When analyzing volume, there are usually guidelines used to determine the strength or weakness of a move. As traders, we are more inclined to join strong moves and take no part in moves that show weakness—or we may even watch for an entry in the opposite direction of a weak move.
These guidelines do not hold true in all situations, but they offer general guidance for trading decisions.
1. Trend Confirmation
A rising market should see rising volume. Buyers require increasing numbers and increasing enthusiasm to keep pushing prices higher. Increasing price and decreasing volume might suggest a lack of interest, and this is a warning of a potential reversal. This can be hard to wrap your mind around, but the simple fact is that a price drop (or rise) on little volume is not a strong signal. A price drop (or rise) on large volume is a stronger signal that something in the stock has fundamentally changed.
2. Exhaustion Moves and Volume
In a rising or falling market, we can see exhaustion moves. These are generally sharp moves in price combined with a sharp increase in volume, which signals the potential end of a trend. Participants who waited and are afraid of missing more of the move pile in at market tops, exhausting the number of buyers.
At a market bottom, falling prices eventually force out large numbers of traders, resulting in volatility and increased volume. We will see a decrease in volume after the spike in these situations, but how volume continues to play out over the next days, weeks, and months can be analyzed by using the other volume guidelines.
3. Bullish Signs
Volume can be useful in identifying bullish signs. For example, imagine volume increases on a price decline and then the price moves higher, followed by a move back lower. If, on the move back lower, the price doesn’t fall below the previous low, and if the volume is diminished on the second decline, then this is usually interpreted as a bullish sign.
4. Volume and Price Reversals
After a long price move higher or lower, if the price begins to range with little price movement and heavy volume, then this might indicate that a reversal is underway, and prices will change direction.3
5. Volume and Breakouts vs. False Breakouts
On the initial breakout from a range or other chart pattern, a rise in volume indicates strength in the move. Little change in volume or declining volume on a breakout indicates a lack of interest and a higher probability for a false breakout.
6. Volume History
Volume should be looked at relative to recent history. Comparing volume today to volume 50 years ago might provide irrelevant data. The more recent the data sets, the more relevant they are likely to be.
