Technical analysis on EU,GU and majors

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD. Forecast for August 15, 2013

UK Claimant Count Rate was at the same level, 7.8%. Meanwhile, Claimant Count Change was -29.2K vs. forecast for -14.3K and data from June was revised downwardly from -21.2K to -29.4K. The bank of England Meeting Minutes showed that the members of the committee voted unanimously for the preservation of bond buying program without changes. The pound strengthened 52 points. Today data on UK Retail Sales in July is issued, forecast 0.7% vs. 0.2% in June. News from the US is expected to be positive. We do not consider that strong data will raise risk appetite, however, we expect upward movement. The first target is 1.5572, the second is 1.5600, confluence of the highs from May 1-6. Break of this strong level (upward rebound was observed on March 12 and other time it rebounded downwardly) is unlikely from the psychological point of view, as the major investment idea is the cut of QE3 in the US and debates on the reduction of the US budget. However, in case of weak data, if the rate consolidates under the testing level 1.5494, the decline to support of Kruzenshtern line (blue sliding) on the H4 is possible, to 1.5440 and then to 1.5390.

Performed by Yuriy Zaycev, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD. Forecast for August 16, 2013

Yesterday it was expected that US data was positive, however, it was not; the euro continued downward movement along with the stock market. It should be noted that the euro is sold while the data is both positive and negative. Empire State Manufacturing Index in August was 8.2 vs. expectation for 10.2. Capacity Utilization in July was 77.6% vs. forecast for 77.9% and revised downwardly up to 77.7% in June. Industrial Production was flat vs. forecast for a 0.5% growth. However, after the macroeconomic data was published, the investors began to buy gold due to turmoil in Egypt, where 525 people were killed. Gold price rose 2.5%. After it the euro rose 90 points. Today at 12:00 UTC+4 data on Current Account in the Eurozone in June is revealed, forecast 21.2 billion euro vs. 19.6 billion in May. At 13:00 UTC+4 Trade Balance in the Eurozone is published, forecast 15.3 billion euro vs. 14.6 billion euro. At 16:30 UTC+4 data on Building Permits in July is issued; it is expected to be 0.95 million vs. 0.92 million in June. Housing starts are estimated to be 0.91 million vs. 0.84 million in June. Thus, we expect the data on the Eurozone will probably be strong and we expect the currency will rise. However, the growth is expected to be limited, to the range 1.3374/84, where a consolidation and resume of the decline to the medium-term target 1.3085/95 are possible.

Performed by Yuriy Zaycev, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD: technical analysis for August 16, 2013

Overview: GBP/USD:
The resistance has been already set at the level of 1.5805 as well as the support has been set at 1.5590 for August 12 - 16, 2013. Therefore, according to the previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.5600 and 1.5570, then it should be noted that the range today will be around 90 - 120 pips. Consequently, the trend on the time frame H1 is called for a bullish market at the level of 1.5590. Hence, below 1.5590 look for further upside move with targets at 1.5650 and 1.57 today. On the other hand, sell below 1.5805 with a first target at 1.5715; it might resume to 1.5655 newt week in order to test the strong support of this week.
Intraday technical levels:
Date: 16/08/2013
Pair: GBP/USD
R3: 1.5812
R2: 1.5730
R1: 1.5680
PP: 1.5598
S1: 1.5548
S2: 1.5466
S3: 1.5416

Performed by Mourad El Keddani, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[Coleen]

GBPUSD

I recommend opening short position if the price breaks the level 1.56154 and the target of bearish movement will be 1.55771.

 

[Coleen]

AUDUSD
If the pair breaks the level 0.92098 I propose to buy till the target 0.92411.
If the pair breaks the level 0.91511 than expected bearish movement to the level 0.91080.

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 19, 2013

Consolidation above the previously broken downtrend depicted on the chart goes on for the third day in a row. This took place after finding solid supply around 1.3200. The weekly candlestick was a pin-bar representing hesitation after failing to step above the previous weekly high 1.3400 The EUR/USD pair stalled on Friday, forming a shooting star just below key 1.3400 resistance without actual testing of the level. The market is currently trading between supply around 1.3400 and demand down around 1.3200. We could potentially see a rebound from Friday’s high, back down toward support. However, depending on the huge bullish momentum witnessed on Thursday, the picture is a little neutral at this time and we could also see the market consolidating or slowly push higher. In general, as long as the market is contained below 1.3400 on a daily basis, there is potential for a reverse down towards demand around 1.3200. Fundamentally, the euro rose against the U.S. dollar on today's trades after the German central bank said the European Central Bank’s obligation to keep borrowing costs low does not exclude higher interest rates to restrain inflation.

Performed by Michael Becker, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 19, 2013

Last week, strong bullish pressure was applied at retesting 50% Fibonacci resulting in bullish engulfing candlestick extending further above 1.5400 (61.8% Fibonacci). This opened the way directly to 78% Fibonacci around 1.5550 which constituted temporary Intraday resistance that held price below for 5 days before bullish breakout took place on Thursday. The cable established ascending bottoms around 1.5100, 1.5210 and recently 1.5420 supporting the ongoing bullish bias for the pair. Key Supply Zone is located up near 1.5750 and would be a clear target area for anyone buying this market this week. Key demand levels are located around 1.5555 and 1.5420 respectively. We can watch for price action around support to get back in-line with the uptrend.

Performed by Michael Becker, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

UR/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 20, 2013

Consolidation above the previously broken downtrend depicted on the chart goes on for the 4th day in a row. This took place after finding solid supply around 1.3200. The weekly candlestick was a pin-bar representing hesitation after failing to step above the previous weekly high 1.3400 The EUR/USD pair stalled on Friday, forming a shooting star just below key 1.3400 resistance without actual testing of the level but today the market has already bypassed 1.3400 reaching 1.3450, the first supply level to meet the pair. We could potentially see a rebound from today’s high, back down toward support around 1.3400 then 1.3320. However, depending on the huge bullish momentum witnessed today, the pair may be able to achieve a daily closure above 1.3400. In general, as long as the market is contained above 1.3400 on a daily basis, there is potential for shooting higher.

The 4H chart shows a potential for a bullish move towards the upper limit of the depicted channel. This would be around 1.3470 which would be visited if the bulls manage to fixate above 1.3435 on 4H basis. Any bearish reversal has a target to deal with first to be able to shoot lower. This key level is located around 1.3400. Any 4H closure below 1.3400 will probably bring bearish momentum towards 1.3330 initially.

Performed by Michael Becker, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD. Forecast for August 20, 2013

On Monday, the pound grew 25 points vs. the strength of the US dollar. However, the sustainable development of the pound may be until the first ‘signal’ of the common market trend to strengthen the US dollar. On the daily chart yesterday the price has reached the level of Fibonacci 138.2% reaction. From the technical point of view divergence on Marlin oscillator on the H4 tells about future reverse. However, in order the signal strengthens, the indicator line has to move the negative territory; it may happen if the price crosses 1.5606. In this case the first target is the high of August 8, 1.5572, the second target is 1.5545, and the third is 1.5495, considerable support of May 1-6, June 7-10, and August 15. From the fundamental point of view it looks like the pound is stronger than the euro and we expect the decline at least until 1.5495 with the rebound from local levels.

Performed by Yuriy Zaycev, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

Wave analysis on EUR/USD for August 21, 2013

Wave analysis: During yesterday’s trading session the EUR/USD pair preferred to resume upward movement and at the end of the day consolidated at the level corresponding to June’s high (1.3415). Thus, yesterday’s growth confirmed the fact that the pair is forming inner wave stricture of the 5th wave higher than the uptrend channel, starting from the high of July 9. If it is so, such a growth of the quotes may get further development towards the level of figure 36 with intermediate target near the level 1.3500.
Targets for new down wave:
1.3353 – 11.4% of Fibonacci
1.3304 – 23.6% of Fibonacci
Targets for up wave (probably 5):
1.3440 – 1.3475
Summary and trading recommendations:
The pair continues building uptrend which has transformed into 5-wave structure. Now the formation of wave 5 with targets placed in the range 1.3440–1.3475 continues. After wave 5 is completed, the pair may start building of new down trend channel with targets placed near 1.3353 and 1.3304, which is corresponding to 11.4% and 23.6% of Fibonacci. Upward channel supports perspectives of upward trend. MACD divergence warns about the readiness of the pair to build new, probably correctional trend channel.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD. Forecast for August 21, 2013

Yesterday the pound added 20 points. The nature of the growth was that from the technical point of view, leading indicator Marlin continued dropping and continues forming technical conditions for signal for accelerated drop (transition to the negative territory). Today at 12:30 UTC+4 data on Public Sector net Borrowing in July, forecast -3.7 billion pounds vs. 10.2 billion pounds in June. The index of factory orders (CBI) in July is issued at 14:00 UTC+4. It is expected to be -8 vs. -12 in the previous month. If data is not worse than expected, the break of the level 1.5682 is possible and the price may reach the boarder of the pink channel on the H4, 1.5717, here reverse movement on Minutes of FOMC Meeting is possible (at 22:00 UTC+4). Target levels for bearish movement pointed on the 4H chart; 1.5606, 1.5572, and 1.5545.

Performed by Yuriy Zaycev, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 22, 2013

Consolidation above the previously broken downtrend depicted on the chart goes on for the 6th day in a row.
This took place after finding solid supply around 1.3200. The previous weekly candlestick was a pin-bar representing hesitation after failing to step above the previous weekly high 1.3400.
The EUR/USD pair stalled on Friday, forming a shooting star just below key 1.3400 resistance without actual testing of the level but on Tuesday, the market has already bypassed 1.3400 reaching 1.3450, the first supply level to meet the pair.
As expected, a rebound from Tuesday’s high took place yesterday, back down toward support around 1.3400 then 1.3300 where the backside of the broken downtrend line is located, probably providing demand for the pair.
In general, as long as the market is contained above 1.3330 on a daily basis, there is potential for another bullish movement towards 1.3450. However, breakdown of 1.3330 leads directly towards 1.3250-1.3200.
Fundamentally, preliminary results issued by the economic institution Markit showed breadth of activity of private business sector in the euro zone to the highest levels during two years, backed by the strong performance in Germany. This may constitute a bullish pressure at the current technical demand zones.

Performed by Michael Becker, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

GBP/USD: technical analysis for August 22, 2013

Overview: GBP/USD: The resistance has been already set at the level of 1.5653 as well as the support has been set at 1.5478 for August 19 - 23, 2013. Therefore, according to the previous events, the price has still been trapped between 1.5580 and 1.5525, then it should be noted that the range today will be around 105 pips. Consequently, the trend on the time frame H1 is called for a bullish market at the level of 1.5480. Hence, above 1.5480 look for further upside move with targets at 1.5567, if could break the weekly pivot point, so the price it will continue towards 1.5650 today. On the other hand, sell below 1.5635 with a first target at 1.5565; it might resume to 1.5478 tomorrow in order to test the strong support of this week.

Intraday technical levels:
Date & Time: 22/08/2013 14:30
Pair: GBP/USD
Projected High:1.5845
Breakout (Buy Stop):1.5790
Strong Resistance (Sell Limit):1.5760
Current Pivot:1.5610
Strong Support (Buy Limit):1.5460
Breakout (Sell Stop):1.5435
Projected Low:1.5385

Performed by Mourad El Keddani, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD intraday technical levels for August 23, 2013

TODAY's TECHNICAL LEVELS:
Breakout BUY Level: 1.3406.
Strong Resistance: 1.3398.
Original Resistance: 1.3385.
Inner Sell Area: 1.3372.
Target Inner Area: 1.3341.
Inner Buy Area: 1.3310.
Original Support: 1.3297.
Strong Support: 1.3284.
Breakout SELL Level: 1.3276.
DESCRIPTION:
Today, EUR/USD has support and resistance at 1.3297 and 1.3385. The rate is accompanied by strong support at 1.3284 and by 1.3398 as strong resistance. If EUR/USD breaks out and closes below the 1.3276 level today, then it will indicate considerable bearish strength. Meanwhile, if EUR/USD manages to break out and closes above the 1.3406 level, then it will denote high bullish strength. Alternatively, for advance traders, you can trade in a way to open a BUY position at the level of 1.3310 and at 1.3372, a SELL position. In this case both targets should be located at the level of 1.3341.

Performed by Arief Makmur, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

Daily trading forecasts for August 23, 2013

GBPUSD: The Cable has experienced a prolonged pullback, after it reached a weekly high of 1.5700. The RSI period 14 gives a ‘sell’ signal but the EMAs are yet to follow suit. It is therefore better to wait for further confirmation before one takes a position. It is more likely that the price would trend upwards.

Performed by Azeez Mustapha, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD. Forecast for August 26, 2013

The major Friday’s event US New Home Sales in July disappointed considerably and many investors thought to leave the QE3 program unchanged after September. Sales totaled 394K vs. forecast for 487K and data from June was revised downwardly from 497K to 455K. Consequently, US 10-year yields dropped to 2.81% and the dollar followed it; the euro vs. US dollar has added 25 points. Today the major event is US Durable Goods Orders ex Transportation in July (16:30 UTC+4), forecast 0.5% vs. 0.0% in June. US Durable Goods Orders are expected to drop 3.6% vs. a 4.2% growth in June. Taking into account the fact that the Fed regards only Core Durable Goods Orders, the investors may consider strong data as a sign of the beginning of QE3 cut from September. In other words, it is the right time for traders; the price may freely move both up and down. If the Friday’s high is broken, the price may test the resistance of trend line on 1.3442. The second target is 1.3458. If the lower testing level 1.3360 is broken, which corresponding to the break of balance price line (red sliding) on the H4, the first target is 1.3312, significant level of August 7, 13, 16. Consolidation under the level (correspondingly under indicator line of Kruzenshtern on the H4) will make the prerequisites for further decline to the support of red channel on 1.3180.

Performed by Yuriy Zaycev, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

GBPUSD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 26, 2013

Strong bullish sentiment was expected to be found at the support zone around 1.4830 which pushed the pair to the upside reaching 50% Fibonacci level around 1.5275, 1.5400 corresponding to 61.8% Fibonacci level then 78% Fibonacci around 1.5533. Some bearish rebound took place off 1.5400 towards 1.5100 where an ascending bottom was established on August 1. Now there are prominent established ascending bottoms around 1.5100, 1.5200, and 1.5420. Moreover, there is a bullish breakout above 1.5575, which cleared the way towards 1.5680-1.5700 corresponding to a previous high established on 6th of June. A valid BUY entry was suggested at retesting of 78% Fibonacci around 1.5530 with SL located below 1.5490. However, traders should be cautious about the obvious bearish weekly candlestick. We need to see obvious closure of 4H above 1.5575 to remain bullish towards 1.5630 then 1.5750 in the short-term prospect. 4H breakdown of 1.5540 probably brings back bearish pressure towards 1.5430 initially. It's important to note that the market expressed a SHOOTING STAR weekly candlestick, which roughly tested 1.5585. This will probably provide further bearish momentum for the pair unless the recent low around 1.5540 remains solid.

Performed by Mohamed Samy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 27, 2013

This took place after finding solid supply around 1.3200. The previous weekly candlestick had a small bullish body representing failure of the bulls to close above the high of the precceeding weekly candlestick at 1.3380 which is being tested again today. On August 20, the EUR/USD pair managed to have a daily closure above 1.3400 when the market expressed bearish engulfing daily candlestick on the next day failing to fixate above it. As it is expected, a rebound from Tuesday’s high (August 20) took place on the next day, back down toward support around 1.3400 then 1.3300, where the backside of the broken downtrend line is located, providing demand for the pair. In general, as long as the market is contained above 1.3330 on a daily basis which was achieved on Thursday by daily closure at 1.3354, there is a potential for another bullish movement towards 1.3450. Fundamentally, the market may witness quiet volatile trading day as investors remain cautious amid continuous concerns about the future of monetary easing program of the Fed.

Performed by Michael Becker, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

Wave analysis of GBP/USD for August 27, 2013

Yesterday there were no considerable changes in the GBP/USD wave structure, the pair was trading in the narrow price staying under the level of figure 56. Thus, current situation accepts the possibility of further decline of downward correction towards the lower line of ascending channel passing at the moment near the level of 1,5400. Meanwhile, until the price breaks the low of wave 4 in 5 (1.5420), the possibility that wave 5 in 5 will be more complex in form will be actual. The British pound probably has completed the building of up wave, which is identified as wave 5 of upward trend channel. If the assumption is correct, then the decline of quotes started in terms of new downward trend channel with targets placed near 1.5529 and 1.5392, which is corresponding to 76.4% and 61.8% of Fibonacci. If wave 5 gets more complex, then the increase continues with the targets placed near figures 57 and 58. Upward channel supports the outlook of continuation of uptrend channel, the break of its lower forming line gives us the reason to consider the building of a more complex downward trend channel, probably and impulse one.

Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013

 

[bhanu545]

EUR/USD intraday technical levels and trading recommendations for August 28, 2013

This took place after finding solid supply around 1.3200. The previous weekly candlestick had a small bullish body representing failure of the bulls to close above the high of the precceeding weekly candlestick at 1.3380, which applied bearish pressure again on the pair yesterday, despite the bullish closure of the precceeding daily candlestick. On August 20, the EUR/USD pair managed to have a daily closure above 1.3400, when the market expressed bearish engulfing daily candlestick on the next day failing to fixate above it. As it is expected, a rebound from Tuesday’s high (August 20) took place on the next day, back down towards support around 1.3400 and 1.3300, where the backside of the broken downtrend line is located, providing demand for the pair. In general, as long as the market is contained above 1.3330 on a daily basis, there is a potential for another bullish movement towards 1.3450. Fundamentally, as it is expected, the market is witnessing quiet volatile trading day as investors remain cautious amid continuous concerns about the future of monetary easing program of the Fed.

Performed by Michael Becker, Analytical expert
InstaForex Group © 2007-2013