Technical Outlook, Strategies & Commentaries On The Major Currencies

[FXTechstrategy Team]

GBPUSD: Takes Out The 1.6516 Level, Risk Builds On The 1.6603 Level

GBPUSD: With GBP remaining bullish in the medium term and breaking above the 1.6516 level, its Jan 10 2014 high, the risk is for it to recapture the 1.6603 level, its Jan 02’2014 high. Further out, a breach of this level will open the door for additional strength towards the 1.6650 level with a turn above here triggering its medium term uptrend resumption towards the 1.6700 level followed by the 1.6750 level and possibly higher towards the 1.6800 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the other hand, on any pullback, support stands at the 1.6516 level and then the 1.6400 level where a break will turn focus to the 1.6350 level and subsequently the 1.6300 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.6259 level. On the whole, GBP continues to retain its medium term upside bias.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCAD: On Bullish Offensive, Aims At The 1.1200 Level.

USDCAD: The pair is now seen following through higher on the back of its Wednesday rally during Thursday trading session. This development has created scope for more strength towards the 1.1200 level where a breach if seen will trigger further gain towards the 1.1250 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.1300 level where a violation will aim at the 1.1350 level and then the 1.1400 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the other hand, support comes at the 1.0900 level, its psycho level o any pullback followed by the 1.0842 level where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 1.0736 level, representing its Dec 20 2013 high. Additionally, downside objective resides at the 1.0651 level, its Jan 06’2014 low. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further upside threats in the long term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Reverses Losses, Set To Extend Gains

EURUSD: With EUR reversing its previous week losses to return above its broken trendline, further recovery gains are likely in the new week. If this happens, the pair could force further strength towards the 1.3818 level, its Dec 30 2013 high where a violation will expose the 1.3750 level, its psycho level where a break will target the 1.3898 level, its Dec 2013 high. Above here will trigger its medium uptrend resumption towards the 1.3950 level and then the 1.4000 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Conversely, on any pullback, support comes in at the 1.3620 level, its rising trendline support. Further down, support stands at the 1.3550 level and then the 1.3500 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on further bull threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

AUDUSD: Despite its attempts at recovering higher, it continues to hold on to its broader medium term downside bias. With that said, we expect its current recovery attempts to fade at the 0.8755 level or maximum at the 0.8822 level if it does continue. Support lies at the 0.8659 level followed by the 0.8600 level where a breach will aim at the 0.8550 level. Further down, support is located at the 0.8500 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further weakness. On the upside, resistance resides at the 0.8755 level initially with a cut through there targeting the 0.8822/47 levels where a reversal of roles is likely to occur. But if this fails, expect more recovery to occur towards the 0.8915 level, its Jan 16’2014 high and next the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Hesitates Above Its Key Support

EURUSD: Although EUR may be struggling above its rising trendline, its broader upside bias remains intact in the medium term. However, it will have to retake the 1.3739 level, its Jan 24 2014 high to trigger further upside pressure towards the 1.3818 level, its Dec 30 2013 high. A turn above the 1.3818 level will set the stage for a move higher towards the 1.3897 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. Further out, the 1.3950 level comes in as the next upside. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, any pullback will meet support standing at the 1.3628 level, its Jan 28’2014 low. That level is expected to provide support when tested. However, if this level is violated, further decline could follow towards the 1.3550 level and the 1.3489 level where a violation will aim at the 1.3400 level, its psycho level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside medium term.

 

[ajpipsmaker]

I somehow agree with you to a good extent.
I also see the EURUSD trading higher if key levels are taken out.
You are right, initially the 1.3810/20 level holds the key to the upside.
Above this level, the pair might target the previous high.
A lot depend on the upcoming FOMC rate decision.
I think we need to be prepared for a surprise, as this is the last of Ben's call.
A $5B or may be $10B will do.
I will be around to know the outcome of the event.
However, I might not the event.
Cheers!

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURJPY: Bearish, Faces Further Downside Pressure.

EURJPY- The cross remains weak and vulnerable as long as it holds below the 142.41 level. With a follow through lower on the back of its Wednesday losses seen, further weakness is expected in the days ahead towards the 138.48 level, its .50 Fib Ret (its 131.21-145.68 rally). Further down, support comes in at the 138.00 level, its psycho level where a violation will aim at the 137.50 level. A cut through that level will open the door for a run at the 137.00 level and then the 136.76 level, its .618 Fib Ret. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, resistance resides at the 141.27 level, its Jan 29 2014 low followed by the 142.41 level, its Jan 23 2014 low. A violation if seen will target the 142.90 level, its Jan 16’2014 high and then the 143.50 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside on correction.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

The Week Ahead - USDCHF

USDCHF: With the pair reversing most of its previous week losses to close higher the past week, immediate risk remains to the upside. Resistance resides at the 0.9156 level, its Jan 21 2014 high. Further out, the 0.9200 level, its psycho level comes in as the next upside objective where a violation will aim at the 0.9249 level, its Nov 07’2013 high. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 0.8902 level, its Jan 24 2014 low. A cut through here will turn focus to the 0.8850 level and subsequently lower towards the 0.8800 level, its psycho level. This downside view is consistent with its broader medium term downtrend triggered from the 0.9838 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term though seen recovering.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Risk Points To The Downside, Set To Test The 1.3400 Level

EURUSD: With EUR reversing its previous week gains and returning below its rising trendline, further decline is envisaged in the days ahead. Support comes in at the 1.3400 level, representing its psycho level where a breach will aim at its weekly 200 ema at the 1.3346 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3300 level where a break will aim at the 1.3250 level and possibly lower towards the 1.3200 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the other hand, resistance resides at the 1.3550 level but EUR will have to break and hold above the 1.3716 level to annul its bear threats and trigger its upside offensive now on hold. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3800 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside on further bear threats.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDCHF: Closes The Week Lower, Eyes Further Weakness.

USDCHF: With USDCHF closing the week lower and reversing most of its past week gains, the risk as we enter the new week is for more decline to occur. As long as USDCHF trades and holds below the 0.9156/0.9079 levels this view remains valid. Support lies at the 0.8902 level, its Jan 24 2014 low where a violation will push the pair further lower towards the 0.8850 level. A cut through here will pave the way for a run at the 0.8800 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, to resume its short term uptrend now on hold, it will have to overcome its resistance residing at the 0.9050/81 levels followed by the 0.9100 level and then the 0.9156 level, its Jan 21 2014 high. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level, its psycho. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Weekly Technical Strategist On EURUSD

EURUSD: Recovery Risk Targets The 1.3739 Level.

EURUSD: EUR took back most of its previous week gains to close higher the past week. This development now leaves the pair aiming at the 1.3739 level where a breach will target further upside towards the 1.3800 level, its psycho level.This view is consistent with its long term uptrend which is on hold due to corrective price action. Conversely to annul its past week gains it will have to return to the 1.3476 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3400 level, representing its psycho level where a breach will aim at its weekly 200 ema at the 1.3346 level. Additionally, support stands at the 1.3300 level where a break will target the 1.3250 level and possibly lower towards the 1.3200 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the downside below its broken trendline.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

The Week Ahead On USDCHF

USDCHF: Follows Through Lower, Set To Extend Weakness.

USDCHF: With a follow-through on the back of its previous week losses occurring at the end of the week, further downside is expected. As long as USDCHF trades and holds below the 0.9156/0.9079 levels this view remains valid. Minimum support lies at the 0.8902 level, its Jan 24 2014 low where a violation will push the pair further lower towards the 0.8850 level. A cut through here will pave the way for a run at the 0.8800 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, to reduce its downside pressure, the pair will have to overcome its resistance residing at the 0.9033 level, its Feb 12 2014 high followed by the 0.9100 level and next the 0.9156 level, its Jan 21 2014 high. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level, its psycho. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

EURUSD: Bullish, Risk Targets The 1.3736 Level And Beyond.

EURUSD: EUR looks to extend its bullish offensive with eyes on the 1.3739 level. A cut through here will aim at further upside towards the 1.3800 level, its psycho level. Further out, resistance is seen at the 1.3850 level and then the 1.3900 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely to annul its past week gains it will have to return to the 1.3561 level where a break will turn focus to the 1.3476 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.3400 level, representing its psycho level where a breach will aim at its weekly 200 ema at the 1.3346 level. Additionally, support stands at the 1.3300 level and then the 1.3250 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on further recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Daily Technical Strategist On USDCAD

USDCAD: Vulnerable, Retains Bearish Tone

USDCAD: With the pair maintaining its downside pressure, further decline is likely. This leaves the pair targeting further downside towards the 1.0900 level, its psycho level where a violation will aim at the 1.0842 level, its previous week low. A follow-through lower if seen will open the door for a run at the 1.0736 level, its Dec 20 2013 high. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur here and turn the pair higher from this level. However, if this fails to happen expect more weakness towards the 1.0650 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, resistance comes in at the 1.1000 level where a violation will set the stage for a run at the 1.1089 level. A breach will pave the way for a push towards the 1.1172 level, its big psycho level. It may face bear threats at this level but if broken, further upside could occur towards the 1.1200 level. All in all, USDCAD continues to face further bearishness on correction.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Special Focus On GBPUSD

GBPJPY: Vulnerable But Retains Its Broader Long Term Uptrend Bias

GBPJPY – The cross remains biased to the upside in the medium and long terms but now faces corrective downside. In order for it to resume its uptrend, it will have to break above the 171.15/87 levels. A breach could force further upside towards the 172.50 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 173.64 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, support comes in at the 169.11 level where a break will aim at the 168.00 level and then the 167.19 level. Further down, support resides at the 166.14 level, its Feb 07 2014 low with a break targeting further downside towards the 166.00 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the upside in the long term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Daily Technical Strategist On EURGBP

EURGBP- Unless EURGBP resumes its corrective recovery triggered off the 0.8157 level, the risk is for it to return to the 0.8190 level. Below here if seen will open the door for a return to the 0.8157 level, its Feb 17 2014 low. Further down, support is seen at the 0.8100 level with a turn below here will aim at the 0.8050 level and possibly lower towards the 0.8000 level. Immediate resistance comes in at the 0.8265 level where a break if it occurs will target the 0.8300 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 0.8349 level. Followed by the 0.8385 level, its Jan 15 2014 high where a violation will trigger further upside towards the 0.8400 level, its psycho level and next the 0.8450 level, its psycho level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside on further weakness.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

The Week Ahead: USDCHF

USDCHF: Weakens, Extends Bearishness.

USDCHF: With a third-week of decline as occurring the past week, further weakness is likely towards the 0.8798 level, its Dec 27 2013 low. Further down, support lies at the 0.8750 level with a cut through here paving the way for a run at the 0.8700 level, its big psycho level. Below here if seen will set the stage for more weakness towards the 0.8650 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, to resume its short term uptrend now on hold, it will have to overcome its resistance residing at the 0.9037 level. This if seen could force further upside towards 0.9081 levels followed by the 0.9156 level, its Jan 21 2014 high. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9200 level, its psycho. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside medium term.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Weekly Technical Strategist On EURUSD

EURUSD: Bullish, Eyes Further Upside Pressure.

EURUSD: With EUR maintaining its bullish bias, further gain is envisaged in the new week. Resistance resides at the 1.3800 level where a violation will turn attention to the 1.3850 level and then the 1.3900 level, its psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Conversely, to annul its past week gains it will have to return above the 1.3685 level. Further down, support is seen at the 1.3600 level and then the 1.3561 level where a break will turn focus to the 1.3476 level. A cut through will pave the way for a run at the 1.3400 level, representing its psycho level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside on further recovery.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

Daily Technical Strategist On EURUSD

EURUSD: Hesitates But Eyes The 1.3772 Level.

EURUSD: Though maintaining its broader upside, it requires a break and hold above the 1.3772 level to trigger that trend. Above here will turn attention to the 1.3800 level, its psycho level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.3893 level, its Dec 27 2013 high. A turn above here will pave the way for a run at the 1.3950 level and next the 1.4000 level. This view is consistent with its long term uptrend. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support comes in at the 1.3739 level where a break will turn focus to the 1.3673 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.3600 level and then the 1.3561 level, its Feb 12 2014 level. All in all, EUR remains biased to the upside below its broken trendline.

 

[FXTechstrategy Team]

USDJPY: Pressure Builds On The 102.82 Level

USDJPY: With USDJPY reversing its Tuesday losses, further upside is expected towards the 102.82 level. A cut through here will open the door for more gain towards the 103.43 level, its Jan 29 2014 high. Above here will set the stage for a run at the 104.oo level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 104.50 level and then the 105.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, support stands at 102.00 level where a violation will expose the 101.43 level, its Feb 07 2014 low. Further down, support stands at the 100.00 level with a cut through here paving the way for a run at the 99.50 level. A loss of that level will turn attention to the 99.00 level, its big psycho level. On the whole, USDJPY remains exposed to the upside for more strength