technically, WTI touched a historical level at 83 dollars and waiting for a possible reversal or a breakout. The next support will be the 80 and if a breakout happens the 83.5 will be the next resistance.
​

Crypto:

In recent weeks, Bitcoin's price volatility has reached historically low levels, as the BTC price has mainly traded between $29,000 and $30,000. However, beneath this calm appearance, several intriguing market dynamics are unfolding. According to Checkmate, the lead on-chain analyst at Glassnode, the realized volatility for Bitcoin has dropped to historical lows across 1-month to 1-year timeframes. This is the quietest period observed since March 2020. Historically, such low volatility aligns with the post-bear-market hangover periods, indicating a re-accumulation phase.​

Bitcoin

In addition to the low volatility, there is another significant development worth noting. Checkmate pointed out that Bitcoin's long-term holder supply has reached a new all-time high, standing at 14.59 million BTC, which represents 75% of the circulating supply. This surge in long-term holders indicates that a growing number of Bitcoin investors are confident in a future rally, resulting in a supply shortage. On the other hand, the lack of volatility is driving high-risk traders out of the market.
Technically, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.

 

[zForex]

Declines in Futures, Banking Sector Impact, Bitcoin ETF Speculation, and Oil Price Concerns

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both experienced a 0.5% decline. Bank shares saw a widespread decrease following Moody’s credit rating downgrade for multiple banks, which included M&T Bank and Pinnacle Financial. Additionally, the Bank of NY Mellon and State Street are under review by the credit agency for potential downgrades.
Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase displayed lower premarket trading. The premarket performance of the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE) showed a 2.3% slip, while the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) dipped by 2%. In the midst of earnings season, UPS shares fell by over 5% as the delivery company reported Q2 revenue below expectations and revised its full-year revenue projection.
Nasdaq is forming a double top and currently testing its support level at 15250. If there's a breakout, the price may decline towards 15000, and subsequently 14000.
​

USOIL:

Oil prices dropped over 2.7% as new data revealed China's July imports and exports fell significantly more than anticipated. This adds to concerns about the sluggish post-COVID recovery for the world's top oil importer. China's July oil imports plummeted by 18.8% from the previous month, hitting the lowest daily rate since January. Imports overall shrank by 12.4%, and exports declined by 14.5%. Despite this, some analysts expect China's fuel demand to improve from August to early October due to increased construction and manufacturing activities. Saudi Arabia and Russia's oil output cuts are also influencing the market.
From a technical perspective, WTI is undergoing corrections and has reached the resistance level within the 83 territory. Following its dip to the 80-support level, the subsequent target lies at 79, succeeded by 77.​

Crypto:

Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, suggests that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) could potentially approve several spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) simultaneously instead of granting approval to individual firms. This viewpoint contrasts with the prevailing expectation that Wood's firm might be among the first to receive approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF. She shared her insight in an interview with Bloomberg, stating, "I think the SEC, if it's going to approve a Bitcoin ETF, will approve more than one at once."
The prospect of SEC approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF has garnered significant attention within the crypto community and regulatory circles. Many companies competing for approval have previously submitted applications, only to encounter rejections that highlight apprehensions about the industry's maturity and vulnerability to price manipulation.
The Bitcoin market has entered a notably stable phase recently, leading to decreased volatility across various metrics. Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, examined this low volatility period in its report "Volatility Crush." The report indicates that current volatility aligns with spot prices.
Technically, Bitcoin came back to its last support at the 30,000 level. A breakout of this level is necessary for any sustained short-term trend. The actual price action shows a rejection of the 30,000, and a possible comeback is more probable towards first the 28,800 support and followed by the 28,000.​

 

[zForex]

CPI Data Impact on Bitcoin and Emerging Trends in Oil and Stock Futures

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures both increased by 0.6% and 0.7% respectively. The latest update on the Consumer Price Index is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones anticipate a 0.2% growth in July's CPI compared to the previous month, with a year-over-year increase of 3.3%.
Many individuals on Wall Street are anticipating further indications of disinflation from the CPI report and the producer price index to be released on Friday. Some regional manufacturing figures have also displayed signs of easing, as pointed out by Sahak Manuelian, the head of equity trading at Wedbush Securities.
In addition to the CPI, initial jobless claims and hourly earnings for July will be published on Thursday. On another note, Disney's stock rose by 1.4% after revealing an upcoming price adjustment for ad-free Disney+ subscriptions. The media conglomerate also announced better-than-expected earnings per share for the fiscal third quarter. Conversely, Six Flags saw a decline of 3.5% following a report that was worse than expected.
As of Thursday morning, over 90% of S&P 500 companies have disclosed their earnings for the quarter. Among these, around four-fifths have surpassed Wall Street's expectations, as reported by FactSet.
Nasdaq is forming a double top and currently testing its support level at 15250. If there's a breakout, the price may decline towards 15000, and subsequently 14000.
​

USOIL:

Recent days have seen a boost in oil prices due to Saudi Arabia and Russia extending output cuts. This has been accompanied by concerns about supply, driven by the potential for tensions between Russia and Ukraine in the Black Sea region to impact Russian oil shipments.
Attention is focused on the upcoming release of July consumer price data from the United States on Thursday. This data is expected to offer insights into the future monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve.
Adding to the price dynamics, US crude inventories saw an unexpected increase of 5.9 million barrels in the past week, surpassing the 0.6 million barrel rise projected by analysts in a Reuters poll. This information was revealed by the US Energy Information Administration's Wednesday report.
Similarly, US crude oil exports encountered a remarkable reduction of 2.9 million barrels per day during the past week, marking a record-breaking decline. Notwithstanding this decline, market sentiment foresees a future increase in crude exports, attributed to the dynamics between US crude futures and the Brent spread. This viewpoint was conveyed by Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group.
Meanwhile, recent data has indicated that the consumer sector in China entered a state of deflation, and factory gate prices continued to decline throughout July. These trends have raised concerns about fuel demand in the world's second-largest economy.
Technically, WTI made an awaited breakout beyond the 83-resistance level and now the 100MA on the weekly channel will be the next challenge.​

BTC

The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is set to be published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on August 10. Analyzing on-chain data suggests that there's a possibility of another Bitcoin (BTC) price rally, given the positive market response to the previous month's release.
The impact of the monthly CPI data on BTC prices has strengthened due to increasing Bitcoin adoption among governments and institutional investors. For instance, following the July 12 CPI data release, Bitcoin's price surged by 4%, reaching a new peak for 2023 at $31,500. The question now is whether Bitcoin can achieve a similar feat once again.
Historical data illustrates that Bitcoin has often experienced rallies when the market anticipates a decrease in CPI or a modest increase. For instance, the CPI data from July 12 indicated a mild inflation increase of only 1% in the prior month. In response, Bitcoin's price had risen by 5% in the week leading up to the release, followed by another 4% rally afterward, resulting in a new 2023 peak.
A comparable pattern has emerged in the current week. As of August 9, BTC's price closed at $29,900, reflecting a 4% increase from August 7. On-chain data suggests that crypto traders have been preparing for another round of optimistic price movement following the August 10 CPI release.
Technically, on the daily chart, it appears that yesterday's breakout on shorter time frames might be false, given that the price action is still clinging to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.​

 

[zForex]

Indices Diverge Amidst Volatility, OPEC+ Meeting Looms, and Bitcoin's Potential Catalysts

US INDICES:

The S&P 500 (SPX) concluded its second consecutive week on a downtrend, with analysts continuing to emphasize its lofty valuation and the imminent risk of a market correction. The index experienced a 0.3% decline, testing the initial support level at 4450.
The Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC), skewed towards technology stocks, witnessed a 1.9% drop, following its previous decline of 2.85% during the first week of August. The index is currently approaching a critical near-term support threshold of approximately 13000.
Traders at JPMorgan have assessed a 40% likelihood of the market undergoing a retracement before resuming its upward trajectory for the year. This probability has risen from the previous estimate of 35%.
Barclays Plc strategists noted in a recent report that systematic investors are positioned close to their maximum long positions in equities, and the phase of short-covering has run its course. This suggests a higher probability of them shifting to selling mode in the event of a volatility surge.
A key contributor to the uptick in monthly inflation was the increase in shelter costs, which rose by 0.4%, leading to a 7.7% surge compared to the previous year. Adjusted for inflation, real wages experienced a 0.3% monthly boost and a 1.1% year-on-year rise.
Looking ahead to this week's developments, notable events include the release of U.S. retail sales data for July, scheduled for Tuesday. Furthermore, the publication of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes is set for Wednesday.
Nasdaq continues the selloff and closes near 15,000. If this support level is broken, the subsequent target could be 14,800 where the median line of the long bullish trend plays as support/reistance for the last 5 times.​

USOIL:

The OPEC+ panel is set to meet virtually on Friday, with attention focused on Saudi Arabia's production plans. While no major policy changes are anticipated, Saudi Arabia might indicate whether it will extend its 1 million bpd production cut into September. Oil prices showed a slight increase.
The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of OPEC+ meets to assess recent market developments. Saudi Arabia's potential extension of its production cut is drawing attention, as analysts predict its continuation due to stable oil prices. Riyadh aims to maintain market stability after a recent price recovery. The JMMC is unlikely to recommend altering the current production policy during this meeting.
Oil prices were slightly lower due to a risk-off sentiment after a U.S. Long-Term Ratings downgrade by Fitch. Prices quickly rebounded, trading flat. The market anticipates Saudi Arabia's decision on extending the production cut after the JMMC meeting and before the official selling prices (OSPs) announcement. OSPs are typically released around the 5th of the month preceding the loading month.
Technically, WTI made an awaited breakout beyond the 83-resistance level and now the 100MA on the weekly channel playing the role of resistance level. Also, the bullish trend line on the daily chart continues to support the actual trend.​

Crypto

Goldman Sachs economists, including Jan Hatzius and David Mericle, predict potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve by June 2024, aiming to normalize rates as inflation nears the target. This adjustment reflects Goldman's view that current rates might be too restrictive amid inflation trends. However, the bank acknowledges the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's decisions, highlighting the possibility that they might maintain the status quo.
Recent data indicating a slower-than-expected rise in US inflation at 3.2%, with a 4.7% annual pace for the core consumer price index, complicates the outlook. With the Fed's benchmark rate between 5.25% to 5.5%, Goldman Sachs anticipates stabilization around 3 to 3.25%.
These projections align with market expectations, as indicated by the CME FedWatch Tool, with 68% anticipating a minimum 25 basis point rate cut by May 2024.
The potential convergence of favorable factors could positively impact the Bitcoin market. Coinciding with Bitcoin ETF filing deadlines from BlackRock, Fidelity, Investco, VanEck, and WisdomTree on March 15, 2024, Bitcoin halving is expected by the end of April (around April 26). These events, coupled with the Federal Reserve's accommodative policy, might serve as a substantial catalyst for Bitcoin's price.
Technically, on the daily chart, it appears that yesterday's breakout on shorter time frames might be false, given that the price action is still clinging to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.​

 

[zForex]

Negative Global Sentiment Amid China's Economic Concerns, Oil Stabilization, and Bitcoin Halving Anticipation

US INDICES:

Global sentiment turned negative as disappointing data emerged from China, accompanied by an unexpected interest rate reduction by the country's central bank. China's July industrial production rose by 3.7%, falling short of expectations, and retail sales also grew less than anticipated. The People's Bank of China cut rates by 15 basis points to 2.5%, but instead of alleviating investor worries, it raised concerns about a potential property crisis in China.
In the premarket, shares of major banks such as JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America declined. This followed a warning from Fitch that it might downgrade several banks, including JPMorgan Chase. Moody's had also recently downgraded the ratings of ten U.S. institutions and placed others on watch for potential downgrades.
Despite a positive Wall Street session driven by Nvidia's rally, some experts, like Alicia Levine from BNY Mellon Wealth Management, are preparing for consolidation as yields remain high, although the market might still see more gains by year-end.
Upcoming earnings releases from major retailers, including Home Depot, Target, and Walmart, are expected to garner attention. Home Depot's strong earnings report led to a slight rise in its stock before the market opened.
Looking ahead, Wall Street is focused on July retail sales data, import and export price information, and August's NAHB housing market index to gain insights into the consumer's state and economic conditions.
Nasdaq continues the selloff and closes near 15,000. If this support level is broken, the subsequent target could be 14,000.​

USOIL:

Crude oil prices stabilized as traders evaluated the tightness of the market in comparison to China's struggling post-COVID economic recovery. Brent crude stood at $86.16 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate crude reached $82.42/b early Tuesday.
China released data indicating heightened pressure on the economy from various angles, leading Beijing to lower key policy rates in order to stimulate activity, as reported by Reuters on Tuesday. China's central bank unexpectedly decreased one set of key interest rates and later in the day, made additional cuts to other rates, according to the report.
Supply reductions by Saudi Arabia and Russia, members of the OPEC+ group that includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, played a role in boosting prices over the past seven weeks.
In a more positive development, refinery throughput in July saw a 17.4% increase compared to the previous year in the world's largest oil-importing country. Refiners maintained elevated output to meet the demand for domestic summer travel and to capitalize on lucrative regional profit margins by exporting fuel.
Technically, WTI is corrected and finding support around the 100MA at the 81.30 level while the next support is at 79.00.​

Crypto

Bitcoin miners are accumulating BTC as they prepare for the upcoming halving event in April 2024. This accumulation trend began after a drop in Bitcoin's price from $30,000 and is seen as a protective measure against potential resistance from buyers. The halving, which occurs every four years, cuts miners' rewards in half to slow new BTC creation and potentially increase its value. This upcoming halving will reduce rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Miners' improved liquidity positions, partly due to the excitement around BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), have contributed to this accumulation. Institutional crypto investors are exercising caution due to the sluggish market and reduced trading volumes. Bitcoin funds have seen significant outflows, while institutional investors have stopped shorting BTC, opting to lock in profits.
From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, the price action remains attached to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.​

 

[zForex]

Indices Experience Losses Amid Economic Concerns, Oil Prices Steady, and Bitcoin's Taproot Upgrade Drives Innovation
US INDICES:
NASDAQ

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures saw slight gains as well. These movements occurred after a negative session on Wall Street, where all three main indices closed over 1% lower on Tuesday. This resulted in the Dow breaking a three-day winning streak.
Financial stocks, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, experienced declines after Fitch issued a warning about potential credit rating downgrades for numerous banks. This situation adds to the challenges the sector is facing, following Moody's decision last week to downgrade ratings for 10 banks and place other institutions on a watchlist.
Regional bank shares also faced difficulties due to remarks made by Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari concerning potential capital regulation. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) concluded the session with a 3.3% decrease.
Furthermore, investor sentiment was affected by economic news from China. Retail sales and industrial production growth fell short of economists' expectations, as revealed by Tuesday's data. Additionally, the country's central bank implemented an interest rate cut.
As August is just past its midpoint, the three major indices are on track to experience a month of losses. The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 are projected to decline by 5% and 3.3% respectively, while the Dow is expected to drop by 1.7%.
Nasdaq continues the selloff and closes near 15,000. If this support level is broken, the subsequent target could be 14,000.


USOIL:

Oil prices showed little change on August 16 as investors balanced worries about China's struggling economy with expectations of reduced supply in the US. Brent crude futures slipped 7 cents to $84.82 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 8 cents to $81.91 a barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen over 1% in the previous session, reaching their lowest points since August 8.
China's economy is causing concern due to disappointing retail sales, industrial output, and investment figures. This has raised worries about a prolonged growth slowdown. The country's central bank made a minor interest rate cut in response, but analysts consider it insufficient to have a meaningful impact. The OPEC+ group and the International Energy Agency are looking to China to boost crude demand for the remainder of 2023, but skepticism about this is growing.
US crude stocks decreased by approximately 6.2 million barrels the previous week, a larger reduction than the 2.3 million expected by Reuters-polled analysts. US government inventory data is scheduled for later on the same day. The oil market's fourth-quarter outlook depends on China's macroeconomic situation, with Saudi Arabia and Russia's supply cuts having boosted oil prices recently.
From a technical standpoint, WTI is corrected, and the next support levels are the area between 80 and 79.



Crypto

The Bitcoin Taproot upgrade, activated in November 2021, is a significant advancement enhancing network privacy, efficiency, and smart contract capabilities. It combines multiple conditions into transactions for increased privacy and efficiency. Its key features include Schnorr Signatures, Tapscript, and Taproot itself, which collectively improve transaction validation speed, block space efficiency, and data storage. The upgrade's potential benefits encompass enhanced privacy, lower transaction fees, innovative smart contracts, and improved network security. This milestone empowers developers to create decentralized finance solutions and accelerates transactions, fostering efficiency and reduced costs. Overall, the Taproot upgrade represents a crucial step in Bitcoin's development, offering innovative features and paving the way for a new era in cryptocurrency.
Technically, on the daily chart, price action is still clinging to the resistance level of 29790. A genuine breach of the current resistance could propel the price towards 31000, while a selloff might lead BTC back to the 100-day moving average on the daily chart.

 

[zForex]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Rise, Oil Prices Edge Up with Economic Concerns, Bitcoin Faces Challenges

US INDICES:

Futures linked to the S&P 500 experienced a 0.5% gain, while Nasdaq-100 futures rose by 0.6%. Contracts tied to the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 saw increases, aiming to recover from three weeks of decline. Ahead of regular trading, Palo Alto Networks Inc. surged as its cybersecurity company's billings projection surpassed expectations.
Investors are rebounding from a week of losses as the market navigates a subdued summer period. The Nasdaq Composite concluded the week with a roughly 2.6% decrease, marking its third consecutive weekly decline since December. Meanwhile, the Dow also experienced a 2.2% decline for the week, its most significant decrease since March. The S&P 500 fell by 2.1%, recording its third successive week of losses, a scenario last observed in February.
Investors considered the implications of escalating bond yields and vulnerabilities in China, which exerted a dampening influence on markets in a period typically characterized by subdued activity.
Nasdaq is experiencing a selloff towards the next target at the median line of the current bullish channel at the 14750 level. If the selling pressure persists, the next support level would be around 14260.
​

USOIL:

Oil prices inched up on Monday due to reduced exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia, along with elevated heating oil prices, which overshadowed concerns about global demand growth amid high-interest rates. The September WTI contract is set to expire on Tuesday, while the more active October contract saw an increase of 78 cents, reaching $81.44 per barrel. After a 7-week winning streak, both front-month benchmark prices experienced a 2% weekly loss last week, driven by worries that China's sluggish economic growth could negatively impact oil demand and uncertainties surrounding the potential continuation of the U.S. interest rate hike cycle. Despite China's economic challenges, the country is utilizing its record inventories built up earlier this year, as refiners reduce purchases following supply reductions by OPEC and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+. These supply cuts pushed global prices above $80 a barrel. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia's July shipments to China decreased by 31% compared to June, while Russia, thanks to its discounted crude, remained China's primary supplier, as indicated by Chinese customs data.
WTI price action found support and is currently undergoing a correction from the expected level of 78.7. The next level to watch for will be the challenge of the previous high at 85.​

Crypto

Bitcoin experienced a decline, while other cryptocurrencies showed mixed performance on Monday following a significant sell-off towards the end of the previous week. This sell-off caused digital assets to breach crucial technical levels, potentially leading to further drops.
In the last 24 hours, the price of Bitcoin decreased by just under 1%, reaching $26,050. This stabilization occurred around the $26,000 mark after the preceding week's plummet, which had driven the primary cryptocurrency from approximately $29,000 to around $25,500.
While the market retains a position above the local lows witnessed in June, optimism prevails for the continuation of an upward trend. Nonetheless, concerns arise due to July's highs being lower than those observed in April.
The sell-off that impacted Bitcoin marked a substantial change in the cryptocurrency markets, which had been relatively stagnant until the previous week. Despite a period of subdued activity in the stock market, characterized by volatility in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, Bitcoin experienced a sudden decline last week, surprising the markets and prompting traders to search for explanations.
Technically, BTC has broken the trend channel and the trend line that supported the price and also the 200MA. The next support is expected to be around 25,000. This level has functioned as a strong support and resistance level in the last four instances.​

 

[zForex]

Nasdaq Rebounds with Rising Yields, Bitcoin's Volatility, and the Enigmatic Rise of a Bitcoin Wallet


US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures both added 0.3% and 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite posted its biggest advance of the month during Monday’s main trading session, rising 1.6%. The S&P 500 added close to 0.7%. The two benchmarks snapped a four-day slide, and the Nasdaq notched its biggest one-day advance since August. Notably, the broad market index and the tech-heavy Nasdaq were able to post gains even as the yield on the 10-year Treasury reached its highest level since November 2007, gaining about 9 basis points to trade at 4.34%. Tech shares historically struggle in a high-rate environment, making the tandem rise with yields on Monday more striking for Wall Street.
On the economic data front, Wall Street will be looking toward the Philadelphia Fed’s nonmanufacturing survey, as well as the Richmond Fed’s manufacturing survey results. Existing home sales data for July is also scheduled for release Tuesday morning.
Traders are also anticipating Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks at Jackson Hole on Friday for more insight into the Central Bank’s inflation outlook.
Nasdaq is bouncing after coming close to the 14500 level. The short-term selloff is still persistent. The 100MA and also the Fibonacci close to 14400 are making a solid confluence point and the price may face a solid support there.


USOIL
China's recent surge in crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia is driven by heightened purchases from key Asian buyers. Despite August's increased arrivals, this rise isn't expected to have an immediate significant impact. Major importers like China, Japan, India, and Taiwan are projected to collectively raise Saudi crude imports by 1.2 million barrels per day, hitting historic highs. China's shift towards Saudi crude is due to constrained Russian Urals crude supply and pricing. Although August saw a rise in Saudi oil imports, experts predict Chinese purchases to stay modest in Q3 (July-September). Saudi Arabia still trails behind Russia, its OPEC+ partner, in delivering crude oil to China. July saw Russia surpass Saudi Arabia as China's top crude oil supplier, despite higher prices and narrower discounts. Russian imports in July were up 13% from 2022, while Saudi imports declined by 14% YoY and 31% from June 2023. Analysts anticipate Chinese demand for Saudi oil to recover in the long term.
The WTI price action on a daily basis appears to be forming a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The current support level is at 79, and a breakout below this level could potentially lead the price toward the next target of 77.


Crypto

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies stabilized on Tuesday following a recent selloff that interrupted a period of low volatility. Yet, crypto traders remain cautious about potential future turbulence.
Bitcoin's price stayed around $26,050 in the past 24 hours after plummeting to about $25,500 recently. This revisited a low point seen after last week's selloff, marking the lowest since mid-June. Analysts fear further declines, especially as Bitcoin trades below key technical levels, including the 200-day moving average.
In just three months, an anonymous Bitcoin wallet surged to become the world's third-largest holder, amassing a remarkable 118,000 BTC, worth about $3.08 billion at the current $26,100 price. This rapid accumulation sparked debates over its mysterious owner.
Experts suggest different possibilities. While some think it might be a cryptocurrency exchange performing a large transfer, others imaginatively link it to BlackRock, a major asset management firm. However, the BlackRock theory lacks solid evidence and has led to comical posts featuring actual black rocks.
Technically, BTC has broken the trend channel and the trend line that supported the price and also the 200MA. The next support is expected to be around 25,000. This level has functioned as a strong support and resistance level in the last four instances.

 

[zForex]

Nvidia Earnings, Central Bank Meeting, and Cryptocurrency Stability Amidst Volatility​

NASDAQ

The futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 both increased by 0.6% and 0.8% respectively. Nvidia is set to announce its second-quarter earnings later today. According to Refinitiv's polled analysts, the company is expected to show significant year-over-year increases in both profit and revenue for the second quarter. Having risen over 200%, Nvidia is the top-performing stock in the S&P 500 for 2023, as investors show enthusiasm for its AI-related opportunities.
Investors will be examining the report for indications of whether the market can resume its upward trend for the year, or if the August downturn will persist. The S&P 500 has experienced a decline of over 4% this month. On Wednesday, shares saw an increase of over 1%.
S&P Global's flash U.S. Composite PMI index for August could offer further insights into the strength of business activity and the direction of interest rates, in anticipation of a much-anticipated speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.
Traders are currently predicting an 86.5% likelihood that the Fed will maintain unchanged rates in September, based on CME Group's FedWatch tool. However, their expectations for rate cuts from the central bank have been reduced.
Nasdaq is bouncing after coming close to the 14500 level. The short-term selloff is still persistent. The 100MA and the Fibonacci close to 14400 are making a solid confluence point and the price may face a solid support there.
​

USOIL

Oil prices experienced a decrease of more than 1.5% due to concerns about a global decline in manufacturing. This decline occurred just before the annual central banking meeting in Jackson Hole, US. Economic challenges were evident worldwide, as indicated by various Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) surveys. Japan witnessed its factory activity shrinking for the third consecutive month, while Eurozone business activity, especially in Germany, fell short of expectations. The US PMI data was still awaited, and analysts were closely observing discussions among central bank officials at the Jackson Hole event to gain insights into potential changes in interest rates. Moreover, US crude stocks saw a reduction of approximately 2.4 million barrels. Additionally, the potential restart of a major pipeline in northern Iraq has brought up the possibility of an extra 500,000 barrels per day entering the market. It has been reported that oil exports are also resuming through the Ceyhan terminal.
The daily WTI price movement has given rise to a head and shoulders reversal pattern. Currently, there's a breakout occurring below the critical support level at 79, driving the price towards the projected target of 77.​

Crypto

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies remained relatively stable on Wednesday, following a recent market decline that saw the largest one-day drop of the year. Analysts observe technical factors supporting a bearish trend during this period of stability.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price held above $26,000, showing stability after last week's market rout drove it from above $29,000 to around $25,500, the lowest since mid-June. This decline, the largest in 2023, ended a phase of low volatility, suggesting Bitcoin's current stagnation.
This week, Bitcoin's direction may be influenced by the stock market's response to Nvidia's earnings and updates from the Jackson Hole economic symposium. These events could impact overall risk sentiment and consequently influence cryptocurrency prices.
Technical factors unique to Bitcoin also play a role. Short-term holders face significant unrealized losses, as noted by analysts at Glassnode. Unlike long-term holders, short-term holders are sensitive to price shifts, with many buying Bitcoin above $29,000. This dynamic contributes to the current market situation.
Technically, BTC has broken the trend channel and the trend line that supported the price and also the 200MA. The next support is expected to be around 25,000. This level has functioned as a strong support and resistance level in the last four instances.