2023 Market Forecast by SolidECN

[SOLIDECN]

Navigating the USDJPY Oversold Market: Strategy for Professional Trader​

Solid ECN – The RSI has been deep in the oversold area since March 8th. Despite the bulls resisting the extreme selling pressure, the uptick momentum seems weak, even with the RSI's position below 30.

Professional traders typically avoid short positions in an oversold market; therefore, waiting for the market to consolidate and stabilize itself is recommended. If the consolidation phase reaches the upper band of the bearish flag, this level, which coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, can offer a better price for joining the bear market.

Fortunately, the Awesome Oscillator bars have turned green, which could be interpreted as the start of the consolidation phase. At the moment, wise traders are waiting for USDJPY to form new higher lows and are adjusting their next moves accordingly.​

 

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EURUSD's Next Move: Navigating Above 1.091 Key Support​

Solid ECN – The EURUSD formed a hammer candlestick pattern on the 4-hour chart, clinging to the 50% Fibonacci support level at the 1.0914 mark. As of writing, the pair is trading at about 1.093, slightly above the resistance. While the European currency gains ground against the U.S. dollar within the bullish channel, the technical indicators do not offer significant insights.

From a technical standpoint, the next target would be 1.1 if the price maintains its position above 50%.

Conversely, if the price dips below the 50% level, it will likely decline to the 38.2% level, coinciding with the lower band of the channel.​

 

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GBPUSD's Potential Downshift and Support Levels​

Solid ECN – The pound sterling has pulled back from a significant level, the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance against the U.S. Dollar, resulting in the pair trading below 1.2827. Concurrently, the RSI indicator has retreated from the overbought area and is heading toward the 50 level.

This downshift could extend to the EMA 50, which aligns with the rising trendline.

Traders should pay close attention to the 61.8% Fibonacci support, which could present buying opportunities. If this level holds, the GBPUSD price will likely rise and retest the 1.2893 resistance.

However, if the rising trendline breaks, it's a clear sign that the bullish scenario should be invalidated. In this case, the consolidation phase will likely extend to the 1.2599 mark, the 50% Fibonacci support.

Therefore, we suggest observing the market's behavior around the EMA 50.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Bearish Signals: AUDUSD Technical Indicators Review​

Solid ECN – The seller of the AUDUSD pair formed a long wick candlestick pattern on the 4-hour chart, close to the 50% Fibonacci resistance at the 0.666 mark. Consequently, the pair dipped below 38.2% and is testing the EMA 50 as of writing.

The technical indicators signal a bear market, with the RSI closing below 50 and the Awesome Oscillator bars being red and declining.

From a technical standpoint, the AUDUSD pair has created a new higher high since the beginning of the year, and this is the first time the value went as high as 0.666. Therefore, the Australian currency is bullish against the U.S. dollar. That said, if the EMA 50 can withstand today's selling pressure, the market will likely aim for the upper band of the rising flag, which is close to the 61.8% resistance level.

Conversely, if the AUDUSD dips below the EMA 50, the next support level is 23.6%. Traders should watch the EMA 50 closely and adjust their strategy accordingly.​

 

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NZDUSD's Critical Levels: EMA 50 as the Decisive Barrier​

Solid ECN – The NZDUSD currency pair failed to stabilize the price above the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, and consequently, it dipped below the descending trendline depicted in blue.

The EMA 50 is currently preventing the price from dipping further. If this price breaches the 50-exponential moving average, the next target will likely be 0.6068, followed by the February low.

On the flip side, the 0.6215 mark is the pivotal point between a bull and bear market. If the New Zealand dollar breaks this resistance against the U.S. Dollar, the previously mentioned forecast should be invalidated, and traders must reevaluate the market accordingly.

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD's Bullish Momentum: Indicators and Support Levels​

The EURUSD currency pair consolidates its recent gains above the 50% Fibonacci support level, the 1.091 mark, where it formed a hammer candlestick pattern.

As of writing, the Euro trades at about 1.092, with the RSI indicator hovering above 50, which can be interpreted as a signal for the continuation of the uptrend. The EMA 50 and the lower band of the bullish channel support the current uptick momentum. That said, the bull market is likely to extend and test 1.098 as its first barrier.

Conversely, the 38.2% level divides the bull market from the bear market. Therefore, if the price dips below this level, the bull market should be invalidated.​

 

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GBPUSD Uptrend Signals: RSI Indicator's Positive Shift​

Solid ECN – The pound sterling is coming back from the 50 EMA, and as of writing, it is trading at about 1.279. The ascending trendline depicted in red provides support alongside the EMA 50. Interestingly, The RSI indicator has returned above the signal line, indicating that the uptrend will likely resume.

From a technical standpoint, as long as GBPUSD trades above the 1.2745 mark, the bull market will remain valid and will likely aim for the 50% Fibonacci resistance, followed by the 61.8%.

Conversely, a dip below the EMA 50 would invalidate the bullish market.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Mixed Indicators for the USDJPY​

The U.S. Dollar has recovered from 146.4 and tested the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance at the 148.1 mark. The EMA 50 and the Ichimoku cloud reinforce this resistance level, making it more robust.

The RSI and the AO indicators signal a bull market; however, the ADX indicates a slowdown in market momentum, which could be interpreted as a halt in the recent uptick bias.

From a technical standpoint, we are in a bear market, and the current bullish wave could be a consolidation phase. Therefore, the market will likely decline if the price remains below the EMA 50. A break below the ascending trendline, depicted in red, can trigger selling pressures.

Conversely, if the USDJPY bulls can cross the EMA 50 and stabilize the price above it, the bear market should be invalidated, and traders should reevaluate the market.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD Bulls Await Consolidation​

Solid ECN – As expected, the Euro rose in the last day's trading session against the U.S. Dollar. The EMA 50 and the Ichimoku cloud maintained the bull market. However, we noticed a long wick candlestick pattern formed in today's trading session, which could be construed as the beginning of a consolidation phase since it is a higher low.

From a technical standpoint, the market is bullish, but it is best to wait for the consolidation phase to be over. Please note that the EURUSD price should exceed the trendline depicted in black for the uptrend to resume. In this scenario, the bullish market will be triggered and will likely aim for the 1.1 mark.

The lower band of the channel plays a pivotal role between the bull and bear markets. For the uptrend to be invalidated, the price must dip below the 38.2% Fibonacci support.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

GBPUSD's Next Move: A Crucial Phase Beyond Fibonacci Resistance​

As anticipated, the pound sterling is on an upward trajectory against the U.S. Dollar, and this uptrend persists. The RSI indicator remains above 50, while the ADX signal, hovering around the 20 level, does not indicate significant volatility. Apparently, the market awaits for the price to surpass 50% Fibonacci resistance before adding new bets on the current trend.

From a technical perspective, the bulls have already disregarded the previous day's high, and momentum is likely to continue rising after a minor struggle with the aforementioned Fibonacci level. If this scenario comes into play, the 78.6% level would be the next target.

Please note, dear traders, the bull market is robust, and for it to be invalidated, the price must dip below the Ichimoku cloud.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Australian Dollar Outlook: Bullish Trends and EMA 50 Support​

Solid ECN – The Australian dollar has stabilized above the 38.2% Fibonacci support level and the previously broken descending channel. Interestingly, the ADX indicator is making a return above the 25 level, interpreted as a sign that a new trend is on the horizon. This signal from the ADX aligns with the RSI, where it hovers above the 50 level.

From a technical standpoint, the EMA 50 supports the bullish bias on the currency pair. If the price stays above it, the next target for buyers would be the upper band of the bullish channel, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.

Conversely, the EMA 50 acts as the critical pivot between the bull and bear markets. The uptrend should be considered invalidated if the U.S. Dollar pushes the Australian dollar below the mentioned moving average.​

 

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Analyzing NZDUSD: The Battle within the Bearish Channel​

In this evening's trading session, the U.S. Dollar is pushing the price in its favor against New Zealand's currency. The technical indicators give mixed signals; therefore, we rely on the price action and the support and resistance areas.

From a technical standpoint, the pair trades within a narrow, bearish channel, which can be interpreted as a sideways market. The level at 0.613 acts as support; if this level is breached, the NZDUSD will likely dip to the next support, which is located at about 0.6111.

Conversely, the price must surpass 0.6182 for the uptrend to continue. In this case, March's higher high would be retested.​

 

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Analyzing the Potential Reversal in EURUSD Trends​

The U.S. Dollar has returned from the 1.096 resistance level against the European currency. This ceiling is supported by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. As indicated in the 4-hour chart, the pair failed to surpass it on March 8.

As of writing, the EURUSD pair trades at about 1.088, close to the 1.086 support and slightly below the lower band of the bullish channel. Interestingly, this price is below the Ichimoku cloud and the EMA 50, which could be interpreted as a potential trend reversal.

From a technical standpoint, the bullish trend is invalidated since the price dipped below the cloud. However, the bears are required to close below the 38.2% Fibonacci level to trigger the main selling pressure. Failure to push the price below this level will likely lead to the price returning above the EMA 50, indicating that the uptrend may continue.
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Conclusion:​

For the bearish trend to resume, the price must close below the 1.086 level. Going short in the current market situation is risky because the bearish breakout lacks valid confirmation.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Indicators Point to a New Bearish Trend in GBPUSD​

Solid ECN – The Pound sterling lost ground against the U.S. Dollar in yesterday's trading session. As depicted in the GBPUSD 4-hour chart, the pair dipped below the EMA 50 and is currently testing it as a resistance level. Interestingly, technical indicators signal a bearish outlook, with the RSI hovering below 50 and the Awesome Oscillator showing red bars. Notably, the ADX currently hovers above the 25 level, which can be interpreted as the beginning of a new trend.

From a technical standpoint, the bears have broken below the bullish channel in red and are currently stabilizing the price at about 1.276. Therefore, as long as the price trades below the cloud, the secondary trend would be bearish, with the bears aiming for the 1.270 resistance, followed by 1.266.

The bearish technical analysis should be invalidated if the Pound sterling rises higher than the March 14 high, the 1.282 mark.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Pound Sterling Aims for Breakout Against Japanese Yen​

Solid ECN – The sterling pound lost ground against the Japanese yen in yesterday's trading session. As depicted in the GBPJPY 4-hour chart, the pair dipped below the EMA 50 and is currently testing it as a resistance level. The bulls on the Pound sterling are attempting to break out from the bearish channel against the Japanese Yen, which has trapped the price since early March. Currently, the pair trades at about 189.8, slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level.

The indicators are bullish. That said, from a technical perspective, if the Pound Sterling stabilizes price above the 50% level in today's trading session, the bullish wave will likely continue, with the next target being the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance.

Conversely, the downtrend will resume if the price dips below the channel.

Please note that to avoid trading on fake breakouts, the price must show stability above the broken channel before considering entering a buy position on the pair.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

Analyzing GBPUSD's Bullish Sentiments Amid Recent Downtrend​

Solid ECN – Pound Sterling demonstrated its resilience at the start of the Monday trading session. It opened with a slight gap against the U.S. Dollar but quickly recovered. It is currently holding strong at around 1.273.

The pair trades above the bullish trend line, as indicated in blue on the GBPUSD chart. Therefore, the primary trend remains bullish. However, the price has fallen from the 1.289 high and is now experiencing a downtrend within the bearish channel, marked in red.

The data from the chart suggests that the current downward momentum may represent a consolidation phase, setting the stage for a potential bullish comeback. The EMA 50, aligning with the trend line and the resistance level supported by the Ichimoku cloud, could provide a solid support for buyers to initiate this optimistic turn of events.

Please note that the price must break out of the bearish channel for the uptrend to resume. In this scenario, the rise could continue and target the high from February as its first significant milestone.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

The Battle Below EMA 50 in the EURUSD Market​

Solid ECN – The EURUSD is trading below the EMA 50, experiencing weak upward momentum after dropping from a higher low, the 1.0963 mark. The technical indicators are providing mixed signals. Although the Awesome Oscillator bars are green, the RSI remains below the 50 line, suggesting that the bear market is more dominant than the bull market.

As of writing, the EURUSD price is challenging the EMA 50, which serves as resistance around the 1.089 mark. There is a possibility that the price will reach the 50% Fibonacci support level, aligning with the upper band of the bearish flag in red. The reaction to this level will determine the pair's next direction.

From a technical perspective, if the bears keep the market below the EMA 50, the downtrend will likely continue and aim for the lower band of the bearish flag.

Conversely, if the price exceeds the moving average, depicted in yellow, it is expected to rise and challenge the 50% Fibonacci level.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

AUDUSD's Resilience: A Test Against Ichimoku Cloud Resistance​

Solid ECN – The Australian dollar rebounded from the 38.2% Fibonacci support level against the U.S. dollar in today's trading session. The pair is now testing the Ichimoku cloud as resistance, close to the EMA 50. The Awesome Oscillator bars are green, while the RSI remains below 50, giving mixed signals. Meanwhile, the ADX indicator has dropped to level 20, which can be interpreted as a slowdown in the trend.

From a technical standpoint, the bounce could extend to the upper band of the bearish flag depicted in red. However, as long as the AUDUSD price remains within the flag, the 23.6% Fibonacci level will likely be the next target.

The bear market should be invalidated if the price stabilizes itself above the cloud.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDJPY at the Crossroads of Overbought Conditions​

Solid ECN – The Japanese currency has again become bearish against the U.S. Dollar. As shown on the USDJPY 4-hour chart, the American currency has risen above the Ichimoku cloud and is trading at about 149.1 as of this writing.

Currently, the pair is testing the 61.8% Fibonacci support while the RSI indicator is about to enter the overbought area. Therefore, it is not recommended to go long on the U.S. currency in a saturated market; it is better to wait for the pair to form new higher lows and lower highs.

That said, with the Awesome Oscillator's red bars, there is a high chance for the market to drop to the ascending trendline in red. This level of support can provide a decent entry point to join the bull market.

Conversely, the bull market should be invalidated if the price falls below the 148.8 mark.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

USDCHF Hits New Heights Post-Wedge Breakout​

The U.S. Dollar broke out from the wedge pattern in today's trading session against the Swiss franc and is testing the 0.889 barrier as of writing.

The Awesome Oscillator signals divergence, which could be interpreted as a sign that a consolidation phase is likely on the way. Therefore, the price might dip to 0.885 before a new bullish wave begins. Interestingly, the RSI indicator is nearing the overbought zone, signaling the same as the AO.

From a technical standpoint, the ascending trendline in red supports the bull market. As long as the pair trades above this level, the primary trend will remain an uptrend. In this scenario, the market will likely surpass the 0.889 resistance and aim for the next target, the 0.895 mark.​

P.S. For the uptrend to resume, the market must pass and stabilize the price above the 0.889 mark.