usdjpy's mount fuji

[hayseed]

0 usdjpy trades closed last week.... maximum drawdown was little over 7k.....

daily coils continue to tighten..... all indicators, except zigzag, suggest to a continued possibility of further weakness ......

zigzag is mentioned here due to the fact that it has now painted a down leg on the 1440 chart.... 'buy the dip' traders will often wait for that very down leg.... of course it could extend further down, but that is immaterial in their mind.....

currently little over 7 standard lots are 4k under water..... no plans for new trades this week unless some are closed first....

prepared for large equity swings.....h

 

[hayseed]

remaining open trades are about 30 pips in the hole..... i would call them poorly positioned at best.....
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those trades are somewhat better positioned today or gone completely.....

closed little over 5 standard lots this week..... not all were positive...... vast majority were usdjpy.... couple gbpusd and eurusd..... cleared slightly over 1300 for the week.....

the remaining 5.2 standard lots with an average price of less than 98, are far better positioned this week..... currently standing 3750 positive.....

will add at the minimum rate of 1 standard lot for every 100 pips..... so if we reach my year end goal of 105, there should be a minimum of 11 standard lots.....

the budget/debt circus might delay 105, but there is no harm in that.....

prepared for large equity swings.......h

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[hayseed]

it likely will take a week or more for the recent usd's bitter taste to pass..... it will....
-

it has.......
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rough week..... several unexpected events caught the big players off guard...... stoploss's did the rest......
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closed 6.4 standard lots for almost 3300..... remaining 4.2 standard lots still open at about 3200 positive.....

the usdjpy monthly atr is about 400 pips no matter how you look at it..... at 5 standard lots we'd be talkin +/- 20k ........

prepared for large equity swings......h
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[hayseed]

forex is the definition of high risk..... charts only for reference.... nothing more.....h

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updates for reference only of some charts posted prior......

gbpusd has continued to walk up the daily trend line posted on 8/31/13.... will be interesting to see if can push further.....

the world is euro long in a dangerous way..... here is marc's latest posted from his site a few minutes ago.....

with that info in mind, makes me wonder if the eurgbp might remind us it's a downtrend.... one short step at a time.......h

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[hayseed]

wouldn't surprise me if the usdjpy bounced between 105 and 90 for quite sometime....

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5 months and we still bounce between.....

closed 37 orders this week for a little over +5k ...... couple eurgbp shorts, rest were usdjpy..... 80 orders closed for month so far, little over +8k......

only 2 standard usdjpy lots left open, about 600 positive..... lightened up considerably due to bearish chart pattern...... really not afraid of the pattern or anything it might produce, just prefer to watch......

minimum lot size beginning sunday will now be 3 mini lots..... maximum combined open lots will remain 8 standard lots for at least 1 more week.....

have high hopes for next week....... neither 98 or 102 would surprise me.....

prepared for both, along with minor equity swings.......h

 

[hayseed]

however, in the back of my mind, i feel within 60 days it will cross above 100 and then spend a long residency in the triple digits.....

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there will come a time when usdjpy trades will be left to stand.... 0 have closed so far this week.... currently 4.4 standard lots open at average price of 100 flat..... see no need to consider them at risk at this point.... ie, they will stand as is......

looking elsewhere....... updates on some charts posted prior...... and by no means meant to be trading advice......

audusd, currently 9 mini lots short, appears to be lookin at .9 and below.... the move, if it comes to be, needs to be fast..... the negative swap on shorts is a killer on long drawn out trades.....

eurusd, currently 2.5 standard lots short, is beginning to breakdown, or is it..... the fall, if it comes to be, could be several hundred pips ..... my target is much lower..... no rush here..... drawdowns will be accepted......

gbpusd, currently 3 mini lots short and the only group in the red, -71$, is the wild card..... still targeting the 100 ma which is still rising......
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odds are there will be less than 10 to 20 trades closed per week for the rest of the year..... trades will be added, just left to ride......h

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[hayseed]

for the second week in a row the usdjpy has finished with a bearish chart pattern....

only a handful of eurgbp and audusd trades closed this week.... slightly over 1100 positive.... both have room left to fall.... odds are will re-short next week.....

no usdjpy trades were closed..... currently 4.7 standard lots open at 5366 positive.... average price is now 100.08..... that's the etrade account only.... ibfx not included in it.....

additional trades will be placed as , or should say if, the price continues to rise..... they should have little impact on the average 'open' price.....

minimum lot size stays at 3 mini lots and maximum total open lots remains at 8 standard lots..... both values should move up '1' next week....h

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[hayseed]

eurusd has now painted a zigzag up leg on the daily chart, which coincides with last weeks high....

average daily zigzag length is roughly 249 pips.... current length is 172 pips.... meaning on average there is 77 pips left to rise..... that would put it almost dead on the 1.38 fib extension.....

whack-every-rally traders will often wait for the daily up leg...... hmmmm.......

that same eur strength has my eurgbp shorts 300 bucks under water......

let'em buy back all my etradefx usdjpy longs...... also all but 2 of those longs in the ibfx metatrader chart above are now gone.......will slowly re-enter.....h

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forgot to mention the gbpusd which is also working off the daily up leg effect..... average gbpusd daily length is roughly 322 pips, current leg is 386 pips..... triple top attempt at 1.6250 suggests it could go either way.....

light volume on holiday weeks often exaggerate moves..... i'm gittin light most everywhere as precaution.....h

 

[hayseed]

admit upfront the mountainous plan seems far fetched, however in 95 the usdjpy started that very same trek, 78 to 148...... took about 3 years to complete so it's clearly not without precedence......

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might be time to focus here again..... sounds like the fed probably will probably light a fire under the $index.....

2 days ago the daily was oversold..... today, not so much so......h

 

[hayseed]

if we consider 78.00 as my entry and 148.00 my exit, that gives 7000 pips to work with.........h

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and some years later,

if we consider 155.00 as my entry and 100.00 my exit, that gives 5500 pips to work with.......h

 

[Enivid]

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and some years later,

if we consider 155.00 as my entry and 100.00 my exit, that gives 5500 pips to work with.......h

Are you talking about USD/JPY here?

 

[hayseed]

Are you talking about USD/JPY here?

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hey enivid..... yes.... it's hard for me to see it higher than 155.... easy to see it at 145......

started selling yesterday at 150...... expecting a rocky start..... small lot size ....h

 

[hayseed]

i apologize for the timing of this chart...... seconds ago my usdjpy trades were down - 200 and maybe -50 on gbpjpy.....

my intention was to show max loss, then just as went i went to copy the chart it had fell...... perhaps intervention......

that's luck..... not good trading...... i will not be closing these trades ....... very likely by the end of the day it will be -200 again.....

i am selling against a strong uptrend and expect possibly a 2000 draw down before it turns in my favor..... really would like to see 155......

and again, do not confuse temporary luck with good trading.......h
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[hayseed]

dark clouds might clear by morning , but as is, tonite is lookin kinda rough.......

really need gbpjpy to fall and usdjpy to rise.....h
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[hayseed]

Are you still mainly bullish on USD/JPY? It seems like some nice profit could be raked in Sept/Oct simply by going long-term long.

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even after almost 12 years, how many times have these 6 words still come to mind...... my long gone longs were wasted.....

floating like a butterfly from pretty flower to pretty flower has not served me well in trading......

what a shame.......h