2023 Market Forecast by SolidECN

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EURUSD Forex Trading Analysis: Key Levels and Indicators

The EURUSD forex pair is currently undergoing a critical test at the 1.07 pivot point. With the Relative Strength Index (RSI) inching closer to the mid-point of 50, traders are keeping a close eye on the market dynamics.

Should the bears manage to push the price below this level on the 4-hour chart, the next target on the downside is expected to be 1.058. This potential move could signal a shift in market sentiment and a possible strengthening of the USD against the Euro.

However, as long as the EURUSD pair maintains its position above the pivot, the market trend remains bullish. This suggests that the Euro is still holding its ground against the USD.

Stay tuned for more updates on EURUSD technical analysis and forex trading strategies.​

 

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Record Highs in US Household Debt​

In the third quarter of 2023, the total household debt in the US saw a 1.3% increase, reaching a new peak of $17.29 trillion.

The rise in debt was seen across various sectors. Mortgage balances climbed to $12.14 trillion, while credit card balances reached $1.08 trillion. Student loan balances and auto loan balances both increased to $1.6 trillion, with the latter maintaining an upward trend that began in 2011. Other balances, encompassing retail credit cards and other consumer loans, remained relatively unchanged at $0.53 trillion.

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Delinquency Rates on the Rise​

There was also an increase in aggregate delinquency rates, with 3% of the total outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency. Transition rates into delinquency rose for most types of debt, with the exception of student loans and home equity lines of credit.

Donghoon Lee, an Economic Research Advisor at the New York Fed, noted a significant increase in credit card balances in the third quarter. This aligns with robust consumer spending and real GDP growth.​

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis​

The EURUSD has rebounded from the 1.06 pivot point, as anticipated. As long as the pair trades above this pivot, it's plausible for the EURUSD bulls to target the 1.081 resistance level.

However, if the pivot is broken and the bears close below it in the 4H chart, the bullish outlook will be invalidated, shifting the bearish target to S1.​

 

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Comprehensive Analysis of the EURJPY Currency Pair

The EURJPY currency pair is currently at a crucial juncture. It's testing the upper line of the bullish channel on the 4-hour chart.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, is currently in the overbought area. This suggests that the currency pair may be overvalued, and a price correction could be imminent. In the near term, we anticipate that the EURJPY price might fall to test the middle line of the bullish channel. This is a common pattern observed when a currency pair is overbought, and it often precedes a short-term price decrease.

Following this, the next level to watch is the 159.65 pivot point. Pivot points are technical analysis indicators used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames. The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low, and closing prices from the previous trading day.

On the 4-hour chart, the 159.652 level represents a critical support level. If the price reaches this level, we could see a bounce back to higher levels. However, if the price breaks below this level, it could indicate a continuation of the downward trend.​

 

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GBPUSD

The GBPUSD pair experienced a decline after reaching the significant 1.24 mark. Currently, the pair is delicately poised below the pivot point, testing the resilience of the bullish channel’s median line.

In the short-term, if the GBPUSD price manages to maintain above the crucial 1.225 support level, we could witness a bullish trend. This scenario presents an optimistic outlook for traders who are bullish on the GBPUSD.

However, a break below the 1.225 level could signal a potential downturn, extending the decline to the 1.21 mark, which represents the lower boundary of the bullish channel. This development would be significant for those keeping a close eye on this currency pair.​

 

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GBPJPY Forex Analysis: Bullish Trend and Key Resistance Levels

The GBPJPY currency pair is currently trading above the trend line and the significant resistance level of 184.5. The market trend is bullish, as indicated by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which is consistently above the 50 level. Given the current trend, we anticipate the pair to break the R1 resistance level and aim for R2 as its next target.

The pivot point is providing substantial support to the bullish scenario. However, if this level is breached and the GBPJPY price stabilizes below it, the bullish scenario may no longer hold.​

 

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USDCHF

The USDCHF currency pair is currently navigating a 4-hour bearish channel. It’s hovering above a key bullish trend line, marked in red. As long as the pair remains above this trendline, the target could potentially reach the R1 resistance level at 0.908.

However, if the USDCHF closes below this bullish trend line, it could signal a continuation of the downward momentum that began on November 1st. This could extend to the S1 level, followed by the S2 level.

It’s important to note that the bullish scenario appears weaker than the bearish scenario. The likelihood of the USDCHF bears closing below the Ichimoku cloud is high, which could pave the way for lower levels.

Remember, this analysis is based on current market conditions and could change with fluctuations in the market. Always trade responsibly.​

 

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EURUSD Market Outlook: Bullish Trend Amid Bearish Flags

The EURUSD currency pair is currently navigating within a bearish flag pattern, yet it remains above the Ichimoku Cloud, signaling a potential bullish market. As the pair tests the resistance at 1.06988, the market anticipates a possible upward trend.

EURUSD bulls face the challenge of the bearish flag, which stands as an obstacle to driving the price towards the next resistance level at 1.07353. However, as long as the EURUSD continues to trade within the confines of the bearish flag, the primary target remains at testing Support 1 (S1).

Conversely, should the bulls manage to break out of the bearish channel, it could pave the way towards Resistance 3 (R3). This scenario would indicate a significant shift in market dynamics, potentially triggering a new wave of bullish momentum for the EURUSD pair.​

 

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GBPUSD: A Detailed Analysis​

The GBPUSD currency pair, colloquially known as the "Cable," has recently seen some interesting movements. On Monday, during the early European trading hours, the Cable managed to break through the significant 1.2300 resistance level. This upward trend was primarily driven by the encouraging labor data from the US. The data for September showed a notable increase in wages and employment over the last three months, exceeding market expectations. This positive data has reinforced the Bank of England's hawkish stance on interest rates.


A Closer Look at the Trends

This breakthrough marks the third consecutive day of gains for the Cable. The bullish trend was initiated after a bear trap was set on Friday. The currency pair managed to penetrate and close within the thick daily cloud, which is a positive signal for the bulls. However, the 1.2300 resistance zone, which is a round-figure and also represents the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement of the 1.2737/1.2037 bear-leg, has been a significant hurdle. This resistance zone also coincides with the high of November 11.

For the bullish trend to continue, it's crucial for the Cable to break through this resistance zone decisively. Such a move would bolster the near-term structure and bring the key resistance levels at 1.2428/36 (the recovery top of November 6 and the 200-day moving average) into focus.


Momentum and Support Levels

The strong bullish momentum, as indicated on the daily chart, supports this upward movement. However, for the bullish bias to remain intact, the Cable needs to stay above the broken daily cloud base, which is further reinforced by the daily Kijun-sen at 1.2249.

Investors should exercise caution if the Cable breaks below the daily cloud. Such a move could weaken the near-term structure and risk testing the lower pivot at 1.2186, which was last Friday’s spike low.

As we look ahead, the release of the US inflation report for October is eagerly waited for fresh market signals. The resistance levels to watch are 1.2308, 1.2337, 1.2387, and 1.2428. On the other hand, the support levels are 1.2249, 1.2202, 1.2186, and 1.2095.


Economic Implications

The performance of the GBPUSD pair has significant implications for the economy. A stronger GBP against the USD could make imports cheaper but exports more expensive, potentially impacting the trade balance. Conversely, a weaker GBP could boost exports but make imports more expensive, leading to inflationary pressures. Therefore, the movements of the GBPUSD pair should be closely monitored by both investors and policymakers.​

 

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EURUSD

The EURUSD currency pair is currently trading within a bullish flag pattern. This suggests a potential rise to the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The pivot, or the lower line of the flag, reinforces this bullish outlook. As long as this level remains intact, we can anticipate an upward trajectory for the EURUSD price.

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis

During today's trading sessions, the GBPUSD pair made a significant jump, breaking out from the bullish flag pattern. Currently, the pair is testing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If it manages to stabilize above this level, the bulls are likely to set their sights on 1.259, followed by a potential rise to 1.272.

The pivot point at 1.218 lends support to this bullish scenario. As long as the pair continues trading above this level, the bullish outlook remains valid and intact.​

 

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EURUSD

The EURUSD pair has soared, reaching the 50% Fibonacci level on the daily chart. Market saturation from buying pressures is evident, as shown by the RSI indicator on the 4-hour chart. Interestingly, the upper line of the previously broken bullish flag now serves as a key support, fueling the uptrend's momentum. This resistance level presents an excellent opportunity for bulls to intensify their pressure on the USD.

 

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EURGBP Analysis

The EURGBP has experienced a decline from the median line of the bullish flag, extending to the 0.869 pivot. Importantly, this level aligns with the lower line of the bullish flag, making it a crucial point to maintain a bullish outlook.

The RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator, currently hovering above the 50 level, supports the bullish sentiment. If the EURGBP price can sustain above this pivot, an increase in price towards the R1 resistance level is likely.

Conversely, if the EURGBP price closes below the pivot and stabilizes itself at this lower level, the bullish scenario becomes invalid. In such a case, bears might aim to further drive the price down towards the S1 support level.​

 

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USDJPY Technical Analysis: A Fresh Bullish Surge

In today's trading session, the USDJPY currency pair demonstrated resilience, bouncing back from the bullish flag's lower boundary. This movement, supported by the S1 level, reinforces the bullish momentum.

The RSI indicator's rise above 50 adds to this optimism, suggesting the uptrend might persist. The pair now sets its sights on R2, aiming next for the bullish flag's upper line. This pattern indicates a robust bullish scenario, offering intriguing possibilities for traders.​

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis: Nearing a Key Level​

The EURUSD is approaching the upper boundary of the bullish flag in the 4-hour chart, just as anticipated. This critical juncture offers a compelling opportunity for buyers, with risks situated below the R2 level.

Should the R2 mark be breached, it would undermine the current bullish scenario.​

 

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USDJPY

The USDJPY currency pair has made a notable move, breaking through the median line of the bullish flag. Simultaneously, the RSI indicator surged above the 50 level. This signals a strong bullish momentum in the pair. As it remains above the pivot, bulls are likely setting their sights on the upper channel line.

However, this bullish scenario would be invalidated if the pair closes below the pivot. Keep an eye on these developments for key trading insights.​

 

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EURUSD

On November 14, the EURUSD pair saw a big increase, shown by a long bullish candle on the chart. This shows that prices are going up, a trend supported by the Ichimoku cloud. Now, the EURUSD is doing well above the cloud and is getting close to the 50% Fibonacci level. The important point here is that a key trendline is now helping push the price up. If the price stays above this line, it might reach the 61.8% Fibonacci level.

A significant aspect of this scenario is the shift in a key trendline from a barrier to a support factor, encouraging the currency pair's upward trajectory. The stability of the EURUSD price above this trendline fuels expectations among investors for it to reach even higher, particularly aiming for the 61.8% level on the Fibonacci scale.

However, if the price goes below this line, it could drop to the 38.2% Fibonacci level. But overall, as long as the price is above the Ichimoku cloud, the market looks positive for traders and investors.​

 

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GBPUSD Market Outlook

In recent trading sessions, the GBPUSD pair saw a reduction in downward pressure at the R1 level, aligning with the central line of the ongoing bullish flag pattern. Notably, the 4-hour chart of GBPUSD revealed a hammer candlestick formation, indicating a potential shift towards an upward movement. The chart analysis points towards an anticipated push towards the R2 resistance mark.

The bullish outlook is further reinforced by the support at 1.237. However, if this support fails, it's likely that the downward trend that began on November 15th may extend, targeting the 1.228 level as an immediate goal.​

 

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EURUSD Technical Analysis​

The EURUSD currency pair experienced a rise from the 1.083 pivot point, aligning with expectations. The Average Directional Index (ADX) is currently above the level of 30, demonstrating the strength of the bullish market. The next target for the EURUSD bulls is the R1 resistance level, which stands at 1.1. This target is attainable if the price can sustain itself above the pivot point.

 

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GBPUSD Technical Analysis ​

In line with expectations, the GBPUSD currency pair experienced a bounce back from the top boundary of its bullish flag pattern. This upward movement was further supported by the ADX indicator surpassing the 20 level, indicating an intensifying trend. As the pair holds above the flag's upper line, the bulls targeting GBPUSD are now likely setting their sights on the 50% Fibonacci retracement level as their next goal.

On the flip side, if the pair falls below the 1.24 threshold, it would negate the current bullish outlook, potentially leading to a downward trajectory towards the lows seen in October.​