y Technical Analysis by Forex4you

[Trevor]

Technical analysis 21th June 2012

EUR/USD
The eurodollar pair has fallen from the highs established after the yesterday's spike and breached the monthly pivot at 1.2660. It has formed a head & shoulders on the hourly chart and a piercing of the neckline at 1.2635 would target support at around 1.2600. The trend-line for the rally could however impede progress at 1.2620. A break below that line and clean out of the rising channel is a possibility, with a downside target at 1.2365, although a break below the key 1.2555 support level would enhance confirmation. A bullish recovery could be expected to re-touch the 1.2740 highs.

AUD/USD: rising wedge
The aussie has been rising in a wedge formation but it may be in the process of reversing. The pair looks overbought on the 4-hr chart and has met the 50% Fibonacci level of the previous down-move. There has been no actual follow-through to the downside yet and so it remains to be seen whether this is in fact a top. The next support level down is from an old trend-line at 1.0110, parity is another important support level. A bearish break out of the wedge could go all the way down to 0.9870. A continuation higher could be expected to find resistance at 1.0215.

GBP/USD
The price continued consolidating within 1.5720/40 – 1.5650 rage of local maximums. Trading attempted to rise further up, but failed and made only several short-term bounces. The pair currently resides at 1.5690/1.5700 level. Indicators are turning down, which gives reasons to expect a possible reversal down. However, the fact that SS is being overbought suggests being careful. Besides, the price now resides above the short-term trend (blue) line, which indicates strong bullish positions and gives grounds to anticipate growth to 1.5840 level. If, however, the above mentioned trend line is breached around 1.5600/1.5590 support, downtrend may recommence towards 1.5470/60 level and then to minimums at 1.5270/80.

USD/JPY
Earlier forecasts seem to have confirmed. The price recommenced growth, breached the first strong resistance at 79.40/50 level and is now testing another strong barrier on the way up – level 79.80/90. Indicators suggest further growth, most likely to 80.20 and then to 80.60, 81.20/30 levels, mentioned earlier. Should the price reverse down, it'll meet strong support at 79.40/50 level.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

 

[Trevor]

Technical analysis 25th June 2012

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is falling and will probably continue. On Friday it made a definitive breakout out of its ascending channel on the daily chart. Taking the width of the channel as a measure the target for the breakdown is estimated at 1.2370. A nearer target would be the old lows at 1.2440 which if broken would probably see a strong sell-off as bullish resistance crumbles and a move to the 1.2290 lows possible.

USD/JPY
Earlier forecasts, expecting the price to halt its growth and commence a correction, seem to have confirmed. Having made another attempt to ascend, trading tested 80.60 level and pulled back down. At the moment it’s testing 80.00/05 support. Indicators are weakening their bullish readings, which can be considered as a sign for further correction. The price may slip to 79.80/70 level, which won’t change medium-term bullish picture anyway. Growth towards 81.20/30 level may commence anytime soon. 79.80/70 level breakout will give reasons to doubt of the uptrend's strength. Decline below 79.40/30 level will indicate the reversal of the bearish sentiment in the market.

GBP/USD: bearish continuation expected
Cable has broken down out out of its rising channel and has started to fall. There is a strong probability that it will continue lower eventually reaching a 1.5360 target, although there is a substantial level of support at 1.5450 where the bulls are expected to put up a fight. There is a chance of small pull-back in the short-term, which might see it push back up to support and resistance at 1.5605 before resuming its descent.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

 

[Trevor]

Technical analysis 26th June 2012

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair has recovered and corrected higher reaching 1.2530, however it is now starting to sell-off quite strongly and has already fallen almost 50 pips in an hour. This could mark the beginning of a new wave lower which will probably reach support at around 1.2435. A break of that level would be key to opening the way to the breakout target at 1.2370. Eventually the old lows at 1.2290 are also possible from there.

EUR/GBP: potential break-out
The EUR/GBP pair has just broken out of its rising channel and has just fallen to below 0.7995 adding confirmation to back up the validity of the breakout. The move is a little slow and this could be a sign that it will correct back up and re-touch the lower channel-line at 0.8050, however, overall the picture is strongly bearish, and a continuation down to the target at 0.7900 is probable – although the monthly pivot at 0.7915 might provide a closer target.

GBP/USD
GBP/USD has broken down through a major trend-line but then surprisingly bounced back, re-testing the underside of the same trend-line. On the hourly chart it has posted a shooting star candlestick and looks poised to decline lower, with the 1.5550 support level targeted first – although there is major support at 1.5450. A break higher, on the other hand, might reach as high as the monthly pivot at 1.5665.

AUD/USD
Hopes that 1.0000 support would be a strong barrier, confirmed. The price attempted to breach this barrier, but failed, so it's currently consolidating within 1.0000 – 1.0080 range. Trading is carried out at 1.0050/55 level. Indicators are rather unclear, opt to growth though, which may indicate another resistance test at 1.0080 and further sideways movement within earlier formed ranges. Growth above 1.0120/30 resistance will indicate the change of sentiment in the market.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

 

[Trevor]

Technical analysis 27th June 2012

EUR/USD
The eurodollar pair is tracing out a possible inverted head and shoulders with the right shoulder currently forming now and momentum studies are strongly converging. My preference is for the completion of this pattern and a break higher, through the neckline at 1.2530 and then rallying strongly up to the target situated in a cluster of resistance at 1.2580. A break lower, on the other hand, would probably reach the target for the breakout from the channel at 1.2370.

USD/JPY
The USD/JPY pair is rising in a channel after reversing out of its down-trend. It is now finely balanced after having retraced 61.8% of the previous move. If it recovers and pushes higher, the rising channel will probably extend and it could reach the upper line at 81.10. On the other hand it is also possible that the pair will continue to move down, breaking out of the rising channel and extending to the old lows at 77.70, in what is probably a final 5th wave of the move down which began in March.

GBP/USD
Hopes that 1.5650/40 resistance would be strong confirmed. Having tested this barrier, the price halted its growth and is now prone to decline. Indicators weakened, but are still bearish. Therefore, further dissension towards 1.5540/30 level and then down to the local minimums is expected. To make it happen, however, the price has to first breach the closest support at 1.5590 level. Before it happens the price can reach higher resistance at 1.5700/10 levels, especially if it breaches 1.5650 level on the way.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

 

[Trevor]

Technical analysis 28th June 2012

EUR/USD: continuation probable
The EUR/USD pair has resumed its down-trend and will probably fall to reach the target from the channel breakout earlier which lies at around 1.2370, and which also happens to be near where the weekly pivot is located. In Elliot terms this new wave down may be a wave 5 of the breakout move from the triangle in May, and it will therefore probably eventually re-touch the 1.2280 lows.

AUD/USD: downside possible
The aussie has corrected back to a long-term down-sloping trend-line which is resisting further upside. It is in the process of forming a shooting star candlestick pattern today and if the bearish candlestick is confirmed by more downside tomorrow then we may see the move unfold to the monthly pivot at 0.9943. Eventually the fibonacci 50% retrace level which is also where legs' A and C of the bear move are equal at 0.9885 might also be targeted.

GBP/USD
It is possible that GBP/USD will rebound to 1.5600 in the short-term but eventually the move down should continue and probably reach the strong clustering of targets at the 1.5410 support level where wave C will equal A. Thereafter there is the possibility of a move all the way down to the 1.5330 lows – particularly as the target from the channel lies at a similar level and the wave sequence supports such an interpretation.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

 

[Trevor]

Technical analysis 2nd July 2012

EUR/USD
The strong rise at the end of last week breached the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement of the previous fall and established the beginnings of a short-term up-trend which will probably move higher, with the next target at the lower line of the rising channel at 1.2750. A stronger move might then follow-through to 1.2860 to make wave equality. However, the longer-term trend is still definitely down and so there is a possibility of a rapid decline back down to 1.2400.

USD/JPY: bouncing off support
The USD/JPY has fallen to support from the trend-line of the recent rally. There will probably be a rebound from here back up to perhaps 80.30 first and then if the move continues to the recent highs and the 100-day MA at 80.55. The other less likely possibility is a break below the trend-line with support at 78.80 targeted initially.

AUD/USD
The aussie has broken above the down-sloping trend-line from the February highs and continued to rally higher. It will probably reach the top of the rising channel it is currently in at 1.0400 before slowing. If it breaks out of that than the next target is at wave equality at 1.0550 – and a break above 1.0600 would be very bullish as it would disqualify the head and shoulders pattern at the highs. If the current rally fails however and rolls over then it would probably target parity to the downside.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

 

[Trevor]

Technical analysis 5th June 2012

EUR/GBP: channel breakout
The EUR/GBP pair has definitively broken out of its rising channel and has started falling. It has stopped temporarily at the level of the monthly pivot at 0.7975 and whilst there is a chance of a short-term bounce to 0.8005 after that it will probably resume its descent. The next target down are the old lows at 0.7950 and then the target from the channel breakout at 0.7905.

AUD/USD
The aussie is still rising and has broken above the 100-day MA. There is a strong possibility the move higher will continue until long-term resistance at 1.0370 and then perhaps the top of the channel at 1.0430. However, momentum is diverging and MACD turning down so there is also the possibility of weakness or more sideways movement, with the 100-day at 1.0250 featuring prominently as a target and then the lower channel line at 1.0130.

EUR/USD: continuing weakness
Eurodollar continues to edge back down and has now passed below the cluster of pivots and MAs around 1.2560. It has reached the 61.8% retracement of the previous spike up and it could begin to reverse and move higher again from here although support-turned-resistance at around 1.2550 may be a barrier. A move below the 74.6% Fibonacci level at 1.2474 would prove key as it would mark the capitulation of bullish bets and accelerate further downside to 1.2400.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort and Arkady Nagiev
Forex4you analysts

 

[Trevor]

Technical analysis 17th July 2012

EUR/USD
The EUR/USD pair is rising within a down-sloping channel. It will probably reach the upper channel line at 1.2360. The target for the double bottom and the monthly pivot, however, lie slightly higher at 1.2380 – another possible target. The key reversal on Friday indicates the possibility of a trend-reversal and start of a new up-trend. Alternatively it is possible the rally will pull-back to support from a cluster of MA's and the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.2225.

USD/JPY: downside possible
The yen has been correcting back and it has now reached a 61.8% Fibonacci of the previous move. My preference is for more downside given the incomplete wave sequence down from the March highs. A break below the 76.4% Fibonacci line at 78.36 would see the bears back in control and an eventual target set at the 77.66 lows. Alternatively a rally would see a move up to the cluster of resistance at 79.45, before a possible continuation to the 80.60 highs.

GBP/USD
The GBP/USD has been unfolding lower in an expanding triangle visible on the daily chart. The recent up-leg has encountered resistance from the upper boundary line at the current 1.5645 highs. From here there is a possibility of a pull-back to 1.5615. A decisive break below 1.5590 would be required to erode the bullish position, with downside target at 1.5450. The pair could also push higher, with a move above 1.5721 undermining bearish bets and targeting 1.5750 first and then 1.5900.

Analysis prepared by:
Joaquin Monfort
Forex4you analyst