Daily Market Analysis By zForex

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.03.2025​

Euro Rises on Ukraine Peace Talks, Dollar Weakens​

The euro rebounded to $1.04 as EU leaders prepared a Ukraine peace proposal for the U.S., supporting sentiment.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar eased as investors weighed tariff uncertainty, with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggesting possible revisions. The yen strengthened as the BOJ maintained its hawkish stance, while gold and silver saw gains amid trade and inflation concerns. Market focus now shifts to the ECB meeting, where another rate cut is expected.

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.03.2025​

GBP Drops Despite Strong Inflation and Retail Sales Data​

The British pound fell to $1.265 as February PMI data showed business activity stalled for the fourth straight month, with rising job losses from weaker sales and higher costs. Concerns over stagflation complicate the BoE’s outlook, though sterling remains up 0.5% for the week after strong inflation data. UK retail sales beat expectations, and January's budget surplus reached £15.4 billion, below the £20.3 billion forecast. GfK’s consumer confidence index stayed negative but improved across key metrics.

The first resistance level for the pair will be 1.2680. In the event of this level's breach, the next levels to watch would be 1.2720 and 1.2770. On the downside 1.2500 will be the first support level. 1.2435 and 1.2350 are the next levels to monitor if the first support level is breached.

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Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.03.2025​

Gold Gains Amid U.S. Tariff Plans and Weaker Dollar​

Gold rose above $2,860 per ounce on Monday. Trump’s planned tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China fueled safe-haven demand. The planned tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods, are set to take effect on March 4, along with an additional 10% duty on Chinese imports. Fears of retaliation and inflationary effects increased gold’s appeal, while a weaker U.S. dollar made it more attractive for foreign buyers. Growing concerns over the U.S. economy also reinforced expectations of Fed rate cuts, adding to gold’s strength as a non-yielding asset.

Key resistance stands at $2,880, with further levels at $2,917 and $2,949. Support is at $2,830, followed by $2,790 and $2,760.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.04.2025​

EUR/USD Rises on Fiscal Spending, Yen Nears 149​

EUR/USD rose to 1.047 on optimism over a Ukraine peace deal and European fiscal spending, though gains were capped ahead of the U.S. jobs report.

The Japanese yen strengthened toward 149 per dollar while the BOJ is expected to maintain rate hikes. Gold held at $2,880 per ounce, supported by trade war concerns and weak U.S. factory data. GBP/USD surpassed $1.27, driven by UK-Ukraine support and hopes of a U.S.-UK trade deal. Silver also gained, climbing above $31.6 per ounce.

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.04.2025​

Ukraine and Spending Lift EUR/USD​

EUR/USD rose to 1.047, supported by optimism over a Ukraine peace deal and increased European fiscal spending. The dollar weakened due to Fed rate cut expectations with U.S. economic concerns and a sharper manufacturing slowdown.

Gains were limited as traders awaited Friday’s non-farm payrolls report for labor market signals. A weak report could boost Fed cut bets, pressuring the dollar and lifting EUR/USD, while strong data may cap gains. Geopolitical developments and potential ECB policy shifts also remain key.

Key resistance is at 1.0530, followed by 1.0600 and 1.0660. Support stands at 1.0450, with further levels at 1.0350 and 1.0275.

USD/JPY Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.04.2025​

Yen Strengthens, BOJ Normalization in Focus​

The Japanese yen strengthened toward 149 per dollar, nearing a five-month high. Trump confirmed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% duty on Chinese goods.

The yen also gained on weak U.S. data, increasing Fed rate cut expectations, while the BOJ is predicted to continue rate hikes amid strong economic conditions. However, Japan’s unemployment rate rose to 2.5% in January from 2.4%, and Q4 capital spending declined.

Key resistance is at 154.90, with further levels at 156.00 and 157.00. Support stands at 148.60, followed by 147.10 and 145.80.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.05.2025​

Dollar Weakness and Trade Fears Shape Markets​

EUR/USD surged 1.4% as the dollar weakened, while the yen fell despite hawkish BOJ remarks.

Gold dipped below $2,910 due to rising U.S. Treasury yields but remained supported. The British pound climbed to $1.2795 as the Bank of England signaled a cautious approach to rate cuts. Meanwhile, silver gained 0.5%, driven by trade uncertainties and a weaker dollar. Traders now focus on the ECB decision and U.S. jobs data for further market direction.

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.05.2025​

EUR/USD Soars, Eyes ECB and NFP​

EUR/USD surged 1.4% on Tuesday, gaining 140 pips as the US Dollar weakened on speculation that Trump may reverse his tariff stance. Despite imposing 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports at midnight EST, he hinted at a possible adjustment. Early risk aversion faded as markets bet on a policy shift, with Commerce Secretary Lutnick suggesting Trump could announce changes on Wednesday.

With limited European data midweek, the focus shifts to Thursday’s ECB policy decision and Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. The NFP is key amid trade war concerns, while Wednesday’s ADP Employment Change (forecast: 140K vs. previous 183K) and ISM Services PMI (expected 52.6 vs. 52.8) will provide early signals. The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, lowering the Main Refinancing Rate to 2.65% and the Deposit Facility Rate to 2.5% to counter recession risks.

Key resistance is at 1.0660, followed by 1.0690 and 1.0810. Support stands at 1.0520, with further levels at 1.0450 and 1.0350.

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.05.2025​

Pound Rises on Cautious BOE Stance​

The British pound climbed to $1.2795 as the Bank of England maintained a cautious approach to monetary policy. While inflation risks are not an immediate concern, strong UK wage growth continues to support inflationary pressures, suggesting that any rate cuts will be gradual. Despite a February rate cut, Q4 growth, high December wages, and strong January CPI indicate that policymakers may lean more hawkish in the coming months.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2835, the next resistance levels are 1.2920 and 1.2980. On the downside, support stands at 1.2760, with further levels at 1.2660 and 1.2600 if selling pressure increases.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.06.2025​

Euro Rises on EU Defense Plan & Gold Gains on Trade Uncertainty​

The euro surged to a four-month high as the EU proposed an €800 billion defense plan, increasing investor confidence.

Meanwhile, gold neared record highs amid U.S. tariff uncertainty and a weaker dollar. The yen remained steady on growing BOJ rate hike expectations, while the pound gained on a strong UK rate outlook. The market focus now shifts to the upcoming ECB meeting and the U.S. nonfarm payroll report.

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.06.2025​

ECB Rate Cut Expected as EU Unveils €800B Defense Plan​

The euro neared $1.08, a four-month high, as increased defense spending and borrowing strengthened Eurozone optimism. Germany’s CDU/CSU and SPD agreed to exceed 1% of GDP in defense spending and create a €500 billion off-budget fund. EU plans to mobilize €800 billion for defense, with €150 billion in loans and more fiscal flexibility. The ECB is expected to cut rates for the fifth time this week.

Key resistance is at 1.0840, followed by 1.0900 and 1.0950. Support stands at 1.0760, with further levels at 1.0700 and 1.0650.

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.06.2025​

Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Gold Amid US Tariff Uncertainty​

Gold rose above $2,920 per ounce, nearing record highs, as a weaker dollar and trade uncertainty drove safe-haven demand. Trump granted US automakers a one-month exemption from 25% Canada-Mexico tariffs and hinted at more changes. A US official suggested lifting the 10% tariff on Canadian energy if trade conditions are met. Meanwhile, China filed a revised WTO complaint in response to new US tariffs. Investors await the non-farm payrolls report for Fed policy signals.

Key resistance stands at $2,923, with further levels at $2,955 and $3,000. Support is at $2,860, followed by $2,830 and $2,790.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.07.2025​

Euro Gains Post-ECB, Yen Holds Firm​

The euro surged above $1.08 after the ECB's 25bps rate cut, while the yen held strong at 149 per dollar as the dollar weakened.

Gold remained around $2,900 with tariff uncertainty and mixed U.S. labor data. GBP/USD traded near 1.2880, awaiting the NFP report, while silver extended its rally past $32, driven by a weaker dollar and trade concerns.

GBP/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.07.2025​

GBP/USD at 1.2880, Awaits NFP Report​

GBP/USD holds modest gains around 1.2880 in Friday’s Asian session, recovering from the previous decline as investors await the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) extends its five-day decline, pressured by falling Treasury yields, with the 2-year at 3.94% and the 10-year at 4.24%. Markets increasingly expect the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive rate-cutting stance due to economic growth concerns.

Analysts at MUFG Bank suggest the Fed may shift focus from inflation control to economic growth, especially amid tariff uncertainties. Consumer confidence has weakened, reflecting rising household concerns.

In the UK, expectations for BoE rate cuts in 2025 have dropped below 50 basis points. BoE’s Catherine Mann stated that gradual rate changes are ineffective in volatile markets, advocating for larger cuts to provide clearer policy signals.

If GBP/USD breaks above 1.2920, the next resistance levels are 1.2980 and 1.3050. On the downside, support stands at 1.2860, with further levels at 1.2760 and 1.2660 if selling pressure increases.

Yen Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.07.2025​

Yen Benefits from Dollar's Broad Retreat​

The Japanese yen held around 149 per dollar, its strongest in five months, benefiting from the dollar’s decline on a stronger euro and Trump’s tariff policies. His selective tariff exemptions and retaliatory measures weakened the dollar further.

Domestically, BOJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida suggested possible rate hikes if economic projections align but emphasized that Japan’s monetary conditions remain highly accommodative, with only minimal reductions in government bond holdings.

Key resistance is at 152.00, with further levels at 154.90 and 156.00. Support stands at 147.10, followed by 145.80 and 143.00.

 

[zForex]

Daily Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.10.2025​

Gold Awaits NFP, Yen Hits Five-Month High​

EUR/USD rose on US slowdown concerns and German fiscal reforms, while the yen strengthened past 148.
Gold remained steady at around $2,900 with mixed US labor data. GBP/USD climbed near a four-month high, supported by weak US jobs data and expectations of a gradual BoE rate path. Meanwhile, silver declined for a third session, pressured by weak Chinese inflation data but supported by rising trade tensions.

EUR/USD Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.10.2025​

Eurozone Optimism Drives EUR/USD​

EUR/USD started the week on a positive note, trading around 1.0860 in Monday’s Asian session, driven by concerns over a potential US economic slowdown. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly warned that rising business uncertainty could weaken demand but saw no immediate need for rate changes.

On Friday, US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 151,000 in February, below the expected 160,000, with January’s job growth revised down to 125,000. Weak labor data could pressure the US Dollar, supporting EUR/USD.

Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will take effect Wednesday. While US steelmakers back the tariffs, higher material costs could impact businesses, potentially limiting EUR/USD gains.

The Euro found support from Germany’s proposed fiscal reforms, including revisions to the debt brake and a €500 billion infrastructure plan. Additionally, European leaders agreed to promote defense spending. The ECB’s predicted 25bps rate cut signaled a shift toward a less restrictive policy, with markets expecting one or two more cuts this year.

Key resistance is at 1.0850, followed by 1.0900 and 1.0950. Support stands at 1.0730, with further levels at 1.0700 and 1.0650.

Gold Analysis By zForex Research Team - 03.10.2025​

Gold Steady on Trade and Labor Data​

Gold hovered around $2,900 per ounce, set for a weekly gain. While Trump temporarily paused 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain, and China’s countermeasures take effect next week.

U.S. labor data showed mixed signals as layoffs hit a 2020 high per the Challenger report, while jobless claims fell more than expected. Investors now await the non-farm payrolls report for further labor market insights and potential Fed policy impact.

Key resistance stands at $2,923, with further levels at $2,955 and $3,000. Support is at $2,860, followed by $2,830 and $2,790.