2023 Market Forecast by SolidECN

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BTCUSD Hits April Low: What's Next for Bitcoin Prices?​

Bitcoin flipped below the Ichimoku cloud in last week's trading session. The decline continued this week, and today BTCUSD hit a new low for April, trading below the $64,400 mark. Interestingly, the RSI and the Awesome Oscillator also point to a bear market. In addition to RSI and Ao, the ADX climbs to 40, signifying that the downtrend is strengthening.

From a technical standpoint, the EMA 50 and the upper band of the bearish channel, marked in red, act as resistance levels. If Bitcoin's price remains below $67,000, the next target is likely the $60,000 mark.

Conversely, for the uptrend to resume, the price must cross above the EMA 50 and maintain its position above it.
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Noteworthy​

It's important to note that the primary market is bullish, and the current downward momentum is considered a consolidation phase, during which major players are collecting profits by sweeping the floor from retail traders.​

 

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EURUSD Hits New Low: Analyzing the Latest Bearish Wave​

Solid ECN – In today's trading session, the European currency dipped toward the 1.08 mark, its lowest since March 1st, against the U.S. Dollar. The drop was expected from a technical perspective because the bears formed an inverted hammer clinging to the EMA 50 yesterday. The failed attempt to cross above the moving average has led the EURUSD price to experience a new bearish wave.

As of this writing, the pair is testing the lower band of the bearish flag. The RSI indicator hovers in the oversold area; therefore, the market might make corrections below the EMA 50 before a new wave emerges.

From a technical standpoint, the primary market is dominated by bears if the price is kept below the cloud. Due to the RSI being in the oversold zone, we suggest waiting for the price to show some correction before joining the bear market. With the price below the mentioned resistance areas, the 23.6% Fibonacci support could be the next target.

The price must flip and stabilize itself above the cloud for the bear market to be deemed invalid.​

 

[SOLIDECN]

EURUSD Hits New Low: Analyzing the Latest Bearish Wave​

Solid ECN – In today's trading session, the European currency dipped toward the 1.08 mark, its lowest since March 1st, against the U.S. Dollar. The drop was expected from a technical perspective because the bears formed an inverted hammer clinging to the EMA 50 yesterday. The failed attempt to cross above the moving average has led the EURUSD price to experience a new bearish wave.

As of this writing, the pair is testing the lower band of the bearish flag. The RSI indicator hovers in the oversold area; therefore, the market might make corrections below the EMA 50 before a new wave emerges.

From a technical standpoint, the primary market is dominated by bears if the price is kept below the cloud. Due to the RSI being in the oversold zone, we suggest waiting for the price to show some correction before joining the bear market. With the price below the mentioned resistance areas, the 23.6% Fibonacci support could be the next target.

The price must flip and stabilize itself above the cloud for the bear market to be deemed invalid.​

 

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U.S. Oil Analysis: From Record Highs to Market Corrections​

Solid ECN – U.S. Oil hit its highest price in 2024, reaching $83 per barrel. This coincides with the upper band of the bullish flag, leading to a dip in today's trading session, with prices falling to $81.8 per barrel. The RSI indicator is at 70, while the Awesome Oscillator signals bullish.

It's important to remember that all technical tools are lagging, meaning they reflect market movement with a delay and depend on the chosen analysis timeframe.

Looking at the U.S. Oil 4-hour chart, the $80 area remains untested, and currently, the market seems overbought, although the RSI indicator has not yet reached the overbought zone.

From a technical standpoint, as the price aligns with the upper band of the flag, we anticipate a decline to the 50% Fibonacci support, followed by the $80 mark. Traders should monitor these levels for buying signals, particularly for the appearance of a hammer, bullish engulfing, or doji candlestick pattern near the resistance levels mentioned.

The Oil market will remain bullish if prices stay above the EMA 50. A dip below this moving average would invalidate the bull market.​

 

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Bitcoin's March 2024 Rebound: Analyzing the Latest Price Movements​

Solid ECN – Bitcoin bounced from its March 2024 low, the $60,700 mark, in yesterday's trading session, Tuesday.

As of this writing, the BTCUSD pair trades at about $67,700, slightly below the Ichimoku Cloud. The 4-hour chart shows that digital gold is trying to stabilize the price above the EMA 50, while the Awesome Oscillator and the RSI have flipped above their signal lines. Therefore, the technical indicators are bullish, but the Bitcoin bulls face the $68,900 barrier to overcome if they wish the price to surge higher.

From a technical standpoint, the downtrend will likely extend if the price stabilizes itself below the EMA 50. This attempt hasn't been achieved so far in today's trading session. Therefore, watch the EMA 50 on the BTCUSD 4-hour chart.

Conversely, the uptrend would continue if bullish traders break the aforementioned barrier. In this scenario, the March higher high, $73,700, would be the initial target for the bull market.​

 

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NZDUSD Struggles at the Key 0.609 Mark​

Solid ECN – In today’s trading session, the NZDUSD currency pair has risen from the 0.602 resistance area and is currently testing the 50-day EMA at the 0.609 mark.

The Awesome Oscillator has predicted the uptick in the momentum of the New Zealand dollar, as evidenced by the divergence shown in the 4-hour chart. At the time of writing, the U.S. dollar drives the price towards the 0.606 resistance, which aligns with the lower high of March 4 and the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance.

From a technical perspective, the primary trend remains bearish as long as the pair continues to trade below the descending red trendline. In this scenario, the bear market is likely to persist, and a break below the 23.6% Fibonacci support could accelerate the downtrend.

However, if the NZDUSD stabilizes above the 50% Fibonacci resistance, it would invalidate the bear market.​

 

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GBPJPY: Potential Entry Points Amid AO Divergence​

Solid ECN – In the current trading session, the GBP has reached a new high of 193.5 against the Japanese Yen. This peak aligns with the upper band of the bullish flag. Notably, the RSI indicator is nearing the overbought zone and is declining below 70 as of writing. Alongside the RSI, the Awesome Oscillator signals a divergence, suggesting a new consolidation phase may be imminent.

Consequently, the GBPJPY price could drop to 191.3, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci support level, before initiating a new bullish wave.

These two levels offer a suitable entry point for participating in the bull market. Please be aware that the bull market will only be invalidated if the price stabilizes below the 50-day EMA.​

 

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EURUSD: Navigating the Bear Market and Identifying Entry Points​

Solid ECN – The European currency experienced a significant decline against the U.S. Dollar after failing to maintain its position above the Ichimoku cloud on March 21. The pair is currently trading around 1.081 and is nearing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, coinciding with the 1.079 support level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) still has room to enter the oversold territory, suggesting that the decline may continue, potentially dipping below the 30 level as the market approaches the Fibonacci level.

From a technical standpoint, we are currently in a bear market. However, the 23.6% Fibonacci support level may provide a good entry point for bullish traders looking to capitalize on a potential pullback. The rebound is anticipated to start around the 1.079 level and extend to 1.083.

We recommend closely monitoring the EURUSD price action, examining candlestick patterns near the Fibonacci level mentioned above, and adjusting trading strategies accordingly.​

 

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USDJPY: November 2023 Highs Revisited, Consolidation Ahead?​

Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar has reached the November 2023 high against the Japanese Yen, hitting the 151.9 mark for the second time this week. However, this time, a long wick candlestick pattern has emerged on the USDJPY 4-hour chart.

Additionally, the Awesome Oscillator shows a divergence in its bars, which could signal an imminent consolidation phase. This could drive the price down to the 150.2 mark, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci support level, which the 50 EMA supports. These levels provide favorable entry points for retail traders looking to join the primary upward trend.

Conversely, the 151.8 hard resistance level must be breached for the uptrend to continue.​

 

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Understanding the EURUSD's Latest Pullback​

Solid ECN — The Euro experienced a pullback from 1.08, aligning with the 23.6% Fibonacci support level against the U.S. dollar. The Envelopes' indicator bands, with a 0.5 deviation, further support this resistance level. As of this writing, the EUR/USD pair is testing the 50 EMA, approximately at 1.0863, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance level.

Interestingly, the 4-hour chart has formed a long-wick candlestick pattern, which could be interpreted as the end of the consolidation phase, suggesting that the market might continue its downward momentum. On the other hand, the technical indicators appear bullish, with the RSI crossing above 50 and the Awesome Oscillator bars turning green and surpassing the signal level.

From a technical standpoint, for the uptick momentum to continue, the bulls must close and stabilize the price above the 1.086 resistance and the 50 EMA. In this scenario, the bullish wave will likely extend and could test the 50% Fibonacci level.

Conversely, failing to close above the abovementioned level could result in the continuation of the bear market, potentially dropping beyond the 23.6% level and testing the descending trendline marked in red.​

 

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AUDUSD's Technical Outlook: Pullback Opportunities in Sight​

In today's market, the Australian dollar is losing value compared to the U.S. Dollar. The exchange rate fell below the 0.6503 support level, and it’s currently trading around 0.6493 after a slight recovery from 0.6475.

Despite the bearish trend, the Awesome Oscillator indicates a divergence, suggesting we might soon enter a consolidation phase. This means the AUD/USD pair could temporarily rise, possibly retesting the 0.6503 level and then the 50 EMA, before continuing its downward trajectory.

Technically speaking, the AUD/USD is experiencing a bear market, but there's a chance for a short-term pullback because the Awesome Oscillator is showing divergence. The levels around 0.6503 and 0.6504 could offer good opportunities for those looking to enter the market with this bearish trend in mind.

However, should the pair close above and find stability over the Ichimoku cloud, it would challenge the current bearish outlook and potentially shift the market sentiment.​

 

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How to Trade the NZD/USD Pullback: Insights from the Awesome Oscillator​

The NZD/USD currency pair is in a bear market, trading below the 61.8% Fibonacci resistance level. The ADX indicator signifies that the trend is strong on the daily chart as it nears the 40 level. However, the Awesome Oscillator indicates divergence, suggesting that the New Zealand dollar will likely experience a pullback to the 0.602 resistance area.

Technically speaking, the next bearish target could be the 78.2% Fibonacci level, but the decline may continue after a consolidation phase. Therefore, the 0.602 level can provide a decent entry point for joining the sellers in the NZD/USD market.​

 

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Navigating the Bear Market: Entry Points for EUR/USD Traders​

Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar is stabilizing below the 38.2% Fibonacci level against the European currency today, Monday, April 1st, 2024.

The divergence signaled by the Awesome Oscillator could indicate a potential consolidation phase on the horizon.

From a technical perspective, the primary trend for EUR/USD is bearish. The pair will likely regain some of its losses from last week by rising to the 50% Fibonacci level, which coincides with the EMA 50. This resistance level could provide a suitable entry point for retail traders looking to join the bear market.

Conversely, the bear market should be invalidated if the pair stabilizes above the Ichimoku Cloud.​

 

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GBPUSD: New Trends and Bearish Targets Unveiled​

Solid ECN — The GBPUSD traded within a narrow range last week. The ADX indicator, hovering above the 25 level, suggests a new trend is likely on the horizon. Since the U.S. Dollar broke through the 50% Fibonacci resistance level, it appears that the downtrend that began in early March is set to continue.

The next bearish target is expected to be the flag's lower band, followed by the 38.2% Fibonacci support level.​

Please note that the bear market will be invalidated if the price rises above the Ichimoku Cloud.

 

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Bitcoin Tests the Bullish Trendline for Next Moves​

Bitcoin's price dipped to as low as $65,796 in today's trading session against the U.S. dollar. As of this writing, the pair is testing the ascending trendline highlighted in red. The technical indicators are not providing valuable information now, so we focus on price action analysis.

From a technical perspective, the trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above the red trendline. However, if bears push and maintain the BTC/USD price below this trendline, the dip could extend further, with the next bearish target potentially being the $68,000 resistance level.​

 

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USDCNH Bullish Trend Analysis: Key Levels to Watch​

Solid ECN – The U.S. Dollar has been in an uptrend since mid-December 2023 against the Chinese Yuan. As of this writing, the USDCNH pair trades at about 7.26, slightly above the 61.8% Fibonacci support level and the 7.23 higher low.

The technical indicators are bullish. The RSI hovers above the median line and the Awesome Oscillator bars are green and above the signal line.

From a technical standpoint, the pair is in a bull market, with 7.23 acting as support. Therefore, while the price holds above this level, the next bullish target could be the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level.

Conversely, if the USDCNH price dips below the 7.23 support, the decline is likely to extend to the lower band of the bullish flag, which is in conjunction with the Ichimoku Cloud. Please note that the trend remains bullish as long as the pair ranges above the cloud.​

 

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USD/JPY Eyes Key 151.9 Resistance Level​

The U.S. Dollar trades slightly lower than the 151.9 mark against the Japanese yen in today's trading session. The pair has been ranging below this area for two weeks now, and the trend hasn't developed any significant moves lately.

However, bullish traders are keen to see the pair break above the 151.9 ceiling, which could lead to the U.S. price experiencing another jump against the Japanese currency.

Therefore, from a technical standpoint, the primary trend is bullish while the pair hovers above the 23.6% Fibonacci support level. The uptrend will continue if the bulls break above the resistance level, the 151.9 mark.​

 

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Navigating Bitcoin's Consolidation Phase​

Solid ECN – The Bitcoin price dipped below the $65,796 resistance level below the ascending trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud. Concurrently, the RSI indicator entered the overbought area, and as a result, the BTCUSD pair is testing the previously broken trendline at the time of writing.

From a technical standpoint, the bullish market has paused, and we are entering a consolidation phase likely to extend to the $68,000 resistance area.​

 

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Bearish Trend in AUD/USD: Key Indicators and Price Targets​

Solid ECN – The momentum of the Australian dollar against the U.S. Dollar has paused in today's trading session. As of this writing, the AUD/USD pair is testing the EMA 50 at about 0.651, which coincides with the Ichimoku Cloud.

The 4-hour chart has formed a Doji candlestick pattern, which could be interpreted as a sign of a trend reversal or a halt to the current uptick in momentum.

From a technical standpoint, as long as the AUD/USD pair trades below the cloud, the primary trend remains bearish. In this scenario, the next target will likely be March's lowest price, the 0.647 mark. Please note that if the Standard Deviation indicator rises above the 0.002 level, the pace of the downtrend will escalate.

On the flip side, the bear market should be invalidated if the price of the Australian dollar closes and stabilizes above the 0.6538 resistance mark. In this case, the rise will likely extend and aim for the upper band of the flag.​

 

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AUDUSD Climbs Higher: A Look into the Bullish Trend​

Solid ECN – Yesterday, the Australian dollar saw a significant rise against the U.S. dollar. This increase in value started when it surpassed the EMA 50 and reached 0.6524, marked by a large bullish candle. Following this, there were four more strong bullish candles, pushing the price beyond the Envelopes band, suggesting the market was in an overbought state. This was further supported by the RSI indicator moving above 70.

Today, the market is correcting itself slightly after reaching a high of 0.661 on Thursday. Currently, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.657, still above the 50% Fibonacci support level, and maintaining its position over the Ichimoku Cloud. Despite technical indicators showing a bearish trend, the overall outlook remains bullish as long as the price stays above the cloud and the EMA 50.

The AUD/USD price might climb further to challenge the 78.6% Fibonacci resistance level at 0.6626, moving towards the top of the bullish channel shown in red on the 4-hour chart for AUD/USD.

However, if the price falls below the EMA 50 or the 38.2% Fibonacci support level at 0.5548, this would signal an end to the bullish trend.​