Weekly Market Analysis by ZitaPlus

[ZitaPlus]

Weekly Analysis by ZitaPlus (3-7 Feb 2025)​

Gold Hits $2,800, USD Strengthens on Fed News​

The U.S. dollar index rebounded, supported by solid GDP growth, the Fed’s hawkish stance, and Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.

EUR/USD fell on ECB rate cut expectations, GBP/USD saw modest losses ahead of a possible BoE cut, while the Japanese yen strengthened to 154 per dollar on BoJ rate hike bets.

Gold surged to $2,800, hitting an all-time high amid tariff concerns and central bank easing. Silver reached seven-week highs as safe-haven demand grew. The Silver Institute projects a fifth consecutive market deficit in 2025, driven by strong industrial demand.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dipped slightly, while Chinese and Japanese bond yields rose, and Eurozone yields declined.

Initial Jobless Claims​

Initial jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 207,000 for the week ending January 25, well below the 220,000 forecast. Continuing claims dropped by 42,000 to 1,858,000, reinforcing the Fed’s view of a resilient labor market, allowing rates to remain restrictive.

China Manufacturing PMI​

China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in January 2025, missing expectations and dropping from December’s 50.1. This marks the first contraction since September and the sharpest decline in five months, driven by weaker factory activity before the Lunar New Year.

US New Home Sales (Dec)​

New single-family home sales rose 3.6% to 698,000 in December 2024, the highest since September and above the 670,000 forecast. This increase came despite rising mortgage rates amid inflation concerns and the Fed’s hawkish stance.

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Dec)​

Durable goods orders fell 2.2% to $276.1 billion in December 2024, following a revised 2% drop in November, far below the expected 0.6% increase. The decline was mainly due to a 7.4% drop in transportation equipment, with nondefense aircraft and parts plunging 45.7%, likely due to lower Boeing orders.

CB Consumer Confidence (Jan)​

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dropped by 5.4 points in January, reaching 104.1 (1985=100). The December figure was revised upward by 4.8 points to 109.5, though it still marked a decrease of 3.3 points compared to the previous month.

BoC Interest Rate Decision​

The Bank of Canada cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3%, as expected, bringing total reductions to 200 basis points since June 2024. It also ended quantitative tightening and will resume asset purchases in March to support liquidity.

The Governing Council noted CPI inflation has aligned with the 2% target and is expected to remain stable, though US tariffs could challenge Canada’s recovery. Despite this, GDP is projected to grow 1.8% over the next two years, following an expected 1.3% expansion in 2024.

Fed Interest Rate Decision​

The Fed kept the federal funds rate at 4.25%-4.5%, pausing after three consecutive cuts in 2024 totaling 100 basis points. Chair Powell signaled no urgency to cut further, awaiting more inflation progress.

Policymakers noted solid economic growth, a strong labor market, and persistently elevated inflation. The Fed removed its reference to progress toward the 2% target and emphasized uncertainty in the economic outlook, closely monitoring risks to its dual mandate.

German GDP (Q4)​

The German economy shrank by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, following a 0.1% growth in the third quarter, according to preliminary data released by Destatis on Thursday. This decline was worse than the market's expectation of a 0.1% drop. On an annual basis, the GDP contracted by 0.2% in Q4, an improvement from the 0.3% decline recorded in Q3, but still below the anticipated flat growth.

EU Deposit Facility Rate (Jan)​

As expected, the European Central Bank (ECB) lowered interest rates by 25 basis points during its January 2025 meeting, marking the fifth rate cut since the easing cycle began in June 2024. This reduction brings the key deposit rate to 2.75%, its lowest level since early 2023.

U.S. GDP (Q4)​

The US economy expanded at an annualized 2.3% in Q4 2024, the slowest in three quarters, down from 3.1% in Q3 and below the 2.6% forecast. Growth was driven by strong personal consumption, which rose 4.2%—the highest since Q1 2023. Goods spending increased by 6.6% and services by 3.1%.

Fixed investment contracted for the first time since Q1 2023, declining 0.6%, mainly due to lower equipment (-7.8%) and structures (-1.1%) spending. Intellectual property investment grew 2.6%, while residential investment rebounded by 5.3%. Private inventories dragged growth by 0.93 percentage points. Exports and imports both fell by 0.8%, keeping net trade's impact neutral. Government spending slowed to 2.5% from 5.1%. For 2024, the US economy grew by 2.8%.

German CPI (MoM) (Jan)​

Germany’s annual inflation dropped to 2.3% in January, down from 2.6% in December and below expectations. Food inflation slowed to 0.8% (from 2.0%), while services rose at a slightly slower pace (4.0% vs. 4.1%). Energy costs fell 1.6%, matching December’s decline. Core inflation eased to 2.9%, a three-month low. Monthly consumer prices fell 0.2%, missing the expected 0.1% increase.

US Core PCE Inflation (Dec 2024)​

The US PCE price index rose 0.3% in December, the largest gain in eight months, while core PCE increased 0.2%. Year-over-year, headline PCE inflation climbed to 2.6% (from 2.4%), marking a third straight rise, while core PCE held steady at 2.8%, in line with forecasts.

Currencies​

The U.S. dollar index rebounded from last week’s low, set to end the week higher. Strong GDP growth, despite missing expectations, and the Fed’s hawkish stance supported the dollar. Trump’s announcement of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada added to its strength.

EUR/USD closed the week lower as expectations of additional ECB rate cuts weighed on the euro. The ECB lowered its deposit rate to 2.75% and signaled possible further cuts amid economic uncertainty. Eurozone GDP stagnated in Q4, missing the expected 0.1% growth.

The British pound posted modest losses against the dollar, pressured by its strength and expectations of a 25 basis point Bank of England rate cut next week. Investors remain cautious ahead of key economic data releases.

The Japanese yen strengthened to 154 per dollar, driven by rising expectations of further Bank of Japan rate hikes. BOJ Deputy Governor Himino suggested more hikes could come if economic growth and inflation remain on track. Tokyo’s core inflation hit an 11-month high of 2.5% in January, while retail sales, industrial production, and employment data surpassed forecasts.

The Canadian dollar weakened following the Bank of Canada’s 25 basis point rate cut to 3.0% and the end of its quantitative tightening program. The BoC plans to restart asset purchases in March, but concerns over U.S. tariffs remain a key risk. The Fed’s hawkish stance and the widening rate gap are adding pressure on the loonie.

Commodities​

Gold surged toward $2,800 per ounce, hitting an all-time high as investors sought safe-haven assets amid Trump’s renewed tariff threats and trade war fears. The rally was fueled by easing monetary policies, with the ECB, BoC, and Riksbank cutting rates, while the PBoC and RBI signaled looser policies. US rates remained steady, reinforcing expectations of two cuts this year. Gold is set for its biggest monthly gain since March 2024.

Silver jumped to a seven-week high as Trump reaffirmed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, boosting safe-haven demand. The Silver Institute projected a fifth consecutive market deficit in 2025, driven by strong industrial demand for solar panels, EVs, and electronics, despite rising supply from China, Canada, and Chile.

Post automatically merged: Feb 18, 2025

Weekly Analysis by ZitaPlus (10-14 Feb 2025)​

Weak Jobs Data Fuels Rate Cut Speculation​

The dollar index fell after a weak jobs report, raising speculation about Fed rate cuts.

Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirmed support for a strong dollar and denied pressure from Trump. The euro rose above $1.04 with trade tensions, while the ECB cut rates and may do so again in March. The pound gained despite a 25bps BoE rate cut, with markets expecting 94bps of cuts in 2025.

Gold hit a record high, marking its sixth straight weekly gain, driven by central bank purchases. Silver rose to $32.50 per ounce, boosted by a weaker dollar and strong industrial demand. The Silver Institute projects a fifth consecutive year of market deficits in 2025.

The US 10-year Treasury yield fell to 4.43%, while the 2-year held at 4.23%. In the UK, the 10-year bond yield dropped to 4.46% after the BoE’s rate cut.

Initial Jobless Claims​

US jobless claims fell by 16,000 to 207,000 for the week ending January 25, marking the lowest level in months and signaling a resilient labor market despite economic concerns.

Eurozone CPI (YoY) (Jan)​

Inflation in the Euro Area rose to 2.5% in January, up from 2.4% in December, exceeding expectations. Energy prices surged 1.8% (vs. 0.1% in December), while services inflation eased to 3.9% (from 4.0%). Core inflation remained at 2.7% for the fifth month, slightly above forecasts but at its lowest since early 2022.

US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jan)​

The PMI was revised up to 51.2 from 50.1, improving from 49.4 in December. New business orders rose for the first time since June, while production increased after six months of decline. Input costs surged, and selling prices saw their fastest rise since March 2024. Business confidence hit a 34-month high, marking its biggest monthly gain since November 2020.

US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)​

The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January, up from 49.2 in December, marking the first expansion in the sector after 26 months of contraction. New orders increased to 55.1 (from 52.1), while production (52.5 vs. 49.9) and employment (50.3 vs. 45.4) improved. Supplier deliveries slowed slightly, inventories fell to 45.9 (from 48.4), and price pressures intensified to 54.9 (from 52.5). Rising costs were noted in steel, aluminum, copper, food, and natural gas, while plastic resins and diesel fuel prices declined.

JOLTS Job Openings (Dec)​

US job openings fell by 556,000 to 7.6 million in December, below the 8.0 million forecast, signaling a labor market slowdown. Declines were seen in professional/business services (-225K), healthcare/social assistance (-180K), and finance/insurance (-136K), while openings rose in arts/entertainment (+65K). The South and West saw the largest regional drops (-286K and -250K, respectively). Meanwhile, hires increased by 89,000 to 5.5 million, and separations rose by 38,000 to 5.3 million.

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Jan)​

Private businesses added 183,000 jobs in January, surpassing December’s revised 176,000 and beating the 150,000 forecast. Growth was driven by consumer-facing sectors, while business services and manufacturing lagged. The service sector added 190K jobs, led by trade/transportation/utilities (56K) and leisure/hospitality (54K), while the goods sector lost 6K jobs, mainly due to manufacturing (-13K). Annual pay growth was 4.7% for those staying in jobs and 6.8% for job changers.

US S&P Global Services PMI (Jan)​

The Services PMI fell to 52.9 in January from 56.8 in December, marking the slowest expansion since April. Despite the sharp slowdown, output continued growing, supported by new orders, while job creation accelerated to its fastest pace since 2022. Rising labor, material, and utility costs pushed input inflation to a three-month high, leading firms to take a cautious outlook for the next 18 months.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Jan)​

The ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.8 from 54, reflecting slower growth in business activity (54.5 vs. 58) and new orders (51.3 vs. 54.4). Inventories contracted for the third month (47.5 vs. 49.4), but employment (52.3 vs. 51.3) and new export orders (52 vs. 50.1) improved. Price pressures eased (60.4 vs. 64.4), while businesses cited poor weather and concerns over potential US tariff actions as key challenges.

BoE Interest Rate Decision (Feb)​

The Bank of England cut its benchmark rate by 25bps to 4.5%, marking its third reduction since August. Contrary to forecasts of an 8-to-1 vote, all nine MPC members supported the cut, with two favoring a larger 50bps reduction. The Bank signaled a gradual easing path but lowered its growth forecast, acknowledging weak economic performance since November.

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Jan)​

In January 2025, average hourly earnings rose by 0.5% (17 cents) to $35.87, exceeding the expected 0.3% increase. Earnings for private-sector production and nonsupervisory workers also grew 0.5% to $30.84. Over the past year, wages have increased by 4.1%.

Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)​

The US added 143K jobs in January, well below December’s revised 307K and the expected 170K. Job gains were led by health care, retail, and social assistance. Revisions added 100K jobs to November and December totals, with November adjusted to 261K and December to 307K.

Unemployment Rate (Jan)​

The unemployment rate fell to 4.0%, the lowest since May, slightly beating forecasts of 4.1%. The number of unemployed dropped by 37K to 6.849 million. Labor force participation rose to 62.6%, and the employment-population ratio increased to 60.1%.

Currencies​

The dollar index weakened after a disappointing jobs report, raising expectations of two 25bps Fed rate cuts this year. Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirmed support for a strong dollar, while reduced global trade war concerns contributed to the index’s decline. The euro rose above $1.04 USD, driven by Trump’s tariffs and China’s retaliation. The ECB cut rates and hinted at further easing in March, with investors now expecting the deposit rate to fall to 1.87% by December.

The Canadian dollar strengthened as weak economic data reinforced expectations for a dovish Bank of Canada. The Ivey PMI fell to 47.1, the lowest since December 2020, while the BoC’s plans to resume asset purchases in March further supported this outlook. Earlier gains came from optimism that US-Canada trade talks could prevent 25% tariffs. The Japanese yen hit a two-month high past 151 per dollar, fueled by expectations of further BOJ rate hikes. BOJ member Naoki Tamura suggested a 1% policy rate by late 2025, while strong household spending and rising real wages added to speculation of another 5% wage increase in the upcoming spring negotiations.

The British pound ended higher despite the BoE’s 25bps rate cut, as two policymakers pushed for a 50bps cut. The central bank maintained a cautious stance while acknowledging progress on inflation. Traders now expect 94bps of cuts in 2025, implying three more reductions this year.

Commodities​

Gold hit a new all-time high, set for its sixth weekly gain. Market volatility increased after Trump imposed 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, China retaliated on US energy products, and concerns rose over potential US involvement in Gaza. Rate cuts from the ECB, BoE, BoC, and expected easing from the Fed and RBI further supported gold.

Silver rose to $32.50, marking its fifth gain in six weeks, helped by a weaker dollar and easing trade tensions. Trump and Xi Jinping's planned talks raised hopes of tariff relief. Markets expect two 25bps Fed cuts, while the Silver Institute projects a fifth year of market deficits in 2025, driven by industrial demand and retail investment.

 

[ZitaPlus]

Weekly Analysis by ZitaPlus (24-28 Feb 2025)​

RBA and RBNZ Cut Rates, Inflation Remains a Concern
The dollar index fell as weak US business sentiment and stagnant PMI data fueled speculation on Fed rate cuts, while Trump's limited tariffs eased concerns.

1. The euro hovered below $1.05 with weak Eurozone PMI data and Germany's upcoming election.
2. Gold closed at $2,940, near record highs, for the eighth weekly gain, driven by rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks. Swiss gold exports surged, and silver remained near four-month highs as safe-haven demand increased.
3. US 2-year Treasury yields declined to 4.20%, while 10-year yields ended the week lower at 4.4%.

RBA Interest Rate Decision (Feb)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut its cash rate by 25bps to 4.1% in February, marking the first cut since November 2020. Slowing inflation and concerns over weak private demand prompted the move, though the RBA remains cautious about further easing. Global risks persist, and the board highlighted uncertainty in household spending recovery. The interest rate on Exchange Settlement balances was also reduced by 25bps to 4.0%.

RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut its official cash rate (OCR) by 50bps to 3.75%, the lowest since 2022, as economic growth slowed and inflation eased to 2.2% in Q4 2024. New Zealand’s economy has contracted for five consecutive quarters, and wage growth continues to decline, showing weaker labor demand.

UK CPI (YoY) (Jan)
The UK’s inflation rate rose to 3% in January 2025, up from 2.5% in December, surpassing expectations. Transport costs jumped (1.7% from -0.6%) due to higher airfares and fuel prices. Food prices also increased (3.3% from 2.5%), along with recreation, culture (3.8% from 3.4%), and education (7.5% from 5%) due to a 20% VAT on private school fees. Annual core inflation rose to 3.7% from 3.2%, while monthly CPI fell 0.1%, less than the expected 0.3% drop.

Initial Jobless Claims
US initial jobless claims rose by 5,000 to 219,000 for the week ending February 15th, above expectations of 215,000. Continuing claims stood at 1,869,000, aligning with forecasts. The four-week average fell by 1,000 to 215,250, indicating a still-tight labor market. Federal workers affected by layoffs from the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) file separately under the UCFE program.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Feb)
The index fell to 18.1 in February from 44.3 in January, below the forecast of 20, signaling slower growth. New orders (21.9 vs. 42.9), shipments (26.3 vs. 41), unfilled orders (1.4 vs. 24), and inventories (-0.4 vs. 11.7) all declined. Employment softened (5.3 vs. 11.9), and the workweek shortened (2.9 vs. 20.5). Prices paid (40.5 vs. 31.9) and prices received (32.9 vs. 29.7) increased. Growth expectations over the next six months fell to 27.8 from 46.3.

S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)
The index dropped to 49.7 in February from 52.9 in January, marking the first contraction in over two years. Weak new orders and political uncertainty weighed on business sentiment, which hit a five-month low. Firms cut staff after two months of hiring. Input costs rose to a four-month high due to tariffs, food, and wage increases, but competitive pressures forced firms to lower selling prices.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
The index rose to 51.6 in February from 51.2 in January, beating expectations of 51.5 and reaching its highest level since June 2024. Factory output grew for the second month, but new order growth slowed, and employment gains stalled. Supplier delivery times lengthened for a fifth straight month but at a slower pace, indicating ongoing but easing supply chain pressures.

Currencies
The dollar index fell for the third straight week, nearing early December levels as US business sentiment weakened. Flash PMI data showed stagnant activity, with a drop in services offsetting a slight manufacturing rebound. Trump's limited tariffs eased inflation concerns, giving the Fed potential room for cuts, but FOMC minutes signaled a cautious stance.

The euro traded just below $1.05 ahead of Germany's election and weak Eurozone PMI data (50.2 vs. 50.5 expected). Polls suggest the CDU/CSU bloc will win but need coalition partners. The US signaled reduced support for Ukraine while negotiating with Russia. Trump’s planned 25% tariffs on key imports raised concerns for European carmakers.

The British pound strengthened to $1.265, its highest since December 17, after outperforming inflation data. February PMI showed business stagnation and rising job losses, fueling stagflation fears. Retail sales beat expectations, and the UK posted a £15.4 billion budget surplus, though below forecasts. Consumer confidence remained negative but improved.

The Japanese yen ended the week higher despite strong inflation data reinforcing BOJ tightening expectations. Core inflation hit 3.2% in January (vs. 3.1% forecast), and headline inflation rose to 4%, a two-year high. BOJ Governor Ueda reaffirmed readiness to act against market fluctuations, while board member Takata hinted at further policy adjustments.

Commodities
Gold ended the week around $2,940 per ounce, near its record high of $2,950, marking its eighth weekly gain. Investors turned to trusted metals with ongoing global volatility, especially after Trump’s announcement of new tariffs on lumber, automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, adding to existing duties on Chinese imports, steel, and aluminum. Geopolitical risks also rose as reports suggested Trump might reconsider US support for Ukraine in talks with Russia. Meanwhile, Swiss gold exports increased year-over-year, with shipments to the US reaching a 13-year high.

Silver gained, staying near four-month highs. Market unease grew after Trump labeled Ukrainian President Zelenskiy a dictator on peace talks with Russia. Fed officials signaled they want more inflation progress before considering rate cuts, citing risks from Trump's tariff policies.

 

[ZitaPlus]

Weekly Analysis by ZitaPlus (3-7 March 2025)​

Gold Sees First Loss in Nine Weeks​

The dollar surged 1% on Thursday after Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and the EU, and a 10% tariff on China starting March 4.

1. The euro fell below $1.04, while the yen weakened but remained on track for a 4% monthly gain.
2. Gold is set for its first weekly loss in nine weeks, despite a monthly gain, as over 600 tons were moved to New York vaults. Silver dropped 4% this week, and US silver coin sales fell 27% year-over-year.
3. The US 10-year Treasury yield ended at 4.25%, with the 2-year yield at 4.05%. European, UK and Japanese 10-year yields also declined, with Japan’s falling to 1.37%, ending a seven-week streak of gains.

EU CPI (Jan)
Euro Area inflation hit 2.5% in January 2025, the highest since July 2024, mainly due to energy costs rising 1.9% (from 0.1% in Dec). Inflation remained steady for non-energy goods (0.5%), while it slowed in services (3.9% from 4.0%) and food, alcohol, and tobacco (2.3% from 2.6%). Core inflation held at 2.7% for the fifth month, its lowest since early 2022. Monthly consumer prices fell 0.3%, following a 0.4% rise in Dec.

German GDP (Q4)
Germany's economy shrank 0.2% QoQ in Q4 2024, following 0.1% growth in Q3, mainly due to weaker net trade. Exports fell 2.2% (Q3: -1.9%), while imports rose 0.5% (Q3: +0.6%). Household consumption slowed (0.1% from 0.2%), and government spending grew 0.4%, down from 1.5% in Q3. Fixed investments rebounded 0.4% (Q3: -0.5%), driven by construction. Most industries declined, especially agriculture (-1%) and manufacturing (-0.6%). YoY, GDP fell 0.2%, marking six consecutive quarters of contraction.

US CB Consumer Confidence (Feb)
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index dropped 7.0 points to 98.3, while the Present Situation Index fell 3.4 points to 136.5.

US New Home Sales (Jan)
US new home sales fell 10.5% MoM to 657,000, missing the 680,000 forecast and hitting a three-month low. High mortgage rates and severe weather dampened demand. Sales dropped in the South (-14.8% to 392,000), Midwest (-16.7% to 70,000), and Northeast (-20.0% to 28,000), while the West rose 7.7% to 167,000. Median home price: $446,300, average: $510,000. Inventory stood at 494,000 (9.0 months' supply).

US Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Jan)
Durable Goods Orders in the United States for January showed a 3.1% month-on-month increase, surpassing the previous month's decline of -1.8% and exceeding the forecasted 2%.

US GDP (QoQ) (Q4)
The US economy grew 2.3% in Q4 2024, the slowest in three quarters (Q3: 3.1%), aligning with estimates. Personal consumption (4.2%) drove growth, with goods spending up 6.1% and services 3.3%. Exports declined -0.5% (vs. -0.8% est.), and imports fell -1.2% (vs. -0.8%), contributing 0.12 pp to growth. Government spending rose 2.9% (vs. 2.5%). Private inventories cut 0.81 pp from GDP (vs. -0.93 pp est.). Fixed investment fell -1.4% (vs. -0.6%), driven by equipment investment decline (-9% vs. -7.8%) and stagnation in intellectual property investment (0% vs. 2.6%). Residential investment outperformed expectations (5.4% vs. 5.3%). The US economy expanded 2.8% in 2024.

Initial Jobless Claims
The US initial jobless claims rose 22,000 to 242,000 in the third week of February, the largest increase in over two months, exceeding the 221,000 forecast. Continuing claims fell 5,000 to 1,862,000 (est. 1,870,000), signaling a labor market shift. Claims by federal employees laid off by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) are processed separately under the UCFE program, which recorded 614 initial claims.

German CPI (Feb)
Germany’s inflation is projected at 2.3% YoY in February 2025, with consumer prices up 0.4% MoM. The Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) rose 2.8% YoY and 0.6% MoM. Core inflation (excluding food and energy) is estimated at 2.6%.

Core PCE Price Index (Jan)
In January, the PCE price index increased by 0.3% from the previous month. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also rose by 0.3%. Compared to January of the previous year, the PCE price index increased by 2.5%, and excluding food and energy, it went up by 2.6%.

Currencies
The dollar index ended the week higher, extending a two-day rally as Trump's 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and 10% on China take effect March 4. Despite this, weak data kept the dollar down for the month, with Q4 GDP slowing to 2.3% (Q3: 3.1%) and jobless claims rising 22K to 242K, the highest in two months.

The euro fell below $1.04, its lowest since Feb 12 with Trump's planned 25% tariffs on EU goods and weak inflation data. France’s inflation hit 0.8%, a four-year low, while Germany saw easing pressures. Italy (1.7%) and Spain (3%) met expectations. The ECB is expected to cut rates for the fifth time due to slowing growth.

The yen dropped but remained up 4% in February on BOJ rate hike expectations. Tokyo’s core inflation eased to 2.2% in Feb (Jan: 2.5%) but stayed above the BOJ’s 2% target. Trump's tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China add economic uncertainty, possibly limiting further BOJ hikes.

The pound slipped below $1.27, near a two-month high, as investors weighed US tariffs and BoE signals. Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, 10% on China, hinted at a tariff-free UK trade deal and eyed new EU tariffs. Markets expect BoE cuts of 59 bps in 2025, but Deputy Gov. Ramsden remained cautious about aggressive easing.

Commodities
Gold is set for its first weekly loss in nine weeks, pressured by a stronger US dollar as Trump’s 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and a 10% duty on China take effect March 4. Despite this, gold remains on track for a monthly gain, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and rising ETF investments. Since December, 600+ tons (20M ounces) of gold have moved to NYC vaults ahead of the tariffs (World Gold Council).

Silver ended the week lower, heading for a 4% weekly decline due to demand concerns, strong supply, and profit-taking. A stronger US dollar added pressure after Trump's tariff confirmations. Meanwhile, Hecla Mining’s silver production rose 13% in 2024 to 16.2M ounces, its second-highest on record. On the demand side, US silver coin sales fell 27% YoY in January to 3.5M ounces, the weakest January since 2018.

Equities
US stock indices ended the week lower, with the Nasdaq down 4.5%, while the S&P 500 and the Dow also declined.
Nvidia’s earnings beat expectations, yet its stock dropped 10% by week’s end. Major tech stocks, including Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, also saw substantial losses.

Among the "Magnificent 7" stocks, none managed to end the week in positive territory. However, stocks like Amgen and Starbucks stood out as some of the few that finished the week with gains.

 

[ZitaPlus]

Weekly Analysis By ZitaPlus Research Team (10 - 14 March 2025)​

Job Data Disappoints with Tariff Uncertainties​

The dollar index fell for the fifth straight session, hitting a four-month low of 103.7, as tariff uncertainties and economic concerns weighed on sentiment.

While Trump suspended 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, uncertainty persists. Traders now await the jobs report to assess labor market strength.

The euro surged past $1.085, on track for a 4.6% weekly gain, its best since 2009. The rally was fueled by Germany’s fiscal reforms, a cautious ECB stance, and a weaker dollar amid trade war fears. The ECB cut rates by 25bps and hinted at a less restrictive policy.

The yen strengthened above 148 per dollar, a five-month high, on safe-haven demand driven by global trade tensions. Japanese bond yields rose on BOJ rate hike expectations, with Deputy Gov. Uchida signaling a gradual exit from monetary easing.

The pound climbed above $1.28, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of elevated UK interest rates. Sterling also gained on potential US-UK trade deals avoiding new tariffs and UK plans to boost defense spending, funded by development budget cuts.

Fixed Income
Bond markets saw high volatility. Germany’s debt ceiling increase pushed 10-year bond yields up 20%. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rose 1.5%, while Japan’s 10-year bond yields hit 1.55%, a 15-year high.

EU CPI (Jan)
Eurozone inflation fell to 2.4% in Feb 2025 (Jan: 2.5%), slightly above the 2.3% forecast. Service (3.7% vs. 3.9%) and energy inflation (0.2% vs. 1.9%) eased, while unprocessed food (3.1% vs. 1.4%) and non-energy goods (0.6% vs. 0.5%) rose slightly. Core inflation fell to 2.6%, the lowest since Jan 2022, but still above the 2.5% estimate.

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
The US Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.7 in February 2025, exceeding the 51.6 estimate and January’s 51.2, marking the strongest expansion since June 2022. Growth was partly driven by preemptive purchasing ahead of expected tariff-related price hikes and supply disruptions. Output hit its fastest pace since May 2022, and new orders saw their biggest jump in a year, though job creation slowed. Input cost inflation reached its highest since Nov 2022, and output charge inflation hit a two-year peak, reflecting early supplier price increases.

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
The US Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.7, beating the 51.6 forecast and January’s 51.2, marking the strongest growth since June 2022. Expansion was partly driven by preemptive purchases ahead of tariffs. Output grew at its fastest pace since May 2022, and new orders hit a one-year high, though job creation slowed. Input cost inflation reached a 15-month high, and output charge inflation hit a two-year peak, signaling supplier price hikes in anticipation of tariffs.

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Feb)
Private businesses added 77,000 jobs in February 2025, the smallest gain in seven months, sharply below January’s revised 186,000 and the 140,000 forecast. The service sector added 36,000 jobs, led by leisure and hospitality (+41,000), business services (+27,000), and financial services (+26,000), while trade (-33,000), education and health (-28,000), and information (-14,000) saw losses. The goods sector gained 42,000 jobs, with construction (+26,000) and manufacturing (+18,000) offsetting natural resources and mining losses (-2,000).

S&P Global Services PMI (Feb)
The US Services PMI fell to 51 in February from 52.9 in January but was revised up from the initial 49.7 estimate. Despite the revision, it marked the slowest services growth since Nov 2023. Business activity weakened due to tariff-related uncertainty, leading to a second straight month of declining export demand. New order slowdown prompted job cuts for the first time in three months. Tariff concerns also dampened business confidence, sending sentiment to its lowest since Sept 2024.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb)
The ISM Services PMI unexpectedly rose to 53.5 in February 2025, up from 52.8 in January and exceeding the 52.6 forecast, signaling accelerated growth in the services sector.
Key components expanded for a third straight month—the first time since May 2022—including business activity (54.4 vs. 54.5), new orders (52.2 vs. 51.3), employment (53.9 vs. 52.3), and supplier deliveries (53.4 vs. 53). Inventories (50.6 vs. 47.5) and backlog orders (51.7 vs. 44.8) rebounded, while price pressures increased (62.6 vs. 60.4).
Steve Miller, Chair of ISM, noted that business activity slowed slightly, but gains in other subindexes offset the decline. However, tariff concerns and federal spending cuts continue to weigh on business sentiment.

Deposit Facility Rate (Mar)
European Central Bank reduced interest rates by 25 basis points as expected during its February 2025 meeting, marking the fifth consecutive cut. This adjustment brought the key deposit rate down to 2.5%, the lowest level recorded since February 2023.

Initial Jobless Claims
For the week ending March 1, initial jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 221,000, while the 4-week average edged up to 224,250. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%, with insured unemployment rising by 42,000 to 1,897,000. The 4-week insured unemployment average increased slightly to 1,866,000.

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Feb)
Average hourly earnings in February rose 0.3% (+10 cents) to $35.93, following January’s 0.4% increase and matching forecasts. Production and nonsupervisory workers saw wages rise 0.3% (+9 cents) to $30.89. Over the past year, earnings have increased 4%.

Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
The US economy added 151,000 jobs in February, up from January’s revised 125,000 but below the 160,000 forecast. Gains were led by healthcare, financial services, transportation, and social assistance, while federal employment declined by 10,000.

Unemployment Rate (Feb)
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1% (Jan: 4.0%), slightly above expectations. The number of unemployed increased by 203,000 to 7.05 million, while total employment fell by 588,000 to 163.31 million. The labor force participation rate declined to 62.4%, and the employment-population ratio dropped to 59.9%. The U-6 unemployment rate, which includes part-time and marginally attached workers, rose to 8.0% from 7.5%.

Currencies
The dollar index fell for the fifth straight session, hitting a four-month low of 103.7, its longest losing streak in nearly a year. Tariff uncertainty continues to weigh on sentiment. Trump initially imposed 25% tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods but later exempted autos and suspended all tariffs until April 2. Traders now focus on the jobs report to assess the economy and the impact of DOGE layoffs.

The euro surged past $1.085, its highest since Nov 5, set for a 4.6% weekly gain, its best since March 2009. The rally was driven by Germany’s fiscal reforms, a cautious ECB stance, and a weaker dollar amid trade war fears. Germany’s debt brake revision allows more defense spending and a €500B infrastructure plan. The ECB cut rates by 25bps and hinted at a less restrictive policy, with traders expecting one to two more cuts this year.

The yen rose above 148 per dollar, a five-month high, as safe-haven demand increased with Trump’s tariff shifts. Concerns over the US economy pushed traders toward the yen and Swiss franc. BOJ rate hike expectations also supported the currency. Deputy Gov. Uchida indicated further rate increases, marking the beginning of Japan’s monetary tightening cycle, though bond reductions remain limited.

The pound climbed above $1.28, its highest since Nov 12, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of elevated UK interest rates. Traders lowered BoE rate cut forecasts to 52bps for 2025. Deputy Gov. Ramsden warned that wage pressures could keep inflation high but left room for faster rate cuts if needed. Sterling gained further on Trump’s suggestion of a tariff-free US-UK trade deal, making it less vulnerable to US tariffs. Meanwhile, Germany and the UK boosted defense spending, with Britain funding it through development budget cuts.

Commodities
Gold is set to close the week with slight gains, nearing record highs. Trump temporarily suspended 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods, but Canada's retaliatory tariffs remain, and China’s countermeasures take effect next week. U.S. labor data showed soaring layoffs (highest since 2020) but lower-than-expected jobless claims.

Silver extended its rally, surpassing $32 per ounce in early March, fueled by a weaker dollar and rising safe-haven demand. The U.S. imposed new tariffs on Canada and Mexico, along with a 10% levy on Chinese goods, raising China's total tariff burden to 20%. In retaliation, Canada introduced 25% tariffs on CAD 155B of U.S. imports, while China announced 10%-15% tariffs on select U.S. products starting March 10, alongside new export restrictions targeting U.S. entities.

Equities
U.S. stocks had a rough week, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq down 3% for the third straight week, while the Dow fell 2.8% after a brief rebound. Nvidia plunged 18%, while Amazon, Netflix, and Meta lost 8%. Microsoft, Google, and Apple remained flat.

 

[ZitaPlus]

Weekly Analysis By ZitaPlus Research Team (17- 21 March 2025)​

Trade Tensions Rise, and Japan GDP Surprises
The dollar index remained steady as traders assessed the trade war’s impact.
Consumer confidence hit its lowest since 2022, but sentiment improved as lawmakers neared a government shutdown deal. The focus shifts to next week’s FOMC meeting, where rates are expected to stay put.

The euro rose to $1.09, supported by Germany’s debt overhaul, while Trump threatened a 200% tariff on EU wines over whiskey taxes. The pound fell to $1.29 after the UK economy shrank 0.1% in January. The BoE is expected to keep rates at 4.5% next week. The yen weakened despite hovering near a five-month high, with BOJ rate hike expectations rising as wages boost consumer spending.

Gold hit $3,000 per ounce, gaining 3% for the week, driven by Fed rate cut expectations, trade tensions, and China’s central bank purchases. Silver surged to $33.90, its highest since October, as safe-haven demand rose. Jobless claims fell, signaling a strong labor market despite tariff concerns.
U.S. 10-year and 2-year yields rose to 4.3% and 4%, extending a two-week gain. German 10-year yields stayed flat at 2.88% after last week’s budget-driven rally, while Japan’s 10-year bonds hit 1.58%, their highest since 2008.

Japan GDP (Q4)
Japan’s economy grew 0.6% QoQ in Q4 2024, slightly below the 0.7% estimate but above Q3’s 0.4%. Business investment rose 0.6%, while private consumption stagnated. Exports increased 1.0%, though slower than Q3’s 1.5%, while imports fell 2.1%, marking their first decline since Q1 2024. On an annualized basis, growth accelerated to 2.2% from 1.4% in Q3.

JOLTS Job Openings (Jan)
U.S. job openings rose 232,000 to 7.74M, surpassing the 7.63M forecast. Gains were led by retail (+143K), finance (+77K), and healthcare (+58K), while business services lost 122K. Hiring edged up to 5.39M, while separations increased to 5.25M.

US CPI (Feb)
Inflation eased to 2.8% YoY (Jan: 3%), below the 2.9% forecast. Energy prices dropped 0.2%, with gasoline down 3.1%. Shelter (4.2%) and transportation (6%) inflation slowed, while food inflation ticked up to 2.6%. Core inflation fell to 3.1%, its lowest since April 2021, with both headline and core CPI rising 0.2% MoM.

BoC Interest Rate Decision
The Bank of Canada cut rates by 25bps to 2.75%, bringing total cuts to 225bps since June 2024. While economic growth exceeded expectations, trade tensions with the U.S. dampened confidence. Inflation is projected to rise to 2.5% as tax credits expire, while core inflation is expected to ease with lower shelter costs.

Initial Jobless Claims
U.S. jobless claims fell by 2,000 to 220,000, a three-week low, beating the 225,000 forecast. Continuing claims dropped by 27,000 to 1.87M, defying expectations of a rise to 1.9M. DOGE-related claims fell by 54 to 1,580 but remain elevated.

PPI (Feb)
U.S. PPI remained flat in February. Final demand for goods increased 0.3%, while services declined 0.2%. Over the past year, PPI rose 3.2%.

UK GDP (Jan)
The UK economy contracted 0.1% MoM, missing forecasts of 0.1% growth, following December’s 0.4% expansion. Manufacturing fell 1.1%, led by basic metals (-3.3%) and pharmaceuticals (-3.1%), while mining (-3.3%) and construction (-0.2%) also weakened. Services rose 0.1%, slowing from 0.4% in December. GDP grew 0.2% over the last three months.

German CPI (Feb)
Germany’s inflation held steady at 2.3% YoY, with services inflation easing to 3.8% and energy costs falling to 1.6%. However, food inflation surged to 2.4% (Jan: 0.8%), offsetting declines in other categories. Core inflation dropped to 2.7%, its lowest since Sept 2024. Monthly CPI rebounded 0.4%, while EU-harmonized inflation rose 2.6% YoY, below the 2.8% estimate.

Currencies
The dollar index was flat as traders assessed the trade war’s impact on the U.S. economy. Consumer confidence hit its lowest since 2022, but sentiment improved as lawmakers moved closer to averting a government shutdown. Focus shifts to next week’s FOMC meeting, where rates are expected to hold steady, with markets pricing in two rate cuts this year.

The euro neared $1.09, its highest since November after Germany agreed on a debt overhaul and increased state spending. Incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz secured a deal on borrowing reforms ahead of a parliamentary vote. Trade tensions escalated, with Trump threatening a 200% tariff on EU wines in response to EU whiskey taxes. Investors await Fitch’s credit rating decision on France.

The pound fell to $1.29 after the UK GDP shrank 0.1% in January, missing expectations of 0.1% growth due to weakness in production. The BoE is expected to keep rates at 4.5%, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to announce public spending cuts on March 26. Concerns over U.S. tariffs supported sterling.

The yen weakened but remains near a five-month high, supported by BOJ rate hike expectations. Trump reaffirmed reciprocal tariffs starting April 2, pressuring global trade. Japanese firms agreed to wage hikes for a third year, which is expected to increase inflation and consumer spending, giving the BOJ more flexibility for future hikes.

The Canadian dollar stayed near 1.44 per USD, close to a one-month low, as Canada imposed 25% retaliatory tariffs on $21B of U.S. goods after Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs. The BoC cut rates by 25bps to 2.75%, bringing total cuts to 225bps since June 2024, citing trade-related risks and weak domestic demand. Inflation is projected to rise to 2.5% in March, while core inflation is expected to ease due to slowing shelter costs. Markets anticipate 50bps more cuts this year.

Commodities
Gold hit a record $3,000 per ounce, gaining 3% for the week, as risk aversion and Fed rate cut expectations drove demand. Trump threatened 200% tariffs on EU wines after the EU imposed a 50% tax on U.S. whiskey. Easing inflation in PPI and CPI data gave the Fed room to lower rates, supporting gold. Strong ETF inflows and central bank buying, especially from China, also supported the rally.

Silver climbed to $33.90 per ounce, its highest since with tariff tensions and Fed rate cut bets. Trump’s tariff threats escalated trade disputes, while U.S. Commerce Secretary Lutnick hinted that a recession might be necessary for Trump’s policies. PPI remained flat, CPI rose just 0.2%, and jobless claims fell again, signaling a strong labor market.

Equities
U.S. indices recovered late but still ended the week lower. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 2.5%, while the Dow dropped 3.5%.
Apple led losses, plunging 10%, followed by Google and Meta. Nvidia gained 8%, rebounding after recent struggles, making it one of the few stocks to close higher.

 

[ZitaPlus]

Weekly Analysis By ZitaPlus Research Team (24-28 March 2025)​

Fed Stays Course, ECB & BoE Cautious (24-28 March)
The US dollar index rose toward 104, ending the week higher as the Fed held rates steady but reaffirmed plans for two cuts in 2024. Powell downplayed Trump’s tariffs, citing no urgency for more cuts. Trade tensions and economic uncertainty supported the dollar.
The euro pulled back from a five-month high after Lagarde warned of slower growth and said a 25% US tariff could cut Eurozone growth by 0.3pp. Villeroy hinted at rate cut room, but markets now see only two ECB cuts this year.

The pound fell below $1.30 as the BoE held rates at 4.5% and took a cautious stance. Unemployment held at 4.4%, while wage growth slowed to 5.8%.
The yen weakened to 149 per dollar after Japan’s core inflation eased to 3%, still above forecasts. The BOJ kept rates at 0.5%, while global uncertainty and a stronger dollar pressured the yen.

Gold traded near $3,030, eyeing a third weekly gain, supported by Fed rate cut signals and Middle East tensions. Silver fell over 2% to $33, hit by China growth concerns, though prices stayed near five-month highs due to tight supply and Trump’s tariffs.

US Treasuries slipped, with 2-year yields near 3.94% and 10-year at 4.22%. Japan’s 10-year bond stayed flat after last week’s high, while Germany’s 10-year yield dropped to 2.75%.

US Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
Retail sales rose 0.2% in February, rebounding from a revised 1.2% drop in January, but falling short of the 0.6% forecast. 7 of 13 categories declined, including food services (-1.5%), gasoline (-1%), clothing (-0.6%), and auto dealers (-0.4%). Gains were led by nonstore retailers (+2.4%), health & personal care (+1.7%), and food & beverage (+0.4%). Core retail sales (used in GDP) jumped 1%, reversing a 1% decline and beating the 0.2% forecast.

BoJ Interest Rate Decision
The BoJ held rates at 0.5%, the highest since 2008, matching expectations. Following January’s third rate hike, the bank remains cautious due to global risks, higher U.S. tariffs, and a fragile domestic recovery. Private consumption grew on wage gains, while exports and output stagnated. Inflation remained between 3.0%-3.5%, driven by services, with core CPI expected to rise gradually.

EU CPI (YoY) (Feb)
Eurozone inflation fell to 2.3% in February, down from 2.5% in January.

Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Fed held rates at 4.25%-4.5%, pausing its cut cycle that began in January. It still projects 50bps in cuts for 2025, but GDP growth was revised down to 1.7% (from 2.1%), and to 1.8% for 2026 and 2027. PCE inflation forecasts rose to 2.7% for 2025 and 2.2% for 2026. The jobless rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.4% in 2025. Starting in April, the Fed will slow its balance sheet runoff, cutting the Treasury redemption cap from $25B to $5B.

SNB Interest Rate Decision (Q1)
In March 2025, the Swiss National Bank cut rates by 25bps to 0.25%, the lowest since September 2022, marking its fifth cut in the cycle. Inflation fell to 0.3% in February (from 0.7% in November), mainly due to lower electricity prices, though service costs remain elevated. Inflation is projected at 0.4% for 2025, and 0.8% for 2026–2027. The SNB expects GDP growth of 1–1.5% in 2025, supported by real wage gains and looser policy, though weak global demand poses a risk. Growth in 2026 is forecast at 1.5%, but geopolitical and trade uncertainties remain.

BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar)
The BoE held rates at 4.5% in March, with an 8-1 vote, as it remains cautious amid elevated inflation and global uncertainty. Swati Dhingra voted for a 25bps cut. CPI inflation rose to 3.0% in January and is expected to peak at 3.75% in Q3 2025, despite falling energy prices. The BoE emphasized a gradual approach to easing, noting increased trade policy risks and market volatility.

Initial Jobless Claims
In mid-March, initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 223,000, just below the 224,000 forecast, while continuing claims increased by 33,000. The data reflects a still-strong labor market despite weak Q1 economic figures and tight policy. DOGE-related claims fell by 514 to 1,066, though many affected workers may delay filing due to severance packages.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Mar)
The index dropped to 12.5 in March from 18.1 in February, but still beat the 8.5 forecast. 31% of firms reported increased activity (down from 41%), while 18% saw declines (vs 23%), and 47% reported no change (up from 35%). New orders fell 13 points to 8.7, and shipments dropped 24 points to 2, though both stayed positive. Employment rose to 19.7, the highest since October 2022, while prices paid jumped to 48.3, the highest since July 2022. Expectations for future activity and new orders declined, but firms still see employment rising, though more slowly.

Existing Home Sales (Feb)
Existing home sales rose 4.2% to an annualized 4.26M units, rebounding from January’s 4.7% drop, and beating the 3.95M forecast. Median price rose 3.8% YoY to $398,400. Inventory increased 5.1% to 1.24M homes, equal to 3.5 months of supply. NAR’s Lawrence Yun noted stable mortgage rates and improved inventory are helping to release pent-up demand.

Currencies
The US dollar index rose toward 104 on Friday, ending the week higher. The Fed held rates steady but reaffirmed plans for two cuts in 2025 while noting rising risks to growth, jobs, and inflation. Powell called Trump’s tariffs "transitory", downplaying inflation concerns and signaling no urgency for more cuts. Trade tension ahead of the April 2 tariff deadline and global growth worries supported the dollar.

The euro fell from a five-month high of $1.09547, following Lagarde’s warning about weaker eurozone growth and the impact of a potential 25% US tariff, which could cut growth by 0.3 pp, and 0.5 pp with EU retaliation. Lagarde said inflation effects would fade, and the ECB would likely not hike. Villeroy signaled room for rate cuts, but markets now expect just two ECB cuts in 2025, while the Fed reaffirmed its two-cut plan.

The British pound dipped below $1.30, down from a four-month high, after the BoE held rates at 4.5% and took a cautious stance on easing. Trade policy uncertainty and new US tariffs raised inflation risks. UK growth remains weak, with unemployment steady at 4.4% and wage growth slowing to 5.8%, matching forecasts.
The Japanese yen weakened to 149 per dollar, reversing earlier gains. Core inflation eased to 3% in February (Jan: 3.2%) but beat the 2.9% forecast, reinforcing the case for further BOJ hikes. The BOJ kept rates at 0.5%, citing global uncertainty and tariff impacts. The stronger US dollar and trade worries added pressure on the yen.

Commodities
Gold hovered around $3,030 per ounce on Friday, near record highs and heading for a third straight weekly gain, driven by dovish Fed signals and safe-haven demand. The Fed confirmed plans for two rate cuts in 2025, while Powell downplayed Trump’s tariffs as "transitory." Middle East tensions escalated with Israel, Hamas, and U.S. military actions, and Trump’s April 2 tariff deadline added to global trade concerns. Gold is up over 15% year-to-date.
Silver fell over 2% to $33, pressured by China’s weak industrial outlook as Beijing introduced new stimulus without specifics. Still, the metal held near five-month highs due to supply concerns, partly linked to tariff disruptions.

Equities
Indices have had a flat-to-positive week. While the Nasdaq closed the week flat, the Dow and S&P 500 saw limited gains. The standout performer in the rallies was Netflix, followed by Nvidia and Microsoft. On the red side, Meta and Tesla stood out with approximately 5% drops, while Amazon and Google also ended the week in the negative, joining them.

 

[cretui5]

Markets remain cautious, with particular attention focused on monetary policy, trade tensions, and geopolitical risks. The dollar continues to strengthen, while global growth prospects are being closely monitored, particularly in the eurozone and the United Kingdom.

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