Pre-Open US

[zForex]

Stocks Respond to Powell's Statements, Robinhood's Significant Bitcoin Holdings, and Oil Price Trends with Economic Factors

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq-100 futures were active. 3M shares surged over 5% after a Bloomberg News report revealed the company's readiness to settle lawsuits regarding defective earplugs. Stocks experienced gains in the last session following fresh statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Speaking at the annual central bank conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Powell acknowledged ongoing economic growth and robust consumer spending. However, he emphasized the central bank's cautious approach to further rate hikes. Traders on Monday morning were factoring in an approximate 20% likelihood of a rate increase during the upcoming September Fed meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. The final week of August began with major indices poised to close the month with losses. Since the beginning of the month, the Dow and S&P dropped by 3.4% and 4%, respectively, while the Nasdaq experienced a decline of around 5.3%.
The Nasdaq is exhibiting weakness at its current high levels. The value of 14650 serves as a neckline for a head and shoulders pattern that is forming, indicating an anticipated potential reversal. The median line of the actual bullish channel is working as a support level too.​

USOIL

China's move to boost its struggling economy had a limited impact on oil prices, which remained largely steady. Concerns about the pace of economic growth and potential US interest rate hikes that could weaken demand persisted. To stimulate struggling markets, China halved the stamp duty on stock trading. Attention also turned to Tropical Storm Idalia, which posed a potential threat to oil and gas production in the US Gulf.
Tropical Storm Idalia was strengthening as it approached Cuba, potentially causing power outages, which could lend short-term support to oil prices despite the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve on rate hikes.
Oil prices, supported by decreasing oil inventories and production cuts from the OPEC+ alliance, remained above $80 per barrel. Saudi Arabia was anticipated to extend its voluntary 1 million barrels per day oil output reduction into October, aiming to provide continued market support.
The WTI price touched the support level near 77.50 and is now rebounding. The level at 81, where the 100MA has acted as a resistance for the past 2 instances on the 4-hour chart, might continue to do so. If there's a breakout above that level, the next target could be 82.50.

Crypto

The trading platform Robinhood (HOOD) now holds more than $3 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) in a single wallet, revealed data from Arkham Intelligence. This accumulation, spanning several months, makes it the third-largest Bitcoin holder globally, trailing behind Binance and Bitfinex. The wallet's owners have prompted speculation, including theories about BlackRock's involvement or Gemini moving user holdings. While Robinhood hasn't commented publicly, it transferred 118,300 Bitcoins to this wallet over three months, managed by Jump Trading. Despite low crypto trading volumes, this sizable Bitcoin exposure showcases Robinhood's stake in the market.
Arkham Intelligence data shows Robinhood's (HOOD) single wallet holds over $3B in Bitcoin (BTCUSD), making it the world's third-largest holder after Binance and Bitfinex. The wallet's owners, potentially BlackRock or Gemini, remain speculative. Robinhood transferred 118,300 Bitcoin over 3 months to this wallet managed by Jump Trading, highlighting its market stake.
Technically, BTC is finding support at the $26,000 level while awaiting further direction. The next support is anticipated around $25,000. This level has served as a robust support and resistance point in the past four instances.

 

[zForex]

Mixed Gains as Stocks Seek Reprieve, Oil Prices React to Supply Concerns, and Bitcoin Holders Defy Slowdown


US INDICES:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively.
The Dow finished more than 200 points higher, which equates to a gain of about 0.6%. 3M helped the blue-chip average in the session, rallying more than 5% a day after Bloomberg News cited sources saying the conglomerate was ready to settle lawsuits that alleged some of its earplugs were faulty.
But Monday’s leg up can be characterized as a respite from what’s shaping up to be a tough month for stocks. With just three sessions left in August’s trading month, the Dow is on pace to finish 2.8% lower. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq are poised for losses of 3.4% and 4.5%, respectively.
The Nasdaq is exhibiting weakness at its current high levels. The value of 14650 serves as a neckline for a head and shoulders pattern that is forming, indicating an anticipated potential reversal. The median line of the actual bullish channel is working as a support level as well.


USOIL

Oil prices edged up due to concerns about supply disruption from an approaching hurricane in the US Gulf Coast, countering worries of a potential US interest rate hike affecting demand.
Tropical Storm Idalia, moving towards Florida, could impact crude production in the region. A recent fire at a Marathon Petroleum refinery and threats of labor action at Chevron's LNG facilities in Australia also contributed to supply concerns. However, demand worries persist in the US and China due to economic uncertainties and potential interest rate changes. The economic data later in the week could further influence oil prices.
The WTI is rebounding from the support level at 77.5 and resuming its bullish direction after the recent correction. The 84-resistance level will be the next significant hurdle to monitor, potentially impacting the current trend. Before that, the 82.00 mark will serve as a temporary level of interest.


Crypto

Despite experiencing a recent billion-dollar shakeout, long-term holders of Bitcoin persistently accumulate tokens, indicating that traders maintain a positive long-term perspective regardless of the current market slowdown. These committed holders are also retaining their spot positions, abstaining from active trading, or utilizing their Bitcoin as collateral, as per analysts at Bitfinex, a cryptocurrency exchange.
Data provided by Bitfinex reveals that Bitcoin's long-term holders are consistently accumulating, with an unprecedented 40% remaining unmoved for over three years. This marks an all-time high for this particular metric. However, while individuals with extended holding periods of three years or more continue to amass Bitcoin, the one-year inactive supply metric portrays a more pessimistic sentiment.
Furthermore, data suggests that traders of crypto futures and options are preparing for a bearish market in the upcoming months, with Bitcoin's anticipated prices potentially dropping to as low as $22,000. This projection represents a decline of over 15% from its current levels.
Technically, BTC is finding support at the $26,000 level while awaiting further direction. The next support is anticipated around $25,000. This level has served as a strong support and resistance point in the past four instances.​

 

[zForex]

Fed Rate Hike Speculation with Economic Indicators and Crypto Trends


US INDICES:

Slight gains were observed in S&P 500 futures, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures showing a 0.3% increase equivalent to 98 points. Meanwhile, Nasdaq-100 futures were also in focus. Investors processed less-than-anticipated payroll data and a forecast for annual gross domestic product growth. Despite this, the outlook hinted that the Federal Reserve might soon conclude its rate hikes, providing a boost to the stock market. Traders were also anticipating July's personal consumption expenditures data, a crucial inflation indicator for the Fed. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones predicted a 4.2% year-over-year increase last month, slightly higher than the previous month's 4.1% rise. Additionally, Thursday morning would bring the release of weekly jobless claims data. The S&P 500 was on track for its weakest month since February, while the Nasdaq 100 looked set to experience its most substantial drop this year.
Over the past two days, the Nasdaq has displayed signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement. Notably, media coverage appears to be providing solid support for the price, and even the bearish pattern that was emerging earlier seems to have lost its significance.

USOIL

Oil prices climbed as US crude inventories saw a substantial decrease and OPEC+ implemented production cuts.
US government data revealed a larger-than-anticipated drop of 10.6 million barrels in crude inventories due to heightened exports and refinery operations. The extension of Saudi Arabia's 1 million bpd oil production cut into October is expected, supplementing OPEC and Russia's cuts as part of OPEC+.
However, concerns arose over China's manufacturing activity decline in August, as the official factory survey displayed contraction, raising alarms about the global economy's second-largest player. The purchasing managers' index (PMI) inched up to 49.7 from July's 49.3, yet it remained below the 50-point threshold indicating expansion.
Investor attention also turned to US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data for inflation metrics, scheduled for release and deemed important by the Federal Reserve. The US government revised the last quarter's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to 2.1%, down from the previous 2.4%, while private payroll growth in August displayed a significant slowdown.
The WTI maintains its bullish trajectory, steadily progressing towards the 84-resistance level. The long-term trend remains robust and bullish, suggesting the potential for further advancement given the current fundamentals.


Crypto
The quantity of Bitcoin held in centralized exchange wallets has reached its lowest point in over five years, per a recent CoinDesk report. Data from CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics service, indicates a 4% decrease in exchange reserves this month, settling at 2 million BTC, approximately $54.5 billion. This marks the lowest level since January 2018.
This decline is influenced by a mix of positive and negative market factors. On the positive side, services like Copper's Clearloop are gaining popularity. Clearloop enables trades without moving assets to centralized exchanges. Matrixport partnered with Copper to enhance its prime brokerage services, allowing off-exchange settlements. Clearloop securely connects multiple exchanges, enabling Matrixport's institutional clients to trade within Copper's infrastructure and reduce risks.
Conversely, the downfall of FTX, once the world's third-largest exchange, has led to reduced trust in centralized platforms. Thielen attributes the decreased exchange balances to this loss of confidence, highlighting the importance of self-custody. A recent PricewaterhouseCoopers report reveals that only 9% of industry participants store coins exclusively on exchanges, opting for various custody options to minimize risk.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 28000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[zForex]

S&P 500 and Nasdaq Futures Surge, Labor Market Signals, Oil Prices Rise, and SEC's Bitcoin ETF Decision

US INDICES:

S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both rose by 0.6%. MongoDB and Dell Technologies saw gains of 6% and 9%, respectively, in extended trading, driven by stronger-than-expected earnings reports.
In August 2023, the US economy added 187,000 jobs, surpassing the revised July figure of 157,000 and market expectations of 170,000. However, it marked the third consecutive month with job gains below 200,000, signaling labor market moderation due to the Federal Reserve's rate hikes aimed at combating inflation.
The data appears positive for stocks but may also indicate a slowdown in the labor market, especially with the unemployment rate rising from 3.5% to 3.8%, and average hourly earnings decreasing monthly by 0.2%.
Over the past two days, the Nasdaq has displayed signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement. Notably, media coverage appears to be providing solid support for the price, and even the bearish pattern that was emerging earlier seems to have lost its significance.


USOIL

Oil prices rose over 1% on Friday, aiming to end a two-week decline, driven by expectations of reduced oil supplies. Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntary 1 million barrel per day production cut into October, continuing the supply restrictions orchestrated by OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) to bolster prices. Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, has also agreed to decrease oil exports in the coming month.
Experts anticipate that supply cuts will continue, and prices need to remain above $90 per barrel for a sustained period to encourage OPEC to return more supply to the market, as noted by National Australia Bank.
However, the tightness of the oil market also hinges on demand. The United States has shown robust demand, with commercial crude inventories decreasing in five of the past six weeks. Additionally, August U.S. job data is awaited, with expectations of slower growth that could influence the possibility of interest rate hikes.
Furthermore, hopes for demand recovery in other regions are growing. Eurozone manufacturing saw a slight improvement last month, potentially signaling better times ahead for the struggling sector. A surprising rebound in China's economy also offers hope for export-dependent economies.
Both OPEC and the International Energy Agency are relying on China, the world's largest oil importer, to support oil demand in the latter part of 2023. However, concerns persist due to the slow recovery of China's economy.
The remainder of the year is expected to bring supply shortages, driven by healthy global consumption and Saudi Arabia's determination to maintain a high price floor.
The WTI maintains its bullish trajectory, challenging the 84.5 last resistance level and creating a breakout. The long-term trend remains robust and bullish, suggesting the potential for further advancement given the current fundamentals.


Crypto

The SEC has postponed its decision on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications, including those from BlackRock, WisdomTree, Invesco Galaxy, Wise Origin, VanEck, Bitwise, and Valkyrie Digital Assets. This delay caused Bitcoin's price to drop by 4.1% to $26,100. The SEC initiated the review process last month, with applicants aiming to launch the first spot bitcoin ETF to increase retail investment in bitcoin without requiring direct purchases. The SEC has extended comment periods for these applications, with new deadlines ranging from October 16 to October 17. The regulator typically uses the full 240-day review period, and earlier this week, a court ruled that some of the SEC's arguments against bitcoin ETFs were "arbitrary and capricious," ordering a reevaluation.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 28000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[zForex]

Labor Day Holiday Pause, Nasdaq's Climb, Oil Prices, and SEC's Bitcoin ETF Ruling​

US INDICES:

US markets will be shut on Monday for the Labor Day holiday, but futures advanced after the S&P 500 Index posted its best week since June.
Market sentiment got a boost from Friday’s US jobs report that showed a steadily cooling labor market, offering the Federal Reserve room to pause rate increases this month. Markets built on those gains after news of a weekend surge in home sales in two of China’s biggest cities, an early sign that government efforts to cushion a record housing slowdown are helping.
Nasdaq continues displaying signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement.
​

USOIL

Oil prices held steady on Monday as major producers are expected to maintain tight supplies. Brent crude futures for November edged up 5 cents to $88.60 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) October futures rose 2 cents to $85.57 a barrel.
These prices followed last week's highest levels in over six months, driven by the anticipation of supply cuts from Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, the continuous rise in U.S. oil production may limit significant price gains. Saudi Arabia is likely to extend its voluntary 1-million-barrel-per-day cut into October, and Russia has already announced export cuts. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy expects some easing in the global crude market in the next few weeks due to refinery maintenance, but supplies of sour crude will remain tight due to OPEC+ cuts.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., job growth increased in August, but the unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, suggesting the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates this month. In China, unexpected manufacturing growth in August and economic support measures brought positivity to the market.
The WTI broke the 84.5 level and is now at the 86 level, making a new high and getting out of its 10-month range. The next big target will be around the 90 levels.


Crypto

JP Morgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, predict that the recent federal court ruling criticizing the SEC's handling of Grayscale's Bitcoin ETF proposal may lead the SEC to reconsider its stance on various spot Bitcoin ETF applications, including those from firms like BlackRock and Fidelity. The court's decision highlighted the lack of clear reasoning for treating futures-based and spot-based Bitcoin ETFs differently. The SEC has postponed its decisions on these applications until mid-October, potentially leading to increased competition among ETF providers. Despite this, JP Morgan believes that spot Bitcoin ETFs may not significantly impact the cryptocurrency and financial industries, citing similar outcomes in Canada and Europe. JP Morgan consistently supports cryptocurrencies and emphasizes the need for clear regulations in the crypto space, especially in light of recent SEC lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase. Their report underscores the importance of establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework involving the SEC and CFTC.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 26000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[zForex]

The Impact of Economic Slowdown and SEC's Bitcoin ETF Decisions​

US INDICES:

Last week, traders assessed new indications of an economic slowdown and decreasing inflationary pressures. The most recent US Nonfarm Payrolls report revealed that the unemployment rate had risen to 3.8% in August, marking its highest level in over a year. This was contrary to the 3.5% rate anticipated by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. Additionally, average hourly earnings increased by 4.3% year-over-year, falling short of the 4.4% increase predicted by Dow Jones' polled economists.
Investors may also be bracing themselves for a challenging month in the stock market. Historically, September has been the weakest month for equities, and investors will be closely examining economic reports, including fresh inflation data, in preparation for the Federal Reserve's September policy meeting. The central bank's policymakers are scheduled to convene for a two-day meeting commencing on September 19, with the interest rate decision set to be announced on September 20.
Nasdaq continues displaying signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement.​

Crypto

Oil prices declined on Tuesday due to concerns about the global economy, especially China's slow post-pandemic recovery, although hopes of OPEC+ producers extending supply cuts limited the losses. Surveys indicated that global business activity slowed down last month as services firms struggled due to weak demand caused by rising prices and borrowing costs, leading consumers to reduce spending. China's services activity also expanded at its slowest pace in eight months in August. The strong US dollar made oil more expensive for other currency holders. The euro zone's services industry contracted, and the UK saw a significant business slowdown. The market also awaited US economic data for insights into the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy. Saudi Arabia and Russia were expected to continue voluntary oil cuts in the coming months to stabilize the market.
The WTI broke the 84.5 level and is now at the 86 level, making a new high getting out of its 10-month range. The next big target will be around the 90 levels.​

BTC

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw a decline on Tuesday, remaining at lower levels. Analysts are closely observing technical weaknesses, hinting at potential further drops.
Bitcoin's price decreased by 1% in the last 24 hours, landing at $25,750, distancing itself from the $26,000 mark that offered stability for the past month. While Bitcoin did experience temporary gains, like the recent spike to $28,000 after a pro-crypto court ruling, prices have struggled to maintain higher levels.
Macroeconomic factors, similar to how the stock market reacts to the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, are expected to keep influencing cryptocurrencies due to their sensitivity to interest rate changes, impacting risk-sensitive assets.
However, the focus of digital asset traders remains on the upcoming decisions from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) applications. These ETFs, if approved, could significantly affect crypto prices. While the SEC postponed decisions on several applications until October, crypto enthusiasts remain optimistic that approval is imminent. There's an ongoing debate among analysts about the extent to which this decision is already factored into current prices.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 26000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[zForex]

Dow's 200-Point Decline, Oil Price Volatility, and Bitcoin's Divergence

US INDICES:

The Dow closed nearly 200 points lower on Tuesday, representing a decline of approximately 0.6%. In the same session, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also saw decreases of 0.4% and nearly 0.1%, respectively. Before the market opening, Roku shares surged by over 10% following the announcement of several cost-cutting measures, including layoffs.
One of the contributing factors to this downward trend was the rise in oil prices, reaching their highest level since November. This increase was driven by the decision of Saudi Arabia and Russia to extend their voluntary supply cuts. On Wednesday, West Texas Intermediate futures experienced a 0.7% decline, trading at $86.07.
Investors are eagerly awaiting economic data scheduled for release on Wednesday morning, specifically focusing on the US trade deficit and the services industry. Additionally, in the afternoon, a new beige book summarizing economic activity will be published.
Furthermore, notable stocks such as GameStop, American Eagle Outfitters, and ChargePoint are set to announce their earnings after the closing bell.
Nasdaq continues displaying signs of strength by surpassing the 15,300-resistance level and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement.

USOIL

Oil prices fell on Wednesday due to a stronger dollar and investors' lack of concern about supply cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia. The dollar's strength, near a six-month high, made oil more expensive for holders of other currencies, impacting demand.
The market's uncertainty stemmed from a joint announcement by Saudi Arabia and Russia, extending their voluntary oil cuts until year-end. They plan to review these cuts monthly, allowing for flexibility. The market sensed the possibility of tapering due to factors like anti-inflation efforts and the impact on Saudi oil revenues.
Near-term supply concerns pushed front-month Brent futures to nine-month highs, trading at $4.13 a barrel above prices in six months. U.S. WTI futures showed a similar trend, with the spread between front-month and six-month contracts widening to as much as $4.88 a barrel, also near nine-month highs.
Analysts cautioned that price increases might face obstacles as U.S. refineries enter their maintenance period in September-October, potentially causing a dip in demand. Moreover, higher supply from Iran, Venezuela, and Libya could further impact prices.
The WTI broke the 84.5 level and is now at the 86 level marking a new high and getting out of its 10-month range. The next big target will be around the 90 levels.

Crypto

The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing a significant divergence between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs), which has reached record levels. LTHs are investors who have held their coins for over 155 days and are often characterized by their unwavering commitment to not sell during volatile times, earning them the nickname "diamond hands." On the other hand, STHs are those who recently acquired their coins and are more likely to sell in response to fear, uncertainty, or profit opportunities.
Recent on-chain data reveals an intriguing trend: LTH supply has been steadily increasing in recent years, while STH supply has been decreasing. This suggests that the overall supply of Bitcoin is becoming less active, with LTHs holding a growing share of the total supply.
Currently, the gap between these two groups is the widest it has ever been. LTH supply is nearing 15 million BTC, while STH supply has fallen below 2.5 million BTC, the lowest since Bitcoin's early days in 2011. This decline in STH supply coincided with a recent sharp drop in Bitcoin's price from above $29,000 to below $26,000. However, LTHs seem unaffected by this volatility, as their supply continues to grow while STHs decrease.
Although the strength of the LTH group may not have an immediate impact on the market, over longer periods, the increasing accumulation of supply in the wallets of HODLers (LTHs) could have a bullish effect due to supply and demand dynamics.
Technically, BTC retraced towards the last solid support/resistance level around the 26000 mark, displaying a rejection at this level before descending. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Apple's stock declined by 2.9% following a Bloomberg News report indicating that China might expand its ban on the use of iPhones in state-owned entities and agencies. This led to a downturn in technology and semiconductor stocks, with Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices seeing drops of 1.7% and 2.5%, respectively. Seagate Technology experienced a significant decline of nearly 11%, while Skyworks Solutions, Qualcomm, and Qorvo saw reductions of at least 7%.
On Thursday, a series of economic data points, including lower-than-expected jobless claims, raised concerns that the Federal Reserve might reconsider its tight monetary policy stance due to the robust labor market. Weekly jobless claims stood at 216,000, below the Dow Jones estimate of 230,000, and second-quarter labor costs increased more than anticipated.
The recent rise in energy prices, coupled with a strong job market, could prompt the Federal Reserve to take further action, potentially approving more interest rate hikes, as stated by Zaccarelli.
While 93% of traders are currently pricing in a rate pause at the September Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the possibility of additional hikes in November has increased to approximately 43%, according to the CME Fed Watch tool.
Nasdaq is coming back to the 15,300-support level as support right now and heading towards the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level presents a formidable challenge for further advancement. Notably, media coverage appears to be providing solid support for the price, and even the bearish pattern that was emerging earlier seems to have lost its significance.
​

USOIL

The price increase this week was primarily fueled by Saudi Arabia's decision to prolong its production cut and Russia's extension of its export cut.
Saudi Arabia and Russia announced earlier in the week that they would maintain their production curb of 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year. This announcement initially led to prices reaching their highest levels in nearly a year. However, prices have since retreated due to several factors.
Factors contributing to the price retreat include concerns about Chinese demand, a strong U.S. dollar, and profit-taking by investors. Despite a report indicating robust oil demand in China, uncertainty about Chinese demand persisted. China's oil imports saw significant increases in August, but doubts remained. Additionally, the strong U.S. dollar benefited from expectations that the Federal Reserve had completed its rate hikes. Profit-taking also played a role as investors cashed in on recent price surges.
The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories over the past four weeks, with the latest estimate showing a draw of over 6 million barrels, provided support for this week's rally. Some experts pointed to these inventory draws as a sign of strong domestic demand in the largest global economy.

While there is renewed speculation about oil prices reaching triple digits and OPEC+ production cuts continue to limit downside risks, concerns about demand persist and could pose challenges in the future.
The WTI touched the higher highs at the 88 level but started forming a price action signaling a possible correction and divergence with RSI on a 4H chart. If price continues the next resistance level will be around 90.​

Crypto

Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments recently published a report outlining why 2024 could be a pivotal year for Bitcoin. The report highlights three key factors driving this potential: Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge, the upcoming Halving event in April 2024, and the impact of ETF approvals.
First, Edwards defends Bitcoin's performance as an inflation hedge, citing its impressive 1000% rise from Q1-2020 to Q1-2021 in response to the Federal Reserve's massive QE packages. He asserts that Bitcoin was a remarkable inflation hedge during this period.
Secondly, Edwards emphasizes the significance of the upcoming Bitcoin Halving in April 2024, which will reduce Bitcoin's supply growth rate to 0.8% p.a., lower than that of Gold for the first time. He dismisses the notion that the Halving is already priced in and suggests that historical data and on-chain metrics indicate its importance.
Lastly, Edwards discusses the regulatory landscape, mentioning the CFTC's classification of Bitcoin as a commodity, Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF application, and the SEC's reconsideration of the Grayscale spot ETF rejection. He draws parallels to the gold ETF approval in 2004, which triggered a significant bull run.
Technically, BTC continues hovering around solid support/resistance level around the 28000 mark. The next support is expected around the 25000 level.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Surge on Fed Rate Expectations and Positive Tech News
S&P 500 futures saw a 0.4% increase, and Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a 0.7% rally as the week's trading began. This uptick in stock futures was driven by the anticipation that the Federal Reserve would maintain its current interest rates, given the ongoing deceleration in inflation.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal published on Sunday, there is a consensus among Fed members to refrain from raising rates during the central bank's upcoming meeting. Early Monday, Fed futures trading indicated a 93% likelihood that the Fed would keep rates steady on September 20, as per the CME FedWatch tool. However, it remains uncertain whether the Fed will implement further rate hikes this year, as reported by the WSJ.
Ahead of the market opening, Tesla's shares gained 6% following an optimistic assessment from Morgan Stanley, which upgraded the stock and predicted a substantial upcoming rally due to advancements in its autonomous software. Additionally, Qualcomm's shares surged by more than 8% after the semiconductor company announced its plans to supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026.
Investors are eagerly awaiting crucial inflation data in the coming week, particularly after a series of economic data releases last week showed stronger-than-expected performance, renewing concerns that the Federal Reserve might consider more aggressive rate hikes than previously anticipated.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.
​

USOIL

Oil Prices Dip as Saudi and Russia Extend Supply Cuts
Oil prices dipped on Monday following Saudi and Russian announcements of extended supply cuts totaling 1.3 million barrels per day until year-end. Despite concerns about China's economic activity, investors shifted focus to demand indicators, anticipating reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) later in the week.
The IEA recently reduced its 2024 oil demand growth projection to 1 million bpd, citing lackluster macroeconomic conditions, while OPEC maintained its 2.25 million bpd growth forecast in its August report.
Economic factors include the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision, with the Eurozone's growth outlook revised downward due to a sluggish German economy. In the United States, the August consumer price index (CPI) data release is awaited to gauge potential interest rate hikes.
US inflation data is considered a pivotal economic figure this week, expected to impact various markets. The outlook remains uncertain amid these developments.
WTI continues to test the 88-resistance level but has formed an ascending triangle, which is typically a pattern of continuation. However, there is a divergence between the price and the RSI on a 4-hour chart. If the price continues to rise, the next resistance level will be around 90.


Crypto
Catherine Wood: AI and Bitcoin Fusion Could Transform Business
Catherine Wood, the Founder, CIO, and CEO of ARK Investment Management, LLC (ARK or ARK Invest), recently expressed on the micro-blogging platform X (formerly Twitter) that the fusion of artificial intelligence (AI) with Bitcoin has the potential to reshape the business landscape significantly. Wood highlighted that this combination could lead to substantial cost savings and increased productivity for companies.
ARK Invest has also published an article titled "Investing in Artificial Intelligence: Where Will Equity Values Surface?" In this article, it is concluded that traditional investment vehicles following broad-based indices may not effectively capture the evolving AI landscape. AI training costs have been decreasing by approximately 70% per year, making the sector a disruptive force in the broad benchmarks.
As a result, ARK Invest suggests considering alternative exposures like their Disruptive Innovation ETF (ARKK) and Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) to diversify away from large benchmarks, tap into emerging AI opportunities, and benefit from the growth of artificial intelligence.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Surge on Fed Rate Expectations and Positive Tech News
S&P 500 futures saw a 0.4% increase, and Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a 0.7% rally as the week's trading began. This uptick in stock futures was driven by the anticipation that the Federal Reserve would maintain its current interest rates, given the ongoing deceleration in inflation.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal published on Sunday, there is a consensus among Fed members to refrain from raising rates during the central bank's upcoming meeting. Early Monday, Fed futures trading indicated a 93% likelihood that the Fed would keep rates steady on September 20, as per the CME FedWatch tool. However, it remains uncertain whether the Fed will implement further rate hikes this year, as reported by the WSJ.
Ahead of the market opening, Tesla's shares gained 6% following an optimistic assessment from Morgan Stanley, which upgraded the stock and predicted a substantial upcoming rally due to advancements in its autonomous software. Additionally, Qualcomm's shares surged by more than 8% after the semiconductor company announced its plans to supply Apple with 5G modems for smartphones through 2026.
Investors are eagerly awaiting crucial inflation data in the coming week, particularly after a series of economic data releases last week showed stronger-than-expected performance, renewing concerns that the Federal Reserve might consider more aggressive rate hikes than previously anticipated.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.

USOIL

Oil Prices Dip as Saudi and Russia Extend Supply Cuts
Oil prices dipped on Monday following Saudi and Russian announcements of extended supply cuts totaling 1.3 million barrels per day until year-end. Despite concerns about China's economic activity, investors shifted focus to demand indicators, anticipating reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) later in the week.
The IEA recently reduced its 2024 oil demand growth projection to 1 million bpd, citing lackluster macroeconomic conditions, while OPEC maintained its 2.25 million bpd growth forecast in its August report.
Economic factors include the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision, with the Eurozone's growth outlook revised downward due to a sluggish German economy. In the United States, the August consumer price index (CPI) data release is awaited to gauge potential interest rate hikes.
US inflation data is considered a pivotal economic figure this week, expected to impact various markets. The outlook remains uncertain amid these developments.
WTI continues to test the 88-resistance level but has formed an ascending triangle, which is typically a pattern of continuation. However, there is a divergence between the price and the RSI on a 4-hour chart. If the price continues to rise, the next resistance level will be around 90.

Crypto

Catherine Wood: AI and Bitcoin Fusion Could Transform Business
Catherine Wood, the Founder, CIO, and CEO of ARK Investment Management, LLC (ARK or ARK Invest), recently expressed on the micro-blogging platform X (formerly Twitter) that the fusion of artificial intelligence (AI) with Bitcoin has the potential to reshape the business landscape significantly. Wood highlighted that this combination could lead to substantial cost savings and increased productivity for companies.
ARK Invest has also published an article titled "Investing in Artificial Intelligence: Where Will Equity Values Surface?" In this article, it is concluded that traditional investment vehicles following broad-based indices may not effectively capture the evolving AI landscape. AI training costs have been decreasing by approximately 70% per year, making the sector a disruptive force in the broad benchmarks.
As a result, ARK Invest suggests considering alternative exposures like their Disruptive Innovation ETF (ARKK) and Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) to diversify away from large benchmarks, tap into emerging AI opportunities, and benefit from the growth of artificial intelligence.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[zForex]

NASDAQ

S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Futures Dip Amidst iPhone 15 Launch, Focus on August CPI Report and Fed Rate Expectations
S&P 500 futures declined by 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw a 0.1% drop. On Tuesday, Apple's stock experienced a 1.8% decrease following the unveiling of the iPhone 15 during its "Wonderlust" launch event in Cupertino.
Now, attention on Wall Street is shifting towards the release of the August CPI report scheduled for Wednesday morning. Economists are predicting a 3.6% year-over-year increase and a 0.6% monthly uptick in inflation, according to Dow Jones. These figures represent an uptick from the previous month's readings of 3.2% and 0.2%, respectively. As for the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy costs due to their volatility, it is expected to have risen by 4.3% compared to the previous year, a slight decrease from the 4.7% annual gain observed in July. The monthly core increase is projected to be 0.2%.
Furthermore, Wall Street seems to have factored in an expectation that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain current interest rates at its upcoming meeting. As of Wednesday morning, Fed funds futures pricing data indicates a 93% probability of rates staying unchanged.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.

USOIL
Tight Crude Supply Helps Oil Prices Climb, With Brent Eyeing $100 Per Barrel
Oil prices reached a 10-month high due to expectations of ongoing tight crude supply. Saudi Arabia and Russia decided to extend their crude oil production cuts by 1.3 million barrels per day until the end of the year, creating a substantial market deficit in the fourth quarter, as reported by the International Energy Agency (IEA). Bank of America analysts suggest that these supply cuts could push Brent futures above $100 per barrel before the year's end.
The spread between front-month Brent futures contracts and those for delivery six months later widened to $4.68 per barrel, indicating a tighter supply in the market.
Concerns lingered regarding the European and US economies, with investors closely watching the release of US consumer price index data for potential insights into future interest rate adjustments. There were expectations of an interest rate increase by the European Central Bank at its upcoming meeting.
The IEA adjusted its fourth-quarter demand growth forecast downward by 600,000 barrels per day, roughly matching the additional voluntary cut made by Saudi Arabia. On the other hand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its optimistic outlook for global oil demand growth in 2023 and 2024.
In Libya, four oil ports that were temporarily closed due to severe storms reopened on Wednesday.
WTI confirmed its continuation pattern and going toward the 90 target. Price is going toward the upper parallel of the long down channel at the 91 level followed by the 94 important level.

Crypto

FTX's Last-Minute Changes to Asset Sales
FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange currently facing bankruptcy, has made last-minute changes to its proposal for selling its Bitcoin and crypto holdings in response to concerns from the US Trustee, a branch of the Department of Justice. The original plan aimed to liquidate $3.4 billion in crypto assets, causing worries about its impact on the market.
In the initial proposal, FTX had suggested appointing Galaxy Digital as the investment manager to oversee asset sales, with a weekly cap of $100 million per token, potentially increasing to $200 million for individual tokens.
The revised proposal no longer requires advance public notice of transactions due to their potential to affect market prices. Instead, FTX will keep the US Trustee and creditor committees informed. FTX's holdings as of August 31 include Solana (SOL) at $1.16 billion, Bitcoin (BTC) at $560 million, Ethereum (ETH) at $192 million, and several other assets.
Notably, a significant portion of FTX's SOL tokens is locked until 2025-2028, preventing a sudden massive dump of SOL tokens.
FTX's last-minute changes aim to minimize market disruptions but raise transparency questions. The final decision by Judge John Dorsey in the Delaware courtroom and market reactions will be closely watched. US CPI today may have an impact on risk sentiment and on risky assets which may affect the crypto market too.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Markets Await Key Economic Data and Arm's NYSE Debut
Stock futures rose on Thursday morning as traders geared up for the release of the August Producer Price Index, which gauges wholesale inflation.
S&P 500 futures increased by 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 futures also saw a 0.39% uptick.
Arm, the British chip design company established in 1990, is set to commence trading on the New York Stock Exchange today, marking its first appearance since being taken private by SoftBank in 2016. On Thursday, SoftBank's shares dipped slightly following Arm's initial public offering pricing at $51 per share.
Traders were closely watching the August Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, showed a 0.3% increase from the previous month and a 4.3% rise from the same period a year ago, in line with economists' expectations.
Headline inflation also grew by 0.6% on a monthly basis and 3.7% from the prior year, meeting economists' predictions.
The August CPI data is not anticipated to alter the Federal Reserve's stance, with a 97% probability of unchanged interest rates next week, according to CME FedWatch Tool data.
Another key inflation indicator to be released on Thursday is the August producer price index, which economists expect to have increased by 0.4%, following July's surprising 0.3% rise in wholesale prices. Additionally, retail sales and jobless claims data are scheduled to be released before the market opens.
Nasdaq is currently retracing towards the 15,300-support level and aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. Additionally, the median line of the long bullish channel continues to support the trend.
USOIL

Crude Oil Surges Past $93 as Supply Concerns Trump Economic Worries
Brent crude oil prices surged above $93 per barrel, marking their highest level in 10 months, as concerns over tightening supply for the remainder of 2023 outweighed worries about slowing economic growth and increasing US oil inventories. The International Energy Agency (IEA) highlighted a market deficit in the fourth quarter due to extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. Although a bearish U.S. inventory report caused a brief dip in prices, market sentiment remained bullish.
Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM noted that the market's resilience in the face of bearish inventory data demonstrates the prevailing sentiment. The tight oil balance is expected to be the primary driver of oil prices for the rest of 2023.
Gains on Oil followed a previous decline in prices triggered by a U.S. supply report indicating an increase in crude and refined product stocks.
Supply concerns continue to support oil prices as producers remain committed to limited production. OPEC recently updated its demand forecasts and predicted a supply deficit for 2023 if production cuts are maintained.
Meanwhile, investor attention remains on the European Central Bank's (ECB) upcoming interest rate decision. While expectations initially leaned toward a pause in rate hikes, a Reuters report suggested the ECB might raise its inflation forecast for the next year to more than 3%, making a case for higher interest rates.
WTI confirmed its continuation pattern and touched the 90 target. Prices are going toward the upper parallel of the long down channel at the 91-level, followed by the significant 94 level.

Crypto

Franklin Templeton Joins Bitcoin ETF Race, but Caution Prevails in Crypto Markets
Franklin Templeton, a major financial institution, has entered the Bitcoin ETF race, submitting a filing with the SEC on September 12th for a Coinbase-custodied ETF called the Franklin Bitcoin ETF.
This announcement initially boosted Bitcoin's price from $25K, leading to increased social interest in Franklin. However, it's important to note that the initial excitement has faded, and experts caution against overreactions, comparing it to past ETF filings. Despite the temporary buzz, the traditional financial sector appears to be gradually embracing the idea of a Bitcoin ETF for the US market.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, and it is currently awaiting the breach of the 25,000-support level, which could trigger a new downward trend and change in BTC's direction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Strong Dow Jones Rally Fueled by Wall Street IPO Optimism
The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw its strongest rally in over a month, thanks to positive developments in the Wall Street IPO market and favorable economic data. The S&P 500 climbed 0.84% to reach 4,505.10, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.81%, reaching 13,926.05.
Arm's shares experienced a remarkable surge of 24.7% on its first day of trading, following its IPO priced at $51 a share, which closed at $63.59 a share. This IPO has sparked hope for a revitalization of the IPO market.
August's producer price index indicated that core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.2%, aligning with economists' expectations. However, the headline number rose by 0.7%, surpassing the anticipated 0.4% increase.
In addition, August's retail sales exceeded expectations, with a 0.6% increase compared to the expected 0.1% rise, and excluding autos, retail sales also rose by 0.6%, surpassing the forecasted 0.4% increase.
Nasdaq is challenging the 15600-level aiming for the 16,000 mark, its previous peak. This higher level poses a significant challenge for further advancement. The risk in the market today will help the Nasdaq make new highs, especially with the ARM performance.

USOIL

Oil Prices Rise for Third Week on Production Cuts
Oil prices were set for a third consecutive weekly increase due to a combination of factors. Saudi Arabia, with support from Russia, extended its production cuts, leading to a decrease in global oil inventories. This move pushed both Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude benchmarks to their highest levels since November. Additionally, positive signs from the Chinese economy, the world's largest oil importer, boosted optimism for oil demand growth. China's industrial output and retail sales showed better-than-expected growth in August. Oil refinery processing also increased significantly from the previous year.
Furthermore, the outlook for borrowing costs is improving. While US headline inflation rose in August, the core figure moderated, potentially hinting at a pause in interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. However, the possibility of a final increase in November remains open. The European Central Bank recently implemented its tenth consecutive increase but suggested that it might stop there.
Wall Street is increasingly favoring oil trading as confidence in the OPEC+ decision to tighten oil output remains strong. Analysts believe that the oil market will remain tight in the fourth quarter of the year.
WTI touched its 91-confluence point target. Technically, this level is important for a correction, and we are currently witnessing a slight pullback in prices. This correction may take the price back towards the 88-support level. If a breakout occurs above the current resistance level, the next target will be 93.80.

BTC

BTC Surges, Altcoins Rise on Positive China Data, SOL Faces Liquidation Risk
As Bitcoin (BTC) surges above $26,600, alternative cryptocurrencies like Solana's SOL face potential liquidation of leveraged positions. Positive data on China's economy has boosted confidence, driving the prices of altcoins such as XRP, Ether (ETH), SOL, Tron's TRX, and Dogecoin (DOGE) higher. However, SOL saw an 8% drop on Monday due to concerns about FTX's Solana holdings being sold off in a court filing, making bearish altcoin traders vulnerable to liquidation.
Funding rates in perpetual futures contracts have been consistently negative, indicating bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, open interest in SOL's futures has increased by over 16%, reaching a one-month high at $338 million, according to Coinglass data. These factors suggest growing bearish bets on SOL.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues to be bearish supported by the 25000 level but the correction toward the 26000 area was a normal correction. Furthermore, both the 100-day moving average (100MA) and the 200-day moving average (200MA) are approaching a crossover on both daily and weekly charts, suggesting a convergence toward a potential bearish price movement.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

US Stock Futures Dip Ahead of Federal Reserve Meeting
On Monday morning, US stock futures experienced a slight dip as investors turned their attention to the upcoming Federal Reserve policy decision. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures saw minor declines of around 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively. Last week, both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq ended in negative territory, marking their second consecutive week of losses.
Investors have high expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates at their current levels during this week's policy meeting. Traders are eager to gain a better understanding of the central bank's position on inflation going forward.
Recent inflation data largely aligned with economists' predictions. Although the producer price index exceeded expectations, the Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, matched the anticipated figure. Furthermore, the core consumer price index for August showed a slightly higher increase than expected, rising by 0.3% month-over-month compared to the estimated 0.2%.
Nasdaq is forming a price concentration on the daily chart, indicating weakness in the price. The next key level to watch is the median line, followed by the 100MA.

USOIL

Crude Oil Prices Surge on Supply Deficit Concerns and Geopolitical Factors
US West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 72 cents to $91.49 as of September 18, driven by concerns of a widening supply deficit in the fourth quarter due to extended supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia. These prices mark the highest levels since November and are on pace for the largest quarterly gains since the first quarter of 2022, influenced by geopolitical factors.
Citi recently predicted that Brent prices could exceed $100 per barrel within the year. Saudi Arabia and Russia jointly extended supply cuts of 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) until the year-end.
The sustainability of these supply cuts into the following year remains uncertain, as higher prices could incentivize increased US shale oil production. Meanwhile, concerns persist regarding oil demand, particularly in China, a major driver of global demand. China's post-pandemic economic recovery has been sluggish, although its oil imports have remained robust. The uncertain pace of economic progress poses a significant demand-side risk.
Despite concerns about reduced demand from Europe and China due to economic slowdowns, the oil market has experienced a relentless price rally, reflecting the tightness in supply. Central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, will be closely watched for their interest rate decisions. There is growing consensus that peak interest rates may be approaching, as inflationary pressures have been effectively managed. However, the timing of central banks' rate cuts remains uncertain, with potential implications for economic growth and oil demand.
WTI is breaking the 91 level and touching the 92 going toward the 93-resistance level. The trend continues bullish the 94-93 area will be the next challenge for the price as it also represents the 50% Fibonacci level.


Crypto

Bitcoin Surges Despite 'Death Cross' as Fed Rate Expectations Drive Market
BTC has surged by 8% since the appearance of the "death cross" on its daily chart on September 11. This uptick is attributed to traders' expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain steady interest rates for the remainder of the year. Bitcoin reached $27,220, its highest point since August 31, fueled by the belief that the death cross signal, which occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, is not a reliable indicator on its own.
Market sentiment is influenced by Fed funds futures, which suggest a 99% likelihood that the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged this week, along with a 69% chance of no action in November and a 58% probability of the same in December. The Fed has already raised rates by 525 basis points since March 2022 to combat inflation, which played a role in the previous year's crypto crash.
Analysts anticipate that the Fed will maintain its current interest rate forecast, but some do not expect the final projected rate hike to materialize. The recent bitcoin rally may be linked to the perception that the Fed's tightening cycle is concluding, as the cryptocurrency is highly sensitive to changes in interest rate expectations due to its liquidity-driven nature.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues to be bearish supported by the 25000 nut a correction toward the 26000 area was a normal correction. The BTC needs to break the 28000 resistance area to form a new hope of possible bullish direction toward the 31000 area.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Hold Steady Ahead of Federal Reserve's September Meeting
Stock futures traded relatively unchanged on Tuesday as Wall Street prepared for the commencement of the Federal Reserve's two-day September policy meeting. S&P 500 futures also remained stable, while Nasdaq 100 futures experienced a slight 0.1% decline.
It is not anticipated that the Fed will raise interest rates this week, as traders are currently pricing in a 99% probability of the central bank abstaining from a rate hike, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool, which tracks pricing in Fed funds futures. As of early Tuesday, traders are assigning only a 29% likelihood of a rate hike in November.
On Monday, six out of the 11 major S&P sectors ended the session positively, with energy leading the way with a 0.7% gain, while consumer discretionary was the poorest-performing sector, posting a decline of approximately 1%.
In terms of technical analysis, the Nasdaq is showing a concentration of price on the daily chart and has retraced towards the 15225-support level, suggesting vulnerability in the price leading up to the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. The next significant level to monitor is the median line, followed by the 100-day moving average (100MA).

USOIL

Oil Prices Rise on Supply Concerns Despite Weaker US Shale Output
Oil prices climbed for a fourth consecutive day on concerns of a supply deficit. Weak U.S. shale output, coupled with extended production cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia, drove prices higher.
In September 2023, U.S. shale oil production is set to drop for the third consecutive month, reaching 9.39 million bpd, down from 9.433 million bpd in August and a record 9.476 million bpd in July, per the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The Permian Basin leads the decline, with a projected 26,000 bpd reduction, followed by the Eagle Ford Basin, expected to drop by 17,000 bpd. This marks the largest monthly decline since December last year. Despite this, the EIA maintains its forecast of record U.S. oil production for 2023, at 12.76 million bpd, with an increase to 13.09 million bpd in 2024. Rising oil prices persist despite improved drilling efficiency.
Analysts cited concerns over supply constraints and technical factors as supporting oil prices. However, they cautioned that the market's ascent into overbought territory could leave it vulnerable to a correction.
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser revised the company's long-term demand outlook, projecting global demand to reach 110 million barrels per day by 2030, down from a previous estimate of 125 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, defended OPEC+ supply cuts, emphasizing the need for light-handed regulation to curb volatility and expressing uncertainty about Chinese demand, European growth, and central bank actions to address inflation.
WTI is continuing up touching the 92.6 level. The trend is bullish and the 94-93 area will be the next challenge for the price as it also represents the 50% Fibonacci level.


Crypto

Crypto Prices Rally Ahead of Federal Reserve's Rate Decision, Bitcoin Shows Resilience
Cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, experienced a rise in prices on Tuesday as traders displayed bullish sentiment in anticipation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision scheduled for Wednesday. Bitcoin's price saw a 1% increase in the past 24 hours, reaching approximately $27,100. However, it retreated from its peak above $27,400, the highest level this month. Bitcoin has been hovering around the $26,000 mark for over a month, characterized by minimal volatility and trading activity as investor interest waned.
Similar to traditional stock markets like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, the crypto market is poised to react to the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. While the central bank is expected to keep borrowing costs steady, investors are closely watching for signals regarding future rate hikes in November or the maintenance of current rates. Historically, higher interest rates have weighed on both Bitcoin and stocks, as investors tend to favor risk-free assets during such periods.
Before the Fed's decision, traders have become notably bullish, particularly in Bitcoin perpetual futures, the most liquid market in the cryptocurrency world. Open interest on Binance, the largest crypto exchange, increased by 3% in the past 24 hours to exceed $3.2 billion, with a prevailing bullish sentiment, according to Coinglass data. Analyst Yuya Hasegawa from Bitbank noted that some crypto market participants might be getting ahead of themselves in anticipation of the Fed meeting, where rate hikes are not expected. This surge in Bitcoin's price may slow down as no significant economic data releases are expected until after the conclusion of the Fed meeting later this month.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues being bearish supported by the 25000 while 27400 is the resistance area. The BTC needs to break the 28000-resistance area to make a new possible bullish movement toward the 31000 area.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Rise Ahead of Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decision
Stock futures gained on Wednesday morning ahead of the latest interest rate decision from the Federal Reserve. The 10-year Treasury yield experienced a decline on Wednesday, following its recent surge to the highest level since 2007 the day before. Investors are optimistic that market interest rates will begin to decrease as inflation subsides, and the Federal Reserve scales back its tightening measures.
There is a widespread expectation that, in its 2 p.m. ET announcement, the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at their current level. However, investors will closely monitor the summary of economic projections and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for hints regarding the possibility of one more rate hike this year.
In July, the Federal Reserve increased its benchmark rate to the highest point in over 22 years. Currently, futures prices suggest only a modest 27% chance of the Federal Reserve raising rates in November.
Trading activity has been relatively subdued throughout the week, with many investors adopting a cautious stance in anticipation of the Federal Reserve meeting.
In terms of technical analysis, the Nasdaq is showing a concentration of price on the daily chart and has retraced towards the 15225-support level, suggesting vulnerability in the price leading up to the Federal Reserve meeting tomorrow. The next significant level to monitor is the median line, followed by the 100-day moving average (100MA).

USOIL

Crude Oil Prices Dip as Market Anticipates Fed Meeting
Crude oil prices dipped today after reaching a 10-month high earlier this week. This drop was driven by profit-taking and anticipation of a Fed meeting to discuss interest rates.
In the US, declining crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, have added bullish sentiment to oil prices, with Total Energies reportedly buying up U.S. crude due to supply tightness.
Higher oil prices could complicate the Fed's plan to stop interest rate hikes, as they may lead to higher energy bills and inflation. This situation remains fluid, and the market is closely watching the Fed's decision.
Overall, the oil market is taking a brief pause, awaiting the outcome of the Fed meeting, with prices hovering around $90 for WTI and $92 for Brent. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser revised the company's long-term demand outlook, projecting global demand to reach 110 million barrels per day by 2030, down from a previous estimate of 125 million barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's Energy Minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, defended OPEC+ supply cuts, emphasizing the need for light-handed regulation to curb volatility and expressing uncertainty about Chinese demand, European growth, and central bank actions to address inflation.
WTI after reaching the 92.6 level is coming back making a correction for the second day. 89.5 is the actual support level followed by 88.00.


Crypto

Cryptocurrency Prices Rise Ahead of Fed Decision, Potentially Signaling Increased Volatility
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies saw gains ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, potentially signaling increased volatility in crypto markets. Bitcoin's price recently surpassed $27,150, breaking free from the $26,000 range it had been trading in for the past month with low volatility. Analysts are closely watching the Federal Reserve's decision, as cryptocurrencies, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, are expected to react to the central bank's rate announcement.
The Fed's decision, set to be revealed at 2 p.m. Eastern, is anticipated to maintain current borrowing costs, with attention shifting to the November announcement for potential rate hikes or measures to address inflation. Bitcoin's performance is closely tied to interest rates, with higher returns on safer investments reducing demand for riskier assets like cryptocurrencies.
Crypto markets could experience increased volatility, given the heavy bullish positioning in Bitcoin futures contracts, totaling over $3.2 billion. Binance, the world's largest crypto futures market, reported a three-day increase in Bitcoin open interest, reaching $3.3 billion. With many leveraged bullish bets, a hawkish move by the Fed could trigger widespread selling, leading to significant Bitcoin price declines.
BTC has recently shown a double top pattern on the weekly chart, The trend continues to be bearish supported by the 25000 while 27400 is the resistance area. The BTC will wait for today's Fed decision to find direction while the downtrend in the short term pays resistance level.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Extend Declines as Investors Grapple with Fed's Rate Outlook
Stock futures declined on Thursday, intensifying losses for the week. This occurred as investors adjusted to the Federal Reserve's intention to maintain interest rates at elevated levels for a longer duration than previously anticipated.
On Wednesday, the three major stock indices concluded the trading session at their lowest points. This came after the Federal Reserve announced its decision to keep interest rates unchanged while predicting another rate hike before the year's end. Furthermore, the central bank indicated a reduction in the number of rate cuts expected next year. Essentially, this signals a need to maintain higher interest rates for an extended period due to the continued resilience of the economy and the necessity for a sustainable slowdown in inflation.
This week, the technology sector bore the brunt of the losses, as investors reconsidered their positions in growth-oriented stocks given the prospect of persistently high interest rates. Companies like Tesla, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, and Nvidia saw declines in premarket trading on Thursday.
Additionally, Klaviyo, a marketing automation firm that made its public market debut on Wednesday, experienced a nearly 2% decrease in premarket trading on Thursday. This added to a series of promising initial public offerings (IPOs) that witnessed declines during the course of this week.
Yesterday, Nasdaq declined, breaking its potential support level and heading toward the 100MA at 14750.

USOIL

Oil Prices Slide with Fed's Rate Hike Expectations and Stronger Dollar
Oil prices declined on Thursday, following the steepest drop in a month during the previous session. This drop was attributed to rising expectations of US interest rate hikes, which outweighed the impact of reductions in US crude inventories.
The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates in its recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, coupled with hints of a year-end rate hike, added pressure to oil prices. This stance, which could dampen economic growth and fuel demand, also pushed the U.S. dollar to its highest level since early March, increasing the cost of commodities like oil for buyers using other currencies.
Despite data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicating a decrease in crude inventories in line with expectations, the oil market remained relatively unmoved. Analysts noted that the stock draw was driven primarily by robust oil exports, while gasoline and diesel inventories decreased due to autumn maintenance by refiners. However, concerns about tight global supply and ongoing production cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies helped limit the decline in prices.
WTI continued the correction going toward the 88.00 support level. A breakout will take prices toward the 85 area.

Crypto

Cryptocurrencies Slip as Fed Decision Drives Risk-Off Sentiment
Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies faced a decline on Thursday as risk-sensitive assets weakened following the Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy decision. Cryptocurrencies now appear poised to revert to a pattern of range-bound trading that has defined recent months.
Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin's price has dipped by 2%, settling around $26,728. This drop came after it peaked near $27,300 on Wednesday. The Federal Reserve chose to maintain interest rates but hinted at potential future increases. As a result, the largest digital asset finds itself back in the $26,000 zone, characterizing a month-long period of stagnant activity marked by low volatility and trading volumes in the crypto markets.
Cryptocurrencies, like the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, reacted to the Fed's move, though the response was relatively subdued as the decision to pause rate hikes was largely anticipated. The future path of interest rates will continue to impact Bitcoin, with higher returns on risk-free assets potentially reducing the appeal of riskier crypto investments. The Fed's next monetary policy decision is not expected until November.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains entrenched in a bearish trend, with the 25000 level serving as support and the current resistance standing at 27200, marked by the third level of the downtrend line. In a broader, long-term perspective, BTC appears to be confined within a price range.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Stock Futures Rebound Following Fed Rate Signals
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both experienced gains of 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. These upward movements followed a three-day decline in all three stock indices. Investors were reacting to signals from the Federal Reserve indicating its intention to maintain higher interest rates, potentially exerting pressure on risk assets such as stocks.
This week, the S&P 500 and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite have declined by 2.7% and 3.5% respectively, marking their worst weekly performance since March and marking their third consecutive week of losses. Additionally, concerns arose among investors regarding a potential government shutdown, which could negatively impact consumer confidence and further slow down the economy. House Republican leaders initiated a recess on Thursday.
The Nasdaq continues its selloff and is approaching the support level at 14,630, while also approaching the neckline of a bearish pattern. A breach of this pattern would likely lead the price down towards the 14,400-14,260 area, where the 61.8% Fibonacci level represents the next substantial support.

USOIL
Oil Prices Face Weekly Decline with Fed's Prolonged Rate Signals
Oil prices faced a potential weekly loss due to the Federal Reserve's indication of prolonged high-interest rates. After three weeks of gains totaling 10%, profit-taking, and economic concerns dampened the rally. Russia's decision to limit fuel exports contributed to upward pressure on oil prices, and market fundamentals remained positive.
Both WTI and Brent benchmarks were set for a minor weekly decline following three weeks of strong gains, reaching their highest levels since November 2022. The rally, initially fueled by tightening crude and fuel markets and reduced U.S. inventories, was halted by the Fed's message of prolonged higher interest rates.
While the Fed kept rates unchanged at its September meeting, it signaled the possibility of another rate hike later in the year due to persistent inflation. This "higher for longer" message from the Fed weighed on risk assets, including crude oil.
Economic concerns in Europe, particularly fears of a recession in the Eurozone, could further pressure oil prices, according to market analyst Tina Teng. Additionally, profit-taking after the recent rally contributed to the decline in oil prices this week.
WTI is going back to the green side after finding support at 88.5. WTI's next level will be the 92.5 resistance point.

Crypto

Bitcoin Faces Challenges due to Rising Interest Rates
In a volatile economic climate with surging interest rates, Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market face growing challenges. The recent 16-year high in the 10-year US Treasury yield signals a significant shift in finance.
The Federal Reserve's recent signals are notable, with the 10-year Treasury Yield hitting 4.49%, the highest since October 2007, and the Real 10-Year Yield at 2.11%, the highest since March 2009.
This environment poses substantial challenges for Bitcoin and crypto, as rising yields often deter speculative investments in favor of more stable assets. The "higher for longer" approach and the Fed's balance sheet reduction also affect crypto liquidity.
Moreover, concerns about a potential recession and the uncertainty of crypto trading during such periods add to the market's challenges.
BTC continues to be in a downtrend, with the resistance level at 27,500 representing the third level of the downtrend line. The next support is at 25,000, and if it gets broken, it could open the door for further sell-offs.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

Nike's Strong Earnings Propel Futures Higher, Wall Street Faces Monthly and Quarterly Losses
Nasdaq 100 futures rose by 0.6%, while S&P 500 futures saw a 0.4% increase. In premarket trading, Nike shares surged by over 7% following the company's impressive fiscal first-quarter earnings report, which exceeded analyst forecasts.
Wall Street is coming off a winning session, as the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield backed off from a fresh 15-year high. Those gains, however, did little to mitigate equities’ sharp losses for the month and the quarter.
The S&P 500 is set to finish the month down 4.6% and the quarter lower by 3.4%. The Nasdaq Composite is off nearly 6% in September, and down 4.3% for the quarter. This month will be the worst in 2023 for both indexes. The Dow is on track for a 3% decline this month and a 2.2% fall for the quarter.
Investors are now turning their attention to the latest personal consumption expenditures price index reading due Friday. The PCE reading is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric. Economists expect that the core PCE advanced 3.9% year over year in August and gained 0.2% on a monthly basis, according to Dow Jones.
On the weekly Nasdaq chart, a double top pattern has been confirmed, with the neckline located in the 14,250-14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could lead the price toward the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel.

USOIL

Oil Prices Expected to Rise on Saudi and Russian Supply Cuts
Saudi and Russian supply cuts will likely push oil prices higher in the next three months, but the journey to $100 per barrel may be brief due to lingering economic risks, according to a Reuters survey of 42 economists and analysts. US crude is forecasted to average $79.64 per barrel in 2023 and $82.99 per barrel in 2024.
Analysts believe that Saudi Arabia and Russia will continue to influence oil prices as they extend supply cuts into 2024 to avoid price drops while managing higher government expenses. The poll indicates that oil prices will likely remain above $80 per barrel into the next year, with Brent expected to average $89.85 in the last quarter of 2023.
However, the much-discussed $100 per barrel price level appears unsustainable due to artificial supply shortages and economic fragility. Some analysts anticipate that increased production from US shale, as well as rising output from Iran and Venezuela, may offset OPEC+ supply cuts to some extent.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a market deficit through 2023, with oil demand expected to rise by 1 million barrels per day in 2024. Still, if output cuts are not maintained at the beginning of the next year, the market balance could shift to a surplus.
Higher global rates could potentially lead to a global economic recession in 2024, affecting oil demand, along with concerns about the Chinese economy.
WTI reached a new high at the $95 level and found resistance at 50%. A potential breakout is still possible as the price didn't show any signs or patterns of a probable correction. If this happens, reaching the $100 level will be achievable.

Crypto
Bitcoin's Price Takes Unusual Plunge on Binance Cryptocurrency Exchange
In the latest Bitcoin news, the price of the leading cryptocurrency, based on market capitalization, has seen some gains on shorter timeframes. However, traders on the Binance cryptocurrency exchange were taken aback when the BTC price unexpectedly plunged.
According to the cryptocurrency report by Colin Wu, Bitcoin's price plummeted on the trading platform, dropping to as low as $2,700 from its current levels. This crash, unlike previous occurrences, occurred at different times.
The incident was documented at 16:17 UTC+8 on the exchange's perpetual futures platform, one of its most popular trading instruments. Changpeng "CZ" Zhao, the CEO of the exchange, responded to the incident.
In a prior tweet, CZ explained that the problem stemmed from an issue with the trading pair's display, and the User Interface remained unaffected, as did the APIs connected to the platform.
Fortunately, this incident did not trigger any stop losses or margin calls for BTC/USDT futures positions, providing relief for traders on the platform.
BTC initially reached the 27,000 level but retraced its price after a month, fluctuating between the 27,000 mark and finding support at the 25,000 level.

 

[zForex]

US INDICES:

S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 Futures Dip as Government Shutdown Averted, but Concerns Linger
S&P 500 futures experienced a 0.2% decline, while Nasdaq-100 futures saw a 0.1% drop. The Senate successfully passed a continuing resolution just hours before the midnight deadline on Saturday. President Joe Biden promptly signed the bill into law, ensuring the government remains operational for an additional 45 days. This extended period allows lawmakers the opportunity to finalize funding legislation. However, concerns linger among investors as there are unresolved disagreements regarding overall government spending, border issues, and the situation in Ukraine, potentially leading to another shutdown battle in the future.
September marked a challenging month for both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, with the S&P 500 index ending the month down by 4.9% and the quarter 3.7% lower. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite, which is technology-heavy, experienced a 5.8% drop in the month and a 4.1% decline in the quarter. Investors will closely monitor economic data scheduled for release on Monday, including purchasing and construction spending reports. Later in the week, attention will shift to a series of reports that provide insights into the state of the labor market, culminating in Friday's highly anticipated monthly payroll data.
On the weekly Nasdaq chart, a double top pattern has been confirmed, with the neckline located in the 14,250-14,500 area. A breakout above these levels could lead the price toward the 200-day moving average on the daily chart and the lower boundary of the current long-term bullish channel.

USOIL

Oil Prices Surge on the Back of a Tight Supply Outlook and Aversion of Government Shutdown
Oil prices rose $1 on Monday, rebounding from losses at the end of the previous week. This increase was driven by renewed investor focus on a tight global supply outlook. Additionally, the avoidance of a U.S. government shutdown contributed to improved risk appetite in the market.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia (OPEC+), are not expected to make changes to their current oil output policy at an upcoming meeting. This decision was indicated by four OPEC+ sources.
OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais expressed confidence in oil demand, characterizing it as resilient this year. However, a Reuters survey revealed that OPEC oil output increased for the second consecutive month in September, primarily due to rises in production in Nigeria and Iran, despite Saudi Arabia's cuts.
Turkey also announced plans to restart operations on a pipeline from Iraq, which had been suspended for around six months, adding more crude supply to the market.
Furthermore, there is speculation that Saudi Arabia may ease its additional voluntary supply cut of 1 million barrels per day, citing concerns over Chinese demand. However, positive Chinese factory activity data provided some confidence, indicating a potential stabilization of the Chinese economy.
Despite the positive news from China, European manufacturing data showed that the Eurozone, Germany, and Britain remained in a downturn in September, which could impact oil demand.
WTI reached a new high at the $95 level and found resistance at the 50% level. A potential breakout is still likely as the price didn't show any signs or patterns of a possible correction. If this happens, reaching the $100 dollar level will be achievable.

Crypto

Bitcoin Surges Beyond $28,400, Setting the Stage for an Optimistic 'Uptober'
Bitcoin surged past $28,400 for the first time since mid-August, sparking optimism among investors for "Uptober." Wallet data reveals that BTC wallets holding 10-10K BTC have accumulated 415,000 BTC (approximately $1.17 billion) since September 1st without trading or using their coins as collateral. This accumulation, occurring during a period of sluggish price movement, suggests the possibility of Bitcoin reaching a $30,000 market value.
Historically, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin's price performance, and this trend seems to be continuing with Bitcoin's recent jump above $28,400, resulting in nearly 10% weekly gains and the liquidation of over $97 million in BTC shorts over the past 24 hours. Experts anticipate the rally to persist throughout October, citing significant buying flows and speculation surrounding the approval of BlackRock Inc.'s Bitcoin ETF proposals by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Bitcoin may face resistance at the $30,000 level as it continues its upward trajectory.