EUR/GBP 2024 Forecast: Analysis and Expert Predictions
Dear Clients and Partners,
In-depth analysis of the EUR/GBP currency pair
The EUR/GBP pair is the cross rate of the two popular currency pairs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. A cross rate is the price of one country’s currency expressed in another country’s currency and determined through their values against a third currency – the US dollar, traditionally considered the primary international reserve currency.
The EUR/GBP exchange rate reflects the dynamics of the value of the common European currency (EUR) against the British pound sterling (GBP). In this pair, the euro is the base currency, and the current price reflects how many pounds are needed to buy or sell one euro. When the pair’s quotes go up, it indicates a strengthening euro, and when they drop, it signifies a weakening euro against the UK currency.
Trading characteristics of the EUR/GBP pair
The role of the Bank of England’s monetary policy
The primary tool the UK central bank uses to regulate inflation and influence the exchange rate of the national currency is the implementation of changes in the key interest rate. If the interest rate increases, the pound sterling exchange rate strengthens against other currencies, while a decrease in the interest rate leads to a decline in the exchange rate. Since December 2021, the Bank of England has executed a series of interest rate hikes to curb high inflation.
The rate increased from 0.1% to 5.25% during this period. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee aims to achieve a 2% inflation target. Thanks to interest rate increases, inflation rates are slowing down in the second half of 2023, with the regulator pausing its interest rate hikes since August. While consumer inflation fell from 10.5% in January to 4.6% in November, it is still above the central bank’s target.
Further actions on interest rate changes in 2024 will depend on economic data, primarily on inflation rates. If the UK’s GDP declines and recession signs emerge, this may negatively impact the pound exchange rate, with the EUR/GBP pair receiving support for growth. Conversely, strong GDP growth and high inflation might prompt the regulator to raise the interest rate again, bolstering the pound sterling against the euro.
EU monetary policy and its effects on EUR/GBP
The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strongly impacts the EUR/GBP pair. For example, interest rate hikes in the eurozone contribute to strengthening the euro exchange rate against the pound. The regulator has been implementing a series of tightening measures in its monetary policy since July 2022 to curb rapidly rising inflation. During this period, the interest rate increased from 0% to 4.5%, with the latest (at the time of writing) hike of 0.25% in September 2023.
Consumer inflation in the eurozone is exhibiting signs of a slowdown in 2023: while the rate reached 10.1% in January, growth in November was just 2.4%. The ECB focuses on attaining a 2% inflation target. The regulator is currently pausing its interest rate hike series in response to slowing European inflation rates.
Technical analysis and predictions for EUR/GBP in 2024
After rebounding from the annual low of 0.8500 in July-August 2023, the EUR/GBP currency pair is experiencing upward momentum within an ascending local price channel on the daily chart. At the time of writing, the pair underwent a downward correction towards the channel’s lower boundary, forming a local support level at 0.8550.
If this support level does not break, the pair will likely continue its upward movement to the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.8800. Should the quotes fall below 0.8550, the ascending scenario will probably be cancelled, with the price potentially declining to the annual low of 0.8500 and further to 0.8350. The SMA (200) and Alligator indicators suggest a local downward impulse of the price movement.
Read more at R Blog - RoboForex
Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team
Dear Clients and Partners,
In-depth analysis of the EUR/GBP currency pair
The EUR/GBP pair is the cross rate of the two popular currency pairs, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. A cross rate is the price of one country’s currency expressed in another country’s currency and determined through their values against a third currency – the US dollar, traditionally considered the primary international reserve currency.
The EUR/GBP exchange rate reflects the dynamics of the value of the common European currency (EUR) against the British pound sterling (GBP). In this pair, the euro is the base currency, and the current price reflects how many pounds are needed to buy or sell one euro. When the pair’s quotes go up, it indicates a strengthening euro, and when they drop, it signifies a weakening euro against the UK currency.
Trading characteristics of the EUR/GBP pair
- The pair is traded round the clock from Monday to Friday inclusive, with the highest activity observed during the European and American trading sessions
- The EUR/GBP pair shows a low average daily volatility of approximately 500 pips
- Thanks to its popularity, high liquidity, and moderate volatility, the spread for this pair is minimal, ranging from 3 to 5 pips in a quiet market
The role of the Bank of England’s monetary policy
The primary tool the UK central bank uses to regulate inflation and influence the exchange rate of the national currency is the implementation of changes in the key interest rate. If the interest rate increases, the pound sterling exchange rate strengthens against other currencies, while a decrease in the interest rate leads to a decline in the exchange rate. Since December 2021, the Bank of England has executed a series of interest rate hikes to curb high inflation.
The rate increased from 0.1% to 5.25% during this period. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee aims to achieve a 2% inflation target. Thanks to interest rate increases, inflation rates are slowing down in the second half of 2023, with the regulator pausing its interest rate hikes since August. While consumer inflation fell from 10.5% in January to 4.6% in November, it is still above the central bank’s target.
Further actions on interest rate changes in 2024 will depend on economic data, primarily on inflation rates. If the UK’s GDP declines and recession signs emerge, this may negatively impact the pound exchange rate, with the EUR/GBP pair receiving support for growth. Conversely, strong GDP growth and high inflation might prompt the regulator to raise the interest rate again, bolstering the pound sterling against the euro.
EU monetary policy and its effects on EUR/GBP
The European Central Bank’s monetary policy strongly impacts the EUR/GBP pair. For example, interest rate hikes in the eurozone contribute to strengthening the euro exchange rate against the pound. The regulator has been implementing a series of tightening measures in its monetary policy since July 2022 to curb rapidly rising inflation. During this period, the interest rate increased from 0% to 4.5%, with the latest (at the time of writing) hike of 0.25% in September 2023.
Consumer inflation in the eurozone is exhibiting signs of a slowdown in 2023: while the rate reached 10.1% in January, growth in November was just 2.4%. The ECB focuses on attaining a 2% inflation target. The regulator is currently pausing its interest rate hike series in response to slowing European inflation rates.
Technical analysis and predictions for EUR/GBP in 2024
After rebounding from the annual low of 0.8500 in July-August 2023, the EUR/GBP currency pair is experiencing upward momentum within an ascending local price channel on the daily chart. At the time of writing, the pair underwent a downward correction towards the channel’s lower boundary, forming a local support level at 0.8550.
If this support level does not break, the pair will likely continue its upward movement to the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 0.8800. Should the quotes fall below 0.8550, the ascending scenario will probably be cancelled, with the price potentially declining to the annual low of 0.8500 and further to 0.8350. The SMA (200) and Alligator indicators suggest a local downward impulse of the price movement.
Read more at R Blog - RoboForex
Sincerely,
The RoboForex Team