AceTraderFx: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 07: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
07 Jun 2018 03:10GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1792.. Euro stands tall in Asian trading and briefly penetrated Wed's 1.1796 high to a fresh 2-week top of 1.1800 after meeting renewed earlier in Australia at 1.1773.

The fact that price has maintained a firm undertone ahead of Tokyo lunch break suggests further gain would be seen in European trading as traders continued to cover their recent short positions after yesterday's hawkish comments by 4 ECB Board members : ECB's Praet, Knot, Weidmann and Hansson who were telling us an announcement of QE exit is most likely at next Thursday's ECB meeting.
Therefore, euro is likely ratchet higher on the back of this hawkish expectation and buying on dips is the way to go.
Bids have been raised to 1.1780-70 with stops below 1.1760.
Some offers are tipped at 1.1800/10 with stops reported above res at 1.1830.

Although no speeches by ECB officials are scheduled today, we have a slew of euro area eco. data starting with German industrial orders, France's trade data, Italy's retail sales and EU's GDP.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 08: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
08 Jun 2018 03:10GMT

USD/JPY - 109.76.. Dlr remained on the back foot in choppy European trading on Thursday and later tumbled from 110.09 ahead of New York open to as low as 109.49 in New York afternoon as sharp fall in U.S. yields (benchmark 10-year yield dropped from 2.9938% to 2.884%) led to broad-based yen buying.

Although the pair staged a rebound to 109.85 in early Asian trading as U.S. yields recovered, as the decline from Wed's 2-week high at 110.26 to 109.49 yesterday signals recent cross-inspired upmove has made a top, consolidation with downside bias is seen as investors are expected to turn to safe-haven yen and the Swiss franc ahead of the 2-day G7 meeting in Canada later today where U.S. Trump will be fighting with other G7 leaders after imposing U.S. trade tariffs on steel and aluminium.
Therefore, selling dlr (or buying the yen) on recovery is the way to go (our intra-day and daily strategies are both holding short positions).
Offers are tipped at 109.85/95 with stops above 110.00, more stops are reported above 110.30.
Some bids are noted at 109.60-50 with stops below 109.30.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light with wholesale inventories and wholesale sales being the only 2nd-tier data due out at 14:00GMT, As mentioned above, all eyes are on the G7 esp. on wordings of the G7 communique.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
11 Jun 2018 03:10GMT

USD/JPY - 109.68.. Dlr climbed in hectic Asian trading as fear of trade war after tense G7 meeting and U.S/Canada spat triggered safe-have buying of yen at New Zealand open, the pair initially fell to 109.23 before ratcheting higher, price later rose to 109.73 ahead of Tokyo lunch break on buying in eur/yen and gain to U.S. yields.

Intra-day cross-inspired strg bounce suggests decline from last week's high at 110.26 (Wednesday) has made a temp. low at 109.20 on Friday and choppy sideways swings are in store, however, as long as res at 109.95 (Friday high) holds, consolidation with downside bias remains.
Offers are tipped at 109.70/80 with stops above 109.90.
Bids are noted at 109.0-20 with stop below there, more stops are touted below 109.00.

No U.S. eco. data is due out as market is awaiting 2-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday and market is bracing for another quarter-point rate hike on Wednesday, so U.S. eco. data will be overlooked until rate decision is announced.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 12: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
12 Jun 2018 03:10GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1765.. Euro pares intra-day losses as initial rally in dlr/yen in Australia led to broad-based usd's strength, price fell from 1.1785 (AUS) to as low as 1.1741 in early Asian trading after tripping stops below 1.1775 (Monday's New York low), however, buying interest later emerged and euro edged higher back to 1.1770 ahead of Tokyo lunch break.

Although yesterday's decline from 1.1821 to 1.1741 in Asian on Tuesday suggests further choppy trading below last Thursday's 3-week high at 1.1840 would continue, as long as 1.1727 (Friday's reaction low) holds, the volatile trading from 1.1840 is possibly unfolding into a triangle pattern, suggesting recent upmove wud resume after present consolidation is over.
Therefore, buying euro on dips is favoured (our daily has entered long on intra-day decline.
Bids are noted at 1.1745-35 with stops below 1.1720.
Offers are tipped at 1.1775/85 with some stops above 1.1800, more stops are reported above 1.1840.

On the eco. calendar, pay attention to release of Germany's ZEW economic sentiment n current conditions as well as EU's ZEW economic sentiment, all will come out at 09:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Jun 2018 03:10GMT

USD/JPY - 110.58.. Dlr stands tall in Asian trading after climbing above yesterday's 110.49 high to a 3-week top of 110.61 due to usd's broad-based strength which began in New York session on Tuesday as investors were buying the greenback ahead of FOMC's rate decision where the Fed is expected to make another quarter-point rate hike at the end of its 2-day meeting at 18:00GMT.

Although the Fed is widely expected to raise its key interest rate, usd will climb further if the accompanied statement and Fed's dot plot point to 2 more rate increases later this year. Also, if Fed Chairman J. Powell sounds hawkish at the post-FOMC press conference, dlr would climb further.
For now, bids have been raised to 110.50-40 with stops below 110.10.
Offers are tipped at 110.60/70 with stop above 110.80 and more above 111.00.

Ahead of FOMC announcement, U.S. will release MBA mortgage applications, May final PPI and core May PPI.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 14: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
14 Jun 2018 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1793.. The single currency stand tall in subdued Asian trading following o/n impressive rally in post-FOMC New York from 1.1726 to 1.1801, then marginally higher to 1.1805 ahead of Asian open before easing on profit taking.

As market has more or less brushed off Fed's widely rate hike and hawkish rate outlook for 2 more rate increased this year n all eyes are on today's special ECB's live meeting in Riga, Latvia where traders are awaiting QE exit (tapering) from the horse's (ECB President Draghi's) mouth, if he explicitly announcement QE tapering, then euro will rally, if not, the single currency will tank as market is going into the ECB meeting 'long'.
For now, order book is pretty thin after FOMC, bids are noted at 1.1780-60 area and more below with stops touted below 1.1720.
Offers are tipped at 1.1810/20 with stops reported above 1.1840/50.

Ahead of ECB rate decision, we have Germany's final CPI and HICP n then France's CPI. French MinFin Le Maire will speak in Paris at 06:15GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 15: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
15 Jun 2018 02:55GMT

USD/JPY - 110.56.. Dlr continues to trade in familiar territory but not so for other G7 counterparts where prices have moved one or 2 big figures lower vs the usd in Asia today as compared to their rates 24 hours ago as intra-day selloff in the eur/usd triggered broad-based usd buying in hectic New York trading.

Despite extending decline from this week's 110.85 high (Wednesday) to session lows of 109.92 due to usd's weakness on falling U.S. Treasury yields in early European trading, renewed buying interest lifted the pair n subsequent eur/usd-led rally in post-ECB helped price to hit intra-day high at 110.69 before stabilising.

Although yesterday's gain to 110.69 suggests pullback from Wednesday's 3-week peak at 110.85 has ended, safe-haven buying in the yen due to renewed U.S./China trade tensions (see early MMN) should prevent strong rise and reckon upside would falter below May's top at 111.40. Expect muted reaction to widely anticipated unchanged BoJ's rate n monetary policy decision where announcement usually comes during Tokyo lunch break as market awaits BoJ Governor post-BOJ meeting presser at 06:30GMT.
For now, offers are tipped at 110.70/80 with stop above 110.85 and more above 111.00.
Bids are noted at 110.50-40 and more below with stops reported below 109.90.

T.G.I.F., U.S. will later release New York Fed mfg index, industrial prod., capacity utilization, mfg output and University of Michigan consumer confidence. Dallas Fed President Kapan will be speaking at 17:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 19: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
19 Jun 2018 03:10GMT

USD/JPY - 109.88.. Although dlr traded narrowly in Australia after swinging sideways in subdued New York afternoon session on Monday, comment by Trump ahead of Tokyo open who had threatened to add another $ 200 bln of tariff on Chinese goods triggered broad-based buying of yen (the safe-haven Swiss franc also gained in tandem with yen), price fell from 110.58 (AUS) to 110.02 at Tokyo open.

The pair then hit intra-day low of 109.80 after China said will 'fight back firmly' if U.S. published additional tariffs list.

Dlr's intra-day break of Monday's 110.30 low to 109.80 confirms recent upmove has made a temp. top at yesterday's 3-week peak at 110.90 and choppy trading with downside bias is in store, so selling the pair on recovery for stronger correction to 109.48/52 is favoured.
Offers have been lowered to 110.10/20 with some stops above 110.30.
Bids are noted at 109.80-70 with stops below 109.45.

On the data front, U.S. will release housing starts, building permits and Redbook sales. St Louis Fed President Bullard will speak at ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal at 11:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 20: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Jun 2018 02:30GMT

USD/JPY - 110.09.. Dlr pares yesterday's selloff from 110.58 (AUS) to a 1-week low of 109.55 due to active safe-haven yen buying on escalation of U.S./China trade tensions, however, rebound in U.S. yields together with recovery in U.S. stocks helped price to stage a short-covering rose to 110.10 in New York afternoon, the pair later edged higher to 110.14 ahead of Tokyo open.

Looks like said Tuesday's 109.55 low would hold from here n bring choppy sideways trading, however, market woe on global trade tensions should prevent strong gain, so dlr should find respite in Asia but if European stocks are in the black, another round of yen-buying may emerge and knock dlr lower.
Offers are tipped at 110.10/20 with stops above 110.30, some bids are noted at 109.80-70 with stop reported below 109.50.

U.S. eco. calendar is very light with existing home sales being the only data due out at 14:00GMT.
Pay attention to speeches by Fed officials starting with Fed chairman J. Powell who will deliver speech at ECB Forum on Central Banking in Portugal at 13:30GMT, then St. Louis Fed's Bullard also at 13:30GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 21: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
21 Jun 2018 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1566.. The single currency trades narrowly but with a soft bias in Asia as intra-day rise in usd/yen has led to broad-based usd's strength.

Despite y'day's brief dip to session lows of 1.1537 in European morning on euro-negative comments by ECB's Nowotny, buying interest abv Tue's 2-1/2 week trough at 1.1531 quickly lifted the pair n price ratcheted higher to 1.1600 in NY morning after midlly hawkish comments by ECB President Draghi, however, euro later pared intra-day gain n drifted lower in NY afternoon.

Although euro's rebound fm 1.1537 suggests choppy trading abv 1.1531 low wud continue, anticipated usd's broad-based strength shud pressure price, so selling euro on recovery is still favoured. Offer are tipped at 1.1580/90 n more abv with stops abv 1.1800. Bids are noted at 1.1540-30 with stop below 1.1510 (there is market chatter of option defence at 1.1500).

After the 3-day ECB Forum in Portugal which some heavy-weight speakers (cenbankers n senior officials))did cause a stir in the market. Today, we have Eurogroup meeting in Luxembourg where ECB's Draghi will participate in the meeting too.

On the eco. data front, France will kick off with business climate n later in NY morning, EU will release consumer confidence. Pls refer to our EI page for times of speeches by key ECB officials.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 22: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
22 Jun 2018 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1607.. The single currency trade narrowly with a steady bias is subdued Asian trading after yesterday's cable-led rally from an 11-month trough at 1.1509 to as high as 1.1634 in New York morning on active short covering.

Although euro met renewed selling in European morning on Thursday n briefly broke May's 1.1510 low, indicated option defence at 1.1500 contained weakness and intra-day jump in sterling triggered rally in euro, this in turn led to broad-based usd's weakness.

Although it is too soon to call for Medium Term decline from 1.2555 (February) has made a low at 1.1509 yesterday, one can expect choppy trading avc 1.1509 in next few days with an upside bias, so buying euro on dips for further gain is favoured as the path of least res is to the upside.
Bids are noted at 1.1595-85 and more below with some stops below 1.1550.
Offers are tipped at 1.1630/40 with stops above 1.1650 with more stops touted above 1.1700.

Today is PMI day in the euro zone, France will kick off with Markit mfg and services PMIs, then the same from Germany and the EU.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Jun 2018 03:30GMT

USD/JPY - 109.53.. Dlr opened lower below Friday's 109.80 low to 109.75 in New Zealand and quickly bounced back to 110.03. However, the pair tumbled at Tokyo open on WSJ report news report U.S. planned to limit Chinese investment in U.S. technology firms, the news led of broad-based safe-haven buying on renewed market jitters of U.S. protectionism, price penetrated 109.75 to 109.46 after tripping stops below last week's low at 109.55.

Although price has stabilised ahead of Tokyo lunch break, the lack of intra-day short-covering rebound suggests sellers are 'in control', so selling dlr on recovery is the way to go and stops below daily sup at 109.20 are now in focus.
Offers have been lowered to 109.75/85 n more above with stops above 110.00/05.

U.S. will release a slew of second-tier data starting with building permits, Chicago Fed national activity index, new home sales and Dallas Fed mfg business index. BoJ member Sakurai will speak at an international forum in Italy at 12:15GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 26: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
26 Jun 2018 10:30GMT

GBP/USD - 1.3232... Although the British pound edged up to session high at 1.3292 in Asia, price pared its gains and retreated to 1.3263 at European open.
Intra-day decline accelerated in Europe and hit session lows at 1.3207 in European morning on dovish comments from BoE's incoming rate-setter Haskel (see prev. MMN) before stabilising.

Offers are now seen at 1.3240/50 and more above at 1.3260/70 with stops building up above there.
Whilst initial bids are noted at 1.3150/60, suggesting choppy trading with downside bias remains.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 27: Dollar gains broadly on renewed risk appetite

Market Review - 26/06/2018 15:47 All times in GMT

The greenback snapped its recent losing streak and staged a rebound against majority of its peers on Tuesday as risk sentiment returns and investors booked profits from dollar's recent decline, which was triggered by trade tensions. Dollar also gained on expectation that Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates this year.

Versus the Japanese yen, although dollar initially dropped to an intra-day low at 109.37 in Asian morning, price erased intra-day losses and gained to 109.80 in European morning. Despite a brief retreat to 109.55 at New York open, the greenback rose to session highs at 110.20 in New York morning on easing risk aversion before stabilising.

Although the single currency extended its recent rise and hit a fresh 10-day high at 1.1720 in Asian morning, price erased intra-day gains and tumbled in tandem with sterling to 1.1652 in Europe, then ratcheted lower to a session lows at 1.1635 in New York morning on rising Italy bond yields as well as dollar's broad-based strength before recovering to 1.1653 in New York afternoon.

The British pound also edged up in tandem with euro to session highs at 1.3292 in Asian morning before tumbling to an intra-day low at 1.3207 in European morning on dovish comments from incoming Bank of England rate-setter Haskel before rebounding to 1.3255 at New York open. However, cable met renewed selling there and fell to session lows at 1.3192. Price last traded at 1.3238 near the close.

BoE's Haskel said 'BoE has scope to cut rates slightly lower in case of economic downturn, cud do more QE if financial mkts dislocated; many influential economists argue that underemployment responsible for weak wage growth; there may be much more slack in UK economy than we think; more slack in economy wud weaken case for interest rate rise.'

In other news, ECB's De Guindos said 'the fundamentals remain in place for continued solid n broad-based economic growth; benign mkt reaction following the announcement of our decision supports the appropriateness of our current assessment; confident that the sustained convergence of inflation twds our inflation aim will continue in the period ahead.'

On the data front, the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence decreased to 126.4 this month, compared to a reading of 127.6 forecast by economists. May's reading was revised up to 128.8 from the initial 128.0.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jun 28: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -DAILY GBP/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
28 Jun 2018 03:00GMT

DAILY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - 1.3118
Cable's selloff on dlr's broad-based rally in New York yesterday suggests correction from last Thursday's 7-month trough at 1.3102 has ended at 1.3315 (Friday) and Medium Term decline would head to 1.3055/65, however, reckon 1.3000/10 should remain intact this week.

Lower short entry to 1.3145 for this move and only above 1.3192 risks another strong bounce towards 1.3256.

Data to be released on Thursday:
Japan retail sales, Germany GfK consumer sentiment, import prices, CPI, HICP, Italy CPI, CPI (EU norm), EU business climate, economic sentiment, industrial sentiment, services sentiment, consumer confidence.
U.S. GDP, PCE prices, initial jobless claims, KC Fed manufacturing index.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 03: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
03 Jul 2018 03:10GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1628.. Despite yesterday's intra-day selloff from 1.1698 (New Zealand) to as low as 1.1591 in New York morning due to internal dispute of the German coalition party over EU migration deal, euro regained traction in late New York trade after Christian Social Union (CSU) party reached a deal with Merkel's ruling Christian Democrats (CDU) over illegal immigration and the early resignation threat by CSU leader Seehofer was withdrawn.

The euro rebounded to 1.1647 near New York close and despite intra-day dip to 1.1621 due to a brief jump in usd/yen, renewed buying quickly emerged and lifted the pair, suggesting consolidation with upside bias is in store.

Friday's rally to 1.1690 due to a EU migration deal and present end of German coalition feud over migration bodes well for the euro to re-test 1.1697 after consolidation, so trading from long side is favoured and stops above last week's high at 1.1720 (reaction high from June's 11-month low at 1.1509) is now in focus.
Bids are noted at 1.1620-10 and more below with stops touted below 1.1590.
Offers are tipped at 1.1550/60 with stops above 1.1700.

Eur area countries will release a slew of data starting with France's budget balance, EU PPI and retail sales. ECB Chief Economist Praet will speak at a banking conference in Romania at 16:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 04: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
04 Jul 2018 03:10GMT

USD/JPY - 110.34.. The pair remained on the back foot in Tokyo trading. Despite moving narrowly in Australia following yesterday's decline from a 5-week high of 111.14 to 110.51 (New York low), renewed selling emerged at 110.61 knocked price lower below said Tuesday's bottom, price hit intra-day low of 110.28 before stabilising.

Some traders attributed to intra-day decline on falling U.S. yields as well as renewed usd's weakness in Asia following o/n decline in New York session, however, as broad outlook remains consolidation, steep fall is not envisaged.
For now, bids are noted at 110.30-20 and more below with stops reported below 109.95.
Offers are tipped at 110.50/60 with stops above 110.75.

U.S. markets are closed for Independence Day holiday, so no U.S. eco. data is due out and trading may thin out near European close.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 05: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
05 Jul 2018 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - 110.40.. Despite staging a rebound at Tokyo open after moving very narrowly in holiday-thinned N. American trading, the pair met renewed selling at 110.62 (just one tick above Wednesday's high in Australia) and fell back to 110.30, suggesting daily downside bias remains for re-test of yesterday's low at 110.28, break there would extend early fall from Tuesday's 5-week peak at 111.14 towards next chart obj. at 109.97.

Therefore, trading from short side is the way to go, offers are tipped at 110.60/65 with some stops above 110.80, a mixture of bids and stops is touted at 110.30-25 and more stops have been reported below 109.95.

The U.S, market will reopen after yesterday's Independence Day closure, on the data front, we have the important ADP private payrolls, weekly jobless claims, Markit services PMI, ISM non-mfg PMI and last but not the least, release of previous FOMC meetings at 18:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 06: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -EUR/USD

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
06 Jul 2018 03:00GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1681.. The single currency pared yesterday's impressive gain n trades narrowly but with a soft bias is relatively subdued Asian morning.

Despite yesterday's jump from 1.1650 to 1.1711 after robust German data, then to session highs of 1.1720 after soft U.S. ADP private payrolls, failure to penetrate this res (last week's high) prompted profit taking n price later weakened to 1.1673 after Fed minutes.
Price edged higher to 1.1697 at Asian open but only to move lower again, suggesting choppy trading below 1.1720 would continue until release of U.S. NFP.
Offers are tipped at 1.1710/20 with stops reported above there.
Bids are noted at 1.1675/70 and more below with stops below 1.1650.

On the data front, Germany will kick off with industrial output, then France's current account, trade balnce and import & export prices, then finally, Italy will release retail sales. ECB's Nouy will speak in Austria at 10:00GMT.

 

[AceTRaderForex]

AceTraderFx Jul 09: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views -USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
09 Jul 2018 03:00GMT

USD/JPY - 110.48.. Dlr moved narrowly in subdued Tokyo morning following intra-day decline frm 110.68 to 110.38 in post-NFP New York morning.

Although price initially weakened to 110.32 in NZ today, renewed buying above last week's 110.28 low (Wednesday) lifted the pair to 110.52, suggesting sideways trading would continue until European open.
As usd remains on the back foot in Asia, downside bias remains and stops below 110.25 are now in focus.
Offers are tipped at 110.50/30 with stops above 110.80.
Bids are noted at 110.35-30 with stops below 110.25.

After Friday's release of key U.S. jobs reports, no economic data is due out today.