Weekly FX forecast from NordFX

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 20-24 July 2015

The accuracy of last week’s forecast was significantly influenced by statistical reports and speeches by high-ranking officials, with the following outcomes:
- the support level for EUR/USD was set at 1.1000, and the pair tried to break through it for the first half of the week. It eventually happened on seemingly less important news from the USA, and by Friday the pair reached last May’s low;
- GBP/USD was expected to fall to around 1.5350, then rise and possibly break through the resistance level of 1.5555. The pair did fall, although not as much as predicted – to 1.5450. After that, following the speech by the head of the Bank of England, GBP/USD soared, broke through 1.5555 and turned this level into support;
- the forecast for USD/JPY can be considered 100% accurate. As put forward, the pair went down to the support level of 122.00 for a short while and then moved into the earlier mentioned zone with the Pivot Point at 123.50;
- there were two alternative scenarios for USD/CHF’s direction, and the start of the week was supposed to show which of them would play out. That was the case – it was clear already on Monday that the pair would follow the indications of graphical analysis and go up, making 0.9380 its initial support level.

Forecast for the coming week. Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- the EUR/USD pair appears to be in a unique situation – 100% of the experts predict its rise and 100% of the indicators predict its fall. However, both suggest only minor fluctuations, which seems to be due to the lack of any major news in the upcoming week. Support is likely to be at 1.0750-1.0800 while resistance – at 1.1110. Graphical analysis confirms this, showing a sideways trend with some advantage for the bulls;
- GBP/USD is also expected to be in a sideways trend with the Pivot Point at 1.5615, support around 1.5550 and resistance at 1.5760. All of the experts and an ascending corridor, clearly visible on Н4, suggest that the pair should reach this level within the first half of the week. According to graphical analysis on H1, there may be a short-term drop to the support level before the pair rises;
- last week USD/JPY reached its 2007 high. Both experts and indicators are of the opinion that, with support at 123.75, the pair will continue to move upwards to 126.00 for some time. The next support level will be at 123.00;
- the USD/CHF pair is widely believed to continue to rise to 0.9600 and further to 0.9700. This week the main support will be around 0.9520.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 27-31 July 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- the EUR/USD pair was predicted to be in a sideways trend with bulls prevailing and to move from support at 1.0750-1.0800 to resistance at 1.1110, which actually happened. Despite the pair being just short of the top boundary of the designated corridor, the forecast stood overall;
- the GBP/USD pair somewhat disappointed the analysts. The forecast was a sideways trend with support at 1.5555, which the pair tried to break during the first half of the week. On Thursday, it finally managed to do that and, as a result, fell to its 2-weeks old support around 1.5470;
- as predicted, USD/JPY tried to continue its rise at the beginning of the week but, with the bullish influence weakened, the pair entered a sideways trend, moving in a very narrow corridor and relying on support at 123.75;
- the lack of news last week affected the USD/CHF pair – it was unable to reach the desired height of 0.9700 and on Thursday fell to the expected level of support around of 0.9520, rebounded off it and returned to the rates of the start of the week.

Forecast for the coming week.
Summing up the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- a look at the H4 chart for EUR/USD would make it clear that the technical indicators will vote for the pair’s further rise. However, on D1 the picture is different – only 52% of the indicators echo this, while 48% hold the opposite view. Furthermore, 85% of the experts also vote for the pair’s fall, with the target as a drop to at least of 1.0850 or even further to 1.0800. Graphical analysis predicts a sideways trend in the range of 1.0900-1.1015 in the first half of the week and a rise to 1.1115 in case the resistance level gets broken through;
- according to 80% of the analysts, GBP/USD is likely to fall further and transition to 1.5335-1.5450, with 75% of the indicators supporting human reasoning. However, graphical analysis shows that the pair will fall only to 1.5400, after which it will continue to move up in an ascending corridor visible on D1;
- the analysts believe that USD/JPY won’t abandon its attempts to go up to at least 125.00. Both technical and graphical analysis readings agree with this general trend. Support will be around 123.65, with the next level at 122.50;
- as for the USD/CHF pair, 65% of the analysts expect it to rise to 0.9700. The indicators also confirm that the pair will try to finish what it failed to do last week. Graphical analysis on D1 paints this picture – first, a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by a rise to the target height of 0.9700, and then… a crash to a 0.9325 support level. The H1 and H4 timeframes spell such a crash much sooner.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 3-7 August 2015

First, a review of the past week:
- the forecast for EUR/USD based on graphical analysis turned out to be nearly perfect – a sideways trend in the range of 1.0900-1.1015 and a rise to 1.1115 if the pair broke through resistance. Last week’s chart displays all of that – the sideways trend, the break through resistance and the pair’s rise to 1.1115, with a support level of 1.0900;
- graphical analysis was also correct in regards to GBP/USD. It indicated that the pair would move in an ascending corridor visible on D1. This is precisely what happened – all week long the pair climbed up slowly, sticking to the bottom boundary of the corridor;
- the analysts and technical analysis were unanimous about USD/JPY – the pair was supposed to continue its effort to reach 125.00. It did try but failed to get over strong resistance at 124.50 once again;
- graphical analysis was close to perfection in its predictions for USD/CHF as well. The D1 scenario included a fall to support at 0.9520, followed by a rise to the target level of 0.9700 and a further crash to support at 0.9325. It all happened, though the crash was less dramatic – to 0.9550.

Forecast for the coming week.*Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world leading banks and broker companies, as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be put forward:
- it’s rather difficult to sum up the analysts’ views on EUR/USD but giving it a shot, it can be said that the pair’s Pivot Point will be at 1.0970. The pair will be oscillating around this line in a 1.0820-1.1115 range. The indicators also show neutral behavior for the pair while there’s no clarity with graphical analysis. Hopefully, the start of the week will shed more light on this;
- all of the analysts predict that GBP/USD will be in a sideways trend with prevailing bullish tendencies and support at 1.5520. A rise is foretold by 74% of the indicators, which is confirmed by graphical analysis. According to it, there may be a slight fall initially, after which the pair will be pushing off support at 1.5510, go up to 1.5830 and return to the support level. However, the return may happen 10-14 August instead of this week;
- as for USD/JPY, only 11% of the experts believe that the pair will finally reach 125.00, with the rest talking about a drop to around 123.00. Graphical analysis proposes the following scenario: first down to 123.40, then a rise to at least 124.40, followed by a sharp fall to a 122.00 support level. Only the technical indicators on H4 and D1 show that the pair will start moving upwards right away on Monday;
- the analysts are quite vague about USD/CHF, unlike the indicators that give a clear and almost unanimous (78%) forecast of a rise to a 0.9730-0.9750 range. Support will be at 0.9510.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 10-14 August 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- the predictions for EUR/USD panned out. According to the forecast, the pair was to maintain a sideways trend, oscillating around the 1.0970 Pivot Point. Support was set around 1.0820. Throughout the week, the bears repeatedly pressed the pair down to that level but gave up after a few failed attempts to break through it. So the pair finished the week at a 1.0960-1.0970 Pivot Point;
- the sideways trend predicted for GBP/USD lasted only until Thursday. By the end of the week, the pair managed to break through the support around 1.5510-1.5520 and fell briefly, hitting the bottom at 1.5425;
- the indicators and 11% of the experts were correct about USD/JPY. The former predicted that the pair would start going up right away on Monday while the latter claimed that the pair would reach 125.00 as a result of such movement. Then, according to graphical analysis, the pair was supposed to crash sharply, and it did on Friday on the news from the USA, reaching a strong support level at 124.15;
- almost all the indicators predicted that USD/CHF would rise to around 0.9730-0.9750, and the pair not only made it to that level but actually surpassed it by 100 points.

Forecast for the upcoming week.
Summarizing the opinions of 35 analysts from the world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be said:
- regarding EUR/USD, 36% of the experts believe that the pair will drop to 1.0800 while another 45% say that the pair will break this barrier and go further down to 1.0650-1.0700 support. The indicators on D1 concur. The remaining 19% of the experts and the indicators on H4 insist on a further short-term upward trend to 1.1000-1.1050, after which the direction of the pair’s movement should change;
- most analysts and the indicators predict that GBP/USD will fall further and transition into a 1.5340-1.5400 zone. At the same time, while in agreement with this, graphical analysis elaborates that before falling, GBP/USD will stay in a 1.5460-1.5540 sideways corridor for some time and try to break through resistance in order to reach 1.5800. Even if it happens, the bulls shouldn’t celebrate as the pair will go down sharply in 2-3 days anyway;
- the USD/JPY pair is very likely to try to reach its June high and even surpass it slightly by reaching 126.00. After this, according to graphical analysis, the pair will be moving sideways within a 124.15-125.80 range and step up efforts to go down to a 122.50 support level;
- the experts, the indicators and graphical analysis agree that USD/CHF will enter a sideways trend with a 0.9840 Pivot Point. The bulls, on the other hand, will not cease their attempts to reach a 1.0000 hallmark, even though the main resistance level for this week will be 0.9900. Support will be at 0.9800 and 0.9710.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 17-21 August 2015

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- most analysts predicted that EUR/USD would drop, and only 19% of them mentioned a continuing upward trend. Experience has shown that the majority opinion isn’t always right – on Monday, the pair started to rise sharply, broke through resistance at 1.1050 and settled down at July’s high of 1.1210;
- the situation with GBP/USD was similar. The forecast closest to reality was given only by graphical analysis – contrary to the analysts, it predicted a sideways trend with support at 1.5460 and a drive to break through resistance at 1.5540. This eventually happened, and the resistance level turned into support;
- as expected, USD/JPY attempted to reach June’s high right away but only managed to conquer a 125.25 height. Then, in full accordance with the indications of graphical analysis, the pair tumbled down and entered a sideways trend with support around 124.15;
- overall, the forecast for USD/CHF can be counted as fulfilled – a sideways trend with a 0.9840 Pivot Point, resistance at 0.9900 and support at 0.9800. The pair moved within this range for the first half of the week, then dropped to the second support around 0.9710 and continued its sideways movement.

Forecast for the coming week.
Generalizing the opinions of 35 analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on a large variety of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:
- regarding EUR/USD, 23% of the analysts support a continuation of the upward trend with the target of 1.1280, which is echoed by 56% of the indicators. But 23% of the analysts believe that the pair should descend while 46% of them indicate a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 1.1110. At the same time, the indicators and graphical analysis point to a possible fall to support at 1.1035 early in the week. The next support will be around 1.0960;
- most analysts predict GBP/USD to fall to 1.5550. With this, the indicators and graphical analysis suggest that the pair should first reach 1.5690. The inclined line of support for such rise is clearly visible on the H1 and H4 charts. Graphical analysis on D1 indicates that within the next two weeks the pair will make a few attempts to break support at 1.5550 and, if successful, it will fall to 1.5200. After that, there will be a rebound to 1.5650;
- there’s basically unanimity regarding USD/JPY – sideways movement in a 123.75-125.30 corridor with a Pivot Point at 124.60. At the same time, graphical analysis on D1 indicates that one of the pair’s attempts to reach a 126.00 height may be successful. This should happen at the very end of August;
- the USD/CHF pair is very likely to continue its upward trend which started in the last decade of June. This ascending corridor is best visible on H4. The pair is currently near its lower boundary of 0.9710, off which it’s expected to bounce up towards 0.9900. After that, USD/CHF may enter a sideways trend with support around 0.9500, as was the case in March-April of this year.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Stan NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 11 - 15 September 2017​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Since the opinions of the analysts were divided equally, we suggested to focus on the readings of the graphical analysis; both H4 and D1 indicated that the upward trend, which began in January, would continue. The target was the height of 1.2150, which the pair nearly missed, having turned around near the level of 1.2100, subsequently rolling down 70 points and finishing the week at 1.2035;

- Graphical analysis turned out to be right concerning the future of GBP/USD. Supported by 45% of analysts and 80% of indicators, it pointed to its growth to 1.3115. However, unlike EUR / USD, which did not reach the stated goal, GBP / USD, on the contrary, exceeded it, having fixed the maximum of the week at 1.3222;

- the US dollar also fell against the Japanese yen. The forecast for the USD/JPY said that the pair would once again try to test the bottom of the mid-term side channel 108.12-114.50. This was exactly what happened. Moreover, the pair tried to break through this support and descended to the level of 107.30. It will be clear in the near future whether this test has been successful or not;

- The forecast for USD/CHF turned out to be absolutely accurate. Here, the majority of analysts (about 60%), graphical analysis and more than half of the oscillators on D1 expected that it would again fall to the August 29 minimum at 0.9426. That's exactly what happened, and on Friday, September 8. the pair reached the local bottom at 0.9420.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of analysts from a number of banks and brokerages, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

– EUR/USD. Forecasting the future of this pair, most analysts (60%), as well as graphical analysis and an absolute majority of indicators, voted for the continuation of the upwards trend of the pair, foreseeing a growth to 1.2150. The following target is 1.2325. Meanwhile, graphical analysis in H4, the quarter of oscillators on D1 signalling that the pair is oversold, and 40% of experts offer an alternative viewpoint. They suggest that the pair will transition to a sideways movement in the 1.1885-1.2070 channel.
As for the longer-term forecast, over 60% of analysts remain bearish in the expectation of the pair’s eventual return to 1.1600;

– Experts’ opinions regarding the future of GBP/USD have split almost equally: 30% support the growth of the pair, an equivalent amount believes in a sideways trend, and 40% believe that the pair will fall. 100% of trend indicators and graphical analysis on D1 look northwards, whilst 20% of oscillators are already expecting a southwards reversal. The support levels are at1.2930, 1.3040 and 1.3100. The resistance levels are 1.3265 and 1.3370. The bulls’ final target is 1.3440;

– USD/JPY. Here 85% of experts believe that once the pair penetrates the lower border of the intermediate-term sideways channel it will journey southwards, aiming to settle in the 106.00-107.00 area. The remaining 15% of analysts expect a correction and the pair’s return to the resistance at 108.80. The third of oscillators on D1 that indicate the pair is oversold support this scenario;

– “South and only south” summarises the view of the 90% of analysts who maintain that USD/CHF will continue to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD and strive to the 0.9250-09.300 area.10% of experts, 20% of oscillators and graphical analysis on D1 disagree: they suggest that the pair has nearly reached its minimum (0.9425) and is now waiting to rebound up to the resistance at 0.9540. In the event it penetrates this resistance, they suggest the pair will rise even higher to 0.9260;

In conclusion, we offer a summary of the major events that may influence the directions of the trends and the volatility of the currency pairs discussed above. Starting on Tuesday, 12 September and through to the end of the week, we will observe a continuous release of data on the US consumer market. On Thursday, 14th September the central banks of Switzerland and England will announce their rate decisions: most likely these rates will remain unchanged.

Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd, #gbpusd, #usdjpy, # forex, # forex_forecast, #forex signals, #cryptocurrencies, #bitcoin
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[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for April 30 - May 04, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- as we said, the key event last week was the ECB President Mario Draghi press conference on Thursday, April 26. The pair EUR/USD had descended to the lower boundary of the three-month lateral channel around 1.2200 by that date. Recall that this behavior had been predicted by almost 100% of experts. But further on, their opinions diverged: 75% expected the pair to go up and return to the mid-term trading range, and 25% were confident that the euro would lose its positions further.
The dispute between the analysts was resolved by Mr. Draghi, who admitted that the Eurozone economy was unlikely to preserve the last year's growth rates. And although he said that the ECB will gradually reduce the QE quantitative easing program, many experts felt that its terms will likely be extended beyond 2018. As a result, the euro lost another 150 points. True, then a rebound occurred and the pair completed the week at 1.2130;

- GBP/USD. Strengthening of the dollar could not but affect the British pound. As a result, the forecast, for which about 40% of analysts voted, was implemented - the breakdown of the horizon is 1.4000 and the decline to support 1.3745, near which, at 1.3780, the pair and met the end of the weekly trading session.

- USD/JPY. 85% of analysts, graphic analysis and the clear majority of indicators had voted for the strengthening of the dollar and further growth of the pair to the heights in the 109.00 zone. This almost unanimous opinion was absolutely true, and the pair completed the five-day period at the height of 109.05;

- Cryptocurrencies. After the BTC/USD rose to 9,000, experts had expected the pair to roll back about 1,000 points down. However, this did not happen, and Bitcoin was in a sideways trend along the horizon of 9,000 for the whole of the week, making fluctuations in the range of about ± 500 points.
Other pairs behaved in a similar way. The level of 150.00 became Pivot Point for LTC/USD, and for XRP/USD, it was 0.845. And only Ethereum showed a noticeable recovery, reaching the mark of 709.83 on April 24. True, then a pullback followed, but despite this, the pair completed the week with an increase of about 10%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. If only a quarter of experts voted for the transition of the pair to the zone of 1.1915-1.2085 last week, their number has increased to 60% now. About 80% of the indicators are painted red as well. Additional support for the dollar is provided by the expectation of data on the labor market in the US on Friday, May 4. According to forecasts, the number of new jobs created outside the agricultural sector (NFP) may increase from 103K to 198K, which does not exclude the fall of the pair by another 100-115 points lower, to support 1.1800.
This time 40% of experts and graphic analysis on D1 have sided with the bulls. In their opinion, the fall below the level of 1.2200 has been temporary, and the pair will return to the medium-term horizontal channel within a week or two and will reach a height of 1.2415. Oscillators confirm this possibility, 20% of which signal the pair is oversold;

- GBP/USD. It is clear that all the trend indicators have turned to the south following the last week's results. As for the experts' opinion, here the supporters of bears have a slight advantage - 55% versus 45% for bulls. Bull sentiment is also supported by a quarter of the oscillators, giving signals that the pair is oversold, as well as graphical analysis on H4 and D1.
If the "growth party" wins, the pair will go up, starting from the support of 1.3750, aiming to rise above the level of 1.4000 and, possibly, to reach the height of 1.4075. The nearest resistance is 1.3840.
If, however, the bears' expectations come true and the pair goes south, the support will be located at the following levels: 1.3585, 1.3455 and 1.3300;

- USD/JPY. 70% of analysts, supported by most of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1, expect the continuation of the uptrend. The targets are 109.80, 110.45 and 111.25. The remaining experts together with the graphical analysis on H4 believe that the pair has already reached a local maximum, and now it is expected to decline first to the level of 108.35, and even lower in case of its breakdown. The targets in this case are 107.40 and 106.60.
It should be noted that graphical analysis on D1 also does not exclude a drop to the level of 106.60, but only after the pair reaches heights in the area of 111.00, at least;

- Cryptocurrencies. Experts expect the growth of the BTC/USD first to the level of 10.000, and then 500-700 points higher. The main support is 8.620. In case of its breakdown, it is possible to decline to the level of 7.785.
The main forecast for the pair ETH/USD is an increase to the height of 785, the next target is 865. The nearest support is 594, the next one is 500. LTC/USD: the goal is to return to the April 24 high, 165.00, the support is 140.00. XRP/USD: the goal is to rise to the level of 0.92, and then to the zone 0.942-0.985, the support is 0.7230.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 7 - 11, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. For the third week in a row, the dollar continues to strengthen its positions, having won back about 500 points from the euro. Easing of tension in trade relations with China has rendered serious support for the US currency. By Friday, May 04, as most experts (60%) supported by 80% of the indicators had expected, the pair reached the lower border of the 1.1915-1.2085 range, after which a slight rebound followed, and it stopped at 1.1960;

- GBP/USD. The victory of the dollar over the British pound, which lost about 890 points in three weeks, is even more convincing. This "fiasco" was promoted by the weak macroeconomic statistics of Great Britain, and the weakening of hopes for the Bank of England's early change of its monetary policy, and the unresolved dispute with the EU regarding the Irish border. As a result, as predicted by 55% of analysts, oscillators and graphical analysis, the pair dropped to the values of this January and completed the five-day period at 1.3530;

- USD/JPY. 70% of analysts, supported by most of the indicators, were expecting the continuation of the uptrend. The target was the height of 109.80, which was reached by the pair on the first day of May. After that, it climbed another 20 points and, as predicted by the graphical analysis, turned around and left to the south, ending the week's session almost where it had started, in zone 109.10;

- Cryptocurrencies. In general, the outlook for the cryptocurrency pairs traded in the NordFX brokerage company turned out to be absolutely correct. As we have repeatedly said, because of the rather thin market and increased volatility in this segment, the main goal of the experts is to correctly predict the trend. And this was achieved. As for the levels of support/resistance that had been declared, they are rather approximate benchmarks rather than precise targets.
So, the past week has confirmed that Bitcoin loses its dominance, gradually giving way to altcoins. Thus, despite the fact that the total crypto market capitalization has reached 438 billion dollars, the Bitcoin share in it shrank to 35.9%.
The pair BTC/USD could not reach the landmark of $10,000, stopping at 9.825. Ripple hardly reached the target as well, having managed to conquer only the height of 0.8850. But the pair ETH/USD completed the task in full, fixing the weekly maximum at the height of 806 dollars. The same applies to LTC/USD. The goal for this pair was a return to the high of April 24, $165.00, which was what happened with an accuracy of 100%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The market froze in anticipation, whether the long-awaited rebound of this pair will follow. We will say straight away that serious economic prerequisites for this are not yet around. But the market is still the market, and therefore about a third of the experts sided with the bulls, expecting the pair to rise first to resistance 1.2085, and then another 50-70 points higher. Such a development is confirmed by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 15% of oscillators, which give signals on D1 that the pair is oversold.
40% of analysts believe that the pair will take a breather and will move in the side channel 1.1900-1.2000 for a while. And, finally, the remaining 30% of experts are sure that the march to the south is not over yet, and we will see this pair in the zone 1.1800-1.1850 soon;

- A similar divergence of opinions can be observed when assessing the future GBP/USD. 40% of analysts are for the growth of the pair, 30% are for the sideways trend and 30% vote for its fall. 100% of the trend indicators and most of the oscillators are painted red. At the same time, 25% of oscillators on D1 indicate the pair is oversold, which is a signal strong enough to go up.
As for the graphical analysis, it predicts the movement in the side corridor 1.3470-1.3625 for the next few days, after which the pair should go to the north. The nearest target is 1.3790, the next one is 1.4000.
The decisive day for forming the trend is likely to be Thursday, May 10, which can be called the Day of the Bank of England. And much depends on whether and how much the interest rate on the British pound will be raised, and what the Central bank's chairman, Mark Carney, will say during his press conference.
The support levels are 1.3470 and 1.3300;

- Last week's reciprocal movement of the pair USD/JPY completely confounded not only the experts, but also the indicators: half of them recommend buying, the second half - selling. It is only graphic analysis, which both on H4 and D1 uniquely points to the south, calling 108.60, 107.40 and 106.60 as targets. The resistance levels are 109.50 and 110.00.
If we talk about forecasts up the end of May, it is already 70% of analysts who expect the pair to rise to the area of 111.50-112.00, and further - to an altitude of 113.40;

- Cryptocurrencies. Fundamental news around crypto market show increased activity of institutional investors, so experts expect the pair BTC/USD to continue to grow to the level of 10,300-10,700. The main support is 8.620. The forecast for the pair ETH/USD is growth to the $ 900 zone, support at the horizons of 700 and 595. LTC/USD: the goal is to rise to the levels of 175-180. XRP/USD: the goal is the same, to rise to the level of 0.92, and then to the zone 0.942-0.985, the support is 0.7230.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 14 - 18, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that the opinions of experts last week were divided almost evenly: one third sided with the bears, one third sided with the bulls, and 30% took a neutral position, expecting a sideways trend. As a result, as if fulfilling an order, the pair first went down to the level of 1.1822, then rose by 145 points and completed the five-day period almost in the same place where it started, in the zone of 1.1940.
In total, in less than a month, from April 19 to May 09, the pair lost about 580 points, without any serious corrections, which caused serious financial damage to those traders who had opened positions to buy against the trend and could not stand such an impressive drawdown of the deposit;

- a similar divergence of opinions could be observed when assessing the future of the GBP/USD. We could expect any changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England on Thursday, May 10, but everything went on without surprises, and the pair stayed practically within the boundaries of the side corridor, which was drawn for it by graphical analysis, 1.3460-1.3615.

- The pair USD/JPY also moved into a sideways trend, making return-oscillating movements in the range of 108.75-110.00 the second week in a row. The week ended with the pair being close to the beginning of the week, in the horizon, which can be called Pivot Point in the first half of May - 109.40;

- Cryptocurrencies. Experts expected the bitcoin to grow above the 10.300 mark, and the pair BTC/USD did, from the very beginning, go up, but could not even reach 10,000. Having reached the mark of 9,950, it turned and rolled down. the fall was accelerated by the Mt.Gox sell-off and by the statements of two super-billionaires - the head of Berkshire Hathaway Warren Buffett and the Microsoft founder Gates.
The Japanese crypto-exchange Mt.Gox sold bitcoins worth more than $ 70 million, and the market immediately responded to it by a large-scale correction. Things were made even worse by Warren Buffett, who said that cryptocurrencies would end badly, and Bill Gates, who called bitcoin one of the most speculative things in the world. As a result, the pair fell below a very strong support level of 8.620 on Friday, May 11.
ETH/USD and XRP/USD could not achieve their goals either. it was only the LTC/USD that fulfilled the task, reaching the height of 183.75. But it could not resist the general crypto market trend, and, having made a quick U-turn, went down following the "colleagues", falling to the lows of the last few weeks in the area of 135.00.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. More than 70% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1, as well as indicators on H4, expect the pair to continue to grow, which it started to do in the middle of last week. The nearest target is zone 1.2050-1.2100, the next one is 1.2215. Less than one third support the bears this time, but trend indicators on D1 and 15% of oscillators, indicating the pair is overbought, agree with them. In case they win, the pair can return to the horizon 1.1800. The next support is at the level of 1.1715;

- GBP/USD. Considering that the pair has already fully worked out the reversal pattern "double top", most analysts (60%) vote for the pair's growth. This script is also supported by graphical analysis. Signals that the pair is oversold are sent by 20% of oscillators on D1 as well. The nearest resistance is 1.3625, the target is 1.3765.
As for the remaining 40% of experts, in their opinion, the pair could fall to the level of 1.3450, and, in case of its breakdown, 150 points lower, to support 1.3300;

- it is impossible to form any consensus on the future of USD/JPY at the moment. Both the opinions of analysts, and the indicators' readings are divided approximately equally: one half are for the growth, one half are for the fall of the pair. As for the graphical analysis, it indicates a further decrease in the pair to the lower boundary of the two-week lateral channel 108.75-110.00 both on H4 and D1. Having reached it, it is quite possible that the pair will turn around and go up to the level of 110.00. This can happen before the end of May, and it is already 70% of experts who agree with this;

- Cryptocurrencies. At the end of Friday, May 11, the pair BTC/USD was slightly below the lower boundary of the three-week side corridor 8.620-9.955. Many analysts believe that if the week does not receive another portion of negative news, the pair will return to the borders of this channel.
However, a number of experts believe that the bitcoin will continue to fall, and in this case it can find a local bottom at the level of 7.720. The pair will be able to get back to the marks around 10,000 only by the very end of May.
Analysts expect downtrends to continue during the coming week for the rest of the currency pairs: ETH/USD, LTC/USD and XRP/USD. However, this correction, in their opinion, will be temporary, and all the pairs are expected to return to the highs of the first week of May, by the end of the month.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for May 21 - 25, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that about 70% of experts expected that the pair would rise at least to the height of 1.2050. However, the bulls' strength dried up before it approached the level of 1.2000, where the initiative was intercepted by the bears. Trend indicators on D1 and 15% of the oscillators sided with them, giving signals that the pair was overbought. As expected, the pair was quick to reach the horizon 1.1800, and then moved further down, having touched the local bottom at the level of 1.1750;

- GBP/USD. This pair moves in a fairly narrow side corridor for the second week in a row. Most analysts (60%) voted for its growth last week. But, having gone 65 points to the north, the pair turned around and, as was expected by the remaining 40% of experts, dropped to the support of 1.3450, near which it met the end of the session, having lost only 75 points during the week;

- 70% of experts predicted that the pair USD/JPY would rise to 110.00 by the end of May. But it was much ahead of expectations, having reached this level of resistance already on Tuesday, May 15. After that, turning it into a support, the pair went another 100 points higher. Then it lost 25 points and finished the five-day period at the level of 110.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. Some analysts believed that the BTC/USD pair should return to the borders of the three-week side corridor 8,620-9,955, and on May 14 it reached the level of 8,850. However, it didn't manage to gain a foothold at this level, and soon the pair retreated to the values of the beginning of the week in the zone 8,000. In general, the week was quite calm for other major cryptopairs: the Litecoin as well as the Ethereum and the Ripple completed it almost in the same place where they started.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. 60% of experts predict the movement of the pair to the east along Pivot Point 1.1800. Graphical analysis on D1 also draws a side channel, indicating the boundaries as 1.1750-1.2000. 15% of the oscillators also indicate a certain growth of the pair, giving signals that it is oversold.
The remaining 40% of analysts expect the continuation of the downtrend. Support is at the levels of 1.1700, 1.1665 and 1.1585.
Talking about important events of the upcoming week, we should pay attention to the meeting of the FRS Committee on Open Markets on Wednesday, May 23, the ECB meeting on monetary policy on Thursday, May 24 and the speech of the head of the US Federal Reserve, J. Powell, on Friday, May 25.

- GBP/USD. The experts' opinions are divided almost equally: 35% are for the growth of the pair, 35% are for its fall and 30% vote for the continuation of the lateral trend.
As for graphical analysis, it also predicts lateral movement in the range 1.3450-1.3615 on both H4 and D1, after which a powerful collapse and the transition of the pair to 1.3300 zone is expected to follow.

- USD/JPY. 65% of experts, 95% of trend indicators and 90% of oscillators, as well as graphical analysis on D1 expect the continuation of the uptrend. The nearest goal is the height of 112.00, the next one is 100 points higher.
35% of analysts have voted for a decline, supported by 10% of the oscillators, which signal that the pair is overbought. Graphical analysis on H4 does not exclude the possibility of temporary correction down to the horizon of 109.85;

- Cryptocurrencies. The main forecast of stock exchange experts on the BTC/USD pair assumes the growth of bitcoin in an effort to reach $10,000. Support is at the levels of 8,100 and 7,900. As for the oscillators, there is no unity among them. For example, MACD on H4 demonstrates a small divergence with a price chart, which indicates the possibility of the growth of the pair. On the other hand, the indicator of trading volumes MFI (Money Flow Index) on H4 is in the overbought zone and looks to the south. On D1, the picture is exactly the opposite.
As for other cryptopairs, analysts believe that their correction is completed, and now they will strive up, following the bitcoin. Ethereum (ETH/USD): the nearest target is 740.00, the next one is 835.00, the support is 635.00. Litecoin (LTC/USD): the goals are 150.00 and 180.00, the support is in the area of 130.00. Ripple (XRP/USD): the target is 0.8850, the main support is 0.6140.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June - August 2018​

Traditionally, summer is the time when business activity slows down: VIPs are basking in the sun on their snow-white yachts, the heads of the Central Banks leave the boring offices, setting important tasks aside for the autumn, and they are followed by ordinary traders who get a break. However, even the summer months can present surprises. Suffice it to recall the referendum on the withdrawal of the UK from the EU in June 2016, the results of which literally shocked all the stock and financial markets.
Such breaking news is not expected in the coming three months, but some events will be able to exert a strong, if not decisive, influence on the formation of exchange rates and trends.

- EUR/USD. Most likely, the ECB will send a signal in summer about its intention to end this year with a super-soft policy of buying up assets. This will happen, most likely, either after the meeting on June 14, or July 26, because the next meeting will happen in autumn. The intention to finish with the quantitative easing program (QE) and go into a new phase of development has been repeatedly stated by the heads of European Central Banks - by the head of the Bank of France Villeroia de Gallo, and the management of the German Bundesbank, and the head of the Bank of Lithuania Vitas Vasiliauskas.
As a result, despite the fact that the Euro can still continue to decline for some time, the markets are already prepared for a trend change. And if after one of the mentioned meetings the statements of the ECB Head Mario Draghi contain hawk notes, the Euro will immediately fly up.
More than 60% of the polled experts agree with this scenario at the moment, they believe that the pair EUR/USD will definitely return to the highs of 2018 in the zone 1.2400-1.2555 by September.
10% of analysts are still undecided, and about 30% of experts have voted for the further strengthening of the dollar. This, in their view, will be facilitated by the further raise of the interest rate by the US Federal Reserve against the backdrop of the ECB's muffled rhetoric. The bears' supporters expect the Fed to raise the rate by another 0.5% in the next six months, which will lead to a fall of the euro to the last September's low in the zone 1.1550. Moreover, such a decrease may occur in the near future, far outstripping the real actions of the Fed.
If we talk about technical analysis, its forecasts are more modest. It predicts a fairly low volatility and fluctuations of the pair in the corridor 1.1600-1.2000 for the beginning of the summer. Oscillators also expect correction upwards after 700 points of fall. So, a quarter of them are already signaling that this pair is oversold on the daily and weekly timeframes.

- GBP/USD. The pound continues to be pressured by uncertainty and disagreement with the European Union regarding the Brexit, as well as the absence of any changes in the monetary policy of the Bank of England. Starting from April 17, the pound has already lost more than 900 points and, if you look at the readings of graphical analysis and indicators, it does not intend to stop there.
So, the graphical analysis on D1 assumes that, having beaten off from resistance 1.3455, the pair can sharply go down, reaching the bottom at the level of 1.3065. And in case of the breakdown of this support, it can fall another 300 points lower - to the horizon 1.2765.
However, only 35% of experts support this development, 10% are neutral and 55% are confident that, starting from the middle of summer, the pound will start to gain strength and the pair will rise at least to 1.4000-1.4100. In this case, we must take into account that as of now, only one out of ten oscillators indicates that the pair is oversold.

- USD/JPY. It is clear that almost all trend indicators and oscillators on D1 and W1 are painted green. Only 10% of oscillators say that this pair is overbought.
It is necessary to pay attention to the fact that the pair has returned to the boundaries of the side channel 108.25-114.70, along which it has moved starting from the beginning of 2017. It broke through the lower boundary of this corridor in mid-February 2018, but now it has again approached its Pivot Point. Perhaps this is the reason for the divergence of opinions among experts: a third of them are for the movement of the pair to the north, a third vote for the east and a third think it will go to the south.
We can conclude from the above that the pair will stay in this range for the nearest months, which is confirmed by graphical analysis. At the beginning of summer, it expects the pair to move in the range of 108.25-112.00, after which the pair can go up to resistance 114.70.

- Cryptocurrencies. We should remind you once again that, due to the fact that the cryptocurrency market is thin and has increased volatility, digital currency rates can be strongly influenced not only by the decisions of various regulators, but also by the statements and actions of private companies and newsmakers of this industry.
For the pair BTC/USD, experts expect growth to the height of 11,750-12,980 by the middle of July, after which it is expected to roll back - first to the horizon of 10,000, and then, possibly, to the support of 7,160.
Analysts expect about the same dynamics for other cryptocurrencies included in the TOP-10 in terms of capitalization. So, it is not excluded that the pair ETH/USD will overcome the mark of $1000 for 1 coin in July, then it will return to the values of May in the $650 area.
LTC/USD. The pair will try to approach the height of $200 for a litecoin, then it will roll back to $140.
The immediate goal of the pair XRP/USD is to return to zone 0.8850. If it is reached, the next height is 1.0000, after which the rollback to the values in the region of 0.6300-0.7000 is expected.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 04-08, 2018​

First, a few words about the behavior of the major currency pairs and cryptocurrency pairs over the past week:

- EUR/USD. The behavior of this pair at the beginning of the week was determined by the fear of the players over possible political changes in Italy. As a result, the pair dropped to the values of a year ago, closely approaching the 1.1500 mark. However, the situation in the eurozone eventually entered a calmer channel, the Italian populists agreed on the composition of the government, and the dollar gradually began to lose its positions. Against this background, the euro managed to win back about 215 points from the "American", and even the positive data on the US labor market on Friday (NFP increased from 159K to 223K) could not fundamentally change the situation. As a result, the pair completed the five-day period almost in the same place, where it started, in the zone of 1.1660;

- The dynamics which are similar to the previous pair were demonstrated by the pair GBP/USD. First it fell to the level of November 2017, but the support in the 1.3200 zone was invincible for it, and the pair went up to the height of 1.3345. Then the bears started to counter attack, but after a short struggle, the victory was with the bulls. As a result, the pair managed to gain a foothold above a fairly strong level of the last two weeks - 1.3300, and completed the week at 1.3345;

- USD/JPY. At the beginning of the week, the yen continued its growth, but then began to lose positions. And this was despite the fact that the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in May increased slightly. It is possible that the fall of the yen is due to the actions of the Central Bank of Japan, which reduced the purchases of government bonds for the first time since August 2017. The result of a week-long contest of bulls and bears is a draw, the end of the trading session was met by the pair at 109.52;

- Cryptocurrencies. If you compare the graphs of the bitcoin and major altcoins, they quite accurately repeat the movement of major currency pairs: a fall in the first half of the week and a return to the starting positions, in the second one. The capitalization of the crypto market as a whole has not practically changed either and is $330 billion.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Both the oscillators and the trend indicators on H4 took a neutral position, while on D1, they still recommend selling the pair. As for analysts, they mainly focus is on the "trade wars" of the United States and news about the introduction of customs duties on the import of aluminum in relation to the EU countries, Mexico and Canada now. In this regard, most of them (55 %) tend to the fact that the pair can climb to the zone 1.1800-1.1830. At the same time, graphical analysis on H4 specifies that afterwards it is not ruled out to go down to support in the area of 1.1600.
In the longer term, the number of bull supporters among experts increases to almost 70%, and the targets are indicated at heights of 1.2000 and even 1.2200. As for the bears, in their opinion, the pair will not be able to overcome the resistance at 1.1800 and the seven-week long downtrend will continue;

- GBP/USD. Indicators for this pair are very similar to those for EUR/USD. Experts' opinions do not differ too much either, 60% of them expect that the pound will be able to rise to 1.3420, and, in case of its breakdown, reach the zone 1.3500. The next resistance is 100 points higher.
However, the problems of Great Britain connected with the withdrawal from the EU have not disappeared. And, in case of negative economic news, the pound will continue its decline, reaching a local bottom in the zone of 1.3085. Graphical analysis on D1 agrees with this scenario, pointing to another support at 1.2900;

- USD/JPY. We talked above about the reduction of bonds purchase by the Central Bank of Japan. The market is only assessing the situation so far, but the big players may well decide to move the yen further down. Moreover, some of the high-ranking Japanese officials already express clear concern about the possible escalation of trade wars into the Land of the Rising Sun as well.
In the meantime, the opinions of both analysts and indicators have been divided into three almost equal parts - one third are for the fall of the pair, one third are for its growth and another third support the sideways trend. Supports are at the levels of 108.95, 108.65 and 107.50. Resistances are 110.00, 110.45 and 111.10;

- Cryptocurrencies. The analysis of the market shows that not only the digital currencies themselves are subject to collapse, but also the participants of this market. For example, the OKCoin crypto-exchange, which occupied the first place two years ago, is now in the 188th place. In general, during this time, 8 out of 10 crypto market leaders have lost their positions.
The launch of the futures for cryptocurrencies, as well as pessimism of institutional investors has had a negative impact both on the current dynamics and on forecasts. As a result, most likely, we should not expect the same take-off of the exchange rate of virtual money, as we saw in June last year.
Now, almost all major crypto-pairs are repeating the movements of their leader - BTC/USD, which, while reducing volatility, continues to consolidate around the horizon 7,150.
If we follow the theory of graphical analysis, we now see the formation of a figure called Pennant. However, the direction of the further breakdown obviously depends not on the Forex theorists, but on the decisions and actions, primarily of the major regulators.
In the case of a rebound upward, one can expect the bitcoin to move to the height of 11,700. The start for this will be the return of the pair BTC/USD to the zone above 9,000. In case of negative developments , we will soon see the bitcoin in the 5,000-6,000 zone. In the upcoming week, most likely, the bitcoin will test the support in the zone 7,025-7,200.

As for the altcoins, as already mentioned above, the Ethereum (ETH/USD), the Litecoin (LTC/USD), and the Ripple (XRP/USD) will most likely follow the bitcoin in the near future without taking any independent action.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 11-15, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The basic forecast for this pair, supported by the majority of analysts, assumed its growth to the zone of 1.1800-1.1830. The pair went up indeed, fixing the week's high at 1.1839. So, taking into account the standard backlash, the forecast turned out to be absolutely correct. A rebound followed, and, as a result, the pair completed the trading session at the horizon 1.1770;

- GBP/USD. The forecast for this pair was very similar to that for the EUR/USD. 60% of experts had expected that the pound could rise to the level of 1.3420, and, in case of its breakdown, reach the zone 1.3500. It actually happened so - on Thursday, June 08, having broken the resistance of 1.3420, the pair briefly managed to rise to the height of 1.3470, then the bulls' strength dried up, and the pair met the end of the week 70 points lower - in the zone 1.3400;

- USD/JPY. Recall that last week the opinions of both analysts and indicators were divided into three almost equal parts - one-third voted for the fall of the pair, one-third were for its growth and another third voted for the sideways trend. And, as is often the case in such situations, everyone was right: the pair first grew to 110.25, then fell back to support 109.20, then again grew up and completed the five-day period almost in the same place where it started, in the zone of 109.55;

- Cryptocurrencies. As was said earlier, almost all major cryptopairs have been recently repeating the movements of their leader, BTC/USD. And the bitcoin, in turn, draws the Pennant and, constantly reducing volatility, continues to consolidate in the horizon area slightly above 7,000. So, if you look at the chart of D1, it is clearly visible that this "father" of all virtual currencies moved strictly horizontally in an extremely narrow corridor 7.345 - 7.730 for the whole week. It was followed in the sideways trend by all the major altcoins, and the attempt of the Ethereum and the Litecoin to break away from the leader and break through up at the beginning of the week, was unsuccessful, as expected. As a result, they returned to the initial levels: the Ethereum to around $600 per coin, and the Litecoin to $118.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. President Donald Trump's opponents must be very upset - to their great disappointment, his economic policy brings positive results: the number of jobs in the US in 2018 grew by more than a million, the inflation reached the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, the trade deficit is declining, and the gross domestic product is growing. All this leads to the dollar strengthening, which plays against American importers, and it also leads to the discontent among the financial elites of many countries whose currencies have now reached the historic lows.
As a result, the overwhelming majority of experts (65%), supported by graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and 70% of oscillators, believe that the correction which started last week, will continue, but the pair's growth will be limited by the resistance in the zone of 1.2000. (In case of a breakdown when the pair fixes above, the next target is 100 points higher).
As for the supports, the main ones are located at the levels of 1.1650 and 1.1570;

- As for the pair GBP/USD, the correction to the level of 1.3615 is expected to continue by 65% of analysts. The next resistance is at the height of 1.3700, however, only 45% of experts vote for such growth. Graphical analysis on D1 also believes that the correction will be completed in the zone 1.3615, after which the pound sterling will continue its decline. The support levels are 1.3200, 1.3125 and 1.3040;

- But as for the Japanese yen, according to the readings of graphical analysis, on the contrary, it should strengthen its position. As a result, the pair USD/JPY may fall to the level of 108.00. However, only 40% of experts agreed with this scenario, 50% supported the growth of the pair, and another 10% are for the sideways trend. The oscillators do not have obvious signals either - on H4,most of them side with the bears, and on D1 the advantage is smoothly passed to the bulls. Resistances are at horizons 110.25 and 111.40;

- As for the main cryptocurrencies, their extremely low volatility does not allow us to speak of any stable trends emerging. And we are talking not only about the short-term forecast, but also about the forecast up to the end of this year. Thus, many analysts predict a gradual drying up of this market and a decrease in its capitalization. In this regard, the most likely target for the bitcoin for December 2018. is named as12,500 instead of previously announced 15,000.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 18-22, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Billionaire George Soros is confident that further strengthening of the dollar will lead to a new financial crisis. At the same time, 10 out of 60 analysts interviewed by Reuters believe that the growth of the US currency will be completed within a month, 35 are confident that the strengthening of the dollar will last at least until the fall, and another 15 give the USD growth until the end of the year. Experts from ABN Amro are among the latter, they believe that the euro should fall to the level of 1.1000, and only then, in 2019, it will be able to restore some of the lost ground.
Interestingly, the decision of the US Federal Reserve to raise the interest rate to 2%, which was announced last week, did not surprise anyone. The information that this year should expect two more similar increases, and three in the future did not cause a stir either. The euro quickly recovered and, moreover, demonstrated growth against the background of these events to the level of 1.1850.
But the ECB's decision to extend the quantitative easing (QE) regime instantly dropped the euro against the dollar by more than 300 points. Our experts had named the level 1.1570 as the main support zone, to which the EUR/USD did rush. Due to the unusually powerful bearish impulse, by inertia, it even dropped 30 points lower, however, after coming to its senses, it soon turned around and completed the trading session at 1.1610;

- 65% of analysts expected further correction of the GBP/USD to the level of 1.3615, after which it had to resume its movement to the south. However, the pair could not rise even above the level of 1.3445 and rushed down again, trying, as on May 29, to break through support in the zone of 1.3200. And, just like in May, the attempt failed, after which the pair returned to zone 1.3280;

- USD/JPY. 50% of analysts supported the growth of this pair, referring to the horizons as 110.25 and 111.40 as resistance, between which, at 110.60, it completed the five-day period;

- Cryptocurrencies. In recent days, following their leader bitcoin, almost all of them have broken through important support levels and moved further south, testing new horizons. Thus, BTC managed to break through supports of $7,125 and $7,000 and reached a weekly low of $6,110 on June 14, then it managed to win back about 7% and rise to $6,575. Similar dynamics were demonstrated by the remaining virtual currencies included in the TOP-10 market capitalization.
Since the beginning of the year, the crypto market capitalization has decreased by 44.3% (from $611 billion to $340 billion). Just over the night of 10 to 11 June, the market shrank by another $25 billion. Many traders and analysts tried to explain this collapse by the Coinrail exchange in South Korea being hacked, but in reality, it lost only $40 million, so the theft was most likely just an excuse for another lowering the price of crypto-coins.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- In addition to the extension of the QE program mentioned above, the ECB's decision to leave the benchmark interest rate at a record low of 0%, and the deposit rate at -0.4%, also exerts strong pressure on the euro. It was also stated that these rates will not be raised "at least until the summer of 2019". At the same time, Mario Draghi admitted that the economy of the Eurozone in 2018 will not return to the forecasted level of growth.
All this, coupled with the success of President Donald Trump's economic policy, creates significant prerequisites for the further strengthening of the dollar. That's why 65% of experts expect that in the coming week the EUR/USD will test the level of 1.1500 and, if successful, could drop another 100 points lower. 90% of the oscillators on H4 and D1 also agree with this development,
As for the remaining 35% of experts, in their opinion, the pair still has chances to return to zone 1.1825, but the likelihood of such a development will depend on what the ECB Head Mario Draghi and the Fed, J. Powell, will say in their statements earlier this week;

- it is clearly visible on the GBP / USD chart that the pair moves in the lateral channel 1.3200-1.3470.for the fourth week in a row. At the same time, 60% of analysts believe that, following the euro, the British pound will also continue its decline. In their view, the pair GBP/USD may as well break through the lower boundary of this channel and move to the level of 1.3050-1.3200. This scenario is supported by graphical analysis on D1 and the absolute majority of indicators.
An alternative point of view, represented by 40% of experts, suggests the movement of the pair in the side corridor 1.3200-1.3345. The next resistance is in the zone is 1.3400.
On Thursday, June 21, the next meeting of the Bank of England should take place. However, with a high probability, it will not present any surprises, so it is not worth it to expect serious exchange rate jumps at this moment;

- a day earlier than their British counterparts, the Committee on Monetary Policy of the Bank of Japan will hold a meeting. As for the experts, two-thirds of them cautiously support the small growth of the pair USD JPY to the area of 111.00-111.50. The next resistance is 112.00.
This time, a third of analysts, graphic analysis on H4 and D1, as well as 20% of oscillators, side with the bears, signalling the pair is overbought. In case their scenario turns out to be correct, the pair is expected to decline first to support 109.40, and then, possibly, further - to levels 109.00 and 108.50;

- Most of the forecasts for basic cryptocurrencies can be reduced to just two sentences: 1) in the near future they will continue to fall, and 2) they should grow in the long term. For example, according to the forecast of Fundstrat Global Advisors analysts, the bitcoin can fall to the level of $ 3,250. However, even this, in their opinion, "will not break the long-term ascending trend of the first cryptocurrency".
The closest target for BTCUSD, according to the founder of Onchain Capital Ran Neuner, is the level of $5,900. The optimistic part of his forecast is that "if the price of the bitcoin reaches 20, 40 or 80 thousand dollars within a few years, then no one will be worried about whether it was bought for $6,000 or $6,500. Only traders working on a scale of less than a year should be concerned about the current drop in the market price. "The only thing that the expert didn't specify is when this long-awaited take-off to 80,000 takes place.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for June 25-29, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Most experts (65%) expected the pair to make an attempt to break through the 1.1500 support, which actually happened. However, the attempt failed, the bears' strengths weakened and, against the background of a temporary lull in the trade war between the US and China, the dollar lost about 160 points to the euro, pushing the pair to the PivotPoint zone of the last six months and finishing the five-day period at 1.1657;

- 60% of analysts spoke in favor of the fact that the GBP/USD could break through the lower boundary of the four-week channel 1.3200-1.3470 and fall to the horizon 1.3050. This forecast was correct: on Tuesday, June 19, the pair was below the support of 1.3200, and on Thursday, June 21, it reached the level of 1.3100. However, then the Bank of England presented a small unexpected surprise. Instead of the projected 2 votes against 7, the interest rate increase received 3 votes. Of course, this did not bring any basic changes, but the bulls understood such a result as a hint of a possible rate hike in August and began to push the pound up. As a result, by the end of the week session, the pair was able to rise to 1.3260;

- USD/JPY. The results of the previous week showed once again that signals of even a small part of oscillators should be taken into account. So, this time 20% of the oscillators signaled the pair was overbought. They were supported by a third of analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, indicating the main support in the zone 109.40. Taking a standard backlash into account, this forecast turned out to be absolutely accurate: the pair reached the local bottom at 109.54 on Tuesday, after which it rebounded up to a height of 110.75, and then returned to the main medium-term support/resistance line in the 110.00 zone;

- Cryptocurrencies. Back in early June, the total capitalization of this market was $330 billion, now it is $283 billion, that is, in just a few weeks the market was "blown away" by about 15% (more than 50% since the beginning of the year).
If you look at the BTCUSD chart, you can observe the same picture for the seventh week: strained bulls' attempts to raise the pair up, and then a weekly sharp collapse, which negates all their efforts. As a result, having fallen to the level of $5,925, the bitcoin has reached the minimum of February 6, 2018.
It really does not make sense to talk about the reasons for such falls now - whether this is a negative decision of yet another regulator, or hacking of yet another exchange. All these are just reasons to "sink" the rate of the main crypto currency by another few hundred dollars. Altcoins included in the TOP-10 in terms of capitalization - etherium, ripple, litecoin and others, - obediently follow the bitcoin down, adversely affecting the mood of the market.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- as for the economic data, which can continue pushing the EUR/USD upwards, we can note only a slightly noticeable growth of the Eurozone composite PMI index. Apparently, this is the reason why 55% of experts give only a very cautious forecast, indicating the zone 1.1725-1.1750 as a target. The vast majority of indicators on H4 are also painted green, but it is already 15% of the oscillators that indicate that the pair is overbought.
The remaining 45% of analysts are sure that the growth of the euro is a temporary phenomenon, and the pair will once again test the level of 1.1500, and in case of its breakdown it will drop 100 points lower.
But the graphical analysis on D1 offers a compromise option: first the pair's fall into the zone 1.1450-1.1500, and then its growth to the height of 1.1840;

- the main trend for the GBP/USD so far is formed by the chief economist of the Bank of England Andy Haldane, who gave his vote on Thursday for raising the interest rate. In addition, the regulator has given a positive assessment to the British economy as a whole and indicated a readiness to reduce the balance after the rate rises to 1.5% (against 0.5% of today). Such "hawkish" statements led to the fact that 65% of experts expect the continuation of the uptrend and the pair's transition to the zone 1.3350-1.3450.
The remaining 35% of analysts seem to belong to the conspiracy theorists and believe that all statements of the regulator are only attempts to support the rate of the pound, which has lost more than 1,000 points since April. Proceeding from this, these experts believe that the fall of the pair will continue and it will reach the level of 1.3100 in the near future. The next support is 100 points lower.

- As for the pair USD/JPY, the opinions of analysts were divided equally - half are for the growth of the pair, half are for its fall, and both indicate a decrease in volatility. The support levels are 109.85 and 109.50, the resistance is 110.25 and 110.60. The graphical analysis on H4 agrees with the experts, indicating a gradual consolidation in the 110.10 zone.
It should be noted that about 15% of the oscillators indicate the pair is oversold, suggesting the correction of the pair up in the near future.

- Cryptocurrencies. It seems that the critical time is approaching, when market makers will have to decide whether the bitcoin should continue falling, or the trend should turn upwards.
If the BTC/USD confidently passes the support in the $5,900-6,100 zone, it is highly likely that after some time it will be seen near the horizon $4,300, where it stayed for a long time in last August-September.
If this support proves invincible, the bulls will do their best to bring the bitcoin back to the May highs and maybe even reach the coveted mark of 10,000.

The struggle in the main virtual currencies market is expected to be serious in the near future, and in conditions of such uncertainty, it is possible that crypto traders should not wait for any obvious powerful trend to appear, but it makes sense to focus on intraday trading .And this concerns not only the bitcoin, but also all the basic altcoins.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 02-06, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be almost 100% correct. Recall that we spoke of a slight increase to 1.1725-1.1750 (and the pair actually climbed to 1.1720), as well as its possible drop and another attempt to test the level of 1.1500 (on Thursday the pair dropped to the horizon 1.1525). In the end, while maintaining the balance between bulls and bears, it returned to the Pivot Point zone for the last one and a half months and completed the five-day period at the level of 1.1680;

- GBP/USD. Thanks to the votes from the Bank of England, a positive mood prevailed in the analysts' camp last week - 65% of them expected a pair to rise above 1.3350. However, those 35% of experts who believed that all hawkish statements of the regulator were nothing more than an attempt to support the rate of the British pound, which had lost more than 1,000 points since April, turned out to be right. According to their forecasts, the pair was to fall into the zone of 1.3000-1.3100. That's exactly what happened: the local bottom was found exactly in the middle of the zone, after which the GBP/USD returned to 1.3200;

- USD/JPY. Once again, the oscillators turned out to be right - 15% of them pointed it was oversold, and that was enough for the pair to go up. At the same time, it stayed within the rather narrow monthly lateral channel 109.20-110.90, which confirmed the consolidation of the pair in the 110.10 zone;

- Cryptocurrencies. The forecast for BTC/USD said that if the pair confidently passes support in the $5,900-6,100 zone, with a high probability, after a while it will be seen near the horizon $4,300. And it was on June 28, that the bears decidedly went for a breakthrough. It seemed that the collapse was imminent, but when it reached $5,790, the pair first froze, and then jerked up on June 30, reaching a height of $6,525. As a result, over a day, bitcoin has grown by more than 10%, the reason for which was the mysterious large-scale purchase of BTC by an unknown investor, which occurred after the CME futures closed.
Many altcoins went into the growth. following bitcoin. The highest growth was demonstrated by Bitcoin Cash + 13% and Litecoin + 11%. The average growth of the top twenty cryptos was 7-10%.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- Last week, the short-term growth of the EUR/USD was caused by the results of the EU summit and the agreement on migration issues reached. However, in the near future it is hardly possible to have a release of new economic data, which would push the pair EUR/USD further up. The publication of the data on the labor market in the United States (NFP) on Friday July 07 is of particular interest, but the information on the possible tightening of the Fed's monetary policy may be on the other side of the scale. As a result, according to 35% of experts, the pair will be able to stay in the side corridor 1.1500-1.1725.
At the same time, it is possible that it will still be able to break the upper boundary of this channel and rise to zone 1.1725-1.1825. This version is supported by 20% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4
The remaining 45% of experts, together with graphical analysis on D1 and 15% of oscillators signaling that the pair is overbought, believe that it will once again test the level of 1.1500, and in case of its breakdown it will drop by 100-150 points lower;

- A similar picture is drawn by graphical analysis for the GBP/USD as well: on H4, a rise to the level of 1.3300-1.3335, and a fall into the zone 1.2900-1.3100 on D1. 15% of the oscillators also agree with the latter scenario.
As for the experts' opinion, they are divided almost equally: 35% support the growth of the pair, 35% are for its fall and 30% favor the sideways trend.
We can assume from all of the above, that the pair will continue to move east along the horizon 1.3200, fluctuating in the range 1.3050-1.3325.
If we talk about a medium-term forecast, 65% of analysts have supported the growth of the pair to 1.3450-1.3615 zone, and only 35% have voted for its fall below the level of 1.3000. In the event that the head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, directly or indirectly confirms the "hawkish" statements of his colleague Andy Haldane in his speech on Thursday, July 05, the pair's jump may be expected as early as this week;

- USD/JPY. Despite the fact that it is already 10% of oscillators on H4 and D1 that give signals that the pair is overbought, most experts (55%) still expect the pair to grow at least to the 111.45 horizon. And it is only after that, in their opinion, it can return to the support of 110.00. This development is supported by graphical analysis on D1, it warns that, if this level is broken through, the pair can very quickly drop another 100 points lower;

- Cryptocurrencies. Seeing the latest jerk up of the bitcoin, the crypto world wondered: what was this? The long-awaited turn of the trend and the fulfillment of John McAfee's prophecy that bitcoin will cost $1 million per coin by 2020? Or just another trap? And, maybe, the IMF's Kenneth Rogoff was right, when he said that by the end of the year the rate of this forefather of virtual currencies will fall to some miserable $100?
Perhaps the answer to this question remains to be seen soon. For now, as the ancient Greek sage Skelef said, everyone sees what he wants. Analysts who are optimists say that if bitcoin confidently overcomes the level of $ 6,700, it will be a strong enough positive signal for the trend to change. As for the pessimists, we see the last breath of a dying coin. And if the pair BTC/USD is fixed below the horizon of $5,900, it is highly likely that after a while it will be possible to be seen about $4,300, and then even lower.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 09-13, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecasts of the majority of experts (55%) included the level of 1.1725, which the pair must have achieved this week. And this was what happened. Positive economic data from Germany as well as not the rosiest statistics from the labor market in the US (NFP declined by 12.7%), and the once again inflaming trade war between the US and China side with the Euro. As a result, the pair gradually, step by step, reached the height of 1.1765. Then a small correction followed, and it completed the trading session at the level of 1.1745;

- GBP/USD. Summarizing rather contradictory opinions of analysts and indicators, we assumed that the pair would continue to move to the east along the horizon 1.3200, making fluctuations in the range of 1.3050-1.3325. And, judging by the graph, this forecast turned out to be correct. Starting from 1.3200 mark on Monday night, the pair first fell to the level of 1.3093, then turned and went up, rising to the height of 1.3285.
The pound was once again supported by "hawkish" statements coming from the Bank of England, and the prospect of the interest rate raising. The growth of activity in the service sector of Great Britain also added optimism for the players;

- USD/JPY. The scale that determines the quotes of this pair, on the one hand has the super soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan, and on the other - the trade wars raging on the continents, as a result of which more and more investors choose the currency of this island state as a refuge.
Proceeding from this, most experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, expected the continuation of fluctuations in quotations and the struggle between bulls and bears. According to their forecast, the pair had first to rise to the horizon of 111.45 (it grew to 111.15), and then go down to support 110.00 (in fact it reached the level of 110.27). Then another cycle of fluctuations followed, and the pair completed the five-day period at 110.46, confirming its strive for consolidation in zone 110.10;

- Cryptocurrencies. After the jump on June 30, the pair BTC/USD continued to grow and managed to even reach $6,780, after which it rolled back down. Recall that the optimistic forecast for the past week said that if bitcoin confidently overcame the level of $6,700, it would be a strong enough signal to the long-awaited trend change. However, despite a significant growth, there has been no real breakthrough of this resistance, and the level of $6,600 can be considered as the Pivot Point of the last days.
Following the bitcoin, the Ethereum (ETH/USD) showed a certain growth, although the level of $485 can be considered the upper limit of a two-month down channel. And, in case of a rebound from it, the pair can fall to the price of 360 dollars per coin.
As for the Litecoin (LTC/USD) and the Ripple (XRP/USD), they moved into a sideways trend, ending the week in the same place where it started.


As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- 60% of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the growth of the EUR/USD may continue, but it will be a small one. The level 1.1800 is named as the main resistance. The next resistance is 50 points higher. Next, during July, the pair again expects a decline to the support of 1.1500 and another attempt to break through it.15% of oscillators on H4 and D1 agree with this development of events, giving signals that the pair is overbought.
No "revolutionary" news is expected next week. However, we should pay attention to Thursday July 12. On this day data on the growth rates of industrial production in the Eurozone will be published, as well as statistics on the consumer price index in the United States. According to analysts, the rate of inflation in the US over the past month has accelerated, which could push the Fed to another interest rate hike and, as a result, render additional support to the dollar;

- For the pair GBP/USD the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 draws a rebound from support 1.3225, growth to the 1.3400 zone and the subsequent sharp drop to the horizon of 1.3000. As for the experts, in the current situation they are waiting for news from the UK.
Thus, on Tuesday July 10 data on the growth rates of industrial production for May will be published, and if it turns out that the April recession is completely overcome, the pound may rise above the 1.3300 mark.
Another speech by the head of the Bank of England may provide support for the British currency on Wednesday July 11, if Mark Carney again talks about the forthcoming tightening of the monetary policy.
The government of Great Britain can play against the pound. In the near future, it must submit its draft agreement on Brexit to the EU, and if it does not contain any important aspects for the economy of the country, the pound may again be under serious pressure;

- USD/JPY. The trade war between the US and China is again in full swing. On July 6, the duties on imported Chinese goods mounting to 25% entered into force. Washington is expected to increase sanctions by another $200 billion, to which China threatens to respond by selling off US treasury securities.
Against this background, as already mentioned, there is a growing demand for the yen, as a safe shelter currency. The pair USD/JPY rose by about 6.7% over the past four months. As for the upcoming week, most analysts (60%) expect the continuation of its growth to the level of 111.40. The remaining 40% believe that the pair has moved to a lateral movement and will be held in channel 109.35-110.80. The next support is at the level of 108.65;

- Cryptocurrencies. The major question for the near future is whether the bitcoin continues its growth or rolls back. At present, it is clearly aiming at overcoming the $7,000 mark, and buyers are not leaving the market yet. However, even now indicators show that this cryptocurrency is overbought, and, in case of any negative news, the trend can very quickly turn from bullish to bearish, returning the pair to the June lows.
On the other hand, a number of experts predict the continuation of the growth of the BTC/USD, naming as one of the numerous reasons the comeback of many investors disappointed in altcoins to this cryptocurrency, the long absence of bad news, and, paradoxically, the low volume of trading. The latter means that the desperate have already left the ship, and those who wish to sell these coins are extremely few. There remain only those who, no matter what, are ready to keep the bitcoin either till the full victory or the complete collapse. That is why the optimists keep saying that by the end of the year BTC will cost at least $50,000 (Arthur Hayes, BitMEX), or at least $25,000 (Tom Lee, FundStrat).


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 16-20, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The forecast for this pair turned out to be absolutely correct. Recall that it assumed first a small growth of the pair to the resistance of 1.1800 (in reality, it rose to the height of 1.1790), and then a fall (it fell to the level of 1.1620). After that, a rebound followed, and the pair completed the trading session in a strong support/resistance zone 1.1685;

- GBP/USD. Despite the fact that the volatility was somewhat less than expected, the main trends for this pair were fairly accurately pointed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1. According to its scenario, the pair was expected to grow to the 1.3400 zone (it rose to 1.3360), and then a sharp drop to the horizon of 1.3000 was expected (it fell to the level of 1.3100).
As expected, another blow to the pound was caused by the government of Great Britain. Last week, key Brexit ministers resigned - Foreign Minister Boris Johnson and Secretary for Brexit David Davis, which put an extra pressure on the pound;

- USD/JPY. Despite the trade war between the US and China and the growing demand for the yen as a safe haven, the super soft monetary policy of the Bank of Japan still plays against the currency of this island nation. The main blow to the yen was caused by the rapid growth of Asian stocks and, accordingly, the indices Nikkei and MSCI Asia Pacific. As a result, it fell against all G-10 currencies and lost more than 240 points against the US dollar.
At the end of the five-day period, the traditional correction followed, and the pair froze at 112.35;

- Cryptocurrencies. We warned that in the event of any negative news, the ascending trend of bitcoin could very quickly turn from bullish into bearish, leading the pair to June lows. It was said multiple times that in fact all this news is only a virtual excuse, using which large speculators start moving virtual currencies up or down. How, for example, could the theft from the Swiss platform Bancor "some" $23.5 million ($13.5 million according to other sources) affect the sinking of the whole market? No way it could, but as a result, bitcoin collapsed by almost 11%, dragging along all the main altcoins as well.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. Oscillators on both H4 and D1 are in complete disarray as to the future of this pair - about a third of them are green, one third are red and one third are neutral gray. As for analysts, 80% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, believe that the pair will continue its movement to the horizon 1.1500. Nearest supports are at the levels of 1.1625, 1.1590 and 1.1550.
The upcoming meeting of the presidents of the United States and Russia on Monday, July 16 may strengthen the dollar. Experts do not expect any significant breakthrough from this meeting, but if both leaders express certain optimism on its results, this can play into the hands of the American currency.
An alternative point of view is represented by only 20% of analysts. In their opinion, the pair can once again test the level of 1.1790 and, if successful, rise to resistance 1.1830;

- GBP / USD. The resignation of the two main Brexit negotiators means that British Prime Minister Teresa May chose a soft option for her country to leave the EU. And if she keeps her post, this can strengthen the position of the pound in the future. However, right now the market is negative and most analysts (70%) predict the continuation of the fall of the pair GBP/USD first to the level of 1.3100, and then another 50 points lower.
10% of oscillators agree with this forecast, indicating that the pair is overbought, as well as graphical analysis on D1. At the same time, the latter points out that the pair can move in the side corridor in the range 1.3 190-1.3285 for a while;

- Also, 70% of experts expect strengthening of the dollar to the Japanese yen as well. In their opinion, the pair USD/JPY will seek to reach the highs of last December in the zone of 113.50. The next goal for it is the last November high. - 114.75.
The graphical analysis on H4 also agrees with this development of events. But on D1, it draws an opposite picture - the fall into the zone 110.25-111.15, and then even lower - to support 109.35.
It should be noted that even now a number of analysts are calling for being very cautious with the dollar, as this currency, according to their forecasts, has already approached the overbought state;

- Cryptocurrencies. We listed the factors that could positively affect the growth of the pair BTC / USD, in the previous forecast. Now, a couple of words about the negative side.
In fact, it was quite simple to predict the drop of bitcoin last week - it is enough to connect the points A, B, C and D on the chart to see the attenuation of the rising trend. Now the capitalization of the market is again near the 2018 lows and is about $240 billion. If such drying continues, according to some experts, the process can acquire the character of a collapse. As a result, the bitcoin will be around $3000, and the total market capitalization will not exceed half of the current market capitalization.
Meanwhile, the pair BTC/USD is trading roughly midway between the June lows ($5,790) and the July highs ($6,830) and, if nothing extraordinary happens, it will likely stay in this corridor for a few more weeks.

Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 23-27, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. Recall that in the opinion of 80% of experts who were supported by graphical analysis on D 1, the pair was supposed to continue its descent to the horizon 1.1500. An alternative point of view was presented by only 20% of analysts who expected that it could once again test the level of 1.1790. However, adjustments to all these forecasts have been traditionally made by the summer and vacation season. As a result, the pair, as if tired of lying on the beach, could only lazily rise to the level of 1.1745, and then descend to the level of 1.1574. As for the end of the week, after Donald Trump criticized the Fed policy and the strong dollar, the euro won back the losses, and the pair returned to the upper half of the summer side channel, having stopped at 1.1720;

- The negative mood of the market in relation to the pair GBP/USD was supported by the majority of analysts (70%), who expected the continuation of its fall first to the level of 1.3100, and then another 50 points lower. This forecast turned out to be quite accurate: the pair reached the horizon of 1.3100 by the middle of the week, then it groped for the bottom in the support zone for the two-month downtrend channel - 1.2955, fought back and completed the five-day period near its central line at 1.3131;

- USD/JPY. Here, too, most experts (70%) expected the dollar to strengthen and the pair to seek to reach the last year's highs in zone 113.50. In the first half of the week, it was really soaring 80 points. However, the correction in the US stock market caused a decline in its quotes, the pair turned around and fell to the level of 111.40by the end of the week session;

- Cryptocurrencies. Two weeks ago, we listed some of the reasons that could lead to the bitcoin growth, and then assumed that the BTC/USD would hold in the range of $ 5,790-6830 for some time. But only if nothing extraordinary happens.
As it always happens with crypto-currencies, it happened - the major financial players announced their desire to enter this market. One of them was the investment giant BlackRock, the asset manager of 6.3 trillion dollars. Another locomotive was the company MasterCard, which registered a patent in the field of operations with bitcoin. All this strongly inspired the market, as a result of which the rate of this digital currency increased by about $1350 (21%), reaching $7.585.
Following the bitcoin, the main altcoins also moved up, but their growth, unlike the leader's, was short-lived, and by the end of the week the bears managed to restore their positions, if not completely, at least partially. For example, the pair XRP/USD, starting at $0.43, quickly rose to $0.52, but then as quickly fell to $0.45 per coin.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The ECB's interest rate decision and the press conference of its head Mario Draghi are expected on Thursday July 26. But neither of these are expected to cause any special surprise to the market. More serious concern for the euro is caused by the visit of the European Commission officials to Washington, where they should discuss sanctions and counter-sanctions in the trade war between the EU and the United States with President Trump. The aggravation of the situation may again upset the pair, which is why 60% of analysts are waiting for its return to the level of 1.1575, and in case of its breakdown - to the June-July low at 1.1500.
15% of oscillators that signal the pair is overbought and the graphical analysis agree. With this scenario. However, on H4, graphical analysis indicates that before it falls, the pair can still rise to resistance 1.1790.The next resistance level is 1.1850;

- Macroeconomic data from the British Isles, as well as the situation with Brexit, do not inspire optimism, which also affects the analysts' forecasts. 65% of them, supported by graphical analysis on D1, are waiting for the continuation of the downtrend for the pair GBP/USD. Oscillators on D1 are also Painted in red, indicating it is overbought. Support levels are 1.2955 and 1.2830.
The remaining 35% of experts, together with the graphical analysis on H4, expect a growth of the pair, although small. The pound can also be supported by the UK GDP data, which will be released on Friday 27 July. It is expected that the GDP will grow by 2% compared to the previous quarter. Target levels for the pair are1.3190, 1.3245 and 1.3270;

- USD/JPY. Here a slight advantage is on the side of the bulls, if we talk of experts - they are 50%.45% side with the bears and 5% abstained. {0Graphical analysis on H4 and 80% of oscillators on D1 are for the growth of the pair as well. The nearest targets are 112.20 and 112.65, then 113.15 and 114.00.
An alternative point of view, apart from 45% of experts, is supported by graphical analysis on D 1 and most oscillators on H4. The support levels are 110.75, 110.30 and 109.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. If last week the crypto market capitalization was close to the 2018 lows and amounted to about $240 billion, by Wednesday July 18 it was close to $300 billion. But more importantly, the share of buyers at that moment increased to 27%. The last time this happened was on April 8 this year.
However, the increase in volumes occurred too sharply - the first jump lasted only 20 minutes. And even though the bears suffered very significant losses - many short positions closed on stop-losses with significant losses, there is still no confidence in the change in the main trend for an increasing one for the BTC/USD.
By the end of Friday July 20, the pair continues to hold within a strong support/resistance zone of 7,270-7,730, which can be called Pivot Point of spring-summer 2018. It is possible that, despite being overbought, it will still attempt to break through its upper limit. Although, experts believe its decline to support 6,830 to be more likely.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin

 

[Mark NordFX]

Forex Forecast and Cryptocurrencies Forecast for July 30 - August 03, 2018​

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- EUR/USD. The past seven days, like the previous one and a half months, did not bring any significant events, and the market is in a lazy-holiday mood because of that. The pair's volatility is 130 points, and the maximum deviation from the Pivot Point of the medium-range lateral channel (1.1660) is even less - only 90 points, after which the pair returns to the central zone. So it happened this time as well - at the end of the trading session, it froze at 1.1658;

- the GBP/USD pair also behaved weakly, gradually consolidating near the horizon of 1.3100. The range of British currency fluctuations was not much higher than that of the euro and amounted to only about 145 points. The pair finished the week at the level of 1.3102;

- USD/JPY. This pair was painstakingly drawing the head-and-shoulders figure for the whole month of July, although to some, it might be more like a cowboy hat. Last week was devoted to the right field of this hat, which means a sideways trend within the boundaries of 110.58-111.53. As for the end of the week, the pair met it in the middle of the channel at around 111.00;

- Cryptocurrencies. One of the development variants last week provided for a bitcoin attempt to break through the level of $8,000. And despite being overbought, it did it. The main growth driver was the expectation that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would still allow the Winklevoss brothers to launch Bitcoin ETF. The main trading volumes were traded at Japanese and South Korean crypto-exchanges.
But as soon as the BTC/USD approached the mark of $ 8,500, it became known that the SEC rejected the application of the brothers once again. As a result, bitcoin collapsed below the $8,000 horizon once again, losing about $630. However, the fall did not last long, and the pair once again broke through the eight-thousand level on Friday evening and reached the height of $8,275.
As for the main altcoins: etherium, ripple, litecoin, etc., they showed an average growth of 6-7%, following the bitcoin.



As for the forecast for the coming week, summarizing the opinions of a number of analysts, as well as forecasts made on the basis of a variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

- EUR/USD. The next week will be filled with events, which at another time could initiate quite strong movements in the market. However, at the present moment, surprises should not be expected either from the data on the GDP of the Eurozone, or from the values of the consumer price index, which will be announced on Tuesday July 31.
If we look at other developments concerning the euro/dollar pair, one can note the decision of the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate and the Fed's subsequent comment on Wednesday, August 1, as well as the publication of data on the US labor market on Friday, August 3. But here, most likely, there will be only a small short-term increase in volatility.
As for the oscillators, their indications on D 1 were divided into almost equal parts - one third are for the growth of the pair, one third are for its fall and one third are for the sideways trend. But as for the experts, the overwhelming majority of them (70%) still tends to see the pair reduce to the lower boundary of the medium-term side channel 1.1505-1.1850. However, it is possible that the pair will stay within the two-week zone 1.1575-1.1750 for some time, and only then it will go down. It is this scenario that is drawn by the graphical analysis on D1.
This time only 30% of analysts voted for the growth of the pair to the upper border of the channel 1.1850;

- The future of the British pound is not encouraging, even despite the possible increase by the Bank of England interest rate from 0.50% to 0.75%, which will be known on Thursday August 2. 65% of experts believe that the GBP/USD pair will continue its decline - first to the level of 1.3000-1.3070, and then to support 1.2955. The ultimate goal is the 2017 summer lows in the zone 1.2800.
An alternative point of view is represented by 35% of analysts who believe that the pair has reached the local bottom and will now return to the marks around 1.3200-1.3300. In their opinion, its rise during August to a height of 1.3450 is possible. 15% of oscillators side with the bulls as well, giving signals the pair is oversold;

- USD/JPY. Here, the experts who support the strengthening of the dollar and the growth of the pair, at least, to the zone of 111.75-112.20. are preponderant (60%) The graphical analysis on H4 fully agrees with this.
The remaining 40% place their hopes to Tuesday, July 31. On this day, the Bank of Japan is likely to leave Interest rate unchanged at -0.1%, but the comments of the leadership of this regulator have a chance to support the yen. But this will happen only if there are at least hints of a change in monetary policy and an increase in the interest rate to positive values. In this case, the support is at levels 110.60, 110.30 and 109.75;

- Cryptocurrencies. Traders, investors and miners have been looking forward to the bitcoin graph for the past few weeks. Since June 28, the rate of this currency has grown by 42%, and the total capitalization of the cryptomarket has exceeded 300 billion dollars. After the bitcoin reached the height of $8,500, there were quite a lot of chances that a $10,000 mark would be conquered. Moreover, many factors contribute to this. We list only a few of them:
- the first is the growth of political risks and, as a consequence, a decrease in the demand for "classical" assets and a decline in trading volumes in traditional markets. It is also possible to add instability in a number of countries, thanks to which crypto-currencies become a tool for saving the capital;
- the second factor is the emergence of new technological solutions for attracting large institutional investors at a number of crypto-exchanges;
- the third is more active recognition of cryptocurrencies at the state level, for example, in South Korea or in Venezuela. According to the statement of the president of this country, the Venezuelan currency bolivar will soon be tied to the national cryptocurrency Petro;
- the fourth one is the launch of a platform for the creation of crypto-exchanges;
- the fifth is statements of high state officials and other VIP-persons, like former Assistant to US President Steve Bannon, about their investments in bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Experts believe that in case of growth of the pair BTC/USD above $10,000, there will be even more of those wishing to invest in bitcoin. As a result, there are more and more forecasts saying that the year-old rally may repeat, and bitcoin can rise well above $ 20,000 by the end of the year.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#eurusd #gbpusd #usdjpy #usdchf #forex #forex_example #signals #forex #cryptocurrencies #bitcoin