Technical analysis on EU,GU and majors

bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Daily analysis of GBP/USD for October 30, 2014

On the daily chart, GBP/USD had a sharp drop from the resistance level of 1.6146 to the 1.6005 level, where the pair is trying to consolidate its current bearish trend, and now this pair could fall to the support level of 1.5883 in the medium term. That level is very strong, as this pair made a rebound at this level a few weeks ago. For now there is no clear view in the short term for the GBP/USD and the MACD indicator is entering neutral territory.
GBPUSDH1.png

H1 chart's resistance levels: 1.6031 / 1.6075
H1 chart's support levels: 1.5980 / 1.5925
Trading recommendations for today:
Based on the H1 chart, place sell (short) orders only if the GBP/USD pair breaks a bearish candlestick; the support level is at 1.5980, take profit is at 1.5925, and stop loss is at 1.6035.

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bhanu545

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 30, 2014

USDJPYM30.png

Fundamental overview: USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with bullish bias after hitting three-week high 108.97 on Wednesday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.98 versus 85.41 early Wednesday) after the Federal Reserve confirmed the end of its monthly bond-buying program and delivered a slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement as it offered a relatively optimistic assessment of the outlook for the U.S. labor market and economy. USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.321% versus 2.284% late Tuesday), demand from Japan's importers and ultra-loose Bank of Japan's monetary policy. But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's exporter sales, selling of yen crosses amid diminished risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 5.28% to 15.15, S&P 500 closed 0.14% lower at 1,982.3 overnight) as the Fed's latest policy statement renewed concerns over higher interest rates.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 109.30 and the second target at 109.55. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 107.90. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 107.55. The pivot point is at 108.35.
Resistance levels: 109.30 109.55 109.90
Support levels: 107.90 107.55 107.35

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bhanu545

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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 30, 2014

USDCHFM30.png

Fundamental overview:
USD/CHF is expected to trade in higher range.It is underpinned by the positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 85.98 versus 85.41 early Wednesday) after the Federal Reserve confirmed the end of its monthly bond-buying program and delivered a slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement as it offered a relatively optimistic assessment of the outlook for the U.S. labor market and economy, franc sales on soft CHF/JPY cross and dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy.
Technical comments:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish but stochastics is reverted to bullish mode, bullish outside-day-range pattern was completed on Wednesday.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9590 and the second target at 0.9620. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9495. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9465. The pivot point is at 0.9525.
Resistance levels: 0.9590 0.9620 0.9655
Support levels: 0.9495 0.9465 0.9435

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bhanu545

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Gold Technical analysis for October 30, 2014

Gold price has broken short-term support at $1,221 and price is moving towards our short-term target of $1,200 already. My longer-term view remains bearish targeting $1,050. Important resistance for a trend change is the $1,240.
gold.jpg

The weekly chart remains fully bearish as price has now moved away of the critical resistance at $1,237 that was needed to be broken on a weekly basis in order for Gold price to bounce higher towards $!,265 or even $1,300. The bearish weekly formation combined with the rejection at the Ichimoku cloud, continues to support my longer-term bearish view that eventually we will break $1,180.

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bhanu545

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for October 31, 2014

eurusdh4.png

Trading recommendations: We expect that the trend of EUR/USD is going to call for a bearish market at the level of 0.2707 in H1 chart. Additionally, it should be noted that the range today will be about 95 pips. Thereupon, sell at the price of 1.2707-1.2646 with the first target of 1.2550, it might resume to 1.2481in order to test the weekly support. At the same time, the stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Accordingly, your stop loss should be placed above the 1.2728 level.
Review:
The price hit the weekly support 1 resistance 1 and pivot point this week. The major support is going to set at 1.2481 on October 31, 2014. The level of 1.2707 is representing the weekly pivot point, it will act as strong resistance today. Hence, according to the previous events, the price of the EUR/USD pair is going to move between 1.2510 and 1.2647. So, we expect a range between 113 pips and 184 pips this week. Therefore, it will be very useful to sell below the price of 1.2707 in the long term with the first target at 1.2546 in order to test the double bottom. But if the trend is able to break the double bottom at 1.2546, then it might resume to the level of 1.2481. Notes: If the trend is upward, then the strength of the currency will be defined as follows: EUR is in an uptrend and USD is in a downtrend. The double bottom will set at the level of 1.2500 and this level is going to represent the ratio of 00% Fibonacci retracement level in H1 chart. The minor support is going to set at 1.2546. The major support had already set at the price of 1.2481. Moreover, the double bottom also coincides with the major support.

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for October 31, 2014

gbpusdh1.png

Trading recommendations:
According to the previous events, the price of the GBP/USD pair has still moved between the prices 1.5990 and 1.5947. The level of 1.5994 represents the weekly pivot point. It should be noted that the weekly pivot point coincides with the ratio of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels. Hence, the new resistance has set at the level of 1.5994; for that sell below 1.5994 in the long term with the first target of 1.5947 in order to test the double bottom; it might resume to 1.5910 (near of support area) if the trend will be able to break the double bottom at 1.5947. The stop loss should never exceed your maximum exposure amounts. Thus, it will be rather profitable to set your stop loss at the level of 1.6053.
Intraday technical levels:
Date :31/10/2014
Pair:
GBP/USD R3: 1.6132 R2: 1.6084 R1: 1.6045 PP: 1.5997 S1: 1.5958 S2: 1.5910 S3: 1.5871

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Technical analysis of USD/CHF for October 31, 2014

USDCHFM30.png

Fundamental overview: USD/CHF is expected to consolidate after hitting three-week high 0.9613 on Thursday. CHF sentiment is boosted by the stronger-than-expected Switzerland October KOF economic barometer of 99.8 (versus forecast 98.2). USD/CHF is also weighed by the franc demand on buoyant CHF/JPY cross. But USD/CHF downside is limited by the positive USD sentiment, dovish Swiss National Bank's monetary policy and positions adjustment before the weekend.
Technical comments:
Daily chart is mixed as MACD is bearish but stochastics is in a bullish mode.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 0.9650 and the second target at 0.9680. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 0.9515. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 0.9480. The pivot point is at 0.9565.
Resistance levels: 0.9650 0.9680 0.9710 Support levels: 0.9515 0.9480 0.9450

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for October 31, 2014

USDJPYM30.png

Fundamental overview: USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting a three-week high 109.46 on Thursday. USD/JPY is underpinned by the report that Japan's $1.2 trillion Government Pension Investment Fund plans to lower its target allocation for domestic bonds from nearly 60% now to 35% (versus market expectations of reduction to 40%) over the medium to long term, positive dollar sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 86.15 versus 85.98 early Thursday) after slightly more-hawkish-than-expected policy statement from the Federal Reserve on Wednesday and stronger-than-expected 3.5% annual growth in U.S. 3Q GDP (versus forecast +3.1%), although details to the report were less rosy; 250 drop in four-week moving average for U.S. initial jobless claims to 281,000 in week ended Oct. 25, the lowest average reading since May 2000. USD/JPY is also supported by the demand from Japan's importers and yen-funded carry trades amid the positive investor risk appetite (VIX fear gauge eased 4.16% to 14.52) as U.S. stocks rose overnight (S&P 500 closed up 0.62% at 1,994.65). But USD/JPY gains are tempered by Japan's export sales, lower U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.308% versus 2.321% late Wednesday) after Germany's inflation data came in softer-than-expected and positions adjustment before the weekend.
Technical comment:
Daily chart positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although latter is at overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 112.55 and the second target at 113.40. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 109.45. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 108.70. The pivot point is at 110.
Resistance levels: 112.55 113.40 113.85
Support levels: 109.45 108.70 108.35

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Gold : analysis for October 31, 2014

GOLDH431.png

Overview: Since our last analysis, gold has been trading downwards. As we expected, the price tested the level of 1,161.06 in an ultra high volume (selling climax). Our swing low at the price of 1,183.00 is broken, so we we may expect testing the level of 1,147.00 (major Fibonacci expansion 161.8%). According to the daily time frame, we got supply in a high volume, which is a sign that the price may continue with downwad movement. A smaller bullish corrective phase is possible but watch for selling opportunities after retracement.
Daily pivot Fibonacci points:
Resistance levels: R1: 1,211.55 R2: 1,216.51 R3: 1,224.53
Support levels S1: 1,195.51 S2: 1,190.55 S3: 1,182.53
Trading recommendations: Buying gold at this stage looks risky since price has broke swing low

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for November 3, 2014

Overview: The GBP/USD pair has been moving downwards respecting the depicted downtrend line since July 15 when the ongoing downtrend was initiated. Many bearish impulses were previously initiated around 1.7180, 1.6630, and 1.6400 where the downtrend line came to meet the pair then. The price zone of 1.6060 - 1.6090 constituted a transient daily support that paused the bearish movement for a few days since September 9. However, bears quickly managed to push below reaching down to 1.5890 (depicted on the chart). Price level of 1.5890 provided a solid daily support level that provided evident bullish recovery. A bullish engulfing daily candlestick is manifested on the chart. Recently, bulls have pushed above the downtrend line. Bullish breakout off the downtrend line as well as an inverted bullish Head and Shoulders are already manifest on the chart. Bullish fixation above 1.6060 was essential to maintain the bullish scenario. However, the bears have failed to do so. Instead, the market is moving again towards the backside of the broken trend line once again. The 4H chart shows a Flag pattern after a strong bearish impulse initiated off 1.6150. This is a continuation pattern. However, price levels around 1.5940 remains a strong intraday support corresponding to multiple daily lows (Thursday and Friday). Trading recommendations: Price action should be watched near the previous daily lows around 1.5950. A valid buy entry can be taken if significant bullish rejection is expressed. Until now, the market is showing hesitance especially after the two -Doji- daily candlesticks of both Thursday and Friday. Bullish fixation above the price level of 1.6035 ( Thursday's highest level ) and 1.6075 confirms our suggested bullish position. The bullish target would be located around 1.6150 initially.
gbpdailysamy.jpg
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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 03, 2014

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Manufacturing PMI, Italian Manufacturing PMI, Final Manufacturing PMI. The US will release the economic data too such as the Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day. TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Breakout BUY Level: 1.2521. Strong Resistance:1.2514. Original Resistance: 1.2502. Inner Sell Area: 1.2490. Target Inner Area: 1.2461. Inner Buy Area: 1.2432. Original Support: 1.2420. Strong Support: 1.2408. Breakout SELL Level: 1.2401.
!EURUSD.jpg

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 03, 2014

In Asia, Japan will not release any economic statistics, but the US will release some economic data such as Final Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, Construction Spending m/m, ISM Manufacturing Prices, and Total Vehicle Sales. So, there is a big probability the USD/JPY will move with low volatility during the day. TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS: Resistance. 3: 113.29. Resistance. 2: 113.07. Resistance. 1: 112.85. Support. 1: 112.57. Support. 2: 112.35 Support. 3: 112.13.
!USDJPY.jpg

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Technical analysis of Silver for November 03, 2014

Silver droppeds to $15.75 levels in the early hours today before pulling back to $15.94/95 levels. The metal is producing a hammer on the daily chart view, which indicates a potential bottom. Yet, recommendations are to remain on sidelines and wait for a confirmation. Support is around $14.60 and lower, while resistance is seen at $17.80/$18.00, followed by $18.80 and higher respectively. Bears seem to be firmly in control till prices stay below $17.50 and subsequently $17.80. The larger time frame chart views indicate a potential bottom formation around $16.00 levels. It can be confirmed on a bullish reversal signal on the daily chart.
xauusd03112014.jpg

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bhanu545

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Technical analysis of Gold for November 03, 2014

Gold dropped to $1,160.00 levels taking out long positions yet again. A weekly chat view has been presented here for a larger trend view. A support trend line connecting the 2004/05 and 2008/09 lows is passing through the $1,150.00/$1,160.00 levels. The fibonacci 0.618 support of the rally between $680.00 and $1,900.00 is also passing through the $1,154.00 levels as depicted here. Furthermore, a past resistance turned support is also converging at the same levels. With all the above views, probabilities are high that the metal should bottom out between $1,150.00 and $1,160.00 levels. A bullish reversal signal should be watched for on the daily chart before confirming the same.
xagusd03112014.jpg

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bhanu545

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Technical analysis of EUR/USD for November 04, 2014

!EURUSD.jpg

When the European market opens, some economic news will be released such as Spanish Unemployment Change, EU Economic Forecasts, PPI m/m. The US will release the economic data too such as the Trade Balance, Factory Orders m/m, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Congressional Elections, so amid the reports, EUR/USD will move with low to medium volatility during this day.
TODAY TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.2559. Strong Resistance:1.2551.
Original Resistance: 1.2539.
Inner Sell Area: 1.2527.
Target Inner Area: 1.2497.
Inner Buy Area: 1.2467.
Original Support: 1.2455.
Strong Support: 1.2443.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.2435.

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Technical analysis of GBP/USD for November 4, 2014

gbpusdh1.png

Overview: The resistance of GBP/USD pair has already set at the level of 1.6039 (minor resistance which represents the weekly pivt point) and the support has set at 1.5903 (the weekly support 1). Therefore, according to the previous events, the price has still been moving between 1.5942 and 1.6039, then it should be noted that the range today will be around 97 pips. Consequently, the trend in the H1 time frame is calling for a bearish market at the level of 1.6039. Hence, below 1.6039 look for further downside move with targets at 1.5942, if it can break the double bottom today (1.5942). So, the price will continue towards 1.5900 today. On the other hand, buy above 1.5890 in the short term of the same day with the first target at 1.5933; it might resume to 1.6040 tomorrow in order to test the pivot point of this week.
Notes:
We expect a range of 97 pips.
Risk of 65 pips must make a profit of 97.
The value of 50% Fibonacci retracement levels is 1.6062.
Volatility: 231.92, thus the market indicates the higher volatility.

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bhanu545

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Technical analysis of USD/JPY for November 04, 2014

USDJPYM30.png

Fundamental overview:
USD/JPY is expected to consolidate with a bullish bias after hitting near-seven-year high 114.21 on Monday. It is underpinned by the positive USD sentiment (ICE spot dollar index last 87.29 versus 87.07 early Monday) after surprise rise in U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI to 59.0 in October--its highest level since March 2011--from 56.6 in September (versus forecast for drop to 56.0). USD/JPY is also supported by the higher U.S. Treasury yields (10-year at 2.346% versus 2.335% late Friday) as strong ISM data raised speculation of earlier Federal Reserve tightening than currently priced; demand from Japan importers, weak yen sentiment after Bank of Japan's unexpected announcement of fresh stimulus on Friday. But USD sentiment is dented by the surprise 0.4% drop in U.S. September construction spending (versus forecast +0.8%). USD/JPY gains are also tempered by Japan's export sales and diminished investors risk appetite (VIX fear gauge rose 4.99% to 14.73, S&P 500 closed 0.01% lower at 2,017.81 overnight). Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is in the overbought zone; five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.
Technical comment:
Daily chart is positive-biased as MACD and stochastics are bullish, although the latter is in the overbought zone, five-day moving average is above 15-day MA and is advancing.
Trading recommendations:
The pair is trading above its pivot point. It is likely to trade in a higher range as far as it remains above its pivot point. As long as the price is keeping above its pivot point, a long position is recommended with the first target at 114.70 and the second target at 115.70. In an alternative scenario, if the price moves below its pivot points, short positions are recommended with the first target at 110.50. A break of this target would push the pair further downwards and one may expect the second target at 109.40. The pivot point is at 112.85.
Resistance levels: 114.70 115.70 116
Support levels: 112.30 111.45 111

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bhanu545

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Gold Wave analysis for November 4, 2014

Gold price is moving sideways as part of wave 4 of the decline from $1,255. A new lower low is expected towards $1,135 for the short-term. My longer-term view remains bearish with $1,050 as a target but first we could see a bounce towards $1,180-$1,200.
goldh4.jpg

Gold price has not managed to come close even to the 23.8% retracement. Price remains below the Ichimoku cloud and all ichimoku indicators remain bearish. The trend remains strongly bearish with my longer-term target of $1,050 still unchanged. Breaking below $1,160 will give us another sell signal with $1,173 stop and $1,140-$1,130 target.

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Elliott wave analysis of EUR/JPY for November 4 - 2014

2014-11-04-EURJPY-8H.png

Today's support and resistance levels:
R3: 143.04 R2: 142.56 R1: 142.26
Current spot: 141.86
S1: 141.25 S2: 140.95 S3: 140.45
Technical summary:
There was no time for a correction to 140.40 and red wave iii moved directly higher towards 143.04 as the next upside target. If red wave iii ended a little early at 142.56, then we could see a new minor correction in red wave iv to 140.45 before the next powerful rally higher to 143.03 and higher to 144.64. Short-term support will be found at 141.25 and again at 140.45, which is expected to protect the downside for the next rally higher to 144.64
Trading Recommendation:
We will buy EUR at 140.50 or upon a break above 142.25 with a stop at 139.50.

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bhanu545

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Nov 3, 2010
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Intraday technical levels and trading recommendations on EUR/USD for November 5, 2014

eur4h.jpg

The market expressed quite strong bearish momentum that went further below the lower limit of the previous bullish channel.
As depicted on the chart, the EUR/USD pair has respected the limits of the current bearish channel.
As anticipated, Price levels around 1.2750 ( upper limit of the channel ) provided a valid SELL entry. Quick decline took place towards price level of 1.2500 ( the origin of the most recent bullish movement ).
Recommendation:
The SELL entry offered around 1.2730-1.2760 is running in profits now. Stop Loss can be lowered to 1.2590 and partial exit can be considered to secure some of the achieved profits.
Daily closure below 1.2480 can give another SELL signal for risky traders. Stop Loss to be set as daily closure again above the entry levels with target levels located at 1.2440, 1.2370 and 1.2290.

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