Price Action Swing Trading - The PAST Strategy
- Thread starter Nigel Price
- Start date
- Watchers 91
Stopped out of EURNOK at BE.
Treading water on USDCAD, have no ben able to move to BE yet.
Stuart
Treading water on USDCAD, have no ben able to move to BE yet.
Stuart
Stopped out of USDCAD for a loss on the back of CAD news yesterday.
I will go over the weekly charts on Sunday and post anything that I see.
Stuart
I will go over the weekly charts on Sunday and post anything that I see.
Stuart
Hi guys
This week I am looking at the NZDUSD following a weekly engulf as the anchor signal. HEre are the charts.
Weekly:
H4:
I have entered short this morning on a retest of the broken trendline.
Thanks
Stuart
This week I am looking at the NZDUSD following a weekly engulf as the anchor signal. HEre are the charts.
Weekly:
H4:
I have entered short this morning on a retest of the broken trendline.
Thanks
Stuart
Evening Gentlemen and Gentleladies! 
Hope everyone is keeping well! Some sterling work on the charts there guys, some beautiful chartwork
I will be going back through the thread to see if there are any questions etc since I was last here, but in the meantime I just wanted to say hello!
See you tomorrow morning!
All the best, Nigel
Hope everyone is keeping well! Some sterling work on the charts there guys, some beautiful chartwork
I will be going back through the thread to see if there are any questions etc since I was last here, but in the meantime I just wanted to say hello!
See you tomorrow morning!
All the best, Nigel
Evening Gentlemen and Gentleladies!
Hope everyone is keeping well! Some sterling work on the charts there guys, some beautiful chartwork
I will be going back through the thread to see if there are any questions etc since I was last here, but in the meantime I just wanted to say hello!
See you tomorrow morning!
All the best, Nigel
Hi Nigel
Good to have you back. Looking forward to some more of you wisdom.
Stuart
Nigel, great to hear from you. I always look forward to your insight.
I am curious about your EURNOK trade, and especially your thought process. There have been some large breaks to the downside followed by major retracements. Are you still in this trade, and if so, are you leaving your stop at BE or do you have a take profit in mind? If the trade is closed, where and why did you exit?
Thanks,
Abercrombie
I am curious about your EURNOK trade, and especially your thought process. There have been some large breaks to the downside followed by major retracements. Are you still in this trade, and if so, are you leaving your stop at BE or do you have a take profit in mind? If the trade is closed, where and why did you exit?
Thanks,
Abercrombie
Evening folks
After highlighting the NZDUSD last week I unfortunately missed the break I was looking for and so missed the big move last week. Damn work and other life commitments, haha.
On the note of work and commitments, I am finding it increasingly difficult to watch the charts regularly throughout the day due to work and so I am going to have to change to trading the breaks of the H4 chart. This is not ideal but the way I see it, the big wins will still completely outweigh the larger stop loss I am going to need to use by trading off H4.
Whilst I missed NZDUSD last week, I am not giving up on it yet, the weekly chart shows another nice bearish candle and price is sitting on a daily and H4 trendline. Price has had a big drop and so ideally I would like to see a small bounce on the trendline followed by a decisive break to join the shorts.:
Weekly:
H4:
Happy trading - would be interested to hear if anyone is trading anything lse right now.
Stuart
After highlighting the NZDUSD last week I unfortunately missed the break I was looking for and so missed the big move last week. Damn work and other life commitments, haha.
On the note of work and commitments, I am finding it increasingly difficult to watch the charts regularly throughout the day due to work and so I am going to have to change to trading the breaks of the H4 chart. This is not ideal but the way I see it, the big wins will still completely outweigh the larger stop loss I am going to need to use by trading off H4.
Whilst I missed NZDUSD last week, I am not giving up on it yet, the weekly chart shows another nice bearish candle and price is sitting on a daily and H4 trendline. Price has had a big drop and so ideally I would like to see a small bounce on the trendline followed by a decisive break to join the shorts.:
Weekly:
H4:
Happy trading - would be interested to hear if anyone is trading anything lse right now.
Stuart
I will be watching GBPUSD this week for a short entry. There was a preceding uptrend. Last week's bearish bar closed below the open of the last bullish bar, in addition to the LWC on the prior week's bearish bar. This created a three bar engulfing pattern. I'm not sure how strong of a signal this is, but I will give it a go since I'm still learning this strategy.
The weekly:
The trendline I'll be watching on the hourly:
I also missed the trendline break in the NZDUSD and will be looking to enter short on a retest. Hopefully the market will provide Stuart and I with a nice entry opportunity. If not, wait for the next.
Good Trading All,
Abercrombie
The weekly:
The trendline I'll be watching on the hourly:
I also missed the trendline break in the NZDUSD and will be looking to enter short on a retest. Hopefully the market will provide Stuart and I with a nice entry opportunity. If not, wait for the next.
Good Trading All,
Abercrombie
Not a pair I'm very familiar with, but I'm still keeping an eye on EUR/NOK!
If anyone has been following my recent reports, it's no secret that I have been finding that decent trading opportunities have been thin on the ground.
I have a feeling that things will pick up somewhat as we move past the summer and into the Autumn though. Forever the optimist!
I haven't currently got any positions open on this pair Abercrombie, have had a couple of B/E trades closed out. Lost nothing, and that's always the first priority!
Despite the retraces, I still think this pair is still behaving quite nicely - the bulls, although stubborn, seem to be reluctant to really strutt their stuff. So if a drop materialises this coming week, I will try to get on board and make some money. If we stay range-bound or rally, I will be doing my best to keep my losses under control.
Here's my current 1 hour chart:
[/url]Click for large view - Uploaded with Skitch
If anyone has been following my recent reports, it's no secret that I have been finding that decent trading opportunities have been thin on the ground.
I have a feeling that things will pick up somewhat as we move past the summer and into the Autumn though. Forever the optimist!
I haven't currently got any positions open on this pair Abercrombie, have had a couple of B/E trades closed out. Lost nothing, and that's always the first priority!
Despite the retraces, I still think this pair is still behaving quite nicely - the bulls, although stubborn, seem to be reluctant to really strutt their stuff. So if a drop materialises this coming week, I will try to get on board and make some money. If we stay range-bound or rally, I will be doing my best to keep my losses under control.
Here's my current 1 hour chart:
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In total agreement with you guys on both the Kiwi and Cable.
The bears seem to have taken control of both markets with a bit of gusto!
Obviously it would be great to see price really get moving fast, but in these markets guys, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of consolidation first.
But certainly, both are "sell the rallies" now. Just a matter of picking a place that we can get into the market and participate with the least amount of risk, and the greatest amount of potential reward.
And if we miss the odd trade, no matter, the next one will be along soon. We will miss some cracking winning trades, yes, but we will also miss some of those awful days when nothing goes right and we get chopped to bits. It all evens out in the end.
Missing a winning trade will never put us put of business, trying to play a choppy market that isn't moving quite often will!
Thanks to everyone who has been posting in here while I was away, keeping the thread alive! I was expecting to see the tumbleweeds in here! Great to see. If your account is alive at all in 2014 you are doing extremely well. As I am sure you will have read, it's pretty much been carnage in the professional fx world this year. Most of us in here are probably well ahead of the competition! So let's keep plugging away...
The bears seem to have taken control of both markets with a bit of gusto!
Obviously it would be great to see price really get moving fast, but in these markets guys, I wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of consolidation first.
But certainly, both are "sell the rallies" now. Just a matter of picking a place that we can get into the market and participate with the least amount of risk, and the greatest amount of potential reward.
And if we miss the odd trade, no matter, the next one will be along soon. We will miss some cracking winning trades, yes, but we will also miss some of those awful days when nothing goes right and we get chopped to bits. It all evens out in the end.
Missing a winning trade will never put us put of business, trying to play a choppy market that isn't moving quite often will!
Thanks to everyone who has been posting in here while I was away, keeping the thread alive! I was expecting to see the tumbleweeds in here! Great to see. If your account is alive at all in 2014 you are doing extremely well. As I am sure you will have read, it's pretty much been carnage in the professional fx world this year. Most of us in here are probably well ahead of the competition! So let's keep plugging away...
Morning Anu! I'll be sure to check my diary and give you advance notice of my next scheduled disappearance!
Haha!I'll be here for the next while anyway, so if you have any questions just ask and I'll do my best to answer.
Bear in mind, there's no guarantee I will have the answers to your questions!
Trading is a mix of probabilities, uncertainties, surprises, shades of grey, personal styles, personal preferences. More often than not there is no hard, black or white answers to trading questions.
That's what makes trading different, more challenging and more interesting and exciting than almost anything else. It's because there are often no correct answers, that's what makes it interesting and intriguing.
Some people always want procedure, rules and step by step. Those people can only ever go so far in life.
Other people thrive on problem solving, risks, strategy and innovation. They are the ones that push the boundaries and make progress.
It's the same for trading. Don't reject the uncertainty and always try to seek out the formula. Be prepared to embrace uncertainty and the opportunity it offers.
Where there is risk, there is reward. Where there is no risk, there is no reward.
In a trading environment, no-one has all the answers, least of all me. I'm learning all the time too, and will continue to do so for as long as I do this job. The day you think you have it all sorted and get cocky, is the day the market will come and bite you in the ass.
Hi Nigel sir!
1> In past few days i taken some trades as per PAST strategy, some gone profits but i noticed after reaching +40 pips profit trade returning back and either hitting SL / Break even.
so i thought myself (still not applied it) better whenever any trade reach +40 pip profit close it and again check for another entry. is it ok ? if not then how long i can keep open my trade ? and when should i move my SL to breakeven ?
2> what will the best breakeven point in any trade ( i mean how much pip that trade should reach in profit when i can move my SL to BE , and exactly how can i define this BE point so i should not lose also + safe my position also to further running)
2> whether SL target should vary on volatility of various currency pairs differently ?
Anu
1> In past few days i taken some trades as per PAST strategy, some gone profits but i noticed after reaching +40 pips profit trade returning back and either hitting SL / Break even.
so i thought myself (still not applied it) better whenever any trade reach +40 pip profit close it and again check for another entry. is it ok ? if not then how long i can keep open my trade ? and when should i move my SL to breakeven ?
2> what will the best breakeven point in any trade ( i mean how much pip that trade should reach in profit when i can move my SL to BE , and exactly how can i define this BE point so i should not lose also + safe my position also to further running)
2> whether SL target should vary on volatility of various currency pairs differently ?
Anu
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Going to do a spot of intra-day trading here - 15 min chart
Will watch for a move down through either or both trendlines. Above 8.39-ish would probably have me standing aside
[/url]Click for large view - Uploaded with Skitch[/IMG]
Will watch for a move down through either or both trendlines. Above 8.39-ish would probably have me standing aside
This is the question we all struggle with Anu, and you're absolutely right, it's a tough one.
How I tackle it is like this - right, so I had a 40 pip floating profit, and price retraced and hit my breakeven stop. That is annoying, and it hurts to see profit just disappear like that. But we should think of it from the risk perspective - what have we lost? Remember, our job as traders is to control our risk as tightly as possible, and put ourselves in the position to profit if the market moves our way.
Yes, you will have loads of trades that will get stopped out a breakeven or a small loss. But, sooner or later one of those trades will not go for 40 or 50 pips profit, it will go for 400 pips profit, or more. A thousands pips is not as uncommon as you think. It does happen.
The tempting thing to do is yes, close out at 40 points profit. That seems pretty ok for your day's work and there is nothing wrong with that. But you have to get up tomorrow morning and do the same, AND you have to be able to pick those good entry points consistently, time after time. That is hugely difficult. That's when people get caught up in the two steps forward, one step back type of trading results, and trust me, they are really tough going.
Most traders who take profits fairly quickly end up with results like this:
A= +40, 0, -20, 0, -20, -10, +40, +40, -40, -40, -20, 0, -20, -40, +20, +40 = -30 pips Total
Traders who control their losses tightly, take a number of attempts and end up with lots of breakeven trades and then eventually get a winner typically have results like this:
B= 0, -20, 0, 0, 0, -20, -20, 0, +200 = +140 pips Total
Trader A often feels like he is doing pretty well, because he is closing more winners, but he works very hard and rarely gets much reward.
Trader B takes way fewer trades, and then when he gets a large winner (and they always eventually come, believe me) he just sits back and lets it ride. Instead of sitting at the computer looking for the next trade, he is just checking in every now and again for a couple of minutes, to check its progress.
Plus, because he is trading less, transaction costs are lower (I talk about the impact of this in the Ebook)
And, because he is trading less, he can spend more time watching sport, playing with his kids, eating chocolate (generally more productive things than trading
) and less time in front of the screen. It's not impossible to be a success as Trader A, I'm not saying that, I'm just saying that it is more difficult. If you can change your mindset slightly, and trade more like Trader B, you are far more likely to see results. That's just my opinion, granted, but I have yet to come across anyone that can convince me otherwise
Again, this is something that will vary from trader to trader, there are no hard and fast rules. If you really forced me to give you an answer, I would suggest a guide of maybe bringing your stop to breakeven once your trade is in profit the same amount as your initial stop, but that's only a guide. So if you had a 20 pip stop, maybe bring your stop to B/E once it gets 20 pips in profit. Once you practice a bit you will eventually find what's comfortable for you.
Remember there is never anything stopping you from getting back into a trade again after it has been stopped out at B/E. What's better - getting a trade stopped out at B/E and then getting in again (net P/L = 0) or letting a trade go into loss and then hoping that it comes back at some point into profit? Hope is not a trading strategy - get your stop to B/E as soon as you can, and if it gets stopped out, no matter. You have lost nothing and you can always get in again. Stay in control whenever you can
Absolutely - some currency pairs move more than others - right now USDJPY doesn't seem to be moving at all
Think less in terms of pips and more in terms of stop placement - so get your stop above or below an area that if price breaks it, you will have to admit that you were wrong, and the market is not behaving as you expected or wanted it to. Being wrong in the market is not a negative - I am wrong far more often that I am right - it's how I behave when I am wrong and how I behave when I am right - that's the difference.
Hope that helps, and forgive the long-winded reply
Hi Nigel Sir!
You explained very nicely, i got it.
Can you pls. explain how can i know SL placements for various currency pairs since each having different volatility ?
or
whether its enough to put SL as you explained in your e-book (just above trend line or just above trend line + last high)
Anu
You explained very nicely, i got it.
Can you pls. explain how can i know SL placements for various currency pairs since each having different volatility ?
or
whether its enough to put SL as you explained in your e-book (just above trend line or just above trend line + last high)
Anu
Jon is doing a short google hangout in a few mins if anyone fancies popping in to say hello
I plan to start something similar for PAST over the coming weeks
I plan to start something similar for PAST over the coming weeks
Hi Nigel sir!
> when your video course will be available ?
> i started 100$ fx trading account with Dukascopy, i use to open 1 / 2 position at a time till it close with size 1000 unit, is it ok or i should not / can not do fx trading with this small amount ?
Anu
> when your video course will be available ?
> i started 100$ fx trading account with Dukascopy, i use to open 1 / 2 position at a time till it close with size 1000 unit, is it ok or i should not / can not do fx trading with this small amount ?
Anu
The video course is being reviewed by the Academy Awards panel Anu - I'm expecting an Oscar for it
Only messing - hopefully it will be ready in a few weeks - these things always take longer than you think! If you are subscribed to Forex Useful you'll get an email.
I always find it difficult to comment on other people's leverage and position sizes etc, because I can only tell how I feel when managing a particular position size. I can never tell someone else how they will react to having a certain amount of their capital tied up in a particular trade. All I can tell you is that if you cannot be comfortable trading with the size you have, or if a few losers in a row will either wipe you out or cause you to start trading emotionally, your position size is too big.
But everyone varies - if I specified a position size, it could be too large for some people and they would risk blowing up, or it be too small for others and they could be sacrificing potential returns. So it's really something for each individual trader to figure out for themselves what they are most comfortable with and what gives them the best chance at success in the long term.
Remember, rule number one is survival, so if in doubt, revise your position size lower. Oanda does flexible lot sizes, so you can literally trade for pennies if you want to - if the minimum at other brokers is a bit big relative to the amount you can afford to deposit, open an Oanda account and trade small until you find your groove. Start small and work your way up to bigger positions.
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