usdjpy's mount fuji

[hayseed]

if we consider 78.00 as my entry and 148.00 my exit, that gives 7000 pips to work with...... makes me wonder what a 1000$ account would turn into....

admit upfront the mountainous plan seems far fetched, however in 95 the usdjpy started that very same trek, 78 to 148...... took about 3 years to complete so it's clearly not without precedence......

what's left is to decide how to best place the orders..... grids come to mind, but my fear is they might be somewhat inefficient for this.....

perhaps simple entrys on extreme weakness and partial exits on extreme strength.... only to re-enter if possible on the retrace...... this backing and filling should allow for dense order placement...... possibly as many as 100 orders per thousand pips.....

of course given the 1k inital balance the lot size must be small at first and risk kept low..... this will be cautious long trades only..... there is no point in denying, 74 is a heck of a lot closer than 148......

will hammer out the details and post later, along with trades......h

 

[hayseed]

a change in the wind

so why attempt this now?...... a simple question..... the answer would not be......

partial reasoning would lie in the futures.....

the yen futures as reported by the cme, have been weighing on my mind..... at the begining of 2012 as the traders were yen short, the usdjpy rose.... as they turned yen long the usdjpy fell..... they are now yen short again..... this might have the wind to our back effect....... subject to change of course.....

compare the chart of both the yen futures and the weekly usdjpy..... and while your at it compare the british pound futures and the gbpjpy.....


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left somethin out in the first post....
as mentioned this will be usdjpy long trades only with some possibly lasting multi months or years..... being so, i will need 3 additional pairs to serve as replacements for 'usdjpy' shorts.... opposing trades in the same account are not allowed in the states.....

the gbpjpy will be one, not sure of the other 2 yet......h

 

[Enivid]

Institutional traders are already long USD/JPY according to latest CoT report by CFTC.

 

[hayseed]

wishing wells

Institutional traders are already long USD/JPY according to latest CoT report by CFTC.

hey enivid....... and so am i...... .......

though lately i've been wishing not......h

 

[Enivid]

How is your USD/JPY position? Is it still open? What was your entry level?

 

[hayseed]

entrys

hey enivd..... my lowest still standing order is at 77.4, highest is at 78.6 ...... there are about a dozen more in between at odd levels......

a few dozen have closed over the last couple weeks......

timing on this deal was off...... really thought 78 would hold and did not expect qe3 ......

it now appears low 70's might be seen again..... which is of course ok, all we need is a base..... whether it's 78 or 72......

actually the lower it goes, the easier my job will be.......h

 

[Enivid]

How did you manage your stop-loss?

BTW, according to the latest CoT report, big money is still long on yen on CME.

 

[hayseed]

long term construction plans

hey enivid..... in this specific usdjpy deal, it's a flat 300 pips..... my goal is to establish a base and then build a pyramid on top of those...... so if 70 turns out to be the base, 140 will be the target..... obviously years away..... the density of orders will gradually taper off much like the pyramids steps......


i tried the same thing just about this time last year ..... and learnt the hard way of the need to taper off the orders as the price rises......

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other than this deal and on other pairs, usually my stoploss is 50 pips..... it seems most comfortable......h

 

[hayseed]

and we're off

my target entry of 78 was hit perfectly on sept 7th..... .....
lucky 7.....

on sept 13th, the fed did the unthinkable, by me, announcing qe3..........
unlucky 13.....

such is trading.......

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zoran gayer had a habit of marking important events on the chart..... so in retrospect months or years later we can better remember what went on that day..... otherwise we might forget.....

on long range charts with long range targets it helps......

it also helps, at least for me, to see every closed trade..... start to finish..... again, otherwise we might forget...... kinda wish i could sometimes.......

in the chart below the indicator plots every closed trade..... lime if it's positive, red if not....... it also talleys the closed orders , buys, sells, wins, losses, pips, profit, and swap....

on open orders it talleys the combined risk, reward and ratio, along with what i view as true current risk, reward and ratio......

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this is a small account with a huge target...... as a rule the lot sizes will be small......

there have been 126 trades closed since the 7th but only 15 have been usdjpy...... most are from a modified macd ea running on other pairs to help out the usdjpy orders...... and lately they have needed all the help they can get.......h

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[hayseed]

4 atr

all but one trade closed on the rare 4 atr move..... odds favor a retrace at that point.... one new trade has already been placed.... more will follow......

my focus is still up, but well aware of the down..... mid seventies would not surprise me, low seventies would be welcomed......

near term, 77.5 is on my mind.....h

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[salahsambo5600]

you not to rely on any recommendations published on the Internet only after making sure of its power and the efficiency of the technical analyst who is given a recommendation
And I advise you depending on yourself recommendations in this respect

 

[hayseed]

first month

first month, 9-8 to 10-8, drew to a close this week......

and for the third time a 4x atr move took out most of the usdjpy trades..... odds favor a retrace, but odds are just that, odds...... there is no guarentee...... the sept 29'th 4x atr move is a painfully obvious reminder that there is none.....

just spilt milk..... we must move on......

the usdjpy now only has 4 trades left..... 33 closed, 1 loss......

next week we should get back on track..... and perhaps build some steam......

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the gpbusd is one the most dependable pairs when using the macd..... usually the win/loss ratio will be 2 to 1 or better...... currently it's 3 to 1..... with 15 losses, it has almost twice the number of losers as the next pair.....

no usdchf trades have been placed...... the rest of the usd crosses have faired well..... a few trades were also made on other jpy crosses.....

the usdjpy is my primary focus, all other trades are just footin the bill.......

this is long term, with small lot size untill account can handle more......

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the '451 history' indicator below is used in the pictures...... place mouse curser over the line to see pips, ticket number, lot size, profit....... there must be stoplosses and profittargets on all orders for some of the calculation's.....

'sendmissingvalues' will not work in this version...... h

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[hayseed]

+/- 600 pips

my focus is still up, but well aware of the down..... mid seventies would not surprise me, low seventies would be welcomed......

near term, 77.5 is on my mind.....h

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why 77.5 ..... the trendlines in the chart below somewhat explains...... however, as we all know, drawing support and trend lines seems to be a never-ending story of redrawing.....

why mid seventies...... no point denying, the trend is still kinda down...... or at least for sure it ain't clearly up.......

in retrospect would be welcomed was a very poor choice of words..... low seventies are conceivable would have been better........

why low seventies......... the 'flash crash' of 5/6/10 sent the usdjpy tumbling 600 pips in a single day...... who can say what type move this euro ordeal is capable of creating..... > 600 pips should just about clear out every stoploss imaginable......

77.5 is still on my mind..... +/- 600 pips of course......h

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[hayseed]

painful events

ever so often, about 3 times a week, i shoot myself in the foot......

the usdjpy did not retrace as thought and i have the pain in my foot to prove it..... to make matters worse, the market poured salt on the wound by moving 100 pips more..... so no chance to re-enter.....

such is gambling......

over all, the other pairs pulled their weight so the week ended positive.... somewhat......

still have high hopes..... will add usdjpy trades on weakness......h

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[hayseed]

openin' day

ahhhh....... the traders lament......

the usdjpy finally retraced but 100 pips above my exit...... 2 entrys were made there....... both stand a good chance of going in the red next week..... as long as it stays above 78, i'm ok..... will add on weakness......

the others pairs continue to pick up the slack..... except currently several audusd trades are in the hole...... but 'no worrys' as they say downunder......


opening day of deer season here...... so 'git-r-done' as we say here......h

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[hayseed]

windows 8

ordered a new dell 'all in one' computer last week....... runs on windows 8..... should be here tommorrow.....

i run both metastock and metatrader 24 hours a day..... will be upgrading to metastock 12 when computer arrives.....

not much on the net reguarding compatability..... so i'll will post any problems that noticed......

now if the gbpcad and gbpusd would fall 100 pips each..........h

 

[hayseed]

windows apps

it's official..... you can loose money just as fast using windows 8 as windows 7.....

good news is, metatrader appears to work fine.... subject to change......

ran it from a usb flash drive and also downloaded a new platform from ibfx.... noticed no troubles..... ea's ran.... ibfx's undock chart feature worked with ea's attached.... ran two copies of same account at same time with same ea built to modify orders but with different settings.... they fought each other taking turns modifing orders...... everything went thru.... trades were opened, modified and closed.....


my first take on windows 8 is positive but it's clear microsoft is just trying to cash in on apples 'apps' success....

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if you code excessively, past work can be a burden..... it's a habit of mine to download new platforms the first of every month and delete almost everything coded last month..... this allows me to stay focused on what needs to be done rather than what has been..... some of that code might be of use to others..... i'll upload anything of potential value here......

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so..... another week and another extreme spike took out most of the usdjpy orders..... the other pairs are plugging along doing what they can to help...... but as before, my focus is the usdjpy and will add on weakness......

or at least the usdjpy will be my focus come sundays open....... till then, my focus is on deer huntin......h

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[Enivid]

Are you still mainly bullish on USD/JPY? It seems like some nice profit could be raked in Sept/Oct simply by going long-term long.

 

[hayseed]

terms

hey enivid..... I like your term 'mainly bullish'...... to me, this implies someone long term bullish but quickly admits possible periods of weakness.....

that fits my view of the usdjpy perfectly...... actually i need brief periods of weakness..... so my usdjpy holdings must be small and nimble till balance allows otherwise....

the account needs to stand a replay of the oct 4, 98 week drop..... a 2400 pip fall.... it's possible to see that again....

in the statement picture you can see that of 397 trades only 94 have been long..... the shorts are other pairs that would soften any usdjpy fall.....

or maybe a better term would be hopefully soften......h

 

[hayseed]

mommmmmy!!!!!!

ok...... who was the moron that said he actually needed brief periods of weakness.....

oh yeah.......... that was me..... dangit...... oh my achin foot........

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and so ends the second month of this multi year deal..... only 21 trades were closed this week..... we take what the market gives us, not a single trade more.....

the remaining trades overall ended in the red about 80 bucks..... to me, this is a good thing..... the same ground must be traveled over and over before it is firm...... the more we cycle between 78 and 80 the better......

have high hopes for next week..... but will accept otherwise........

will add on weakness......h

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