Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

EURUSD

Italy's recent announcement of a windfall tax targeting its lenders led to a sharp decline in banking stocks. However, the situation took a turn on Wednesday after the government clarified that the 40% tax wouldn't exceed 0.1% of the bank's total assets. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is set to release its economic bulletin, and Italy is scheduled to publish the final July inflation figures.
Currently, market participants are in a state of anticipation, awaiting the release of the US July Consumer Price Index report on Thursday. The anticipated annual CPI rate is 3.3%, up from June's 3%. Additionally, the weekly Jobless Claims report is also on the horizon. These figures are highly anticipated and could potentially trigger significant movements in the market.
The EUR/USD price action indicates a double bottom, suggesting uncertainty regarding the current level and clustering of prices at this point. The upcoming support levels are situated at 1.0920 and 1.0850. Furthermore, the 100MA on the daily chart is providing support at the present levels.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The Financial Times reported UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's potential move to restrict investments in the Chinese tech sector, similar to Joe Biden's action. This is notable as Sunak seeks political support after recent by-election setbacks. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) indicated the UK's economy might recover to pre-pandemic levels by Q3 2024. NIESR also discussed recession risk, inflation expectations, and potential Bank of England actions. Market sentiment remains uncertain due to factors including US-China tension, global economic concerns, and central bank actions. Despite this, US stock futures and yields are improving, influenced by upcoming US data. The US Consumer Price Index's positive performance in July could ease concerns about the Federal Reserve's interest rate plans after disappointing Nonfarm Payrolls data.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2650 level and formed a pennant pattern while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be again the 1.2650.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

JPYUSD

Japan's wholesale inflation rate has persistently declined for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 3.6% currently, down from June's revised rate of 4.3%.
Surprising the markets, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has made a minor adjustment to the Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy. Although the adjustment was modest, it has raised awareness among market participants about the potential for FX intervention if the yen continues to weaken.
The release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) holds significance. A CPI figure lower than expected could apply pressure on the USD/JPY pair, while a higher reading might reignite interest in levels beyond 145.000. However, traders above this threshold remain concerned about the possibility of BoJ intervention.
USDJPY hovering around the 144.00 resistance level waiting for today's big data. The next resistance will be the 145.00 level while the support is at 143.50.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

XAUUSD

Gold traders will keep an eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) due later in the American session. The inflation figure is expected to rise from 3% to 3.3%, and the core inflation figure is expected to stay at 4.8%.
The recent commentary from Federal Reserve (Fed) speakers indicated that the Fed's stance has shifted from additional rate hikes to holding rates steady. The Philadelphia Fed president, Patrick Harker, stated that the central bank can leave interest rates where they are. Meanwhile, Atlanta Fed president Raphael Bostic states that no further rate hikes are necessary. Market players anticipated that the Fed would be less hawkish in the September meeting. The prospects of the end of the tightening policy by the Fed might cap the upside in the USD and could act as a tailwind for the XAU/USD.
That said, the concern about the economic slowdown in China exerts pressure on the gold price as China is the major gold consumer in the world. The Chinese inflation data on Wednesday showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoY fell 0.3% in July from 0% prior, and the market consensus anticipated a -0.4% decline. Meanwhile, the Producer Price Index (PPI) declined 4.4% YoY, compared to the 4.1% drop expected and a 5.4% decline prior.
Looking ahead, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will have a significant impact on the Federal Reserve's (Fed) future rate hike path and help investors determine the direction of XAU/USD
Gold continues to decline, following a bearish trend where the price is trading above the median line. The median line has been acting as a support level for the past three instances of lower lows in price movements.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1960	1953	1942	1931	1920	1900

DAX40

European shares began the session on a positive note, with luxury stocks leading the way. This was especially evident after China lifted its ban on group tours in the United States and other significant markets. The STOXX Europe Luxury (.STXLUXP) index saw a rise of 1.6%, and heavyweight LVMH (.LVMH) experienced a notable surge of up to 2.7% during early trading. Hoteliers and airlines, including IHG and Air France (AF), also saw gains. Additionally, insurers (.SXIP) showed strength following positive performance numbers from Allianz (ALV) and Zurich (ZURN), contributing to the 0.5% increase in the STOXX Europe 600 (SXXP).
Paris, where LVMH is headquartered, stood out with the CAC 40 (PX1) index rising by 1.1%. Real estate stocks (.SX86P) also performed well, marking an increase of 1.8%. However, Novo Nordisk (NOVO_B) experienced a 1% decline after a significant surge earlier in the week due to positive news about its Wegovy drug.
DAX is rebounding from the 15800-support level and is now facing the next challenge at the 16000 short-term resistance level. The long bullish trend is evident, but it is currently forming reversal patterns as the price range in the last 3 months indicates weakness in the current trend.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

Renewed concerns regarding the deepening crisis within China's property sector and its potential repercussions on the global economy prompted investors to seek safe havens during Monday's Asian trading hours. Despite initially being in negative territory earlier in the day, US stock index futures later stabilized during the European morning, which in turn provided support for the EUR/USD currency pair.
Looking ahead, the economic calendar does not include any data releases that might significantly influence the movement of EUR/USD throughout the rest of the day. Consequently, market participants will closely monitor Wall Street's performance to gauge whether there is a continued aversion to risk-sensitive assets.
Should the major US stock indexes open on a bearish note, this could potentially bolster the US Dollar (USD) and create challenges for EUR/USD to stage a substantial rebound.
Meanwhile, a report from Bloomberg earlier in the day highlighted the findings of a recent survey indicating that economists anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) to implement a further key rate increase in September. Nonetheless, this headline had minimal impact on the valuation of the euro.
The EUR/USD has entered a price range between the support at 1.0940 and the resistance level of 1.1040. The current price action might suggest a potential reversal based on the formed price pattern.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The UK's Office for National Statistics announced on Friday that the Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the UK expanded by an annual rate of 0.4% during the second quarter, surpassing market expectations of a 0.2% growth. Additional data from the UK revealed that both Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production exhibited positive growth, rising by 1.8% and 2.4% respectively on a monthly basis in June.
Although the immediate response from the market provided a boost in demand for Pound Sterling, the bearish start to trading in the UK's FTSE 100 Index tempered the currency's upward momentum. Concurrently, US stock index futures initially rose during the Asian session but later turned negative, underlining a sense of caution prevailing in the market.
The upcoming release of Producer Price Index (PPI) data from the US holds the potential to inject fresh momentum into the latter half of the trading day. Following the report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicating that both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Core CPI had increased by 0.2% on a monthly basis in July, the US Dollar displayed resilience against its counterparts. For the year-on-year comparison, the PPI is projected to rise by 0.7%. Unless there is a significant downside surprise, the USD might maintain its stability leading into the weekend, particularly if the main indexes of Wall Street begin trading in negative territory.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2650 level and formed a double bottom while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be again at 1.2650.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

USD/JPY bulls take a momentary pause at the highest level seen in a year, as market participants search for further indications to sustain the Yen pair's earlier climb towards refreshing the Year-To-Date (YTD) peak during the initial hours of Monday's European session. This situation underscores the impact of the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interventions in the bond market and the US Dollar's retreat, despite prevailing negative sentiment.
In line with this, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) offered an unlimited supply of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) with residual maturities of 5-10 years at a fixed rate early on Monday in Asia. This move by the Japanese central bank serves to temper the yields on crucial JGBs, thereby stabilizing the Japanese Yen (JPY) value.
Conversely, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retraces from its one-month high, reaching 102.95 at the present moment, as market participants continue their quest for further cues to extend the risk-averse sentiment that characterized the start of the week, even as concerns stemming from China diminish. Worth noting is the suspension of bond trading by China's Country Garden and the non-receipt of payments from a subsidiary of the Chinese conglomerate Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, both of which contribute to China's debt concerns. Additionally, Russia's announcement of equipping new nuclear submarines with hypersonic missiles and the ongoing US-China trade tensions further contribute to the prevailing risk-off sentiment.
The combination of these risk-averse headlines, along with the buoyant US Treasury bond yields and apprehensions surrounding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) commitment to its ultra-easy monetary policy, has propelled the USD/JPY price towards revisiting the YTD high at 145.25.
A potential intervention in the market by the Japanese central bank and official authorities might be necessary to prevent the yen from declining further. A breach of the current resistance level could lead to the 146.50 resistance level, while a retracement from the existing resistance level could drive the price toward the 144.00 support level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

Gold price (XAU/USD) continues to experience downward pressure, remaining at its monthly low following a four-week-long decline. This trend is driven by unsettling developments from China that are impacting market sentiment and bolstering demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. The prevailing risk-off sentiment is further fueled by geopolitical tensions involving Russia and the firming of US Treasury bond yields. These factors collectively contribute to the US Dollar Index (DXY) maintaining its strength, even as the Federal Reserve (Fed) faces impending policy shifts.
Importantly, the suspension of bond trading by China's Country Garden, along with the absence of payments from a subsidiary of the Chinese conglomerate Zhongzhi Enterprise Group, amplifies China's existing debt concerns. Furthermore, Russia's decision to equip new nuclear submarines with hypersonic missiles, coupled with the ongoing US-China trade dispute, adds to the overall risk-off atmosphere, negatively influencing the XAU/USD price.
On another front, the mostly optimistic indicators of US inflation contrast with the dovish expectations for interest rate futures, indicating that there may not be a Fed rate hike in September. This dynamic poses a challenge to the US Dollar as further information on US price pressures and the release of the Fed Minutes are awaited.
Gold is continuing its bearish trend and the next support level is around the 1900 area, which represents a significant confluence point.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1960	1953	1942	1931	1920	1900

DAX40

European stocks made marginal gains in early trading on Monday, with defensive sectors such as healthcare and telecoms leading the advance. However, concerns over China's troubled property sector led to declines in mining stocks, tempering the overall gains.
Healthcare stocks saw a 0.2% increase, driven by a 5.4% surge in Philips, which topped the STOXX 600 after Dutch investment firm Exor NV acquired a 15% stake in the company. Exor, in turn, experienced a marginal decline of 0.4%.
The telecoms sector index rose by 0.6%, supported by a 1.5% gain in Deutsche Telekom.
Despite these positive movements, the prevailing sentiment remained largely risk-averse. The European basic resources sector saw a 0.3% dip, while oil and gas stocks slipped by 0.5% due to lower prices of crude oil and base metals. These declines were influenced by heightened worries about China's property sector and a stronger US dollar.
China's top private property developer, Country Garden, announced a suspension of trading in its 11 onshore bonds, further contributing to the cautious atmosphere. Luxury giant LVMH, which has significant exposure to China, also experienced a slight 0.1% decline.
Eurozone bond yields experienced a slight increase, with Germany's benchmark 10-year government bond yield reaching a one-month high.
Indices in commodity-heavy European markets lagged, with the UK's FTSE 100 and Norway's Oslo SE All-Share Index each falling by 0.1%.
Additionally, geopolitical tensions were in focus following a Russian warship's firing of warning shots at a cargo ship in the Black Sea over the weekend.
This week, a range of economic data is scheduled for release, including a flash estimate of euro-zone second-quarter GDP data, updated Eurozone inflation figures, and British consumer price data.
Wall Street futures remained mostly unchanged after Friday's losses prompted by hotter-than-expected US economic data.
Another notable gainer in Europe was Siemens AG, which rose by 0.8% after Berenberg upgraded the German engineering and technology group from "hold" to "buy". DAX is rebounding from the 15800-support level and is now facing the next challenge at the 16000 short-term resistance level. The long bullish trend is evident, but it is currently forming reversal patterns as the price range in the last 3 months indicates weakness in the current trend.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD
The EUR/USD pair rebounded from its recent low of 1.0875, rising to around 1.0925, marking a 0.17% gain during the day. The upcoming US Retail Sales data is anticipated to cause volatility in the pair. Germany's Wholesale Price Index for July showed a slight increase from -2.9% to -2.8% YoY, below the expected -2.6%. The ECB's Economic Bulletin, however, suggests lingering uncertainty in Eurozone inflation and economic growth. Fed San Francisco President Mary C. Daly's remarks indicate a cautious stance on rate increases, influencing the Euro's upward potential and affecting EUR/USD. Market focus shifts to US Retail Sales, with expectations of a 0.4% MoM rise in July. There's a rising likelihood of a 25-basis point rate hike in the November Fed meeting. Additionally, upcoming events include Eurozone GDP Q2, Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices MoM for July, and the FOMC Minutes, which could provide further direction for the market.
The EUR/USD touched an important support level and formed a possible reversal pattern that the DXY is confirming too. The next resistance will be the 1.1000 level where also the upper parallel of the downtrend with the 100/200MA, making a solid confluence point.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The British Pound (GBP) experienced a consolidation breakout following a report from the United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics. The report revealed a significant increase in jobless benefits and substantial layoffs within the labor market. This led to the GBP/USD pair extending its upward movement due to a notable rise in the labor cost index. As a result, the possibility of more interest rate hikes from the Bank of England (BoE) is now on the table.
The Unemployment Rate reached a fresh nine-month high of 4.2%, highlighting the challenges in the UK's labor market. The report underscores the potential consequences of the BoE's aggressively tight interest rate policy. Notably, persistent inflation and layoffs are driven by labor shortages and elevated food prices.
The labor market's weak performance contrasts with a healthy growth rate. This shift prompts investors to turn their attention to July's inflation data, which is set to be released on Wednesday at 06:00 GMT. This data will likely shed light on the trajectory of inflation and its potential impact on the economy.
The GBP/USD found support at 1.2650 and formed a double bottom while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be again at 1.2650.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

The preliminary Q2 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for Japan exceeded expectations with a growth of 1.5% QoQ, compared to the anticipated 0.8% and the previous 0.7%. Additionally, Japan's Industrial Production rose to 2.4% MoM in June, surpassing the expected 2.0% and the previous data.
Japan's Economy Minister, Shigeyuki Goto, predicts a moderate economic recovery, but warns about the risks of a global slowdown and the impact of rising prices. Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki hinted at potential intervention from Tokyo, influencing USD/JPY prices, though without targeting a specific price level or favoring rapid fluctuations.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from a five-week peak, experiencing its first daily loss in four sessions, due to unfavorable inflation indications. The New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations dropped to 3.5% for July, its lowest point since April 2021. Despite this, the survey also indicated confidence in favorable labor market conditions and economic changes.
Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields fluctuated around the highest level since November 2022, at 4.20%. The mildly positive US and European stock futures contributed to positive sentiment in the market and impacted USD/JPY bullish movements.
USDJPY is going toward the resistance level of 146.50. The bullish trend seems strong but the possibility of an intervention by the BOJ seems more than ever possible.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
142.00	141.20	140.22	138.70	137.70	135.50

People’s Bank of China’s (PBoC) rate cut and a slew of downbeat China data suggesting more stimulus from the Dragon Nation also the yields on US bonds that are making new highs push for gold to touch a strong support level at the 1900 area.
US Retail Sales data for July, anticipated to show a 0.4% month-on-month increase compared to the previous 0.2%, will be crucial in gauging the interim direction of the gold price prior to the release of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest monetary policy meeting minutes on Wednesday. Most importantly, monitoring bond market movements will be essential for providing a clear guide.
Gold appears to be losing momentum around the current support area of 1900, and the possibility of a correction seems likely, especially since the DXY has reached a significant historical resistance level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1960	1953	1942	1931	1920	1900

DAX40

European stocks experienced a slight decline on Tuesday, driven by a drop in real estate shares due to increasing bond yields. However, this decrease was balanced by gains in the retail sector, particularly driven by Marks & Spencer from the UK, which raised its profit expectations.
The real estate sector (.SX86P), often influenced by bonds, saw a nearly 1% decline during early trading. Bond yields across Europe surged, notably with UK gilts (GB10YT=RR), reacting to data showing a substantial growth rate in basic wages in Britain, reaching a new record.
In positive news, British retailer Marks & Spencer (MKS) experienced an 8.4% increase, propelling it to the top of the STOXX 600 index, thanks to its improved profit outlook. Additionally, the broader retail index (.SXRP) saw a gain of 0.7%. Danish jewelry maker Pandora (PNDORA) also performed well, rising by 3.5% as it raised its full-year revenue outlook following second-quarter sales that exceeded analyst forecasts.
DAX is rebounding from the 15800-support level and is now facing the next challenge at the 16000 short-term resistance level. The long bullish trend is evident, but it is currently forming reversal patterns as the price range in the last 3 months indicates weakness in the current trend.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

The Eurozone is expected to release economic data on Wednesday, including preliminary Q2 GDP figures which are anticipated to show minimal growth of 0.2%, along with potentially negative industrial production data. Although economists are leaning towards a pause in European Central Bank rate hikes in September, concerns arise within the EU due to persistent inflation and concerning economic data from Germany, indicating a possible slowdown in Europe's largest economy. Concurrently, the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes are anticipated to attract attention as market participants seek deeper insights into the Fed's decision-making process. On Tuesday, U.S. retail sales unexpectedly surged, showcasing resilient consumer spending and strengthening the argument for continued Fed tightening. This viewpoint was further underscored by Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, who remarked that while inflation is declining, it remains elevated.
The EUR/USD touched an important support level and formed a possible reversal pattern that the DXY is confirming too.
The next resistance will be the 1.1000 level where also the upper parallel of the downtrend with the 100/200MA making a solid confluence point.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

In July, UK headline inflation experienced a significant decline to an annual rate of 6.8%. However, the core consumer price index remained steady, which could pose challenges for the Bank of England. This aligns with economist predictions gathered by Reuters, and it follows the cooler-than-anticipated figure of 7.9% in June. On a monthly basis, the headline CPI decreased by 0.4%, aligning closely with the consensus forecast of -0.5%.
Conversely, core inflation, which excludes volatile energy, food, alcohol, and tobacco prices, remained at 6.9%, unchanged from June, and slightly above the anticipated 6.8% consensus forecast.
The ILO Unemployment Rate in the UK increased to 4.2% over the three months leading up to June, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on Tuesday. This reading was worse than the market's expectation of 4%, following the 4% reported in May. Other aspects of the report indicated that wage inflation, as indicated by the change in the Average Earnings Excluding Bonus, reached 7.8% in June, compared to 7.5% in May. Average Earnings Including Bonuses surged by 8.2%, surpassing analysts' estimate of 7.3%.
These robust wage inflation figures led to a rise in UK gilt yields, reflecting the influence of hawkish Bank of England (BoE) predictions. At the current time, the 2-year UK gilt yield has risen to around 5.14% for the day.
The GBP/USD found support at 1.2650 and formed a double bottom while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be at 1.2650 again.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

Based on the initial Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q2 2023 released on Tuesday, Japan's economy expanded by 1.5% compared to the previous quarter, exceeding the anticipated 0.8% and the earlier 0.7%. Meanwhile, the annualized GDP growth reached 6.0%, surpassing the estimated 3.1% and the prior 2.7%. Japan's Economy Minister, Shigeyuki Goto, projected a gradual economic rebound, while also stressing the need to monitor the risk of a global downturn and rising prices. Goto exhibited a flexible approach to economic and price concerns.
The primary factor contributing to the weakening of the Yen is the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan. However, the potential belief that US interest rates have peaked could limit the upside potential of the US Dollar. Additionally, traders are adopting a cautious stance due to concerns about possible intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in the foreign exchange market. It's noteworthy that the BoJ engaged in significant dollar selling in September and October last year, as the Japanese Yen approached the 145 level.
Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki emphasized on Tuesday that sudden and rapid currency movements are undesirable. He stated that the government is prepared to respond appropriately, but didn't specify any particular intervention levels, according to Reuters.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD
The price of gold (XAU/USD) has rebounded from its lowest level since late June, driven by anticipation of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy meeting minutes. This recovery is supported by cautious optimism in the market due to expectations of more stimulus from China and a potential end to the Fed's tightening cycle, influenced by mixed recent US data. Notably, the lack of action by major central banks in recent days indicates a potential conclusion to the rate-hike cycle, providing a foundation for the XAU/USD price. This is especially true with China's willingness for additional stimulus and resilient Indian statistics.
However, positive US Retail Sales and disappointing Chinese data, coupled with robust US Treasury bond yields, pressured the gold price to a multi-day low recently. The XAU/USD was also influenced by the underwhelming performance of riskier assets like equities, Antipodeans, and commodities.
Looking ahead, the market will closely observe US Industrial Production for July and the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) latest Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes for guidance. It's important to consider that any indications of further rate hikes by the US central bank could potentially push the quote below the key support level of $1,900. Gold appears to be losing momentum around the current support area of 1900, and the possibility of a correction seems likely, especially since the DXY has reached a significant historical resistance level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1960	1953	1942	1931	1920	1900

DAX40

European stocks started the day on a downturn, primarily due to China-exposed mining companies experiencing losses following underwhelming economic data from Beijing. Additionally, UK stocks were under pressure due to a core inflation print that exceeded expectations.
The UK's prominent FTSE 100 index (UK100) experienced a 0.3% decrease after data revealed that British inflation slowed in July as anticipated, marking its lowest annual rate since February 2022. However, signs of pressure remained apparent in core and service prices.
The European mining sector (SXPP) saw a decline of 0.8% as traders evaluated the likelihood of a subdued economic recovery in China, a major consumer of metals.
China's new home prices fell for the first time this year in July, continuing a series of discouraging economic indicators.
Shares of Swiss eye-care company Alcon (ALC) rose by 1.5% after the company improved its full-year outlook for net sales and core diluted earnings per share.
Meanwhile, Admiral Group (ADM), a British insurer covering automobiles and homes, witnessed a 4.6% increase in its stock value following a slight uptick in first-half pre-tax profit.
DAX is rebounding from the 15800-support level and is now facing the next challenge at the 16000 short-term resistance level. The long bullish trend is evident, but it is currently forming reversal patterns as the price range in the last 3 months indicates weakness in the current trend.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

The DXY is testing July's highs around 103.50, boosted by higher US Treasury yields and cautious market sentiment. The 10-year yield has climbed to 4.27%, while the 2-year yield hovers just below 5%. US data showed a mixed performance, and on Thursday, we expect the release of Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed report.
According to the FOMC minutes, two members advocated for maintaining rates during the July meeting, despite the central bank's decision to raise rates to 5.25% - 5.50%, the highest since 2001. Some FOMC participants voiced concerns about the potential consequences of further tightening. Overall, the message seems to align with the Fed's intention to keep rates steady in the upcoming gatherings. Subsequent to the release of the minutes, the US Dollar resumed its upward momentum.
Although the US Dollar has risen consecutively for several days, its momentum remains robust. The deterioration of market sentiment also contributes to the increased demand for the Greenback. If this trend persists, it could lead to additional losses for the EUR/USD pair.
The EURUSD is heading towards its initial support at 1.0850, followed by 1.0800 where the 200MA and the descending parallel of the bullish long channel can be found.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The USD Index (DXY) has surged to its highest level since June 12, buoyed by a hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and a strong US economy. Despite mixed views on rate hikes among policymakers, the focus remains on inflation control. Strong incoming US macro data suggests a potential 25 basis points increase later in the year, driving the 10-year government bond yield to its highest since 2008 and benefiting the US Dollar. Equities' weaker sentiment enhances the dollar's safe-haven status, pressuring the GBP/USD pair. China's economic concerns compound recession fears.
Conversely, the GBP/USD's downside pressure appears cushioned due to the growing acceptance of an upcoming UK central bank rate hike in September. Reinforced by strong wage growth, positive GDP, and slightly elevated CPI figures, the Bank of England's tightening policy is expected to continue. Caution is advised, awaiting clear signs of a sustained rebound from the 100-day Simple Moving Average around 1.2615. Market attention shifts to US indicators, including Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, alongside US bond yield movements, impacting the USD and offering guidance for the GBP/USD pair.
The GBP/USD found support at the 1.2650 level, forming a double bottom while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be at 1.2650 again.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair surged to a YTD high of 146.55 but struggled due to concerns about potential Yen protection by Japanese policymakers. This was balanced by a mix of risk aversion and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which boosted the major currency pair. Global market sentiment soured as traders worried about the Fed's leaning towards a hawkish bias amidst ongoing economic challenges. China's economic and geopolitical issues, along with inconsistent US data, added to the negative sentiment. The recent Federal Reserve meeting minutes revealed discussions on inflation and a preference for addressing persistent inflation, contributing to the hawkish view. Moreover, concerns grew over China's housing market decline and potential bond crisis. S&P 500 futures hit a five-week low, mirroring Wall Street's losses, while US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose significantly, raising economic slowdown concerns and supporting the US Dollar. Mixed Japanese data and strong US figures also influenced USD/JPY. The future USD/JPY direction hinges on risk developments amid a light calendar.
The price is finding a resistance level right now at the upper parallel of the long bullish channel at the 146.50 level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

GOLD

The price of gold (XAU/USD) has hit a five-month low at around $1,890, then stabilized, as investors search for signals to continue the recent decline. This drop is influenced by concerns from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and cautious market sentiment. Worries about China's economic slowdown and weaker growth in developed countries, combined with stronger US economic data, are pushing up US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar. These factors are pressuring the XAU/USD. Notably, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields have surged to about 4.29%, the highest since October 2022. This elevated bond yield has previously led to concerns about economic slowdown and negatively impacted riskier assets, while also supporting the US Dollar. Additionally, negative economic forecasts from Fitch Ratings are also contributing to the downward pressure on both sentiment and the price of gold.
Although the lack of major events/data might allow gold prices to stabilize at their recent low, the prevailing risk aversion sentiment and higher yields could keep the US Dollar strong. This could prompt a rebound in XAU/USD unless there is significant positive news/data that weakens the US Dollar and boosts market sentiment.
As gold broke the 1900 confluence point, the next target will be around the 1875 support, followed by the 1845 level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European stocks declined on Thursday, influenced by BAE Systems' drop following its agreement to acquire Ball Corp's aerospace division. Furthermore, apprehensions about prolonged elevated interest rates were ignited by the minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve's July gathering.
BAE Systems experienced a 3.2% decline after the largest defense firm in Britain revealed its $5.55 billion cash purchase of Ball Corp's aerospace assets.
The aerospace and defense sector of Europe (.SXPARO) encountered a 1.2% decline.
Following a decrease in markets on the previous day due to the divergence of opinions among Fed officials regarding the necessity for more interest rate increases, Wall Street futures exhibited a mixed trend.
Bond yields surged across Europe, especially in Italy and Germany (DE10YT=RR), which applied pressure on the equity market.
Dutch insurer Aegon (AGN) witnessed a 4.7% slump after reporting its first-half results.
In Norway, stocks (OSEAX) dwindled by 0.6% in anticipation of the central bank's verdict on interest rates.
DAX continues the selloff, and the next support level is around the 15500-15400 level.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

Eurostat is set to release the final Consumer Price Index for July, with the annual rate expected to remain steady at 5.3%, holding no surprises. Additionally, Eurostat will provide a report on the Construction Output for June.
In the US, the economy continues to show resilience, particularly in the Labor market, with solid economic data indicating ongoing strength. Inflation pressures persist, as the latest retail sales data confirms heightened price pressures.
The recent FOMC minutes and statements from various FED members underline the central bank's persistent hawkish stance. Despite the consistent slowdown in the Consumer Price Index over the past months, the FED remains attentive to potential inflationary pressures. This vigilance is evident, even though the downward trend in the CPI has been evident. Given the prevailing macroeconomic conditions, the market is beginning to factor in the possibility of a final interest rate hike within this year.
The EURUSD is heading towards its initial support at 1.0850, followed by 1.0800 where the 200MA and the descending parallel of the bullish long channel can be found.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The recent UK Retail Sales data revealed a decline in July, with sales dropping more than expected on both monthly and yearly bases. This has contributed to downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair due to factors like risk aversion, strong US Treasury yields, and economic challenges in China. Positive UK inflation figures have boosted the pair but concerns about potential Bank of England interest rate hikes remain. The US Dollar Index (DXY) retraced gains as US data improved, causing market caution. Going forward, investors are watching US and UK economic indicators and anticipating insights for the GBP/USD pair. The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium will focus on analyzing the global economic forecast, particularly addressing inflation.
The GBP/USD found support at 1.2650 and formed a double bottom while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be at 1.2650 again.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

The economic landscape witnessed significant shifts in Japan and the US. Japan's July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose unexpectedly to 3.3% YoY, revealing the Bank of Japan's unique approach to ultra-loose monetary policy amid experimentation with flexible bond yield caps. This contrasted starkly with the US, where jobless claims for the week ending August 12 dropped slightly to 239K, underscoring a robust labor market. Simultaneously, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve's Manufacturing Survey for August surged to 12, defying earlier expectations. These trends bolster the case for potential interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve. Looking ahead, the USD/JPY pair's trajectory hinges on USD fluctuations due to a lack of economic releases from both nations. Ongoing concerns surrounding China's debt crisis also loom as a potential risk factor.
The price is finding a resistance level right now at the upper parallel of the long bullish channel at the 146.50 level. The next support will be around 145.00.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The surge in gold price could be hindered by increasing activity among gold sellers due to factors like heightened market risk aversion, stronger US Treasury yields, and persistent economic challenges in China. These factors might counteract the positive impact of the US Dollar's retreat, impacting gold's overall trajectory.
Initial Jobless Claims (Aug 11) dropped to 239K from the previous 250K, surpassing the projected 240K. The August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey improved, reaching 12 from the previous -13.5, outperforming the expected -10.
This situation reveals investors seeking more cues on the potential direction of the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy tightening. Market uncertainties persist, making investors cautious and information-thirsty before finalizing decisions.
Next week, investor attention turns to US economic data, particularly Home Sales and Manufacturing indicators. The annual Jackson Hole Symposium will gather central bankers, policy experts, and academics to discuss the global economic outlook, particularly addressing ongoing inflation. The Symposium offers a platform for financial and economic leaders to exchange insights and shape strategies amidst the current inflation landscape.
The next target will be around the 1875 support, followed by the 1845 level as gold broke the 1900 confluence point and the dollar seems strong and can continue the bullish movement.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European stocks started the day with a decline on Friday and are set to record weekly losses due to concerns about sustained high global interest rates and reduced growth prospects in China, which have negatively impacted risk sentiment.
The surge in bond yields has placed pressure on equities this week, causing the STOXX 600 to face a potential weekly drop of nearly 2%.
Investor attention has also been focused on China's economy, as a series of economic data and disruptions in the property sector have exposed challenges in the post-pandemic recovery.
Shares of luxury brands with exposure to China, such as LVMH, Kering, and Hermes, declined between 0.6% and 1.2% due to heightened concerns over weak economic growth in the world's second-largest economy.
China Evergrande Group, a troubled developer, filed for bankruptcy protection in a U.S. court as part of one of the largest debt restructuring efforts globally.
European mining companies, which also have ties to China, experienced a 1.1% early trade drop.
The UK's FTSE 100 index fell by 0.6% following data revealing a steeper-than-anticipated decline in British retail sales for July.
In terms of individual stocks, Frankfurt-listed SUSE saw a remarkable 58% surge after the software solutions provider announced its majority shareholder EQT AB's plan to take it private for an offer price of 16 euros per share.
DAX continues the selloff, and the next support level is around the 15500-15400 level.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

China's economic focus today is on the PBoC's 10 basis point reduction in the one-year loan prime rate, deviating from the anticipated 15 basis point decrease for both one-year and five-year rates. To alleviate market concerns, China must implement a substantial stimulus, potentially impacting the EUR/USD negatively. German producer prices fell due to weak demand and competitive order attraction, influencing inflation and escalating recession risks. The direction of the EUR/USD pair depends on the ECB's stance and upcoming PMI data. With no significant US indicators, attention turns to Fed communication, especially surrounding the Jackson Hole Symposium. Market risk sentiment and the dollar's safe-haven demand are crucial considerations.
The EURUSD is approaching its initial support at 1.0850, followed by 1.0800, where the 200MA and the descending parallel of the bullish long channel can be found. A possible reversal may occur if the data supports it.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

In July, retail sales, including auto fuel, dropped by 1.2%, defying expectations of a 0.6% decrease. Sales excluding auto fuel also fell by 1.4%, missing the projected 0.7% drop. This contrasts with the trend of surpassing expectations seen in the past four months.
Despite weak sales, the Bank of England's stance wasn't significantly affected. Market sentiment dipped only 2 basis points to 31 bps for the September meeting. This contrasts with the recent 10 bps spike following positive employment and inflation reports.
Unfavorable weather, with the sixth highest July rainfall on record, might have contributed to the retail sales dip. The dampened consumer activity could explain it.
Looking ahead, optimism exists for August due to factors like England's Women’s Football World Cup advancement boosting spending enthusiasm, and back-to-school shopping likely boosting retail sales.
The GBP/USD found support at 1.2650 and formed a reversal pattern while the next resistance level is at 1.2820 and the support will be at 1.2650 again.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3220	1.3150	1.3000	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

The USD/JPY pair is hovering within a narrow range just below the mid-145.00s as it enters the early Asian session on Monday. Traders are opting to remain cautious due to a risk-averse sentiment, awaiting Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Prior to that, they are also anticipating PMI data from both the US and Japan. Currently, the major pair is trading near 145.43, showing a slight gain of 0.03% for the day.
Simultaneously, traders are monitoring the potential intervention by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), with the Japanese government possibly stepping in to prevent a stronger Japanese Yen. Nonetheless, the primary factor driving the yen's depreciation is the monetary policy disparity between the US and Japan.
The pair found the expected support at the 144.80 level, transforming it from a previous resistance into a new support. The upper parallel of the bullish channel is likely to continue acting as a resistance level. A potential intervention could trigger a significant selloff, possibly surpassing an average of 300 pips daily.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) remains subdued at its lowest point in five months as investors turn to the US Dollar amidst uncertainty before significant data/events this week. The downward pressure on XAU/USD is also influenced by concerns about China, a major commodity consumer. Despite China's efforts to restore investor confidence, worries about its economic health continue to hamper gold price gains. Geopolitical tensions, trade war fears, the People’s Bank of China maintaining its five-year Loan Prime Rates (LPRs), and positive US Treasury bond yields contribute to the gold price decline. Nonetheless, uncertainty about Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s monetary policy stance and anticipation of August's Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs), US Durable Goods Orders, and central bankers' speeches at the Jackson Hole Symposium prevent a further drop in gold price.
The market is currently in a holding pattern, anticipating developments in data and events. The upcoming support level is projected to be around 1875, followed by the 1845 mark. This comes after gold's breach of the 1900 confluence point, while the dollar remains robust, potentially extending the bearish momentum.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European stocks gained ground on Monday, with energy shares rising alongside global oil prices, and healthcare stocks receiving a boost from Danish pharmaceutical company Novo Nordisk's strong performance.
Energy stocks (.SXEP) climbed by 1% as crude prices surged due to decreased exports from Saudi Arabia and Russia, countering concerns about demand growth amidst high-interest rates. Meanwhile, Europe's healthcare index (.SXDP) advanced by 0.6%, fueled by a 1.3% rise in Novo Nordisk's shares after Morgan Stanley raised its price target for the company.
Despite official data showing a larger-than-expected drop in German producer prices for July, Germany's DAX index added 0.4% during early trading.
Investor attention this week will be directed towards the Jackson Hole Symposium, where European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell are anticipated to offer insights into the future interest rate landscape.
In terms of individual stocks, Adyen's shares fell by 4.6% following downgrades by two brokerages for the Dutch digital payments firm.
DAX continues the selloff, and the next support level is around the 15500-15400 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at the central bankers' meeting may bring an updated economic assessment. Strong industrial production, retail sales, and housing starts suggest higher July inflation, potentially leading to tightening. Powell might emphasize a data-dependent approach. With USD positioning slightly long, a balanced assessment could prompt unwinding.
Economists predict Eurozone's current account shift from €11.3B deficit to €22.0B surplus, bullish for EUR/USD. Investors should explore underlying factors driving the change amid weak demand.
Today's focus is the US Housing Sector. Despite a 7.09% mortgage rate, wage growth, labor market strength, and consumer confidence counter housing sales decline fears.
The anticipated 0.5% drop in existing home sales follows June's 3.3% slide. Lower mortgage rates could boost demand as NAR sees insufficient inventories for pent-up demand.
Consider FOMC comments pre-Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell's surprises could sow uncertainty. FOMC's Barkin, Bowman, and Goolsbee speak; Bowman and Goolsbee hold more sway.
Light Eurozone calendar, ECB commentary key. No ECB Executives today; media may influence. Investors liked ECB Chief Economist's podcast, urging Eurozone to avert a severe downturn. A strong US economy might lead ECB to cut rates before the slowdown.
The EURUSD confirms the potential for a reversal and is currently heading toward its next resistance at 1.0950. The 100MA on the 4H chart is expected to contribute to a confluence point with the upper parallel of the downward channel.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The interest rate differential between the US and the UK is expected to narrow. This is due to strong growth data and ongoing pressure from wages, alongside persistent core inflation levels. The Bank of England (BoE) is prepared to raise rates at least twice, aiming for around 5.75%. As a result, the GBP/USD pair could resume its upward trend, possibly challenging the 1.3000 level and even testing the year-to-date high at 1.3147.
Looking ahead to the upcoming week, the UK economic calendar will include the CBI Industrial Trend Orders, S&P Global PMIs, and GfK Consumer Confidence. On the US side, there will be various events, including speeches from Fed officials, housing data, S&P Global PMIs, Durable Goods Orders, unemployment claims, and a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday.
Similar to EUR/USD, GBP/USD is heading towards the next resistance level at 1.2825, where a confluence point is forming with the 200MA.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda held discussions with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on economic matters, excluding recent currency fluctuations. This meeting continued the tradition of regular economic dialogues between the two. Ueda clarified the Bank of Japan's decision to relax control over long-term interest rates, an understanding that Kishida shared. Initially, the dollar weakened against the yen in response to the news, but it later rebounded to around 145.98 yen. This marked the second such meeting since Ueda assumed his position in April. Concerns emerged due to US Treasury yields driving a stronger dollar against the yen, potentially prompting intervention.
A double top reversal pattern on the USDJPY is forming. The next support is at the 145.00 level. Intervention from the BOJ is possible, and the selloff may lead toward more than 300-500 pips movement.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

Gold's struggle to maintain gains from the previous day is evident as it hovers near $1,895 during Tuesday's Asian session. The XAU/USD pair, driven by a weakening US Dollar (USD), aims to break a four-week losing streak. Despite this, gold sellers remain cautious due to various factors. These include increased market risk aversion, elevated US Treasury yields, and China's ongoing economic challenges. These elements might counterbalance the impact of the Greenback's decline on gold prices.
Should there be positive US economic data, concerns could arise regarding the potential tightening of monetary policy in the September US Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. This might enhance hawkish sentiment among USD buyers.
Investor sentiment may be significantly swayed by China's economic struggles. China's People’s Bank of China (PBoC) unexpectedly trimmed the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by 10 bps, rather than the anticipated 15 bps, indicating a focus on aiding existing borrowers instead of fostering credit expansion.
The market is currently in a reversal movement, awaiting developments in data and events. The 1900 level is acting as the first resistance, and a breakout above 1905 will likely lead to the next confluence point in 1919.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

European stocks began the day on a positive note this Tuesday, with technology shares taking the lead in gains. Chipmakers followed the momentum from an overnight rally on Wall Street in anticipation of Nvidia's earnings. Additionally, Ubisoft's shares saw an increase.
The technology sector (.SX8P) experienced a 1.3% surge, driven by a rally in chip stocks due to positive sentiment surrounding Nvidia (NVDA), the world's most valuable chip manufacturer, in anticipation of its quarterly results set to be released on Wednesday.
Shares of chipmakers listed in Amsterdam, namely ASML Holding NV (ASML), ASM International NV (ASM), and BE Semiconductor Industries NV (BESI), recorded gains ranging between 1.4% and 2.0%.
Ubisoft Entertainment (UBI) witnessed a notable 6.3% increase following Microsoft's (MSFT) announcement that its acquisition target, Activision (ATVI), would be selling its non-European streaming rights to the French video game producer.
The European mining sector (.SXPP) also showed growth, adding 1.1% in response to higher metal prices.
Prysmian (PRY) observed a rise of 3.9% after being selected as the 'preferred bidder' for three projects valued at EUR 4.5 billion in Germany, reinforcing its position as an Italian cable maker.
DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. The actual price action doesn't seem to be showing any clear direction, as the price has been in a range for the last 2 months.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

Germany, the Composite PMI for August 2023 dropped to 44.7 from the previous month's 48.5, significantly below the anticipated 48.3. This contraction marked the most severe decline in private sector activity since May 2020, post the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline resulted from a deepening manufacturing downturn and renewed contraction in the services sector. Similarly, the EU PMI for services and composite are lower confirming a contraction in business activity in the EU.
With these economic developments, there is ongoing speculation about the tone Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will adopt in his speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Market participants are eager to discern whether his comments will be neutral or have a more pronounced effect on the markets than originally anticipated. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that the U.S. economy is showing signs of a "reacceleration scenario," with persistently high inflation and a strengthening economy, potentially justifying further interest rate hikes. Notably, retail sales and consumer confidence have remained resilient in the U.S. Barkin also indicated that the recent increase in Treasury yields has not led him to believe that the Federal Reserve has excessively tightened financial conditions.
The EURUSD is breaking the support level of 1.0850 and going to touch the solid confluence point at 1.0800 where the 200MA and the down parallel of the actual bullish trend are main a solid confluence point. Today’s PMIs from the EU may help for more selloff especially if we got a good number from the US.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The August meeting went as predicted, resulting in a 0.25% increase in the Bank Rate, now at 5.25%, up from 5.00%, following the 0.50% hike in June. The upcoming session is scheduled for Thursday, September 21st.
Although another increase in the UK interest rate is expected, it's approaching its peak, potentially leading to stabilized gilt yields. This could discourage investors and limit upward support for the pound's value.
The preliminary estimate for Q2 of '23 exceeded expectations with a 0.2% expansion, an improvement from Q1's 0.1% expansion. The final Q2 report will be released on Friday, September 29th.
Anticipated improvement in the UK GDP this year might enhance investor confidence in UK stocks, thereby mitigating downward pressure on the pound's value.
Today's PMI figures might confirm the surprising economic growth data, particularly the manufacturing component, which is currently in a contraction zone. Additionally, the US PMI results will provide further insight into the state of business activity in the USA.
GBP/USD is heading towards the next resistance level at 1.2825, where a confluence point is forming with the 200MA.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

Japan experienced an accelerated business expansion in August, primarily driven by powerful growth in its service sector, as indicated by a private survey conducted by au Jibun Bank. The country's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August reached 52.6, surpassing July's figure of 52.2. However, Japan's manufacturing PMI remained in contraction territory for the third consecutive month, registering a reading of 49.0. In contrast, the service sector demonstrated a more substantial expansion, with its PMI climbing from 53.8 to 54.3.
BoJ core inflation surprised on the upside in July, with a gain of 3.3% y/y. This was above the June reading of 3.0% and the consensus estimate of 2.9%. Last week, National Core CPI eased to 3.1% in July, down from 3.3% in June. We may have to wait for further inflation releases to get a handle on which way inflation is moving. In any event, the BoJ core inflation release was higher than expected and has given a boost to the Japanese yen.
Fed Chair Powell presides over the annual Jackson Hole Symposium starting this Thursday. On Friday, Powell's eagerly awaited speech is of great interest to investors, who seek hints about the Fed's forthcoming rate policies. Meanwhile, the BOJ appears poised to step in and support the yen, which has been declining. JP Morgan anticipates that intervention might be considered around the 150.00 level.
A double top reversal pattern on the USDJPY is forming. The next support is at the 145.00 level. Intervention from the BOJ is possible, and the selloff may lead toward more than 300-500 pips movement.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) remains strong for the fourth consecutive day, even though there's limited upward momentum ahead of important data. The recent rise in XAU/USD could be attributed to the retreat of the US Dollar due to softer Treasury bond yields and slightly positive market sentiment. Additionally, the gold buyers are being favored by the anticipation of improved US-China relations, mixed concerns about de-dollarization at the BRICS Summit in South Africa, and heavy bets in the market that suggest no change in the Fed rate in September. Expectations also lean towards Fed Chair Jerome Powell not adopting a hawkish bias in his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday. Currently, there's a negative correlation between yields and gold. It's important to mention, though, that firmer recent US data and the Federal Reserve policymakers' reluctance to embrace a rate-cut bias appears to support the XAU/USD rebound. The market is awaiting preliminary August Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for major economies.
The market is currently in a reversal movement, awaiting developments in data and events. The 1900 level is acting as the first resistance, and a breakout above 1905 will likely lead to the next confluence point in 1919.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European markets began the day on a positive note, with mining shares leading the way due to higher metal prices. Additionally, the Swiss pharmaceutical company Roche's positive performance boosted healthcare stocks.
Mining stocks (.SXPP) experienced a 0.9% increase, driven by the upward movement in the prices of various base metals.
Roche (RO) saw a notable rise of 3.1% following its acknowledgment of an unintentional disclosure during a study involving its new immunotherapy for lung cancer patients, which employs an experimental group of drugs referred to as anti-TIGIT.
The broader healthcare index (.SXDP) also registered a gain of 0.8%.
Investor attention will be focused on the Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for August, scheduled for release later in the day. This data will provide insights into the current state of the continental economy.
In addition, PMI figures from Germany, the UK, and France all PMI numbers are slowing down indicating a slowdown in activity.
Among individual stocks, Societe Generale (GLE) experienced a 2.0% increase in its value, as Morgan Stanley upgraded the French bank's rating from "equal-weight" to "overweight."
Orsted (10CF) witnessed a rise of 1.6% after receiving approval from the US Interior Department for the construction of a 704-megawatt (MW) wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island. The project is owned by the renewable energy group. DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. The actual price action doesn't seem to be showing any clear direction, as the price has been in a range for the last 2 months.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

Economic Calendar:

Daily Markets Performance:




EURUSD
Despite gloomy PMI data from the Eurozone and Germany last Wednesday, the pair remained resilient, fostering caution among investors seeking cues about inflation. The Eurozone's August preliminary HCOB Composite PMI fell to 47, missing the expected 48.5 and the prior 48.6. Germany's Composite PMI also dropped to 44.7, below the anticipated 48.3 and July's 48.5.
Conversely, the US released softer-than-expected preliminary PMI data the same day. The August S&P Global Composite PMI slid to 50.4 from the previous 52, exerting pressure on US Treasury yields and reinforcing USD correction.
Despite predictions of the ECB holding interest rates due to modest GDP and inflation data the prior week, the EUR/USD faces upward pressure. Lackluster US economic data reduced the chances of a September US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike.
Currently, the US Dollar Index (DXY), comparing USD against six major currencies, hovers around 103.40. Investors await insights from Fed Chair Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde during Friday's Jackson Hole symposium for strategy cues in response to the inflationary outlook. Market players will also watch US Initial Jobless Claims and Eurozone GDP for EUR/USD trading cues.
The EURUSD rebounded from the 1.0800 level, where the 200MA and the descending parallel of the bullish channel acted as confluence support. The upcoming target is the 1.0940 resistance level, coinciding with the 100MA on the 4H timeframe and the upper parallel of the descending channel.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0950	1.0900	1.0850

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair faced downward pressure due to disappointing UK preliminary PMI data, falling below expectations. The S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for August declined to 47.9 from 50.8, weaker than the expected 50.3, marking the first sub-50 reading since January. Similarly, US PMIs also missed consensus, aiding the GBP/USD recovery from the previous day's losses. The Greenback was pressured as US Treasury yields fell on weaker economic data.
August's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47, below the expected 49.3 and prior 49. The S&P Global Services PMI fell to 51 from 52.3, missing the expected 52.2. Weaker PMIs from both nations hinted at an economic slowdown, reducing rate hike expectations in upcoming central bank meetings, prompting caution among traders seeking economic cues.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the dollar against major currencies, hovered near 103.40. Investors awaited the Jackson Hole symposium for Powell's speech. Traders monitored US Initial Jobless Claims and the UK's GfK Consumer Confidence for August, seeking insights into GBP/USD trends.
GBP/USD is forming a triple bottom reversal pattern and the next target towards the next resistance level at 1.2825, where a confluence point is forming with the 200MA.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

Japan witnessed a rapid expansion in its business activities in August, primarily propelled by a strong surge in its service sector. This growth was indicated by a private survey conducted by au Jibun Bank. The country's flash Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for August exceeded the previous month's figure, reaching 52.6 compared to July's 52.2. However, Japan's manufacturing PMI remained in contraction for the third consecutive month, with a reading of 49.0. In contrast, the service sector exhibited a more notable expansion, as its PMI climbed from 53.8 to 54.3.
In July, Japan's core inflation surprised on the positive side, with a year-on-year gain of 3.3%. This surpassed both June's reading of 3.0% and the consensus estimate of 2.9%. However, last week's data revealed a slight decrease in National Core CPI for July, dropping from 3.3% in June to 3.1%. Further inflation releases are awaited to determine the inflation trend. Nevertheless, the higher-than-expected BoJ core inflation release provided a boost to the Japanese yen.
Starting this Thursday, Fed Chair Powell will preside over the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Investors are especially eager to hear Powell's speech on Friday, as it is expected to provide insights into the Federal Reserve's upcoming rate policies. Concurrently, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) seems ready to intervene and support the yen, which has been facing a decline. JP Morgan anticipates that intervention might be considered if the yen approaches the 150.00 level.
A double top reversal pattern on the USDJPY is forming. The next support is at the 145.00 level. Intervention from the BOJ is possible, and the selloff may lead toward more than 300-500 pips movement.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

Recent manufacturing surveys highlighted global economic challenges with worsening economic conditions in China. The US also presented dismal macro data, with business activity nearing stagnation in August. S&P Global's Composite US PMI dropped significantly to 50.4 from 52 in August, signaling concerns about a deeper global economic downturn. This influenced the safe haven gold price, which gained traction.
Additionally, reduced chances of tighter policies from the Federal Reserve (Fed) caused a pullback in the 10-year US government bond yield, supporting gold. Uncertainty surrounds the Fed's rate-hike timeline, possibly restraining aggressive bullish gold bets. The USD Index (DXY), reflecting the Greenback against various currencies, paused its decline from a two-month high. Any USD strength might cap the US Dollar-denominated gold price.
Investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium for insights on future rate hikes, influencing USD demand and the XAU/USD outlook.
Gold made the awaited reversal movement, breaking the 1919 level and heading toward the 1940 resistance level. The negative correlation with US yields is currently giving an advantage to gold.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European shares reached one-week highs on Thursday. The surge was primarily driven by a 1.2% jump in tech stocks, spearheaded by chipmaker Nvidia. The company exceeded expectations with its quarterly revenue forecast and unveiled plans for a share buyback program.
The positive market sentiment was further fueled by easing bond yields across Europe. German bund yields, a regional benchmark, eased to 2.48%, leading to a 1.5% gain in rate-sensitive real estate stocks. European retailers rebounded by 0.6% following a previous session dip of over 1%.
As the focus shifts to the Jackson Hole central banks' meeting, where both ECB President Christine Lagarde and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell are set to speak, traders remain divided on the possibility of ECB rate hikes. Symrise saw a 2.9% gain after Morgan Stanley upgraded the German flavor and fragrance maker, while Air Liquide rose 1.8% post an upgrade from Berenberg. Danish allergy treatment provider Alk-Abello surged 11.5% due to a nearly doubled year-on-year second-quarter operating profit. However, Britain's largest North Sea oil and gas producer, Harbour Energy, fell 1.0% after narrowing its annual production forecast range.
DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. The actual price action doesn't seem to be showing any clear direction, as the price has been in a range for the last 2 months.​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

The euro is still facing pressure as it missed the critical level at 1.08, trading slightly lower. Investors are eagerly awaiting statements from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and ECB President Christine Lagarde later today. The Jackson Hole Symposium, which began yesterday, has put the main central bankers back in the spotlight after their absence, and the market is keen to see if they will reveal any new insights about future interest rate intentions.
Yesterday's developments didn't hold any significant surprises. Economic data had mixed conclusions, and the US dollar gained extra support from the negative sentiment in international stock markets. This increased the demand for dollars, a traditional safe-haven currency.
Today's schedule is quite busy. Alongside the central bankers' statements, important macroeconomic data will be released, including the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment survey in the US and the IFO Institute's announcement on the economic climate in Germany. Given the potential for significant volatility, adopting a wait-and-see approach before major announcements seems prudent.
The EURUSD is breaking the confluence point of 1.0800 making a new lower low where the next target will be around the 1.0700 support level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is consistently experiencing a decline as a result of the significant tightening of interest rates by the Bank of England (BoE), which has historically aggressive policies. This has led to the GBP/USD hitting an 11-week low due to negative market sentiment and increasing concerns about a recession in the UK economy. In an effort to combat persistent inflation, the BoE has raised interest rates to 5.25%, leading to adverse effects on UK businesses. Some companies are even facing insolvency because they can't meet their interest payment obligations.
The ongoing high Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in the UK, coupled with decreasing real household income, has led to reduced Retail Sales and a generally unfavorable demand environment. As a result, companies are being forced to operate at lower capacities. Market observers anticipate that the impact of the BoE's higher interest rates will escalate further, as the central bank plans to implement additional monetary tightening measures in September.
GBP/USD is breaking the 1.2600 support level where the next target will be the 1.2400.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

In August, Tokyo's annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 2.9%, below the anticipated 3.0% and down from the previous 3.2%. The Tokyo CPI excluding Food and Energy remained constant at 4%. However, the CPI excluding Fresh Food dropped to 2.8%, falling short of the expected 2.9%. On another note, US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 18 declined to 230K, meeting expectations and consistent with the previous figure. In contrast, US Durable Goods Orders for July fell 5.2%, worse than the anticipated 4%, a shift from the previous 4.4%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), gauging the USD against six major currencies, lingers around 104.20 ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech. Traders of USD/JPY will also watch closely for insights from Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Saturday, impacting strategies for the USD/JPY pair.
Furthermore, the USD/JPY pair strengthened due to robust US employment data, higher Treasury yields, and mixed sentiment around potential US Federal Reserve tightening in September. Geo-economic concerns between the US and China, coupled with China's economic struggles, added to the pair's strength due to their export-trade interdependence.
The dollar is outperforming the majors and is once again pushing the pair towards 146.50. The upper parallel of the bullish channel on the daily chart serves as the resistance level where the pair is currently being held.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD
Investors await clues about the Fed's rate-hike stance, impacting the near-term US Dollar (USD) and gold price direction. Weak US flash PMI data signaled economic sluggishness in August, postponing Fed tightening expectations. Despite this, hawkish Fed remarks hint at a 25-bps rate increase by year-end.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggested steady rates, allowing for potential hikes without indicating timing. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker stressed maintaining a restrictive stance until inflation drops for rate cuts. Such views boost US Treasury bond yields, driving the USD Index (DXY) to a peak since June 6, influencing gold prices.
Amid global economic worries and China's downturn, grim manufacturing surveys stoke recession fears, impacting investor sentiment and favoring gold's safe-haven status. This tempers gold's downside, although caution prevails due to fragile equity markets.
Gold made the awaited reversal movement, breaking the 1919 level and heading towards the 1940 resistance level but the yield started going back and this may lead toward selloff on gold.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European stocks started the day on a downward trajectory on Friday, as investors exercised caution before significant speeches from key central bank figures at the Jackson Hole symposium in the United States. Additionally, increasing bond yields continued to exert pressure on the stock market.
As of 07:11 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 index experienced a 0.1% decline. However, it appeared to be heading for its first weekly gain in four weeks.
The Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, is slated to deliver his speech at 14:05 GMT, while the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, is scheduled to take the stage at 19:00 GMT.
The speeches by these central bank leaders will play a crucial role in gauging the future direction of interest rates. There is hope that central banks might be approaching the end of their tightening cycle.
Across Europe, bond yields saw an uptick, with German bund yields (DE10YT=RR), regarded as Europe's benchmark, climbing to 2.54%. Consequently, real estate stocks sensitive to interest rate changes (SX86P) experienced a 0.1% drop.
Conversely, technology stocks sensitive to economic growth (SX8P) saw a 0.5% decrease, while the travel and leisure sector (SXTP) declined by 0.4%.
To offset some of the losses, energy stocks (SXEP) managed to rise by 0.6% due to an increase in crude oil prices. Furthermore, basic resources stocks (SXPP) gained 0.2% thanks to higher metal prices.
Germany's DAX index lost 0.1% of its value after official data indicated that the German economy remained stagnant in the second quarter compared to the preceding three months, following a period of recession during the winter.
DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. The actual price action doesn't seem to be showing any clear direction, as the price has been in a range for the last 2 months.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, speaking at his annual address in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, early on Friday, stated that central bank policymakers were attentive to signs suggesting that the economy might not be cooling as anticipated. This poses a dichotomy: while faster-than-expected economic growth benefits corporate earnings and leads to higher Treasury yields for valid reasons, the surge in yields places pressure on growth stocks, whose future earnings are evaluated against the risk-free Treasury rate, as well as on indebted companies that must refinance their obligations at elevated rates.
Christine Lagarde's recent lack of clarity on the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy direction has brought attention to a crucial week in the Eurozone. Although she acknowledged persistent inflation, she refrained from addressing the upcoming September 14 meeting, allowing room for public debate among colleagues regarding potential interest rate increases. The upcoming consumer-price data will set the stage for a significant decision, as officials assess whether further monetary tightening is necessary or if a weakening economic outlook warrants a pause.
Key factors in this decision include the Eurozone inflation numbers, particularly the core measure excluding volatile elements like energy. The service sector's relative strength compared to the struggling industry sector contributes to this nuanced inflation situation. ECB officials expressed varying views on the matter, with some advocating for rate increases and others suggesting a pause due to economic uncertainties. Overall, caution regarding inflation was evident, affecting Germany's short-term debt.
The EURUSD is breaking the confluence point of 1.0800 making a new lower low where the next target will be around the 1.0700 support level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair extended its decline last week following Jerome Powell's remarks at the Jackson Hole Summit. Powell expressed concerns about persistent high American inflation and hinted at a potential interest rate hike in September, which could take rates to 5.75%, the highest in over 23 years. This hike coincides with surging mortgage rates that have hit a two-decade peak.
Despite these challenges, positive indicators suggest a strong American economy. Unemployment stands at 3.7%, the lowest in over 50 years, with robust retail spending and a thriving housing sector. The Atlanta Fed predicts a 6% Q3 economic expansion, attributing it to growing construction projects, benefiting from the Inflation Reduction Act, CHIPS Act, and infrastructure bill.
Monday's muted GBP/USD activity, due to a UK bank holiday, directs investor attention toward upcoming American economic data. On Tuesday, the Conference Board releases the latest consumer confidence figures, expected to show a slight August dip. Additional data includes the house price index (HPI) and JOLTs job openings data. Later in the week, the US will unveil PCE and non-farm payrolls (NFP) data.
GBP/USD is breaking the 1.2600 support level where the next target will be 1,2400. The downtrend is healthy, and on a daily chart the pair broke the 100MA.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

USD/JPY bulls stall, causing the yen pair's first daily loss in three sessions around 146.30. Despite lacking strong downward momentum, it struggles to embrace China-driven risk-on sentiment due to anxiety about upcoming US employment and inflation data.
Mixed June Coincident Index and Leading Economic Index details from Japan influence USD/JPY traders.
China's move to halve the stock trading stamp duty bolsters sentiment and weighs on the US Dollar. The Wall Street Journal report highlighting Chairman Xi Jinping’s stimulus-leaning stance further impacts the market.
Beyond China's optimism, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s data-driven focus trims recent greenback gains before the Core PCE Price Index release and crucial US employment data, including Nonfarm Payrolls.
Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda cites slightly low Japanese inflation to support the current accommodative policy. Strong domestic demand and record profits also raise inflation concerns, strengthening the case for potential changes to the ultra-easy monetary policy after recent Yield Curve Control adjustments.
The dollar is outperforming the majors and is once again pushing the pair towards 147.00 The upper parallel of the bullish channel on the daily chart serves as the resistance level where the pair is currently being held.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) appears uncertain despite countering its bearish trend with the first positive weekly close in five weeks. This lack of movement could be attributed to market anxiety before significant US inflation and employment data releases this week. Despite the decline in US Treasury bond yields, the US Dollar, and optimism tied to China's developments, XAU/USD doesn't respond positively.
Apart from pre-data caution, the gold price is affected by mixed statements from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Although many defended restrictive monetary policies, they refrained from suggesting further rate hikes. They emphasized data dependency for future decisions, implying a weakening stance among Fed hawks.
Furthermore, China's additional economic stimulus measures aim to boost activity, but concerns about US-China trade relations and a slower recovery in a major gold consumer nation.
Gold stooped at the 1922 level and is waiting for direction as this week we will have a great number of economic data. For gold to continue up the yields need to do a comeback. The next resistance level is at the 1940-45 area.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European shares opened higher on Monday, driven by gains in technology stocks and China-related automakers. This surge follows a positive closing on Wall Street and Beijing's move to support its struggling stock market. By 0710 GMT, the pan-European STOXX 600 (SXXP) had risen by 0.7%, marking its first weekly gain in four weeks.
Technology stocks (.SX8P) increased by 1.5%, rebounding after a three-session decline, mirroring the overnight rally in the US market. China's finance ministry revealed plans to reduce the 0.1% duty on stock trades, aimed at revitalizing the capital market and boosting investor confidence.
Sectors linked to China, including automakers (.SXAP) and industrials (.SXNP), saw gains of 1.1% and 1.0% respectively. Prominent luxury brands with exposure to China, such as LVMH (MC), Kering (KER), and Hermes (RMS), also witnessed gains exceeding 1% each.
In contrast, the euro zone's interest rate expectations remained subdued after European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday. Notably, UK markets were closed due to a summer bank holiday.
DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. We entered a price range where the price is at support at 15500 and a resistance level at 16400. A breakout outside of those levels will determine more direction.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

GfK Institute's survey indicates a forthcoming decrease in German consumer sentiment for September. This projection results from diminishing income expectations and reduced inclination to make purchases, with the consumer sentiment index declining to -25.5 for September, down from August's slightly revised -24.6.
Later in the day, the focus shifts to US job openings. A minor decline could signal a potential slowdown in broader labor statistics due to be released on Friday.
Investors are still navigating the path of monetary policy, with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating the possibility of further interest rate hikes if inflation remains below target. Powell emphasized the Fed's dedication to combating inflation, stating that although it has decreased from its peak, it remains elevated.
The EURUSD is currently breaking through the confluence point of 1.0800 and seems to have found temporary support at the 1.0780 level. It has created a new lower low, suggesting that the next target might be around the 1.0700 support level.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

The GBP/USD pair is on a two-day gaining streak, trading around 1.2620 during Tuesday's Asian session. The cautious optimism in the market led to a decline in yields on US government bonds, contributing to the upward momentum of GBP/USD. Furthermore, remarks with a hawkish tone from Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent during the Jackson Hole Symposium played a role in ending the Cable pair's four-day losing streak. Broadbent emphasized the need for policy rates to remain higher for an extended period. Investors are eagerly awaiting upcoming data releases from the US, which include JOLTS Job Openings, Housing Price Index, and Consumer Confidence. These datasets, set to be unveiled later in the day, are expected to offer valuable insights into the trajectory of the US economy.
GBP/USD is breaking the 1.2600 support level where the next target will be 1,2400. The downtrend is healthy and on a daily chart, the pair broke the 100MA.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

USD/JPY is under bearish pressure near 146.50, marking a 0.10% intraday drop in Tuesday's European session. This aligns with the Bank of Japan's shift in bias and Japan's inflation conditions. Yet, concerns about employment in Japan and cautious sentiment ahead of key data/events keep pushing the pair lower.
Unexpectedly, Japan's Unemployment Rate rose to 2.7% in July, exceeding the expected 2.5%, with the Jobs/Applicants Ratio sliding to 1.29 compared to the anticipated 1.30.
Recent reports from the Japanese government indicate a potential turning point in Japan's inflation after a 25-year deflation struggle. This supports a hawkish view on the Bank of Japan's policy.
Mixed details from Japan's June Coincident and Leading Economic Index, alongside BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium about inflation, are affecting the USD/JPY pair.
Weaker US Dollar and subdued yields are also impacting the pair's price, with US 10-year Treasury bond yields around 4.19% and the US Dollar Index at 103.85.
Goldman Sachs predicts USD/JPY to hit around 155.00 due to the US growth outlook and BoJ's stance on easy-money policy, a shift from their previous prediction of 135.00.
The focus is on upcoming Fed and BoJ monetary policies, along with risk factors, influencing USD/JPY ahead of the US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for August, expected at 116.2 versus the prior 117.00.
The pair is fighting g at the 164.50 again showing resistance at that level. The upper parallel of the bullish channel on the daily chart serves as the resistance level while the actual pattern seems more bearish than bullish. We need more development from the yields and the dollar.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) is defending its previous weekly recovery, marking the first positive movement in five weeks. This ascent over the last two days is driven by a weakening US Dollar and a sense of cautious optimism in the market. Additionally, the decline in Treasury bond yields is contributing to the rebound.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is benefiting from the Federal Reserve's data dependency stance, coupled with a mix of recent US economic data. The pullback in US Treasury bond yields from the previous week's multi-year high is also supporting the DXY's performance.
In another context, the anticipation of further stimulus from China, both through fiscal and monetary policies, is sustaining hope among gold buyers.
However, a cautious sentiment prevails ahead of upcoming US inflation and employment indicators, as well as Chinese activity data. These factors are influencing XAU/USD bulls, particularly around the critical $1,940 resistance level.
To sum up, the gold price possesses several catalysts that favor potential upward movement. Yet, the outcome hinges on factors such as the resistance at $1,940, the broader weakness of the US Dollar, and the impact of downbeat yields. These elements will determine the extent of future advances in XAU/USD.
Gold made a moderate movement upside toward the 1926 level while the next resistance level is in 1931. For gold to continue up the yields need to do a comeback. The next solid resistance level is at the 1940-45 area.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European shares began Tuesday on a positive note, led by mining stocks benefiting from higher metal prices. The pan-European STOXX 600 index gained 0.6% by 0710 GMT, marking its highest point in a fortnight.
Mining stocks rallied 1.7% (SXPP) due to rising copper prices, propelled by a weaker dollar and supportive policies from China, a major consumer of metals.
In a brief announcement on Sunday, China's finance ministry revealed a reduction in the stock trade duty to 0.1%.
NN Group saw an impressive 8.4% surge as the Dutch insurer shared improved capital positions for the first half of 2023.
Early trading also witnessed a 1.7% leap in real-estate stocks (SX86P).
London's FTSE 100 rose by 1.3% as investors returned after a public holiday. British business supplier distributor Bunzl climbed 3.5% after revising its annual adjusted operating profit forecast.
Telecom Italia experienced a 2.3% rise following Milan's approval of two decrees allowing the economy ministry to acquire up to a 20% stake in the phone group's landline grid.
DAX found support and rebounded from the 15,500 level. We entered a price range where the price is at support at 15500 and a resistance level at 16400. A breakout outside of those levels will determine more direction.
​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

The EUR/USD climbed to two-week highs at 1.0947 before retracing slightly, yet it remains comfortably above 1.0900. The overall bias favors upside movement due to the US Dollar's corrective shift. Recent US data pressured the Greenback, while Eurozone inflation hints at potential European Central Bank (ECB) tightening.
Germany's annual inflation dipped from 6.2% to 6.1% in August, staying elevated. Spain's rose from 2.3% to 2.6%, expected, and core rate above 6%. Despite the downward trend, high inflation opens the ECB tightening possibility. August saw drops in consumer and business confidence. Eurozone Consumer Price Index data comes on Thursday.
US data, released Wednesday, showed lower-than-expected private payroll growth at 177,000, versus 195,000 consensus. Q2 GDP was also revised down, impacting the dollar's correction. More data is due: Core PCE Price Index and Jobless Claims on Thursday, Nonfarm Payrolls on Friday.
Despite weak data, US fundamentals outshine the Eurozone's, possibly capping EUR/USD upside.
The EURUSD continued to rise until 1.0947, where the 100MA daily acted as a resistance level. Today, the pair is awaiting data from both economies. The next resistance could be around 1.1000, and the support is at 1.0850.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

Speaking at the Jackson Hole Symposium, BoE Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent noted the potential for policy rates to remain restrictive due to the lasting impact of surging prices. He also highlighted the prospect of the Fed pausing its rate hikes in September, which could limit downside for GBP/USD. Recent underwhelming US data has bolstered the belief in a less hawkish US central bank, evident in investor sentiments. August's ADP report indicated a mere 177K job addition, far below the previous month's revised 324K. Additionally, the US Q2 GDP growth was revised down to 2.1% annually from an initial 2.4%. These factors suggest GBP/USD might trend upward, though traders await a speech by BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill and the US Core PCE Price Index release to gauge short-term opportunities.
GBP/USD is profiting from the dollar sell-off and corrected toward the 1.2750 level and the resistance level is at the 1.2790 level. While the next support is at the 1.2650 level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

Markets are displaying caution as they anticipate the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which serves as the Federal Reserve (Fed)'s preferred measure of inflation.
In addition, Toyoaki Nakamura, a member of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) Board, commented on Thursday that policymakers require more time for a gradual shift toward monetary tightening. This statement has rekindled concerns about BoJ's stance and is putting pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair.
Turning to data, Japanese Retail Sales showed a notable increase of 6.8% YoY in July, surpassing the previous reading of 5.6% and outperforming the projected 5.4%. On a different note, the country's Industrial Production witnessed a decline of 2.0% MoM in July, reversing the 2.4% growth from the prior month. This drop contrasts with the market consensus, which had predicted a milder 1.4% decrease.
USDJPY corrected from the 147.00 resistance level and waiting for more developments in terms of data to find direction. The actual price action shows some reversal patterns but no confirmed signal.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The US Dollar (USD) is hovering near a recent two-week low, prompted by disappointing US macro data released on Wednesday. This has become a driving force behind the rise in gold prices. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) revealed that US private sector employment only increased by 177K jobs in August, significantly lower than the revised 324K from the previous month and falling short of the 195K anticipated.
Additionally, the second estimate indicated that the US economy grew at an annualized pace of 2.1% in Q2, down from the initially reported 2.4% growth. The decline in the Consumer Confidence Index from 114.0 to 106.1 in August underscores expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will halt its rate hikes in September. This is causing pressure on US Treasury bond yields, weakening the USD and benefiting gold.
Concerns about a global economic downturn also contribute to the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. However, a positive market sentiment might temper further gold gains. Traders are likely to wait for the release of the US PCE Price Index, a crucial inflation measure for the Fed, which could influence expectations about the Fed's rate decisions. Currently, markets are anticipating a 25 basis points increase by the US central bank in 2023. Given this context, unless positive inflation data emerges, the outlook supports upward movement for XAU/USD.
The bullish momentum in gold continues, pushing the price towards a new high at the 1950 level. The pair is currently awaiting more data to confirm the ongoing bullish trend. The next target is set at 1965, while the support level remains at the 1935 level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European shares opened higher on Thursday as financials received a boost from Swiss lender UBS's decision to absorb Credit Suisse's domestic bank. Investors are preparing for a barrage of key economic data scheduled for later in the day.
Shares of UBS Group (UBSG) surged 6.3%, reaching their highest level since late 2008 after the bank announced an increase in its cost savings target to more than $10 billion across the group.
The broader financial services index (.SXFP) gained 1.4%.
Investors will closely monitor a preliminary reading of Eurozone inflation, German unemployment data, and the US inflation figures. Additionally, policy meetings from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank are scheduled for next month.
Preliminary EU-harmonized official data revealed that French inflation accelerated more than anticipated in August.
Among other individual stocks, Pernod Ricard (RI) declined by 4.1% after the owner of Mumm champagne and Absolut vodka released its full-year results.
DAX received support and experienced a rebound at the 15,500 level. The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.
​

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

US Nonfarm Payrolls for August are expected to rise by 170K, down from July's 187K. This could impact future Fed policy decisions. The US Unemployment Rate is likely to remain steady at 3.5%. Traders have reduced the odds of a final interest-rate hike by the Fed this year due to a drop in US job openings. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium hinted at another rate hike this year, boosting the US Dollar. However, the probability of a November rate hike has dropped to 40% after disappointing job data.
The upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls report for August will be crucial for assessing labor market conditions. It's expected to show a gain of 170K jobs, with a steady 3.5% Unemployment Rate. Average Hourly Earnings are expected to rise by 4.4% annually.
The release of the Nonfarm Payrolls data at 12:30 GMT will impact the EUR/USD pair. A strong NFP print, and wage inflation could support the US Dollar, pushing EUR/USD lower. Conversely, weaker data could lead to a rebound in EUR/USD.
The EURUSD continued to rise until 1.0947, where the 100-day moving average (100MA) acted as a resistance level. Today, the pair is awaiting data from both economies. The next resistance could be around 1.1000, and the support is at 1.0850. Daily, the pair is influenced by the 200-day moving average (200MA) as support and the 100MA as resistance. Any breakout beyond either of these levels could lead to a significant movement in the pair.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is facing uncertainty as investors await signals from the Bank of England (BoE) regarding the future of interest rates. The GBP/USD pair is under pressure as BoE officials, such as Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent and Chief Economist Huw Pill, have cautioned that a more prolonged period of restrictive monetary policy is needed to lower the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) to the targeted 2% rate.
Investors are concerned that the UK economy may enter a recession due to the significant impact of higher interest rates on the housing sector and manufacturing activities. The UK's economic prospects have worsened because core inflation remains near its historic high, driven by labor shortages and robust wage growth. Meanwhile, the BoE is preparing to raise interest rates further in September, with an expected 25 basis point (bps) hike that would take interest rates to 5.50%.
Today's Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) announcement will be crucial in providing clear guidance for this currency pair.
GBP/USD is profiting from the Dollar sell off and corrected toward the 1.2750 level and the resistance level is at the 1.2790 level. While the next support is at the 1.2650 level.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2650	1.2600	1.2400

USDJPY

US PCE Price Index released on Thursday suggests that there could still be room for a 25-basis points interest rate hike before the year ends.
The anticipation of further tightening by the Fed has led to a modest rebound in US Treasury bond yields, supporting the US Dollar. Nevertheless, traders are cautious and are waiting for the highly anticipated US monthly employment report (NFP) later in the North American session.
Simultaneously, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) has taken a more dovish stance, coupled with disappointing Japanese economic data. This, along with positive sentiment in US equity futures, may weaken the safe-haven Japanese Yen (JPY) and limit losses for the USD/JPY pair. The BoJ remains unique in maintaining negative interest rates and is expected to continue its accommodative policies.
BoJ board member Toyoaki Nakamura recently emphasized the need to refrain from tightening monetary policy, citing that rising inflation was primarily due to higher import costs rather than wage increases. This aligns with BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's previous remarks, indicating a status quo on policy until next summer.
On the economic front, Japan's manufacturing sector continued to contract in August, with the Manufacturing PMI at 49.6. Additionally, the Finance Ministry reported a 4.5% increase in Capital Spending from the previous year, falling short of consensus estimates.
USDJPY corrected from the 147.00 resistance level and waiting for more developments in terms of Data to find direction. The actual price action shows some reversal patterns but no confirmed signal.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The Gold Price (XAU/USD) currently reflects a pre-NFP trading pause as bullish momentum rests above crucial support levels. This comes amidst uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions, with recent US economic data not favoring rate hikes, making today's US jobs report critical.
While US service inflation remains steady, weak early signals in the employment sector dampen rate hike expectations. China's measures to bolster its economy, such as the People's Bank of China's 2.0% foreign exchange reserve ratio cut and Yuan deposit rate reductions by Chinese banks, support Gold Price due to China's significant XAU/USD demand.
The broader sentiment of a potential halt in rate hikes, supported by softer inflation in top-tier economies, strengthens Gold buyers' position. Looking ahead, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings for August will provide clarity. Recent data has hinted at a dovish stance from the Fed, necessitating strong outcomes to drive Gold Price upwards.
Gold stabilized around the $1950 area, where it encountered a resistance level. The pair is presently awaiting today's data to confirm the ongoing bullish trend. The next target is set at $1965, while the support level remains at $1935.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European shares faced mixed directions on Friday. While energy and mining stocks provided some support, weak performances from German copper producer Aurubis, following a profit warning, and Volkswagen, due to a brokerage downgrade, countered these gains.
Germany's DAX index experienced a 0.2% decline as Aurubis saw an 18% slump. This occurred after Europe's largest copper producer revealed it would not meet its full-year profit expectations due to significant discrepancies in target inventories.
Conversely, the broader mining sector (SXPP) recorded a 0.7% increase, tracking a rally in most base metal prices.
In the oil and gas sector (SXEP), there was a notable 1.6% gain driven by rising crude prices, attributed to tightening supplies and expectations that the OPEC+ group of oil producers would extend output cuts until the end of the year.
Volkswagen AG's shares declined by 2.5% following a downgrade by UBS, shifting its rating from "neutral" to "sell."
Investors are closely monitoring euro zone factory activity data for August to assess the European Central Bank's stance on interest rates, with the next meeting scheduled in two weeks.
DAX received support and experienced a rebound at the 15,500 level. The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

The euro is striving to recover the 1.08 level after being influenced by the latest US jobs data. Initial fluctuations in the forex market occurred on Friday as the US unemployment rate rose, weakening the US dollar. However, a subsequent announcement of better-than-expected job numbers caused a rapid 100 basis point drop in the exchange rate The overall market outlook remains stable, with the exchange rate fluctuating between 1.0750 and 1.0950. Although sentiment is somewhat against the euro, it retains its core characteristics.
Today's highlight is President Christine Lagarde's speech, eagerly anticipated for any deviation from the ECB's recent aggressive tone, potentially impacting the euro's pressure.
The EURUSD found support at the 1.07720 level and made a double bottom in this area. The trend seems bearish and a breakout of the actual support level may take the price to the next support level at 1.0700.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

The British Pound (GBP) is aiming for a significant recovery following a sharp decline, driven by growing concerns of a worsening economic downturn. The GBP/USD pair's recovery is precarious due to the Bank of England (BoE) raising interest rates, which is impacting UK manufacturing. British companies are focusing on stabilizing their profit margins and reducing cost pressures by reducing inventories and the workforce. In the future, passing on these cost savings to consumers could help alleviate inflationary pressures on households.
Despite the increasing worries about a recession, the BoE cannot halt its policy of tightening monetary measures because the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) is nearing its highest level at 7.1%, and the drop in headline inflation is not as significant as the decline in energy prices. Meanwhile, UK Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt is confident that UK inflation, which was around 10% in January, will decrease by half by the end of the year.
GBP/USD is at the 1.2580 area support touching for the second time. The bearish trend continues and a breakout of the actual support will lead the price toward the next level at 1.2500.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2580	1.2500	1.2400

USDJPY

Earlier today, Japan's August Monetary Base data revealed a 1.2% year-on-year increase in liquidity, contrasting with the -1.3% prior figure. This aligns with market expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will support Japanese Yen (JPY) buyers, despite caution due to the US holiday affecting bond markets.
Elsewhere, positive market sentiment is driven by China's stimulus efforts and hopes for no further US Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. China's government established an entity to boost the private economy and remove barriers in the services sector. The People's Bank of China (PBoC) significantly cut its foreign exchange reserve requirement ratio (FX RRR) from 6.0% to 4.0%, effective from September 15. Chinese banks also reduced Yuan deposit interest rates, and China may take more steps to revive its property sector.
Reduced expectations of future Fed hawkishness, especially after a mixed US jobs report for August, support market optimism and weaken the USD/JPY.
US-China tensions and Moody's upward revision of US growth forecasts for 2023 weigh on USD/JPY amid a sluggish session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated, and US 10-year Treasury bond yields stand at 4.18%. Monday's US market holiday may limit USD/JPY performance, with attention on Japan's Q2 GDP and the US ISM Services PMI.
USDJPY as for other majors found support at 144.60 and coming back as JPY continues showing weakness. Continuing toward the 147.00 as resistance level continues to happen. The Dollar's strength or weakness will determine the next pair's direction.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) continues to rise, surpassing the early August swing high while maintaining support of around $1,936-38. This upward movement is driven by the weakening US Dollar, attributed to concerns over the Federal Reserve's potential policy shift and recent disappointing economic data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has halted its two-day winning streak, currently trading around 104.15.
Furthermore, China's efforts to support its economy have contributed to the XAU/USD's gains. China, a significant consumer of gold, has taken measures such as establishing a special entity to boost the private economy and reducing foreign exchange reserve requirements. Several Chinese banks have also lowered interest rates on Yuan deposits.
Additionally, the subdued performance of US Treasury bond yields in recent weeks reinforces the gold price's recovery, particularly as it holds above crucial technical support levels.
Looking ahead, a shortened trading week and US-China tensions may challenge gold buyers. However, the market focus will also be on key events like the US ISM Services PMI, China's inflation data, and potential stimulus announcements from Beijing, which could provide further opportunities for bullion traders.
Gold is currently trading around the $1950 area, where it has encountered resistance. The next target is set at $1965, while the support level remains at $1935. A correction in US yields is currently stopping gold, but any signs of a selloff could trigger a breakout for gold.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European equities are displaying optimism on Monday, following a relief rally in Asia triggered by Country Garden's agreement with creditors and expectations that China's economic stability measures will yield results.
In early trading, the pan-European benchmark STOXX 600 (SXXP) reached a more than three-week high, currently up by 0.7%. The FTSE 100 (UK100), CAC 40 (PX1), and DAX (DAX) are all showing gains in the range of 0.5% to 0.6%. US cash markets are closed today for the Labor Day holiday, with futures showing modest early gains.
In the European market, basic resource shares (.SXPP) are the top performers, reaching their highest point in four weeks. Healthcare stocks (.SXDP) are approaching a three-month peak, with Novo Nordisk (NOVO_B) solidifying its position as Europe's largest listed company after launching its weight loss drug, Wegovy, in Britain.
The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

Euro (EUR) continued to weaken against the US Dollar (USD), with EUR/USD reaching new multi-week lows near 1.0750 on Tuesday. This decline was driven by the recent drop in Caixin Services PMI data from China, indicating a slowdown in the country's services sector.
Investor preference for the safe-haven US Dollar boosted the USD Index (DXY) to fresh highs of approximately 104.50 early in the European session. This rise comes amid uncertainty surrounding US and German bond yields.
Meanwhile, market sentiment remains optimistic about the Federal Reserve's decision to halt interest rate hikes for the rest of the year. There is even speculation that interest rate cuts may not occur until March 2024.
Conversely, the European Central Bank (ECB) faces uncertainty about the future course of interest rates beyond the summer months. Discussions in the market center on the concept of stagflation, adding to the overall sense of ambiguity.
In the European schedule, the day includes the final Services PMI for August, the ECB's Consumer Expectations Survey, and speeches from Board members Eduardo Fernandez-Bollo, Isabel Schnabel, and Luis De Guindos.
The next target for EURUSD is at 1.0700 after the breakout of the 1.0750 support level.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

GBPUSD

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is under significant selling pressure, potentially revisiting a 10-week low due to the prevailing risk-averse sentiment. This downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair stems from the Bank of England's aggressive interest rate hikes, which threatens the economic outlook. Investors are concerned that continued tightening of monetary policy by central banks could trigger a global recession.
The UK economy remains vulnerable as the BoE might lag in pausing its tightening measures. Notably, the UK's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the highest among G7 nations, justifying the expectation of further rate hikes. However, UK Finance Minister Jeremy Hunt has reassured the public that the government is committed to reducing inflation to nearly 5% by year-end.
In more positive news, U.K. retail sales showed improvement in August, according to the British Retail Consortium. Total retail sales increased by 4.1% in the four weeks leading up to August 26, surpassing the three-month average growth of 3.6% and the 1% growth recorded in August 2022. It's important to note that these figures are not adjusted for inflation, which could mean that overall sales volumes may have been lower.
GBP/USD is breaking the actual support level at 1.2580 and continuation will lead the price toward the next level at 1.2500.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2580	1.2500	1.2400

JPYUSD

Japanese household spending plummeted, marking a 5.0% year-on-year drop in July, far below the expected 2.5% decline, extending a six-month decline streak. Conversely, Japanese Monetary Base data for August showed a 1.2% YoY increase compared to the previous 1.3% decrease.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a loose monetary policy but is moving away from yield curve control. BOJ Board member Toyoaki Nakamura noted the need for more time before considering monetary tightening. The divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan may temporarily limit downside pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki stated there's no visible market intervention to support the weakening yen but will closely monitor currency movements.
Following mixed economic data, market participants expect a less aggressive stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 93% chance of unchanged interest rates in September, with a 38% chance of a rate hike in November.
Upcoming events include US Factory Orders, US ISM Services PMI, and Japan's Q2 GDP release, expected to grow by 1.3%, offering trading opportunities in USD/JPY.
USDJPY Continues toward the 147.00 resistance level. The dollar strength may help the pair break the 147.00 level and continue toward the big level at 150.00.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) has continued to decline for the fourth consecutive day, despite bears struggling to dominate the market. This decline reflects cautious optimism among traders as the US returns to full market activity after a long weekend.
Several factors contribute to this trend. Concerns about China's ability to support its economic recovery, coupled with stronger US Treasury bond yields, have bolstered the US Dollar's resurgence in a sluggish session.
Furthermore, recent positive developments in the US have supported the Dollar's strength. These include upbeat US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, Moody's optimistic revision of US growth forecasts, and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta J. Mester.
Interestingly, positive news from China's leading real estate company, Country Garden, and Beijing's efforts to support economic recovery have not deterred gold sellers due to the prevailing strength of the US Dollar.
Looking ahead, market reactions to sentiment shifts, July's US Factory Orders data, and ongoing Fed concerns will be crucial in determining future price directions.
Gold corrected to come back while the support level remains at $1932. Dollar strength and yields holding higher are preventing gold from advancing more.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European shares hit one-week lows on Tuesday as economically sensitive sectors led a selloff. Concerns over slowing global growth stemmed from weak service sector data in China and the Eurozone.
The pan-European STOXX 600 index (SXXP) dropped 0.7%, marking its fifth consecutive loss. Sectors tied to China, like luxury (STXLUXP) and construction & materials (SXOP), suffered due to China's slowest service sector growth in eight months.
Additionally, the Eurozone's business activity contracted faster than expected last month. The services industry slipped into contraction, raising concerns about a potential recession. HCOB's final Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the Eurozone fell to 46.7 in August from 48.6 in July.
This has increased calls for the European Central Bank (ECB) to maintain its current policy. Money markets now estimate a 25% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike on September 14, down from 30% before the PMI data.
Consumer inflation expectations in the Eurozone rose slightly, adding to concerns about inflation falling short of the ECB's 2% target. Several brokerage downgrades, including Roche, Credit Agricole, and Commerzbank, further weighed on stocks. Retailers also declined following J.P. Morgan's downgrade due to worries about grocery price deflation.
The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

The EUR/USD pair retreated from 1.0730 after disappointing German data, struggling amid European recession concerns versus US economic hopes. Cautious sentiment prevailed ahead of Eurozone Retail Sales for July and US ISM Services PMI for August.
German Factory Orders plunged with a YoY drop of -11.7% (vs. -4.0% expected) and a monthly decline of -10.5%. Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) for July added to the gloom.
The US Dollar held its ground despite lower yields, buoyed by robust US Factory Orders, upbeat comments from Federal Reserve officials, and a hawkish stance. Concerns about China's real estate sector supported property shares, counteracting previous risk aversion.
US and European stock futures showed mild losses, while the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered near 104.80.
EURUSD found support near the 1.0700 level. A potential correction may occur after reaching this level, but the overall trend remains bearish, with more pressure on the EUR expected to continue, as the US Dollar is fundamentally stronger and leading among the major currencies.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0850	1.0800	1.0700

The Pound Sterling (GBP) has continued to lose strength, primarily due to S&P Global's report indicating a contraction in the United Kingdom's service sector. This decline is attributed to reduced demand from both households and the private sector, a consequence of the prevailing high-interest rate environment. Although the GBP/USD pair is currently showing signs of recovery from its recent 11-week low, some market participants may view this as an opportunity to sell, given the prevailing bearish sentiment in the overall market.
Moreover, the UK's economic outlook is expected to worsen further as the Bank of England (BoE) plans to raise interest rates in response to the persistently high core Consumer Price Index (CPI). Investors are anticipating a 0.25% interest rate hike from the BoE on September 21, which will result in a total interest rate of 5.50%. Additionally, investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the S&P Global Construction PMI for August.
The GBPUSD pair is currently breaching the 1.2580 support level, indicating a persistently bearish trend, with the next significant support expected at the 1.2400 level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2580	1.2500	1.2400

JPYUSD

Kanda has warned against the recent drop in the Japanese Yen (JPY) and suggested that authorities could take action if speculative currency market movements persist, negatively affecting the USD/JPY pair.
China's service sector growth has slowed to an eight-month low, raising concerns about the weakening economic conditions in the world's second-largest economy, potentially impacting Japanese exports.
US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo expects no immediate changes to US tariffs on China, contributing to renewed trade tensions between the two countries, which may reduce investor appetite for riskier assets and hinder significant corrective declines in the pair.
BoJ policymaker Hajime Takata's comments further support market expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to maintain its accommodative monetary policy due to economic uncertainty.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) hovers around 104.70, with investors increasingly accepting the likelihood of no interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, although the possibility of a 25 basis points rate hike by year-end is still considered.
Continued Fed commitment to higher interest rates supports US Treasury bond yields, benefiting the US Dollar.
Investors await US data releases, including the US ISM Services PMI for August and US S&P Global PMIs, for insights into the economic situation's impact on the USD/JPY pair.
USDJPY has surpassed the resistance level at 147.00. The existing disparity in monetary policies and the robustness of the US dollar could potentially drive the trend closer to the significant milestone of 150.00.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
150.00	147.00	145.50	144.00	142.00	140.00

XAUUSD

The gold price (XAU/USD) is rebounding from its weekly low, breaking a four-day losing streak, ahead of key US data in sluggish markets. However, XAU/USD is struggling to support recent optimism driven by Chinese property stocks and hopes for more real estate sector stimulus, as concerns about a Beijing economic slowdown and hawkish Fed statements loom.
Strong US employment and economic data reinforce the Fed's commitment to maintaining higher interest rates, bolstering the US Dollar, and weighing on gold prices. Elevated yields, a stronger US Dollar, and US-China tensions further reduce market risk appetite, pressuring XAU/USD.
In the short term, attention is on the US ISM Services PMI and final US S&P Global PMI data to confirm US growth concerns and support hawkish Fed sentiment, which could favor gold bears. Ongoing concerns about China and related developments may also impact XAU/USD traders.
Gold continues to experience a selloff, with the next support level anticipated in the 1920-10 range. Since the dollar is currently leading the Majors, and yields are rising, gold is expected to face further selloff pressure.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1940	1920	1942	1900	1875	1845

DAX40

European stocks continued their decline for a sixth consecutive session on Wednesday due to concerns about slowing global economic growth and rising crude oil prices, which are fueling inflationary worries.
Global sentiment turned negative as Brent crude prices (BRN1!) surged above $90 per barrel on Tuesday, following Saudi Arabia and Russia's decision to extend voluntary supply cuts until the end of the year, leading to concerns about persistent inflationary pressures.
Although oil prices retraced slightly, government bond yields, particularly the German 10-year yield (DE10YT=RR), surged to a two-week high at 2.65%.
Susannah Streeter, Head of Money and Markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, emphasized the role of energy prices as significant drivers of inflation and the potential disruption caused by high crude oil prices.
The pessimistic sentiment from August continued into this month, with worries about the duration of major central bank's high-interest rate policies amid indications of economic weakness in China and Europe.
Klaas Knot, a member of the ECB's governing council, cautioned that investors underestimating the possibility of a European Central Bank interest rate increase next week could be mistaken. Currently, money market futures indicate only a 33% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the ECB's September 14 meeting.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain rates in the 5.25-5.50% range later this month.
Further indicating a slowdown in economic growth, data revealed that German industrial orders fell more than anticipated in July, reversing the previous month's sharp rise, particularly in the aerospace sector.
Market sentiment worsened on Tuesday as surveys indicated a contraction in Germany's services sector for the first time this year and a larger-than-expected shrinkage in France's services sector due to weak demand.
Among individual stocks, Telefonica (TEF) saw a 2.2% increase after Saudi Arabia's STC Group (7010) acquired a 9.9% stake in the Spanish company, valued at 2.1 billion euros ($2.25 billion), making it the top shareholder.
In contrast, Vestas Wind Systems (VWS) experienced a 5.2% decline following an "underweight" rating from Barclays.
InPost (INPST) surged by 9.8% after the Polish company reported a higher quarterly core profit margin.
The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

The EUR/USD hit a recent low for the past three months but managed to stay above the 1.0700 level. The strength of the US dollar is supported by both US economic data and risk aversion sentiments. Meanwhile, Germany's industrial output continued its decline in July, which is a significant challenge for the largest economy in the Eurozone. There are concerns about the possibility of a recession as further industrial production figures for Germany are expected today.
In the US, the ISM Manufacturing PMI surpassed expectations, giving a boost to the US dollar. Following this data release, the EUR/USD reached its lowest point at 1.0702 but later recovered slightly, reaching 1.0730. The overall economic performance of the United States remains a crucial factor in the strength of the US dollar, especially in the context of prevailing risk aversion. Additionally, there are upcoming data releases in the US, including Jobless Claims and Unit Labor Cost data, scheduled for Thursday.
The selling pressure on EUR/USD persists, even though the price stability around the 1.0700 area appears to be holding. The strength of the US dollar is the primary driver behind this downward movement in major currencies followed by recession fears in other western Economies. The next support levels to watch for are approximately 1.0670, followed by 1.0600, and the historical support is located at the 1.0500 area.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0700	1.0600	1.0500

GBPUSD

The dollar remains in the lead against the pound, driven by the positive performance of the US ISM Services PMI in August, which exceeded expectations and reached a six-month high of 54.5. This data further underscores the strength of the US economy.
Conversely, the Pound Sterling (GBP) saw a decline due to the dovish comments made by Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey on Wednesday. Bailey mentioned that the BoE is nearing the conclusion of its rate-hiking cycle, adding to concerns about a potential recession alongside persistent inflationary pressures, which are putting additional downward pressure on the pound.
GBP/USD is persisting in its bearish trend, heading towards the 1.2400 support level, where the 200-day moving average (200MA) and the descending channel's lower boundary are converging, creating a point of confluence.
​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2450	1.2400	1.2300

JPYUSD

Kyodo News reported on Wednesday that the Japanese government plans to enact new economic stimulus measures in October, aiming to bolster company wage increases and reduce energy costs. Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymaker Junko Nakagawa supports maintaining an accommodating monetary policy, citing the nation's failure to achieve the BoJ's price target. The divergence in monetary policies between the US and Japan may impact the USD/JPY exchange rate.
In disappointing economic news, Japanese Household Spending for July fell by 5.0% year-on-year, missing expectations and marking the sixth consecutive monthly decline. Japan's top currency diplomat, Masato Kanda, stresses the importance of closely monitoring foreign exchange movements while keeping all options open.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is anticipated to maintain interest rates above 5% for an extended period. Fed Governor Christopher Waller believes there's room for rate increases, contingent on data, while Fed Boston President Susan Collins cautions against overly restrictive monetary policy.
US economic data indicates the ISM Services PMI for August surpassed expectations at 54.5, while the S&P Global Composite's final readings slipped slightly to 50.2. This led to the US Dollar Index (DXY) reaching a six-month high above 105.00.
Looking ahead, markets will closely monitor Japanese Q2 GDP, July's Labor Cash Earnings, and Current Account data for trading cues in the USD/JPY pair.
The USD/JPY pair continues in the same bullish direction. The only scenario that seems more probable is as the Dollar is strong, we will reach the 150 historical level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
151.50	149.00	148.00	147.30	146.50	146.00

XAUUSD

Gold price remains on the back foot for the fourth consecutive day even as the bears struggle to gain market acceptance ahead of the top-tier US data deepening global recession fears favoring US Dollar haven as developing economies are facing the wrath of higher interest rates from western central banks and potential upside risks of deflation to the Chinese economy.
US Yields also disfavoring gold attractiveness with US 10-year treasury yields reaching a 16-year high during the month, driven by speculation about a possible Fed reassessment of the US neutral rate.
Gold will be much influenced by this week's FED member speeches including more than 8 members where for the last 3 days the consensus seems divided between seeing the actual data signals a pause and others seeing more possibility of tightening until now playing negative for gold. Market pricing points to a strong likelihood that the Fed will not raise rates at its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting.
Global gold ETFs experienced a third consecutive month of net outflows in August from the last monthly report of the World Gold Council.
Gold continues the selloff as the dollar and US yields lead the scene. The next support is at the 1910 level, and a breakout of this support level will take the price toward 1900, followed by the 1885 level.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1920	1942	1931	1910	1900	1885

DAX40

European stocks experienced their seventh consecutive decline on Thursday, marking their lengthiest losing streak in over five years. This decline was attributed to two primary factors: concerns about a decelerating European economy and rising US interest rates.
Technology shares, particularly sensitive to interest rates, witnessed a nearly 1% drop as US Treasury yields surged following robust services sector data on Wednesday. This development raised worries that persistent inflation could result in prolonged higher interest rates.
In the coming weeks, market watchers will closely monitor monetary policy decisions from both the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve.
Adding to concerns about Europe's economic momentum, data revealed that German industrial production in July fell slightly more than anticipated.
However, there was a bright spot as shares of Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG) soared by 14.1%. The British motor and home insurer expressed optimism by forecasting improved operating profit for 2024.
DAX received support and experienced a rebound at the 15,500 level. The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200

 

[zForex]

EURUSD

The USD Index (DXY), which measures the US Dollar against various currencies, has retreated from its highest level since March 9. This pullback is driven by profit-taking among bullish traders ahead of the China inflation data and G20 leaders’ summit this weekend. Additionally, declining US Treasury bond yields and improved stability in equity markets have weakened the safe-haven appeal of the dollar, benefiting the EUR/USD pair. However, expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening policy further should support US bond yields and the USD.
Market sentiment suggests the possibility of another 25-bps rate hike by year-end, with the Fed expected to maintain higher interest rates. Recent data, such as the lower-than-expected US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and positive US ISM Services PMI, reinforce the view of a resilient US economy, allowing the Fed to remain hawkish. In contrast, the European Central Bank (ECB) lacks clarity on rate hikes.
Differing ECB opinions, like Peter Kazimir's support for a September rate hike and Ignazio Visco's caution, could limit significant EUR/USD gains. German inflation in August eased to 6.4%, as reported by the federal statistics office, confirming preliminary data.
EURUSD is close to the 1.0650 support level, while the DXY 105.50 target seems achievable. The Dollar retreated marginally yesterday, but the bullish trend remains intact.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.1090	1.1050	1.1000	1.0700	1.0650	1.0600

GBPUSD

On Thursday, the latest US employment data for September 1st showed Initial Jobless Claims at 216K, down from 229K previously, surpassing the expected increase of 234K. In Q2, US Unit Labor Costs rose to 2.2%, contrasting expectations of stability after the previous 1.6%. Despite this, the US Dollar (USD) remains strong, driven by a string of positive economic indicators. The US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring its performance against six major currencies, now hovers around 104.90, though slightly below Thursday's peak since April.
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to maintain high interest rates for an extended period, with a potential 25 basis point (bps) hike in November or December. This hawkish approach bolsters the USD. Conversely, the belief that the Bank of England (BoE) nears the end of its policy tightening may weigh on the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the GBP/USD pair's upside potential.
BoE Governor Andrew Bailey recently indicated that the central bank is nearing the end of its rate hikes, but he cautioned that borrowing costs could still rise due to persistent high inflation.
GBP/USD is persisting in its bearish trend, heading towards the 1.2400 support level, where the 200-day moving average (200MA) and the descending channel's lower boundary are converging, creating a point of confluence. A temporary correction is happening but the big picture still bearish for the pair.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1.3150	1.3000	1.2825	1.2450	1.2400	1.2300

JPYUSD

The Japanese Yen (JPY) weakened broadly due to a downward revision in second-quarter GDP growth, boosting the USD/JPY pair on the week's final day. Japan's economy grew at an annualized rate of 4.8% in April-June, down from the initial 6.0% estimate, revealing its fragility and ensuring the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintains its ultra-loose monetary policy.
This, coupled with stability in equity markets, diminished the JPY's safe-haven appeal, supporting the USD/JPY pair. However, concerns persist that Japanese authorities may intervene in forex markets to bolster the JPY. BoJ board member Junko Nakagawa emphasized that FX moves should align with economic and financial fundamentals.
Additionally, a slight pullback in the US Dollar (USD) from its six-month peak limited the major's gains. The USD remains strong as markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain higher rates for an extended period, with a potential 25 bps increase in 2023. This contrasts with the BoJ's dovish stance, favoring an upward trajectory for USD/JPY. Consequently, any significant corrective decline could be viewed as a buying opportunity, especially without relevant US data on Friday.
USDJPY continue the same bullish direction even if Dollar corrected yesterday. The only scenario that seems more probable is as the Dollar is strong, we will reach the 150 historical level.​

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
151.50	149.00	148.00	147.30	146.50	146.00

XAUUSD

Amid concerns about China's worsening economic conditions, Japan's second-quarter GDP growth has been revised downward, raising fears of a global economic downturn. Additionally, deteriorating US-China relations, as the world's two largest economies, are driving investors toward gold as a safe haven. China's recent directive prohibiting officials from using iPhones for work adds to the tension, following US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo's statement that US tariffs on China are unlikely to change until the US Treasury's review is complete.
These developments have left investors cautious, impacting equity markets. Furthermore, a weaker US Dollar is supporting gold prices as traders reduce their USD bullish positions. However, the Federal Reserve's commitment to a hawkish stance and maintaining higher interest rates may limit gold's upside potential.
Strong US macroeconomic data, such as the ISM Services PMI and Weekly Jobless Claims, suggests a resilient economy and supports the Fed's tightening policies, which could restrain US bond yields and the USD. Market participants are also awaiting China's inflation data and the G20 summit, adding uncertainty.
Gold found support at the 100MA on the 4-hour chart as the Dollar retraced back yesterday, but the general view is still bearish for Gold. The next support is at 1910, and a breakout of this support level will take the price toward 1900, followed by 1885.

Resistance 3	Resistance 2	Resistance 1	Support 1	Support 2	Support 3
1920	1942	1931	1910	1900	1885

DAX40

European stocks experienced a slight uptick on Friday as investors turned their attention to previously struggling luxury and technology shares. This shift came in response to a range of concerns that had affected market sentiment throughout the week, including the possibility of higher U.S. interest rates and a slowing European economy.
French luxury powerhouse LVMH saw a 0.7% rise in its stock price, recovering from earlier declines that had been driven by worries about China's economic growth.
STMicroelectronics (STM.MI) also saw a modest 0.3% increase in its stock value, bouncing back from concerns related to a chip market downturn and potential restrictions on Apple's iPhones in China.
While there was some improvement in market sentiment on Friday, the STOXX 600 was still on track for a weekly loss of approximately 0.7%. This was due to ongoing concerns about the possibility of a European economic recession and the expectation of sustained high U.S. interest rates.

Additionally, Saipem (SPM), the Italian energy services group, experienced a 1.9% increase in its stock price following the announcement of new offshore contracts valued at 850 million euros ($910.18 million).
DAX received support and experienced a rebound at the 15,500 level. The current price range encompasses support at 15,500 and resistance at 16,400. In the short term, the forecast suggests that if DAX surpasses the 16,000 mark, there's a possibility of it advancing towards 16,500, even after retracing to the 15,500 level.

Resi Level 3	Resi Level 2	Resi Level 1	Suppo level 1	Suppo level 2	Suppo level 3
16600	16400	16200	15650	15400	15200