Technical Analysis Today

[Zerologic]

NZD/USD surges amid poor US dollar performance

The NZDUSD currency pair increased for three consecutive days. Yesterday, the price formed a long bullish candle crossing the middle band line from the downside. Price formed a high of 0.57318, a low of 0.56374, and a closing of 0.57245. The USD/CAD started to rise on March 3 after the price was at the lower band. This increase was in line with the poor performance of the US dollar.

The dollar index (DXY) has experienced three consecutive days of decline from a high of 107.654 to a low of 104.259. The weakening performance of the US dollar may be caused by Trump's tariff policy, which brings concerns about trade wars and economic uncertainty. After reiterating the proposed tariff for Canada and Mexico of 25%, and also the tariff on China, which was increased to 20%.

China has announced retaliatory tariffs against the US. Meanwhile, New Zealand could be impacted by this trade war given its significant dependence on exports to China.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data released yesterday also showed that the actual data was much lower than expectations. ADP Employment data was only 77k, far below the forecast of 141k and the previous revision of 186k. This seems to be another reason for the US dollar's poor performance. However, the ISM Services PMI data was higher than forecast at 53.5, above the forecast of 52.5 and the previous revision of 52.8. Although mixed economic data still does not help the value of the dollar index to rise.

Today, RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks delivered the opening speech at a research conference hosted by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. Investors will be looking for subtle hints of possible hawkishness or dovishness that could influence the currency.

Apart from that, we will also pay attention to US Unemployment Claims data, which is expected to fall by 234k from the previous revision of 242k.

 

[Zerologic]

Silver Price Rises, Cautious Seeing High Price

Silver is one of the precious metals that is an alternative hedge besides gold. Yesterday, the Silver price with the symbol XAGUSD drew a bearish candle with a long wick at the bottom of the candle. The price formed a high of 32,761 low of 32,253 closing at 32,626. The Silver price has tended to rise since March which had dropped to a low of 30,814.

The US Dollar's downward trend strengthened on Wednesday, driven by concerns about the US economy as President Donald Trump's tariff policy sparked concerns about economic uncertainty. The dollar index (DXY) dropped to 103,761 yesterday, extending its previous three-day decline, although now the DXY value is slightly up at 104,180 at the time of writing.

The United States ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data released on Wednesday showed a figure of 77k smaller than the forecast of 141k from the previous revision of 186k. Traders sometimes use this information to project the possibility of NFP, which will be released today. Meanwhile, Unemployment Claims released on Thursday showed a figure of 221k, smaller than the forecast of 234k from the previous revision of 242k. Although the unemployment claims data was lower than expected, it did not help much to strengthen the dollar index.

Silver demand in Shanghai, according to SMM, is bullish influenced by a discount factor on silver contract which partly for hedging position, while downstream buyers are cautious in buying at high level and remain on the sidelines.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) delivered a widely expected interest rate cut, with President Christine Lagarde stressing the need for higher caution in uncertain economic conditions.

Today, investors will focus on US data to be released, Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings to get a picture of the recent US economy.

 

[Zerologic]

Gold volatility decreased, marked by a shrinking Bollinger band.

Gold prices last week moved steadily in the range of the $2900 price level. Buyers were reluctant to increase volume, and sellers were still holding their positions. Gold price volatility has slightly decreased with a range of low at 2894 to high 2930, the shrinking Bollinger band indicates lower volatility in gold. Gold prices at the close of Friday formed a high of 2930 and a low of 2896, closing at 2908 near the middle band line.

Although gold has entered a consolidation phase, inflation data from the US and political news can continue to affect gold prices in the short term. US President Donald Trump canceled the signing of a mineral deal with Ukraine, interpreting two possibilities to open the way for a Russian ceasefire; investors will continue to monitor global geopolitical changes.

In the US, there are increasing concerns about the US economy, which are weighing on the USD. The dollar index (DXY,) which tracks the USD against six major currencies, shows a weakening trend in the USD; DXY is now at 103.759, which started its decline since January 2025 from a high of 110.176. Trump's tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico of 25% and an additional import tariff on China of 10% are the reasons for the increasing selling of the USD. Although the impact is more visible on other major currencies than gold.

The US Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in February fell to 50.3 from 50.9 in January, reflecting a loss of growth momentum in manufacturing business activity. Meanwhile, the Employment Index fell to 47.6 from 50.3, indicating a contraction in the sector's payrolls. Meanwhile, the NFP data released on Friday showed 151k smaller than the forecast of 159k but still higher than the previous 125k.

Meanwhile, the Fed, according to the CME group's Fedwatch tool at its meeting on March 19, predicted the Fed would maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% by 97%, and the possibility of a cut to 4.00%-4.25% was only 3.0%.

Looking at today's economic calendar schedule, there is no high-impact news to be released, but traders will still see market changes in real time.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/JPY falls further ahead of Japan's GDP and US jobs data.

The US Dollar and Japanese Yen currency pair remains in bearish sentiment. Yesterday, the price drew a bearish candle with a lower low extending the previous decline. The price formed a high of 147.954, a low of 146.632, and closed at 147.256.

The Japanese Yen still maintains its positive bias against the US dollar amidst market bets that the BoJ will raise interest rates. This was supported in data that showed that real cash income fell 1.8% due to persistently low inflation. Adding to this, growing confidence that the strong wage increases seen last year will continue this year supports the argument for further BoJ policy tightening.

Meanwhile, in the US, fears may persist over the potential economic impact of US President Donald Trump's trade policies and the global trade war resulting from Trump's policies, further strengthening the JPY's status as a relatively safe-haven currency. As is known, Trump's proposal for imports from Canada and Mexico to be subject to a 25% tariff while China gets an additional 10% tariff from the previous 10% to 20% can affect the economic policies of the affected countries. Canada has reportedly removed US products from their store shelves as an act of retaliation for the policy.

The dollar index (DXY), although slightly up but still under pressure. DXY is now at 103.903, having previously dropped to a low of 103.458 on Friday. RSI points to level 27 on the daily timeframe, indicating oversold value.

Today, the market will wait for the Japan GDP data report year after year and per quarter, which is estimated to be the same as the previous revision, and the US JOLTS Job Openings employment data report, which is estimated to increase to 7.65M from the previous 7.60M, according to Forexfactory data.

 

[Zerologic]

USD/CAD draws indecision candle ahead of overnight rate

The USD/CAD currency pair yesterday drew a Doji candle with long shadows on the top and bottom lines near the upper band line on the daily timeframe. The price formed a high of 1.45212, a low of 143792 open 1.44341, and closed at 1.44326. This temporarily halted the previous two-day bullish trend.

The US jobs data released yesterday, JOLTS Job Openings by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.74M higher than forecast 7.65M from the previously revised 7.51M. Hires held steady at 5.4M, and total layoffs were little changed at 5.3M. Although job openings were slightly changed but decreased by 728K over the year.

The increase in these data figures somewhat supported the strengthening of the USD. The trade war initiated by United States President Donald Trump against Canada is the reason for the turbulence in the USD currency, including the USDCAD pair lately. Trump imposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico on March 4. He also imposed additional duties on goods from China. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has threatened to take action in response to Trump's policies. Trudeau said retaliatory tariffs on C$30 billion worth of U.S. imports would go into effect immediately, with more to follow.

The trade war continues. Trump announced an increase in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Canada to 50 percent in response to the Ontario government imposing a 25 percent tariff on electricity exported to the US.

Today, investors will focus on the Bank of Canada, which is scheduled to announce its latest interest rate decision, which is expected to be cut by 25 basis points from 3.0% to 2.75%. In addition, investors will also pay attention to the BoC statement,t which may provide subtle clues on Canadian dollar currency policy.

In the US, today will also release CPI data which is an important inflation data used by the Fed to determine their monetary policy. Core CPI is expected to fall 0.3% from the previous 0.4%, monthly CPI is also expected to be 0.3% from the previous 0.5% and annual CPI is expected to be 2.9% from the previous 0.3%.