Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
- Start date
- Watchers 91
What a pratt: The definition of a scam is that someone is trying to con you out of money. What money have you paid? Give up trading,
Hi Guys, sorry for the absence last week, I have been spending some time helping a family member out with a business dispute. We got everything sorted out on Friday though so I am back at the desk for this coming week!
I'll update the AUD/CAD trade maybe later tonight or tomorrow and I think a new report is up on the site looking at some price action signals for the coming week.
It's the start of a new month too, so whatever your results are for November, put them to one side and let's concentrate on trading well in December and hopefully finishing the month in the green!
See when you manage to string a few months of positive gains together? That's when you look back at your results and think "wow, I am actually doing this - I am making some consistent profits!" It does wonders for your confidence.
And see if you haven't been managing to string together a few profitable months? I guarantee that there isn't too much that you have to change before you see some big improvements. The margin between profit and loss is very slim. It might only require a few small tweaks to really get you in your groove.
It's likely that the markets could being to quieten down now in the run up to the holiday season - I would imagine that once we get the rate decisions this week and the FOMC out of the way a lot of the movement could dry up until into January.
Good luck for the week ahead!
I'll update the AUD/CAD trade maybe later tonight or tomorrow and I think a new report is up on the site looking at some price action signals for the coming week.
It's the start of a new month too, so whatever your results are for November, put them to one side and let's concentrate on trading well in December and hopefully finishing the month in the green!
See when you manage to string a few months of positive gains together? That's when you look back at your results and think "wow, I am actually doing this - I am making some consistent profits!" It does wonders for your confidence.
And see if you haven't been managing to string together a few profitable months? I guarantee that there isn't too much that you have to change before you see some big improvements. The margin between profit and loss is very slim. It might only require a few small tweaks to really get you in your groove.
It's likely that the markets could being to quieten down now in the run up to the holiday season - I would imagine that once we get the rate decisions this week and the FOMC out of the way a lot of the movement could dry up until into January.
Good luck for the week ahead!
I couldn't have said that better myself! Excellent summary.
Welcome to the thread shaharyarlove.s
Taking Profit - The PAST Strategy
I might have been occupied with other things last week but my plucky AUD/CAD short was still working away in my absence.
It got up to 400 pips in profit at one stage but has since retraced a bit.
I would get a little bit jumpy now if price got above the trendline now as shown in the attached chart - but my ultimate no-no is the high where my stop is.
I still don't see any reason yet to close it out - as long as it looks like it is working it is best left alone
I might have been occupied with other things last week but my plucky AUD/CAD short was still working away in my absence.
It got up to 400 pips in profit at one stage but has since retraced a bit.
I would get a little bit jumpy now if price got above the trendline now as shown in the attached chart - but my ultimate no-no is the high where my stop is.
I still don't see any reason yet to close it out - as long as it looks like it is working it is best left alone
Attachments
EURJPY
Evening Gents,
EUR/AUD has been teasing me a bit, sort of making all the right moves to roll over but then pulling out at the last minute!
I have managed to get a few shorts on EUR/JPY though, after a nice long wick was posted a few days ago.
There are some really nice reversals setting up across quite a few of the daily charts at the minute - we should be on the lookout to take advantage if they develop into new swings.
Things will begin to quieten down soon for the run into the Christmas holidays, so trading opportunities between now and 2014 might be limited.
All the best!
Nigel
Evening Gents,
EUR/AUD has been teasing me a bit, sort of making all the right moves to roll over but then pulling out at the last minute!
I have managed to get a few shorts on EUR/JPY though, after a nice long wick was posted a few days ago.
There are some really nice reversals setting up across quite a few of the daily charts at the minute - we should be on the lookout to take advantage if they develop into new swings.
Things will begin to quieten down soon for the run into the Christmas holidays, so trading opportunities between now and 2014 might be limited.
All the best!
Nigel
Attachments
Morning Gents,
The Aussie sold off strongly on some poor data last night.
Any short positions that any of us had on EUR/AUD should be closed now either at a loss or at break-even.
The market has forced its way above 1.5 and, unless there is a remarkable sell off in the pair at some stage today, I think that the bulls have firmly wrestled control of the market back from the bears.
We should only have small losses and any damage to our account equity should be limited. So we live to fight another day, and wait for the set-up that does work out for us to come along.
On the chart below there are 4 potential set-ups marked - 3 out of the four would have been losers. Look at the 1 that was successful? Lots of opportunity to make plenty of pips there - in fact anyone who took that trade could well be still in it
The Aussie sold off strongly on some poor data last night.
Any short positions that any of us had on EUR/AUD should be closed now either at a loss or at break-even.
The market has forced its way above 1.5 and, unless there is a remarkable sell off in the pair at some stage today, I think that the bulls have firmly wrestled control of the market back from the bears.
We should only have small losses and any damage to our account equity should be limited. So we live to fight another day, and wait for the set-up that does work out for us to come along.
On the chart below there are 4 potential set-ups marked - 3 out of the four would have been losers. Look at the 1 that was successful? Lots of opportunity to make plenty of pips there - in fact anyone who took that trade could well be still in it
Attachments
Exactly, just reading the price is the best way in my opinion foodaba.
I like to think of it like this - the data feed that comes into your platform contains exactly the same information as mine, and everyone else's. It's pretty much just open close high and low.
Everything else we put on our charts is derived from that same data - indicators are just a different way of displaying it. A MACD or RSI can't tell us anything more than what we can learn to see from the price already ourselves. We shouldn't need an oscillator to tell us that price is running out of energy - we can see that from tired price action, smaller higher highs and higher lows, long wicks, indecision.
When we start looking at indicators we start to see potentially conflicting signals, we question ourselves, and it takes our attention away from the most important thing, the price. I'm not saying that people shouldn't have indicators on their charts, I am saying that if you do, you should have a clear idea of their capabilities are.
When I came to understand what their capabilities were, I just decided they took up too much room on my screen
Looks spot on foodaba - I see nice daily candles on GBPUSD, long wicks, a very clear trendline, a break/retest and then a fall - textbook. I hope the market now gives you the opportunity to profit. You have done your job perfectly, all you need to do now is wait to see what the market is going to pay out. It might give you profit this time, maybe it won't. But if you keep doing your job well, it will pay out sooner or later - it's inevitable
Well done
As long as its only a small loss foodaba, don't worry, you'll get it back soon enough.
I'm not sure whether I would wait for a close below though, what if the price moves 100 pips below the trendline before it closes? Far better to jump in on the break I think, if it is a false break we can always take a small loss and close the trade. I would be perfectly happy to pay 10 - 20 pips for the chance to be in right at the start of a move.
There might also be another chance on GBPUSD if we get a retrace back up to the trendline - I have defaced your nice chart, hope you don't mind
I'm not sure whether I would wait for a close below though, what if the price moves 100 pips below the trendline before it closes? Far better to jump in on the break I think, if it is a false break we can always take a small loss and close the trade. I would be perfectly happy to pay 10 - 20 pips for the chance to be in right at the start of a move.
There might also be another chance on GBPUSD if we get a retrace back up to the trendline - I have defaced your nice chart, hope you don't mind
Attachments
Hi Nigel,
I would just like to say i like your system, it makes a lot of sense. Yes you will have more losers than winners but as you say that one winner will far outway the losers. How long have you been trading this system?
Many thanks,
Julian.
I would just like to say i like your system, it makes a lot of sense. Yes you will have more losers than winners but as you say that one winner will far outway the losers. How long have you been trading this system?
Many thanks,
Julian.
Hi Julian, welcome to the thread!
I would steer away from calling it a system per se, simply because the word system implies that it is a rigid set of rules to follow. Unfortunately traders come to the market with a completely wrong frame of mind when they hear the word system. System implies rules, step by step, a painting by numbers sort of approach. We naturally gravitate towards a system because we take comfort in ideas of certainty, boxes to tick. We run away from discretion, decision, accountability and responsibility.
When you think about it, we should already know that this type of systematic approach to trading the markets is doomed to fail. If it was possible for it to succeed, we should be able to say "after this happens, that will happen 55% of the time" - i.e. reduce the market down to a formula. The fact is, the market is completely unpredictable, dynamic, volatile, temperamental. Simply put, it will always humiliate any set of rules you put in front of it.
Does that mean we just open orders willy-nilly with no rules to govern our trading? Of course not. We can still have rules, but they aren't there to dictate when we open and close trades, there are there to help us manage our risk. That is the key difference.
I have used candlesticks and trendlines for years. I think that they are a great way of analysing the market. But within that analysis, how I trade the PAST strategy could still be completely different to you. There is still a huge amount of room within the PAST guidelines to make the strategy work for you, to customise it to suit your own trading personality.
I like to shoot for huge winners - so I might go weeks without a winning trade. That might sound completely anathema to some of you reading this, but it works for me. That doesn't mean you have to try to do what doesn't come naturally to you. Some of you here might not be able to trade like that so you will want to take profits more often and regularly. That's fine. You may have to compensate for that by being better skilled at entries though, whereas a loser to me means very little. It's all swings and roundabouts, as they say.
So, if we look at the signals we are looking at this week - take GBP/CAD for instance. If we are to take all of us trading it and put together all of our results at the end of this week and analyse them, I can guarantee you this - they will range right across the spectrum from people who are being crazy aggressive to those being super-conservative. Some will be closing with small profits, some will be holding out for big profits. Some will have small losers, some will have big losers. Some will end the week with a gain and some will end the week with a loss.
But one thing I am convinced of - if everyone trading is doing so with a clear understanding of what their purpose is - managing risk responsibly and taking advantage when the opportunity comes - then over the long term everyone will be see the reward that their effort warrants.
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